Hello Football friends and welcome to the National Championship! We've reached the end of our 2025-2026 season journey and it's brought us to Miami, Florida where the hometown Hurricanes take on the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers. It still seems impossible to say Indiana has a shot at going 16-0 in football with a National Championship victory, but here we are. The Hoosiers and Hurricanes have shown nothing but toughness throughout the entirety of both the playoffs and the season as a whole. This post will give my prediction of the game along with some transfer portal thoughts, highlights from my first ever AFCA Coaches Convention and some thoughts on potential playoff expansion being discussed. As always, there's so much going on in college football, so let's dive right into it.
Starting with my recent trip to Charlotte, NC, I attended my first American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) Convention. This was a great experience to connect and learn from coaches all around the United States and even some from international programs. As I continue to look for opportunities to expand my career into college football, this was a great first step in building those all-too-important connections. I was also able to attend multiple sessions where coaches at various levels talked through some X's and O's. There were some very unique systems and fantastic drills I plan on using in my coaching career. A special shoutout to Coach Zacharias from Richmond as his presentation on how DBs can decipher WR stems off the snap was so much fun, especially for myself who played both positions back in the day. Appreciate all the coaches that presented and took the time to connect with me.
Throughout the convention, one message was very clear from the coaches, the transfer portal and NIL dealings are a mess right now. This convention was actually a bit thin in some of the higher level coaches attending because of the transfer portal over lapping. I also had the chance to meet with some fellow journalists who cover college football for the Athletic. A great group of writers that everyone should go look up if they have the chance, starting with David Ubben, co-host of my favorite College Football Podcast: Bunch Formation. While talking with the sports writers, we were approached by an FCS head coach who gave us quite the story about a typical interaction in the portal. I'll leave the specifics out of the blog as it wasn't a formal interview, but the story he gave explained how an athlete he was recruiting for his program was offered a walk-on position with $100,000 NIL deal at a Power 4 FBS school. The head coach talked with the athlete between visits as he was supposed to visit the FCS school next, explaining that his school would be giving him a scholarship, room and board along with a smaller NIL package. Highlighting how that $100k would be split up for various expenses including school, housing, food, insurance and taxes, he encouraged the athlete to still visit his program before making a final decision. The athlete ultimately decided to cancel his flight (and effectively his visit) to the FCS school, but because he was in between visits the Power 4 school was no longer allowed to pay for him to fly back to their campus or to home. The FCS school was expected to pick up the next air fare tab for the athlete's official visit, but because the athlete canceled, they had no obligation. So the athlete effectively stranded himself in whatever airport hub he was at while between visits and the compliance office of the P4 school was calling the FCS school trying to get them to pay the bill to fly that kid home. I wonder if they used some of his NIL deal to buy his tickets.
In addition to the large dollar signs being thrown around, many coaches explained to myself and others how most of these athletes are getting bad advice from family members or makeshift agents who were looking for a quick pay day. Another FCS coach who spoke on a panel explained that any player with the opportunity to play college football at the D3, D2, NAIA or D1 levels of any kind are in roughly the top 8% of all football players, if you make it to D1, you're in the top 4%. So athletes looking to jump around from one division to another for a big pay day, are not appreciating what their current opportunities are. We saw a good example of that in this cycles as well over 1,000 players at each level were left stuck in the portal. Some likely pushed toward the promise of a bigger payday by an agent. Another head coach from the D2 ranks explained that while his school has become very portal heavy in their recruitment, he refuses to discuss NIL packages with athletes until later in the recruitment processes - "If your first conversation with me involves asking how much money we have for you or telling me to talk to your agent, we're done. I can't call your agent when you drop a pass." Also on that panel was Baylor head coach, Dave Aranda. He explained how finding the right type of player is just as important as spending the money in the right areas. It can be difficult to have more of your money on the sideline because guys aren't developed enough, and you have to find the difference between a kid who wants to play and who wants to win. "Guys who want to play [football] are focused on money, gear and attention. Guys who want to win are focused on development and football." Truly a great experience at AFCA and I loved all the new perspectives shared around so many unique parts of this sport.
Shifting my thoughts to the current playoff expansion discussions going on, I have very little to say other than LEAVE IT BE! The reports of a 16-team or 24-team playoff are extremely frustrating when you have seen the success of the 12-team playoff in just the two years of existence. I think an adjustment needs to be made with the committee and a BCS type computer system should be brought in for extra metrics, but the 12-team playoff has been phenomenal. Over the past two seasons, you've had 20 different teams in the playoffs overall, 13 different teams in the quarterfinals, 8 different teams in the semifinals and 4 different teams playing for the National Title. The 12-team playoff has enhanced the regular season and it gives a pathway for all 136 teams in Division 1 FBS football. We finally have a system that can squeeze out whatever parity is available in this sport, despite some of the biases pushing certain teams and conferences forward. I get the money game and how all the conferences and big wigs want to make more money, but sacrificing more passion and integrity of this sport for a few more games is ridiculous. The SEC does not have 7 teams capable of winning a national title, same for the BIG 10. As a Husker fan and football analyst, I study the BIG 10 a lot. The three best teams (Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon) got into the field, USC, Michigan and others were not good enough. The regular season games have to matter. There has to be a consequence for losing an October or November game instead of saying "no big deal, we'll still be in the top 24 teams for the bracket". Expanding the playoffs does nothing in terms of getting higher quality games, it's simply for larger amounts of money. I'm the last person who would want to see fewer football games, but at the cost of minimizing the importance of what these game mean in unacceptable. I believe the playoffs should stay at 12, this system has proven to be a good one with providing a pathway for every team, while ensuring every game you play has both rewards and consequences.
College Football Playoff National Championship
#10 Miami Hurricanes vs #1 Indiana Hoosiers
After three straight wins on the road and outside their home state, the Hurricanes get to play for the National Title at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. Rugged play on the line of scrimmage and smart decisions by veteran QB Carson Beck have led the 'Canes back to the promised land under alumni Head Coach Mario Cristobal. Miami's revived run game is led by Junior RB, Mark Fletcher Jr., who's racked up nearly 400 yards on the ground in the playoffs alone. Beck has been patient in the pocket and does well to take what the defense gives him with underneath throws. His legs proved to be a difference-maker against Ole Miss, scrambling for first downs and the winning touchdown at key points in the game. They'll look to get the ball in to the hands of star wideout Malachi Toney early and often. Toney is one catch away from his 100th of the season and already has over 1,000 yards to go with his 9 touchdowns. Defensively, the Hurricanes love to create havoc in the backfield as Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor combining for 19 total sacks on the season, helping Miami rank 1st in the nation with 47 sacks overall. They have been able to get pressure on everyone this season, but can they do it against Indiana? The Hoosiers have steamrolled every team in their way, boasting a national best +473 scoring margin. Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza executes this offense flawlessly behind a star-studded offensive line, and always seems to make the right decision with the ball. Miami's secondary is likely to struggle against Indiana's wide array of pass catchers, especially with multiple injuries and a first half targeting suspension in that sector of the field for the Hurricanes. Mendoza and his wideouts have been so good this season many people overlook the true power of this Indiana offense, running the ball wherever and whenever they want. The Hoosiers rank 12th in the nation with nearly 220 rush yards per game and average 5.3 yards per carry. The 1-2 punch of Roman Hemby and Kealon Black is hard to understate when there's more than 2,000 yards of turf behind their cleats this season, but the violence and vision these backs run with will certainly put Miami's 6th ranked run defense to the test. Indiana's defense is one of the nation's best as well, especially when forcing teams off the field on third down. Just over 30% of those conversions have been made this year and Miami could be in for a rude awakening if they get behind the chains. I do believe this could be an entertaining game for a while, but Indiana has looked completely dominant all season long, especially in the playoffs. Miami has the talent, they've shown their toughness in these Playoffs, but I don't think Carson Beck will be able to handle this defense. I don't think Mario Cristobal will out coach Curt Cignetti, and I don't think the U of Miami is tough enough to hang with the Indiana Football Hoosiers. As weird as it is to say, Indiana is your 2025-2026 National Champion as they defeat the Hurricanes 34-17. What an amazing college football season this has been. Thank you all for sticking with me throughout it and I'll have more thoughts to come after the game. Enjoy the Natty!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando