Hey everyone, I hope you're all having a very Merry Christmas and are enjoying all the College Football action. This post will have my picks for Saturday's games, as well as Monday's games. My pick on the Husker game will be on the bottom, and I will probably have my analysis of the Husker game up on Sunday. Happy Holidays & Go Big Red!
St. Petersburg Bowl
UConn (6-6) vs. Marshall (9-3)
The Huskies are just a few plays away from a very different record as they played in a lot of close games this year. They have a very tough defense and opposing offenses often find it hard to score points against them as UConn only gives up an average of 19.8 points per game. The big issue for the Huskies is the lack of a productive offense. Their defense has kept them in so many games, but the Huskies offense has failed to capitalize on the numerous opportunities to score points and win the game. It will be tough for them to score in this one as well since Marshall is only giving up 18.4 points per game on average. The level of competition between the two was different indeed, but Marshall's consistent offense makes it tough for opposing teams to have the ball long enough to score. I think that this will be more of a low scoring, defensive battle. Turnovers and TOP are key in this match-up, and I have the Thundering Heard winning 24-13.
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Miami (FL) (8-4) vs. Washington State (8-4)
This is a fantastic match-up and one game that I am really looking forward to watching. The Canes & the Cougars have two of the most prolific passing attacks in the nation, and are very difficult offenses to stop. Miami has had a very up and down season, but seemed to have gained some confidence since Al Golden was removed. Sophomore QB Brad Kaaya has been their bright spot this season passing for over 3000 yards and owning a 15:4 TD to INT ratio. The Canes need to get a new system in fast, because there is too much talent for Kaaya and crew not to at least compete for an ACC title. On the other side, Wazzu is starting to bring their name back into play for a PAC-12 North Title. The Cougars were just a blocked field-goal away from knocking off Stanford and claiming the North Title this year. Sophomore stud Luke Falk has thrown for over 4200 yards and owns a 36:8 TD to INT ratio. The top ranked passing attack of Wazzu is hard to stop for any team, but I think Miami will have some really though stretches in this game, especially after sending Safety Jamal Carter home for violating team rules less than 1 day after arriving for the bowl game. The weather could damper each team's passing attack, but the QB battle should be a fun one to watch in this game. I have the Cougars winning 35-24.
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Washington (6-6) vs. Southern Mississippi (9-4)
This game features the high-powered Golden Eagle offense against the sturdy Husky defense. So. Miss averages over 500 yards of offense and 40.6 points per game. The level of competition is drastically different between these two, but Southern Miss can still score a lot. Washington's true Freshman QB Jake Browning will be a very good player later in his career and maybe even help the Huskies compete for a PAC-12 Title. He's young, but he is very well rounded in the game and fights to the very end. If Washington can get him some weapons over the next couple years, he's going to be a deadly QB. I expect him to have a big game and the Husky defense should shut down Southern Miss fairly well. I expect a solid win for Washington 38-20.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Indiana (6-6) vs. Duke (7-5)
This is an interesting match-up since Duke has more or less fallen apart over the last few games. Indiana had a lot of close losses this season, but fought to win out their last two to become bowl eligible. QB Nate Sudfeld and RB Jordan Howard lead the Hoosier offense that is more than capable of scoring points, averaging 36.2 points per game. Duke's offense has struggled mightily this season, especially during the last half where they lost 4 of their last 5 averaging only 25 points per game over that span. Indiana has put themselves in place for a potential upset performance, but can never quite close the deal. I think that they will put this game away with Jordan Howard & Nate Sudfeld playing well. They will need a few stops from their defense, but I can see a lot of points in this one. Indiana 42, Duke 33.
Camping World Independence Bowl
Tulsa (6-6) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)
My key factor to victory in this game is Frank Beamer. There is no way that the Hokies will ever let Frank walk off the field losing his final game. VaTech has a lot of pride to play for in this game, and all of their close losses will be forgiven if they can end their rough season with a bowl win. They had a lot of injuries to key players through this season, but should get some key players back for this game. Tulsa's passing attack is something to watch out for as the Hokies struggled against the pass this year, but I honestly can't see anything than a Hokie victory. VaTech 35, Tulsa 23.
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Navy (10-2)
You all know how I feel about Navy QB Keenan Reynolds, and you can all probably guess who my pick is to win this game. I would like to once again say how bad I feel for the Midshipman since, just like New Mexico, they do not get to travel anywhere for their bowl game. These kids deserve a destination bowl more than anyone, especially after a 10 win season! Pitt has a good chance to challenge Navy in this game, but the key will be to get the ball to stud WR Tyler Boyd. Boyd has over 50 receptions more than the next leading receiver on the team and 6 Touchdowns. He is easily the Panthers' best athlete and needs to get the ball if Pitt wants to compete. Georgia Tech is the only other team they have played this season that runs an offense similar to Navy's. Although they won that game, Pitt still gave up 376 yards rushing. I guarantee that if Pitt gives any amount close to that to Keenan Reynolds, this game won't even be close. The advantage Pitt has is that Navy has trouble on defense, especially with a tough passing attack. this will be a good game, but there's just no way I can pick against my man Keenan Reynolds. He'll reclaim his NCAA record for TDs in a career that Kenneth Dixon broke earlier this week and the Midshipmen will win this one at home 40-28.
Quick Lane Bowl
Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Minnesota (5-7)
It has been a very emotional, up and down season for the Gophers, especially with Head Coach Jerry Kill having to step down mid-season due to health issues. Despite their 5-7 record, they made a bowl game and are looking to end their season on a good note. The Chippewas passing attack averages over 300 yards per game, and their looking to avenge their 1 point bowl loss to WKU from last year. I have to stick with the BIG 10 in this game, so I have the Gophers in a tough one. Minnesota 20, Central Michigan 13.
Foster Farms Bowl
Nebraska (5-7) vs. UCLA (8-4)
Probably not the ideal match-up for my CornHuskers, but a good one nonetheless. Obviously not the seasons that either of these teams were imagining. UCLA was looking to compete for a PAC-12 Title and possibly break into the top 4. The Huskers' schedule looked prime for a BIG 10 Title run, but lots of close games, new system struggles, and poor play from key players at the most inopportune times lead to a disappointing 5-7 record. The three big questions to ask in this game are:
1. Can the Huskers defense shut down Josh Rosen and that deadly air attack of the Bruins?
2. Which Tommy Armstrong will show up in the Golden Gate City?
3. Which UCLA team will show up?
The Blackshirts have improved by leaps and bounds since the early part of the season, especially in their last few games. They held Iowa without a third down conversion in their season finale. The big issue for the Huskers defense has been opponents' passing attacks. Nebraska has struggled all year against the pass, often forgetting about someone or just missing the ball when trying to make a play. Once again, it has been better towards the end of the season, but not nearly to the level it needs to be at if the Blackshirts want to stop Josh Rosen.
On the other side of the ball, Tommy needs to show up to this game. He needs to play lights out, all four quarters from kickoff to the final second. Obviously no team can win without a QB, but in an offensive system like Coach Riley/Langsdorf's, we clearly cannot even function without one. Nebraska does not have the reliable running game it was once known for to fall back on and keep them in the game. The team goes as Tommy goes, the offense is centered around him being able to make plays and get the ball to his receivers. Any QB would kill to have a receiving corps as deep and as experienced as Nebraska's, but they are completely useless if Tommy can't get them the ball. We've seen him when he is at his best (i.e. 4th Quarter Miami/1st Quarter Rutgers), but it seems like his worst always shows up at the wrong times (i.e. Iowa... the entire game). Tommy is a fantastic athlete and one heck of a QB if he works within the system. When he tries to go a "lone gunslinger", which is quite often, he locks in on one receiver, makes poor reads and very poor throws. To beat UCLA, Nebraska needs Tommy to play at his finest. I'm always optimistic, and I believe that Tommy really wants to prove himself after the Iowa game. He can't do it alone though, a strong running game will be key against UCLA. In UCLA's 4 losses, they gave up nearly 200 yards rushing, and over 300 in their blowout loss to Stanford. If the Huskers can establish a solid rushing attack against the Bruins, they can control the clock and keep the ball out of the hands of Josh Rosen.
Finally, the question of which UCLA team will show up. UCLA has been bi-polar at times throughout the year; In their victories, they have looked like a team that should be in the top four and could compete with anyone, In their losses, they have looked like they don't know what is going on or how to even compete. Freshman QB Josh Rosen has been incredible this season, but is still a freshman. If his team gets into a rut during the game, I'm not convinced that he has the maturity or the leadership to fire them back up and pull them out. When I watched the Arizona State game (their first loss) when momentum shifted, it seemed to just tank the UCLA squad and they could not do anything. If they come out like they did against Utah, and completely shut down the Huskers offense (which isn't always hard depending on which Tommy shows up), the Bruins can easily win this game. If they get into a rut, it could be tough for them to pull this one out. Momentum is a major factor in this game, underrated, but definitely a factor to keep your eye on.
You all know that I can/will never pick against my Huskers, so we are going to believe that the good Tommy Armstrong shows up and proves that he does want to be QB1 next year. If the Huskers defense can cause just a little pressure on Rosen, get a stop or two, they have a good chance. D-Line pressure is huge for both teams in this game. Whichever QB gets rattled and stays rattled will lose. Hopefully Riley & Langsdorf have added a little more creativity to their rushing attack so that I can't predict every run play before the snap. I've got my Huskers in another close one, 38-34. GO BIG RED!
I would also like to make a quick note about how Stanford do-it-all RB, Christian McCaffrey, was named the AP Player of the Year earlier this week and was very well deserving. He was the first non-Heisman winner to win this award since Ndamukong Suh back in 2009. In my opinion, based on the finalists of their respective years, both should have won the Heisman over the Bama running backs that only won it since Bama was winning and going to the National Championship/Semifinal games. Congrats Christian McCaffrey, very well deserved, now go BEAT IOWA!
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