Saturday, November 16, 2024

Week 12 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 12 and mid-November Football! Just a few weeks away from the end of the regular season and the Playoff race has one of the craziest set ups we've ever seen. This is where the upsets happen, and the best teams need to be careful of a stumble. I've got all the big games for you to watch today, so read on to my predictions and enjoy!


Week 11 Record: 11 - 7

Overall Record: 143 - 64


Week 12 Predictions:

#3 Texas at Arkansas

     An old Southwest Conference rivalry renews as the Longhorns travel to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs. Arkansas is upset-minded and already beat Tennessee at home earlier this season. Texas is looking smooth as they seemingly scored at will against Florida last week. Quinn Ewers threw for 333 yards and 5 TDs, and Arkansas ranks 58th in pass defense. Offensively, the Hogs need to play one of their best games and keep ahold of the ball. QB Taylen Green certainly has the talent, but he'll need the best game of his young career tonight to upset the Horns. Lots of opportunity for the Texas offense as they start to get hot, and I don't think the Hogs have enough to keep pace with the scoring. If they muck up this game it will get interesting, but I'll say Hook 'Em as they inch closer to that Lone Star Showdown. Texas 35, Arkansas 23.


Utah at #17 Colorado

     The Utes and Buffaloes have gone very different directions this season, and not in the way we all thought. Utah is on a 5-game losing streak and fell short of upsetting BYU at home in the Holy War last week. Colorado comes in with a very clear path to the playoff if they take care of business. Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State stand in their way, and despite all of those teams not living up to their 2024 expectations, they're more than capable of upsets. Utah's defense will cause some headaches as usual, but their offense is too much of a mess. It pains me, but Colorado inches closer to a playoff bit with a win on the road behind great play from Shedeur and Travis Hunter. Buffaloes win 23-17.


#25 Tulane at Navy

     The Green Wave can punch their ticket to the American Conference Championship against Army with a win over Navy today. The Midshipmen have fallen off quickly the last couple of weeks since getting ranked and then obliterated by Notre Dame. Tulane ranks 4th in the nation in scoring with 41.0 points per game. Navy has been able to control the clock better and hold teams to fewer points in recent weeks, but running with Tulane is tough. Give me the Green Wave with the ground game of Sophomore RB Makhi Hughes. He's got 1,209 yards and 13 TDs to his name with a 5.7 yard per carry average. He'll ground and pound Tulane to victory 30-21.


Boston College at #14 SMU

     The Ponies are alone atop the ACC after Miami's stumble last week. They're on their way to the ACC Championship with a potential Playoff BYE awaiting them, yet are still ranked OUTSIDE of the College Football Playoffs top 12. Their only loss is a 3-point defeat to unbeaten, #6 BYU, yet the disrespect continues. I'm all in with the ponies and despite Boston College switching QBs, I think the Pony Express is back and rolling like the 1980's. The Eagles are always a dangerous and upset type team in the ACC, but SMU has too much offense with Kevin Jennings (a future Heisman finalist next season). Pony Up as they win 38-21.


#22 LSU at Florida

     Both the Tigers and the Gators are coming off beat downs last week by the hands of Alabama and Texas. They're both in need of a win, and this battle in the swamp should be a fun one. Not sure if we'll see any shoe throws, but we will see the ball thrown quite a bit. The Tigers rank 7th in passing offense and Garrett Nussmeier should pass 3,000 passing yards on the season in this game and add to his 21 TDs. He does have 11 picks so far this season, 5 of them coming in their last two games against A&M and Alabama. Florida has 10 picks on the year, so look for them to force more mistakes by Nussmeier. I think LSU is a step ahead of Florida in terms of roster development, so I'll give them the edge, but this should be a closer game. Tigers beat the Gators 31-27.


#23 Missouri at #21 South Carolina

     The Tigers and the Gamecocks are sitting in the middle of the pack in the SEC, but oddly enough Missouri could still find themselves in the mix due to the chaos scenario of the SEC tiebreakers. The Tigers need to win out to be part of the conversation, and South Carolina has had a habit of not letting opponents walk out of Williams-Brice Stadium with a victory. They're on a 3-game win streak and nearly knocked off Bama back in October. Mizzou QB Brady Cook is a game-time decision, but South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers is ready to roll and he's coming off a game where he completed 70% of his passes for 238 and 2 TDs against Vanderbilt along with another 38 yards on the ground. He'll have another big day and the Gamecocks knock off the Tigers 33-24.


#13 Boise State at San Jose State

     The nation's leading rusher (Ashton Jeanty) and the nation's leading receiver (Nick Nash) lead their respective offenses in what should be a shootout in the Mountain West. Boise is the favorite to get the G5 Bid into the playoffs, but don't sleep on the Spartans. They should've been in the conference championship a year ago, but tie breakers kept them at home. They have work to do to get back there, but hosting Boise State is a big advantage. The Broncos road games are typically much closer, but I can't go against the Heisman Finalist of Ashton Jeanty. Broncos continue to roll as Jeanty runs wild again. Boise State 30, San Jose State 24.


Arizona State at #16 Kansas State

     The Sun Devils are very quietly sitting at 7-2 with a ranked opponent next on their schedule. They need some help before they're in the conversation for the Big XII Championship, but Kenny Dillingham's second season at the head spot in Tempe is going much better than anticipated. The running backs will be the feature of this game as Cam Skattebo and DJ Giddens lead their respective teams offensively. Both backs average around 6 yards per carry, and can catch well out of the backfield. That's a big help for their young QBs Sam Leavitt (FR) and Avery Johnson (SO), as they continue to develop in their first full season starting. I like K-State to bounce back after their BYE, but this should be a fun game to watch if you get the chance. Wildcats 35, Sun Devils 28.


#1 Oregon at Wisconsin

     The #1 Ducks travel to Camp Randall for a night game with the Badgers. Autzen Stadium is one of the loudest atmosphere in College Football, but Oregon has yet to experience what a rowdy bunch of Badgers can do when they start jumping around. Luke Fickell has been trying to find some rhythm in year 2 leading the Badgers, but it hasn't been the smoothest transition back into the BIG 10. They've beaten the teams they're supposed to, but have struggled against top tier opponents (and Iowa, they're not top tier, but they dominated). Oregon has been the smoothest looking team all season, especially at the line of scrimmage. They rank 33rd in rush defense and star RB Jordan James is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Dillon Gabriel gets all the hype (and it is deserved) for his nearly 3,000 passing yards with a 22:5 TD to INT ratio, but Jordan James is my X-factor every time Oregon plays. This guy grinds out all the first downs they need and protects the rock. That will be key in a BIG 10 grudge match, especially because Wisconsin loves to own the trenches. Oregon will find a new appreciation for the BIG 10 in this game, but I like the Ducks to flex their muscles and take over in the second half. Oregon continues to win 27-14.


#7 Tennessee at #12 Georgia

     The big game of the week takes place between the hedges as Georgia returns to Athens for a their first home game in 37 days. The Tennessee Volunteers are sitting atop the SEC and have a very clear path to the playoffs...if they beat Georgia. That means the "clearness" of that path is about as see through as mud. The Bulldogs are coming off a beat down in the rain by the Rebels, and are still struggling on offense. Carson Beck continues to throw interceptions and despite all the analysts making excuses for him, I TOLD Y'ALL! He is hurting this Georgia team and I'm not sure they can win much more with him. Their defense has a tough task with another high-powered offense coming in, this time with the ground game. Nothing taken away from Nico Iamaleava, but Dylan Sampson is the focal point of this offense. He's rushed for 1,129 yards with 20 TDs on the ground this season. Georgia ranks 21st against the run and a bounce back night game at home is just what they needed. I think Georgia takes care of business, plus that leads to more chaos with the SEC having so many teams tied atop the conference. I want Tennessee, but I want the chaos more, give me the DAWGS to win at home with defense. Georgia 31, Tennessee 20.


Nebraska at USC

     The weird vibes game is set for an afternoon kickoff out in Southern California. The Huskers and Trojans are both coming out of a BYE week and are expected to look very different when they take the field. Starting with my Huskers, Nebraska now has former WVU and Houston Head Coach, Dana Holgersen, calling the plays as the new OC. A mid-season OC change is always odd, but especially with just 3 weeks to go and when he was assisting at TCU earlier this year. Dylan Raiola hasn't practiced much due to the injury he suffered against UCLA, so we could be in for some Haarburg time as Husker Fans. From what I've heard from folks at practice, the playbook will be simplified and is running all through Holgersen. Hopefully there's a bit more effort to establish the run game, but I'm guessing anything new will be a refreshing feeling for Husker fans. Unfortunately USC made changes of their own, and that comes at the QB position. Miller Moss has been benched after the Trojan offense was lacking the typical explosiveness we've been accustomed to seeing from them. Former UNLV Rebel, Jayden Maiava is now in command and his rushing ability outside of the pocket is what scares me the most. Lincoln Riley is wanting his offense to look more like the Caleb Williams days, so a dual-threat QB like Maiava could be the key he's looking for. Nebraska does not fare well against QBs who run, so the Blackshirts will have their hands full with very little film on their opponent. I woke up with a bad feeling about this game and I'm just not sure a 2 week Offensive Coordinator will be enough for the Huskers to flip the script. Jayden Maiava leads the Trojans and they win at home 31-24. I really hope Holgersen can prove me wrong!


Quick Hit Predictions:

Cincy at Iowa State - Cyclones are spiraling in the wrong direction but turnovers doomed the Bearcats last week. Both teams need a rebound win, but I'll take the home team. ISU wins 35-27.

Kansas at #6 BYU - The Jayhawks were spoilers to Iowa State last week, but now travel to Provo to attempt and play spoiler again. BYU has so many dangerously close games, but I've got the Cougars staying unbeaten. BYU wins 38-28.

#20 Clemson at Pitt - Pitt QB Eli Holstein is out and that's about all you need to know. Clemson back to dominating lower level teams and they win 38-14.

Michigan State at Illinois - The Spartans have a favorable schedule to make a bowl game as Illinois is the toughest team left on their schedule and the only road game. Both teams are sitting on their losses from two weeks ago coming out of the BYE, so motivation is high. I like Altmeyer to play better than Chiles, so give me Illinois at home 27-21.

Baylor at West Virginia - Both teams are 1 win away from bowl eligibility, but the offenses are inconsistent. I'll take the Mountaineers to play well at home, but I do think Baylor gets bowl eligible to let Dave Aranda keep his job. WVU 34, Baylor 27.

Virginia at #8 Notre Dame - The Irish are just a few wins away from a playoff birth. A sneaky Virginia team stands in their way this week as the Cavs have pulled a couple of upsets but almost always cover the spread. If you're betting have them cover, but I've got the Irish winning 40-28.


Thanks for reading my Week 12 Predictions and GO BIG RED!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Week 11 Predictions

      November football never disappoints (apart from the Huskers), and I welcome you to Week 11 of College Football, the THICK of November football. Big time playoff elimination games are set up in the SEC today, but don't sleep on some of the other games around the country. I've got a full slate of predictions ready for you, so let's dive in!


Week 10 Record: 11 - 8

Overall Record: 132 - 57


Week 11 Predictions:

#4 Miami at Georgia Tech

     Last year, Mario Cristobal opted to run the ball instead of taking a knee and it resulted in a fumble and then a last second TD and victory for the Yellow Jackets. Unfortunately for Georgia Tech, star QB Haynes King is a game-time decision, so they may need to find a way to win without him. On the other side, Cam Ward is anything but injured and continues to dominate every opposing defense. His Heisman campaign will be on full display today as he looks to add to his 32 total touchdowns. It's hard to pick against the 'Canes when they're rolling so well. If Haynes King can play, there could be another scare on the road, but Miami keeps winning no matter what. Hurricanes win in Atlanta 34-21.


Florida at #5 Texas

     The Florida Gators have announced they are keeping Billy Napier and believe that he is moving the team in the right direction. If freshman QB DJ Lagway hadn't gotten injured late in the Georgia game, it could've been a different outcome. Unfortunately he's likely out for today's game against Texas, but their defense could still cause some headaches for Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns. This team is headed in the right direction for next year, and the first half could be similar to Georgia last week where it's closer than you think it should be. Texas has a path to roll into the playoffs and SEC title game with, but I don't think they're as dominant as advertised. Hook 'Em 38-21.


#23 Clemson at Virginia Tech

     The Tigers were stunned at home by the upset-minded Cardinals of Louisville last week, and now travel to Lane Stadium to take on the Hokies. If this was a night game, I would lean a lot harder to the side of Virginia Tech, but they've been inconsistent in finishing games. They fell to Syracuse in overtime last week, but prior to that were on a 3-game win streak. Clemson needs to get their train back on track as they're unlikely to make the College Football Playoff without some help. I expect them to run the ball with big Phil Mafah as the Hokies rank 83rd in rush defense. Clemson wins 28-14 on the road.


Michigan at #8 Indiana

     The defending national champions are two-score underdogs on the road at Indiana. Yes, you read that correctly. The Hoosiers are dominating all of College Football and ranked 8th in the first CFP Rankings. Michigan comes into Bloomington at 5-4 still looking for bowl eligibility. Their offense is very one-dimensional with the run game, so expect the Hoosier defense to load the box and force a lot of third and long situations. Combine that with star DB Will Johnson out again for the Wolverines, and Kurtis Rourke will light up the scoreboard. Hoosiers continue to roll and set up a big date with the Buckeyes in a couple of weeks. Curt Cignetti wins some more with a 31-14 victory.


#3 Georgia at #16 Ole Miss

     The Rebels were demolished in the spotlight a season ago 52-17 by the Bulldogs, but now host them in the Grove with a new and improved defense. Georgia has struggled with turnovers this season, primarily on the shoulders of Carson Beck. I voiced my concerns with him in the pre-season and he has thrown 11 picks already this season. The Landsharks own a +7 turnover margin, good enough for 19th in the nation. They also lead the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, demolishing opposing front lines. Combined with Jaxon Dart and the high-scoring offense, I think the Rebels pull the upset. Georgia's defense has struggled against big plays with 47 plays given up of 20+ yards and 24 plays given up of 30+ yards this season. Ole Miss needs this game to prove they are in fact new and improved, so give me the Rebels at home. Ole Miss 30, Georgia 27.


#20 Colorado at Texas Tech

     The Buffs have quietly worked their way back into the playoff spotlight as they sit in a tie for the second spot in the Big XII Conference. They have a tricky road trip to Lubbock with the upset-minded Red Raiders. Texas Tech took down the Cyclones on the road in the rain last week, primarily on the back of star RB Tahj Brooks. He rumbled for 122 yards and 1 game-winning TD last week and apart from Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, he's the only back in the country to rush for 100+ in each game this season. The Buffs have struggled with the run game at times this season, but their offensive firepower almost always has a response. I think this could be a shootout, but Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are too much in the end. I don't love it, but Colorado has a path to the playoff and it continues with a win against the Red Raiders. I'd love to say Guns Up & Wreck 'Em, but the Buffs win 37-31 on the road.


Oklahoma at #24 Missouri

     An old Big XII game takes place in the SEC as Missouri and Oklahoma are set for battle at Faurot Field. The Sooners have some serious issues on offense, ranking 113th in Total Offense and 90th in Scoring Offense. They have been plagued by injuries as well, so putting up points won't be easy. Mizzou has fallen after a couple of rough games against A&M and Alabama. However, Brady Cook said he only has a few games left in a Tiger uniform, and I think he makes the most of them. Their offense is still explosive and I think they can outscore the abysmal offense of the Sooners. Tigers 33, Sooners 21.


Washington at #6 Penn State

     The Huskies were able to hold on for a big win at home over USC last week, but now travel to Happy Valley to take on the upset Nittany Lions. Penn State fell short despite multiple chances inside the 5 yard line against Ohio State, so I'm guessing they will be hungry to flex their muscles. Washington has a solid ground game with Jonah Coleman, rushing for 889 yards and 7 TDs so far this season. Traveling 3 time zones is never easy though, and I've got the Nittany Lions at home 31-14.


#9 BYU at Utah (Holy War - Battle for the Beehive Boot)

     Old rival meet again as members of the same conference since they were in the Mountain West back in 2010. The Utes have struggled this year, but rivalry games are where you need to throw the record out. Kyle Whittingham has 9 out of the last 10 in this series, but will likely be without Cam Rising again today. That leaves Issac Wilson to take on his older brother's former team at the helm. He's been okay, but their offense ranks just 105th in the nation for scoring with a little over 22 points per game. BYU has been electric this season, despite being picked as one of the bottom feeders in the Big XII. Junior QB Jake Retzlaff has taken over the spotlight, and leads the 24th best scoring offense to 35 points per game. He's thrown for more than 1,800 yards with 18 TDs to just 7 picks. He's also added more than 300 yards on the ground and 3 more TDs. Utah's defense is not the normal version of themselves, and I think Retzlaff will put on a show. Always a fun rivalry to watch, but give me the Cougars to win in Salt Lake City 34-24.


#11 Alabama at #15 LSU

     The game of the week takes place at night in Death Valley. One of the best venues in all of sports plays hosts to one of the best rivalries in college football. A playoff elimination game is set as the Tide Roll in to take on the Tigers. Alabama has shown vulnerabilities this season, and while the Tigers have a couple losses of their own, the air raid attack is deadly with Garrett Nussmeier. For Alabama, their defense needs to bring pressure early and often, but that will be difficult against LSU's veteran o-line. The Tigers have given up just 4 sacks all year, giving Nussmeier extra time. Offensively for the tide, Jalen Milroe needs to have one of the best games of his career tonight if they want to win. LSU's defense has been sitting on their loss to A&M for two weeks, studying the tendencies of mobiles Quarterbacks. They'll look to contain Milroe and force tough throws to keep the offense behind the sticks. Give me the Tigers at home at night! This will be a tough one, but GEAUX Tigers as they win 29-27.


Quick Hit Predictions:

West Virginia at Cincy - Could go either way, but WVU struggles when they get down early. Cincy jumps out quick and holds on for a 27-23 victory.

Syracuse at Boston College - Eagles have slipped, losing 3 straight, but are coming off a BYE and Syracuse is still a bit turnover prone. BC wins at home 28-17 with turnovers.

#25 Army at North Texas - With a big game against Notre Dame lurking in a couple of weeks, Army could be in danger with the Mean Green. However, they get star QB Bryson Daily back so give me the Black Knights 31-27.

Purdue at #2 Ohio State - This pick is for my friend Bill Kelly. The Boilermakers have pulled wild upsets before, but this is not the day. Ohio State 38, Purdue 10.

Virginia at #18 Pitt - The Panthers got WORKED by my dark horse Ponies down in Dallas, but now come home against Virginia. The Cavs pulled a few upsets earlier this year, but I'll take the Panthers in a 31-20 bounce back game.

#17 Iowa State at Kansas - Pre-season, this was marked as a game that would be defining the Big XII Conference race. However, KU has not done well this season and the Cyclones are coming off their upset loss at home to Texas Tech. Cyclones get right, but this could be a close game late. Cyclones win 30-20.

Minnesota at Rutgers - Gophers are rolling and Scarlet Knights are without star RB Kyle Monangai. Minnesota keeps winning 24-10.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt - The Gamecocks are coming off a big win at home upsetting Texas A&M, and most of the time Vandy is the perfect game to follow that in case of a hangover. Now, as Alabama found out, it's one of the worst. The Commodores play great defense and get the win at home 23-20.


Thanks for reading my Week 11 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Week 10 Predictions

      Happy Gameday! We've reached November Football and the Playoff race is wide open. This week only features two ranked vs. ranked matchups, but there's plenty of opportunity for chaos to strike. I'll cover all the big games to watch today but first I'll take a look back to the Huskers' loss in the Horseshoe to the Buckeyes last Saturday. I really did have some hope the Huskers would pull that one out, but unfortunately they fall victim yet again to a one-score loss. I've got a lot to cover, so let's dive in.


     The Huskers put the Buckeyes on upset alert for a while last week as they led 17-14 early in the 4th quarter. After being demolished by Indiana a week prior, most everyone on the planet (myself included) did not anticipate the Huskers being much of a factor outside of the first half at best. There's a lot of things to take away from this game, but I'll keep it broken down to my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below with my analysis.

GOOD - The Blackshirts and John Hohl. The Husker defense bounced back with a purpose last week, holding the Buckeyes to just 285 total yards with 11 first downs and 1/10 third down conversion rate. After being shredded in every way possible the week prior against Indiana, this was great to see from the Blackshirts unit. They completely stuffed the run game holding two of the best backs in the nation to a combined 64 yards. A couple of coverage busts ended up hurting them toward the end of the game, but holding one of the nation's best teams to just 21 points at home after giving up 56 the week before is a big confidence boost for the rest of the season. My other GOOD from last week was the kicking (yes, I said kicking) by John Hohl. Relatively unknown until the Ohio State game, Hohl connected on all 3 of his field goals including a long of 54 to close out the first half. The Husker kicking game has been abysmal for years, but maybe it's turning a corner with Hohl?


EXPECTED - Some good and bad with Raiola. Keep in mind, this kid has only played 8 games of D-1 college football. He's still learning a lot about diagnosing defenses mid-play to ensure correct reads and what best plays to check into at the line. I thought there were some very big growing moments with him, especially when diagnosing where to throw certain passes given the coverage, pressure and where the blitz came from. We also saw him break off a 38 yard run and scramble a couple of other times. Certainly not a number one strength, but if he can extend a few plays or drives with his legs, all the better for the Huskers. The interception on a potential game-winning drive is frustrating, and there's some clear communication issues with him and his receivers at various points of the game, but those will get ironed out with time.


BAD - Screen passes. I know Matt Rhule, Dylan Raiola and a number of others have addressed this issue saying it's not all on Satterfield, but I'm still going to beat the drum. Coaching in a very similar offense at the High School level, I know how valuable screen passes can be. They build confidence for your QB and receivers with easy completions and can get you quick yards to keep the chains in manageable situations. HOWEVER, if you cannot block the screens, they are disasters waiting to happen. We spent a very significant portion of our individual time with my wideouts at Standing Bear on how to properly block each screen play and repped it over and over. I'm sure that's the case with the Huskers, but perimeter blocking is still a glaring issue for this offense. Not only in the screen game but also in the run game. The wide receiver blocking needs to be addressed immediately and I'm happy to come in and provide my expertise because that was one of my favorite things to do as a wide out. Seeing as the Huskers likely won't inquire about my assistance, I'll simply watch and observe, but please limit the screen passes until the perimeter blocking is at least at a mediocre level.


Week 9 Record: 20 - 2

Overall Record: 121 - 49


Week 10 Predictions:

#4 Ohio State at #3 Penn State

     The biggest game of the day kicks off at high noon as the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions square off in Happy Valley. It's a bit sad this isn't a night game with the White Out scene in Happy Valley, but regardless, we've got a top 5 showdown between two teams that need a statement win. Ohio State has some question marks after my Huskers stifled their star-studded offense, but they always seem to find away against Penn State. James Franklin has always talked about needing his team to level up in order to beat the Buckeyes, so now's the time to see if the work has been done. Penn State needs to study the Nebraska film closely and shut down the run early. This will open up more blitz and pass rush opportunities against Will Howard. Howard was twice last week despite his ability to scramble. Offensively the Buckeyes will look to get out on the edge, either with their RBs or talented wideouts on screens. They block the perimeter much better than the Huskers, so those plays actually go for a gain and sometimes get broken for big yards. Penn State's best offensive weapon comes in the form of a 6'6 Senior Tight End, Tyler Warren. Warren will line up in about every position on offense, including the backfield, so Ohio State needs to know where he is on every play. Both Ryan Day and James Franklin need this win to change the narrative about themselves, but only one can make that happen today. Penn State has been solid all season, and will be again today. However, I think the Buckeyes take this one 27-21.


Duke at #5 Miami

     Despite 6 turnovers from SMU, the Blue Devils couldn't knock off the Ponies at home, falling 28-27 in Overtime after a failed 2-point conversion. Now Manny Diaz has a road trip to Miami to take on his former team. The ex-Hurricane Coach has Duke at 6-2 in his first season as the head man, and knocking off his former team currently ranked at #5 would be quite the storyline. For me, it's a QB battle to watch in this one as Maalik Murphy and Cam Ward lead the respective offenses, and both of their dual threat ability has been problematic for opposing teams. Ward is a Heiman finalist hopeful with nearly 2,800 yards passing to go with 24 TDs and just 5 picks. He's added another 3 TDs on the ground and his scrambling ability and avoidance of sacks in the pocket is uncanny. Maalik Murphy has racked up nearly 1,800 yards with 17 TDs and 5 picks. He'll need some help up front because Miami loves to rush the passer and has 26 sacks on the season. I'll take the Hurricanes as they've been rolling along through ACC conference play, but Duke could keep things interesting if they learn how to get some points out of turnovers. Miami wins 34-17 over the Blue Devils.


#19 Ole Miss at Arkansas

     Despite a couple of conference losses, Ole Miss still has an outside shot at a playoff bid if they can keep things from going off the rails any more. A road win at Arkansas is needed as they host Georgia next week. Arkansas is one win away from a bowl game and hung nearly 60 on Mississippi State last week. The Hogs are a very capable and deadly team, but struggle to find consistency in their performances week to week. The Rebels struggled far more than I thought they would offensively against Oklahoma last week, but got the job done behind another great Jaxon Dart performance. He'll be big in this game and lead Ole Miss to a 31-21 victory on the road.


Minnesota at #24 Illinois

     Vegas must know something here as the Gophers are favored on the road against the Illini. Minnesota's defense has quietly become one of the nation's best, ranking 9th overall in Total Defense and 12th in Scoring, allowing just 16.8 points per game on average. The Illini fell to Oregon on the road last week, but took down Michigan at home the week prior. Luke Altmeyer is still having a strong season, throwing for nearly 1,700 yards thus far with 15 TDs and just 3 picks. He'll need to get this offense in gear as they've failed to reach double digits in their two losses, scoring 7 against Penn State and 9 against Oregon. Both of those team are top 15 defenses like the Gophers. Turnover margin is key in tight games, and both of these teams have been two of the best in the conference. I haven't watched enough Gopher football to fully appreciate why they're the favorite in this game, but I know the Illini are looking to bounce back, so give me the home underdog for a 23-20 win.


#1 Oregon at Michigan

     The Wolverines look to slow down the high-powered Ducks as they come into the Big House for afternoon BIG 10 Clash. Big Blue is very one dimensional with their run heavy attack, but Senior Davis Warren has opened at least a few options in the passing attack. He'll have a very difficult pass rush to deal with when he drops back though, as Oregon averages 3 sacks per contest. Offensively, the Ducks still run on the back of Jordan James. The Junior is averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 8 TDs on the season. Despite fewer carries in the last couple weeks, he's still been productive and helps move the chains. That opens up the offense for Dillon Gabriel and everything else they want to do, so keep your eye on #20 when he doesn't have the ball, because I guarantee Michigan will flow his way on play-fakes. Ducks stay on top 31-17.


Florida vs #2 Georgia (World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party)

     The Gators are looking to play spoiler in the back half of the season as they have 4 out of 5 remaining games against ranked conference opponents and don't have much to fear with a young QB out there developing week after week. Georgia does not look as dominant compared to previous years, and Carson Beck (as predicted) continues to struggle finding his weapons. One of the easy weapons for the Georgia offense though is ex-Gator Trevor Etienne. He's rushed for 7 TDs in the last 4 games and is due to for a breakout day. Why not against his former team? Bulldogs win 34-20 behind Etienne.


Texas Tech at #11 Iowa State

     The Red Raiders love to play close games, and despite some early celebrations, they ended up falling last week to the rival Horned Frogs 35-34. Iowa State is coming off their BYE week after nearly losing to UCF at home, so I'm sure Matt Campbell is anxious to get them back on track. Rocco Becht is very dynamic to watch, and his defense should stuff Tahj Brooks and the Red Raider run game. Give me they Cyclones at home 33-17.


#13 Indiana at Michigan State (Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon)

     Sparty is starting to find some footing under first year HC Jonathan Smith, but now host Cignasty and the 13th ranked Hoosiers after falling to in-state rival Michigan last week in the Big House. Star QB Kurtis Rourke is back under center for Indiana, which means their offense is back to full strength. The Hoosiers love to score and won't stop until the clock hits 0:00, so if Michigan State is going to win this game, Aidan Chiles better make good on his promise from the beginning of the season and help us bet the overs. Chiles is certainly a talented athlete, but turnovers have plagued him this year with 9 picks and 3 fumbles on the year. Indiana will take full advantage of those and I expect them to win 35-14.


#10 Texas A&M at South Carolina

     The leaders of the SEC head to Columbia to take on the Gamecocks. Yes, the Texas A&M Aggies are in first place atop the SEC and have a very clear path to the Championship Game in Atlanta. South Carolina has proven to be an upset minded team this year, and are fresh off a BYE week. Raheim (Rocket) Sanders is a focal point of the offense, rushing for 4.4 yards per carry and 6 TDs this season. The Aggies defense ranks 18th against the rush and have held three of their last four opponents to 100 yards or less on the ground. Offensively, I would assume to see Marcel Reed at QB, but there could be a Connor Weigman sighting as well. Weigman was benched in favor of Reed against LSU last week and the Aggies turned a 10-point halftime deficit into a 38-23 victory. Reed provides an extra element to the run game with his legs, but South Carolina's defensive front is no joke. We've seen them create havoc in the backfield all season long with 57 Tackles for Loss and 28 Sacks. A&M needs to protect up front, but I think they get the job done and win 30-27.


Louisville at #11 Clemson

     The Tigers have yet to lose to Louisville, 9-0 all time against the Cardinals. Dabo has Clemson rolling since that opening loss to Georgia, and they're averaging 42 points per game as the 4th ranked scoring offense in the nation. Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals have three losses on the season by one score each to ranked teams in Notre Dame, SMU and Miami. They're due for a big upset, but Death Valley is not an easy place to find those. Certainly a fun one to watch tonight, but I think the Tigers' offense is too much for Louisville to keep pace with, similar to their loss against Miami. Tigers 38, Cardinals 28.


Wisconsin at Iowa (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)

     Night games don't happen often in Iowa City, but when there's a Cow Trophy on the line you know they shine just a bit brighter. Wisconsin comes into Iowa City for a classic BIG 10 West type showdown. The Hawkeyes have a running back who would be in some Heisman talks if not for Ashton Jeanty up in Boise making everyone look bad by comparison. Kaleb Johnson has 1,144 yards with 16 TDs to his name this season, averaging a staggering 7.8 yards per carry. He's really the only source of offense for Iowa as the QB position continues to be a blackhole. Defensively they're not as stonewalled as they used to be, but opponents are still scoring fewer than 20 points per game on the Hawkeyes. For the Badgers they struggled to run the ball against Penn State, mustering up just 81 yards. If the run is established early, they can hold off the Hawkeyes, but I still have some question marks about Wisconsin. This will be one of those BIG 10 games where the first team to 20 wins, and oddly enough I think Iowa can get to 20 now. I'll take the Hawkeyes at home 23-17.


#18 Pitt at #20 SMU

     The only other ranked vs ranked matchup of the week features unbeaten Pitt on the road against the Red Hot Ponies. SMU was my dark horse to storm the ACC and get into the championship mix, a win against Pitt almost guarantees that with Boston College, @Virginia and Cal remaining on the schedule. Pat Narduzzi's squad still has Clemson and Louisville ahead of them, but are one of the few unbeaten teams in the nation. Very few have paid attention to the Panthers, but after ranking 116th in total offense and scoring offense last season, they are currently ranked 25th and 6th respectively with an average of 443 yards per game and 40.9 points. This could turn into a shoot out in Dallas, but the weather may have other plans with some rain. SMU somehow pulled out a road victory with 6 turnovers last week, so if they can hold onto the ball winning will be much easier. Pitt hasn't played an offense as dynamic as SMU's, but they racked up 5 picks and 3 TDs defensively against Syracuse last Thursday. This should be a fun game to watch, but it's on the ACC Network, so not many will be able to see it. Give me the Ponies by a late game score to seal it 38-35.


Culver Stockton at Peru State

     My former roommate and radio co-host Nate Muhlbach will be joining me for this Broadcast as the Bobcats host the Wildcats for a Heart of America Conference battle in the Oak Bowl. Peru State is coming off a 50-7 victory on the road last week and average around 405 yards per game offensively. Culver Stockton is 1-7 on the season and defensively allow 49 points per game on average. Big opportunity for Peru to keep rolling and I've got the Bobcats winning 56-14. Be sure to tune in to the broadcast with the link below!


UCLA at Nebraska

     The Huskers could celebrate bowl eligibility with their fans at Memorial with a win today. UCLA has had a rough start to the BIG 10 lifestyle, sitting at 2-5 and 1-4 in conference. They're coming off a BYE following their win over Rutgers, but now travel to Lincoln for a dreary and rainy afternoon in Nebraska. The sunshine-loving Bruins won't do well with the weather, so the Huskers need to take advantage of that early. Raiola's passing game will get tested on it's own in the weather, so look for a run heavy script from the Husker offense. Defense should have another big day as UCLA's offense has a limited number of weapons and they are -7 in turnover margin. Show up, command the line of scrimmage and pressure the QB to force turnovers. Huskers win and are bowl eligible for the first time since my Junior year of college with a 28-14 victory.


Quick Hit Predictions:

Virginia Tech at Syracuse - The Hokies are primed for a big finish to their season and Kyle McCord fell apart with 5 INTs against Pitt last week. Virginia Tech 27, Syracuse 21.

Arizona State at Oklahoma State - Nothing seems to be going right for Mike Gundy and the Pokes this season, but they've got to get at least one conference win, right? Pokes at home by a field goal 31-28.

USC at Washington - The Trojans and the Huskies meet now as BIG 10 opponents and neither has enjoyed the cross country travel that comes with it. Happy to be playing on the West Coast for an away game, give me USC to win in Seattle. Trojans 33, Huskies 24.

Vanderbilt at Auburn - Tigers are favored by -7.5 to a team that just took Texas to the wire with surge in the second half. Give me the Commodores on the road to Anchor Down and get bowl eligible. Vandy wins 30-26.

Kentucky at #7 Tennessee - The Wildcats already upset Ole Miss this season and took Georgia to the wire as well. On the road at Rocky Top, but Tennessee has been shaky lately. Cats keep it close, but Vols prevail 23-14.


Thanks for reading my Week 10 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday. GO BIG RED!

Peru State Livestream: https://www.heartconferencenetwork.com/peru/


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando