Welcome back football friends! After a long and conference shuffling-filled summer we have reached Week 0. College Football is back and I could not be more excited to kick things off with my 2024 Season Preview post. I am adopting an idea I heard on the 'Until Saturday' Podcast from the Athletic. They had an episode full of "oddly specific" predictions for the upcoming season, and I thought that would be a fun way for me to preview 2024. So this post will give my thoughts on the upcoming College Football Season through the lens of some oddly specific predictions. I'll cover all the conferences in this post along with some Playoff predictions. Later this week I'll have a full preview of the Huskers with some oddly specific predictions along with game predictions for Week 0 this Saturday, enjoy!
Oddly Specific Sun Belt Predictions
1. Texas State will win 10 games this season and be in the mix for the G5 Playoff Bid.
The Bobcats were the best offense in the conference last season and 13th in the nation, averaging 36.7 points per game. Now add in Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year, JMU Transfer Jordan McCloud at QB to the mix, along with a new Defensive Coordinator and this team is primed for a BIG run in 2024. Early October has their two biggest tests with a road trip to Troy and home against Arkansas State, but apart from those they should be favored in most every game on their calendar. They are my Sun Belt Champion.
2. Georgia Southern does not make a bowl game this season.
Clay Helton has been hot with the Eagles in the early parts of his two seasons with Georgia Southern, but has trouble keeping things on track in the back half of the year. After starting 5-3 with a win against my beloved Huskers in 2022, they went 1-4 to finish the season. Last year, a promising 6-2 start turned into a 6-7 finish. A new OC could help things, but with so many offensive weapons to replace and a difficult schedule, I don't think the Eagles are going .500 or higher this season.
3. Former Husker OC leads my favorite Sunbelt Team (Coastal Carolina) to a 10 win season, flirting with Conference Championship hopes.
The Chants finished 8-5 with a bowl victory over San Jose State. Star QB Grayson McCall is gone, but Ethan Vasko stepped in well last season after McCall's injury, and returns a lot of production on offense. The Chanticleers have a favorable schedule and will beat Virginia in non-conference play to start 4-0.
4. Appalachian State slips late in the season and misses the Conference Title Game.
The Mountaineers have been to 4 out of 6 Sun Belt Championship Games, but not this year. This team will certainly be toward the top of the conference standings and improve upon last year's 9-4 campaign, but a tough schedule late will keep them out of the conference championship game for just the 3rd time in history.
5. Troy does not go bowling after back-to-back conference championships.
The Trojans head man is now at Tulane and with a large roster overhaul, this team has a steep learning curve to be competitive in conferences standings this season. South Alabama and Arkansas State are looking to improve and back-to-back road games against both of those opponents following a game against the favored Texas State Bobcats makes for a very difficult 3-game slate in October.
Oddly Specific CUSA Predictions
1. Pitbull performs a halftime show at his new stadium for FIU.
Musical icon Pitbull has bought the naming rights to FIU's stadium and the Panther's have quickly become a popular topic among CFB. The Panthers offense hopes to take a step forward under second-year QB Keyone Jenkins, and their defense should look to improve with a veteran secondary. However, nothing will quite get the crowd going down in the Miami area like a Pitbull concert at halftime. There's no way you name a stadium after yourself and not perform there during the season.
2. Liberty loses on the road at Appalachian State.
The Flames are in the spotlight after a 12-0 season and New Year's Six bowl bid a year ago, but after getting throttled by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, many have wondered if they should've been there. With another season primed with an extremely weak schedule, there's a good chance they could go 12-0 again. However, I think that chance will be dashed on September 28th on the road at Appalachian State. While the Mountaineers are rebuilding a bit, Boone, North Carolina is not an easy place to get a win at. Flames lose on the road but dominate through the rest of their schedule to win C-USA again.
3. Western Kentucky struggles on defense to stay at the C-USA #2 spot.
The Hilltoppers have won 8 games in 4 of the last 5 seasons, averaging no fewer than 30.5 points per game during those 4 winning seasons (2023 scoring average). So, the offensive firepower is there and can still be tapped into with Texas State QB transfer T.J. Finley running the offense now. However, the 28.7 points per game on defense given last season proved to be a tricky hurdle to overcome. I think the Hilltoppers will be stuck above that 25 points per game given up mark in 2024 which will keep another C-USA crown out of reach.
4. Rich Rodriguez matches his 9-win season with Jacksonville State.
The Gamecocks went 9-4 last season in their FBS debut and I think the 9-win mark is certainly accomplishable again. A few spots on offense to replace, but with his experience I think Rich Rod will do a solid job getting this team ready to play. I think they'll lose early another fighting chicken (Coastal Carolina) and the angry red birds (Louisville) to start the season, but should settle in nicely once they hit conference play.
Oddly Specific MAC Predictions
1. The MAC stays in the middle of the G5, sending 6 teams bowling for the 3rd year in a row.
The MAC is full of teams looking to rebuild in 2024. Apart from Western Michigan's Magical run under P.J. Fleck, the conference hasn't been close to sniffing a New Year's Six and isn't likely to fight for a playoff bid this season. They've sent at exactly 6 teams (half the conference) bowling each of the last two seasons, and are primed to do it again in 2024. Mid in geography, Mid on paper, but those MACtion games late in the year are always fun to watch.
2. Miami (OH) is the team to beat.
After winning the crown last year, the defensively dominant Redhawks have a target on their back as they look to double up in 2024. Toledo, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green are all dangerous contenders, and they're all on the schedule for Miami (OH). With 13 returning starters, they should have an inside track to Detroit.
3. Western Michigan goes bowling with 8 wins in year 2 of Lance Taylor.
The Broncos finished 4-8 last season, but picked up big wins against in-state rivals Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan. They don't play Toledo or Miami (OH) and could be contending for a spot in Detroit if they hang tough in November.
Oddly Specific Mountain West Predictions
1. Wyoming, Fresno State and UNLV battle for the #2 spot in the Mountain West.
Boise State is the heavy favorite to win the conference and be possibly be in consideration for a Playoff Bid, but who will challenge them in the Mountain West? UNLV was a surprise contender last year with 9 wins and playing in the conference championship for the first time. The Bulldogs faulted late in the year after an 8-1 start, and the Cowboys had a 9 win season of their own. Air Force and San Jose State were in the mix last season, but will likely step back a bit due to roster turnover and coaching changes respectively. I predict a 3-way tie in conference records between Wyoming, Fresno state and UNLV. UNLV and Fresno State play, plus the Rebels have Boise State on their schedule. Wyoming only has Boise out of the 4 and Fresno State only has UNLV. The top of the Mountain is often clustered out West.
2. Hawaii and Colorado State go bowling.
Both programs were just 1 win away from bowl eligibility a year ago, and combined for 5 one-score losses on the season. Hawaii actually prevented the Rams from going to the postseason with a 27-24 last second victory to end the year, but both squads should show big improvement to 6 or 7 wins in 2024.
3. Oregon State and Washington State join the conference for 2025.
With the PAC-12 dissolved into the 2-PAC, Wazzu and Oregon State were left with nothing but scraps. The Mountain West gave them shelter as they adopted them into their scheduling. I know they're looking for bigger deals, but this is the best fit for those teams with the current state of college football and I think the draw of stability and shared revenue brings them to the decision to join fully for next year.
Oddly Specific American Conference Predictions
1. Defense wins championships. Highest ranked total defense among top 4 teams wins the conference.
The top 4 teams in the American Conference all have a good argument for the crown, primarily due to their dynamic offenses. Memphis is the heavy favorite with College Football Playoff hopes, Tulane has been to back-to-back title games, UTSA has lost just 4 conference games in the last 4 seasons and South Florida is riding a lot of momentum after a big turnaround season in 2023 capped off by a 45-0 beat down in the Boca Raton Bowl over Syracuse. However, only Tulane ranked in the top 25 in scoring defense (24th) last season, but they only return 5 starters. Whichever of these 4 teams can move their total defense rank the highest, wins the conference.
2. The American Conference wins 2 games in non-conference play against Power 4 Schools.
As mentioned previously, there are some high-powered offensive attacks in this conference. Many of these schools have a P4 opponent in their non-conference schedule, and could come away with more than a nice paycheck from those bigger schools. A few games to keep your eye on are Memphis @ FSU on 9/14, South Florida home against Miami on 9/21, Tulane at home against Kansas State on 9/7 and FAU @ Michigan State opening weekend on 8/31. Dangerous games for those P4 teams.
3. The American Conference will have the highest points per game average among G5 Teams.
This conference is loaded with a lot of high-powered offenses. Combining that with multiple teams building new momentum under new coaching staffs, there will be a lot of points in the American this year. Last season as a conference, they averaged 27.4 points per game, just behind the MAC at 28.4 points per game. Those were the top two scoring conferences for the Group of 5, and I think the American overtakes the MAC and owns the G5 scoring crown for 2024.
Oddly Specific ACC Predictions
1. The ACC brings 2 teams to the College Football Playoffs, and one of them is SMU.
While this conference is seen as a weaker member of the Power 4, they are out to prove something after Florida State was left out of last year's playoffs. The conference is deeper than you may think after first glance, and with the expanded playoffs at 12 teams, there are plenty of teams that could take an at large bid after the champion. My darkHORSE team in this mix is the Mustangs from SMU. They are primed for a big opening season in the ACC with a favorable schedule and dynamic offense. Back-to-back games against Florida State and Louisville are the true test for this squad's playoff chances, but they host FSU in Dallas the week before the Seminoles play Clemson and could be looking ahead. Louisville is to follow, but they will be coming off a tough road game at Notre Dame. The back half of their schedule is very manageable for an offense that returns 8 starters and ranked 8th in the nation with 38.7 points per game. Watch out for the Pony Express to get an at large bid either as the 3rd best ACC team in waiting or putting up a tough fight in the championship game.
2. Clemson, Louisville and Miami all lose at least 3 games.
All three of these teams are looking for strong seasons after various storylines this offseason. Clemson and Miami are looking to get back into the spotlight after disappointing 2023 campaigns while the Cardinals are looking to show their 10-win season and ACC runner-up status wasn't a one off. However, despite their motives, a rugged schedule will dash playoff hopes for all these schools. The two game opener of Georgia and Appalachian State is headache enough, but Clemson also has Louisville on the schedule along with road games to Florida State and Virginia Tech. Miami opens with a road trip to the Swamp but has a sneaky road game to South Florida before hosting VT. Back to back games against the Cardinals and FSU don't make it easy either. Lastly, the Cardinals have a 7-week stretch of games that include road trips to Notre Dame, Boston College and Clemson plus a couple of home stands against SMU and Miami. Minimum 3 losses for each squad in 2024.
3. Virginia Tech wins 10 games, but need ACC Championship to get Playoff Bid.
The Hokies are primed for a big year after winning 5 of their last 7 games in 2023. They return a conference best 19 starters, including all 11 on offense. They have a very favorable schedule, avoiding the Seminoles, Cardinals and Mustangs. Plus they host Clemson and get Miami on the road but immediately after the Hurricanes visit the sneaky USF Bulls. However, without an ACC crown, the Hokies are not getting into the 12-team playoff.
4. Cal and Stanford combine for 3 or fewer wins against OG ACC teams.
As much as I would love to see the former PAC-12 members succeed in their games out on the Atlantic Coast, I don't see it happening this year. The travel alone is going to be brutal as the Golden Bears travel to Auburn, FSU, Pitt, Wake Forest and SMU while the Cardinal are on the road to Syracuse, Clemson (back-to-back), Notre Dame and NC State. Now throw in the gameplay adjustments and lack of offensive firepower for both of these teams. I do think they will be taking a step forward with their respective coaches, but conference wins won't come easy in year one.
5. ACC has the lowest points per game average among Power 4 schools.
The ACC averaged 27.6 points per game in 2023, good for 3rd place among the Power 4 and more than 3 points higher than the BIG 10's 24.4 points per game (thanks Iowa). However, with the new expanded conferences, I think the ACC drops a notch in terms of scoring prowess. SMU will help the case, but Florida State was the only ACC school in the top 20 in points per game last season, and I don't think they will be scoring at the same rate this year. The rest of the conference will be in the upper 20s for points per game and that average will drop for the conference.
Oddly Specific Big XII Predictions
1. This is going to be the most entertaining conference to watch in 2024.
The Big XII is stacked with teams that could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games. With 4 newcomers from the PAC-12, plus the departure of Texas and Oklahoma, there is a pool of 7 teams I could see with a chance to win the conference. There are great games on slates across the country in every conference, but no other conference schedule has as many toss up games as the Big XII does. I am anxious to see what happens in this conference race.
2. QB Injuries plague the conference.
We already know the injury struggles Cam Rising at Utah and Jalon Daniels at Kansas have had, and unfortunately that injury bug could spread around some of the other gunslingers in this conference. KJ Jefferson (now at UCF) has missed time for injuries, and if the offensive line doesn't improve from the portal pickups, Shedeur will be a regular in the training room this season. Texas Tech is also trying to use the portal to beef up their Oline as just 1 starter returns, and many of these offenses like to run their QBs. I truly hope I'm wrong on this one, but I think at least 3 starting QBs miss 3 games or more from this conference.
3. Shedeur and Deion have one more year in Boulder.
I think Colorado should show some improvement from Deion's debut, but I think there's another year to cook things in the Prime Time regime. A bowl game is certainly within reach, but not without big improvement in the trenches. Regardless of their on field success in 2024, there is too much money to make in 2025 for them to move on. A solid statistical season, some Heisman hype and with a majority of the NFL teams breaking in new QBs for the next two seasons, this is a perfect opportunity for Shedeur to make more money in college and allow Deion to build more of his coaching resume.
4. Tetairoa McMillan is a Biletnikoff Finalist and Arizona finishes the year tied for 3rd in the conference.
The dynamic duo of Noah Fafita and Tetairoa McMillan make up one of the best QB/WR pairs in the nation. With a few more weapons out of the transfer portal, and former Syracuse HC Dino Babers calling the plays, this offense has potential to again be a top 20 total offense in the country. As for McMillan, the 6'5, 210 lbs. Junior finished 5th in the nation with 1,402 yards and 10 TDs on 90 catches in 2023. I think he breaks 1,600 yards this year with 14 TDs. This will be one of my favorite teams to watch this season.
5. Watch out for bumps on the Country Roads.
West Virginia completely outperformed their predictions in 2023, but now teams are paying more attention to the Mountaineers. I have always liked this team and the style they play with, but when people know you're coming it's a lot more difficult to hide in the underdog kennel. They host Penn State to open the season and get KU, K-State and Iowa State all in Morgantown. All opponents they did not have on the 2023 schedule, and all have been notified of the dangers the Mountaineers can bring. WVU will go bowling and have a solid season, but they won't be pulling off any major upsets this season. The go 5-4 in conference play at best.
6. Farmageddon will decide who gets into the Big XII Championship, but not the Playoffs.
Unlike many College Football analysts and experts, I believe this conference is going to get multiple teams into the inaugural 12-team playoff, despite much clustering toward the top. Mike Gundy and the Pokes have a good shot at being the second team if they can avoid 3 losses, but even then it will be tough to rise in the ranks. Utah is my (and the overall) heavy favorite to win the Big XII and get a bid into the playoffs. I believe their conference championship opponent will be determined in the final week of the season with the annual rivalry game between Iowa State and Kansas State, Farmageddon. The Wildcats destroyed my bet on them by giving up 28 points in the second half to the Cyclones as a full blizzard dumped snow in Manhattan. This year's game in Ames should be another classic as both teams are strong number 2s behind Utah in the conference. The Wildcats avoid Utah in the regular season while the Cyclones travel to Salt Lake City a week before hosting K-State for the finale. If they manage the other pieces of their schedule, this game sends the winner to the Big XII Championship.
Oddly Specific SEC Predictions
1. The SEC brings 4 teams to the 12 team Playoff with 3 out of 7 at large bids.
There are plenty of rumors about SEC bias and the conference bringing potentially 5 teams into the playoffs, but 4 spots will be more than enough to prove their point. Georgia and Texas are the heavy favorites, but LSU, Bama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and even Missouri could all be in the mix. The depth of this conference will show come selection time, but a few teams need to be able to stand out in order to guarantee their playoff spot.
2. The SEC is the first conference to have a coach fired mid-season.
Take your pick from the hot seat, Billy Napier at Florida, Sam Pittman at Arkansas or Clark Lea at Vanderbilt. All of these coaches need to show big steps in the right direction this season, and likely need to show it sooner rather than later. With a few key games for both Arkansas and Florida early in the year, Napier and/or Pittman could be looking for a new job as early as October. I think this conference has the first mid-season coach firing in College Football.
3. Despite being the early favorite, Carson Beck is not invited to New York as a Heisman Finalist.
I have absolutely nothing against Carson Beck and do believe he's a very capable Quarterback. However, I think he will be overshadowed this year in the SEC. I'm sure he'll have a fantastic and stat filled season with a great offense and a variety of talented receivers to throw to, but Brock Bowers is gone along with a few other key targets like Ladd McConkey. They've hit the portal for some restocking, but with Jalen Milroe, Jaxon Dart and now Quinn Ewers added into the conference, there are better QBs in the race alongside him.
4. Ole Miss goes to the SEC Championship and Jaxson Dart is a Heisman Finalist.
This is the year for the Rebels. Coming off a school-best 11-wins and bringing 14 starters back and upgrading some positions on defense through the transfer portal sets this team up for a BIG 2024 campaign. They have a tough road trip to Baton Rouge and a late November one to Gainesville, but separate of that they get Georgia at home and avoid Alabama, Texas and Missouri. Oklahoma also comes to Oxford, but this sets up for a potential 11-win regular season behind star QB Jaxson Dart balling out for his senior season. The gunslinger averaged more than 250 yards passing for game with a 23:5 TD to INT ratio and 65.1% completion rating. With a high-powered offense stocked full of weapons, he's primed for a Hesiman-caliber season.
5. Oklahoma prevents Alabama or LSU from going to the playoffs.
The Sooners close out their 2024 campaign in their new conference with two traditional powerhouses by hosting Alabama and then taking the trip to Baton Rouge. They racked up 10 wins last season but need to replace a star in Dillon Gabriel at QB and their entire offensive line. They line up with one of the toughest schedules in the conference, but I think they play spoiler at the end of the year. Both the Tide and Tigers have easy games ahead of OU, but something tells me they pull an upset and that prevents one of the traditional powerhouses to be held out of the 12 team playoff.
Oddly Specific Big 10 Predictions
1. Oregon and Ohio State repeat for a Conference Championship Battle.
One of the best slated games for the 2024 season is October 12th when the Buckeyes visit Eugene for a duel with the Ducks. These two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the BIG 10, and I think we're going to get a repeat performance from them in Indianapolis to see who gets the coveted BYE week in the Playoffs. Both of these teams have tremendous talent returning but added even more to their rosters through the portal. Former Rebel Running Back, Quinshon Judkins, is primed for a big year with Ohio State and Dillon Gabriel will be the new QB for Dan Lanning's fast-paced Ducks. They Buckeyes also picked up star Safety, Caleb Downs, from Alabama and probably the biggest move was hiring ex-Duck Chip Kelley as their new OC. It will be fun watching these two teams play in October and we're going to want to see it again in December.
2. Iowa's Offense remains in triple digit ranks at the end of the year.
Stone-wall defense and an abysmal offense, that's the Iowa tradition. Unfortunately, as much as I hate the Hawkeyes, it works. They win games by doing nothing but waiting for opponents to hurt themselves. No need to mess with something if it isn't broken. A new coordinator is a good headline for Iowa faithful, but this offense won't be going very far up the rankings. Even with one of the easiest schedules, I say this team is in the triple digits when scoring offense and total offense ranks are settled at the end of the year. However, they'll still win at least 8 games. Just dumb.
3. Rutgers wins 8 games for the first time since 2014.
The Scarlet Knights are not a team to overlook with 12 returning starters including one of the best RBs you haven't paid attention to. Kyle Monangai covered over 1,200 yards on the ground last season averaging over 5 yards per carry and racking up 8 TDs. He'll be behind 4 returning starters on the Oline and will provide relief to a passing game that is looking to complete more than 50% this year. They avoid Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State since the divisions no longer exist and will be an upset minded team in 2024. The Schiano-men are winning at least 8 games.
4. The Bruins miss a flight.
UCLA has an absolutely bonkers travel schedule in 2024 with trips to Honolulu, Baton Rouge, Happy Valley, Piscataway, Lincoln and Seattle. That is more than 22,000 miles of travel for this football team. There's no way a flight isn't being missed by the Bruins this season.
5. Only 3 BIG 10 Teams make it to the Playoffs, Nittany Lions in over the Wolverines.
As mentioned above, I believe Ohio State and Oregon will be battling to see who takes a week off in the playoffs, while the other hosts a home game in round 1. A third team will find their way into the playoffs, and as most experts have noted, Penn State is the beneficiary. They avoid both Oregon and Michigan, while playing Ohio State at home. A favorable schedule sets them up for a 10 or 11 win season, solidifying their playoff spot as third best in the conference. While Michigan does retain a good amount of power, I believe they are losing at least 3 games if not 4 this season.
6. The non-conference P4 games are unkind to the BIG 10.
There are 15 P4 non-conference games across all the BIG 10 Teams' schedules. Kansas, Alabama, LSU (twice) and Texas are all included in that list. Along with a few games that could go either way, I don't see the BIG 10 looking strong from their lower tier teams in these games. I think the BIG 10 as a conference goes under .500 and loses at least 8 of the 15 P4 non-conference games. It's not that the conference isn't talented, but these matchups are against teams with a lot of question marks, even my Huskers hosting Colorado. Apart from Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State, the conference is not terribly deep and it will show early in the season.
Thank you for reading my Oddly Specific 2024 Season Predictions! I will have Oddly Specific Husker Predictions along with Week 0 games on Saturday morning to start off our College Football season. With this being my 10th season covering college football, I decided to give a design upgrade to my blog. Here is my new logo for CFB KnowItAll. Thank you for your continued support by reading my posts and please share with other College Football Fans. GO BIG RED!
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Alex Fernando
