Hello Football Friends, we finally made it! Welcome to my season preview of the 2025 College Football Season. After an offseason that was filled with Playoff expansion talks, Supreme Court rulings and boring political policy talk, we can finally get back to some football. Last year I tried a new season preview method that I think worked well, so we're sticking with it. This post will highlight my oddly specific predictions for each conference, previewing some of the things you should watch for in 2025. I've also gone back to last year's post (LINKED HERE) and counted up how many oddly specific predictions I got right. We'll see if we can improve upon last year's numbers in 2025, enjoy!
2024 Oddly Specific Prediction Results: 14.5/40
Sun Belt Conference: 1 out of 5
Conference USA: 1 out of 4 (WKU defense proved me wrong by 0.4 ppg)
Mid America Conference: 1 out of 3
Mountain West Conference: 0 out of 3 (So close Hawai'i)
American Conference: 2 out of 3
(0.5 point for top defense winning the conference, but it was Army and 0.5 point for 2 non-conference wins against P4, but one was Navy over Oklahoma in the bowl game)
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC): 3 out of 5
Big XII Conference: 4.5 out of 6 (0.5 for TMac as a Biletnikoff Finalist)
Southeastern Conference (SEC): 2 out of 5
(Swung and missed on a few, but absolutely crushed the Carson Beck and Oklahoma predictions)
BIG 10 Conference: 1 out of 6
Oddly Specific Sunbelt Predictions
1. Southern Miss will go Bowling in their first season under Charles Huff.
After failed contract negotiations led to Huff leaving Marshall just days after winning the Sun Belt Conference Championship 31-3 over Louisiana, he has a chance to turn around one of the conferences worst program. The Golden Eagles have won just 4 games in the past two seasons and were 0-8 in conference play last season. They have a favorable schedule and with so many former Marshall players transferring along with Huff, including star QB Braylon Braxton, I think Southern Miss goes bowling in year number 1.
2. James Madison fends off Georgia Southern and Old Dominion to win the East.
The Dukes fell short last season with a couple of close conference losses and a couple of puzzling ones. They have some holes to patch up with a new o-line and receiver corps, but this team averaged nearly 200 yards per game on the ground and bring back their lead rusher in George Pettaway. They're hoping QB Alonza Barnett III has recovered from his knee injury from last season, because they host both Georgia Southern and Old Dominion at home and need those wins to control the East.
3. Georgia Southern averages 33 points per game.
I need to give Clay Helton his flowers, he proved me wrong last season and did it in a big way. I really enjoyed watching this offense last year as they put up 28 points per game, and I think they'll bump that average up by a few more this season. They finished in the middle of the pack in terms of scoring offense in the Sun Belt last season, I think they'll climb into the top 3 this year.
4. Don't sleep on the Jaguars, South Alabama wins the West.
After tying for 2nd place in their division a year ago, the Jags are looking to climb atop the heap in 2025. All three conference losses were by a single score last season, and averaged nearly 35 points per game. They'll be breaking in a few new faces on both sides of the ball, but they avoid JMU, Georgia Southern and ODU in cross conference play while hosting Louisiana at home. I think they take the west this season.
Oddly Specific CUSA Predictions
1. UTEP makes a big jump in year two under Scotty Walden.
The Miners have a couple of key returning players on defense along with USC transfer QB Malachi Nelson joining an experienced QB room. They also return 3 of their top 4 receivers who are primed to lead an offense that averaged 200 yards through the air per game last week. I expect that number to rise along with their win total as they could be in the mix for a conference title appearance as well. I say they go bowling in year two under Scotty Walden.
2. 5 CUSA teams make a bowl game (officially).
Last season CUSA sent 5 teams to bowl games after Marshall announced they couldn't field a team following their Sun Belt Championship win. Louisiana Tech took their spot as the bowl game was played just a few hours from their campus. Only 4 teams officially qualified for a bowl game with 6 wins or more, but I think the conference sends 5 teams officially to a bowl game with 6 wins or more.
3. CUSA finishes as the lowest scoring G5 Conference.
This isn't the boldest of predictions as they were in this spot a year ago, but with so much turnover in coaches and rosters, I think it's hard pressed to see this conference putting up a massive amount of points. They averaged 23.6 points per game last season and I think they stay under 25 points per game as a conference in 2025.
Oddly Specific MAC Predictions
1. Toledo returns to be a rushing power in the conference.
The Rockets fell to 108th in the nation with their rushing attack a year ago, after being a top 50 rushing offense in the previous 3 seasons. With key transfers at RB in Chip Trayanum (Kentucky) and Kenji Christian (NC A&T), they should be able to return to a run heavy power in the MAC. With 3 returning starters on the offensive line and some extra depth in the portal, they will be a top 50 rushing team in 2025.
2. Miami (OH) has a top 4 offense in the conference yet again.
The Red Hawks regressed a bit from their 2023 MAC Championship campaign where they ranked 3rd in scoring offense with 25.6 points per game to 24.1 points per game last season. Good enough for 9th in the conference. I think with former Toledo and Baylor QB, Dequan Finn, and a couple of P4 wideout transfers, this offense can jump back into the top 4 of the conference and average more than 26 points per game. Red Hawks should have a fun offense to watch this season.
3. Ohio wins 1 of their 3 non-conference games against P4 opponents.
It will likely happen in the first or second game as they open the season at Rutgers and then return home for a game with West Virginia. Game 3 is at Ohio State, which would be a very fun upset, but lets say they beat either Rutgers or WVU. Brian Smith was promoted from OC to HC after Tim Albin's departure to Charlotte. With the same QB and defensive coordinator, the reigning MAC champs start 2025 hot with a P4 win... maybe 2!
4. UMass wins 3 MAC conference games in their first season as members.
The Minutemen have not had much success in their short tenure at Division 1, but moving to the MAC should open up more opportunities for wins as they have an easier schedule. They do have to travel to the defending champs with Ohio late in the season, but avoid Miami (OH) and Toledo. I think new Head Coach Joe Harasymiak gets UMass off to a strong start as a new conference member with at least 3 wins.
5. Huskies' farewell tour ends with a third straight bowl appearance.
Northern Illinois is moving to the Mountain West Conference (yes, we know it doesn't make sense) after this season, so a farewell tour is in order for one of the traditional MAC powerhouses. HC Thomas Hammock led his team to an upset on Notre Dame last season, but has a lot to rebuild with a new defensive coordinator and just 3 returning starters. This program is always one to count on though, and I expect them to go bowling one last time as a MAC member.
Oddly Specific Mountain West Predictions
1. UNLV and San Jose State battle for #2 spot, and the Spartans win.
Boise is the heavy favorite once again, so who will they be challenged by in the conference championship? My guess is the Spartans of San Jose State. Dan Mullen takes over at UNLV and has a lot of roster turnover, but also grabs the reigns of a program with back-to-back conference title appearances. The Spartans return 9 starters from a 7-win team a year ago and they avoid UNLV and Boise State this season while hosting Air Force, Hawaii and Fresno State. I think they jump over UNLV as Dan Mullen rebuilds and shakes off the rust.
2. Maddux Madsen throws for 3,500 & 30 total TDs with Boise winning another Mountain West title.
With Ashton Jeanty off to the Raiders in the NFL, Maddux Madsen has an offense fully at his command. The Broncos always have a strong rushing attack, and Sire Gaines should fill those shoes well, but this year is Madsen's time to shine. The rising Junior threw for 3,018 yards with 23 TDs and 6 picks as a starter last year while adding another 221 and 5 TDs on the ground. I think he bumps those numbers up to 3,500 passing with 30 total TDs and maybe enough rushing to push him over 4,000 total yards in 2025 while leading the Broncos to another Mountain West title. A trip to South Bend is the big one, but the Broncos should be in the playoff discussion yet agin.
3. Mountain West teams win at least 2 out of 14 non-conference P4 games.
I may be falling into the March Madness trap of giving the Mountain West too much credit, but I think there are multiple opportunities for teams in this conference to pull the "upset" over a power 4 opponent. Both Hawai'i and San Jose State play a struggling Stanford team, Dan Mullen and the Rebels get UCLA at home and who knows what Boise State could pull off in front of Touchdown Jesus. I think the conference wins some games early in the year to turn some heads out to the West.
4. Hawai'i goes bowling (for real this time).
The Rainbow Warriors were just 1 win away from proving my prediction right last year, so I'll give Timmy Chang one more chance. QB protection is a must for a team that gave up 43 sacks last season, ranking 126th in the nation. Apart from that, this team has weapons and 7 starters returning on defense. Let's get to a bowl game Hawai'i!
5. Bronco Mendenhall doesn't get a warm reception from the Lobos.
Mendenhall had just one season in Albuquerque before opting to head back to Utah to take the job at Utah State and be closer to family. I thought he had the Lobos moving in the right direction after a 5-7 opening season with multiple close losses. That's why I think the Lobos spoil his return on October 25th when Utah State plays at New Mexico. Lobos win this one for a bit of bragging rights against their former coach. Bonus Prediction: I don't think either team is bowling this year though.
Oddly Specific American Predictions
1. Army wins 10 games again.
The Black Knights shocked everyone last season, winning the American Conference title over Tulane and finishing 12-2 with their only losses coming to Notre Dame and their rival Navy. Head Coach Jeff Monken has a few holes to patch up, most notably replacing star QB Bryson Dailey. They have a couple of experienced RBs and 2 returning offensive linemen. Defensively this was the best in the AAC last year, and while they lost a few pieces, they should be one of the best again. Combining all this with a favorable schedule, I think the Black Knights win 10 games and area factor in the conference championship race yet again. Key games are at K-State, at Tulane and at Air Force.
2. South Florida struggles in non-conference, but turns it on in AAC play as a title contender.
The Bulls were a bit disappointing last season after a lot of hype. Injuries took out Byron Brown and other players, combined with a defense that gave up nearly 30 points per game left them at a 7-6 record. Brown is back along with star wideout Keshaun Singleton and the defense returns 6 players with experience. The non-conference schedule is a tough one with Boise coming to town followed by trips to the Swamp and South Beach to take on Florida and Miami. Once into AAC play, the Bulls should get rolling as their biggest games are road trips to Memphis and Navy in late October and November. Plenty of time to build up momentum and compete for the conference crown.
3. Defense improves across the conference, the AAC will rank 3rd in G5 points per game allowed.
Last year as a conference the American teams scored an average of 29.1 while giving up 29.0 points per game. This was good for first and last among G5 teams in the respective categories. Despite 18 games against P4 opponents, I think the defense improves across the conference and they finish the year ranked in the top 3 for points allowed among the G5. CUSA and the MAC tied at 27.6 points per game allowed last year to lead the G5.
4, 5 & 6. Navy offense explodes with Blake Horvath back under center.
The Senior Midshipmen totaled more than 2,500 yards of offense last season with 30 TDs (13 passing & 17 rushing). There's a few pieces to replace up front, but with all his weapons returning in the backfield and out wide, this offense is primed to be one of the best in the conference. Last season they ranked 11th in the AAC for total offense and 7th for points per game, as Navy often does, but I think third year coach Brian Newberry wants to open the flood gates. I'll make 3 predictions for this one because I think the Midshipmen have it primed this season. Navy is undefeated heading into their annual game with Notre Dame, The offense finishes in the top 5 of the conference for scoring, and Blake Horvath racks up more than 2,800 yards with 35 total TDs.
7. American Athletic Conference sends 8 teams bowling again.
Last year the American sent 8 teams to bowl games after sending 7 in 2022 and 6 in 2023. This could be one of the deeper conferences in the nation and I think 8 or 9 teams should get 6 wins or more.
Oddly Specific ACC Predictions
1. Clemson is the lone ACC rep in the playoffs this season.
Last year I predicted the ACC would have two playoff teams with one of them being SMU, Clemson filled that other spot to help my prediction come true. While I think the ACC has some talented teams, I don't believe there is enough in them to get multiple playoff teams in 2025. Clemson is the heavy favorite in the conference and brings back a tremendous amount of experience starting with QB Cade Klubnik. There's always tripping hazards in this conference, and I think too many teams will trip each other up resulting in the ACC Champion being the only playoff rep.
2. Cal & Stanford combine for 1 win on the East Coast.
Traveling to play a football game is always tricky, traveling 3 time zones is brutal. Last year the Golden Bears and the Cardinal made 6 trips and won 2 games out on the East Coast. Cal had a couple of close losses and Stanford pulled off the Syracuse upset, but it's just hard to prepare a team for that much travel. Unfortunately I think the West Coast reps of the ACC win just 1 out of 6 on the Eastern seaboard this season.
3. Georgia Tech rematches Clemson for the ACC title.
The Yellow Jackets are ready for a big year after a rugged 7-6 campaign in 2024. A few of those games could've gone a different way with a few plays, so this team is more than capable, especially with QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes returning to the backfield. This could be one of the top duos in the nation and with a favorable schedule that brings the Tigers, Virginia Tech and Syracuse all to Atlanta while avoiding Miami and SMU, this team has a good opportunity to contend for an ACC Championship.
4. Virginia Tech kills Miami's ACC Title hopes in late November.
The Hurricanes travel to Blacksburg, VA on November 22nd and could likely be in a position to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game, but Enter Sandman and the Hokies will have other plans. Virginia Tech was plagued by injuries last season, derailing their competitive hopes in the conference. New coordinators on both sides of the ball combined with a variety of portal transfers to help QB Kyron Drones should make this team deadly in knocking off fellow ACC contenders. With a late season win over Miami the Hokies will knock out the Hurricanes.
Oddly Specific Big XII Predictions
1. Colorado takes a step back, 6-6 to finish the season.
For the record, I do think Deion is a very talented coach, but this season will truly show his abilities. Without Travis Hunter and Shedeur to lean on offensively, the Buffs turn to Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter with 5 star recruit Julian Lewis waiting behind. Defensively, Colorado also has to learn to play without Travis Hunter, and with high-powered Big XII offenses loaded on their schedule, a bowl game will be tough to reach with out a few key wins.
2. The Big XII brings 2 teams to the playoffs and one of them is Texas Tech.
With their transfer portal haul, there's a lot more hype around the Red Raiders to make a playoff push than there was with SMU last season (who I correctly predicted into the playoffs. I think Joey McGuire's squad is playoff or bust this year, not just with the money spent on the roster, but with the schedule. Road trips to Utah and K-State are certainly points of interest, but Texas Tech gets BYU, Kansas and Oklahoma State at home while avoiding Iowa State, Baylor, and the reigning champs in Arizona State. Guns Up and Wreck 'Em all the way to the Playoffs.
3. Gundy bounces the Pokes back into bowl contention.
Following his first losing season since his debut coaching Oklahoma State, I expect Mike Gundy to turn things around in a hurry. The conference is a bit too hectic to fully contend for the title like I'm sure he would like to, but I think the Pokes will be back to a bowl game in 2025.
4. Rich Rod wins the battle of coaches returning to a school over Scott Frost.
This prediction is laced with a little bit of personal vendetta, but I think West Virginia and Rich Rod are more primed for success than Frost is with the Golden Knights at UCF. These two teams meet in Orlandon on October 18th, and along with winning that game I think WVU finishes with a better record.
5. Once again, this will be the craziest and most unpredictable conference to find a champion from.
There were 4 teams that tied at 7-2 last season, 3 seasons at 6-3 and 2 more at 5-4 at the end of the 2024 regular season. Expect more of the same withe a few new faces mixed in as Utah, Baylor and Texas Tech look to contend. It will come down to the end of the season yet again and there will be some wild times all the way to the finish. Enjoy the chaos that is the Big XII.
Oddly Specific SEC Predictions
1. Texas still doesn't win the SEC or National Championship.
Arch Manning should open up more opportunities for Sarkisian and the Longhorn offense, especially compared to Quinn Ewers. However, with a new offensive line and many holes to replace on defense, this team doesn't quite have what it takes to get over the hump. Arch has talent, but very limited experience. Weapons around him will help, but I don't think its enough to win the conference.
2. Georgia takes 3 losses in the regular season.
The Bulldogs are always loaded under Kirby Smart, but the teams have been a step behind those that won back-to-back titles just a few years ago. Gunner Stockton is in at QB now and has a strong receiver corps, but needs a run game to build quickly in order to take some pressure off his shoulders. Defensively they're always one of the best, but with only 3 returning starters, they will have to get the rest of the crew up to speed quickly. Despite playing nearly all their big games at home, I think the Bulldogs are on the outside looking in with 3 losses.
3. The SEC has two Heisman finalists, but neither of them are Arch Manning.
It's not that I don't think Arch is talented, but I don't love the hype around a kid who has played very limited snaps. I made a similar prediction last season when Carson Beck was a Heisman frontrunner to start the season, knowing he wouldn't be making a trip to NYC at the end of the year. The conference is too deep at the QB position with Garrett Nussmeier, DJ Lagway, LeNorris Sellers and even Diego Pavia to keep an eye on.
4. Vandy goes bowling again.
Clark Lea proved me wrong quickly as he continues to turn the perspective at his alma mater. With Diego Pavia back for one more year of College Football, the Commodores have a great opportunity to make it to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since James Franklin was running the show from 2011-2013.
5. LSU/Bama game decides one of the SEC Title contenders.
This rivalry always has big stakes, and with a number of other teams raising their floors, the top of the conference could get very crowded. LSU and Alabama's annual rivalry will determine one of the two teams in the SEC Championship Game.
6. The SEC only sends 3 teams to the Playoffs again in 2025.
Fans of the conference were outraged last season as Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina were left on the doorstep as the BIG 10 brought 4 playoff teams in and Clemson stole a spot with their ACC title win over fellow playoff member SMU. I think the conference will get just 3 teams again this season due to some key losses at the wrong time by teams. Should be a fun battle to watch!
Oddly Specific BIG 10 Predictions
1. Oregon leads the way for the BIG 10 again.
Despite road games at Penn State and rival Washington, the Ducks are still primed to repeat as Conference Champs. I think they'll have the best conference record again to put them in Lucas Oil Stadium come December. Will they go back-to-back as conference newcomers?
2. Illinois is the Indiana of 2025.
The Hoosiers will still be a tough opponent this season, but with road trips to Autzen Stadium and Happy Valley I find it hard to see a repeat of last year's playoff run. However, another BIG 10 could fill that sneaky void, and I think it's the Fighting Illini. With home games against USC and Ohio State, the Illini avoid a lot of dangerous teams across the conference. Most importantly, they bring back one of the most experienced team in the nation with 16 returning starters. Don't say I didn't tell you so when they're in the playoff hunt at the end of the year.
3. Wisconsin is looking for a new coach by seasons end.
I'll be honest, I wanted Luke Fickell in Nebraska when both my Huskers and the Badgers were looking for a new coach a few years ago. I was (and am) very pleased with Matt Rhule, but Fickell was one of the best hires that year, until now. I just don't think his system works well at Wisconsin, and with a guantlet schedule that includes road trips to Bama, Michigan, Oregon and Indiana while also hosting Ohio State and Illinois, this could be another rough season for the Badgers who missed a bowl game for the first time in 22 years. I anticipate they'll be on the hunt for a new coach following this season.
4. The BIG 10 sends 4 teams to the playoffs again in 2025.
Oregon and Penn State are the front runners for sure, but the defending champs always replace talent with more of the same, so after the Buckeyes who will take that 4th spot? Illinois and USC are the next in line, maybe even my Huskers with all the Rhule-aid going around Lincoln? Regardless, I think the BIG 10 brings 4 teams again.
5. The BIG 10 will not be last the nation in points per game among P4 Teams.
The SEC claimed that crown last year with an average 29.9 points per game in 2024, closely followed by the ACC (29.5) and Big XII (29.1). The BIG 10 was last among P4 and only ahead of the MAC and CUSA overall with 26.3 points per game. I think the conference puts up some more points collectively in 2025 to push another P4 to the bottom of the list in points per game.
6. The BIG 10 will rank 1st in points per game allowed among all conferences.
The SEC held this crown in 2024 with a mark of 21.2 while the BIG 10 was at 22.5. Improvements to Purdue and Northwestern defenses would certainly help, but I think the BIG 10 flexes their defensive muscles in 2025
Thank you for reading my Oddly Specific 2025 Season Preview post. I will have my Week 0 and Oddly Specific Husker Football Season Preview up soon. Enjoy the last few days of football free life, because it's time to lock in. The best time of year is upon us, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
