Welcome to Week 9 College Football fans, and we have a few playoff elimination games on the docket for this weekend. This is a loaded post as I have all my thoughts from the football disaster in Minnesota that the Huskers made me sit through, as well as predictions for a loaded weekend. Let's jump right in!
Despite my early season predictions, I drank the Kool-Aid and picked Nebraska to win the $5 Bits of Broken Chair trophy for the first time since 2018. The Huskers repaid my faith by giving what I believe to be the worst game performance and loss of the Matt Rhule era. Better yet, I was in attendance for the 24-6 disaster against the Golden Gophers on Friday night, frustrated like many of my fellow Nebraska fans. While young, this Nebraska roster is extremely talented, so a 6 point performance against a mid-range BIG 10 opponent is near unacceptable for fans. There's a lot to break down with this game, so I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD analysis followed by some thoughts on the wild week of College Football.
GOOD - Special Teams. We've certainly reached a new era of Nebraska Football where I've got the Husker Special Teams play in my GOOD category of analysis, but its well deserved. Starting with the only points Nebraska was able to muster in this one, Kyle Cunanan has become a very reliable weapon for the Huskers. While the field goals in Minnesota weren't particularly challenging, he still made both when called upon and is now 11/12 for the year with a long of 52 and is so far perfect on extra points. I've really appreciated his consistency and hope he continues to play well. Shifting over to the punt teams, Archie Wilson did well to flip the field against the Gophers, especially in the early 3rd quarter when his punt was downed at the 1 yard line, giving Nebraska's defense a golden opportunity, only to be ruined by a 14 play, 99 yard touchdown drive that took nearly 9 minutes off the clock. Regardless, Wilson did his part throughout the game with 5 punts for 223 yards, averaging 44.6 with a long of 53 and his coverage team allowed just 1 return for 2 yards. The cherry on top of my special teams praise goes to Jacory Barney Jr. and his punt returning abilities. He's extremely shifty when returning punts, and is very close to breaking one as he has been all season long. Very similar style to De'Mornay Pierson-El and I can't wait until we get him loose for a really big return. He had a long of 30 against Minnesota and on the season and that was his 3rd on the season of at least 30 yards. Bringing in Mike Eckler was a sensational move.
EXPECTED - Nebraska struggling on the road, especially in Minneapolis. We've seen this before, but the Huskers still have issues on the road. Under Matt Rhule Nebraska has a record of 3-12 when playing on the road (excluding the Kansas City game against Cincy because that was practically a home game with the Husker crowd). They will need to win at UCLA or at Penn State this year just to break .500 in true road games, but I have concerns about both of those games. I give Rhule credit with preparations for Maryland and how the team went out a day early to have extra time to rest and walk-through different things. However, we knew Minnesota would be difficult, especially on a short week. I don't know what it is about Huntington Bank Stadium, but the Huskers always seem to lose their common sense of football when playing against the Gophers there. Nebraska last won there in 2015, but since then the Huskers have averaged 13.4 points and 114.6 rush yards per game on the road in Minneapolis over the past 5 games, all losses. Minnesota also has 6 straight wins in the series and recorded a school record of 9 sacks against the Huskers on Friday night.
BAD - Pretty much everything, but especially the offense. As mentioned above, the Huskers allowed 9 sacks on the evening, which was 16.7% of their entire offensive plays. This is an absolutely ridiculous statistic, and is highlighted even more when you consider that Emmett Johnson mustered up 100 total yards on 19 touches (14 carries, 5 catches). Those 100 total yards were nearly half of the Huskers' 213 total yards in the game, and Johnson didn't see most of his touches until the second half when Nebraska was down. I was extremely frustrated with the game plan and offensive play calls in this one, and it seems to be a recurring issue that the plays are not always planned well with the players on the field. Raiola was consistently under pressure with no receivers yet in the break of their route and often times had to try and pull the ball down to scramble because a wideout didn't run the correct play. There were also instances of Raiola missing his reads and holding the ball too long, which again suggests there is a disconnect between what Dana Holgersen is looking for his team to execute and what they are understanding to execute. The remaining schedule for this team is very manageable, but also very much a disaster waiting if Nebraska doesn't get things figured out soon. Matt Rhule is 1-10 when Nebraska is sitting at 5 wins, and Husker fans won't be happy if that record continues to grow the wrong way. The offense needs to be the strength of this team as I said before the season, we'll see if they can bounce back this weekend.
