Welcome to Week 12 and mid-November Football! Just a few weeks away from the end of the regular season and the Playoff race has one of the craziest set ups we've ever seen. This is where the upsets happen, and the best teams need to be careful of a stumble. I've got all the big games for you to watch today, so read on to my predictions and enjoy!
Week 11 Record: 11 - 7
Overall Record: 143 - 64
Week 12 Predictions:
#3 Texas at Arkansas
An old Southwest Conference rivalry renews as the Longhorns travel to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs. Arkansas is upset-minded and already beat Tennessee at home earlier this season. Texas is looking smooth as they seemingly scored at will against Florida last week. Quinn Ewers threw for 333 yards and 5 TDs, and Arkansas ranks 58th in pass defense. Offensively, the Hogs need to play one of their best games and keep ahold of the ball. QB Taylen Green certainly has the talent, but he'll need the best game of his young career tonight to upset the Horns. Lots of opportunity for the Texas offense as they start to get hot, and I don't think the Hogs have enough to keep pace with the scoring. If they muck up this game it will get interesting, but I'll say Hook 'Em as they inch closer to that Lone Star Showdown. Texas 35, Arkansas 23.
Utah at #17 Colorado
The Utes and Buffaloes have gone very different directions this season, and not in the way we all thought. Utah is on a 5-game losing streak and fell short of upsetting BYU at home in the Holy War last week. Colorado comes in with a very clear path to the playoff if they take care of business. Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State stand in their way, and despite all of those teams not living up to their 2024 expectations, they're more than capable of upsets. Utah's defense will cause some headaches as usual, but their offense is too much of a mess. It pains me, but Colorado inches closer to a playoff bit with a win on the road behind great play from Shedeur and Travis Hunter. Buffaloes win 23-17.
#25 Tulane at Navy
The Green Wave can punch their ticket to the American Conference Championship against Army with a win over Navy today. The Midshipmen have fallen off quickly the last couple of weeks since getting ranked and then obliterated by Notre Dame. Tulane ranks 4th in the nation in scoring with 41.0 points per game. Navy has been able to control the clock better and hold teams to fewer points in recent weeks, but running with Tulane is tough. Give me the Green Wave with the ground game of Sophomore RB Makhi Hughes. He's got 1,209 yards and 13 TDs to his name with a 5.7 yard per carry average. He'll ground and pound Tulane to victory 30-21.
Boston College at #14 SMU
The Ponies are alone atop the ACC after Miami's stumble last week. They're on their way to the ACC Championship with a potential Playoff BYE awaiting them, yet are still ranked OUTSIDE of the College Football Playoffs top 12. Their only loss is a 3-point defeat to unbeaten, #6 BYU, yet the disrespect continues. I'm all in with the ponies and despite Boston College switching QBs, I think the Pony Express is back and rolling like the 1980's. The Eagles are always a dangerous and upset type team in the ACC, but SMU has too much offense with Kevin Jennings (a future Heisman finalist next season). Pony Up as they win 38-21.
#22 LSU at Florida
Both the Tigers and the Gators are coming off beat downs last week by the hands of Alabama and Texas. They're both in need of a win, and this battle in the swamp should be a fun one. Not sure if we'll see any shoe throws, but we will see the ball thrown quite a bit. The Tigers rank 7th in passing offense and Garrett Nussmeier should pass 3,000 passing yards on the season in this game and add to his 21 TDs. He does have 11 picks so far this season, 5 of them coming in their last two games against A&M and Alabama. Florida has 10 picks on the year, so look for them to force more mistakes by Nussmeier. I think LSU is a step ahead of Florida in terms of roster development, so I'll give them the edge, but this should be a closer game. Tigers beat the Gators 31-27.
#23 Missouri at #21 South Carolina
The Tigers and the Gamecocks are sitting in the middle of the pack in the SEC, but oddly enough Missouri could still find themselves in the mix due to the chaos scenario of the SEC tiebreakers. The Tigers need to win out to be part of the conversation, and South Carolina has had a habit of not letting opponents walk out of Williams-Brice Stadium with a victory. They're on a 3-game win streak and nearly knocked off Bama back in October. Mizzou QB Brady Cook is a game-time decision, but South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers is ready to roll and he's coming off a game where he completed 70% of his passes for 238 and 2 TDs against Vanderbilt along with another 38 yards on the ground. He'll have another big day and the Gamecocks knock off the Tigers 33-24.
#13 Boise State at San Jose State
The nation's leading rusher (Ashton Jeanty) and the nation's leading receiver (Nick Nash) lead their respective offenses in what should be a shootout in the Mountain West. Boise is the favorite to get the G5 Bid into the playoffs, but don't sleep on the Spartans. They should've been in the conference championship a year ago, but tie breakers kept them at home. They have work to do to get back there, but hosting Boise State is a big advantage. The Broncos road games are typically much closer, but I can't go against the Heisman Finalist of Ashton Jeanty. Broncos continue to roll as Jeanty runs wild again. Boise State 30, San Jose State 24.
Arizona State at #16 Kansas State
The Sun Devils are very quietly sitting at 7-2 with a ranked opponent next on their schedule. They need some help before they're in the conversation for the Big XII Championship, but Kenny Dillingham's second season at the head spot in Tempe is going much better than anticipated. The running backs will be the feature of this game as Cam Skattebo and DJ Giddens lead their respective teams offensively. Both backs average around 6 yards per carry, and can catch well out of the backfield. That's a big help for their young QBs Sam Leavitt (FR) and Avery Johnson (SO), as they continue to develop in their first full season starting. I like K-State to bounce back after their BYE, but this should be a fun game to watch if you get the chance. Wildcats 35, Sun Devils 28.
#1 Oregon at Wisconsin
The #1 Ducks travel to Camp Randall for a night game with the Badgers. Autzen Stadium is one of the loudest atmosphere in College Football, but Oregon has yet to experience what a rowdy bunch of Badgers can do when they start jumping around. Luke Fickell has been trying to find some rhythm in year 2 leading the Badgers, but it hasn't been the smoothest transition back into the BIG 10. They've beaten the teams they're supposed to, but have struggled against top tier opponents (and Iowa, they're not top tier, but they dominated). Oregon has been the smoothest looking team all season, especially at the line of scrimmage. They rank 33rd in rush defense and star RB Jordan James is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Dillon Gabriel gets all the hype (and it is deserved) for his nearly 3,000 passing yards with a 22:5 TD to INT ratio, but Jordan James is my X-factor every time Oregon plays. This guy grinds out all the first downs they need and protects the rock. That will be key in a BIG 10 grudge match, especially because Wisconsin loves to own the trenches. Oregon will find a new appreciation for the BIG 10 in this game, but I like the Ducks to flex their muscles and take over in the second half. Oregon continues to win 27-14.
#7 Tennessee at #12 Georgia
The big game of the week takes place between the hedges as Georgia returns to Athens for a their first home game in 37 days. The Tennessee Volunteers are sitting atop the SEC and have a very clear path to the playoffs...if they beat Georgia. That means the "clearness" of that path is about as see through as mud. The Bulldogs are coming off a beat down in the rain by the Rebels, and are still struggling on offense. Carson Beck continues to throw interceptions and despite all the analysts making excuses for him, I TOLD Y'ALL! He is hurting this Georgia team and I'm not sure they can win much more with him. Their defense has a tough task with another high-powered offense coming in, this time with the ground game. Nothing taken away from Nico Iamaleava, but Dylan Sampson is the focal point of this offense. He's rushed for 1,129 yards with 20 TDs on the ground this season. Georgia ranks 21st against the run and a bounce back night game at home is just what they needed. I think Georgia takes care of business, plus that leads to more chaos with the SEC having so many teams tied atop the conference. I want Tennessee, but I want the chaos more, give me the DAWGS to win at home with defense. Georgia 31, Tennessee 20.
Nebraska at USC
The weird vibes game is set for an afternoon kickoff out in Southern California. The Huskers and Trojans are both coming out of a BYE week and are expected to look very different when they take the field. Starting with my Huskers, Nebraska now has former WVU and Houston Head Coach, Dana Holgersen, calling the plays as the new OC. A mid-season OC change is always odd, but especially with just 3 weeks to go and when he was assisting at TCU earlier this year. Dylan Raiola hasn't practiced much due to the injury he suffered against UCLA, so we could be in for some Haarburg time as Husker Fans. From what I've heard from folks at practice, the playbook will be simplified and is running all through Holgersen. Hopefully there's a bit more effort to establish the run game, but I'm guessing anything new will be a refreshing feeling for Husker fans. Unfortunately USC made changes of their own, and that comes at the QB position. Miller Moss has been benched after the Trojan offense was lacking the typical explosiveness we've been accustomed to seeing from them. Former UNLV Rebel, Jayden Maiava is now in command and his rushing ability outside of the pocket is what scares me the most. Lincoln Riley is wanting his offense to look more like the Caleb Williams days, so a dual-threat QB like Maiava could be the key he's looking for. Nebraska does not fare well against QBs who run, so the Blackshirts will have their hands full with very little film on their opponent. I woke up with a bad feeling about this game and I'm just not sure a 2 week Offensive Coordinator will be enough for the Huskers to flip the script. Jayden Maiava leads the Trojans and they win at home 31-24. I really hope Holgersen can prove me wrong!
Quick Hit Predictions:
Cincy at Iowa State - Cyclones are spiraling in the wrong direction but turnovers doomed the Bearcats last week. Both teams need a rebound win, but I'll take the home team. ISU wins 35-27.
Kansas at #6 BYU - The Jayhawks were spoilers to Iowa State last week, but now travel to Provo to attempt and play spoiler again. BYU has so many dangerously close games, but I've got the Cougars staying unbeaten. BYU wins 38-28.
#20 Clemson at Pitt - Pitt QB Eli Holstein is out and that's about all you need to know. Clemson back to dominating lower level teams and they win 38-14.
Michigan State at Illinois - The Spartans have a favorable schedule to make a bowl game as Illinois is the toughest team left on their schedule and the only road game. Both teams are sitting on their losses from two weeks ago coming out of the BYE, so motivation is high. I like Altmeyer to play better than Chiles, so give me Illinois at home 27-21.
Baylor at West Virginia - Both teams are 1 win away from bowl eligibility, but the offenses are inconsistent. I'll take the Mountaineers to play well at home, but I do think Baylor gets bowl eligible to let Dave Aranda keep his job. WVU 34, Baylor 27.
Virginia at #8 Notre Dame - The Irish are just a few wins away from a playoff birth. A sneaky Virginia team stands in their way this week as the Cavs have pulled a couple of upsets but almost always cover the spread. If you're betting have them cover, but I've got the Irish winning 40-28.
Thanks for reading my Week 12 Predictions and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando