Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Oddly Specific 2026 Season Preview

      Hello everyone! Thank you for joining me as we look ahead to a brand new college football season. It's the best time of the year as team camps wrap up and we are just a couple weeks away from College Football on our TVs. As always, I will be here throughout the season to help you stay up to date on all the news, stats and insights for the 138 teams of division 1 college football. Two new teams join the FBS ranks with North Dakota State and Sacramento State moving up, so we've got even more teams to keep tabs on this year. Of course, my Huskers will be a primary focus on this blog, but if you have questions or want insights on any team, please comment, reach out and let me know. We're going to kick off this season by looking back at my Oddly Specific 2025 Preview and lay out my predictions for 2026. Here are my scores for the 2025 predictions.


2025 Oddly Specific Prediction Results: 15/46

Sun Belt Conference: 2 out of 4

Conference USA: 1 out of 3

Mid America Conference: 2 out of 5

Mountain West Conference: 3.5 out of 6 (0.5 for Boise winning the MW Championship)

American Conference: 1 out of 7 (So close on my Navy predictions, but not quite enough)

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC): 0 out of 4 (Cal won 2 East Coast road games, kudos)

Big XII Conference: 1 out of 5 (0.5 for Texas Tech in the Playoffs and 0.5 for Colorado regression)

Southeastern Conference (SEC): 3 out of 6 

(0.5 for Bama in the SEC Title Game & 0.5 for Arch not being a Heisman Finalist)

BIG 10 Conference: 1.5 out of 6 (0.5 because the BIG 10 & ACC tied at 27.8 ppg as a conference)


     Clearly I need to work on these oddly specific predictions. Back-to-back seasons with only about 1/3 of the predictions correct. We'll see if we can find some success with my third season of oddly specific predictions. Enjoy!


Oddly Specific Sun Belt Predictions

1 & 2. Louisiana wins at least 8 games behind 2,500+ total yards and 25+ total TDs from Lunch Winfield.

Why not start off with a multi-level prediction for the first one? The Ragin' Cajuns reeled off 4 single-digit wins to end the season and get bowl eligible in 2025. They return star QB Lunch Winfield who is gearing up for a big jump in his Junior season after throwing for 1,555 yards with another 667 on the ground and 20 total TDs. I think he bumps those numbers up a bit, leads Louisiana to 8+ wins and has them in competition to win the West. They have both Arkansas State & Troy at home while avoiding ODU, JMU and Marshall from the East.

3. Only 2 RBs cross the 1,000 yard mark on the season in the Sun Belt.

Last year there were 4 RBs from the Sun Belt conference who racked up 1,000+ on the ground. Graduation and the transfer portal has decimated the leading rushers of the conference, and the highest returning running backs are RB Devin Roche of ODU (14th last year with 630 yards) and Jaquari Lewis of Appalachian State (15th last year with 618 yards). There are some experienced Oline units throughout the conference, but there are a lot of new RB faces. I think only 2 RBs will break 1,000 yards as many offenses will likely use a running back by committee approach.

4. ODU wins 9 games and the East Division.

The Monarchs finished last season at 10-3 with a bowl game win over USF. They were within 2 touchdowns of Indiana to start the season, beat Virginia Tech on the road, and blanked Troy (West Division winners) 33-0. There are pieces to replace, but this team has a lot of momentum and a proven RB to lean on with key pieces form a Dline that ranked 2nd in the league last year. This will be a fun team to watch in 2026.


Oddly Specific CUSA Predictions

1. Delaware is the top offense in the conference for yards and scoring in 2026.

This team has a tremendous opportunity to win the conference title if they can put together some stops on defense. This offense was 2nd in points and 1st in yards for CUSA last year, averaging 29 points and 411 yards per game. I think they'll take top spot in both categories this year, returning 7 starters on offense including their QB, RB, WR, TE and 3 Offensive Linemen.

2. 4/10 teams go bowling this year.

The conference lost some members and some talent, so expecting more than half the conference in the post-season isn't easy. An argument can be made for 5 teams, but that depends on how quickly Kennesaw State can reload, and Missouri State can rebuild after losing their coach.

3. Florida International upsets Jax State, Liberty or Delaware at home.

Oddly enough, each of these teams host FIU the week after a road trip to Kennesaw State. Not entirely sure how the schedules lined up that way, but it's a unique coincidence. The Owls are reloading, but still very talented coming off a CUSA crown in 2025. They can certainly wear a team out enough for FIU to pounce the next week. The Panthers are loaded on offense with a deep backfield, an experience QB out of the portal and three of their top four receivers back. They ranked 3rd in scoring and 5th in yards for CUSA last year, so watch them pull an upset, maybe two!


Oddly Specific MAC Predictions

1. Falcons go Bowling.

Bowling Green is headed into year 2 with Eddie George at the helm, and I believe they're primed for a big jump in 2026. After finishing 4-8 last season with 3 games decided by one score, the Falcons have a good looking pathway to 6 wins. Hopefully they don't upset my Huskers in non-conference play, but both Iowa State and USF are rebuilding with new coaches and rosters. They have 4 favorable home games in conference play, so they'll need to pull an upset on the road against one of the top teams. The offense should have firepower with Oregon Transfer QB Austin Novosad and RB Austyn Dendy is back from injury after racking up 493 yards and 5 TDs in just 5 games last season. I say Bowling Green gets to the post season!

2. Sac State wins 2 conference games in their inaugural FBS season.

The Hornets of Sacramento State have jumped up to FBS and find themselves in the Mid-American Conference... on the West coast. With a new coach, this team has high hopes, but a lot of hill to climb if they want to make a name for themselves. They draw three different Ohio-based teams to the West and host the Minutemen of UMass as well. I think they can pull 2 conference wins in their first season.

3. MAC teams win at least 6 games against other G6 teams in non-conference play.

There are 16 games against G6 opponents for MAC teams in the non-conference. While they may not stack up too well against their BIG 10 opponents (please let Nebraska beat Ohio and BG), I think this conference can have a strong showing against G6 competition. There are quite a few teams in second years with their coaches, starting to turn things around. There's a few challenging teams like Boise State, NDSU and New Mexico in the mix, but I think the MAC will take a step forward this year and represent themselves well outside the conference.


Oddly Specific Mountain West Predictions

1. Top 4, Bottom 6. Hawaii, New Mexico, UNLV and NDSU carry the conference banner.

The new-look Mountain West are extremely top heavy. Only three of the returning members from last season made a bowl game, and while NDSU has pedigree, the move to FBS won't be the easiest. The Bison have road games against each of the other top teams mentioned, and I think these are the only four teams from the Mountain West to make a bowl game.

2. Hawaii plays for the Mountain West Championship.

The Rainbow Warriors have been on an upward trend the past few seasons under Timmy Chang, and have been a focal point of my Oddly Specific Mountain West Predictions each year. They're coming off a 9-4 season with an offense that averaged 31.6 points per game last year. They return QB Micah Alejado who threw for over 3,100 yards with 24 TDs and just 9 picks. He brings back a favorite target in Polefe Ashlock and has Washington transfer Audric Harris to help stretch the field. The defense will need to gel quickly with only a few returning starters, but the Rainbow Warriors host New Mexico, UNLV and NDSU out in the Pacific. Great opportunity for Hawaii to play for a Mountain West Championship.

3. Bison go bowling and win one against Hawaii, UNLV or New Mexico.

The North Dakota State Bison are officially division 1, and they come in ready to rock. This is a storied program with 10 National Championships since 2011 and just 20 losses since 2014. It's not likely they'll come in and stomp on everyone, but they certainly have potential to turn heads. I think they will be bowling in their first season, and despite being on the road against the three toughest conference opponents, they'll steal one. A special salute to my former Dean & supervisor who are now up in Fargo, GO BISON!

4 & 5. The Lobos offense is top 2 in the conference & are in Playoff talks after beating UNLV on Nov. 14.

Jason Eck did a phenomenal job to turn things around in New Mexico during his first season. Finishing 9-4 and barely missing out on the conference title game because of weird tie-breakers despite having head-to-head wins over both UNLV & SDSU. The Lobos bring back 14 players including 8 on the offense. They averaged 27.1 points per game and 356 yards per game, ranking 6th & 7th respectively in the Mountain West. With the conference shuffled up, they now sit as one of the top teams and apart from a trip to Norman, Oklahoma in the non-conference, they should be favored in most every game. Don't sleep on the Lobos!


Oddly Specific American Conference Predictions

1. Tulsa goes bowling for the first time since 2021.

The Golden Hurricanes have not performed well in the last few seasons, but last year's 4-8 record showed hints of promise. As Tre Lamb heads into year two. The Portal House and other culture building aspects of the program have been a big hit on social media, but can they turn the corner and reach the post season for the first time in 5 years? They return 6 starters on defense that improved by 14 points per game allowed from 2024 to 2025 last season, and rising star QB Baylor Hayes returns to lead an offense with new weapons from the transfer portal. While their toughest conference opponents (USF, UTSA & Navy) are all road games, they have good opportunities at home and could be primed for an upset. Let's see Tulsa make it to a bowl game!

2. The American is still the top scoring G6 conference.

Despite losing the offensive juggernauts of North Texas & USF, with both of those coaches and pieces of their respective offenses moving up to P4 schools, I think the American has enough firepower to stay atop the G6 scoring list. Last year they averaged 29.3 points per game as a conference. The next highest was the Sun Belt at 26.9. Conference realignment gives the Mountain West and new PAC-12 an opportunity, but don't sleep on the offenses throughout the American. I think they have the best scoring rate among G6 schools at the end of the year.

3. Blake Harrell moves up to the P4 from East Carolina.

If you haven't watched the Pirates in the last couple of years, I strongly suggest tuning into a couple of their games. Blake Harrell (HC) has a 14-5 record since taking over part-way through the 2024 season and nearly had this team in the American Conference Championship last year. Star QB Katin Houser is now with the Fighting Illini, but some portal running backs should help the ground game stay strong. Harrell is replacing both coordinators, but if he can put together another strong season, I think he'll get some serious looks from P4 schools as I predict a number of openings in the ACC.

4. Defense wins Championships.

The past few years, Tulane has played for 4 straight conference titles, and only won 2 of them. They ranked 2nd in scoring defense from 2022-2024, and then dropped to 5th last season. They also ranked 7th in total defense last season but were still able to come away with the crown. Despite the high-powered offenses I predicted above, I think the conference crown has to be won with a top 3 conference defense this year.


Oddly Specific PAC-12 Predictions

1. SDSU slips up before Boise.

The Aztecs might go unbeaten through their non-conference play, and their schedule lines up well for a potential heavy weight showdown with the Broncos on the smurf turf late in the season. Conference title hopes may still well be on the line, but I think the Aztecs could find a tripping hazard before seeing the Broncos in late November. A road game to Colorado State looks especially dangerous to me, but I think someone in the conference will pull an upset on them before they play Boise State. Who will it be?

2 & 3. Texas State extends bowl streak to 4 years with a top 15 offense (again).

The Bobcats have a dynamic offense with 7 returning starters including QB Brad Jackson and two 1,000+ yard wideouts. The defense will have to shore up a bit, but this team could cause some havoc in the new-look PAC-12, maybe pushing for title contention. Regardless, this is a team that will be in the post-season yet again, extending to 4 years and keeping the momentum building. They ranked 5th in total offense and 12th in scoring last season. Maintaining those ranks while moving to a new conference won't be easy, but I think they get it done.

4. Maddux Madsen has a big year.

The Broncos' Senior signal caller regressed a bit last season, but with returning RBs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines back to support, I think his numbers could boost again this season. He's got a veteran offenseive line, and while the receiver room is being restocked, Madsen should have plenty of options. After throwing for over 3,000 with 23 TDs in 2024, he was limited to just 2,334 and 18 TDs this past season. I think he'll get back over 2,700 with 20+ passing TDs.

5. Oregon State wins a road game.

This prediction may be a bit from the heart, but I think the Beavers can pick up a road win under first year head coach JaMarcus Shephard. I got to visit the Beavers' stadium this summer and there is certainly some good energy in that building with the coaching change. Oregon State has not won on the road since September 7th, 2024 when they defeated San Diego State 21-0. They were winless away from Corvallis last season, but opportunities are available to get things rolling in the right direction for 2026. Houston, UTEP, Colorado State, Fresno State and Boise State are all on the road docket. No cake walks (other than maybe UTEP), and especially tough conference opponents in their respective stadiums, but I like the Beavers to steal one.


Oddly Specific Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) Predictions

1. Miami STILL doesn't win the ACC Title.

All signs point to the Hurricanes finally winning the conference, something that has never been done despite being members for over 20 years. The 'Canes are loaded with talent, played for the National Championship last season and should be a favorite contender yet again. However, this is a sneaky dangerous conference. Road trips to Wake Forest and Clemson early in the year are certainly tripping hazards, and hosting the James Franklin-led Hokies late in November won't be a game to overlook. I think Miami could again be a playoff team, but they could easily stumble at the wrong time and I don't think they win the ACC, they might not even play in the game!

2. The ACC has 2 Heisman finalist.

I'm going to hedge this prediction slightly and include Notre Dame players since they play an ACC heavy schedule. It's also my blog and I can do what I please. Regardless, I think this conference has a lot of talent that people aren't talking about. The obvious picks are Miami QB Darian Mensah, SMU QB Kevin Jennings (one of my favorites) and ND QB CJ Carr. However, don't forget to watch NC State's CJ Bailey or Cal's Jaren-Keawa Sagapolutele. Both should have breakout seasons and will give this conference QB depth it hasn't seen in a while. I'd keep an eye on RB Isaac Brown from Louisville too!

3. Cal wins 2/3 games in the Eastern time zone.

The Golden Bears won 2/3 games in the Eastern time zone last season, despite my doubts. A new man is in charge as Tosh Lupoi comes in, bringing back the most important piece in star QB Jaren-Keawe Sagapolutele. The Golden Bears travel to Syracuse early in the year, NC State and Virginia. All very solid teams, but that's part of why I thought Cal would fall short last year. An overtime upset against Louisville beat my prediction last year, but a double OT loss at Virginia Tech did show the flaws. I think Cal could be a dangerous team in this conference, but they need to keep winning on the road.

4. 12 ACC teams go Bowling.

It's a big conference, so there's certainly room for error. Last year, the ACC sent 11 teams to the post-season. Adding 1 more team to that list may not seem like a big jump, but of the teams that made it last year, Cal has a new coach, Virginia is reloading with only 8 total returning starts and the only 3 on offense are on the line, and Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Duke all have new QBs. Virginia Tech should level up with James Franklin, and I think both Syracuse & FSU should bounce back a bit. Give me 12 out of 17 teams to go bowling.

5. ACC goes .500 or better against other P4 teams in the non-conference.

This prediction excludes Notre Dame, and the ACC has 18 games against other P4 teams in the non-conference slate. This conference is often overlooked, but has performed well against other P4 opponents. The ACC had 7 wins against P4 opponents in the 2025 post-season. There are some difficult games and easy games in non-conference play among these 18, but I think the ACC will find a way to win a majority of these games.


Oddly Specific Big XII Predictions

1, 2 & 3. BYU makes the playoff. Bear Bachmeier & LJ Martin put up big numbers.

I really thought it would happen last year, but the Cougars just missed out due to their subpar performances against Texas Tech. Even though they miss the Red Raiders in the regular season this year, I think the schedule could be a bit tougher than 2025. Road games at TCU and Utah provide tripping hazards while the Cougars still have to contend with hosting Notre Dame in the middle of the year. That will be a pivotal game, because I think the Cougars could be a 1-loss or even unbeaten team when the year is done. Sophomore QB Bear Bachmeier threw for over 3,000 yards with 15 TDs and added another 11 TDs on the ground with 500+ yards. It's hard to say I'm expecting more from him after that, but I think he racks up more yards and TDs than he did last season. His partner in crime will be LJ Martin, arguablly one of the best backs in the nation. Martin averaged over 5 yards per carry with over 1,300 yards and 12 TDs. Adding another 200+ receiving yards, his total is over 1,500. I think he pushes all of these totals up and has 15+ TDs to go with it. Look out for the Cougars this years.

4. Texas Tech stumbles in November.

The Red Raiders are heavy favorites yet again in this conference, but there are some gaps in this team. Most notably is the QB situation with Will Hammond coming off an ACL tear to be QB1 after the Brenden Sorsby debacle this summer. A productive ground game will help support Hammond, but there is danger lurking in the schedule. I fully expect Texas Tech to dominate a majority of their opponents, but the November slate could bring some adversity. Starting with a sneaky West Virginia team at home, Rich Rod isn't one to shy away from a big game. Then Joey McGuire's squad has to navigate back-to-back road games against improved Oklahoma State & Baylor teams. Finally, the Horned Frogs come to Lubbock for a rivalry showdown to end the year. I think one of those games causes a "Wreck 'Em" for the Red Raiders.

5. Baylor, K-State and WVU go Bowling while Cincy, Colorado and UCF do not.

Some of it is a bit personal with this pick, but I honestly don't think the coaching and rosters are very strong for the Bearcats, Buffaloes and Knights. Cincy has a solid O-line but has to reload on weapons. UCF is breaking in JMU transfer Alonzo Barnett III while trying to patch a defense which had a 0.7 scoring margin last season. Colorado has a number of new faces, including coordinators. I think this could be a long season for each of these teams, potentially leading into some coaching changes. On the other side, I don't know where my blind faith in Dave Aranda comes from, but hearing him speak earlier this year at the AFCA Coaching Convention, I was thoroughly impressed. I do want things to work out for him at Baylor and the Bears could start the season hot with DJ Lagway at QB. Their final 3 games are at BYU, home against Texas Tech and at Houston though, so it won't be an eay finish. K-State brings home one of their own with Colin Klein now the head man. A manageable schedule with 6 returning starters on offense should get them to the post-season. Last but not least, the Mountaineers nearly went bowling in year 1 under Rich Rod. He's got an abudnance of new roster pieces and could pull some upsets this year.

6. 2 Big 12 Teams are top 10 in Scoring & Total Offense again.

Last year Utah and Texas Tech carried the banner for the conference, lighting up opposing defenses and the scoreboard. I think the conference has enough firepower to keep those offensive numbesr at impressive levels. Keeping two teams in the top 10 and maybe pushing a third in the top 15 for scoring and total yards per game.


Oddly Specific SEC Predictions

1 & 2. The SEC doesn't win the Natty again. I don't think they'll play for it either.

Recent history suggests this is not that bold of a prediction, but with how off-season media days went, you'd think Hell has frozen over because of the lack of championships in the south. The SEC has extremely talented teams. I'm not now and never have disagreed with that. The conference is extremely deep and should produce 3 or 4 playoff teams this year. They finally play 9 conference games, which has been a complaining point in the offseason. I think this will enhance their season, despite some teams being left out. It will help us see who truly carries the big stick in this conference. They don't have the cupcake game in November as protection any more. With all of these factors, and recent playoff performances, I think the Natty stays out of reach, and the game itself may still be without an SEC team.

3. Tennessee at best, has a 7-5 record, but might not even make a bowl game.

This could be one of the boldest takes I have this season, but I don't think the Vols make the post season. This team did not beat a single opponent with a winning record in 2025, yet somehow is ranked to start the year. They do not have an established QB and unfortunately have lost multiple defensive stars to injury. I love the run game with DeSean Bishop and one of the nation's best offensive lines. They also hired ex-Penn State DC Jim Knowles to shape up a defense that gave up 33.6 points per game in conference play last year. I think Josh Heupel is a good coach and they've done all the right things, but something doesn't sit right with me for this year. They do get Texas, Auburn, Bama and LSU all in Knoxville, but I'm not sure they're going 4-0 in that run. Plus road trips to Georgia Tech, South Carolina and College Station set up major stumble spots. We'll see if they prove me wrong, but I think this Tennessee team is not as good as advertised.

4. Alabama has 3 losses and misses the playoffs.

While I believe Kalen Deboer is a great coach, I have hesitation with his Bama teams thus far. I do not think they should have made the playoffs last year, especially after their performance in the SEC Championship. They had an impressive win in the rematch against Oklahoma, but while watching that game I felt OU let it slip a bit more than Bama went and took it. Regardless, this season the Tide have some tricky opponents and are breaking in a new QB yet again. Keelon Russell has tremendous upsdie, but the talent depth around him isn't the same. Most notably with the lack of run game to support the freshman QB, the schedule does not offer too many games where they can rely solely on Russell's arm. Alabama ranked 125th in rush offense last year. Bama does get to host Georgia and A&M, but they travel to Knoxville, Baton Rouge and Nashville. I think they could be on the outside looking in come playoff time.

5. Oklahoma makes the SEC Championship.

Texas and Georgia are heavy favorites, but don't sleep on the Sooners. The defense brings back 6 starters and 8 starters on offense, including all 5 offensive linemen and star QB John Mateer. A tremendous amount of experience will help Brent Venables make another CFP run. The Red River Rivalry game is key for this prediction, but I think Oklahoma could turn some heads in the SEC this year.

6. Texas A&M has the opportunity to knock Texas out of the playoffs.

I'm hedging just a bit, rather than saying A&M knocks Texas out of the playoffs, because those Aggies always find a way to mess it up. I think Texas will come into College Station in November with 2 or 3 losses. A&M should be around the same and the winner could be playoff bound, but that 3rd or 4th loss would be devastating. I don't know if A&M is quite playoff material this season, but they are a dangerous team and their game against Texas will determine if the Longhorns make it in or not. We'll see if they make the most of it unlike the last two years.


Oddly Specific BIG 10 Predictions

1. The BIG 10 sends 4 teams to the playoffs.

I had this prediction last year and just fell short. With 9 conference games in the SEC, the door opens a bit wider for another BIG 10 team to get in. We'll worry about the SEC bias when the rankings come out, but for now, I think the BIG 10 shows more depth than is originally thought. Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State & USC are my picks.

2. USC wins 2 out of the big 3.

The Trojans have all 3 of the other BIG 10 heavyweights on their schedule, but get both the Ducks and Buckeyes at home. I do struggle to trust Lincoln Riley, but Jayden Maiava is primed for a phenomenal season and some key offseason additions (Gary Patterson & Mike Eckler) on the coaching side will help the defense tighten up. This is a show up or get out type of year for Riley, and I think the Trojans respond by beating two out of the three with Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State.

3. Wisconsin is looking for a new coach before the season ends.

Again a prediction I bring back from last year. My prediction is that Luke Fickell will be done before November, which is not all that bold. However, the Badgers may be the first P4 team in the nation to start their search, much like Penn State last year. Jason Eck from New Mexico is an obvious choice as a Badger alum, but we'll see how they feel mid-season. I'm not sure Luke Fickell has the squad to keep him the job.

4. BIG 10 has 5 top 20 QBs in passing yards.

The conference had 3 players in this category last season, but QBs #16 (Josh Hoover) & #17 (Anthony Colandrea) now play on BIG 10 rosters. Combine that with UCLA's new head coach Bob Chesney inheriting Nico Iamaleava, there's a lot of great arm talent around the conference. Rocco Becht from Iowa State also joins Matt Campbell at Penn State, so this could be the conference of QBs this season, perhaps better as a whole than the SEC QBs.

5. Top 5 BIG 10 QBs have higher efficiency than the top 5 QBs of other P4 Conferences.

Building on my last prediction, I think the QB efficiency ratings continue to highlight the talent in this conference. Here are the national rankings with each conference player from last year (ND included in ACC). I think the BIG 10 takes the crown again.

SEC: #4 Diego Pavia (87.7), #5 Trinidad Chambliss (86.0), #6 Gunner Stockton (85.8), #7 Taylen Green (83.1), & #15 Marcel Reed (77.9)

ACC: #8 CJ Carr (82.7), #11 Carson Beck (80.6), #13 CJ Bailey (78.1), #14 Darian Mensah (78.0), & #17 Haynes King (77.7)

Big XII: #9 Devon Dampier (82.0), #10 Brendan Sorsby (81.4), #20 Bear Bachmeier (76.7), #26 Kaidon Salter (73.2), & #27 Josh Hoover (73.2)

BIG 10: #1 Jayden Maiava (91.2), #2 Julian Sayin (89.6), #3 Fernando Mendoza (88.4), #12 Luke Altmeyer (79.4) & #18 Dante Moore (77.4)

SEC Top 5 QBR Average: 84.1

ACC Top 5 QBR Average: 79.4

Big XII Top 5 QBR Average: 77.3

BIG 10 Top 5 QBR Average: 85.2

6. Indiana repeats as BIG 10 Champs.

While this may not be the boldest of takes, the repeat path for the Hoosiers is not easy. I don't fully understand why they're being overlooked coming into this season as the defending national champs, I think they've reloaded the team quite well. Josh Hoover was top 20 in passing and top 30 QBR. Now he has a better offensive line, receivers and defense to lean on. Plus Cignetti does not seam like someone who is going to slow down. The schedule has challenge, look out for a late November road game to Seattle along with a trip to Ann Arbor while also hosting both the Buckeyes and the Trojans. However, this team is very well built and I think the Hoosiers are here to stay.


College Football Playoff Predictions

1. Indiana    2. Notre Dame    3. Georgia    4. Oregon

5. BYU    6. Oklahoma    7. Ohio State   8. SMU

9. Miami    10. USC    11. Texas A&M    12. New Mexico


Thank you for reading my 2026 Oddly Specific Predictions and get excited because we've got football this week! Enjoy some photos from Oregon State, Wyoming and Colorado State as I stopped at all of those stadiums on our road trip this summer. Definitely will be watching these three teams closely this year. Looking forward to keeping you updated throughout the season and look for my Oddly Specific Husker Predictions and Week 0 Predictions later this week. Thank goodness football is back!










#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Monday, January 19, 2026

College Football Playoff - National Championship

      Hello Football friends and welcome to the National Championship! We've reached the end of our 2025-2026 season journey and it's brought us to Miami, Florida where the hometown Hurricanes take on the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers. It still seems impossible to say Indiana has a shot at going 16-0 in football with a National Championship victory, but here we are. The Hoosiers and Hurricanes have shown nothing but toughness throughout the entirety of both the playoffs and the season as a whole. This post will give my prediction of the game along with some transfer portal thoughts, highlights from my first ever AFCA Coaches Convention and some thoughts on potential playoff expansion being discussed. As always, there's so much going on in college football, so let's dive right into it.


     Starting with my recent trip to Charlotte, NC, I attended my first American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) Convention. This was a great experience to connect and learn from coaches all around the United States and even some from international programs. As I continue to look for opportunities to expand my career into college football, this was a great first step in building those all-too-important connections. I was also able to attend multiple sessions where coaches at various levels talked through some X's and O's. There were some very unique systems and fantastic drills I plan on using in my coaching career. A special shoutout to Coach Zacharias from Richmond as his presentation on how DBs can decipher WR stems off the snap was so much fun, especially for myself who played both positions back in the day. Appreciate all the coaches that presented and took the time to connect with me.

     Throughout the convention, one message was very clear from the coaches, the transfer portal and NIL dealings are a mess right now. This convention was actually a bit thin in some of the higher level coaches attending because of the transfer portal over lapping. I also had the chance to meet with some fellow journalists who cover college football for the Athletic. A great group of writers that everyone should go look up if they have the chance, starting with David Ubben, co-host of my favorite College Football Podcast: Bunch Formation. While talking with the sports writers, we were approached by an FCS head coach who gave us quite the story about a typical interaction in the portal. I'll leave the specifics out of the blog as it wasn't a formal interview, but the story he gave explained how an athlete he was recruiting for his program was offered a walk-on position with $100,000 NIL deal at a Power 4 FBS school. The head coach talked with the athlete between visits as he was supposed to visit the FCS school next, explaining that his school would be giving him a scholarship, room and board along with a smaller NIL package. Highlighting how that $100k would be split up for various expenses including school, housing, food, insurance and taxes, he encouraged the athlete to still visit his program before making a final decision. The athlete ultimately decided to cancel his flight (and effectively his visit) to the FCS school, but because he was in between visits the Power 4 school was no longer allowed to pay for him to fly back to their campus or to home. The FCS school was expected to pick up the next air fare tab for the athlete's official visit, but because the athlete canceled, they had no obligation. So the athlete effectively stranded himself in whatever airport hub he was at while between visits and the compliance office of the P4 school was calling the FCS school trying to get them to pay the bill to fly that kid home. I wonder if they used some of his NIL deal to buy his tickets.

     In addition to the large dollar signs being thrown around, many coaches explained to myself and others how most of these athletes are getting bad advice from family members or makeshift agents who were looking for a quick pay day. Another FCS coach who spoke on a panel explained that any player with the opportunity to play college football at the D3, D2, NAIA or D1 levels of any kind are in roughly the top 8% of all football players, if you make it to D1, you're in the top 4%. So athletes looking to jump around from one division to another for a big pay day, are not appreciating what their current opportunities are. We saw a good example of that in this cycles as well over 1,000 players at each level were left stuck in the portal. Some likely pushed toward the promise of a bigger payday by an agent. Another head coach from the D2 ranks explained that while his school has become very portal heavy in their recruitment, he refuses to discuss NIL packages with athletes until later in the recruitment processes - "If your first conversation with me involves asking how much money we have for you or telling me to talk to your agent, we're done. I can't call your agent when you drop a pass." Also on that panel was Baylor head coach, Dave Aranda. He explained how finding the right type of player is just as important as spending the money in the right areas. It can be difficult to have more of your money on the sideline because guys aren't developed enough, and you have to find the difference between a kid who wants to play and who wants to win. "Guys who want to play [football] are focused on money, gear and attention. Guys who want to win are focused on development and football." Truly a great experience at AFCA and I loved all the new perspectives shared around so many unique parts of this sport.


     Shifting my thoughts to the current playoff expansion discussions going on, I have very little to say other than LEAVE IT BE! The reports of a 16-team or 24-team playoff are extremely frustrating when you have seen the success of the 12-team playoff in just the two years of existence. I think an adjustment needs to be made with the committee and a BCS type computer system should be brought in for extra metrics, but the 12-team playoff has been phenomenal. Over the past two seasons, you've had 20 different teams in the playoffs overall, 13 different teams in the quarterfinals, 8 different teams in the semifinals and 4 different teams playing for the National Title. The 12-team playoff has enhanced the regular season and it gives a pathway for all 136 teams in Division 1 FBS football. We finally have a system that can squeeze out whatever parity is available in this sport, despite some of the biases pushing certain teams and conferences forward. I get the money game and how all the conferences and big wigs want to make more money, but sacrificing more passion and integrity of this sport for a few more games is ridiculous. The SEC does not have 7 teams capable of winning a national title, same for the BIG 10. As a Husker fan and football analyst, I study the BIG 10 a lot. The three best teams (Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon) got into the field, USC, Michigan and others were not good enough. The regular season games have to matter. There has to be a consequence for losing an October or November game instead of saying "no big deal, we'll still be in the top 24 teams for the bracket". Expanding the playoffs does nothing in terms of getting higher quality games, it's simply for larger amounts of money. I'm the last person who would want to see fewer football games, but at the cost of minimizing the importance of what these game mean in unacceptable. I believe the playoffs should stay at 12, this system has proven to be a good one with providing a pathway for every team, while ensuring every game you play has both rewards and consequences.


College Football Playoff National Championship

#10 Miami Hurricanes vs #1 Indiana Hoosiers

     After three straight wins on the road and outside their home state, the Hurricanes get to play for the National Title at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. Rugged play on the line of scrimmage and smart decisions by veteran QB Carson Beck have led the 'Canes back to the promised land under alumni Head Coach Mario Cristobal. Miami's revived run game is led by Junior RB, Mark Fletcher Jr., who's racked up nearly 400 yards on the ground in the playoffs alone. Beck has been patient in the pocket and does well to take what the defense gives him with underneath throws. His legs proved to be a difference-maker against Ole Miss, scrambling for first downs and the winning touchdown at key points in the game. They'll look to get the ball in to the hands of star wideout Malachi Toney early and often. Toney is one catch away from his 100th of the season and already has over 1,000 yards to go with his 9 touchdowns.  Defensively, the Hurricanes love to create havoc in the backfield as Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor combining for 19 total sacks on the season, helping Miami rank 1st in the nation with 47 sacks overall. They have been able to get pressure on everyone this season, but can they do it against Indiana? The Hoosiers have steamrolled every team in their way, boasting a national best +473 scoring margin. Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza executes this offense flawlessly behind a star-studded offensive line, and always seems to make the right decision with the ball. Miami's secondary is likely to struggle against Indiana's wide array of pass catchers, especially with multiple injuries and a first half targeting suspension in that sector of the field for the Hurricanes. Mendoza and his wideouts have been so good this season many people overlook the true power of this Indiana offense, running the ball wherever and whenever they want. The Hoosiers rank 12th in the nation with nearly 220 rush yards per game and average 5.3 yards per carry. The 1-2 punch of Roman Hemby and Kealon Black is hard to understate when there's more than 2,000 yards of turf behind their cleats this season, but the violence and vision these backs run with will certainly put Miami's 6th ranked run defense to the test. Indiana's defense is one of the nation's best as well, especially when forcing teams off the field on third down. Just over 30% of those conversions have been made this year and Miami could be in for a rude awakening if they get behind the chains. I do believe this could be an entertaining game for a while, but Indiana has looked completely dominant all season long, especially in the playoffs. Miami has the talent, they've shown their toughness in these Playoffs, but I don't think Carson Beck will be able to handle this defense. I don't think Mario Cristobal will out coach Curt Cignetti, and I don't think the U of Miami is tough enough to hang with the Indiana Football Hoosiers. As weird as it is to say, Indiana is your 2025-2026 National Champion as they defeat the Hurricanes 34-17. What an amazing college football season this has been. Thank you all for sticking with me throughout it and I'll have more thoughts to come after the game. Enjoy the Natty!



My first AFCA Coaching Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Thursday, January 8, 2026

College Football Playoff Semi-Finals

      We're nearing the end of our College Football season as there are just 3 games left until we crown a new champion! Miami, Ole Miss, Oregon and Indiana are the 4 teams that remain, meaning we will be witnessing some history with Miami being the only team to win a national title (most recently in 2001) and Ole Miss claiming 1960 for a national title with a 10-0-1 record. Both BIG 10 representatives have never won a national title although Oregon has been close on a few occasions. We'll break down each game and what to expect from our semi-final matchups. These should be two great games, so let's dive in!


Bowl Game/Postseason Record: 26 - 14


College Football Playoff Semi-Finals:

#10 Miami vs #6 Ole Miss - VRBO Fiesta Bowl

     The Hurricanes and the Rebels meet in the desert for our first semi-final matchup. These are two teams with conflicting styles as Ole Miss is ready for a shoot out any day of the week, but Miami plans to suffocate their opponents on the line of scrimmage. The Hurricanes did just that in their win against Ohio State, racking up 5 sacks on Julian Sayin for -42, 7 tackles for loss and dominating time of possession by nearly 7 minutes. The Buckeyes gave a strong push late in the second half, but ultimately the power of Miami's front from both sides of the ball won them this game. Carson Beck has been playing very well the last month and a half, throwing just 1 picks since the loss to SMU. He hasn't had to make many big throws, thanks to the emergence of their ground game under a healthy Mark Fletcher Jr. who is averaging 7.3 yards per carry throughout the playoffs. The Rebels' defense played very well against Georgia, allowing just 124 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs haven't been great at running throughout the season, but the dual-threat abilities from Gunner Stockton did give Ole Miss some headaches on 3rd down. They'll need to contain Carson Beck and try to keep Miami in 3rd and long situations so he can't nickel and dime them up the field with short passes. Ole Miss does have the ability to get pressure though, recording 2 sacks and 9 tackles for loss against Georgia. I was very impressed at how the Landsharks pursued the ball carrier, stretching Georgia's run game horizontal more often than not. That aggressive pursuit on the ball gives me hope they can compete on the lines with Miami. If they handle their business up front, Trinidad Chambliss could have yet another big game. In their two losses, Miami struggled to contain Miller Moss and Kevin Jennings in the pocket. Both of those players, along with Chambliss, are fantastic at extending plays and creating some magic during the scramble drill. The Ole Miss receivers are very much on the same page with Chambliss, even when he goes off script. This will put a lot of pressure on the Hurricanes' secondary. Be sure to watch how often they give up a chunk play because of Chambliss evading pressure. If Ole Miss starts fast, this is their best chance to win. Put Miami in a hole and make Carson Beck the feature player, not Mark Fletcher Jr. You cannot let the Hurricanes dictate the tempo and script of the game. We all know Ole Miss is playing with a lot of pride, their situation with Lane Kiffen might be the most motivating among all teams left in the field. However, the dominance on the line of scrimmage shown by Miami in the first two rounds has been eye-opening. If Ole Miss can't get the jump, I expect the Hurricanes to slowly suffocate them and Chambliss will be under a lot of heat from Reuben Baine Jr. and Ahkeem Mesidor. Look for them to be in the backfield a lot and I'll go with Miami 30-24.


#1 Indiana vs #5 Oregon - Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

     A BIG 10 rematch is set for semi-final number two as the Indiana Football Hoosiers take on the Mighty Ducks of Oregon. The first round went to Indiana as they got one of their statement wins on the season, defeating Oregon at Autzen Stadium 30-20. It's the only blemish on another great season from the Ducks, but can they finish the job this time? Oregon did their best to make a statement last week in the quarter-finals, shutting out Texas Tech 23-0. While the defense was on display, the Red Raiders did limit Oregon to just 64 yards rushing and 309 total yards. I wouldn't expect the Hoosiers' defense fall far from that as Alabama didn't even reach 200 total yards. In the last meeting Indiana racked up 6 sacks and 8 tackles for loss, keeping Dante Moore under constant pressure. The Hoosiers are great about keeping opponents behind the chains, allowing just 28% conversion rate. The Ducks rank 27th in the nation with 45% conversion rate for third downs, but they aren't afraid to go for it on fourth if necessary, converting 18/30 for 60%. I trust both of these coaches to build fantastic game plans, especially for a semi-final game. However, Dan Lanning's squads always seem to miss the right play at the right time in these big games. Oregon has had a few games where they looked a little flat this season, and Indiana seems ready to smash anyone in their path. This will be a phenomenal battle in the trenches, and don't forget Oregon can rush the passer well too with 29 sacks on the season. However, this Indiana team seems like they're destined to dance in some confetti, so I'm calling the Indiana Football Hoosiers to win this game 27-17. Watch how the Indiana Oline moves people around late in the game. They get stronger as the game goes on and that's hard to match.


Thank you for reading my semi-final playoff predictions and enjoy the games!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando