Nebraska defeated North Dakota 34-7 to wrap up an unblemished non-conference slate. There wasn't much challenge apart from the first two quarters with Ohio throughout non-conference play, but the Huskers handled business as needed. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD analysis laid out for Nebraska's first 3 games.
GOOD - Downfield blocks, especially from wideouts. Nebraska's wide receiver room used to be all about dominating blocks downfield back in the day. I'm talking about Kenny Bell & Quincy Enunwa, but the new Husker receivers are earning their strips with blocking for the run game. Jamal Rule's 55 yard TD run was sprung out because of Jacory Barney Jr. sealing the UND defender inside and then Kwazi Gilmer sprinting down the field along side Rule to keep blocking for the full run. The Husker rushing attack will be challenged in the BIG 10, but if Nebraska's wideouts can keep their aggressive blocking downfield, lanes will open up. I love watching great blocking from the perimeter players, it's what I coach my wideouts to do as well. No block, no rock.
EXPECTED - Big numbers on offense & concern in the defense's front seven. One positive and one area of concern for this category following the non-conference games. Nebraska's offense looked almost unstoppable through the first 3 games, scoring 19 touchdowns and averaging 520 yards per game. Anthony Colandrea has impressed thus far and the Husker rushing attack has multiple weapons to lean on. Most importantly, they've stayed healthy as BIG 10 play approaches. The offense is primed for a big year, but the tests only get tougher. Keeping the ground game as a feature of the offense is crucial for the Huskers' success, and Colandrea's ability to move the pocket will come in use. On the other side of the ball, the Huskers need to start collapsing the opponent's pocket. Yes, there were 5 sacks against North Dakota, but I want to see them put up those numbers against Power 4 competition. Notre Dame managed 4 against the Spartans, we'll see what the Huskers can do. Big picture, the addition of LB Owen Chambliss back to the lineup is extremely helpful for the Blackshirts, but I'm still concerned with how the front seven has been pushed around at time. BIG 10 offensive lines will look to get the second level quickly in the ground game, I'll be looking for Nebraska to work on plugging holes better.
BAD - Penalties. Especially on punt returns, penalties brought back nearly every punt return by Jacory Barney Jr. so far this season. Nebraska has 20 penalties through 3 games and really needs to get them in check heading into conference play. You don't want to put yourself behind the chains or take away big plays due to being undisciplined.
Week 3 Results: 14 - 7
Overall Results: 50 - 27
Week 4 Predictions:
Northwestern at #5 Indiana
The Hoosiers have been lightly criticized for not being as "dominant" so far this season, despite back to back shutout wins. Their non-conference has been non-competitive, but Indiana is still a top notch football team in the nation. Northwestern showed some muscle last week by demolishing Colorado 41-7 in their final game at the lakeside venue. It's wild to think that just a few years ago this game would be for one of the bottom spots in the conference. Northwestern could still find themselves there, but I think Indiana will get right back on their war path toward another Playoff appearance. Look for the Hoosier pass rush to put pressure on Aidan Chiles and the Chip Kelley offense should slow down a bit now in BIG 10 play. Indiana stays on task with a 40-10 win.
Clemson at Cal
The Clemson Tigers take a cross country trip for a Friday night kick against the Calgorithm. This is a perfect upset spot for the Golden Bears, but can they finish the job? Looking back at the last few times Cal had a spotlight game with a bigger brand opponent, they've been unable to seal the game. Miami a couple of years ago is a great example, but they didn't have JKS. He's my difference-maker in this game, especially if he can take care of the ball. He had a few costly turnovers against UCLA in the opener, but has done well to keep it safe since. This will be one of the tougher defenses they play this season, so we'll get a true look at the Cal offense. Clemson will be under a microscope for the remainder of the season, so we'll see how Dabo handles a cross country road trip. From what I've seen, they're not a good team and there's a lot of momentum for Cal. Give me JKS with a big game in a primetime spotlight. Golden Bears defeat the Tigers 34-28.
#1 Texas at #14 Tennessee
The Longhorns and the Vols tangle on Rocky Top in a top 15 matchup. Three shades of Orange will be on display as President Trump is expected to attend the game, hopefully we won't have to endure more open mic time of politics on College Gameday. As for the game itself, the two questions are if Tennessee can actually hang with the big boys and if Arch can handle a road game. Starting with the legacy QB, he's not developed a great track record on the road, losing to Ohio State last year and surviving a couple of overtime scares despite his poor passing performances. He's been streaky this season as well, but has better weapons to help when Texas gets in a pinch. Defensively, Tennessee does like to get after the QB with 13 sacks so far this season. They haven't been tested much like Texas who hosted Ohio State a couple of weeks ago, but the home atmosphere could help with upset vibes. Vols RB Desean Bishop is the key to relieving pressure from freshman QB Faizon Brandon. Texas will look to make Brandon beat them with his arm and send pressure of their own. If Arch can make smart throws and keep his teammates well-fed, this game shouldn't be an issue for Texas. Hook 'Em on Rocky Top as Texas wins 31-17.
Illinois at #7 Ohio State (Battle for the Illibuck Trophy)
A wooden turtle is on the line when Illinois comes into the Horseshoe and attempts to upset the Buckeyes. Ohio State's vulnerabilities lie on defense as the youth of that unit showed late against Texas. Illinois QB Katin Houser and wideout Collin Dixon have developed a great connection so far this season, racking up 367 yards and 7 TDs. They could put a couple dents in the Buckeye secondary, but it won't mean much if they can't stop the QB-WR connection on the other side. Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith have 400 yards and 3 TDs between themselves and the Ohio State offense is complimented well by the run game of Bo Jackson. Could be a bit of a track meet, but Ohio State is bigger, faster and scores more points in the end. Ohio State takes home the wooden turtle, something the Illini haven't seen since 2007. Buckeyes 38, Illini 21.
Wake Forest at #16 Louisville
The Cards came away with a big win against SMU last after forcing multiple turnovers to seal the game in their favor. Wake comes in after hosting Miami and now have to deal with another top 15 offense in the nation. QB Lincoln Keinholz of Louisville will need to get his team refocused after the big game against SMU, but he's got this offense averaging over 515 yards and 46 points per game so far this season. They've faced two very high quality opponents in Ole Miss and SMU, falling just short in the first game due to a last second field goal. They keep things rolling over the Demon Deacons 37-24.
Hawaii at Wyoming (Battle for the Paniolo Trophy)
A Mountain West classic is brewing in Laramie as the Rainbow Warriors and the Cowboys meet for the 30th time in this series. The Paniolo Trophy is on the line as the near 5 decade rivalry writes a new chapter. Wyoming has really struggled this season, but dual-threat QB Tyler Hughes does bring some big play ability. Unfortunately he's thrown 5 picks so far this season, and despite the Rainbow Warrior's own rough start to the season, this game could spark a big run. Give me Micah Alejado to have a big day and light it up for the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii 38, Wyoming 21.
Oklahoma at #2 Georgia
The Sooners travel between the hedges as the Bulldogs of Athens await. Georgia has yet to be tested by a team like Oklahoma, but they've erased teams off the map so far this season. Oklahoma's defense is still one of the nations' best, but when the offense isn't scoring to help them out, games like this are difficult to win. Georgia may take a few possessions to break though, but once they do I don't think the Sooners can keep up. Oklahoma was one of my playoff teams, so if they lose here, they'll likely have to win out. I'm not sure John Mateer can get them there, but his first test to do it is against the Georgia defense. This could stay close early on due to Oklahoma's abilities on defense, but Georgia should pull away in the second half. Go Dawgs 30-14.
#4 Ole Miss at #21 Florida
A big let down opportunity as the Rebels have to put the big win against LSU behind and travel to the Swamp. One of the loudest venues in all of College Football, Gator Country has new life thanks to John Sumrall and a Florida offense averaging 54 points per game. Auburn actually put some players on the field against Florida (no offense FAU & Campbell), but Florida still hung 44. The Rebels have every excuse to fall flat in this game. Being ranked in the top 5 after their big win and knocking Lane Kiffin down a peg for revenge has got to be a great feeling, but Pete Golding has to get this team refocused quickly. Florida will look to ground and pound early behind Junior RB Jadan Baugh. The Rebel defense has to load the box and force QB Aaron Philo to throw. If they can make this a QB focused game, they should win. Trinidad Chambliss is too talented of a player to be held down for long, and Florida's defense is still leaky, giving up 39 to Auburn. The other thing folks forget about this game is that Pete Golding is very familiar with John Sumrall's tactics. Pete faced off against Sumrall twice last year when Tulane played Ole Miss, once as the defensive coordinator and then in the College Football Playoffs. I think he's a good coach, has a Heisman-caliber QB and will have the Rebels ready. Ole Miss avoids the upset 33-28.
#15 Utah at Iowa State
The Utes leave the comfort of home for the first time as they head to Ames to take on the Cyclones. A very favorable schedule lines up for them with a BYE, Kansas and at Colorado to start October, but you never want to overlook the team that has nothing to lose. Iowa State is in a complete rebuild with Jimmy Rodgers after Matt Campbell took a majority of their team over to State College. They hung around with Iowa in the Cy-Hawk game and always play well at home. QB Jaylen Raynor is experienced from his time at Arkansas State and has more than 10,000 total yards and nearly 75 total TDs to his name. The Utah defense will need to be wary of his legs, making sure he doesn't extend drives and play keep away with the ball and the clock. Offensively, let everything flow through Devon Dampier and things should be just fine for the Utes. Utah wins on the road 38-17.
#17 Iowa at #18 Michigan
Two of the BIG 10's best defenses collide as the offenses just hope to cross the 50. Your guaranteed Iowa football game under bet is alive in well in Ann Arbor this weekend. Iowa's offense has looked very interesting so far this season, mainly in the fact that the ball moves and points go on the board. Star wideout Tony Diaz has provided a big target in the receiving game, but the lack of competition has helped inflate the numbers. Michigan has not looked good offensively through three games this season, and only pulled away from UTEP in the second half. Bryce Underwood leads their rushing attack, but against Iowa's defense he could have a tougher time finding room. Iowa will test their new offense against a Michigan defense allowing just 220 yards per game. It would be great if they could both lose, but I'll say Michigan wins it at home 17-13.
Boise State at Western Michigan
Boise State's head coach Spencer Danielson says Western Michigan is an undefeated team. Most fans agree with him (including myself), but both teams technically come in at 2-1 as this G6 battle could give us a preview of who is in the playoffs later this season. College Gameday missed a big opportunity to promote this "Battle of the Broncos", but I'm more than happy to shed some light on this game. Boise State is the premier G6 contender year in and year out, but we've seen Western Michigan in a New Year's Six Bowl before. That was a decade ago under Gopher head coach PJ Fleck, but there's still greatness up in Kalamazoo. You'll see veteran QBs lead their respective offenses in this game with Maddux Madsen from Boise State and Broc Lowry of Western Michigan. Neither has turned the ball over yet this year and their respective head coaches have a lot of trust in their decision-making. The crowd will be rocking in Kalamazoo, but Boise is just a tough team to knock off. I do think Western is a great team to keep an eye on this season, but I think the Broncos from the blue turf take this one due to their two-headed rushing monster with RBs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines. Boise State 31, Western Michigan 28.
New Mexico at New Mexico State (Rio Grand Rivalry)
The Lobos and the Aggies meet for the 116th time in their history as their annual rivalry takes place in Las Cruces this year. The Aggies come in with their only win against FCS Mercyhurst, having fallen against both Florida State and Hawaii on the road. New Mexico couldn't quite find the endzone against Oklahoma's top 10 defense, but held the Sooners to just 14 points and forced 3 turnovers in Norman last week. Despite losing their starting QB for the season before the season, the Lobos offense has done well against lesser opponents. They win their third straight in this rivalry 34-14.
Wisconsin at #13 Penn State
Time to see who's got some juice in the BIG 10 and who will get squeezed this season. Wisconsin's defense gave headaches to Notre Dame in the opener before getting blown out, and their offense played well against the likes of Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan. Not much to shake a stick at as the Badgers try to put together a season worthy of helping Luke Fickell keep his job. Penn State is looking to continue their non-conference momentum as a dark horse in the BIG 10. QB Rocco Becht has been nearly flawless, throwing for 751 yards and 9 TDs. Wisconsin will certainly test him, but the talent on Penn State's side of the field should help them prevail. Nittany Lions beat Wisconsin 27-17.
South Carolina at #8 Alabama
The Gamecocks have been close to knocking off the Tide over the last few years, but can never complete the upset. Bama has had to navigate double digit deficits each of the last two weeks, but a big second half as helped the scores look a bit more lopsided than the game may have felt. QB Keelon Russell is a dynamic talent, but his youth can show from time to time, and without a supportive rushing attack Alabama keeps playing with fire the more they have to come back. Luckily their defense forces a lot of turnovers and has them at a +3 margin so far this year. South Carolina is a dreadful -2 in the turnover margin through just 3 games and LaNorris Sellers has been extremely mediocre. A win here would help Shane Beamer in so many ways, but unfortunately I think it may take one more week for Bama to get exposed. Roll Tide 34-24.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia
A very interesting game in the Big XII takes place in Morgantown as the Mountaineers host the Pokes. Oklahoma State has a lot of momentum after knocking off Oregon a couple of weeks ago, but don't look past West Virginia. Rich Rod has them rumbling over opponents with the 6th best rushing attack in the nation. Dual-threat QB Michael Hawkins Jr. has 799 total yards with 11 touchdowns to his name so far this season and will be a headache for every defensive coordinator this season. Drew Mestemaker is getting his offense in rhythm, throwing for 882 yards with 8 TDs through 3 games. He has thrown 4 picks, and on the road that will lead to some WVU points. I like West Virginia to keep running the ball well at home. Mountaineers beat the Pokes 36-31.
#23 Texas A&M at #10 LSU
The Aggies had no answers for Kenny Minchey and the Kentucky Wildcats last week, falling at home 31-21. Marcel Reed has thrown 2 picks in 4 of his last 5 games going back to last season against both Texas and Miami. His turnovers are likely to pile up with the lack of a run game from A&M, forcing Reed to throw more. LSU is ready to move past the drama of the Ole Miss game, and a night game in Death Valley is a good way to clear your head as a Tiger. Sam Leavitt has not looked comfortable in the pocket, rushing his progression. However, his ground game compliment is much better with Dilin Jones. Mike Elko should be able to scheme some things up defensively to slow down Lane Kiffin and the Tiger offense, but I'm not sure the A&M offense can bring it all together. Texas A&M won here last year, but LSU takes it back this year. Tigers 31, Aggies 21.
#19 Missouri at #24 Mississippi State
The Tigers travel to Starksville as the Cowbells welcome home a new star QB for the Bulldogs. Sophomore Kamario Taylor has quickly become a star in the sport with 832 yards and an 11 to 1 TD to INT ratio through the air. He's added another 178 and TD on the ground, bringing the Bulldogs offense to #2 in the nation currently with an average of 544 yards per game. Missouri has their own star QB in ex-Rebel Austin Simmons, and he's helped the Tigers navigate the start of the season without star RB Ahmad Hardy who is still recovering from a gunshot wound last spring. Mizzou and Mississippi State can both put up points, but who will get a stop? If the defenses can force an extra punt or two that could be the difference as the offenses could get into a shootout. I like both QBs a lot, but Kamario Taylor is truly dynamic and it's always fun to watch Missouri lose. Bulldogs beat the Tigers 38-35.
#20 Oregon at #12 USC
Some west coast action for a heavyweight BIG 10 fight is set as Oregon visits USC. The Trojans have a prime time opportunity to make a statement to the nation, but does Lincoln Riley really have the defense fixed with Gary Patterson? A cross country trip to Rutgers is giving us all doubts as USC won by just 7. Oregon flexed on FCS Portland State, so nothing new was learned from the Ducks other than one of their wide receivers breaking his foot in pre-game warmups. I had both of these teams as playoff picks to start the season, but Oregon will be in dire straits if they lose this one. USC has Ohio State and Indiana later this season, but this seems like the one to get out of the three with how Oregon has been playing. Dante Moore has looked very shaky to start this season, but Jayden Maiava hasn't missed a beat. Despite a young supporting cast around him, he leads the nation in passing with 1,173 yards, 12 TDs and just 1 pick. He's one of my Heisman picks and I like Maiava to win them this game. Fight On as USC beats Oregon 36-33.
Nebraska at Michigan State
The Huskers hit the road for their first true test of the season with Sparty awaiting in East Lansing. Michigan State has a familiar face on the sideline as former Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald leads the Spartans now. Game 4 of the Fitzgerald program versus Year 4 of the Matt Rhule program. All signs point in favor of Nebraska, but this is a coach who knows how to beat the Huskers and takes great pride in doing so. Sparty has also been battle tested a bit losing by 17 to Notre Dame last week. They hung around with the Irish for longer than I wanted them to, but ultimately couldn't get their offense moving in the second half. Nebraska's offense has been in high gear through non-conference play, but I'm still not sure who this team is. Before the season, I had this game marked as a loss. The Huskers always struggle on the road and as mentioned, Pat Fitzgerald is always a thorn in the side. I think the Husker offense has looked better than I expected, but the run game needs to be consistent for success in this game. Michigan State has an extremely experienced secondary, so Colandrea needs to be thoughtful and accurate with his throws and aware of pressure in the pocket if the wideouts can't get open. Keeping the chains short will be key from the run game, but avoiding penalties is more important. Michigan State has only 10 penalties all season, while Nebraska is double that with 20. Defensively, Nebraska's run defense will be put to the test right away with Spartan RB Cam Edwards running at them. The UConn transfer won a Heisman in my CFB25 Dynasty with the Huskies, but more importantly he's averaging over 5 yards per carry for his career and does well to make first defenders miss. Husker fans will not enjoy seeing him break into the open field. The Blackshirts need to stop the run if the Huskers want to win. I'm tempted to stick with my preseason prediction and have Nebraska prove it to me, but I want to have good vibes here, so give me my Cornhuskers to win on the road 23-20. GO BIG RED!
Quick Hit Predictions:
Colorado at Baylor - The Buffs were smacked by Northwestern and multiple players are no longer with the team according to Deion Sanders. Baylor is waiting for DJ Lagway to get back into the lineup, but the Bears should handle this game either way. Sic 'Em 31-13.
Virginia Tech at Boston College - The Hokies have looked solid to start the year under James Franklin and should handle Boston College fairly easily. Ethan Grunkemeyer has looked impressive, Hokies win 34-10.
Colorado State at UTSA - One of my big upsets of the week takes place in San Antonio as the Rams take on the Roadrunners. I think Jim Mora has CSU going in a very good direction, and as a -14 point underdog, this is a non-conference game UTSA could very easily stumble in. They had to build a second-half comeback against Texas State and I like what the Rams have done this season. CSU upset 31-24.
UCLA at Maryland - The Bruins leave Cali for the first time this season and have to travel across the entire country to Maryland as they battle the Terps. UCLA has rolled on offense this season, racking up over 286 yards per game on the ground, ranking 5th in the nation for rushing. Maryland has a dynamic QB and WR combo with Washington and Durr Jr., but not much outside of that. It's an early kick for UCLA, but I think Bob Chesney is the better coach and will have them ready. Bruins beat the Terps 35-28.
TCU at UCF - The Frogs pay a visit to Orlando where they'll be handing out free hot dogs all game long to the crowd. Likely the only win they'll have that day as I expect the Frogs to handle business. The UCF offense has ben anemic to start the season and TCU looks to have bounced back from their Ireland trip quickly. TCU 33, UCF 21.
Vanderbilt at Auburn - Vandy was gifted the win last week when NC State fumbled in the endzone on the final play of the game. Auburn likely won't be so kind, but QB Byrum Brown does need to stop throwing picks. Auburn's defense straightens up for a win at home 30-20.
Kansas State at Cincy - The Wildcats have a newfound rushing attack with QB Avery Johnson and new head coach Collin Klein. The former K-State QB now turned coach has Johnson as the leading rusher with 253 yards and 3 TDs to go along with 618 and 6 TDs through the air. Cincy QB JC French IV has yet to throw a pick but lackluster competition has allowed some big numbers. I like K-State on the road 31-14.
Tulsa at Arkansas - The Hogs are in desperate need of a victory here before the season goes into a complete tailspin. They've given up 40+ points in each of the last two games and now host a dangerous Tulsa team looking to put their name on the map. The Golden Hurricanes are +4 in turnovers so far this season, and if they pick up a couple more than this one could get ugly for Arkansas. Give me Tulsa on the upset 30-27.
Minnesota at Washington - The Gophers were embarrassed at home a couple of weeks ago with Mississippi State hanging 38 points and nearly 500 yards of offense on them. They travel to Seattle for a late night game against the Huskies who are trying to establish a run game to support Demond Williams. The star QB has thrown for 890 yards with 5 TDs and 1 pick, but also leads the team in rushing with just 150 yards through 3 games. They're always tough to beat at home, but without a run game in the BIG 10 it could get ugly later this season. Washington 26, Minnesota 14.
Thank you all for reading my Week 4 Predictions and enjoy your college football weekend! Don't forget to check out my latest episode of Inside Heart Football where I give a full breakdown of what's happening in the Heart of America Athletic Conference and NAIA Football. There's great football at every level, so be sure to tune into my shows Thursdays at 6 PM.
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
