Saturday, November 2, 2024

Week 10 Predictions

      Happy Gameday! We've reached November Football and the Playoff race is wide open. This week only features two ranked vs. ranked matchups, but there's plenty of opportunity for chaos to strike. I'll cover all the big games to watch today but first I'll take a look back to the Huskers' loss in the Horseshoe to the Buckeyes last Saturday. I really did have some hope the Huskers would pull that one out, but unfortunately they fall victim yet again to a one-score loss. I've got a lot to cover, so let's dive in.


     The Huskers put the Buckeyes on upset alert for a while last week as they led 17-14 early in the 4th quarter. After being demolished by Indiana a week prior, most everyone on the planet (myself included) did not anticipate the Huskers being much of a factor outside of the first half at best. There's a lot of things to take away from this game, but I'll keep it broken down to my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below with my analysis.

GOOD - The Blackshirts and John Hohl. The Husker defense bounced back with a purpose last week, holding the Buckeyes to just 285 total yards with 11 first downs and 1/10 third down conversion rate. After being shredded in every way possible the week prior against Indiana, this was great to see from the Blackshirts unit. They completely stuffed the run game holding two of the best backs in the nation to a combined 64 yards. A couple of coverage busts ended up hurting them toward the end of the game, but holding one of the nation's best teams to just 21 points at home after giving up 56 the week before is a big confidence boost for the rest of the season. My other GOOD from last week was the kicking (yes, I said kicking) by John Hohl. Relatively unknown until the Ohio State game, Hohl connected on all 3 of his field goals including a long of 54 to close out the first half. The Husker kicking game has been abysmal for years, but maybe it's turning a corner with Hohl?


EXPECTED - Some good and bad with Raiola. Keep in mind, this kid has only played 8 games of D-1 college football. He's still learning a lot about diagnosing defenses mid-play to ensure correct reads and what best plays to check into at the line. I thought there were some very big growing moments with him, especially when diagnosing where to throw certain passes given the coverage, pressure and where the blitz came from. We also saw him break off a 38 yard run and scramble a couple of other times. Certainly not a number one strength, but if he can extend a few plays or drives with his legs, all the better for the Huskers. The interception on a potential game-winning drive is frustrating, and there's some clear communication issues with him and his receivers at various points of the game, but those will get ironed out with time.


BAD - Screen passes. I know Matt Rhule, Dylan Raiola and a number of others have addressed this issue saying it's not all on Satterfield, but I'm still going to beat the drum. Coaching in a very similar offense at the High School level, I know how valuable screen passes can be. They build confidence for your QB and receivers with easy completions and can get you quick yards to keep the chains in manageable situations. HOWEVER, if you cannot block the screens, they are disasters waiting to happen. We spent a very significant portion of our individual time with my wideouts at Standing Bear on how to properly block each screen play and repped it over and over. I'm sure that's the case with the Huskers, but perimeter blocking is still a glaring issue for this offense. Not only in the screen game but also in the run game. The wide receiver blocking needs to be addressed immediately and I'm happy to come in and provide my expertise because that was one of my favorite things to do as a wide out. Seeing as the Huskers likely won't inquire about my assistance, I'll simply watch and observe, but please limit the screen passes until the perimeter blocking is at least at a mediocre level.


Week 9 Record: 20 - 2

Overall Record: 121 - 49


Week 10 Predictions:

#4 Ohio State at #3 Penn State

     The biggest game of the day kicks off at high noon as the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions square off in Happy Valley. It's a bit sad this isn't a night game with the White Out scene in Happy Valley, but regardless, we've got a top 5 showdown between two teams that need a statement win. Ohio State has some question marks after my Huskers stifled their star-studded offense, but they always seem to find away against Penn State. James Franklin has always talked about needing his team to level up in order to beat the Buckeyes, so now's the time to see if the work has been done. Penn State needs to study the Nebraska film closely and shut down the run early. This will open up more blitz and pass rush opportunities against Will Howard. Howard was twice last week despite his ability to scramble. Offensively the Buckeyes will look to get out on the edge, either with their RBs or talented wideouts on screens. They block the perimeter much better than the Huskers, so those plays actually go for a gain and sometimes get broken for big yards. Penn State's best offensive weapon comes in the form of a 6'6 Senior Tight End, Tyler Warren. Warren will line up in about every position on offense, including the backfield, so Ohio State needs to know where he is on every play. Both Ryan Day and James Franklin need this win to change the narrative about themselves, but only one can make that happen today. Penn State has been solid all season, and will be again today. However, I think they Buckeyes take this one 27-21.


Duke at #5 Miami

     Despite 6 turnovers from SMU, the Blue Devils couldn't knock off the Ponies at home, falling 28-27 in Overtime after a failed 2-point conversion. Now Manny Diaz has a road trip to Miami to take on his former team. The ex-Hurricane Coach has Duke at 6-2 in his first season as the head man, and knocking off his former team currently ranked at #5 would be quite the storyline. For me, it's a QB battle to watch in this one as Maalik Murphy and Cam Ward lead the respective offenses, and both of their dual threat ability has been problematic for opposing teams. Ward is a Heiman finalist hopeful with nearly 2,800 yards passing to go with 24 TDs and just 5 picks. He's added another 3 TDs on the ground and his scrambling ability and avoidance of sacks in the pocket is uncanny. Maalik Murphy has racked up nearly 1,800 yards with 17 TDs and 5 picks. He'll need some help up front because Miami loves to rush the passer and has 26 sacks on the season. I'll take the Hurricanes as they've been rolling along through ACC conference play, but Duke could keep things interesting if they learn how to get some points out of turnovers. Miami wins 34-17 over the Blue Devils.


#19 Ole Miss at Arkansas

     Despite a couple of conference losses, Ole Miss still has an outside shot at a playoff bid if they can keep things from going off the rails any more. A road win at Arkansas is needed as they host Georgia next week. Arkansas is one win away from a bowl game and hung nearly 60 on Mississippi State last week. The Hogs are a very capable and deadly team, but struggle to find consistency in their performances week to week. The Rebels struggled far more than I thought they would offensively against Oklahoma last week, but got the job done behind another great Jaxon Dart performance. He'll be big in this game and lead Ole Miss to a 31-21 victory on the road.


Minnesota at #24 Illinois

     Vegas must know something here as the Gophers are favored on the road against the Illini. Minnesota's defense has quietly become one of the nation's best, ranking 9th overall in Total Defense and 12th in Scoring, allowing just 16.8 points per game on average. The Illini fell to Oregon on the road last week, but took down Michigan at home the week prior. Luke Altmeyer is still having a strong season, throwing for nearly 1,700 yards thus far with 15 TDs and just 3 picks. He'll need to get this offense in gear as they've failed to reach double digits in their two losses, scoring 7 against Penn State and 9 against Oregon. Both of those team are top 15 defenses like the Gophers. Turnover margin is key in tight games, and both of these teams have been two of the best in the conference. I haven't watched enough Gopher football to fully appreciate why they're the favorite in this game, but I know the Illini are looking to bounce back, so give me the home underdog for a 23-20 win.


#1 Oregon at Michigan

     The Wolverines look to slow down the high-powered Ducks as they come into the Big House for afternoon BIG 10 Clash. Big Blue is very one dimensional with their run heavy attack, but Senior Davis Warren has opened at least a few options in the passing attack. He'll have a very difficult pass rush to deal with when he drops back though, as Oregon averages 3 sacks per contest. Offensively, the Ducks still run on the back of Jordan James. The Junior is averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 8 TDs on the season. Despite fewer carries in the last couple weeks, he's still been productive and helps move the chains. That opens up the offense for Dillon Gabriel and everything else they want to do, so keep your eye on #20 when he doesn't have the ball, because I guarantee Michigan will flow his way on play-fakes. Ducks stay on top 31-17.


Florida vs #2 Georgia (World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party)

     The Gators are looking to play spoiler in the back half of the season as they have 4 out of 5 remaining games against ranked conference opponents and don't have much to fear with a young QB out there developing week after week. Georgia does not look as dominant compared to previous years, and Carson Beck (as predicted) continues to struggle finding his weapons. One of the easy weapons for the Georgia offense though is ex-Gator Trevor Etienne. He's rushed for 7 TDs in the last 4 games and is due to for a breakout day. Why not against his former team? Bulldogs win 34-20 behind Etienne.


Texas Tech at #11 Iowa State

     The Red Raiders love to play close games, and despite some early celebrations, they ended up falling last week to the rival Horned Frogs 35-34. Iowa State is coming off their BYE week after nearly losing to UCF at home, so I'm sure Matt Campbell is anxious to get them back on track. Rocco Becht is very dynamic to watch, and his defense should stuff Tahj Brooks and the Red Raider run game. Give me they Cyclones at home 33-17.


#13 Indiana at Michigan State (Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon)

     Sparty is starting to find some footing under first year HC Jonathan Smith, but now host Cignasty and the 13th ranked Hoosiers after falling to in-state rival Michigan last week in the Big House. Star QB Kurtis Rourke is back under center for Indiana, which means their offense is back to full strength. The Hoosiers love to score and won't stop until the clock hits 0:00, so if Michigan State is going to win this game, Aidan Chiles better make good on his promise from the beginning of the season and help us bet the overs. Chiles is certainly a talented athlete, but turnovers have plagued him this year with 9 picks and 3 fumbles on the year. Indiana will take full advantage of those and I expect them to win 35-14.


#10 Texas A&M at South Carolina

     The leaders of the SEC head to Columbia to take on the Gamecocks. Yes, the Texas A&M Aggies are in first place atop the SEC and have a very clear path to the Championship Game in Atlanta. South Carolina has proven to be an upset minded team this year, and are fresh off a BYE week. Raheim (Rocket) Sanders is a focal point of the offense, rushing for 4.4 yards per carry and 6 TDs this season. The Aggies defense ranks 18th against the rush and have held three of their last four opponents to 100 yards or less on the ground. Offensively, I would assume to see Marcel Reed at QB, but there could be a Connor Weigman sighting as well. Weigman was benched in favor of Reed against LSU last week and the Aggies turned a 10-point halftime deficit into a 38-23 victory. Reed provides an extra element to the run game with his legs, but South Carolina's defensive front is no joke. We've seen them create havoc in the backfield all season long with 57 Tackles for Loss and 28 Sacks. A&M needs to protect up front, but I think they get the job done and win 30-27.


Louisville at #11 Clemson

     The Tigers have yet to lose to Louisville, 9-0 all time against the Cardinals. Dabo has Clemson rolling since that opening loss to Georgia, and they're averaging 42 points per game as the 4th ranked scoring offense in the nation. Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals have three losses on the season by one score each to ranked teams in Notre Dame, SMU and Miami. They're due for a big upset, but Death Valley is not an easy place to find those. Certainly a fun one to watch tonight, but I think the Tigers' offense is too much for Louisville to keep pace with, similar to their loss against Miami. Tigers 38, Cardinals 28.


Wisconsin at Iowa (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)

     Night games don't happen often in Iowa City, but when there's a Cow Trophy on the line you know they shine just a bit brighter. Wisconsin comes into Iowa City for a classic BIG 10 West type showdown. The Hawkeyes have a running back who would be in some Heisman talks if not for Ashton Jeanty up in Boise making everyone look bad by comparison. Kaleb Johnson has 1,144 yards with 16 TDs to his name this season, averaging a staggering 7.8 yards per carry. He's really the only source of offense for Iowa as the QB position continues to be a blackhole. Defensively they're not as stonewalled as they used to be, but opponents are still scoring fewer than 20 points per game on the Hawkeyes. For the Badgers they struggled to run the ball against Penn State, mustering up just 81 yards. If the run is established early, they can hold off the Hawkeyes, but I still have some question marks about Wisconsin. This will be one of those BIG 10 games where the first team to 20 wins, and oddly enough I think Iowa can get to 20 now. I'll take the Hawkeyes at home 23-17.


#18 Pitt at #20 SMU

     The only other ranked vs ranked matchup of the week features unbeaten Pitt on the road against the Red Hot Ponies. SMU was my dark horse to storm the ACC and get into the championship mix, a win against Pitt almost guarantees that with Boston College, @Virginia and Cal remaining on the schedule. Pat Narduzzi's squad still has Clemson and Louisville ahead of them, but are one of the few unbeaten teams in the nation. Very few have paid attention to the Panthers, but after ranking 116th in total offense and scoring offense last season, they are currently ranked 25th and 6th respectively with an average of 443 yards per game and 40.9 points. This could turn into a shoot out in Dallas, but the weather may have other plans with some rain. SMU somehow pulled out a road victory with 6 turnovers last week, so if they can hold onto the ball winning will be much easier. Pitt hasn't played an offense as dynamic as SMU's, but they racked up 5 picks and 3 TDs defensively against Syracuse last Thursday. This should be a fun game to watch, but it's on the ACC Network, so not many will be able to see it. Give me the Ponies by a late game score to seal it 38-35.


Culver Stockton at Peru State

     My former roommate and radio co-host Nate Muhlbach will be joining me for this Broadcast as the Bobcats host the Wildcats for a Heart of America Conference battle in the Oak Bowl. Peru State is coming off a 50-7 victory on the road last week and average around 405 yards per game offensively. Culver Stockton is 1-7 on the season and defensively allow 49 points per game on average. Big opportunity for Peru to keep rolling and I've got the Bobcats winning 56-14. Be sure to tune in to the broadcast with the link below!


UCLA at Nebraska

     The Huskers could celebrate bowl eligibility with their fans at Memorial with a win today. UCLA has had a rough start to the BIG 10 lifestyle, sitting at 2-5 and 1-4 in conference. They're coming off a BYE following their win over Rutgers, but now travel to Lincoln for a dreary and rainy afternoon in Nebraska. The sunshine-loving Bruins won't do well with the weather, so the Huskers need to take advantage of that early. Raiola's passing game will get tested on it's own in the weather, so look for a run heavy script from the Husker offense. Defense should have another big day as UCLA's offense has a limited number of weapons and they are -7 in turnover margin. Show up, command the line of scrimmage and pressure the QB to force turnovers. Huskers win and are bowl eligible for the first time since my Junior year of college with a 28-14 victory.


Quick Hit Predictions:

Virginia Tech at Syracuse - The Hokies are primed for a big finish to their season and Kyle McCord fell apart with 5 INTs against Pitt last week. Virginia Tech 27, Syracuse 21.

Arizona State at Oklahoma State - Nothing seems to be going right for Mike Gundy and the Pokes this season, but they've got to get at least one conference win, right? Pokes at home by a field goal 31-28.

USC at Washington - The Trojans and the Huskies meet now as BIG 10 opponents and neither has enjoyed the cross country travel that comes with it. Happy to be playing on the West Coast for an away game, give me USC to win in Seattle. Trojans 33, Huskies 24.

Vanderbilt at Auburn - Tigers are favored by -7.5 to a team that just took Texas to the wire with surge in the second half. Give me the Commodores on the road to Anchor Down and get bowl eligible. Vandy wins 30-26.

Kentucky at #7 Tennessee - The Wildcats already upset Ole Miss this season and took Georgia to the wire as well. On the road at Rocky Top, but Tennessee has been shaky lately. Cats keep it close, but Vols prevail 23-14.


Thanks for reading my Week 10 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday. GO BIG RED!

Peru State Livestream: https://www.heartconferencenetwork.com/peru/


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Week 9 Predictions

      Happy Saturday College Football Fans! Week 8 brought us some great games and big statements from teams all across the nation. Unfortunately it did bring us a very disappointing Husker loss, and I think we all need to move past that one quickly. I don't have much to say other than that being a very bad loss in all phases of the game, so we're going to skip over my reflections this week and head straight to the predictions for Week 9. This week has some fantastic conference games and big rivalries, so expect more chaos as we await the first committee rankings on Tuesday following the games this weekend. Enjoy!


Week 8 Results: 13 - 8

Overall Record: 101 - 47


Week 9 Predictions:

#12 Notre Dame vs #24 Navy

     One of my most anticipated games of the weekend kick's off right away after gameday. I'll have this on with the Huskers starting at 11 and I've got Notre Dame on upset watch. The Midshipmen love to cause headaches for the Irish and their fans, most notably my Uncle Joe. This Navy team is susceptible to the run game, which favors Riley Leonard and company, but they are tough to deal with on the offensive side of the ball. The Midshipmen are averaging 44.8 points per game, which is good enough for 4th in the nation. Notre Dame has only played one offense in the top 20 of points per game (Louisville), so look for this to be a more high-scoring affair. The line on this one is Notre Dame by 2 TDs, but I like Navy to cover. If you haven't yet, be sure to watch Navy QB Blake Horvath for a few drives of this game, he's phenomenal. This feels like a pick where I'm playing for the upset, but I'll take the Irish. A few key stops on defense will be needed, but Notre Dame gets it done at Metlife Stadium 27-23.


Washington at #13 Indiana

     Washington has been up and down this season, but traveling across timezones has not been their friend. They've lost to both Rutgers and Iowa on the road in BIG 10 conference play, and now travel to Bloomington (who is hosting College Gameday for the first time ever) and have to take on the red hot Hoosiers of Indiana. Their offense may cool down a bit with star QB Kurtis Rourke out with a hand injury he suffered last week against Nebraska, but I don't think they'll miss too many steps without him. Backup QB Tayven Jackson will get the nod and looked good against the Huskers in the second half. The Hoosiers will likely rely a bit more on their run game, but they're already averaging 7 yards per carry with RB Justice Ellison and 7.9 yards per carry to Iowa's Kaleb Johnson just two weeks ago. Hoosiers win BIG with Coach Corso back in Bloomington 38-17.


Oklahoma at #18 Ole Miss

     The Sooners have not looked good this season, especially on offense where 128th in the nation in Total Offense. They will need to figure out something quick in this game because Ole Miss ranks 2nd in the nation and will put up a lot of points. South Carolina dropped 35 on OU last week, I think Ole Miss could drop 50. Give me the Rebels to win big at home against the Sooner Schooner that is on fire right now. Rebels 52, Sooners 20


Tulane at North Texas

     The Green Wave and Mean Green are outside shots to take that G5 Playoff spot, but a loss in this game would just about guarantee their fate, especially after the fantastic Boise State/UNLV game last night. Nonetheless, these American Conference powers are creeping up behind Army and Navy, looking to earn a spot in the conference title game. Tulane is fairly balanced on offense, but Sophomore RB Makhi Hughes is an absolute baller, rushing for 5.5 yards per carry and 8 TDs so far this year. Chandler Morris leads the air attack for the Mean Green and threw for 445 with 3 TDs and 1 pick in their loss a week ago to Memphis. He'll be up against the 35th best pass defense in the nation, but I like North Texas to bounce back at home and get the win 40-35.


#20 Illinois at #1 Oregon

     The Ducks are now #1 in the AP Poll and that slot has been a revolving door with Georgia, Bama and Texas all losing when in that spot earlier this year. Oregon's star QB Dillon Gabriel is the player to watch because he's been responsible for 19 TDs this season and can pick apart defenses like a pro. Illinois is no easy defense though, especially up front. They average nearly 3 sacks per game and can force a lot of bad throws and turnovers with their pressure. Oregon has found a very balanced attack on offense by letting Junior RB Jordan James run wild the last couple of weeks, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. If he gets another 20 carries today, Oregon wins this one with ease. For the Illini, Luke Altmeyer makes smart throws as well, and he's got two big bodied receivers to toss it to. Pat Bryant (6'3, 200) and Zakhari Franklin (6'1, 190) are two of the best receivers in the conference at providing a large catch radius for their QB. They will need to have a big night and Altmeyer needs to throw it quick because Oregon's pass rush is one of the best, especially at home in Autzen Stadium. Give me the Ducks with a dominant performance on the line of scrimmage to win at home 30-17.


#11 BYU at UCF

     The Cougars had a bit of a scare last week at home against Oklahoma State, but pulled that one out of the fire thanks to the magic of star QB Jake Retzlaff. Now they go on the road to a hungry UCF team that nearly knocked off the Cyclones and have a powerful rushing attack behind Senior RB RJ Harvey. Harvey is toting the pill 6.7 yards per carry with 890 yards and 11 TDs on the season. Ollie Gordon racked up 107 and 2 TDs on his own last week against the Cougar defense, so look for them to try and add extra men to the box to slow down the run game. Jake Retzlaff is my x-factor though, because Rocco Becht was just that last week against UCF. Despite a couple of interceptions, he threw for 274 yards with a TD and rushed for another 97 and 2 TDs. His dual-threat ability gave the Knights headaches all night and Retzlaff can do similar things. His ability to break out of the pocket and extend plays wins BYU the game 33-27.


#21 Missouri at #15 Alabama

     Alabama has lost two games before November for the first time since 2007. An absolutely bonkers stat that shows more than anything the dominance of Nick Saban. The Tide now welcome a Missouri team that is looking for a bit more identity after they fell hard in the polls a couple of weeks ago from their beat down by A&M. This is a good bounce back game for Alabama after losing to rival Tennessee on Rocky Top this morning. However, Mizzou is coming off back-to-back wins. They will be without their leading rusher and the defense has been susceptible to big plays, ranking 73rd in the nation with 26 plays of 20+ yards or more. I think the Tide Roll with a bounce back game for the offense. Alabama 30, Mizzou 14.


#5 Texas at #25 Vanderbilt

     The Longhorns looked shell-shocked while playing against Georgia at home, losing 30-15. Vanderbilt has already knocked off Alabama, and now host Texas to their construction site. The Commodores have a very dangerous man at QB with Diego Pavia. He's the leading rusher on the team with 470 yards to go with his 3 TDs and then throwing for nearly 1,400 yards with 11 TDs and 1 pick. He takes care of the ball with smart throws and they are one of the best offenses on third down. Vanderbilt ranks 6th in the nation, converting more than 52% of their third downs. The Texas defense allows just under 29% of third downs to be converted, so that's the big key in this game. Even Georgia only converted 35% last week, but Diego Pavia is difficult to contain. Texas might have some QB issues too as Quinn Ewers was pulled out for a couple series in favor of Arch Manning against the Bulldogs last week, so Vandy could easily see both QBs and Ewers will be looking over his shoulder if he's not playing well. I would love for lightening to strike twice and for the Commodores to beat another top 5 team this season, but I'll go with the Horns to Hook 'Em. This one is closer than the spread though, so put some respect on Vandy's name. Texas 31, Vanderbilt 20.


Florida State at #6 Miami

     This game originally looked like it would be a matchup with big ACC Championship implications at the beginning of the year, but now it's just an opportunity for Miami to provide a beat down on the disaster that is Florida State Football this season. Cam Ward is on his way to a Heisman Finalist invite and has another prime time slot to dazzle in. FSU is just looking to get out of 2024 and move into the offseason which will include a lot of rebuilding. Ward lights it up for big numbers and Miami wins 37-10.


Michigan State at Michigan

     Sparty is coming off a big win against Iowa while the Wolverines are licking their wounds from a road loss at Illinois. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and a rivalry game could push either one over the edge. Michigan has looked very mediocre at best this season, and still are trying to figure out the QB situation. Michigan State has some playmakers around QB Aidan Chiles, but he's the true x-factor of this game. If he takes care of the ball, Sparty's offense can be deadly. If he does not Michigan could take advantage of some turnovers. Both teams have been horrendous in the turnover category, with Michigan State sitting at -6 and Michigan at -7. I'll take the Wolverines since they're at home, but this will be a grimey BIG 10 game. Wolverines beat Sparty 23-17.


Kansas at #16 Kansas State (Sunflower Showdown)

     The Jayhawks and Wildcats meet for the 122nd time today which ranks them 9th for all-time rivalry meetings. Kansas has really fallen short of expectations, sitting at 2-5 and blowing multiple leads in games so far this season. They're coming off their first win since the opening week, beating Houston 42-14 last week. Unfortunately for them, K-State is starting to figure things out and have had three strong performances since their flop out in Provo. QB Avery Johnson is making much better reads in the pocket and Junior RB DJ Giddens paces a rushing attack that averages over 222 yards per game, best for 9th in the nation thus far. KU has a top tier RB of their own in Devin Neal, but I don't think they'll keep pace or slow down the Wildcats offense. K-State wins the Sunflower Showdown 38-20.


#22 SMU at Duke

     The Ponies are unbeaten in ACC play and have a path to the championship in Charlotte if they keep up their current pace. Duke stands in their way next, and the Blue Devils just beat Florida State for the first time in program history. These teams are very similar on the stat sheet on both sides of the ball, but one in particular could be the back-breaker in this game. The Blue Devils rank 44th in the nation with just 5.6 penalties per game on average, while SMU ranks 129th with 7.9 penalties per game on average. If the Ponies can clean up the flags, they can win this game on the road and set themselves up for a big November run. The QB battle is one to watch with Kevin Jennings and Maalik Murphy, but give me SMU to continue their ACC victory tour. SMU 34, Duke 24.


#3 Penn State at Wisconsin

     A BIG 10 Showdown in Madtown is set to take place under the lights as Penn State visits the now hot Wisconsin Badgers. They've had a lot to jump around about lately in Camp Randall as they've won 3 straight and are averaging 39 points per game in the last three weeks. Penn State is off a BYE week, but James Franklin is 5-6 after BYE weeks coaching at Penn State. Trap game potential with a game against the Buckeyes next for the Nittany Lions, but I think they handle the Badgers. Their defense will cause a more formidable pass rush against Wisconsin and force some turnovers. Nittany Lions 28, Badgers 14.


#8 LSU at #14 Texas A&M

     The Aggies host LSU for an SEC rivalry that gives the winner the inside track to the SEC Championship Game. Both of these squads are unbeaten in conference play, and after being written off early from the Notre Dame loss, Mike Elko has this Aggies Squad as a dangerous playoff lurking team. The only issue is they are hot and cold with their performances. QB Connor Weigman is completing just 61.5% of his passes and has 3 TDs with 4 picks. He did miss a couple of games with an injury, but you never really know what kind of game he's going to play. He's facing a Tigers squad that has 24 sacks on the season and loves to create pressure. This is a much improved defense under Brian Kelley, so look for them to cause havoc despite the 12th man. Offensively, Garrett Nussmeier is quietly having a stellar year in the SEC with 2,222 passing yards, 18 TDs and 6 picks. He doesn't have much of a run game to lean on, so don't be surprised if he's throwing 40+ passes tonight. I like this game a lot and they're usually thrillers. Both teams have a great chance to win this, but give me the Tigers and their pass rush to win in Aggieland. LSU 36, Texas A&M 33.


Nebraska at #4 Ohio State

     The Huskers and Buckeyes both need this win to get a bad taste out of their mouth. Ohio State has been sitting on their Oregon loss for two weeks thanks to their BYE week, while the Huskers are on the road for back-to-back weeks after getting SMACKED by Indiana. The Huskers cannot get anything moving on the ground, which allows the opposing defense to send extra pressure against Dylan Raiola. He's still learning a lot about reading defenses and how best to pick them apart. Protection has become an issue over the last couple of weeks with the Huskers giving up 13 sacks over the last 4 games. Ohio State will look to create pressure and force turnovers, keeping the playmakers on the sideline for the Huskers. Defensively, the Blackshirts were shredded against Indiana. The Hoosiers ran through them with their running back averaging 11.7 yards per carry last week. Now you have Quinshon Judkins and TreyVeon Henderson running at you? Not a great way to bounce back. Huskers need to force some turnovers to have a chance in this one, but hopefully it's not as ugly as last week. Buckeyes 38, Nebraska 7. Prove me wrong Huskers!


Quick Hit Predictions:

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech - Hokies at home after a couple extra days of rest, they win 30-20.

Northwestern at Iowa - This will either be a close, disgusting BIG 10 West type game, or Iowa rolls 38-7 for no reason. Give me the Hawkeyes big at home.

Maryland at Minnesota - The Terps have fallen off this season but built a masterful comeback against the Trojans last week. I do like Minnesota at home following a BYE week though. Gophers win 26-17.

Oklahoma State at Baylor - The Pokes are a train-wreck this year in the Big XII and Dave Aranda is coaching to save his job right now. Give me the Bears at home. Sic'em for 34-30.

Texas Tech at TCU - The Red Raiders fell to Baylor last week in a bit of a stunner while TCU upset Utah late Saturday night for a stunner of their own. This one is a toss up but lots of points. Give me the Frogs 46-42.

Oregon State at Cal - Former PAC-12 foes square off in a non-conference battle. The Golden Bears have dropped 4 straight since starting ACC play, by a combined 9 points. The Beavers are spiraling though, so Cal bounces back 30-17.

Cincinnati at Colorado - The Buffs are getting hot led by Shedeur Sanders and a high-powered offense. Cincy had a big win against Arizona State, but they don't have enough firepower to keep up in this one. Buffaloes continue their rise in the Big XII with a 33-23 win.


Thanks for reading my Week 9 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! GO BIG RED!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Week 8 Predictions

      Happy Saturday Football Fans and welcome to Week 8! The Week 7 slate did not disappoint last week, but we could see even better games this week. Plus, my Huskers are playing so it's already a step up. I will have predictions for all the games you should know about this weekend along with a few of the best bets you can make as part of my "Perfect Parlay" for the week. Enjoy the picks and your college football Saturday.


Week 7 Results: 15 - 4

Overall Results: 88 - 39


Week 8 Predictions:

#6 Miami at Louisville (Battle for the Schnellenberger Trophy)

     The Cardiac 'Canes take their unbeaten record on the road again as Louisville looks to upset the top team in the ACC. There's a pair of Howard's Schnellenberger's actual boots that have been bronzed up for grabs as the two teams honor their former coach. A stellar QB battle will take place as Cam Ward and Tyler Shough sling it all over the place. Ward has more than 2,200 yards with 20 TDs and just 5 picks while Shough has nearly 1,700 yards with 14 TDs and 3 picks. They are both great to watch, and I could see this game with a lot of points. Miami seems like they can't lose this season, so I'll take the 'Canes to win this one 31-21.


Arizona State at Cincinnati

     Ex-Husker Quarterback Jeff Sims is set to start for the Sun Devils, so Cincy once again has an opportunity for turnovers in this one. They're just +1 on the season, but from witnessing the Jeff Sims experience first-hand, that number can increase for a defense quickly. However, Sims does have a very stellar back to rely on in Cam Skattebo. The Senior is averaging just under 6 yards per carry with over 1,000 total yards this season, both receiving and rushing with 8 TDs. He's rushed for 360 yards in the past two weeks and is the game breaker in this one. Give me the Sun Devils behind another big Skattebo performance. Arizona State 26, Cincy 21.


Louisiana at Coastal Carolina

     There's still a lot to be decided in the Sun Belt Conference, and two of the best are set to battle in Conway, SC. The Chanticleers need to bounce back after being crushed by JMU 39-7 last week, while Louisiana handled Appalachian State 34-24. Coastal really struggled to get their run game going, but that will be a big deciding factor in today's game. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 71st in the nation, so there is ground to be gained. I like the Chanticleers coming back home, but this should be a close game. Coastal Carolina wins 28-24.


North Texas at Memphis

     The Mean Green & Tigers are both looking to keep pace with Army & Navy in the American conference race and need this win. Memphis is trying to get back into G5 playoff picture. Both offenses can put up points quickly, and Senior RB Mario Anderson Jr. is a problem to deal with on the Tigers' side. He's rushed for 456 yards with 8 TDs this season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The Mean Green are led by Chandler Morris on offense, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards, 20 TDs and 7 picks. The Memphis defense is my key to watch in this game. They rank 21st in total defense and have a +8 turnover margin this season. Tigers win it with turnovers 36-24.


#7 Alabama at #11 Tennessee

     It's the third Saturday in October, which means the winner of Alabama & Tennessee gets to smoke victory cigars on Rocky Top this evening. Both teams have struggled the last couple weeks and need this win to stay toward the top of the SEC race with a lot of schedule still left. For Alabama, their offense needs to be more creative. Right now they have two plays: Jalen Milroe run or Jalen Milroe pass to Ryan Williams. They have so many weapons, but being able to get them the ball effectively in space has been very tricky. Tennessee needs to lean on their run game and feed Dylan Sampson to take pressure off of QB Nico Iamaleava. Sampson averages 5.9 yards per carry and has rushed for 100+ in every game this season separate of Oklahoma and has racked up 15 TDs. The rest of the Vols' offense has not done much in recent weeks so this game is all about who gets out of the funk quicker. I am not fully convinced on either squad yet, but I'll take the tide to win at Rocky Top. They have too much dominance in this rivalry, but this should be a good one. Roll Tide 30-24.


#12 Notre Dame at Georgia Tech

     The Fighting Irish travel to Atlanta to take on the very upset-minded Rambling Wreck. The Yellow Jackets have been battle tested throughout the ACC thus far in the season, but Notre Dame is looking to stay in the playoff hunt and needs quality wins. Georgia Tech ranks 23rd in the nation against the run, so Riley Leonard and crew will have their work cut out for them. Defensively is where Notre Dame holds the edge, especially with 16 sacks on the season. They need to find a way to get pressure though because they've only given up once sack all season, that's the best protection in the nation. Haynes King is out again this week with an injury, but Irish need to be careful in this one because GT can get their offense moving quick if you don't get them off script. I'll take the Irish close on the road 28-20.


#24 Michigan at #22 Illinois

     The Wolverines are trying out a third QB in Senior Jack Tuttle as they travel to Champagne to take on Illinois. Michigan is coming off a BYE and Illinois is coming off a 1-point OT Thriller after nearly losing to Purdue. The Big Blue still have a dominant defense, but Luke Altmeyer has been hot all season long. He still has just 1 pick while throwing 14 TDs and completing 67.7% of his passes. Turnovers will be the difference maker in this one and the squads are -4 (Michigan) and +4 (Illinois). Can't believe this is the case, but give me the Fighting Illini to beat the Wolverines. Illinois wins at home 27-24.


Colorado at Arizona

     The Buffs travel to the desert to take on Arizona in an offensive shootout waiting to happen. Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs average nearly 400 yards per game and Arizona has potential to do the same. Both teams feature two of the best wideouts in the nation with Travis Hunter and Tetaiora McMillan. We could even see them line up against each other when Travis Hunter is on defense. Coming into the season, I had high hopes for the Wildcats' offense, but Noah Fafita has struggled with turnovers, throwing 9 interceptions so far this year. Give me the Prime Time Buffs to win on the road 34-31.


#8 LSU at Arkansas (Battle for the Golden Boot)

     The Tigers and Hogs battle for the Golden Boot trophy in the shape of the two states of Arkansas and Louisiana. The Tigers are coming off a big win at home against Ole Miss, but now deal with an Arkansas team that has already knocked off Tennessee a couple of weeks ago and are healthy off a BYE. Garrett Nussmeier is basically all of the offense for LSU as their run game has been less than mediocre this season. The Hogs' defense allows just 33% of opponent third downs to be converted while the Tigers average a conversion rate of 48%. I've got LSU on upset watch, but they win the Golden Boot by beating the Hogs 26-21.


#17 Kansas State at West Virginia

     The Wildcats are back in the Big XII race despite their beat down to BYU a few weeks ago but have another tough road test at West Virginia. They snuck out a late game victory against Colorado in Boulder last week and now head the other direction to the Appalachians. West Virginia has been a tough team all season long, but gave up some games with poor defensive tackling late in the game. You need everyone on your defense to tackle if you want to beat K-State, because the Wildcats average nearly 250 yards per game on the ground. Junior RB DJ Giddens made Colorado's defense look like swiss cheese last week with 182 yards on the ground by himself. I like West Virginia to hang around, but much like their game against Iowa State last week, K-State will pull away at the end with a rugged ground game. Cats win on the road for the second straight week 27-14.


#1 South Dakota State at #2 North Dakota State (Battle for the Dakota Marker)

     The two best FCS teams meet in the Fargo Dome for a Dakota Duel leading to the inside track to the #1 seed. Both teams have been rolling through their schedules since losing openers to FBS opponents. This is always a fun game to watch and is the first meeting between these two in a prime time slot on ESPN. Always love the Bison until they play my home state team. GO JACKS! SDSU wins the marker 37-34.


#5 Georgia at #1 Texas

     The Bulldogs and Longhorns meet for the first time as SEC opponents. Texas looks to roll with Quinn Ewers spinning the rock as he is back in his second game from an oblique injury. The offense has so many dynamic players and Georgia's defense will be tested once again. They were gashed by Alabama early in that game in Tuscaloosa, so look for them to put early pressure on Ewers to try and counter that. Offensively, it lies upon the shoulders of Carson Beck. I never have been very impressed by him as it's typically the weapons he has around him, but he'll need to make plays on his own in this game if they want to win. If Carson Beck can make some key plays with his legs, that will keep Texas' defense on their heels and open up more passing lanes. The Longhorns have all the hype and all the belief that they are the best team. Now is the time to prove it, but UGA doesn't lose often. Give me the Horns to stay unbeaten. Hook 'Em for 34-30.


Nebraska at #16 Indiana

     The Huskers are back in action against the undefeated Hoosiers on the road. Nebraska has not beaten a ranked team on the road since 2011, so history will need to be changed for the Huskers to win this game. Luckily, they've got a top notch defense and are fresh off a BYE week for an offense that needed to gather itself. The Blackshirts have yet to give up a rushing TD on the season, and slate up against the Indiana offense ranking 4th in the nation in total yards. They have not played much competition though, so this is arguably the first real test for the Hoosiers. Former JMU Coach Curt Cignetti now leads Indiana and has quickly brought his winning culture to Bloomington. This team is nasty up front, averaging over 5 yards per carry, very well disciplined, averaging just 5.8 penalties per game and they do not let off the gas. Nebraska needs to protect Dylan Raiola in this game and give him clean lanes to pass in. Husker Wideouts needs to create separation and be more aggressive like earlier games in the season. Without key offensive production, Nebraska won't be able to keep pace in this game, even with a solid performance from the Blackshirts. This is one of the games that has made me nervous on the schedule, so I hope I'm wrong. Indiana defeats Nebraska 27-21. I'll be cheering for the road upset so GO BIG RED!


Quick Hit Predictions:

Virginia at #10 Clemson - The Cavs couldn't quite hang on against the Cardinals last week and now travel to Death Valley against a Tiger team that is ROLLING. Clemson 40, Virginia 10.

Wisconsin at Northwestern - Badgers are starting to figure things out on offense and have dominated lower level opponents. Wisconsin 38, Northwestern 10.

South Carolina at Oklahoma - Gamecocks nearly mounted a comeback against Alabama and Oklahoma still doesn't have much for offense. Give me Rocket Sanders with a big game for the Gamecock victory 25-20.

USC at Maryland - Trojans are not adjusting well to BIG 10 play and now have to travel across the country to take on the Terps. Talent will win out here, but keep an eye on this game if Maryland gets some turnovers. Fight On as USC wins 33-24.

UCF at #9 Iowa State - The Cyclones are quietly rolling through the Big XII and have a favorable schedule to get to the Championship with little resistance. This defense is legit and they shut down UCF for a 27-14 victory.

Iowa at Michigan State - Somehow the Hawkeyes have an offense that can score, despite Cade McNamara being very limited by the forward passing concepts of modern college football. Kaleb Johnson is a menace though, and he'll rumble for a couple more scores. Iowa 28, Michigan State 14.

#21 SMU at Stanford - The Ponies are getting hot and could find their way into the ACC Championship if they keep on this pace. Give me more of SMU, they win 33-14 on the Farm.

TCU at Utah - Frogs off a BYE after getting smacked by Houston, Utes off the upset from Arizona State. Both teams need it, but I'll take Utah at home 20-13.


The Perfect Parlay:

1. Army -16 at home against East Carolina. The Black Knights have only one game on the season that has been within 20 points and that was their 17-point win against FAU. East Carolina gave up 55 to Charlotte two weeks ago ahead of their BYE. Don't mess with the military men, Army covers easy.

2. Navy -16 at home against Charlotte. Much like their rivals, the Midshipmen have just one game that was within two scores, their 12-point shootout with Memphis. Every other game has been dominated by the Mid-shipmen, and Charlotte gives up an average of 31.7 points per game. Navy also covers easy.

3. Iowa State - 13 at home against UCF. The Cyclones defense has been dominant this season, giving up just 11 points per game. The Knights of UCF have scored just 13 in each of their last two games. Combined with the offensive weapons Iowa State has and I like this cover by two TDs.


Thanks for reading my Week 8 Predictions and I hope you enjoy all the great football coming your way today. GO BIG RED!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando