Nebraska lost their fourth straight game at Illinois on Friday night last week 24-13, not looking very competitive throughout the entirety of the game rather than the 4th quarter. Once again, the Huskers out-gained their opponent by 50 yards and held the ball for nearly 4 more minutes than the Illini. Red zone scoring was an issue along with 2 missed field goals. Following the game, Nebraska fired Offensive Coordinator Dana Holgorsen, moving play-calling duties to the Assistant OC/Quarterbacks Coach Glenn Thomas. I've got all my thoughts broken down below with my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD analysis.
GOOD - Not much, but I'll say Jacory Barney Jr. The Husker wideout was one of the few bright spots on a dismal offensive performance last Friday night. He caught 6 passes for 93 yards and a surprise touchdown on a pass that most Husker fans thought would be picked. Barney emerged out of the coverage with the ball and scampered for a 51-yard touchdown on a terribly planned pass from Colandrea that somehow had two Husker receivers in the same spot along with three Illini defenders. Barney made a couple plays in the return game as well, dodging defenders for 54 yards of punt returns on 3 opportunities with a long of 26. Would love to utilize him as a weapon more in this offense, but he does struggle to get separation from defenders at times.
EXPECTED - Unprepared team & firing Dana Holgorsen. I had this game as an L from schedule release as this team never performs well on Friday night or on the road. Not sure if that's part of the Husker curse, but it's just never good football if you find Nebraska on a Friday night road game. With the OC firing, this is the "expected" move, but what does it fix? First off, Holgorsen is one of the few coaches on staff with extensive play-calling experience. If you look at the rest of your offensive coaching staff, you have the former OC who was demoted to TE coach for failing at this job, and a group of your RB, WR and OL coaches who have never called plays at a P4 level or at all. You land on the assistant OC/QBs coach who does have P4 play-calling experience a few years ago at Arizona State, but nowhere near the level of experience Dana Holgorsen has, so why are we expecting this to be better? In the press conference earlier this week he said Matt Rhule may be involved in the play-calling mid-game, which is a whole other disaster waiting to happen. I understand that a "change" needed to happen, and as a head coach with a spiraling team, firing the OC is the move you make to save yourself for a bit longer, but this is like putting a bandaid on a broken leg. The offense has issues, but a new coordinator will not magically fix this steam and we're also not getting a new OC until the offseason. Expected move, not the right one.
BAD - Vibes. Fans are over it, they're pretty much done with this team. I'm sure many of my fellow Huskers reading this felt that pit in their stomach that I did when they kicked off Friday night, knowing we were in for three hours of pitiful football. Watching the Huskers line up for a 4th & 1 with a 5-wide empty set and Jacory Barney Jr. running a negative drag route instead of staying at the first downline was almost soul-crushing. This team is poorly coached, they do not know how to finish game and frankly, they look worse than some of the G6 teams I've watched this season. No knock to the G6 schools, because I love every college football program team in the nation, but if you're a BIG 10 team with the resources that Nebraska has, you should never have an on-field product that looks like this. It's unacceptable when you continue to ask fans to give more to this team and nothing is changed or improved upon year after year. Penalties are still a major issue in year 4, basic route concepts look foreign to these receivers and simple coaching decisions like running the ball on 4th & 1 with a running back who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry in the game are ignored. Bad vibes all around with the Husker Football program. Is it beyond repair?
Week 10 Thoughts:
- Shockingly, the CFP Committee rankings are still completely unexplainable. ACC with little to no respect, SEC teams inflated by wins against very mediocre teams, BIG 10 teams falling because of bye weeks and for the love of God, will someone please rank New Mexico?! They are the best G6 team and deserve a shot.
- 24 team playoff is official and conference championships are gone. Expected result but the bigger question are why conferences exist at this point?
- Georgia is back on the track and speeding up, big statement by the Bulldogs on the road.
- Strong comeback from the Hurricanes, but a big win for the Irish.
- Holy War lived up to they hype. Both BYU and Utah are playoff caliber teams, Cougars just need to cut down on the mistakes.
- Bama & Tennessee roll, I wish there was a way to see which of them is better and should be ranked higher.
- Lane Kiffin and the Tigers have Texas, at Tennessee and Arkansas to finish. Playoff hopes are thin even with 3 straight wins.
- Oregon stomps Ohio State and both teams are going to be on the bubble for the Playoffs.
- UCLA is rolling, looking forward to their final three games.
- Texas Tech survives a shootout with West Virginia. Great game and QB Thomas Castellanos has given a much needed boost to the Red Raider offense.
- Michigan State wins their first BIG 10 game under Pat Fitzgerald, Michigan is in shambles. Couldn't happen to a better place.
Week 10 Results: 13 - 12
Overall Results: 152 - 99
Week 11 Predictions:
Duke at #7 Miami
The Blue Devils kick off the day by traveling to Coral Gables to take on the Hurricanes. Miami is fresh off their first loss of the season, and against Notre Dame the offense really struggled until late in the game. Duke brings in the #11 total defense and #5 scoring defense, allowing just 13 points per game. Darian Mensah has plenty of people to throw to on the Miami sideline, but losing Malachi Toney is clearly a big issue for this offense. Mensah faces off against the team he ditched in the offseason for a bigger paycheck, so an upset from Duke would be a fabulous story. While I think they're very capable, Miami has enough talent to outlast the Blue Devils. Hoping for the upset, expecting the chalk. Miami wins 27-21.
#13 Wake Forest at SMU
One of the best games of the day kicks off in Dallas as the Demon Deacons take on SMU. Kevin Jennings has yet to lose a home ACC game for the Ponies, but Wake Forest is looking for another shot at Miami in the ACC Championship. I had SMU picked to go back to the playoffs this season, meaning this is a must-win game. The Syracuse loss a couple of weeks ago really hurt SMU, but it may have woken them up as they dropped 51 on Virginia Tech last week, much more like what we expected from the offense this year. On the Wake Forest sideline, they're on pace for the best season in school history, led by the resurgence of Gio Lopez. The Demon Deacons average 43.3 points per game and have stomped everyone in their way. This one may be a bit closer, but the SMU defense has been proven to be vulnerable and Wake needs to make a statement to the committee. Give me the Deacs for a big time win against my favorite Ponies. Sorry SMU, but I like Wake Forest to win 33-28 on the road.
Northwestern at #20 Ohio State
The Wildcats enter the Horseshoe, looking for their first win in Columbus since 1971. Chip Kelley will be without his starting quarterback again as Aidan Chiles is still battling an upper-body injury. The Wildcats struggled last week without Chiles, going 1 of 11 on third down. Ohio State was throttled by Oregon, exposing some serious flaws. Regardless, I think Ohio State has enough talent to mange this game. Buckeyes win at home 31-10.
#8 Tennessee at Texas A&M
The Vols continue to impress and prove me wrong. My preseason prediction is in play if they lose out, but I don't think they're dropping 3 in a row with this defense. The offense still has major issues, but with a defense that owns a +6 turnover margin is always going to keep you in the game. Lucky for them, Aggieland is in disarray with Texas A&M sitting at 4-5. The Aggies could be going from a playoff appearance to missing a bowl game with Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas left on the schedule. Marcel Reed and the offense are abysmal and Reed loves to throw to players in opposite jersey colors. I don't trust Tennessee all the way still, but they should win here 30-17.
#22 Missouri at #1 Georgia
Once again we're looking at an overhyped Missouri team who won't have many wins outside teams below .500 win percentage. Somehow they're ranked despite a comprable BIG 10 counterpart like Wisconsin with the same record and a win over ranked USC and similar losses to ranked programs like Notre Dame, UCLA and Iowa. Regardless, Georgia is on a warpath since their Auburn loss and I paid the price for picking against them last week. Won't make the same mistake twice. Bulldogs roll past the Tigers 45-3.
#18 USC at #9 Indiana
Coming off a bye week Indiana has a lot to prove after falling 5 spots in the rankings. USC was one of my BIG 10 Playoff picks, they still have a path to the playoff, but this is a must win. The Trojans offense can put up big numbers with QB Jayden Maiava, but the Hoosier defense is not one to trifle with. Josh Hoover is available to play, but there is question on if he will start as he continues to battle injuries. USC will need to convert a lot of third downs in this game, luckily they rank 15th in the nation at just a shade under 50% conversion rate. USC always struggles on the road under Lincoln Riley, and Cignetti's defense at home is hard to go against. Give me the Hoosiers in a statement win to the CFP Committee 24-17.
Michigan at #16 Oregon
The Wolverines are in grave danger of missing a bowl game in Kyle Whittingham's first season, and have to end their season with road trips to Oregon and Ohio State along with UCLA at home in between. The Ducks have had a resurgence after the road loss to Illinois, looking to potentially earn their way back into the playoffs with a path through the BIG 10 Championship. Dylan Raiola has woken up for 593 and 5 TDs over the past two games, giving a big boost to the Ducks' offense. Michigan's only solace this season has been their defense, holding teams to 16.2 points per game, but the offense is scoring just 19.6. There are a number of stories of team rifts coming from Ann Arbor, so give me Oregon to keep winning and get back in the playoff picture. Ducks 31, Wolverines 17.
FAU at Tulsa
A couple of teams in the middle of the pack of the American square off with FAU and Tulsa. Much like North Texas and UTSA will be putting up points on the board, be careful not to blink for too long or you could miss a score. Both teams dropped 60 last week and the quarterbacks have been dealing. FAU's Caden Veltkamp has nearly 2,800 yards passing with 27 TDs and just 5 picks. Baylor Hayes of Tulsa has nearly 1,700 pass yards to his name with just 2 picks. This should be a fun one to watch but I'll go with the Golden Hurricanes at home. Tulsa wins 45-42.
#19 Ole Miss at Oklahoma
Two teams who were unable to live up to the hype this season clash as the Sooners look to get bowl eligible and the Rebels want to rebound after a 35-point loss to Georgia. Oklahoma looked much better with the offensive coordinator change, putting up a 20-play drive that took up over 13 minutes on the Gators. They also had no turnovers, but Trinidad Chambliss presents other challenge for their defense. Oklahoma's defense has stepped up to the challenge for most every offense this year, and I think they can do it one more time. This game is moved to Sunday because of the FAA flight grounding, so we'll see what impact that has on the game. Oklahoma 27, Ole Miss 24.
Oregon State at #24 Boise State
College Gameday is (finally) going back to visit a G6 campus and they will feature the Boise State Broncos hosting the Oregon State Beavers. Earlier this season this game looked to be the deciding factor in a PAC-12 team locking up the G6 Playoff bid, but with back-to-back losses out of their bye week, Oregon State is searching for a path back to winning ways. Their once potent offense has mustered just 22 and 21 points in the past two weeks, struggling with turnovers and third down conversions. Boise State survived a scare on the blue turf a couple weeks ago from Texas State, but poured it on against Colorado State. The Beavers need to strike quickly in this one to build a lead, but I'm not sure it will be enough. QB Braden Atkinson is out, giving Malik Murphy the start. Beaver WR Jessee Legree and Boise RB Dylan Riley are the players to watch. Lots of points in this game, but Boise comes out on top 45-38.
Florida at #11 Kentucky
The Gators have fallen apart in recent weeks, scoring just 15 points over the past two weeks combined. Kentucky is coming off a tough loss on Rocky Top where their offense was held to just 6 points and they had 3 turnovers. The Wildcats have traditionally fallen quite short in this rivalry, but recently have found success with wins in 4 of the last 5. Florida's once potent offense has struggled, losing 4 of their last 5 on the season and seeing their run game fall apart. Jadan Baugh was running wild in the first half of the season, but since their big win against Ole Miss he has yet to crack 100 yards and has 3 touchdowns in the last 5 weeks compared to the 11 he had in the first 4 weeks. I think Kentucky's defense makes a stand and the Wildcats keep themselves in playoff conversations for another week. Kentucky beats Florida 34-31.
#2 Utah at #23 Arizona
Fresh off a win in the Holy War, the Utes have a dangerous trip to Tucson, taking on the Wildcats. Arizona has fallen just short in their big games, their only two losses coming against Texas Tech and BYU. They have the challenge of facing all three of the top teams in the Big XII, but they seem to fall short. Offensively, the Quarterback battle in this game is sensational, Utah's Devon Dampier vs Arizona's Noah Fafita. Both of these players bring a different style to their respective offenses, but give opposing defenses headaches. Fafita will pick apart your secondary and is extremely accurate, ranking 3rd in the nation with 73% completion rate. He doesn't turn the ball over much, so Utah shouldn't count on 4 picks today, despite how good their secondary is. Utah's Devon Dampier is a dynamic rusher who averages nearly 5 yards per carry and has seven rushing TDs on the season thus far. Two of those rushing touchdowns came against BYU with 89 rushing yards, so Arizona's defense will have their hands full. The Wildcats struggle against dual-threat QBs, so give me Utah to stay unbeaten on the road, I think they know they what they have to do to win without a let down. Utes 36, Wildcats 24.
#6 Texas at #21 LSU
The Longhorns travel to Death Valley as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive against the Tigers. Lane Kiffin needs to get a win here to stay in any kind of consideration for the playoffs and not disappoint the fans in his first season. The Tigers have been a bit disjointed at times, especially in the redzone. Last week against Alabama they moved the ball plenty, racking up 457 yards of offense, but had just 13 points to show for it. Texas brings in a tremendous pass rush, but their defense has been vulnerable at times. LSU needs to score points in the redzone if they want to win this week. On the other side of the ball, look for the Tigers to cause havoc in the backfield. They rank 3rd in the nation with 36 sacks, so look for Arch Manning to be under pressure consistently. This is the path to victory for LSU, make him uncomfortable and get back to his mistakes. We know the Texas offense only has a couple quarters of where they put things together, and under the lights in Death Valley is not an easy place to make adjustments on the fly. We'll see if they can do it, because I'm picking them one more time, GEAUX TIGERS! LSU wins 31-28.
UNLV at New Mexico
Despite lack of attention from the College Football Playoff Committee, New Mexico is one of the best teams in the nation and deserve a fair evaluation for the G6 bid. The Lobos don't have the most dynamic offense, but their top ranked defense allows just 240 yards per game and 10.9 points per game, both best in the nation. Jason Eck has this team extremely well prepared each week and they play with a physicality that is not matched across most of the nation. Their lone loss is on the road in Norman, Oklahoma, and if they hadn't lost their starting QB before the season began, that game may have been a win. Regardless, the Rebels of UNLV have a tough task here. They've lost 2 of their last 3, allowing 113 points in those three games. New Mexico's offense has an opportunity to put up points, but look for them to force a lot of turnovers to get this win. The Rebels are -1 and the Lobos lead the nation at +18. New Mexico continues to show why they are one of the most deserving playoff teams in the nation 27-17.
North Texas at UTSA
If you like points, be sure to bet the over on North Texas and UTSA. Two high-powered offenses that are no strangers to barn burners this season. The Mean Green average 44.7 points per game while the Road Runners average 33. Both teams are 7-2, looking to stay atop the American. Tayven Jackson, UNT quarter back ranks 3rd in the nation for pass yards, and UTSA just allowed 563 yards and 60 points to FAU last week and North Texas beat FAU 48-41 just a couple of weeks ago. I love my Meep Meeps, but give me the Mean Green to win it 55-49.
#12 Texas Tech at #25 Oklahoma State
The Red Raiders have a clear path to the playoffs, but it makes a stop in Stillwater for a high-scoring affair with the Pokes. Both teams have dynamic QBs that can make big plays to turn this game. Drew Mestemaker continues to impress with his arm talent, averaging nearly 330 yards per game and already throwing for 29 scores this season. Texas Tech's secondary ranks 136 out of 138 teams. The Big XII has a chance to get 3 teams in the playoffs, but mid-November is when chaos tends to happen. Give me the Pokes in a crazy shootout late night in Stillwater. Oklahoma State 48, Texas Tech 44.
Nebraska at Rutgers
The Huskers landed ahead of the FAA flight grounding, so they're prepped and ready to square off against the Scarlet Knights for an early day kick. Nebraska fired OC Dana Holgorsen after falling to Illinois as part of a 4-game losing streak where the offense has not scored more than 14 points across those 4 games. Rutgers has been abysmal this season, but Greg Schiano is returning for next season and looking to build momentum. Nebraska is 7-0 all time against the Scarlet Knights, so hopefully they don't ruin that, but I, along with most Husker fans, won't hold our breath today. The Scarlet Knights rank 118th in rush defense, so if Nebraska wants to win this game they need to run the ball, which will subsequently make their fans MUCH happier. Over this 4 game losing streak, Anthony Colandrea (who is well known for his rushing ability), has thrown 163 pass attempts, averaging 40 per game. Any Husker fan you ask and they'll say that's far too many. Interim OC Glenn Thomas will be under a microscope with his play-calling, especially with what I discussed up above. Hand the ball to your backs and run it against the 118th rush defense in the nation. This defense is vulnerable, take advantage and just get bowl eligible. For the Blackshirts, they catch a huge break as the Rutgers' best player is out for the rest of the season. Wide Receiver KJ Duff had ankle surgery and will miss the remainder of the games this year. The Huskers have been torched by some talented wideouts this season, so hopefully this allows the Blackshirts to contain the Scarlet Knight offense a bit more. Watch out for RB Antwan Raymond, he's averaging 5.3 yards per carry. This is the best chance to get your 6th win for the season, so you need to do it Huskers. It won't fix things with a win over Rutgers, but fans will at least be happy in knowing we aren't at the bottom of the conference. Huskers 31, Rutgers 21.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Cincy at Iowa State - A complete toss up between two hard playing teams. Sophomore RB Aiden Flora is my difference maker, especially because Cincy has given up over 230 rush yards in 3 of the last 5 games. Cyclones run wild and are one step closer to a bowl bid. ISU 37, Cincy 31.
Baylor at #10 BYU - Baylor is 2-0 under interim HC Joe Klanderman, but BYU is coming off a tough loss in the Holy War where they gave it away with 4 picks. The Cougars offense was unable to be stopped outside of their own mistakes in that game, so give me a big bounce back for BYU 34-21.
Fresno State at Texas State - Rugged defense versus a high-powered offense. The Bobcats have had back-to-back offensive explosions on the road, and now get to host at home. Fresno may get some stops, but they don't have the offense to keep up. Texas State 38, Fresno State 21.
Washington at Michigan State - The Huskies fell short in their comeback attempt against Penn State and now have to travel to East Lansing against a confident Michigan State that just earned their first BIG 10 win under Pat Fitzgerald. This Spartan team plays tough despite being severely undermanned. Give me SPARTA(ns) for a win against Washington at home 20-14.
Louisville at North Carolina - The Cards have fallen off the map after an early season showcase with those back-to-back losses to Wake and NC State. However, they've won 4 straight since then and now travel to Chapel Hill as the Tar Heels are looking to get bowl eligible. They've lost a couple of close games, and are much more dangerous than folks give them. I like UNC at home over Louisville 36-33.
Minnesota at Penn State - The Gophers have fallen apart late in games the last couple weeks, unable to pull the upset on Indiana or UCLA. All signs point to Penn State after back-to-back wins, which is exactly why I'm picking Minnesota. PJ Fleck has a way of turning this team around at the right moment and I don't think Penn State has things running properly yet. Gophers 26, Nittany Lions 20.
Thank you for reading my Week 11 Predictions and don't forget to tune into my show Inside Heart Football for all the breakdown of Football across the Heart of America Athletic Conference. We've reached the last week of the regular season and have some fantastic games to watch. Keep up to date with my weekly show and be sure to watch for Week 12 predictions on here next week.
#CFBKnowItAll🏈🧠
Alex Fernando