Week 8 Results: 14 - 10
Overall Results: 128 - 50
Week 9 Predictions:
UCLA at #2 Indiana
One of the potential spicier matchups in the BIG 10 this weekend somehow features the UCLA Bruins who are oddly enough, firmly in the BIG 10 title race with a 3-1 conference record after starting 0-3 and firing their head coach. Indiana has found themselves with the highest ranking in school history and seem just as determined to keep moving up as they do to keep Curt Cignetti as head coach. They extended the 2nd year head coach by 8 years and bumped his annual compensation to more than $11.5 million. If you think he's allowing an upset at the hands of the Bruins to occur on his watch, you're crazy. Especially with UCLA traveling 3 time zones and playing at a 12 Noon kick which is 9 AM body clock time for them, this has Indiana beat down written all over it. The Hoosiers are extremely balanced on offense, but look for a big day from QB Fernando Mendoza. He's coming off a 332 yard, 4 TD passing day against Michigan State in which he completed 85.7% of his throws. He's in a groove that won't be disrupted and Nico Iamaleava won't be able to keep up. Hoosiers 45, Bruins 20.
Syracuse at #7 Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets are ranked 7th, which is their highest ranking since last reaching #7 in 2014 following their Orange Bowl Victory over Mississippi State. They look for a victory over the Orange of Syracuse today as they keep momentum building for a run at the ACC Championship. The 'Cuse are well coached by Fran Brown, but without QB Steve Angeli available, this team has really struggled over the past few weeks. Syracuse is 0-3 since losing their starting QB and has yet to score more than 18 points in his absence. Georgia Tech will look to grind it into the heart of the defense and wear them down through 4 quarters of smash mouth football. Brent Key has this team really playing well and I think the duo of QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes will be too much to stop. GT 31, Syracuse 17.
#8 Ole Miss at #13 Oklahoma
A heartbreaker for Ole Miss as they fell short between the hedges in defeating Georgia. After putting up 35 points in the first 3 quarters, the Rebels were outscored by the Dawgs 17-0 in the 4th. Now they go back on the road to battle a rugged Oklahoma team who is starting to get their rhythm back after beating South Carolina 26-7. The Sooners have an absolute GAUNTLET remaining, so this would be a big win to boost their confidence heading into November. Both teams need this win to keep playoff hopes alive, and as much as I love the offensive firepower of the Rebels, I think Oklahoma's defense at home is a difference maker. They do such a good job causing pressure on opposing QBs, racking up 28 sacks already this season, which is tied for 1st in the nation. It'll be best on best as the Rebels have only given up 7 sacks this season, but I like Oklahoma at home. This should be a very fun game to watch and I'm curious to see if Lane Kiffen can prove me wrong. Boomer Sooner as OU wins 27-21.
#18 South Florida at Memphis
A likely playoff elimination game is set to take place in Memphis as the Tigers host South Florida just 1 week after being upset by rival UAB. The Blazers surged after firing Trent Dilfer and brought home one of the best college football trophies (that I somehow just learned about) in all the land. A full rack of BBQ ribs was taken by UAB in a stunner, and now Memphis is in need of a statement win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Unfortunately, they'll be up against South Florida and QB Byrum Brown. He's currently responsible for 22 total TDs and more than 2,100 total yards. It's time folks start paying attention to him in the Heisman race, and they likely will after he shines in the victory over Memphis. Bulls defeat the Tigers for a key road win 38-23.
SMU at Wake Forest
A potential trap game awaits the Ponies as they head to Winston-Salem to take on the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest has been feisty all season, taking GT to the brink in Overtime and hanging tough with NC State earlier this season as well. SMU just won on the road at Clemson to avenge their ACC Title loss from last season and have Miami coming to Dallas next week. Certainly an easy spot to be looking ahead, but that's not what this team does. The Mustangs have a path back to the ACC Championship game and Rhett Lashlee certainly won't be letting his team overlook Wake Forest. We'll have a fabulous QB battle to watch as SMU's Kevin Jennings has nearly 2,000 passing yards with 17 TDs and 7 picks. His counterpart, Robbie Ashford, may not have the stats like Jennings, but is a dynamic playmaker within the offense, especially with his legs. He's rushed for 4 TDs this season and much like Jennings he'll extend drives with key scrambles on third down. Wake's defense has been good this season, but I like SMU's veteran experience to lead them though a tough road game and keep marching toward another ACC Title bid. Pony Up as SMU wins 27-21 on the road.
Kansas State at Kansas (Sunflower Showdown)
One of the few rivalry games of the weekend features the Wildcats against the Jayhawks. K-State has bounced back with wins in 2 of their last 3 games, and they're coming off a BYE. Kansas is also well rested, but they've been sitting on a 42-17 loss to Texas Tech for two weeks. Jalon Daniels is the key player to watch in this game. He's accounted for nearly 2,000 total yards with 19 TDs and just 2 picks. He does a great job taking care of the ball, and the Wildcats have struggled against dual-threat QBs, and are allowing 27 points per game. This one is a tricky game to pick, as it seems like a game K-State will be ready for, but I like KU at home. Rock Chalk as the Jayhawks win 31-28.
#4 Alabama at South Carolina
The Tide have been rolling since the opening loss to Florida State, and now head on the road to a South Carolina team nearing disaster on a once promising season. Ty Simpson has been lights out at QB, completing more than 70% of his passes for nearly 2,000 yards with 18 TDs and just 2 picks. South Carolina has done fairly well on defense, but offensively is where the struggles have been. The Gamecocks rank 134th in the nation in sacks allowed with 26. Alabama hasn't rushed the passer like they used to, but South Carolina's offensive line is paper thin. I expect Bama to have a strong presence in the backfield, limiting the rushing abilities of LaNorris Sellers. Ty Simpson will have the offense cruising and Alabama wins 34-14. Roll Tide.
#15 Missouri at #10 Vanderbilt
College Gameday is in Nashville as Vanderbilt hosts Mizzou for a top 15 matchup. The Tigers struggled on the road last week, pulling one out of the fire in double overtime against Auburn. Vandy put up 239 rush yards on LSU and have no problem showcasing their identity each and every week. They are going to line up and hit you in the mouth over and over. They are going to grind out this game and smash Mizzou all afternoon. The tigers rank 7th in rush defense, so it will be very fun to see who handles the run game in this one. Offensively for Mizzou, Beau Pribula started the season strong, but has 4 interceptions in the last two games. If Vandy can force some turnovers early, they can hold the Tigers at arms length with the run game. I believe in Diego Pavia, and this man is going to start putting together some Heisman film. Vanderbilt 30, Missouri 21.
#11 BYU at Iowa State
The Cougars travel to Ames as the last remaining unbeaten team in the Big XII. Iowa State has a lot of injuries this season and it's gone south with back-to-back losses to Cincy and Colorado ahead of their BYE. The Cyclones have ruined many a season with unbeaten teams coming to Ames, but BYU seems determined to prove they aren't tripping up any time soon. They commanded their game against Utah, and Bear Bachmeier has been fantastic in his first season. The stats don't necessarily jump off the page, but his ability to scramble and extend plays while taking care of the ball has helped BYU stay unbeaten. Iowa State QB Rocco Becht commands his offense well, so BYU needs to be sound on defense. I've been picking against the Cougars the last couple of weeks and they keep making me look bad. I'll take them on the road against the Cyclones and we'll see if they keep winning. BYU 33, Iowa State 28.
#23 Illinois at Washington
A fun BIG 10 clash between Illinois and Washington, two of college football middle of the road teams that you probably don't want on your calendar in late October or November. Both of these squads are more than capable of spoiling a season, so we'll see what they can do against each other in that vein. Washington returns home after a frustrating loss to Michigan where the offense was surprisingly stagnant against a defense that has struggled at times this season. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. threw 3 interceptions, limiting his team's options to move the ball. Illinois QB Luke Altmyer still has just the 1 interception on the season which came via a deflected pass off his receiver's hands, so I don't put much blame to him on that. The Huskies certainly have the defense to slow down the Illini and cause pressure on Altmyer, but depending on which of their offenses show up will be the difference maker. Washington will need to get back to running the ball, especially as Jonah Coleman has struggled to find space over the last a few weeks. I think this game is truly a toss up depending on which teams come out, but I'll take Washington at home primarily because Illinois doesn't travel well, especially West. Huskies 26-23.
Minnesota at Iowa (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
If you like high-powered offenses, dynamic air raids and big play breakaways, don't even think about tuning into this game. Minnesota and Iowa meet for their annual Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale, a Bronze Pig trophy taken by the winner. Few trophies rival Floyd for the true embodiment of college football, and when the Gophers and Hawkeyes meet, it's always a battle. The Hawkeyes have dominated the series of late, winning 9 of the last 10, primarily because of timely Minnesota mistakes. Iowa does have a rugged defense yet again and offensively they will run the ball right down your throat. Don't expect much action through the air as Minnesota makes their mark with smart, underneath throws, and Iowa still has yet to accept the forward pass as a strategic concept in the game of football. Iowa QB Mark Gronowski hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since September 13th, but somehow the Hawkeyes are 3-1 with a 5 point loss against Indiana over that time frame. Gronowski is essentially a running back who calls the plays in the huddle for Iowa, but he's been tough to stop with 10 rushing TDs on the season and an average of 4.3 yards per carry. He'll test Minnesota's 19th ranked rush defense, but I'm positive the Hawkeyes will find some way to win after the Gophers fumble a basic handoff in the 4th quarter while up 3 just because that Kinnick Stadium voodoo messes with you. Iowa hangs onto Floyd with a 24-20 win.
San Diego State at Fresno State
The Aztecs travel north to the Valley as Fresno State unveils blackout jerseys with nasty looking helmets. The Bulldogs will need more than drip to beat San Diego State though, as both teams are on the brink of bowl eligibility. SDSU Junior RB Lucky Sutton is one to watch as he's averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has 6 TDs on the ground. Bryson Donelson isn't far behind 4.8 yards per carry for the Bulldogs, but SDSU ranks 16th in rush defense. If EJ Warner can take care of the rock, I like the upset potential at home. SDSU's defense doesn't get moved much, and despite the blackout uniforms, I don't think Fresno will be able to get many big plays on the Aztecs. SDSU 34, Fresno State 24.
Baylor at #21 Cincinnati
The Bearcats have been red hot on offense since their opening season loss to Nebraska, and QB Braden Sorsby is my dark horse Heisman candidate if they can keep up this level of play. His only pick on the season came from Malcom Hartzog with Nebraska, and since then he's thrown 18 TDs with nearly 1,800 yards and then has another 340 yards rushing with 6 TDs. The Cincy offense is averaging 37.9 points per game, ranking 15th in the nation. Baylor has no problem putting up points, but defensively they give up quite a few as well. Sawyer Robertson has nearly 2,400 yards with 21 TDs and 7 picks, so we could easily have an old fashioned Big XII shootout. The Bears are -7 in turnover margin, so give me Cincy to keep rolling at home. Bearcats best the Bears 40-24.
#22 Texas at Mississippi State
The Longhorns narrowly escaped Kentucky with an overtime win after stuffing the Wildcats on the goal line and walking it off with a field goal. They've got a few dangerous games left on the schedule to prove me right when I say they're going to lose at least 3 more games. Could the Bulldogs pull the upset and be one of those games? Mississippi State has hung tough with teams, but has yet to win an SEC game since 2023. Their defense has been stingy though, ranking 21st in the nation with a +5 turnover margin. Arch Manning has still struggled in recent weeks, despite the wins, and I know the Bulldogs will look to put pressure on him early. Offensively for Mississippi State, everything runs through QB Blake Shapen. He's thrown a pick in each of their last 3 games, all losses in SEC play. Texas has a top tier defense and will likely shut down Shapen and company fairly quickly. If he can make smart and efficient throws, there's certainly opportunity for an upset. Texas won't score much offensively and with a home date against top 10 Vandy next week, they could fall into the trap game. As always, I'm rooting for the upset, but Texas likely escapes from another upset option. Building up to a big fall to finish the year. Hook 'Em for a 27-17 win.
#25 Michigan at Michigan State (Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy)
The Paul Bunyan Trophy is on the line as Michigan and Michigan State battle under the lights in East Lansing. Despite their struggles this season, Sparty always gets up for this game. This is one of the most heated rivalries in college football, and could be the final straw for Jonathan Smith at MSU if they don't perform well. The Wolverines don't do anything special, but solid defense and a strong running game has given Bryce Underwood a somewhat comfortable start to his college career. Michigan State will be anything but nice to the freshman QB, so expect a lot of blitz pressures from the Spartans. Offensively, I don't believe Aiden Chiles will have enough firepower around him to put up points on the defense. I expect a classic BIG 10 slugfest, potentially with some scuffles, but Michigan wins 27-17.
Houston at #24 Arizona State
The Sun Devils are right back in the Big XII mix after their upset win against #7 Texas Tech. Sam Leavitt returned from injury and threw for 319 yards and 1 TD against the Red Raiders. Houston beat Arizona by 3 last week and are squarely in the conference title picture as well. I've been impressed with the fight the Cougars have week in and week out, but I'm not sure they're ready to handle the desert. When Leavitt is playing, Arizona State is a completely different team. Houston will certainly hang around, but I don't think they'll make the key plays to win this one on the road. Arizona State 36, Houston 24.
#2 North Dakota State at #1 South Dakota State (Battle for the Dakota Marker)
I don't often cover FCS games in my blog, but when we've got the battle of the Dakotas you know I'm weighing in. Statistically these teams match up extremely well, both QBs have 11 TDs with just 1 pick. Both running backs are averaging around 5 yards per carry, and both teams each own 2 of the previous 4 National Championships. There's a good chance we see them battle again in the playoffs or maybe the Natty again, but I'm going with my home-state Jackrabbits to beat the Bison. SDSU 34, NDSU 32.
#3 Texas A&M at LSU
The highlight game of the night features the undefeated Aggies of A&M heading to Death Valley and facing off against the Tigers of LSU under the lights. LSU is in serious danger of this season going off the rails after losing at Vanderbilt last week and giving up 239 rushing yards. The Aggies are primed to find themselves in the SEC Championship and at the very least, a home game for the Playoffs. The remaining schedule also includes road games at Mizzou and Texas, but if they survive Death Valley, things are looking good for A&M. Mike Elko has his defense playing very high caliber football, but only at home. Road games have not looked great for the A&M defense, allowing 40 to Notre Dame and 42 to Arkansas. The offense has been great for A&M all around, led by QB Marcel Reed. He's taken big steps in year 2 and has accounted for 19 total TDs. His wideouts Mario Craver and KC Concepcion are two of the best in the nation and have racked up 30+ catches a piece for 647 with 4 TDs (Craver) and 500 with 6 TDs (Concepcion). LSU's defense is improved but will be without star LB Whit Weeks. This will be the best wideout room they've faced this season though, and I'm curious to see how they stack up in the secondary. Offensively, fans are growing restless of poor performances. The run game is essentially non-existent, ranking 117th in the nation and Garrett Nussmeier has spread the ball well, but doesn't have a single wideout over 325 yards on the season. Night games in Death Valley with A&M facing the pressure of a top 3 ranking is begging you to take LSU, but I think Elko has this Aggie squad feeling different. They were 1 game away from the SEC Championship a year ago and I think they make it this year. Aggies win in Death Valley 30-26.
Northwestern at Nebraska
The Huskers return home after an abysmal performance in Minneapolis, once again looking to get bowl eligible. I've ben wavering from my initial season predictions and picking Nebraska to win games I originally thought they would lose. This was going to be a game I had no issues picking as a victory, but the Wildcats have surprised many (including myself) with a 5-2 start. Preston Stone has found new life in his QB career with Northwestern and most importantly their defense ranks 22nd in total defense and 11th in scoring, allowing just 15.1 points per game. They shut down the run well and will likely blitz the Huskers after watching Minnesota film. Nebraska should match-up well on defense, keeping this to an Big 10 West type battle. My rule for those is the first team to 20 often wins and if you score 30 it's a lock. I don't think Northwestern can get to 30 on the Blackshirts, but it will depend on if the Husker offense decides to play or not. Nebraska had just 36 rush yards last week and Raiola looked very confused in the pocket as receivers were not in their breaks and the offensive line let players through with little to no contact. The Huskers have talent built all around in this offense, but establishing the run with Emmett Johnson needs to be a top priority. He only had 7 touches in the first half last week and the run game was quickly abandoned despite the close game. It would be nice to get Jacory Barney Jr. involved again as he's been quiet the last few weeks offensively. Nebraska should bounce back in this game and I've got the Huskers winning 31-21 at home.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Rutgers at Purdue - Two winless BIG 10 teams coming off terrible losses meet in West Lafayette with Purdue hosting Rutgers. Outside of RBs Antwan Raymond (Rutgers) and Devin Mockobee (Purdue), I don't have much to say about either squad. Boilermakers are -11 in turnover margin, so let's go with the Scarlet Knights on the road 31-24.
#16 Virginia at North Carolina - The Cavaliers control their own destiny (with a very manageable schedule) to reach the ACC Championship. The Tar Heels have not looked good this year, and as long as Virginia keeps their balance on offense, points will be on the board. Cavaliers win 38-21.
Appalachian State at Old Dominion - Certainly not the sexiest of games, but a Sun Belt squabble between two teams in desperate need of a bounce back game. The Mountaineers run the ball well, but I like ODU to win at home. Give me the Monarchs 33-28.
Auburn at Arkansas - Both Auburn and Arkansas are in need of a win. The Hogs nearly knocked off A&M last week while Auburn has 4 close losses in a row to start off conference play. Arkansas has lost close multiple times this season as well, so I'm curious to who will step up and make the big play. I'll trust QB Taylen Green to be that guy, especially at home. Woo Pig Sooie as Arkansas beats Auburn 37-31.
Wisconsin at #6 Oregon - The only question to ask in this game is if Wisconsin will score any points. The Badgers have been shut out the last two weeks against Iowa and Ohio State, and have yet to score above 20 against anyone not named Middle Tennessee State. Luke Fickell has the support of the Athletic Department for now, but this could get ugly. Ducks roll 48-7.
Colorado at Utah - The Utes have been unable to get over the hump in big games this season, falling to rival BYU 24-21 last week in Provo. They will likely be without starting QB Devon Dampier, but they should handle Colorado at home. Utah 24, Colorado 21.
Thanks for reading all my Week 9 Predictions and the reflections from last week. I appreciate all my followers on the blog and hope you have a fantastic College Football Saturday. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando