Week 6 Predictions

      Welcome to October football fans as we kickoff Week 6 with conference play in full swing. This post will highlight all the games to know about this weekend along with my predictions and thoughts on what teams need to do to win. We'll dive right in so you can enjoy your College Football Saturday!

Week 5 Results: 17 - 2

Overall Results: 80 - 31

Week 6 Predictions:

#14 Iowa State at Cincinnati

     One of the first games of the day gives us a very intriguing Big XII matchup between Iowa State and Cincinnati. The Bearcats have been on a tear since falling to Nebraska in the opener, and it's all from QB Brenden Sorsby. Other than his interception to Malcom Hartzog Jr., he's accounted for nearly 1,300 total yards and 14 TDs this season. Iowa State will have their hands full defensively, especially with his dual threat ability. Luckily for the Cyclones, Sorsby doesn't have the most notable supporting cast. Iowa State is in a similar boat offensively though, as most of their offense runs through QB Rocco Becht. The Junior has 12 total TDs to his name with 2 picks on the year. The keys to watch in this game are who will step up to help their QB with a big play, and which defense is going to contain the scramble and QB runs the best. Cincy did a great job of that last week against Kansas with Jalon Daniels, and Iowa State showed that ability in the season opener against Avery Johnson and K-State back in Dublin. This will be a very fun game to watch, but I've got Iowa State in a close one. Cyclones beat the Bearcats 30-27.

Wisconsin at #20 Michigan

     Life in Mad-town has gotten a little hot for Luke Fickell, especially under his office chair. The third-year Badger coach heads into the Big House without his starting center and QB while donning a 2-2 record coming off the BYE week. Last time out we saw Wisconsin get stomped by Maryland at home and this team really doesn't have much identity. Michigan beat my Huskers in Memorial before going on their BYE week and now have Head Coach Sherrone Moore back on the sidelines after his two game suspension. The Wolverines have a fantastic rushing attack led by Junior RB Justice Haynes. Having watched him in person against my Huskers, he is a very difficult back to slow down. When given space, he's got break away speed, already racking up a couple of 75 yard TD runs. QB Bryce Underwood still has a lot of growing to do, especially in the passing game, but he's fit into this offense well early in his career. If Wisconsin takes my game plan that the Huskers ignored (sell out to stop the run and make Underwood beat you with the passing game), then they have a shot. But Michigan's rushing attack is nearly impossible to shut down right now. Wolverines beat the Badgers 33-14.

#22 Illinois at Purdue (Battle for the Purdue Cannon)

     The Fighting Illini bounced back quickly after their throttling from Indiana a couple of weeks ago, but fending off the Trojans and knocking off USC 34-32 at home. Now they travel to BIG 10 rival Purdue, and luckily they have history on their side. There is only 1 team in FBS that has lost every single game following the release of a Taylor Swift album, the Purdue Boilermakers. They have shown great improvement under new HC Barry Odom, but a Swifty Curse is not something to mess with. Statistically, Purdue actually ranks ahead of Illinois by a few spots in both total offense and defense, but my key factor for the game is QB Luke Altmyer. The Senior has 11 passing TDs with 0 interceptions through 5 games and does a great job ensuring he's making the right throws. If he keeps playing this way and takes care of the football, then Illinois should be victorious in this one. Fighting Illini 31, Boilermakers 24.

Kansas State at Baylor

     A Big XII battle that should look like old times, lot of points and little defense. K-State and Baylor are now the old heads of the conference, and with a 1-1 conference record early on, this is a big game to get back in the right direction. Kansas State is starting to find their footing after a brutal looking 1-3 start to the season. Their dynamic rushing attack has stumbled to 94th in the nation and defensively they rank 73rd in the nation, but 36th in defending the pass. Not a typical defense from the Wildcats, and they'll have their hands full with Sawyer Robertson slinging it on the other side. The Baylor gunslinger leads the nation in passing with 1,713 yards and 17 TDs with just 3 picks. He's been shredding opposing defenses all season and the two losses are close ones to Auburn and Arizona State. I still have the Bears in the mix for the Big XII title, but this is a must-win game to get back in the right direction. Sic 'Em for a 33-28 win.

#9 Texas at Florida

     Arch Manning travels to the Swamp and everyone is waiting to see how he handles another tough road environment after a sluggish start to the season. The Longhorns have not done much offensively behind Arch (as I predicted) to start 2025, but Florida is one of the few teams that has done less on offense. DJ Lagway and the Gators rank 116th in total offense and 102nd in scoring offense. Pressure is building for Billy Napier, and while his defense has kept them in games, his play-calling and lack of development of the offense have severely hurt Florida's ability to compete. I do think Arch Manning will be challenged again and this defense has made a number of "top tier" QBs look mediocre for a day. This will be a defensive battle all the way through as the Longhorns rank 4th in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense. Neither QB will look great, but Texas wins 23-14.

#16 Vanderbilt at #10 Alabama

     One of the biggest games of the day sets up a revenge opportunity as the Crimson Tide host the Commodores. Vanderbilt pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the history of College Football last season by beating Bama, and Vandy's star QB Diego Pavia says that's old hat, but they're going to do it again. Pavia is an absolutely sensational player and has done nothing short of miracles in Nashville, bringing Vanderbilt to a competitive level never before seen in this conference. But this year Alabama knows they're coming. They know what types of things to expect from the Commodores, and they're looking for revenge. Alabama doesn't often make the same mistake twice, and their win at Georgia last week was in control from wire to wire. QB Ty Simpson has been very impressive, throwing for 1,138 and 11 TDs on the season with 0 interceptions. If he can keep ahold of the rock, Bama's offense has been difficult to slow down. I never want to pick against Diego Pavia, because he does nothing but prove people wrong. However, Bama sees them coming and knows that if they lose to Vandy in back-to-back seasons, there will be some serious hell to break loose in T-Town. I'll be rooting for the Commodores, but my head says to pick Alabama at home. Roll Tide (cautiously) as they win a rugged one 34-28.

Boise State at #21 Notre Dame

     The Broncos have gotten back on track since getting throttled in the season opener at USF, but now have to travel to South Bend, IN to take on the Irish. Notre Dame is rolling the last couple weeks after two close losses to Miami and Texas A&M to start the season. They've dropped 112 points over the last two weeks on Purdue and Arkansas while racking up 464 rushing yards in those two games. Boise State 83rd in rush defense so far this year, so it could be a long afternoon for the Broncos. The Irish don't have much defense of their own though, and Boise State QB Maddux Madsen already has 1,129 yards with 9 TDs to just 1 pick on the season. Not sure Boise can pull the upset, but they can certainly put up points in this one. Notre Dame 40, Boise State 27.

#24 Virginia at Louisville

     The Cavaliers pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season last week by beating Florida State in double overtime and executing one of the best field storms in sports history. They have been playing very well all season and could easily be 5-0 if not for their close loss to NC State. They now go on the road to a dangerous Cardinals team who is unbeaten, but loves to live on the edge, having been down 17-0 at Pitt last week before winning 34-27. Both teams are led by fantastic QBs with a lot of experience. Chandler Morris and Miller Moss both fill up the stat sheet through the air, and this one should be a shootout. I've been on the Virginia train all year, but this feels like a spot for a let down. Road game against a good opponent after a big upset win? Certainly a tricky spot, but they if they win, the schedule is very easy moving forward. I'll stay on the Cavalier train and say they make a statement on the road. I haven't seen enough consistency from Louisville and the Cavaliers win 36-33.

Washington at Maryland

     An interesting battle in the BIG 10 has the Huskies traveling cross country to College Park, Maryland and taking on the Terps. Both teams feature dynamic, dual-threat QBs with Sophomore Demond Williams Jr. (Washington) and Freshman Malik Washington (Maryland). Starting with Williams, he was safe and efficient against Ohio State, but couldn't break through the defense for a big play. Malik Washington has been all about the big plays, throwing for a new career long each week. The Terps had a week to rest following their beat down on the Badgers in Madison, so they're fresh while playing at home. Washington has to travel across 3 timezones, but it's always easier traveling East than it is to travel West. I liked what I saw from the Dubs against Ohio State, despite not putting up many points. I'm not sure how good Maryland is yet, so I'll take the Huskies on the road. This is an interesting one to watch with Nebraska traveling to Maryland next Saturday, so hopefully Washington can rough them up a bit with a 27-21 win.

#11 Texas Tech at Houston

     The Red Raiders made a statement win against Utah on the road a couple of weeks ago by winning 34-10 in Salt Lake City. QB Behren Morten took a hit late in that game, but has been working on his slide over the BYE week and is back in the line up for today. Houston is unbeaten at 4-0, but has not looked great this season and needed a late comeback, a blocked kick and an overtime win to beat Oregon State on the road. The Cougars do rank 11th in pass defense though, so Texas Tech will be tested offensively. I expect them to execute well as they did in Utah, but the true statement will be made by their defense. The Red Raiders have 10 sacks in their 4 games with a +4 turnover margin. Wreck 'Em for a 35-14 win.

Minnesota at #1 Ohio State

     The Golden Gophers are led by Freshman QB Drake Lindsey as they stroll into the Horseshoe at 3-1. They rallied for a comeback at home against Rutgers last week, but now have to deal with the top ranked scoring defense in the nation. Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin has looked very comfortable leading the offense, throwing for 10 TDs with 3 picks on the season. It's helpful to lean on WR Jeremiah Smith, who has nearly 400 yards with 4 TDs on the season. I'm not convinced Minnesota will be ready defensively to slow down Ohio State all game, and even if they get a few stops, I don't know if they'll be able to score against the brick wall that is the Ohio State defensive front. Buckeyes win at home 38-14.

#3 Miami at #18 Florida State

     The 'Noles blew their College Gameday opportunity by losing to Virginia in double overtime last week, but have a big statement game with #3 Miami coming to Tallahassee. The Hurricanes are well rested off the BYE and have been dominating in the trenches this season. Carson Beck is not my favorite of QBs around the nation, but he looks very comfortable in this system and has some fantastic weapons around him. Most importantly, the run game has been rolling with Fletcher and Brown combining for 594 yards and 9 TDs so far this season. Defensively, the Hurricanes have been suffocating, giving up just 11.5 points per game and 244.5 yards per game on average. Florida State's offense is led by transfer QB Tommy Castellanos, who has them ranked 1st in the nation with 600 yards of offense per game. Defensively they need to load the box and shut down the run, giving them pressure opportunities against Carson Beck. That will be tough against an offensive line allowing just 5 sacks all season. It will be fun to see both teams with a big test tonight, but I trust Miami a bit more than I do with FSU right now, so give me the 'Canes in a thrilling 31-27 victory.

Mississippi State at #6 Texas A&M

     The Bulldogs nearly pulled the upset against Tennessee at home last week, and will likely ruin someone's season in the SEC. However, can they do it on the road against the Aggies? Texas A&M is very quietly stepping into the thick of their schedule with games against LSU and Missouri lurking on the road later this month. Marcel Reed has looked good in his second year as the starter, posting a 9:2 TD to INT ratio, while also adding a TD on the ground. The Aggies have struggled on converting 3rd downs this season, ranking 126th with a conversion rate of 30.61%. The Bulldogs rank 32nd in the nation, so this will be an interesting matchup to watch if Mississippi State can keep Texas A&M behind the chains. Blake Shapen has been sharp this season, throwing for over 1,000 yards with 8 TDs and 3 picks for the Bulldogs. If he can find some openings in a tough Aggie defense, this could be a game with upset watch potential. I like watching this Bulldog team a lot, but I think their season spoiling wins come a bit later in the year. Texas A&M holds them off at home to win 30-21.

Duke at Cal

     The Blue Devils go coast to coast with the Golden Bears waiting for a late night kick. Cal pulled off a tough road win at Boston College, but were shutout just a couple weeks ago on the road at San Diego State. Freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been very impressive in the early part of this season, throwing for 1,242 yards with 8 TDs and 4 picks. He'll be squaring off against a very dynamic QB on the side of Duke in Darian Mensah. The Sophomore Tulane transfer was one of the big offseason NIL deals made by Duke and he's proven why with 1,573 yards with 13 TDs and 2 interceptions. Both of these teams have two sides to them, so I'm curious to see which of them show out. One of my new rules in College Football will be tested here as it is very difficult to travel west, especially for a late night kick. I don't like teams having to play on midnight body clocks, so give me the Golden Bears for the win at home 31-28.

Michigan State at Nebraska

     The Huskers have sat on their loss to Michigan for two weeks with the BYE and now host the Spartans for a Homecoming BIG 10 battle. Sparty has a very dynamic offense, led by QB Aiden Chiles. He's really stepped up his game in year two with the green jersey, throwing for 868 yards with 9 TDs and just 1 pick. He's also added a couple of TDs on the ground and Nebraska always struggles with dual-threat QBs. Defensively, the Blackshirts need to tackle well as Sparty backs don't go down easy. Luckily for the Huskers, Michigan State's pass defense ranks 118th in the nation, so Dylan Raiola and his crew of wideouts have a big opportunity in front of them. There are 30+ mph wind gusts expected though, so look for a lot of underneath throws and getting guys in space. I would love to see Jacory Barney Jr. get open with some screens and set Lindenmeyer, Hunter and Key out front to block in space. There are certainly opportunities for points, but Nebraska needs to take care of the football. Emmett Johnson should set the pace running the ball, but in 3rd and medium or more distances, the oline needs to protect Raiola as Michigan State likes to bring unique blitzes. I like the Huskers to bounce back at home in this one, and I'll take Nebraska 34-27. GO BIG RED!

Quick Hit Predictions:

Kentucky at #12 Georgia - The Bulldogs at home in a bounce back game following the Bama loss, especially with Kentucky struggling at the QB position. UK RB Seth McGowan is one to watch with 7 TDs on the season, but Georgia wins this 28-10.

Boston College at Pitt - The Panthers are starting a new QB today as they host Boston College. Both of these teams have multiple close losses on the season already, so expect a close game. A new QB can always spark an offense, but Pitt really can't run the ball. Give me BC on the road for a 38-36 win.

Clemson at North Carolina - Two championship coaches due battle in the ACC as Dabo Swinney and Bill Belichick square off with Clemson and North Carolina. What was originally thought to be a primetime game quickly turned into a lack-luster matchup as both teams have struggled in the early part of the season. I think Clemson will just out-talent UNC, but this won't be a pretty game to watch. Tigers 28, Tar Heels 10.

Syracuse at SMU - The 'Cuse were demolished by Duke in their first game without QB Steve Angeli, and now travel to Dallas to take on an SMU squad that has been sitting with their TCU loss for two weeks. I love both of these coaches with Fran Brown and Rhett Lashlee, but I'll take the Ponies at home 34-17. Without a QB, there's not enough firepower with the Orange.

Colorado at TCU - The game that started Deion's Colorado coaching career was a win at TCU following their national title appearance. The Buffs now return to Fort Worth with a number of issues, especially on defense where they're allowing more than 80% of opponent redzone trips to result in points. The Horned Frogs average 37.3 points per game and should have a similar total today. TCU wins 38-21.

Kansas at UCF - Both the Knights and the Jayhawks suffered their first Big XII loss of the season last week, so a bounce back game is set in Orlando today. Watching Scott Frost lose will forever bring me joy after what he did at Nebraska as a Coach, so give me Jalon Daniels to put up video game numbers as we Rock Chalk with the Jayhawks winning 40-31.

Thanks for reading my Week 6 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday!

Homecoming RLD Presentations with my Ambassadors Elise & Izzy!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Week 5 Predictions

     Hello football fans and welcome to Week 5 of College Football! It's been a busy week with different CFB news updates including the mid-week firing of Mike Gundy from Oklahoma State and the hand surgery for Oklahoma QB John Mateer which will keep him out for a few weeks. All that leads into a LOADED week 5 slate of games, but first I'll recap my thoughts on the Huskers' home loss to Michigan. I certainly had to let my emotions settle after that game, but overall there's a lot of season and opportunity left for Nebraska. This post will start with my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD break down for the Huskers and then roll into my Week 5 Predictions. Enjoy!

     Nebraska fell to Michigan 30-27 at home last Saturday as the Wolverines racked up 286 yards rushing and held the Huskers to just 43 yards on the ground. Michigan added 7 sacks defensively and held strong as the Huskers had multiple trips to the redzone that ended in fewer than 7 points, sometimes 0. I've had a number of thoughts on the game, but after a few days of reflection, here's what I've settled on. This is one of the losses I originally had predicted at the beginning of the season, and despite the frustrations with missing the opportunities to win this game, this is a somewhat expected outcome given the talent differential, especially in the trenches. It would be nice to see Nebraska take the next step in these big games, but we'll have to wait a bit longer in the season to see it.

GOOD - Jacory Barney Jr. and the House Rhules Podcast. Starting with one we can all agree on, Jacory Barney Jr. is an absolute DAWG! The sophomore finished the game leading Nebraska in receiving with 6 catches for 120 yards and 2 TDs including the fantastic Hail Mary catch in a very crowded mess of players. At just 6'0 and 170 lbs. Barney has quickly shown he's a very aggressive receiver when the ball is in the air. As a receivers coach myself, this is great to see. I expect more passes his way as he continues to develop in the offense. Now for the controversial piece of my analysis, Matt Rhule's podcast. I've heard and seen comments of a number of people complaining that he should be focused more on football and the podcasts is wasting time, especially when you lose to a conference opponent at home while leaving points on the field. I understand that it may look like he's spreading himself thin with the Pat McAfee show and hosting weekly episodes of House Rhules, but this is the modern age of College Football. Matt Rhule is marketing Nebraska in so many new ways to make sure the Huskers stay relevant in the conversation, despite the on-field struggles of the past decade plus. The show is a unique look inside the Head Coaches role with a Division 1 program, and is a great look for Husker Football as he continues to build up to a place where Nebraska is competing for Playoff spots. I love the content and the vulnerability the show brings, and despite the frustrations with the loss and potential future losses, this is a great way to share Nebraska's story. Keep the content coming!

EXPECTED - Dylan Raiola's strong performance with some rough spots. It's hard to remember sometimes that he's played only 18 games of college football, and 7 of those with his current OC. Raiola certainly had some head scratching moments in the game against the Wolverines, but if you take a step back, he threw for 308 yards, 3 TDs and completed 73.2% of his passes last Saturday. He currently ranks 3rd in the nation with 75.6% completion rating on the year and has been making some very smart throws throughout the season. I am a bit concerned about his pocket awareness as a few of those sacks I blame on holding the ball too long, but this is a QB who is clearly taking steps in the right direction to be elite. I'd like to see Dylan develop a better understanding of pre-snap and post-snap coverage analysis, but I strongly believe the Husker offense is trending in the right direction with him under center.

BAD - The Trenches. As highlighted by the stats shared earlier, Nebraska has some serious issues to address on the line of scrimmage. Starting with the defensive front 7, I explained my concerns with this unit ahead of the season, and those concerns are now fears for what BIG 10 play could look like. Some things are inflated by the long runs from Michigan, but from watching this game I'm not sure the defensive front will be much of a force in stopping the run right now. Michigan's Oline washed away Nebraska at the line of scrimmage and created massive rushing lanes. The Blackshirts also have just 6 sacks on the season, but only 2.5 of those coming from the defensive line. Certainly will need a lot of growth from this unit quickly as BIG 10 play picks up. On the other side of the ball, the Husker Oline is not in good shape and giving up 7 sacks to Michigan highlighted problems quickly. Left tackle is a rotating door at the moment, Gunnar Gottula was beat nearly every play, Ellijah Pritchard has no clue what his assignments are and Turner Corcoran has never been in my good graces for his play. I do think Dylan needs to get rid of the ball quicker, but the Husker Oline was not protecting well and on run plays they were stood up immediately. This unit needs to step up to help protect Raiola and get rushing lanes for Emmett Johnson.

Week 4 Results: 13 - 10

Overall Results: 63 - 29

Week 5 Predictions:

#21 USC at #23 Illinois

     The Trojans travel east as they take on the Fightin' Illini in the heart of BIG 10 country as this game takes place in Champagne, IL. There wasn't much fight in the Illini last week as they let Indiana roll 63 points on them, and now return home to a fiery USC squad. I had Illinois as my dark horse team to make the playoffs and potentially find their way into the BIG 10 Championship with a favorable schedule. Now I'm wondering if they are capable of any upsets because they looked rough last week. Defensively, they are playing without a number of key players in the secondary, allowing Lincoln Riley and the Trojans to draw up a spicy air raid game plan. Junior QB Jayden Maiava has thrown for 1,223 yards with 9 TDs and 0 interceptions. He's added another 4 TDs on the ground and his favorite target, Makai Lemon has 24 catches for 438 yards and 3 of those passing TDs. Defensively the Trojans are a bit vulnerable, but they're playing at a much higher clip than traditional Lincoln Riley team. This one could get high-scoring if the Illinois offense gets back on track, but with the issues on defense highlighted last week, I've got the Trojans winning 38-28. Fight On!

#22 Notre Dame at Arkansas

     The Irish travel to Fayetteville as both teams look to turn this season around after rough starts. Neither team has showed much defense, and the Irish are a bit banged up in the secondary. Offensively, these teams do well in putting up points, but their stars do it in different ways. Starting with the Hogs, QB Taylen Green is a dangerous dual-threat QB who is completing a career best 64.3% of his passes this season for 1,191 yards with 12 TDs and 4 picks. He's added another 360 yards on the ground with 2 more TDs as he averages 8.2 yards per carry. Notre Dame has done fairly well stopping the run, but the secondary has ben shredded, currently ranking 132nd in the nation. They will look to counter Arkansas' air attack with a ground and pound strategy from Jeremiyah Love. The Junior has just 3 TDs thus far on the season, but averages 5.5 yards per carry and should have a big day against the Hogs' 87th ranked rush defense. Give me Notre Dame on the road behind a big performance from Love for a 28-24 win.

Duke at Syracuse

     The Orange beat down Clemson 34-21 last week while the Blue Devils pulled away from NC State in the second half for a 45-33 win. Both teams are very much in the mix for ACC Championship game runs, but there's a lot of season left to decide things. Unfortunately for the 'Cuse, starting QB Steve Angeli who has thrown for over l,300 yards with 10 TDs and 2 picks suffered a torn achilles and will miss the remainder of the season. Sophomore Rickie Collins will take the reigns of the offense and he'll look to out-duel Duke's start QB Darian Mensah. Syracuse's HC Fran Brown is always going to have his team ready, no matter what the circumstances, but without your starting QB this is a tough matchup. I'm very torn as I hate picking against Fran Brown, but I'll take Duke in a close one. Looking for Syracuse to prove me wrong with some extra grit, but Duke 30, Syracuse 27.

#1 Ohio State at Washington

     The Buckeyes have their first road test of the season and it's a tough one as they travel across the country to Seattle to take on the Huskies of Washington. Jedd Fisch has the dubs with a 3-0 record to start the season and Sophomore QB Demond Williams Jr. has been a big part of that. He's accounted for 998 total yards and 8 TDs through the first few weeks and will look to add to those stats against the viscous Buckeye defense. Ohio State ranks 10th in total defense, but the Huskies aren't far behind at 23rd. The Buckeyes have a young QB of their own in Julian Sayin, facing his first road test. Luckily he's got a fantastic set of weapons to rely on with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate on the outside and 3 different RBs rotating through the backfield. I think the Buckeyes will prevail with their talent, especially on defense, but enjoy watching Demond Williams Jr. for the Huskies because they will be dangerous in the conference this year. Ohio State 30, Washington 20.

#4 LSU at #13 Ole Miss

     There's a little extra spice to this rivalry as Landry Kiffin, daughter of Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin hard launched her relationship with LSU Linebacker Whit Weeks with a photo on social media, prompting her dad to comment "bet the over". Similar to Dan Lanning and Curt Cignetti, don't think for a minute that Lane Kiffin won't run up the score if he gets the chance. That won't be easy with LSU's 9th ranked scoring defense, but with Trinidad Chambliss at QB, the Rebels have a little extra spice. In his two games against Arkansas and Tulane, he's completed 67.9 % of his passes for 660 yards with 3 TDs and another 174 and 2 TDs on the ground. LSU hasn't faced a QB with this much spunk on the season, and if their offense can't get into gear, this defense will get tired trying to chase down Chambliss and the Rebels. For the Tigers' offense, the run game has been very slow going as they rank 112th in the nation. QB Garrett Nussmeier is used to shouldering the load as LSU has attempted the 15th most passes this season through just 4 games. It should be a fun one down in the grove, but with the extra incentives I've got Ole Miss with the big win at home. Rebels beat the Tigers 36-31.

Auburn at #9 Texas A&M

     Jackson Arnold and the Tigers fell short in Norman last week, but the passing game has finally started to open up. Keon Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. combined for 148 yards and a TD between 12 catches and were getting great separation from the OU secondary. They will look to build on that in a very tough road environment for the second straight week as they travel to College Station to take on the Aggies. A&M had the impressive win against Notre Dame, but I feel like a lot of the CFB wold hasn't thought much about the Aggies. QB Marcel Reed has shown great improvement in his second year as the starter and his dual-threat ability could be difficult for Auburn to contain as they struggled with John Mateer running around them last week. Upset watch has potential here, but I expect A&M to make more of a statement to get noticed. Mike Elko will always have a defensive game plan ready and I think Jackson Arnold will be under heat again in the pocket. The Auburn Oline struggled to protect him last week and that will lead to more point opportunities for A&M with short fields and turnovers. Gig 'Em Aggies as they win at home 38-17.

#11 Indiana at Iowa

     The Hoosiers quickly and emphatically proved me wrong last week as they STOMPED my BIG 10 dark horse in Illinois. Curt Cignetti is not a man you should question I've learned when you think his teams have had their time in the spotlight. They now travel on the road to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. It's always a tricky place to play in the BIG 10 as most every team that goes there finds themselves playing very far from their normal tendencies. Iowa's defense is always great at forcing turnovers and teams playing them always seem to make mistakes in the worst moments. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has been sensational though, throwing 14 TDs and just 10 INCOMPLETIONS over the last 3 weeks. The Hoosiers seem primed to make statements week in and week out, so they are going to stomp Iowa and most everyone else on their way toward another playoff run. Hoosiers over the Hawkeyes 38-14.

#15 Tennessee at Mississippi State

     A big upset alert game is set in Starkville as the Bulldogs host the 15th ranked Vols. Tennessee has a high powered offense behind QB Joey Aguilar who has thrown for 1,124 yards with 12 TDs and 3 picks. He'll be up against the 13th best pass defense in the nation with Mississippi State and they've already got 5 picks on the season. The Vols have put up at least 41 points in every game, but their own defense has been gashed at times, giving up 21 plays of 20+ yards already this season. For the Bulldogs, they come in unbeaten after winning just 2 games a year ago and not a single one in the SEC. This would be a big win for HC Jeff Lebby, and while I do believe his team is on the rise, I don't think Tennessee is overlooking the Bulldogs. Vols win on the road with an impressive outing from Aguilar 34-21.

Arizona at #14 Iowa State

     The Wildcats come into Ames, Iowa looking to upset the 14th ranked Cyclones as two undefeated teams in the Big XII clash. As anticipated, this conference has been very unpredictable in the early parts of this season, so don't sleep on Arizona under Brent Brennan. Defensively, they rank 2nd in the nation with a +6 turnover margin, and that's always a good stat to take on the road. Iowa State will lean on Senior QB Rocco Becht and his plethora of receivers to handle this matchup. Becht has 4 different players with over 100 receiving yards on the season as he spreads it very well throughout his team. The run game has been key to balance their offense and in addition to the 2 rushing TDs from Becht, RBs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III both average nearly 5 yards per carry. If Iowa State can get the run game moving early, Arizona could struggle as they have not been tested by a dynamic offense yet this season. Be sure to watch QB Noah Fafita for the Wildcats though, as he's a playmaker and will keep them in this game. I'll take Iowa State in the night game atmosphere at home, but Wildcats hang for a while before falling 31-21.

#17 Alabama at #5 Georgia

     An SEC heavyweight matchup in between the hedges is set to take place as Georgia takes on Alabama in Athens. The Tide are in need of a statement win after their opening weekend loss to Florida State, especially after the 'Noles were upset in double overtime last night. They've balanced their offense much more since their opening week, and should give Georgia some headaches to deal with defensively. We saw Tennessee put up 41 points on the Dawgs a couple of weeks ago and if they can get a good rhythm on the ground early, those chains will stay short and manageable. For Georgia, they will look to establish a run game as well to keep pressure off Gunnar Stockton. The Tide's defense is very aggressive and if you give them opportunities to put pressure, bad things will happen. Stockton does have the dual-threat ability, but I expect Bama to have a spy ready. These games are always full of highlights, so be sure to enjoy it as the Tide Roll to a 33-28 victory.

#6 Oregon at #3 Penn State

     The biggest game of the night is set in Happy Valley with a legendary White Out between Penn State and Oregon. These two teams met in the BIG 10 Championship last season as the Ducks held off the Nittany Lions for a 45-37 victory. The Ducks are a high-powered, fast-paced offense that spreads defenses all across the field. Penn State has a very athletic defense, but they want to get pressure and keep Oregon in long chain situations for this game. Offensively, Penn State has upgraded their receivers to help Drew Allar, but the true key to the game is the rushing attack. The Nittany Lions have two fantastic RBs with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who both had over 100 yards in that BIG 10 Championship last year. Oregon hasn't been tested with their rush defense yet this year, but it's hard to pick against the Ducks. They look complete, they look fast, and they won the BIG 10 in their first season. I've got them as my BIG 10 favorite again, and I think they show why tonight with a big win on the road. This should be a fantastic game to watch, and I've got the Ducks over the Nittany Lions 40-33.

Quick Hit Predictions:

#16 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest - The Ramblin' Wreck are on a roll and could find themselves unbeaten by the time they reach Georgia. Until then, keep it simple: run the ball and win the week. GT 31, WF 17.

Rutgers at Minnesota - Rutgers was pushed around by Iowa and the Gophers look to bring a similar rushing attack. Minnesota also ranks 1st in rush defense, so Rutgers could struggle to keep chains short. Golden Gophers over the Scarlet Knights 27-17.

Louisville at Pitt - An undercard in the ACC with teams have both recently been around that conference Championship game. I trust Jeff Brohm more than Paul Chryst in this game, so give me the Cards 33-24.

Cincinnati at Kansas - Nebraska needs Cincy to be a real threat in the Big XII, but KU at home has been dangerous. Jalon Daniels has 13 TDs so far this season and Brendan Sorsby doesn't have much help around him. Rock Chalk 26-21.

UCLA at Northwestern - Just a nasty looking game, which means we've got the ghosts of the BIG 10 West lurking. UCLA traveling to Chicago for a date with the Wildcats in their first game after firing Deshon Foster. No idea how this plays out, but give me the home team? Northwestern 30, UCLA 27.

Baylor at Oklahoma State - The Cowboys fired their coach on Tuesday and host a high-powered Baylor offense coming off a home loss with a last second field goal on Saturday. Not a great combination so Sic 'Em and Baylor wins 38-14.

Utah at West Virginia - The Utes travel east to Appalachia where the Mountaineers await for a Big XII battle. Angry Utes after the home loss, Kyle Whittingham will have his defense ready to go. Utah wins 28-10.

#25 BYU at Colorado - A rematch of the Alamo Bowl in which the Cougars dismantled Coach Prime and the Buffs 36-14. The Cougars haven't been tested much this year, so this is certainly a dangerous road game with Kaidon Salter now at QB for the Buffs. I don't think Coach Prime has them quite there yet, so give me the Cougars to win 30-24 on the road.

Thanks for reading my Week 5 Predictions and enjoy a fantastic slate for this College Football Saturday!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Week 4 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 4 of College Football and it's set to be a good one! My Huskers open up BIG 10 play against Michigan, we've got a couple of ranked versus ranked matchups and a number of teams on upset watch. I'm going to skip the reflections and breakdown of the Huskers' win against Houston Christian, but I am glad to see Nebraska taking care of business against an opponent of that level. As highlighted over the last couple of weeks, that is what good teams do. I'll also take my flowers for the score prediction as I was very close with my 54-7 score and the Huskers won 59-7! I also had WVU 30-24 over Pitt and it was 31-24. I'm getting pretty good at this! We'll move right into my Week 4 Predictions and all the games you should keep an eye on today.

Week 3 Results: 15 - 5

Overall Results: 50 - 19

Week 4 Predictions:

#17 Texas Tech at #16 Utah

     Our Big Noon Kickoff takes place at 10 AM local time for the Utes of Salt Lake City. Utah hosts this year's "best team money can buy" with Texas Tech coming to town. Easily one of the biggest matchups in the Big XII this season, and I think we could very well see a rematch of these teams in the Big XII Championship. A long way to go until then, but for today we get to see if Texas Tech can back up all the money they threw on the table. I love Kyle Whittingham and his Utah teams. They always have an aggressive defense and are tough at home. They've rebuilt their offense around Junior New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier at QB. He's thrown for 628 yards this season while adding another 198 on the ground with 9 total TDs. For the Red Raiders, Senior QB Behren Morton leads the 2nd ranked offense in the nation, throwing for 923 yards with 11 TDs and just 1 pick. Defensively this game comes down to pressure and third down stops. Both teams have 9 sacks on the season, which means these offenses need to stay ahead of the chains. I may regret this, and this pick does not reflect my overall reflections of the losing team, but put your Guns Up and WRECK 'EM as Texas Tech pulls off a massive statement win against Utah. Red Raiders 27, Utah 26.

SMU at TCU (Battle for the Iron Skillet)

     These cross-town rivals are finishing the 110 year old rivalry with one last battle for the Iron Skillet. As of right now, there are no plans to get this rivalry back on the schedule and it's certainly a losing situation for the fans, especially in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. This year's game should be a fun one (and a primary reason to keep the series going after 103 meetings) as both teams are much more powerful than in previous stages of their respective CFB lives. TCU was in the title game a couple of years ago and SMU made the playoffs last season. There is money supporting these programs and a couple of good coaches, one of whom left SMU for TCU to add some fire to the rivalry. Regardless, we should see fireworks in this one. Both offenses are top 30 in scoring and the defenses will have a lot to handle. SMU gave up 48 to Baylor in double OT a couple weeks ago after leading by 14 with about 6 minutes left in the game. The Horned Frogs' defense hasn't been tested much yet, but Kevin Jennings should take care of that quickly. I truly love watching both of these teams, so it is hard to pick a winner here. I'll lean on the Ponies because they seem a bit more balanced on offense, but no matter what this will be a fun game to watch in the opening window. SMU takes the Skillet 41-38.

Oregon State at #6 Oregon (Civil War)

As of right now, this is the last Civil War scheduled to be played. These are games that need to be played and it's horrible to see some of these rivalries disappear from the sport. Rivalries like the one between the Ducks and the Beavers are what truly make College Football unique. But as for this game, Oregon should roll. Oregon State is in a tough spot with their 0-3 start, battling but not quite finishing throughout their games. Despite already passing for 896 yards and 6 TDs, Maalik Murphy of the Beavers has been a bit careless with 5 picks as well. Senior RB Anthony Hankerson is a fun one to watch if you love downhill, smash mouth backs, but he won't be enough to hang with the Ducks. I expect Dantae Moore and the Ducks to put their offense into high gear and win this game 45-14.

#22 Auburn at #11 Oklahoma

     The Jackson Arnold bowl is set to take place in Norman as the ex-Sooner comes back leading his new team, the Auburn Tigers into a ranked versus ranked matchup in the SEC. John Mateer is now running the show as OU's quarterback, and literally running as he's got 4 TDs on the ground already this season. Arnold has 4 rushing TDs of his own too, so defenses will be tested early and often with their dual-threat ability. Oklahoma's defense has been much improved from the middle of last season, and Auburn is still figuring out their passing attack with Arnold. They have fabulous receivers in Eric Singleton Jr. and Cam Coleman, but both wideouts only have 149 yards each on the season. We'll see if they can open up their air attack today, but playing in Norman is no easy task. The Sooners need to clean up on the turnovers as they are -5 on the season, but I'll give them the edge, I think Mateer with OC Ben Arbuckle is too much for Auburn to handle on the road. Boomer Sooner 36-30.

Tulane at #13 Ole Miss

     One of my upset watch games features the Green Wave taking on the Rebels at the Grove. Ole Miss does not have much for defense and Jake Retzlaf has been dynamic for Tulane, racking up 800 total yards and 8 TDs. Ole Miss is expected to start Trinidad Chambliss at QB with the injury to Austin Simmons, and their offense was humming with Chambliss. I doubt they'll miss a beat within their offensive attack, but can they win another shootout? I really like Tulane to keep pace in this game, especially as one of the lead candidates for the G5 rep in the playoffs. I'll go with the Rebels playing at home, but expect fireworks and expect the Green Wave to hang around in this game and cover the -11.5. Ole Miss 42, Tulane 34.

North Carolina at UCF

     Scott Frost round 2 at UCF is off to a 2-0 start against lower level competition. Their first true matchup of the season pits them against Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels of North Carolina. Yes, Scott Frost and Bill Belichick are coaching against each other in a game of College Football, how can you not love this sport? As for the game, it would be nice to see UNC pull the upset on the road, but this team has too many jumbled pieces for me to feel comfortable picking them. Gio Lopez does bring a danger factor to UCF with his legs, but I'll begrudgingly take the home team Knights. They've got 5 sacks in their two games to go with 9 pass deflections and two picks. Defense at home is always a good sign. UCF 31, UNC 27.

South Carolina at #23 Missouri

     The Gamecocks head to the "other" Columbia in the SEC as the Tigers of Mizzou await. LaNorris Sellers is coming out of concussion protocol and is cleared for this game. With Sellers playing, the Gamecocks are much more dangerous, especially with his dual threat ability. On the other side, Beau Pribula has looked impressive as a starter with the Tigers after transferring from Penn State. Missouri's offense has been boosted by a strong run game from Sophomore Ahmad Hardy, who averages 8.1 yards per carry and has racked up 5 TDs so far this season. This is a game needed by South Carolina, and I'm not convinced by Missouri, but I'll take them at home. Mizzou wins 30-27.

Florida at #4 Miami

     The Gators threw 5 interceptions in Death Valley against LSU last week but only lost by 10. Miami whomped South Florida 49-12, showing little concern of the Bulls. It's really hard to imagine Miami not steam rolling in this game, but Florida doesn't go down easy. Defensively, this team has done well not to give up many yards or points, as they rank in the top 30 for total and scoring defense. Unfortunately for Gator fans, they rank 124th in the nation with just 2 sacks through 3 games. Without being able to get pressure on Carson Beck, he will pick you apart in this offense. Miami on the other side, loves to get pressure, and DJ Lagway has already been struggling. I still don't believe in Carson Beck as a top tier QB, but I do think he fits this system for Miami very well, and the Hurricanes win 28-17.

#9 Illinois at #19 Indiana

     The other BIG 10 game to watch today takes place in Bloomington as the Hoosiers square off with the Illini. Ahead of the season I predicted that Illinois would be this year's Indiana getting into the playoffs, and today is where that theory gets put to the test. Fernando Mendoza leads Indiana now after transferring from Cal, and he's put up impressive numbers against very lackluster competition. For Illinois, the road test at Duke a couple of weeks ago was an impressive win, but conference play is always a step up. Senior QB Luke Altmeyer has a lot of experience to bring as a 3rd year starter. He commands this offense well and he's complimented by a dynamic thunder and lightening duo at RB. Junior Kaden Feagin is 6'3, 250 averaging 4.4 yards per carry as he rumbles through defenders. Sophomore Ca'lil Valentine is 5'9 190 with great pass catching ability out of the backfield and makes defenders miss in space. Indiana's defense needs to focus on tackling this week, because it won't be easy. We know that Curt Cignetti just wins though, and playing with a home field advantage always helps the defense. This will be a great game to watch, but I'm sticking to my guns. I think Illinois is a VERY dangerous team this season, and the Illini beat the Hoosiers 33-21.

Washington at Washington State (The Apple Cup)

     While conference realignment has destroyed so many rivalries, The Apple Cup remains and has at least a few more games scheduled in coming years. Wazzu is returning home after a beat down in North Texas as the Mean Green hung 59 on the Cougars en route to victory. The Dubs are off a BYE week and will look to lean on Senior RB Jonah Coleman as they battle across the Palouse. Coleman has nearly 300 rushing yards through just 2 games with 7 TDs and a gashing 7.4 yard per carry average. The Cougars rank 85th in rush defense through the early stages of this season, so they will need to plug those holes quickly in order to keep the chains in their favor. I like Washington to win here and the Apple Cup returns to the Seattle for the 77th time in history. Huskies 34, Cougars 21.

Arizona State at Baylor

     One of the underrated Big XII games this week takes place in Waco, Texas as the reigning conference champ Sun Devils take on the Bears. Arizona State bounced back with an impressive win against Texas State last week, but don't be sleeping on these Baylor Bears. While their defense has some holes, Sawyer Robertson has been slinging it this year, throwing for 1,070 yards with 10 TDs and just 2 picks. He has the offense averaging over 500 yards per game and 38 points per game. He's complimented by Sophomore RB Bryson Washington, who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 304 yards and 4 TDs on the season. I expect Baylor to score and gash the Sun Devils for a few big plays. Arizona State is susceptible to those defensively, and ex-Baylor QB Blake Shapen lit them up for 279 yards and 3 TDs. Offensively, I do still like what Kenny Dillingham brings to the table, especially with Sam Leavitt throwing to Jordyn Tyson on the outside. I expect a classic, Big XII barn burner for this game, but I like the Bears to win at home 37-33. Sic 'em!

Michigan State at #25 USC (New Rivalry Name: The Illiad)

     Just like in ancient history, the Spartans and the Trojans are set to do battle. I'm unofficially officially dubbing this new BIG 10 matchup the Illiad and the Trophy is a Trojan Horse. The marketing opportunities for this game is off the charts. On the field, these teams clash with very contrasting styles of play. USC is a dynamic, high-powered offense with an extremely efficient and talented QB leading the way with Jayden Maiava 989 passing yards and 6 TDs. While this has been against lesser competition, the Trojans certainly look to bring firepower to the offensive side of this war in the Coliseum. Michigan State comes in with a unblemished record of their own and has begun to put up the kind of points Junior QB Aidan Chiles promised fans when he took over the starting role. He's got 656 passing yards and a 6:1 TD to INT ratio to his name thus far. Both of these QBs have dual threat ability and will cause headaches on third down. Much like the Illiad of old, this one should be an all out assault from the offensive attacks. The key factor to watch is the clock. This game kicks off at 8 PM Pacific Time which is 11 PM Eastern Time. That means that by the middle of the second quarter, the Spartans will be battling on midnight body clocks. Never a recipe for success and I think USC wins this one 45-28.

Fresno State at Hawai'i

     The Bulldogs travel to the Islands as the Rainbow Warriors look to go for back-to-back wins in this rivalry and have 4 of the last 5 meetings in their favor. Fresno was crushed by Kansas to open the year, but since then have looked strong, especially in the run game where Sophomore RB Bryson Donelson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry. EJ Warner has improved each week at QB and the Bulldogs are averaging over 35 points per game. I have Hawai'i making a bowl game this year, but I don't know if they can hang enough points to beat Fresno, even at home. This is always an entertaining rivalry game, so if you're up late be sure to turn it on. Fresno State 33, Hawai'i 28.

#21 Michigan at Nebraska (The Bussin' Bowl)

     Nebraska hosts Michigan for the BIG 10 opener in Memorial Stadium. Two iconic blue bloods of college football with a new rivalry in the Bussin' Bowl, named after the Bussin' With the Boys podcast led by Michigan's Taylor Lewan and Nebraska's Will Compton. This is the first true test for Nebraska, and with 9 years separating this team from their last ranked win, the pressure is high for Matt Rhule and staff to win this game. This would be a big statement win for Nebraska as they work back into blue blood status, especially when Michigan won 45-7 last time in 2023. For the Huskers, stopping the run is critical in this game. Junior RB Justice Haynes is averaging 7.9 yards per carry with 388 yards and 5 TDs so far this season. Against Cincy, the Blackshirt front 7 was pushed around a bit, so look for Michigan to try and establish their presence on the line of scrimmage early. I expect Nebraska to load the box and force Bryce Underwood to beat Nebraska with his arm. He's an extremely talented QB, but he's a freshman playing his 4th game in a very hostile road environment. Plus, Nebraska's pass defense currently ranks #1 in the nation and is the strength of this defense. Containing Underwood in the run game is key as well, especially when the Huskers often struggle against dual-threat QBs. Offensively, it runs through Dylan Raiola's decision making. He's shown great understanding with Dana Holgorsen's offense, finding the open receivers after working through his reads and progressions. If Emmett Johnson can continue a similar pace with the rushing attack, Dylan should be able to pick apart the Michigan secondary with some play action. Turnovers are always a big factor for conference games, so Nebraska needs to stay clean in that category. There is great momentum with this program and we know the crowd (including myself) will be going wild at Memorial today. Nebraska seems primed to make a statement, and I say they do it today. GO BIG RED as the Huskers beat Michigan 27-24.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Arkansas at Memphis - The Hogs are on the road again, this time at a dangerous Memphis team who averages 37 points per game so far this season. Arkansas has a dynamic offense of their own, and it all runs through QB Taylen Green. He's already thrown for 866 yards with 11 TDs and 2 picks while adding another 307 and 2 TDs on the ground. He's the X-factor for this team, the defense just needs to get a few stops. Woo Pig as the Hogs win 38-31.

Maryland at Wisconsin - A BIG 10 matchup between the Terps and Badgers is a much needed get right game for Luke Fickell and a good measuring stick for Mike Locksley. I'm not high on either team, but Wisconsin at home is hard to go against. Badgers beat the Terps 23-14.

Syracuse at Clemson - The Tigers have quickly fallen off everyone's radar with some very poor offensive performances and a 1-2 record. Exactly where Dabo wants to be. I love Fran Brown and Syracuse, but this is a bad week to catch Clemson. Tigers win 30-17.

Purdue at #24 Notre Dame - Certainly a game for the Irish to bounce back with after a rough 0-2 start, but with a banged up defense for Notre Dame the Boilermakers could hang for a bit. Notre Dame wins 31-13.

James Madison at Liberty - JMU is looking to unseat Liberty as the Flames struggles continue with back-to-back losses on the road at Jacksonville State and Bowling Green. My guy Tyler Hurst makes some fantastic graphics for their football socials (seriously, check them out), but that won't be enough to stop the Dukes. JMU 37, Liberty 23

NC State at Duke - The Wolfpack are quietly finding ways to win close games and now travel to Duke who is coming off back-to-back losses against Illinois and Tulane. The QB battle with CJ Bailey and Darian Mensah will be really fun to watch, but I'll give the nod to the road team because of their rushing attack with Sophomore RB Hollywood Smothers averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Wolfpack win 27-24.

West Virginia at Kansas - West Virginia is coming off a major win at home against Pitt in their comeback, overtime victory. Now they go on the road against a well-rested Jayhawk team that has been sitting with their rivalry loss to Mizzou for two weeks? Yeah, give me Jaylon Daniels to ROCK CHALK over the Mountaineers for a 33-21 win.

BYU at Eastern Carolina - The Cougars travel East to take on the Pirates in a very dangerous tripping hazard game. BYU is coming off a BYE week, but their secondary will be tested by the air raid attack from Senior QB Katin Houser. He's got 973 with 5 TDs on the season and I think the Pirates steal one here. East Carolina 30, BYU 24.

Cal at San Diego State - The Calgorithm has a fabulous young QB in Freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has thrown for 780 yards with 6 TDs and 1 pick while adding another TD on the ground. He has looked extremely comfortable in this offense very early into his career and places the ball where his wideouts can make plays. Golden Bears on the road 36-17.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Illinois money-line at Indiana. As highlighted above, I think the Illini are a dangerous team and I'm not sure Indiana has the defense to stop them. Take the Illini on the road.

2. Tulane +11.5 at Ole Miss. There won't be much defense in this game, and the Green Wave know how to put up points, they cover.

3. Baylor money-line versus Arizona State. The Big XII is a wild place, there's a good chance these teams are both in the mix for a conference title bid at the end of the year. Give me the Bears today!

Thanks for reading my Week 4 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando