Welcome to October football fans as we kickoff Week 6 with conference play in full swing. This post will highlight all the games to know about this weekend along with my predictions and thoughts on what teams need to do to win. We'll dive right in so you can enjoy your College Football Saturday!
Week 5 Results: 17 - 2
Overall Results: 80 - 31
Week 6 Predictions:
#14 Iowa State at Cincinnati
One of the first games of the day gives us a very intriguing Big XII matchup between Iowa State and Cincinnati. The Bearcats have been on a tear since falling to Nebraska in the opener, and it's all from QB Brenden Sorsby. Other than his interception to Malcom Hartzog Jr., he's accounted for nearly 1,300 total yards and 14 TDs this season. Iowa State will have their hands full defensively, especially with his dual threat ability. Luckily for the Cyclones, Sorsby doesn't have the most notable supporting cast. Iowa State is in a similar boat offensively though, as most of their offense runs through QB Rocco Becht. The Junior has 12 total TDs to his name with 2 picks on the year. The keys to watch in this game are who will step up to help their QB with a big play, and which defense is going to contain the scramble and QB runs the best. Cincy did a great job of that last week against Kansas with Jalon Daniels, and Iowa State showed that ability in the season opener against Avery Johnson and K-State back in Dublin. This will be a very fun game to watch, but I've got Iowa State in a close one. Cyclones beat the Bearcats 30-27.
Wisconsin at #20 Michigan
Life in Mad-town has gotten a little hot for Luke Fickell, especially under his office chair. The third-year Badger coach heads into the Big House without his starting center and QB while donning a 2-2 record coming off the BYE week. Last time out we saw Wisconsin get stomped by Maryland at home and this team really doesn't have much identity. Michigan beat my Huskers in Memorial before going on their BYE week and now have Head Coach Sherrone Moore back on the sidelines after his two game suspension. The Wolverines have a fantastic rushing attack led by Junior RB Justice Haynes. Having watched him in person against my Huskers, he is a very difficult back to slow down. When given space, he's got break away speed, already racking up a couple of 75 yard TD runs. QB Bryce Underwood still has a lot of growing to do, especially in the passing game, but he's fit into this offense well early in his career. If Wisconsin takes my game plan that the Huskers ignored (sell out to stop the run and make Underwood beat you with the passing game), then they have a shot. But Michigan's rushing attack is nearly impossible to shut down right now. Wolverines beat the Badgers 33-14.
#22 Illinois at Purdue (Battle for the Purdue Cannon)
The Fighting Illini bounced back quickly after their throttling from Indiana a couple of weeks ago, but fending off the Trojans and knocking off USC 34-32 at home. Now they travel to BIG 10 rival Purdue, and luckily they have history on their side. There is only 1 team in FBS that has lost every single game following the release of a Taylor Swift album, the Purdue Boilermakers. They have shown great improvement under new HC Barry Odom, but a Swifty Curse is not something to mess with. Statistically, Purdue actually ranks ahead of Illinois by a few spots in both total offense and defense, but my key factor for the game is QB Luke Altmyer. The Senior has 11 passing TDs with 0 interceptions through 5 games and does a great job ensuring he's making the right throws. If he keeps playing this way and takes care of the football, then Illinois should be victorious in this one. Fighting Illini 31, Boilermakers 24.
Kansas State at Baylor
A Big XII battle that should look like old times, lot of points and little defense. K-State and Baylor are now the old heads of the conference, and with a 1-1 conference record early on, this is a big game to get back in the right direction. Kansas State is starting to find their footing after a brutal looking 1-3 start to the season. Their dynamic rushing attack has stumbled to 94th in the nation and defensively they rank 73rd in the nation, but 36th in defending the pass. Not a typical defense from the Wildcats, and they'll have their hands full with Sawyer Robertson slinging it on the other side. The Baylor gunslinger leads the nation in passing with 1,713 yards and 17 TDs with just 3 picks. He's been shredding opposing defenses all season and the two losses are close ones to Auburn and Arizona State. I still have the Bears in the mix for the Big XII title, but this is a must-win game to get back in the right direction. Sic 'Em for a 33-28 win.
#9 Texas at Florida
Arch Manning travels to the Swamp and everyone is waiting to see how he handles another tough road environment after a sluggish start to the season. The Longhorns have not done much offensively behind Arch (as I predicted) to start 2025, but Florida is one of the few teams that has done less on offense. DJ Lagway and the Gators rank 116th in total offense and 102nd in scoring offense. Pressure is building for Billy Napier, and while his defense has kept them in games, his play-calling and lack of development of the offense have severely hurt Florida's ability to compete. I do think Arch Manning will be challenged again and this defense has made a number of "top tier" QBs look mediocre for a day. This will be a defensive battle all the way through as the Longhorns rank 4th in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense. Neither QB will look great, but Texas wins 23-14.
#16 Vanderbilt at #10 Alabama
One of the biggest games of the day sets up a revenge opportunity as the Crimson Tide host the Commodores. Vanderbilt pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the history of College Football last season by beating Bama, and Vandy's star QB Diego Pavia says that's old hat, but they're going to do it again. Pavia is an absolutely sensational player and has done nothing short of miracles in Nashville, bringing Vanderbilt to a competitive level never before seen in this conference. But this year Alabama knows they're coming. They know what types of things to expect from the Commodores, and they're looking for revenge. Alabama doesn't often make the same mistake twice, and their win at Georgia last week was in control from wire to wire. QB Ty Simpson has been very impressive, throwing for 1,138 and 11 TDs on the season with 0 interceptions. If he can keep ahold of the rock, Bama's offense has been difficult to slow down. I never want to pick against Diego Pavia, because he does nothing but prove people wrong. However, Bama sees them coming and knows that if they lose to Vandy in back-to-back seasons, there will be some serious hell to break loose in T-Town. I'll be rooting for the Commodores, but my head says to pick Alabama at home. Roll Tide (cautiously) as they win a rugged one 34-28.
Boise State at #21 Notre Dame
The Broncos have gotten back on track since getting throttled in the season opener at USF, but now have to travel to South Bend, IN to take on the Irish. Notre Dame is rolling the last couple weeks after two close losses to Miami and Texas A&M to start the season. They've dropped 112 points over the last two weeks on Purdue and Arkansas while racking up 464 rushing yards in those two games. Boise State 83rd in rush defense so far this year, so it could be a long afternoon for the Broncos. The Irish don't have much defense of their own though, and Boise State QB Maddux Madsen already has 1,129 yards with 9 TDs to just 1 pick on the season. Not sure Boise can pull the upset, but they can certainly put up points in this one. Notre Dame 40, Boise State 27.
#24 Virginia at Louisville
The Cavaliers pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season last week by beating Florida State in double overtime and executing one of the best field storms in sports history. They have been playing very well all season and could easily be 5-0 if not for their close loss to NC State. They now go on the road to a dangerous Cardinals team who is unbeaten, but loves to live on the edge, having been down 17-0 at Pitt last week before winning 34-27. Both teams are led by fantastic QBs with a lot of experience. Chandler Morris and Miller Moss both fill up the stat sheet through the air, and this one should be a shootout. I've been on the Virginia train all year, but this feels like a spot for a let down. Road game against a good opponent after a big upset win? Certainly a tricky spot, but they if they win, the schedule is very easy moving forward. I'll stay on the Cavalier train and say they make a statement on the road. I haven't seen enough consistency from Louisville and the Cavaliers win 36-33.
Washington at Maryland
An interesting battle in the BIG 10 has the Huskies traveling cross country to College Park, Maryland and taking on the Terps. Both teams feature dynamic, dual-threat QBs with Sophomore Demond Williams Jr. (Washington) and Freshman Malik Washington (Maryland). Starting with Williams, he was safe and efficient against Ohio State, but couldn't break through the defense for a big play. Malik Washington has been all about the big plays, throwing for a new career long each week. The Terps had a week to rest following their beat down on the Badgers in Madison, so they're fresh while playing at home. Washington has to travel across 3 timezones, but it's always easier traveling East than it is to travel West. I liked what I saw from the Dubs against Ohio State, despite not putting up many points. I'm not sure how good Maryland is yet, so I'll take the Huskies on the road. This is an interesting one to watch with Nebraska traveling to Maryland next Saturday, so hopefully Washington can rough them up a bit with a 27-21 win.
#11 Texas Tech at Houston
The Red Raiders made a statement win against Utah on the road a couple of weeks ago by winning 34-10 in Salt Lake City. QB Behren Morten took a hit late in that game, but has been working on his slide over the BYE week and is back in the line up for today. Houston is unbeaten at 4-0, but has not looked great this season and needed a late comeback, a blocked kick and an overtime win to beat Oregon State on the road. The Cougars do rank 11th in pass defense though, so Texas Tech will be tested offensively. I expect them to execute well as they did in Utah, but the true statement will be made by their defense. The Red Raiders have 10 sacks in their 4 games with a +4 turnover margin. Wreck 'Em for a 35-14 win.
Minnesota at #1 Ohio State
The Golden Gophers are led by Freshman QB Drake Lindsey as they stroll into the Horseshoe at 3-1. They rallied for a comeback at home against Rutgers last week, but now have to deal with the top ranked scoring defense in the nation. Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin has looked very comfortable leading the offense, throwing for 10 TDs with 3 picks on the season. It's helpful to lean on WR Jeremiah Smith, who has nearly 400 yards with 4 TDs on the season. I'm not convinced Minnesota will be ready defensively to slow down Ohio State all game, and even if they get a few stops, I don't know if they'll be able to score against the brick wall that is the Ohio State defensive front. Buckeyes win at home 38-14.
#3 Miami at #18 Florida State
The 'Noles blew their College Gameday opportunity by losing to Virginia in double overtime last week, but have a big statement game with #3 Miami coming to Tallahassee. The Hurricanes are well rested off the BYE and have been dominating in the trenches this season. Carson Beck is not my favorite of QBs around the nation, but he looks very comfortable in this system and has some fantastic weapons around him. Most importantly, the run game has been rolling with Fletcher and Brown combining for 594 yards and 9 TDs so far this season. Defensively, the Hurricanes have been suffocating, giving up just 11.5 points per game and 244.5 yards per game on average. Florida State's offense is led by transfer QB Tommy Castellanos, who has them ranked 1st in the nation with 600 yards of offense per game. Defensively they need to load the box and shut down the run, giving them pressure opportunities against Carson Beck. That will be tough against an offensive line allowing just 5 sacks all season. It will be fun to see both teams with a big test tonight, but I trust Miami a bit more than I do with FSU right now, so give me the 'Canes in a thrilling 31-27 victory.
Mississippi State at #6 Texas A&M
The Bulldogs nearly pulled the upset against Tennessee at home last week, and will likely ruin someone's season in the SEC. However, can they do it on the road against the Aggies? Texas A&M is very quietly stepping into the thick of their schedule with games against LSU and Missouri lurking on the road later this month. Marcel Reed has looked good in his second year as the starter, posting a 9:2 TD to INT ratio, while also adding a TD on the ground. The Aggies have struggled on converting 3rd downs this season, ranking 126th with a conversion rate of 30.61%. The Bulldogs rank 32nd in the nation, so this will be an interesting matchup to watch if Mississippi State can keep Texas A&M behind the chains. Blake Shapen has been sharp this season, throwing for over 1,000 yards with 8 TDs and 3 picks for the Bulldogs. If he can find some openings in a tough Aggie defense, this could be a game with upset watch potential. I like watching this Bulldog team a lot, but I think their season spoiling wins come a bit later in the year. Texas A&M holds them off at home to win 30-21.
Duke at Cal
The Blue Devils go coast to coast with the Golden Bears waiting for a late night kick. Cal pulled off a tough road win at Boston College, but were shutout just a couple weeks ago on the road at San Diego State. Freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been very impressive in the early part of this season, throwing for 1,242 yards with 8 TDs and 4 picks. He'll be squaring off against a very dynamic QB on the side of Duke in Darian Mensah. The Sophomore Tulane transfer was one of the big offseason NIL deals made by Duke and he's proven why with 1,573 yards with 13 TDs and 2 interceptions. Both of these teams have two sides to them, so I'm curious to see which of them show out. One of my new rules in College Football will be tested here as it is very difficult to travel west, especially for a late night kick. I don't like teams having to play on midnight body clocks, so give me the Golden Bears for the win at home 31-28.
Michigan State at Nebraska
The Huskers have sat on their loss to Michigan for two weeks with the BYE and now host the Spartans for a Homecoming BIG 10 battle. Sparty has a very dynamic offense, led by QB Aiden Chiles. He's really stepped up his game in year two with the green jersey, throwing for 868 yards with 9 TDs and just 1 pick. He's also added a couple of TDs on the ground and Nebraska always struggles with dual-threat QBs. Defensively, the Blackshirts need to tackle well as Sparty backs don't go down easy. Luckily for the Huskers, Michigan State's pass defense ranks 118th in the nation, so Dylan Raiola and his crew of wideouts have a big opportunity in front of them. There are 30+ mph wind gusts expected though, so look for a lot of underneath throws and getting guys in space. I would love to see Jacory Barney Jr. get open with some screens and set Lindenmeyer, Hunter and Key out front to block in space. There are certainly opportunities for points, but Nebraska needs to take care of the football. Emmett Johnson should set the pace running the ball, but in 3rd and medium or more distances, the oline needs to protect Raiola as Michigan State likes to bring unique blitzes. I like the Huskers to bounce back at home in this one, and I'll take Nebraska 34-27. GO BIG RED!
Quick Hit Predictions:
Kentucky at #12 Georgia - The Bulldogs at home in a bounce back game following the Bama loss, especially with Kentucky struggling at the QB position. UK RB Seth McGowan is one to watch with 7 TDs on the season, but Georgia wins this 28-10.
Boston College at Pitt - The Panthers are starting a new QB today as they host Boston College. Both of these teams have multiple close losses on the season already, so expect a close game. A new QB can always spark an offense, but Pitt really can't run the ball. Give me BC on the road for a 38-36 win.
Clemson at North Carolina - Two championship coaches due battle in the ACC as Dabo Swinney and Bill Belichick square off with Clemson and North Carolina. What was originally thought to be a primetime game quickly turned into a lack-luster matchup as both teams have struggled in the early part of the season. I think Clemson will just out-talent UNC, but this won't be a pretty game to watch. Tigers 28, Tar Heels 10.
Syracuse at SMU - The 'Cuse were demolished by Duke in their first game without QB Steve Angeli, and now travel to Dallas to take on an SMU squad that has been sitting with their TCU loss for two weeks. I love both of these coaches with Fran Brown and Rhett Lashlee, but I'll take the Ponies at home 34-17. Without a QB, there's not enough firepower with the Orange.
Colorado at TCU - The game that started Deion's Colorado coaching career was a win at TCU following their national title appearance. The Buffs now return to Fort Worth with a number of issues, especially on defense where they're allowing more than 80% of opponent redzone trips to result in points. The Horned Frogs average 37.3 points per game and should have a similar total today. TCU wins 38-21.
Kansas at UCF - Both the Knights and the Jayhawks suffered their first Big XII loss of the season last week, so a bounce back game is set in Orlando today. Watching Scott Frost lose will forever bring me joy after what he did at Nebraska as a Coach, so give me Jalon Daniels to put up video game numbers as we Rock Chalk with the Jayhawks winning 40-31.
Thanks for reading my Week 6 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando