Week 7 brought absolute chaos to much of the CFB landscape, and I expect much of the same in Week 8. We've got two ranked vs. ranked games in both Death Valleys, along with multiple top 25 teams on the road. I finally got back to .500 coming into last week with my predictions, but that was quickly demolished by the madness of Week 7. We'll see if I can fair better in the second half of the season. Thanks for reading all of my Gameday predictions!
Week 7 Prediction Results: 4-9
Overall Prediction Results: 37-42
Maryland at #19 Iowa
The Hawkeyes are ranked for the first time this season and they look to keep pace in the BIG 10 West as the Terrapins of Maryland come to Iowa City. The Terps are coming off of their win against Rutgers, and will be looking to break through the 5th best defense in the nation. The Hawkeyes only give up 282 yards per game on average and 16.5 points. The key factor to watch in this game will be Maryland's rushing attack against Iowa's front seven. Running Back Ty Johnson leads the Terps attack that averages nearly 250 yards per game on the ground. The Hawkeyes defense only gives up 81.5 on the ground however, so I'm anxious to see how this pans out. The Terps have surprised a lot of people this season, owning a 4-2 (2-1 BIG 10) record without Head Coach DJ Durkin and all of the off-field issues. Nonetheless, they are a talented football team and will likely hang around with the Hawkeyes for a while in this one. With a big road trip to Penn State looming just one week away, this is a potential trap game for the Hawks. They don't typically fall victim to those often, and with Nate Stanley and his bottomless list of Tight Ends to throw to, I doubt they'll have many issues today. Terps will put up some points, but Iowa is looking very strong this year. Hawkeyes win this one at home 37-21.
#9 Oklahoma at TCU
After a week to think about their loss to Texas, the Sooners find themselves back in the driver seat of the Big XII after Iowa State's upset win against West Virginia last week. Kyler Murray looks to continue his Heisman campaign against the Horned Frogs who have lost 3 of their last 4 games. TCU is always an upset potential team, but this game presents a very tall task. Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray has been absolutely stellar this season, accounting for 26 total TDs thus far, and challenging Tua Tagovailoa for the highest QB rating in the nation. This kid became my new Heisman favorite after watching him in the Red River Rivalry against Texas. Even in the loss, Murray accounted for 396 total yards and 5 TDs in that game. TCU has played better recently, but still have too much youth and inexperience to remain competitive in the conference. Shawn Robinson has 8 interceptions on the season thus far, and teams have been able to take wideout, KaVonte Turpin, out of the picture too often, suffocating the Frogs' offense. Even though OU's defense is not very strong, TCU has too much trouble getting the ball to their play-makers, and Oklahoma has too much firepower to keep up with. Sooners 48, Horned Frogs 30.
#6 Michigan at #24 Michigan State
The Battle for Bragging rights in the state of Michigan takes place in East Lansing this year as the 6th ranked Wolverines take on the 24th ranked Spartans. The primary story-line here (as it has been for the last couple seasons) is that Jim Harbaugh can't beat the rivals. Harbaugh is just 1-5 against "Little Brother" Sparty and arch enemy Buckeyes, creating some rifts throughout the Michigan fan base. Sparty is coming off a big win in Happy Valley against Penn State, but as I've mentioned multiple times, you never know which Michigan State team will show up. Dantonio is never someone to count out in a game though. Sparty also brings the nation's top ranked rush defense into this game, giving up just 62.3 yards per game on average. The Wolverines run a very balanced attack on offense, averaging 207 through the air and 217 on the ground. For State, QB Brian Lewerke is a big play-maker, but has thrown 7 picks already this year and has been sacked 14 times. Michigan's pass rush is so aggressive, I'd be surprised if he's able to get the ball off most of the time. The Spartans have excellent receivers, so we'll see how many points they can put up. This should be a true BIG 10, grind-it-out grudge match. I would be surprised if this one turned out to be as lopsided as the Wisconsin game was last week, but you just never know with these teams. I like Michigan in this game, and I think they have potential to be the BIG 10 rep in the College Football Playoffs. Sparty puts up a good fight, but Harbaugh gets a much needed win against one of his rivals and Michigan breaks their 17-road game losing streak to ranked teams. Wolverines 28, Spartans 21.
Colorado at #15 Washington
Well, after the Huskies' overtime loss to the Ducks last week, it's highly unlikely the Pac-12 gets a team into the playoffs this year. Oregon has an outside chance, but will need some help with teams ahead of them losing. As for the Huskies, they head home to take on the Buffaloes from Colorado, fresh off their first loss of the season at the hands of USC. The South division is still up for grabs, and Colorado will look to get back on track today against the Huskies. Washington's offense finally showed up a bit last week, racking up 437 total yards, but a missed Field Goal at the end of regulation sent the game to overtime, where the Ducks finished them off. The Huskies still have one of the most formidable defenses in the nation, but CU's offense isn't anything to overlook. They struggled against the Trojans last week, but the Buffs average nearly 35 points per game and over 450 total yards on average. Laviska Shenault Jr. is one of the best receivers in the nation, averaging 130 yards per game. Steven Montez might have some opportunities to pick apart Washington's defense, much like Justin Herbert did last week. Colorado is a dangerous team, but I doubt Chris Petersen would let his squad lose two conference games in a row this year. I say Washington fights off the Buffs in a bounce back game with a 24-21 victory.
#16 NC State at #3 Clemson
The biggest ranked game of the week takes place in Death Valley as two unbeaten teams in the ACC square off for control of the Atlantic Division. The Tigers and the Wolfpack are lead by two tough defenses and dynamic QBs. Ryan Finely, the veteran, has thrown for more than 1,600 yards so far this season with a 10:3 TD to INT ratio. It seems as though he's been QB for NC State since 2010. The Wolfpack hasn't played a very difficult schedule so far this season, especially since their game against West Virginia was canceled due to Hurricane Florence. It's hard to know truly how good they are, but they've always played Clemson tough year in and year out. Speaking of the Tigers, they have the 3rd ranked total defense in the nation and will be looking to flex their muscles in a big match-up. They're giving up just 14.5 points per game and 261 yards per game on average, and have recorded 20 sacks on the season through 6 games. Ryan Finely will need to make sure his protection is sound if he wants to do any damage in this game, because Clemson will be bringing the heat. On the other side of the ball, stud Freshman QB, Trevor Lawrence, has taken the reigns for the Tigers. Lawrence has helped boost the efficiency of this offense, which is averaging 42.2 points per game in 2018. The best kept secret of the Clemson attack is their rushing game with Travis Etienne. He's racked up 761 yards and 11 TDs on just 83 carries this season, resulting in a stunning, 9.2 yard per carry average. With all the hype and focus on Trevor Lawrence and the formidable defense, Etienne has quietly become the 6th leading rusher in the nation and should probably start being considered as a Heisman dark horse in my opinion. NC State only gives up an average of 107 yards on the ground each game, but I think Etienne will take care of that in no time. He'll have a big game in this one and lead Clemson to victory, seriously, don't lose sight of the Clemson RB when it comes to Heisman voting later this season! Clemson takes care of business 36-17.
#22 Mississippi State at #5 LSU
The Bayou Bengals continue their gauntlet of ranked teams as West Division foe Mississippi State comes to Death Valley. LSU absolutely dominated the Bulldogs of the East last week when they upset Georgia 36-16. They forced four turnovers against UGA and finished with a +7 margin in time of possession. Tiger QB Joe Burrow even had two rushing scores on the day. Mississippi State is coming off of their BYE week, so they'll be well rested for this showdown. Two weeks ago they knocked off Auburn 23-9, so you know this is going to be a tough, rugged, defensive game. Both offensive attacks are fairly balanced, but State does lean a little more on the run, especially with dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald. He leads the Bulldogs squad with 513 yards and 7 TDs on the ground. The Tigers have their own ground attack with RB Nick Brossette. Brossette averages just under 5 yards per carry and has 9 TDs on the season. It should be fun to watch these ground attacks run against the respective brick wall-like defenses each team possesses. LSU is always difficult to trust, but I like the Tigers at home in this one. That will set up a nice SEC West Division Title showdown with Bama in a couple weeks. Tigers beat their second squad of Bulldogs 24-13.
#2 Ohio State at Purdue
The Boilermakers start their gauntlet of a second half schedule with the first of 4 ranked teams over the next 5 games, and who better than the #2 Buckeyes. Purdue has been solid this season, but some early slip-ups on the year has them with a 3-3 record. They're still alive in BIG 10 play with a 2-1 record however, and have the offense to give any defense headaches. Having watched and called a game for this team in person, it was easy to see how talented they truly are. Senior QB David Blough has been incredible this season, completing 68.4% of his passes and throwing for nearly 1,700 yards. He's only thrown 2 picks this year as well. Running Back DJ Knox and freshman standout Rondale Moore are the two best weapons of their high-powered offense, and Head Coach Matt Brohm will look to get them the ball in space. One secret weapon Purdue possesses is their Tight End, Brycen Hopkins. He torched the Huskers for over 100 yards receiving and is a reliable target that Purdue likes to sneak out on wheel routes. Ohio State's defense could be pressured a little bit in this game, especially after Minnesota hung around with them last week. As they head into their BYE week, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Buckeyes with a lackluster performance yet again. Their schedule doesn't demand much attention right now and they're more than talented enough to win this game without playing their best. With that being said, I'm sure Dwayne Haskins will continue his video game-like season. He's already thrown for more than 2,300 yards and 28 TDs on the year, so expect more of that against a Purdue secondary that gives up nearly 270 yards per game through the air on average. Purdue will put up some points, but Ohio State will definitely put up more. No trap game for the Buckeyes today, they win on the road 44-33.
#12 Oregon at #25 Washington State
The Ducks are coming off a major win against rival Washington, but now travel to Pullman, where College Gameday has set up shop, to take on the Cougars. Washington State is a very quiet 5-1 this season and Mike Leach is never a coach to count out of a game. The air-raid attack of the Cougars racks up over 400 yards per game on average, and their offense ranks 1st in the conference. Senior QB, Gardner Minshew, has 2,422 yards through the air this year and is completing nearly 69% of his passes. He owns a 19:4 TD to INT ratio and has only missed 400+ passing yards in just two games this season. Oregon's defense gives up an average of 239 yards per game, so that will definitely be tested tonight. Statistically, these teams are remarkably similar. Oregon averages 43 points per game while the Cougars average 41.8. The Ducks give up 24.8 points per game compared to 23.8 for Wazzu. Two great QBs with endless amounts of weapons to throw to and two offensive-minded coaches who love to rack up yards and points. The big question will be on defense in this game. Wazzu ranks second in the Pac-12 in total defense and have recorded 18 sacks on the season. The Ducks will have a tough time putting up their usual numbers in this game, and coming off of a big win a week ago, there could be a bit of a drop off up in Pullman. This is a tough pick and it'd be pretty crazy to see the upset. I was always burned when I put my faith in Wazzu, and I sill believe the Pac-12 will be left out of the playoffs no matter what. This one should be close, but I'll take the Ducks. I'm excited to see what happens in this game, but Oregon wins it 47-43.
USC at Utah
Sticking with the Pac-12, we move to the South Division as the Utes take on the Trojans. As I've mentioned multiple times this season, the South is completely up for grabs in the Pac-12, and two of the front runners will be squaring off in Salt Lake City tonight. USC is coming off a big win against Colorado, but now have to face the top ranked defense in the conference in Utah. The Utes give up just 16 points and 300 yards per game on average. They rank 9th in total defense in the nation and USC's young offense could have some troubles tonight. JT Daniels has been improving, but is still a true freshman. USC's offense only averages 25.7 points per game, and Utah has scored 40+ in back to back games. Utah's QB Tyler Huntley is a big play-maker for the Utes, and his dual-threat ability opens up a lot of different looks on offense. I really like the Utes in this game and I think they're going to win and fight their way back into the South Division crown conversation. Utah wins a big one out West 34-20.
Minnesota at Nebraska (Battle for the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy)
The greatest trophy in the history of the world is on the line as Minnesota and Nebraska face off in Lincoln this afternoon. Based on a twitter war between a the Fake Bo Pelini account and Minnesota's Goldie Gopher, the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy was created for the rivalry between Nebraska and Minnesota. The Gophers hung around with Ohio State on the road last week, and now head to Nebraska to take on the 0-6 Cornhuskers. It's obvious the Huskers are well past due for a win, and last week is a perfect example why. The Huskers gave up a 10 point lead with 3 minutes left to eventually lose in overtime. The offense is really starting to move the ball well, and Adrian Martinez is one of only two QBs in the nation to average 225 passing yards and 50 rushing yards per game. The other QB is Kyler Murray of Oklahoma. The Huskers' offense has been extremely balanced over recent weeks, and they average 440.5 total yards per game. Minnesota has a tough run defense, giving up just 121.5 per game on the ground, but Devine Ozigbo will look to put up another stellar performance. Defense is the big question for the Huskers in this game, as they rank second to last in the conference. They made some good stops against Wisconsin and Northwestern over the last two weeks, but could not step up when it counted. Minnesota is lead by their own freshman QB, Zack Annexstad, who has struggled this year, completing just 52.7% of his passes and owning a 8:7 TD to INT ratio. I think Nebraska will step up their pressure on defense and really cause havoc for the Gopher offense. This is the day Husker fans. Nebraska gets the first win of the Scott Frost era with a 38-33 victory over the Gophers. GO BIG RED!
Now for some Quick Hit Predictions on other interesting games around the nation:
#20 Cincinnati at Temple- The undefeated Bearcats travel to Temple to take on the Owls. Don't knock the 3-3 Owls too quickly, since Sophmomore QB, Anthony Russo, has taken over, the Owls offense has come alive. This is a tough road game for Cincy, and I like the upset here. Russo has a big game and Temple upsets Cincy 31-27.
#1 Alabama at Tennessee- The Tide role in to Knoxville to take on the rival Volunteers. Jeremy Pruitt left Bama to take the job at Tennessee and has done fairly well this season. The Vols knocked off Auburn last week and can put up some points. Bama will have no issues today, but the 30 point spread is a bit too much for someone who coached at Bama just last season. The Tide Roll 49-30.
#18 Penn State at Indiana- The Nittany Lions season has imploded yet again in the past few weeks with back to back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State for the second year in a row. Indiana is a tough team at home and can hang around with teams. I think Penn State will be extra motivated today and Miles Sanders will have a big game. Nittany Lions 34, Hoosiers 14.
Vanderbilt at #14 Kentucky- The Wildcats have had two weeks to sit with their overtime loss, so I feel bad for Vandy. They gave up a big lead against Florida last week at home in a heated game, and now have to deal with Benny Snell on the ground and Josh Allen with the Wildcat defense. Kentucky is still very much alive in the SEC, and they'll prove it today. Wildcats win it 34-20.
North Texas at UAB- This might not be the most attractive game to most, but coming out of C-USA we have an interesting match-up in the state of Alabama. The Blazers are 5-1 this season with a defense that gives up just 14.2 points per game. North Texas averages just under 40 points per game, so welcome to the classic Buzzsaw vs. Rock game. Mason Fine of the Mean Green owns a 16:1 TD to INT ratio and half of those TDs have been thrown to Rico Bussey Jr. UAB could have a difficult time slowing him down and I think North Texas pulls off the upset on the road. This one is going to be tight, but I've got the Mean Green winning 34-30.
Thanks for reading my Gameday Predictions post and I hope you all have a wonderful College Football Saturday. Be sure to tune into my radio show on Monday night at 7 pm Central on KRNU2 online and get ready for a big celebration in Lincoln and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, October 20, 2018
Wednesday, October 17, 2018
Week 7 Reflections
Just when I thought it was impossible for Nebraska to find another way to lose, they found one of the most painful ones. Week 7 proved to be chaotic all across the College Football landscape, but especially for the now 0-6 Cornhuskers. Nebraska is now on a 10 game losing streak stemming from last year and off to their worst start in program history. This is just one of the many headlines from last Saturday, and this post will cover all the big headlines! Thanks for the support and read on below to see my reflections on Nebraska and the rest of CFB from Week 7.
Nebraska let victory slip through their grasp, falling in overtime to Northwestern 34-31. This is Nebraska's first loss to the Wildcats in Evanston and with a 10-point lead with around 3 minutes left in the game, everything looked to be in place for the first Husker win of the season. However, nothing is over in College Football until its over, and Northwestern has orchestrated numerous comebacks under Pat Fitzgerald before. I was very impressed with the Wildcat's play throughout the game, especially since they are completely one-dimensional on offense with the loss of RB Jeremy Larkin a few weeks ago. Clayton Thorson finished his 4-year torching of the Blackshirts with a 455 yard, 3 TD, 2 INT performance including a game-tying, 99-yard drive to send it to overtime. Nebraska seemingly had no answer for the Thorson-Nagel duo which racked up 220 yards through the air, 2 TDs and multiple 4th down conversions. A severe lack of pass rush gave Thorson far too much time in the pocket, allowing him to find his open receivers. Offensively, the Huskers played well for most of the game. Another balanced attack finished with 482 total yards and the Huskers even won time of possession by 7 seconds! My detailed breakdown of the game will cover my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD areas below.
GOOD- Nebraska overall played a great game, apart from the last 3 minutes of regulation. The Huskers offense racked up 482 yards of total offense (231 rushing, 251 passing), lead by another stellar performance by Devine Ozigbo. Ziggy finished with 159 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Holes were open all over the field and Nebraska's offense looked like one Coach Frost would be proud of. Martinez didn't have the best game, giving up the fumble for a TD, but his two picks were off of a dropped pass and the Hail Mary heave to the endzone in overtime. I think he needed to be used in the ground game a bit more, especially late in the game, but he still racked up 288 yards on his own. This offense has been really starting to click as of late and will continue as time moves on. Receivers are starting to get more separation and breaking out some big plays while the ground game has picked up. Defensively, this was one of our better games for a while, especially in the third quarter where we held Northwestern scoreless. The Blackshirts also forced five punts and picked off Thorson twice. Still a long ways to go, but things are picking up for the defense.
EXPECTED- Clayton Thorson having yet another big day against the Blackshirts. As I alluded to in my predictions post, Thorson has had substantial success in his four years against the Huskers. He's now 3-1 against Nebraska and has accounted for 1,124 passing yards with 5 TDs and 6 picks. They may not seem like the greatest numbers, but that's nearly 300 passing yards per game on average and he's now engineered back to back 4th quarter comebacks to eventually win the game in overtime. I'm not sure if he's looking at an NFL career, he'd have a lot of work to do before he becomes a top tier QB, but his collegiate career has been very fun to watch. I was impressed with his performance in Lincoln his freshman year, and he's gotten better each year since. The Wildcats will have a lot to replace with his leadership being gone next year, but as a Husker fan I'm excited for Thorson to be done throwing the ball against the Huskers!
BAD- The players' execution and staff's coaching during the last two drives of regulation (Nebraska's offensive series and Northwestern's final drive). Starting with the Huskers, a simple first down was needed to end this game. Nebraska took over in plus field position at the Northwestern 47 with 2:21 left on the clock. After three horribly conservative run plays gaining 3 yards and taking of just 16 seconds, the Huskers were forced to punt. Nebraska had been running the ball so well all game long, but went absolutely no where on the three rushes that mattered most. They were very simple plays to read, down blocks for the line and a hand off to Ozigbo allowed Northwestern's stout defense penetrate the line of scrimmage and quickly blow up the plays. I think Adrian's rushing ability should be utilized in a game-breaking situation like that, so I was quite upset with the play-calling. Now onto the 99-yard drive by the Wildcats, you just can't let that happen. Northwestern took over with just under 2 minutes left at their own 1-yard line thanks to an incredible punt by Isaac Armstrong. It doesn't mean much, but this is about the time when ESPN's game predictor had Nebraska with more than a 98% chance to win the game. Clayton Thorson had other ideas however. After yet another dumb penalty by the defense, the Wildcats were quickly out of the hole and on the move. The Huskers finished the game with a season-best 9 penalties!! Northwestern finished with just 1. Anyways, as the drive progressed and the Wildcats started moving the ball, it was clear the defense did not know what to do. After a 32-yard pass to Flynn Nagel, Northwestern had the ball at the Nebraska 32 with 20 seconds left. This is a crucial point in the drive because the Wildcats immediately ran to the line and threw the ball to Tight End Bennett Skowronek for a 27-yard gain down to the Huskers' 5. The Blackshirts were caught off-guard by the tempo (which Northwestern had done a few times throughout the game) and were not set on defense. After Nagel's 32-yard catch, I really think Coach Frost should've taken a time out to slow down the drive and settle his defense. Nebraska finished regulation with two timeouts left and I think a pause there would've been very helpful. It wouldn't have saved Northwestern any time either because Nagel had gone out of bounds after his catch. This is a bang-bang scenario and tough to manage, but Frost needs to watch for that, especially with a defense that has struggled this much all season. Obviously there's a lot of fault to the players when you give up a 99-yard drive in the final 2 minutes, but a timeout to settle this team could've made for a different ending in my opinion. It wasn't just the players who lost this game for Nebraska.
Nebraska played well, but continue to shoot themselves in the foot too many times to end up with a victory. Minnesota hung around with Ohio State until the end in the Horseshoe last week, so you never know what they'll bring to Lincoln this week. I'm anxious to see how the Huskers respond after knowing they definitely should've had that game.
Now for some other news around College Football from Week 7:
- There were 7 different top 25 teams to lose on Saturday (some to other ranked teams), but a handful of other top teams were nearly knocked off as well. The chaos is just beginning folks.
- LSU and Michigan State are absolutely the worst teams to make predictions on in my humbled opinion. The moment I put my faith in them, they lay an egg. The moment I feel like they won't show up, they knock off top 10 teams.
- Penn State's season has been blown up by Ohio State and Michigan State for the second year in a row. The Nittany Lions seemed to have lost their edge since the 4th quarter of the Ohio State game.
- Michigan looks very tough. They have a lot of potential to be challenging the Buckeyes for the BIG 10 East crown later this season.
- The SEC East is completely up for grabs after Georgia's loss. Florida almost fell to their trap game with some very heated competition from the Commodores and Kentucky is looking to bounce back after their BYE week. The fight for the right to lose to Bama should be a good one.
- Iowa State, always impressive with their upsets. West Virginia, you let me down again.
- Don't sleep on Oregon in the Pac-12. Probably won't make the playoffs, but they're in the driver seat for the North Title.
- UCF narrowly escapes Memphis with a win to keep their win-streak alive. Great game but close call.
Thank you all for reading my reflections post! I hope you're all having a fantastic week and are gearing up for Week 8! Predictions will be up on Saturday morning, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Nebraska let victory slip through their grasp, falling in overtime to Northwestern 34-31. This is Nebraska's first loss to the Wildcats in Evanston and with a 10-point lead with around 3 minutes left in the game, everything looked to be in place for the first Husker win of the season. However, nothing is over in College Football until its over, and Northwestern has orchestrated numerous comebacks under Pat Fitzgerald before. I was very impressed with the Wildcat's play throughout the game, especially since they are completely one-dimensional on offense with the loss of RB Jeremy Larkin a few weeks ago. Clayton Thorson finished his 4-year torching of the Blackshirts with a 455 yard, 3 TD, 2 INT performance including a game-tying, 99-yard drive to send it to overtime. Nebraska seemingly had no answer for the Thorson-Nagel duo which racked up 220 yards through the air, 2 TDs and multiple 4th down conversions. A severe lack of pass rush gave Thorson far too much time in the pocket, allowing him to find his open receivers. Offensively, the Huskers played well for most of the game. Another balanced attack finished with 482 total yards and the Huskers even won time of possession by 7 seconds! My detailed breakdown of the game will cover my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD areas below.
GOOD- Nebraska overall played a great game, apart from the last 3 minutes of regulation. The Huskers offense racked up 482 yards of total offense (231 rushing, 251 passing), lead by another stellar performance by Devine Ozigbo. Ziggy finished with 159 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Holes were open all over the field and Nebraska's offense looked like one Coach Frost would be proud of. Martinez didn't have the best game, giving up the fumble for a TD, but his two picks were off of a dropped pass and the Hail Mary heave to the endzone in overtime. I think he needed to be used in the ground game a bit more, especially late in the game, but he still racked up 288 yards on his own. This offense has been really starting to click as of late and will continue as time moves on. Receivers are starting to get more separation and breaking out some big plays while the ground game has picked up. Defensively, this was one of our better games for a while, especially in the third quarter where we held Northwestern scoreless. The Blackshirts also forced five punts and picked off Thorson twice. Still a long ways to go, but things are picking up for the defense.
EXPECTED- Clayton Thorson having yet another big day against the Blackshirts. As I alluded to in my predictions post, Thorson has had substantial success in his four years against the Huskers. He's now 3-1 against Nebraska and has accounted for 1,124 passing yards with 5 TDs and 6 picks. They may not seem like the greatest numbers, but that's nearly 300 passing yards per game on average and he's now engineered back to back 4th quarter comebacks to eventually win the game in overtime. I'm not sure if he's looking at an NFL career, he'd have a lot of work to do before he becomes a top tier QB, but his collegiate career has been very fun to watch. I was impressed with his performance in Lincoln his freshman year, and he's gotten better each year since. The Wildcats will have a lot to replace with his leadership being gone next year, but as a Husker fan I'm excited for Thorson to be done throwing the ball against the Huskers!
BAD- The players' execution and staff's coaching during the last two drives of regulation (Nebraska's offensive series and Northwestern's final drive). Starting with the Huskers, a simple first down was needed to end this game. Nebraska took over in plus field position at the Northwestern 47 with 2:21 left on the clock. After three horribly conservative run plays gaining 3 yards and taking of just 16 seconds, the Huskers were forced to punt. Nebraska had been running the ball so well all game long, but went absolutely no where on the three rushes that mattered most. They were very simple plays to read, down blocks for the line and a hand off to Ozigbo allowed Northwestern's stout defense penetrate the line of scrimmage and quickly blow up the plays. I think Adrian's rushing ability should be utilized in a game-breaking situation like that, so I was quite upset with the play-calling. Now onto the 99-yard drive by the Wildcats, you just can't let that happen. Northwestern took over with just under 2 minutes left at their own 1-yard line thanks to an incredible punt by Isaac Armstrong. It doesn't mean much, but this is about the time when ESPN's game predictor had Nebraska with more than a 98% chance to win the game. Clayton Thorson had other ideas however. After yet another dumb penalty by the defense, the Wildcats were quickly out of the hole and on the move. The Huskers finished the game with a season-best 9 penalties!! Northwestern finished with just 1. Anyways, as the drive progressed and the Wildcats started moving the ball, it was clear the defense did not know what to do. After a 32-yard pass to Flynn Nagel, Northwestern had the ball at the Nebraska 32 with 20 seconds left. This is a crucial point in the drive because the Wildcats immediately ran to the line and threw the ball to Tight End Bennett Skowronek for a 27-yard gain down to the Huskers' 5. The Blackshirts were caught off-guard by the tempo (which Northwestern had done a few times throughout the game) and were not set on defense. After Nagel's 32-yard catch, I really think Coach Frost should've taken a time out to slow down the drive and settle his defense. Nebraska finished regulation with two timeouts left and I think a pause there would've been very helpful. It wouldn't have saved Northwestern any time either because Nagel had gone out of bounds after his catch. This is a bang-bang scenario and tough to manage, but Frost needs to watch for that, especially with a defense that has struggled this much all season. Obviously there's a lot of fault to the players when you give up a 99-yard drive in the final 2 minutes, but a timeout to settle this team could've made for a different ending in my opinion. It wasn't just the players who lost this game for Nebraska.
Nebraska played well, but continue to shoot themselves in the foot too many times to end up with a victory. Minnesota hung around with Ohio State until the end in the Horseshoe last week, so you never know what they'll bring to Lincoln this week. I'm anxious to see how the Huskers respond after knowing they definitely should've had that game.
Now for some other news around College Football from Week 7:
- There were 7 different top 25 teams to lose on Saturday (some to other ranked teams), but a handful of other top teams were nearly knocked off as well. The chaos is just beginning folks.
- LSU and Michigan State are absolutely the worst teams to make predictions on in my humbled opinion. The moment I put my faith in them, they lay an egg. The moment I feel like they won't show up, they knock off top 10 teams.
- Penn State's season has been blown up by Ohio State and Michigan State for the second year in a row. The Nittany Lions seemed to have lost their edge since the 4th quarter of the Ohio State game.
- Michigan looks very tough. They have a lot of potential to be challenging the Buckeyes for the BIG 10 East crown later this season.
- The SEC East is completely up for grabs after Georgia's loss. Florida almost fell to their trap game with some very heated competition from the Commodores and Kentucky is looking to bounce back after their BYE week. The fight for the right to lose to Bama should be a good one.
- Iowa State, always impressive with their upsets. West Virginia, you let me down again.
- Don't sleep on Oregon in the Pac-12. Probably won't make the playoffs, but they're in the driver seat for the North Title.
- UCF narrowly escapes Memphis with a win to keep their win-streak alive. Great game but close call.
Thank you all for reading my reflections post! I hope you're all having a fantastic week and are gearing up for Week 8! Predictions will be up on Saturday morning, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Saturday, October 13, 2018
Week 7 Predictions
Week 7 in College Football is upon us and as we trudge through October, the stakes are getting higher each week. There are still a lot of one-loss teams in the Hunt for the playoffs, while the undefeated look to remain that way as conferences tighten up. This post will have all of my predictions on the interesting games of the week. There are a few potential upsets and some juicy, top 25 match-ups. I hope you all have as much fun watching football this weekend as I will, enjoy the predictions!
Week 6 Prediction Results: 8-4
Overall Prediction Results: 33-33
#14 Florida at Vanderbilt
The Gators are coming off of a major upset against LSU at home and have a big SEC East showdown with rival Georgia in 2 weeks. Headed into a BYE week, this is the perfect trap game for the Commodores to pull off a major upset. Vandy is a stingy team with a talented, experienced QB. They've struggled to keep up with teams since the Notre Dame loss, but this team is more than capable of an upset. After the Kentucky loss, Florida was more or less written off from Playoff and SEC contention. They've risen from the dead with big wins at Mississippi State and home against LSU in the past two weeks. The Gators offense hasn't been anything extraordinary this season, but Feleipe Franks has managed his game well, throwing for 1,122 yards with 13 TDs compared to just 4 picks so far this year. The true strength of the Gators is with their defense. They give up only 14.8 points per game and are second in the nation with a +11 turnover margin. This defense flies to the ball and puts a lot of pressure on opposing QBs with a variety of pressure packages. Dan Mullen should have this team ready to go, and I think they show up with a strong performance headed into their BYE week. The Gators haven't lost in Nashville since 1988, so there's some history on the line too. Might not be a flashy win, but Gators take care of business up in Nashville with a 30-14 victory. GATOR CHOMP!
#2 Georgia at #13 LSU
Staying with the SEC, there's a top 15 match-up taking place on the Bayou. LSU hosts the Bulldogs of Georgia as they look to bounce back from a road loss to the Gators. I tried to trust the Tigers, I thought they had proven their offense had taken a step forward under transfer QB Joe Burrow. I was wrong. Burrow completed less than 54% of his passes against the Gators and threw 2 interceptions, including the game clinching pick-6. Georgia's defense ranks 12th in takeaways (+6) and 6th in total defense, so I expect similar numbers from Burrow. The key to watch is LSU's defense against Jake Fromm and a dynamic Georgia offense. The Dawgs average just under 43 points per game and have an extremely balanced attack rushing for 245 on average and throwing for 240. They have so many weapons on their offense, including back-up QB Justin Fields. Fields has had opportunities to be used in this offense along with Fromm, and that QB-duo could cause headaches for a stout Tiger defense. Both QB's bring a change of pace, especially with Fields' rushing ability. Look for the use of both QBs in order to come out of Death Valley alive. Jake Fromm is still QB 1, but utilizing Fields on certain plays could really stretch out the LSU defense. Look for a steady dose of Elijah Holyfield too. I think the Dawgs keep rolling and take care of business on the road. Tough atmosphere, but Georgia wins 30-17.
#7 Washington at #17 Oregon
Out to the Pacific Northwest, the Pac-12 North division title is likely up for grabs between Oregon and Washington. Stanford is still in the mix, but after a beat down loss to Utah last week, the Cardinal have a lot to fix before they roll through the rest of their conference schedule. As for the Ducks, their overtime loss to the Trees could more or less be erased with a victory at home against the Huskies. Senior Justin Herbert is arguably the top QB for next year's draft, and he'll be faced with his toughest challenge yet. The Huskies give up only 13.7 points per game and just over 300 yards on average. They rank 12th in total defense in the nation and will be looking to slow down the speedy Oregon attack. The Ducks average more than 500 yards on offense per game, so it's a bit of a "speeding car vs. a brick wall" type of scenario in this match-up. Oregon is always tough at home and probably should've had the upset against the Cardinal earlier this season. This is a very difficult prediction to make because Oregon has showed the upset potential, and Autzen Stadium is never a good place for top ranked teams to play. The Ducks are also coming off of a BYE week, giving them extra time to prepare. The Huskies need this win to stay in the hunt for the CFB Playoffs, and I picked them to win the North this year. This one will be a really great game to watch, but I've got the Huskies edging out the Ducks. Their experience will pay dividends in this crucial road game, and with a nearly 4 difference on time of possession, I think that could make the difference. Last time Browning was in Eugene, he gave the Ducks the famous "point" as the Huskies put up 70 on them. Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin show why they are still one of the best duo's in CFB and Washington fights off the Ducks for a 27-25 victory.
Duke at Georgia Tech
The Blue Devils have disappeared since their loss to the Hokies after starting off the season 4-0, but they now travel to Atlanta to take on the Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech. As always, Paul Johnson and the Yellow Jackets are going to run the triple option and run it well. They lead the nation with 373 yards per game on the ground and dominate time of possession with more than 32 minutes. The Blue Devils are coming off a BYE week following their loss, so you know they'll be ready to play. They give up just 123 yards per game on the ground, so we'll see how they handle the triple option. The best strategy against a team like Georgia Tech is to keep the ball out of their hands. I expect Duke to try and establish a ground game of their own, and try to keep it out of the hands of Georgia Tech. This is a tough road game for the Blue Devils and I'm just not sure they have the offense to keep up with Georgia Tech's pace. I'm taking the Yellow Jackets in this one as they win 45-28. Duke fooled us early, but they're still a basketball school.
#15 Wisconsin at #12 Michigan
A top 15 match-up in the BIG 10 has huge conference implications and possibly even some playoff effects. The 1-loss Badgers take on their mammalian cousin, the 1-loss Wolverines. With early losses in the season, both of these teams have strong cases for CFB Playoff contention if they win out. Wisconsin has a bit of a cushion having already beaten Iowa, giving them a 2 game lead in the division with the tiebreaker, but Michigan could put a chink in that armor with a win tonight. The Wolverines are trying to keep pace with Ohio State as they move into the meat of their schedule. Michigan hosts Wisconsin this week, travel to rival Michigan State next week and then have a BYE before hosting Penn State. If they want any chance at winning the division and possibly making the playoffs, they can only afford 1 slip up (BIG 10 title contention in mind) at most during that stretch. This is an interesting match-up because it throws one of the nation's best rushing attacks against the nation's top defense. This will be a hard-nosed, grind-it-out game. Michigan's defense gives up just 230 yards per game, so Wisconsin will need to get creative in order to spring Johnathan Taylor. Honestly though, for the Badgers to win this game, Alex Hornibrook needs to have the game of his life. Wisconsin's O-line is one of the best in the business, hands down, but Michigan's pass rush is tops as well. They will put a lot of pressure on Hornibrook, who typically is not the most accurate QB to begin with. I'm not sure he's going to be enough in this one, but I really don't want to trust Harbaugh to get a "big win", because that probably won't work out. Ugh, I'll trust my gut I suppose. Michigan wins this one with big defensive plays 24-20.
#19 Colorado at USC
Battle for control of the Pac-12 South Division will take place as the Buffs take on the Trojans in the Colosseum. Utah still may have something to say about the South Division title later this year, but as of right now, USC and the Buffs have the inside track. Colorado is in the toughest part of their schedule as they follow their trip to LA with a trip to Seattle. However, focusing on this game first will be crucial, because USC's defense is hungry for an upset. They've played better in recent games, but the Buffs offense is one of the best in the nation. They rank 18th in total offense in the nation and average nearly 500 yards of offense. The Buff's passing attack is led by the QB-WR duo of Steven Montez and Laviska Shenault Jr. Montez has thrown for over 1,400 yards with 11 TDs and 2 picks. He's also completing a national-best 75.2% of his passes. Shenault Jr. leads the nation with 141.6 yards per game and 6 TDs receiving. The Trojans will have their hands full with him as they give up an average of 218 yards per game through the air. I really like how well Colorado is playing this year and I think they'll take care of business this week. USC has some growing pains to go through with JT Daniels, and won't quite have enough to pull off the win today. They're favored at home, but I think Colorado will win this one. Buffaloes 35, Trojans 23.
#6 West Virginia at Iowa State
A blackout game in Ames is set as the #6 Mountaineers roll into town. Iowa State is coming off the heels of a big win on the road at Oklahoma State where 3rd-string QB, Brock Purdy, came in to throw for 318 yards, rush for 84 and account for 5 total TDs. Those Cyclone 3rd-stringers are absolute ballers I guess! Will Grier of West Virginia is a baller too, but he threw three redzone picks last week...against Kansas! To be fair, the Jayhawks actually rank 1st in the nation in turnover margin, but for a Heisman hopeful, that's not a performance you can afford to have too often. Iowa State is always upset-minded, but I think WVU will be ready to bounce back this week. The Cyclones do give up nearly 230 passing yards per game though, so Grier and company will have a lot of opportunities downfield. I'm sticking with the Mountaineers in this game, but they need to start stepping it up as their schedule gets tougher. WVU 39, ISU 20.
Nebraska at Northwestern
The Huskers travel to Northwestern to take on the rival Wildcats in the Battle of the NUs. This is always one of my favorite games of the year because these two teams are always fighting until the end. Last year's showdown went to Overtime and I expect another close one today. The Wildcats are coming off their best game of the year having knocked off Sparty on the road 29-19. Nebraska is trying to avoid their worst start in school history as Scott Frost is still looking for his first win. Once this team gets a victory, things will start to change very quickly in my opinion. Northwestern will have a heavy focus on the passing game as Clayton Thorson will be looking to torch the horrendous Blackshirt secondary. Thorson is completing nearly 63% of his passes and often plays quite well against the Huskers. The biggest issue is his ability to scramble out of the pocket. While not the best runner, Nebraska often makes him look like he was born for it. In the last 3 meetings, Thorson has 178 total rushing yards against the Huskers and 4 TDs on the ground. Nebraska will need to get pressure on him to ensure he doesn't make back-breaking conversions with his legs. David Blough hurt the Huskers on the ground earlier this season. For the Huskers, the offense flows through Adrian Martinez. Northwestern has a very experienced defense, especially with their linebackers and secondary. Martinez will be an important weapon in this game as Frost will look to spread the ball around yet again. I've really liked how the Nebraska offense has played in recent weeks, and I think this game will be a big step forward! Martinez leads Nebraska to their first victory of the season and the Huskers stay perfect in Evanston. Nebraska 26, Northwestern 24. GO BIG RED!
Now for some quick hit predictions for some other interesting games:
Iowa at Indiana- The Hawkeyes take their 4th ranked defense in the nation to Bloomington to square off against the Hoosiers. Indiana put up 20 on the first half against Ohio State last week, but Iowa's defense might not even allow that. Peyton Ramsey for Indiana will have some success early on, but I don't think it will last. Even though I hate to admit it, this Hawkeyes team plays some really good football. Nate Stanley has a big game and Iowa takes care of business on the road. Hawkeyes 30, Hoosiers 17.
Michigan State at #8 Penn State- Sticking with the BIG 10, we look to Happy Valley as the Nittany Lions host Sparty. It's hard to know which Michigan State team will show up, but you always need to be ready to play when they come to town. Sparty has won 4 out of the last 5 against Penn State. I don't think Trace McSorely could possibly lose two home games in a season, let alone a career, so I'm going with the Nittany Lions. McSorely could still be invited to NYC for the Heisman Ceremony. PSU 37, MSU 21.
#22 Texas A&M at South Carolina- Both teams are coming off of big wins last week as A&M knocked off my bandwagon team, the Kentucky Wildcats in Overtime and South Carolina beat Missouri on a last second field goal (I'm perfectly okay with that one). Ranked teams on the road are never in a good spot, but I think A&M has what it takes. They'll get enough pressure on Jake Bentley in this game to make the difference. Kellen Mond could struggle a bit, but Trayveon Williams and the Aggie ground game will get the victory. Aggies beat the Gamecocks 38-33.
UCLA at Cal- The Bruins travel to Berkeley to take on the Golden Bears. Cal is coming off back to back losses to Oregon and Arizona while Chip Kelly and the Bruins are still looking for their first win. I said Cal was my dark horse for upsets in the Pac-12 this season, but that hasn't quite panned out yet. If they can keep the turnovers to a minimum today, they should get back on track. UCLA has to wait one more week for their victory. Golden Bears beat the Bruins 30-20.
Hawai'i at BYU- The Cougars stout defense has disappeared over the past two weeks as they've given up 35 points to Washington and 45 points to Utah State. Tanner Mangum has been under constant pressure, and missing Squally Canada has really hurt their run game. The Rainbow Warriors are a very quiet 6-1 out in the middle of the Pacific, and Cole McDonald has 2,100 passing yards to go along with his 24:2 TD to INT ratio. Hawai'i and BYU are big rivals, so this should be a fun game to watch, but I like the Rainbow Warriors in this one. BYU's struggles continue at home and Hawai'i wins 40-28.
Thank you for reading my Gameday predictions and enjoy your Saturday of College Football! Be sure to let me know if you have any comments or questions and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
Week 6 Prediction Results: 8-4
Overall Prediction Results: 33-33
#14 Florida at Vanderbilt
The Gators are coming off of a major upset against LSU at home and have a big SEC East showdown with rival Georgia in 2 weeks. Headed into a BYE week, this is the perfect trap game for the Commodores to pull off a major upset. Vandy is a stingy team with a talented, experienced QB. They've struggled to keep up with teams since the Notre Dame loss, but this team is more than capable of an upset. After the Kentucky loss, Florida was more or less written off from Playoff and SEC contention. They've risen from the dead with big wins at Mississippi State and home against LSU in the past two weeks. The Gators offense hasn't been anything extraordinary this season, but Feleipe Franks has managed his game well, throwing for 1,122 yards with 13 TDs compared to just 4 picks so far this year. The true strength of the Gators is with their defense. They give up only 14.8 points per game and are second in the nation with a +11 turnover margin. This defense flies to the ball and puts a lot of pressure on opposing QBs with a variety of pressure packages. Dan Mullen should have this team ready to go, and I think they show up with a strong performance headed into their BYE week. The Gators haven't lost in Nashville since 1988, so there's some history on the line too. Might not be a flashy win, but Gators take care of business up in Nashville with a 30-14 victory. GATOR CHOMP!
#2 Georgia at #13 LSU
Staying with the SEC, there's a top 15 match-up taking place on the Bayou. LSU hosts the Bulldogs of Georgia as they look to bounce back from a road loss to the Gators. I tried to trust the Tigers, I thought they had proven their offense had taken a step forward under transfer QB Joe Burrow. I was wrong. Burrow completed less than 54% of his passes against the Gators and threw 2 interceptions, including the game clinching pick-6. Georgia's defense ranks 12th in takeaways (+6) and 6th in total defense, so I expect similar numbers from Burrow. The key to watch is LSU's defense against Jake Fromm and a dynamic Georgia offense. The Dawgs average just under 43 points per game and have an extremely balanced attack rushing for 245 on average and throwing for 240. They have so many weapons on their offense, including back-up QB Justin Fields. Fields has had opportunities to be used in this offense along with Fromm, and that QB-duo could cause headaches for a stout Tiger defense. Both QB's bring a change of pace, especially with Fields' rushing ability. Look for the use of both QBs in order to come out of Death Valley alive. Jake Fromm is still QB 1, but utilizing Fields on certain plays could really stretch out the LSU defense. Look for a steady dose of Elijah Holyfield too. I think the Dawgs keep rolling and take care of business on the road. Tough atmosphere, but Georgia wins 30-17.
#7 Washington at #17 Oregon
Out to the Pacific Northwest, the Pac-12 North division title is likely up for grabs between Oregon and Washington. Stanford is still in the mix, but after a beat down loss to Utah last week, the Cardinal have a lot to fix before they roll through the rest of their conference schedule. As for the Ducks, their overtime loss to the Trees could more or less be erased with a victory at home against the Huskies. Senior Justin Herbert is arguably the top QB for next year's draft, and he'll be faced with his toughest challenge yet. The Huskies give up only 13.7 points per game and just over 300 yards on average. They rank 12th in total defense in the nation and will be looking to slow down the speedy Oregon attack. The Ducks average more than 500 yards on offense per game, so it's a bit of a "speeding car vs. a brick wall" type of scenario in this match-up. Oregon is always tough at home and probably should've had the upset against the Cardinal earlier this season. This is a very difficult prediction to make because Oregon has showed the upset potential, and Autzen Stadium is never a good place for top ranked teams to play. The Ducks are also coming off of a BYE week, giving them extra time to prepare. The Huskies need this win to stay in the hunt for the CFB Playoffs, and I picked them to win the North this year. This one will be a really great game to watch, but I've got the Huskies edging out the Ducks. Their experience will pay dividends in this crucial road game, and with a nearly 4 difference on time of possession, I think that could make the difference. Last time Browning was in Eugene, he gave the Ducks the famous "point" as the Huskies put up 70 on them. Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin show why they are still one of the best duo's in CFB and Washington fights off the Ducks for a 27-25 victory.
Duke at Georgia Tech
The Blue Devils have disappeared since their loss to the Hokies after starting off the season 4-0, but they now travel to Atlanta to take on the Ramblin' Wreck of Georgia Tech. As always, Paul Johnson and the Yellow Jackets are going to run the triple option and run it well. They lead the nation with 373 yards per game on the ground and dominate time of possession with more than 32 minutes. The Blue Devils are coming off a BYE week following their loss, so you know they'll be ready to play. They give up just 123 yards per game on the ground, so we'll see how they handle the triple option. The best strategy against a team like Georgia Tech is to keep the ball out of their hands. I expect Duke to try and establish a ground game of their own, and try to keep it out of the hands of Georgia Tech. This is a tough road game for the Blue Devils and I'm just not sure they have the offense to keep up with Georgia Tech's pace. I'm taking the Yellow Jackets in this one as they win 45-28. Duke fooled us early, but they're still a basketball school.
#15 Wisconsin at #12 Michigan
A top 15 match-up in the BIG 10 has huge conference implications and possibly even some playoff effects. The 1-loss Badgers take on their mammalian cousin, the 1-loss Wolverines. With early losses in the season, both of these teams have strong cases for CFB Playoff contention if they win out. Wisconsin has a bit of a cushion having already beaten Iowa, giving them a 2 game lead in the division with the tiebreaker, but Michigan could put a chink in that armor with a win tonight. The Wolverines are trying to keep pace with Ohio State as they move into the meat of their schedule. Michigan hosts Wisconsin this week, travel to rival Michigan State next week and then have a BYE before hosting Penn State. If they want any chance at winning the division and possibly making the playoffs, they can only afford 1 slip up (BIG 10 title contention in mind) at most during that stretch. This is an interesting match-up because it throws one of the nation's best rushing attacks against the nation's top defense. This will be a hard-nosed, grind-it-out game. Michigan's defense gives up just 230 yards per game, so Wisconsin will need to get creative in order to spring Johnathan Taylor. Honestly though, for the Badgers to win this game, Alex Hornibrook needs to have the game of his life. Wisconsin's O-line is one of the best in the business, hands down, but Michigan's pass rush is tops as well. They will put a lot of pressure on Hornibrook, who typically is not the most accurate QB to begin with. I'm not sure he's going to be enough in this one, but I really don't want to trust Harbaugh to get a "big win", because that probably won't work out. Ugh, I'll trust my gut I suppose. Michigan wins this one with big defensive plays 24-20.
#19 Colorado at USC
Battle for control of the Pac-12 South Division will take place as the Buffs take on the Trojans in the Colosseum. Utah still may have something to say about the South Division title later this year, but as of right now, USC and the Buffs have the inside track. Colorado is in the toughest part of their schedule as they follow their trip to LA with a trip to Seattle. However, focusing on this game first will be crucial, because USC's defense is hungry for an upset. They've played better in recent games, but the Buffs offense is one of the best in the nation. They rank 18th in total offense in the nation and average nearly 500 yards of offense. The Buff's passing attack is led by the QB-WR duo of Steven Montez and Laviska Shenault Jr. Montez has thrown for over 1,400 yards with 11 TDs and 2 picks. He's also completing a national-best 75.2% of his passes. Shenault Jr. leads the nation with 141.6 yards per game and 6 TDs receiving. The Trojans will have their hands full with him as they give up an average of 218 yards per game through the air. I really like how well Colorado is playing this year and I think they'll take care of business this week. USC has some growing pains to go through with JT Daniels, and won't quite have enough to pull off the win today. They're favored at home, but I think Colorado will win this one. Buffaloes 35, Trojans 23.
#6 West Virginia at Iowa State
A blackout game in Ames is set as the #6 Mountaineers roll into town. Iowa State is coming off the heels of a big win on the road at Oklahoma State where 3rd-string QB, Brock Purdy, came in to throw for 318 yards, rush for 84 and account for 5 total TDs. Those Cyclone 3rd-stringers are absolute ballers I guess! Will Grier of West Virginia is a baller too, but he threw three redzone picks last week...against Kansas! To be fair, the Jayhawks actually rank 1st in the nation in turnover margin, but for a Heisman hopeful, that's not a performance you can afford to have too often. Iowa State is always upset-minded, but I think WVU will be ready to bounce back this week. The Cyclones do give up nearly 230 passing yards per game though, so Grier and company will have a lot of opportunities downfield. I'm sticking with the Mountaineers in this game, but they need to start stepping it up as their schedule gets tougher. WVU 39, ISU 20.
Nebraska at Northwestern
The Huskers travel to Northwestern to take on the rival Wildcats in the Battle of the NUs. This is always one of my favorite games of the year because these two teams are always fighting until the end. Last year's showdown went to Overtime and I expect another close one today. The Wildcats are coming off their best game of the year having knocked off Sparty on the road 29-19. Nebraska is trying to avoid their worst start in school history as Scott Frost is still looking for his first win. Once this team gets a victory, things will start to change very quickly in my opinion. Northwestern will have a heavy focus on the passing game as Clayton Thorson will be looking to torch the horrendous Blackshirt secondary. Thorson is completing nearly 63% of his passes and often plays quite well against the Huskers. The biggest issue is his ability to scramble out of the pocket. While not the best runner, Nebraska often makes him look like he was born for it. In the last 3 meetings, Thorson has 178 total rushing yards against the Huskers and 4 TDs on the ground. Nebraska will need to get pressure on him to ensure he doesn't make back-breaking conversions with his legs. David Blough hurt the Huskers on the ground earlier this season. For the Huskers, the offense flows through Adrian Martinez. Northwestern has a very experienced defense, especially with their linebackers and secondary. Martinez will be an important weapon in this game as Frost will look to spread the ball around yet again. I've really liked how the Nebraska offense has played in recent weeks, and I think this game will be a big step forward! Martinez leads Nebraska to their first victory of the season and the Huskers stay perfect in Evanston. Nebraska 26, Northwestern 24. GO BIG RED!
Now for some quick hit predictions for some other interesting games:
Iowa at Indiana- The Hawkeyes take their 4th ranked defense in the nation to Bloomington to square off against the Hoosiers. Indiana put up 20 on the first half against Ohio State last week, but Iowa's defense might not even allow that. Peyton Ramsey for Indiana will have some success early on, but I don't think it will last. Even though I hate to admit it, this Hawkeyes team plays some really good football. Nate Stanley has a big game and Iowa takes care of business on the road. Hawkeyes 30, Hoosiers 17.
Michigan State at #8 Penn State- Sticking with the BIG 10, we look to Happy Valley as the Nittany Lions host Sparty. It's hard to know which Michigan State team will show up, but you always need to be ready to play when they come to town. Sparty has won 4 out of the last 5 against Penn State. I don't think Trace McSorely could possibly lose two home games in a season, let alone a career, so I'm going with the Nittany Lions. McSorely could still be invited to NYC for the Heisman Ceremony. PSU 37, MSU 21.
#22 Texas A&M at South Carolina- Both teams are coming off of big wins last week as A&M knocked off my bandwagon team, the Kentucky Wildcats in Overtime and South Carolina beat Missouri on a last second field goal (I'm perfectly okay with that one). Ranked teams on the road are never in a good spot, but I think A&M has what it takes. They'll get enough pressure on Jake Bentley in this game to make the difference. Kellen Mond could struggle a bit, but Trayveon Williams and the Aggie ground game will get the victory. Aggies beat the Gamecocks 38-33.
UCLA at Cal- The Bruins travel to Berkeley to take on the Golden Bears. Cal is coming off back to back losses to Oregon and Arizona while Chip Kelly and the Bruins are still looking for their first win. I said Cal was my dark horse for upsets in the Pac-12 this season, but that hasn't quite panned out yet. If they can keep the turnovers to a minimum today, they should get back on track. UCLA has to wait one more week for their victory. Golden Bears beat the Bruins 30-20.
Hawai'i at BYU- The Cougars stout defense has disappeared over the past two weeks as they've given up 35 points to Washington and 45 points to Utah State. Tanner Mangum has been under constant pressure, and missing Squally Canada has really hurt their run game. The Rainbow Warriors are a very quiet 6-1 out in the middle of the Pacific, and Cole McDonald has 2,100 passing yards to go along with his 24:2 TD to INT ratio. Hawai'i and BYU are big rivals, so this should be a fun game to watch, but I like the Rainbow Warriors in this one. BYU's struggles continue at home and Hawai'i wins 40-28.
Thank you for reading my Gameday predictions and enjoy your Saturday of College Football! Be sure to let me know if you have any comments or questions and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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