I hope everyone is ready for some more football! We're lucky enough to have a big game to watch starting on Friday night, which makes for even more football over this weekend as we head into October. These are my big games to watch this weekend, and my keys to victory for each team. Enjoy!
#7 Stanford at #10 Washington
This is our Friday night match-up to watch, and we get to see two top 10 teams square off. I've been excited for this game since the season started because I think it has a big impact on the Playoff picture. Better yet, these two programs are in the same division, so this is a big game when looking for a PAC-12 champion. The Cardinal are coming off of a tough win against UCLA, and have lost a couple players this week due to injury. One of their best deep threats, Francis Owusu, will be out due to the concussion he suffered last week against the Bruins. In addition, Stanford's two starting corner backs, Quenton Meeks and Alijah Holder, will both be out as well. David Shaw's crew has always had good depth, but with Jake Browning already passing for over 900 yards and 14 TDs this season, the secondary took a big hit. Defense will be the name of the game up in Seattle tonight, and my big key to victory for either team is 3rd down. Stanford's offense hasn't been extremely explosive thus far in the season, but they are still completing just under 50% of their third down conversions. Washington's defense has been pretty stout throughout the year, only allowing teams to convert 33% of their third downs. This stat is going to be huge in this game, because if Stanford is able to control the clock, even if they don't score very much, they will keep the ball away from Jake Browning. Stanford's main offensive focus is still going to be getting the ball to Christian McCaffrey, and every team knows that. This means a loaded box and plenty of opportunities downfield for Senior QB Ryan Burns. Burns has made good throws when he needs to, but has yet to really open it up in a game. The Cardinal are only averaging 137 yards passing per game, which won't be enough to beat the Huskies. Look for them to spread the ball around, (I would recommend Michael Rector down the sidelines) in order to create space for McCaffrey.
For Washington, this is THE GAME! There are not too many chances to get the #7 ranked team on your home turf, and be able to gain a step on the division crown on them at the same time. They have the experience, returning 16 total starters from last season including 9 on offense and 2 All-Conference secondary players. Now is the time to make their statement if the Huskies want to compete for a PAC-12 Championship and maybe even a playoff run. They have yet to play much competition this year, and struggled against Arizona last week beating them 35-28 in an overtime game down in Tucson. I'm anxious to see if they can live up to hype for this game. Stanford's defense will pose a big threat to the Huskies dynamic offense. Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin will lead the way, and I expect a good game from this match-up. The Huskies are going to hang tough, but I still think McCaffrey makes the difference, and gashes Washington's defense late in the game, and the Cardinal come away with a 33-28 thriller.
#11 Tennessee at #25 Georgia
Another big stepping stone for the Vols if they want to win the SEC East Division. A road test between the hedges is never easy, but after last week, the Bulldogs have a lot of issues to fix. They gave up over 500 yards of offense to Ole Miss last week. Joshua Dobbs and company will look to match that as they look to go up 2-0 against their top competition in the East. The one bright spot for Georgia is that they only gave up 2/9 third down conversions last week. If they can keep that line again, Tennessee has trouble scoring early in the game, allowing Georgia to keep it close. Jacob Eason will have to play top notch if they want to come away with the upset, but I just can't see it. I'll allow Georgia to play the Vols a little tighter than they did with the Rebels, but Tennessee wins it 42-20.
#8 Wisconsin at #4 Michigan
A very big match-up in the BIG 10 takes place at the Big House. The Badgers continue their tough slate of games as they head to Ann Arbor to take on the Wolverines. Michigan has the dynamic offense, and Wisconsin has the stout defense. Michigan is only giving up an average of 13.8 points on defense, but they have yet to face a very solid offensive attack. Wisconsin's offensive attack isn't the most impressive, but it's consistent. The Badgers average 37 minutes per game for TOP, which means they have a good chance of keeping the ball away from the Wolverines offense. Alex Hornibrook will have a tough task walking into the Big House, so we'll see how he handles the noise. He played well against MSU last week, passing for 195 yards and 1 TD. I am excited to see how this match-up plays out, and would really enjoy to see a Wisconsin upset. Michigan will be tested in this game, and based on recent events I really don't want to pick against Wisconsin, but I'm going with the home team. I'm not counting out an upset, but I think Michigan gets a late turnover to finish out the game. Wolverines 44, Badgers 33.
Oklahoma at #21 TCU
After a crazy non-conference stint, the Big XII is up for grabs. My two favorites square off in Ft. Worth this weekend, with an interesting season in the balance. The Sonners have seemed to spiral out of control since their opening loss to the Cougars, and are coming off of a BYE week where they either pouted about their beat down at the hands of the Buckeyes, or re-ignited the fire that will get them the Big XII championship. Sadly, based off their play this season, I think the first scenario looms large, and with TCU coming off of a couple of big offensive performances, they could be on a roll that is tough to stop. I'm leaning towards the Horned Frogs in this game, not only because of their cool new helmets, but because of their offense. OU has had trouble against high-powered offenses so far this season, giving up an average of 401 yards per game. TCU is averaging 576 yards per game, so that does not bode well for Boomer Sooner. Oklahoma is also giving up over 31 points per game, with TCU averaging 42.8. I don't always buy into the numbers, and it's hard to imagine Oklahoma starting out 1-3, but I think the wheels have come off of this team. They'll make a bowl game, probably finish 8-4, but I'm sticking with the Horned Frogs in this one. Too much offense for the Sooners. 47-31 TCU wins it and gains a step in the Big XII.
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
You all may be wondering why I keep throwing Western Michigan games into my picks, but I do have a reason. They may not be extremely flashy, but they are a very solid team, and they do not make many mistakes. They have two wins over BIG 10 opponents so far this year, and Senior QB Zach Terrell has nearly 900 yards, ZERO interceptions and 9 TDs on the season (4 of which have gone to his favorite target: Corey Davis). The Broncos have a very balanced attack on offense, averaging 223 through the air and 245 on the ground. That kind of productivity has lead them to a lot of TOP, averaging over 34 minutes per game. I honestly think that they could go undefeated this season looking at the rest of their schedule (Yes, I know it's the MAC, but there are some sneaky teams) and they could sneak into a good looking bowl game. I'm sticking with the Broncos for a 38-21 win.
#3 Louisville at #5 Clemson
The big game of the week takes place in Death Valley up in South Carolina. The two dynamic offenses lead by Heisman caliber QBs square off under the lights in a fantastic top 5 match-up. Clemson has under-impressed so far this season, especially considering most of the competition they've played. Their last two games have been more on par for what we've expected to see from the Tigers, but this is the statement game. Dabo's crew will have to bring it on Saturday if they want to get into the playoff picture for the second year in a row. I have no doubt that points will be scored in this one, especially with Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson running wild. However, the big question is the defense of both teams. Louisville has really impressed me with their defensive power, especially last week when they held Florida State to 284 total yards. You can expect Deshaun Watson to bump that number up, but the Cardinals defense has played extremely fast and puts a lot of pressure on opposing QBs. Clemson struggled to score the first couple weeks in a tough game against Auburn, and then a puzzling scare against Troy, so I think Louisville has a pretty good shot at limiting them. On the Clemson side, their defense has been only a step off of last season. They're only giving up 11 points per game, and 218.5 total yards on average. They have good chance to slow down Lamar Jackson... for a drive, but I don't think anyone can keep this kid from moving the ball. I've bought into Lamar Jackson right now, and I think the Cardinals beat the Tigers at home 42-31.
Illinois at #15 Nebraska
Nebraska's first BIG 10 home game of the season comes against an Illini squad they would love to seek revenge on. Illinois came away with a 14-13 victory after the Husker offense failed to convert a first down to run out the clock. However, one year can make a very big difference, and that proves to be the case yet again. The Fighting Illini have a new Head Coach in Lovie Smith, who I think could cause some damage in the BIG 10 after a couple of years. The new system hasn't proven to work yet as Illinois comes to Lincoln with a 1-2 record, their lone victory coming over Murray State. I honestly don't think the Illini pose too much of a threat, but my one concern is Senior QB Wes Lunt. Lunt has played against the Blackshirts for a couple of years now, and is very calm in the pocket. He's a fairly consistent QB, completing 62% of his passes this season, with 6 TDs and only 1 INT. Wes's scrambling ability is what annoys me as well, because he's one of those tall, slow white QBs that Nebraska cannot tackle (I don't think the Huskers are racist, we just tend to have issues against the white guys). He doesn't scramble often, but when he gets out of the pocket, he still has very good vision and often gets the ball away. I think the Blackshirts need to come in with a similar game play to last week, focusing on containing the QB while letting the pocket break down from within. Illinois doesn't have a deep bench of play-makers apart from Junior wideout Malik Turner, so keeping Lunt in check should take away most of their game. The other big key for the defense is keeping up with Ke'Shawn Vaughn. He causes headaches for any defense because they use him in a number of different looks out of the backfield. Look for #5 to have a lot of check-down passes, which means tackling in space is a MUST for this game.
On the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska is down two starters in WR Alonzo Moore and OL Tanner Farmer. The depth at receiver shouldn't be an issue, and with Senior Corey Whitaker getting his first career start, the Pipeline shouldn't lose much either. I wouldn't be surprised to see some extra rotations up front to keep people fresh though. For the game plan, there isn't much to change. If the Huskers run the ball like they have been, take their deep shots when they're open, and stay away from penalties, there's no reason they cannot put up 40+. I expect Tommy to continue his upward trend, and having a solid run game to lean on as the game wears on. Huskers win homecoming easy 42-17.
I hope you all enjoyed my picks and have a great weekend of football! I'm going to go enjoy the homecoming festivities here at UNL, including getting to hang out with Celebrity Judge for our Jester Competition..... Miss Hannah Huston!! Very excited to interact with her and celebrate the passion that we have here at Nebraska. Also, BTN's Tailgate show is here in Lincoln this weekend, so before I go tour with the recruits, I'll be sure to hit up the set and see if I can get on live TV! Look for me on BTN and GO BIG RED!!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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