We're nearing the end of our College Football season as there are just 3 games left until we crown a new champion! Miami, Ole Miss, Oregon and Indiana are the 4 teams that remain, meaning we will be witnessing some history with Miami being the only team to win a national title (most recently in 2001) and Ole Miss claiming 1960 for a national title with a 10-0-1 record. Both BIG 10 representatives have never won a national title although Oregon has been close on a few occasions. We'll break down each game and what to expect from our semi-final matchups. These should be two great games, so let's dive in!
Bowl Game/Postseason Record: 26 - 14
College Football Playoff Semi-Finals:
#10 Miami vs #6 Ole Miss - VRBO Fiesta Bowl
The Hurricanes and the Rebels meet in the desert for our first semi-final matchup. These are two teams with conflicting styles as Ole Miss is ready for a shoot out any day of the week, but Miami plans to suffocate their opponents on the line of scrimmage. The Hurricanes did just that in their win against Ohio State, racking up 5 sacks on Julian Sayin for -42, 7 tackles for loss and dominating time of possession by nearly 7 minutes. The Buckeyes gave a strong push late in the second half, but ultimately the power of Miami's front from both sides of the ball won them this game. Carson Beck has been playing very well the last month and a half, throwing just 1 picks since the loss to SMU. He hasn't had to make many big throws, thanks to the emergence of their ground game under a healthy Mark Fletcher Jr. who is averaging 7.3 yards per carry throughout the playoffs. The Rebels' defense played very well against Georgia, allowing just 124 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs haven't been great at running throughout the season, but the dual-threat abilities from Gunner Stockton did give Ole Miss some headaches on 3rd down. They'll need to contain Carson Beck and try to keep Miami in 3rd and long situations so he can't nickel and dime them up the field with short passes. Ole Miss does have the ability to get pressure though, recording 2 sacks and 9 tackles for loss against Georgia. I was very impressed at how the Landsharks pursued the ball carrier, stretching Georgia's run game horizontal more often than not. That aggressive pursuit on the ball gives me hope they can compete on the lines with Miami. If they handle their business up front, Trinidad Chambliss could have yet another big game. In their two losses, Miami struggled to contain Miller Moss and Kevin Jennings in the pocket. Both of those players, along with Chambliss, are fantastic at extending plays and creating some magic during the scramble drill. The Ole Miss receivers are very much on the same page with Chambliss, even when he goes off script. This will put a lot of pressure on the Hurricanes' secondary. Be sure to watch how often they give up a chunk play because of Chambliss evading pressure. If Ole Miss starts fast, this is their best chance to win. Put Miami in a hole and make Carson Beck the feature player, not Mark Fletcher Jr. You cannot let the Hurricanes dictate the tempo and script of the game. We all know Ole Miss is playing with a lot of pride, their situation with Lane Kiffen might be the most motivating among all teams left in the field. However, the dominance on the line of scrimmage shown by Miami in the first two rounds has been eye-opening. If Ole Miss can't get the jump, I expect the Hurricanes to slowly suffocate them and Chambliss will be under a lot of heat from Reuben Baine Jr. and Ahkeem Mesidor. Look for them to be in the backfield a lot and I'll go with Miami 30-24.
#1 Indiana vs #5 Oregon - Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
A BIG 10 rematch is set for semi-final number two as the Indiana Football Hoosiers take on the Mighty Ducks of Oregon. The first round went to Indiana as they got one of their statement wins on the season, defeating Oregon at Autzen Stadium 30-20. It's the only blemish on another great season from the Ducks, but can they finish the job this time? Oregon did their best to make a statement last week in the quarter-finals, shutting out Texas Tech 23-0. While the defense was on display, the Red Raiders did limit Oregon to just 64 yards rushing and 309 total yards. I wouldn't expect the Hoosiers' defense fall far from that as Alabama didn't even reach 200 total yards. In the last meeting Indiana racked up 6 sacks and 8 tackles for loss, keeping Dante Moore under constant pressure. The Hoosiers are great about keeping opponents behind the chains, allowing just 28% conversion rate. The Ducks rank 27th in the nation with 45% conversion rate for third downs, but they aren't afraid to go for it on fourth if necessary, converting 18/30 for 60%. I trust both of these coaches to build fantastic game plans, especially for a semi-final game. However, Dan Lanning's squads always seem to miss the right play at the right time in these big games. Oregon has had a few games where they looked a little flat this season, and Indiana seems ready to smash anyone in their path. This will be a phenomenal battle in the trenches, and don't forget Oregon can rush the passer well too with 29 sacks on the season. However, this Indiana team seems like they're destined to dance in some confetti, so I'm calling the Indiana Football Hoosiers to win this game 27-17. Watch how the Indiana Oline moves people around late in the game. They get stronger as the game goes on and that's hard to match.
Thank you for reading my semi-final playoff predictions and enjoy the games!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando