#12 Michigan State at #13 Ohio State
This is basically a "Who wins the BIG 10 East Division" game as the winner has the inside track to the BIG 10 Championship. The Spartans recovered from their Triple-OT loss against Northwestern to bounce back and upset the Nittany Lions last week. My co-host for The 2nd String, Nate Muhlbach, said it best in my opinion... "Never play Michigan State in a rainstorm". The Nittany Lions found that out the hard way as the Spartans racked up 474 yards, 400 of which came from the ARM of QB Brian Lewerke. All season long I've been talking about his legs and his rushing ability from the pocket, but Lewerke lit up the Nittany Lions secondary much like JT Barrett did a couple of weeks ago. The most bizarre thing from this game was the lack of the ground game, but Penn State's rush defense is no slouch. I'm sure Dantonio will be searching for more balance this weekend. Looking at the other side, we have the mighty Buckeyes of THE Ohio State University. The Buckeyes strolled into last week coming off the major comeback win against Penn State and everyone had them pegged for the playoffs... everyone except Iowa that is. The Hawkeyes seemingly came out of nowhere and kicked Ohio State in the teeth with a 55-24 beat down in Iowa City. JT Barrett's inaccuracy at QB have finally caught up with him this season, and he threw 4 picks (3 to the same guy) against Iowa. The crazy thing with the Buckeyes was their lack of a rushing attack. They've been averaging 235 yards per game on the ground, but mustered up just 163 against Iowa. This may sound alright, but Barrett was their leading rusher. He doesn't run nearly as much as he did early on in his career, so with the lack of contribution from Dobbins and Weber, the Buckeyes offense stalled and had to rely on JT's arm. As I've said before, you have to live & die by Barrett's passing ability, and that could be the story again for the Buckeyes. The Spartans held Saquon Barkely to just 63 yards rushing and got a lot of pressure on McSorley sacking him 3 times along with 6 tackles for loss. The "experts" have a 17 point spread on this game in Ohio State's favor, but they've seemed to have forgotten how hard it is to beat a Mark Dantonio team in November. It was a 1 point win for Ohio State last season, and that was when Michigan State was "bad". The Buckeyes are lucky there's no rain in the forecast, but I wouldn't completely rule out an upset in this one. If Michigan State can force Ohio State to rely on Barrett's arm yet again, I think they can win. Besides, they're known for those last second field goals against Ohio State right? I can see this one going either way, but I think it's a close win by the Spartans. I'm not sure how comfortable I am picking this upset, but Dantonio will have something up his sleeve. Spartans with another shocker, 20-17.
#15 Oklahoma State at #21 Iowa State
Both of these teams are coming off tough losses a week ago to fall down to 2 conference losses a piece. The Cyclones have been a surprise this year, but couldn't quite find their offense last week at WVU as they lost 20-16. The Pokes are only offense as they racked up 661 yards and 52 points only to fall short to Baker Mayfield and the rival Sooners in Bedlam. With both teams looking to bounce back, we should see a good one in Ames this morning. Mason Rudolph will look to light up the ISU secondary with his seemingly unending list of weapons on the #1 ranked offense in the nation and Kyle Kempt will look to get the Cyclones back on track to their Cinderella Big XII season. The most impressive part of Iowa State's team however, is their defense. The Cyclones are giving up just 18.9 points per game, which is damn near impossible in the High-Octane Big XII. Their defense contained Baker Mayfield and shut down Kenny Hill. Mason Rudolph will be a different type of challenge though. Blitzing early and often will be the key in this match up as Iowa State failed to get pressure last week against Will Grier. If they can keep Rudolph under pressure, I think their defense can win them this game. However, the Pokes have seemed to find their offense last week, so I'm giving them the edge. We'll see who can bounce back the best in this game, but I have Oklahoma State winning 37-21.
#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn
The Bulldogs travel to Auburn for a big test in the SEC for both teams. Georgia has looked good, rolling through the majority of their schedule, but haven't played anyone too difficult yet. Their toughest game has been Notre Dame, but no one else has presented much of a challenge. Freshman Jake Fromm has looked impressive at QB, but he's only thrown more than 15 passes in a game just 3 times this season. With Auburn's stingy run defense, allowing just 126 on the ground per average each game, Fromm will probably have to make some plays with his arm. The Tigers only give up 16.9 points per game on average, so Georgia will really need to be sharp when moving the ball. Their rushing attack has been phenomenal this year, lead by Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Auburn will have their own issues slowing them down, but I think this will end up being a defensive game. As I mentioned, neither team has been tested too much, so it'll really prove who's legit and who's not. I've made the mistake of picking against Georgia before, so I don't think I'll do that again. Auburn's offense is tough to stop, but they've had their faults this season. Even though the upset would cause some chaos, I'm sticking with the DAWGS! Georgia 23, Auburn 14.
Battle for the Heartland Trophy
#20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin
I absolutely despise making a pick on this game because these teams upset me so much. Nonetheless, Iowa and Wisconsin face off yet again as they battle for the Bronze Bull known as the Heartland trophy. The Badgers look to keep on their undefeated season while the Hawkeyes look to ride their wave of momentum after drumming Ohio State 55-24 a week ago. If you're looking for a lot of action, this would not be my recommended game. Wisconsin and Iowa are going to pound the ball at each other and I doubt much will come of it. Both teams have solid rushing attacks and two of the best RBs in the BIG 10, but also have solid rush defenses. Wisconsin gives up just 87 yards on the ground per game on average and Iowa gives up 147 yards. That means this game will likely come down to the QBs, Nate Stanley (Iowa) and Alex Hornibrook (Wisconsin). Of the two, Stanley has been much more impressive in my opinion. He's thrown for nearly 2,000 yards with a 22:4 TD to INT ratio. One week point has been he inaccuracies on the deep ball, but he did well last week, throwing for 226 yards and 5 TDs with a 64.5% completion rating. Hornibrook has been a bit more accurate, but still makes some poor decisions when throwing. He has a little over 1,700 yards passing with a 64.4% completion rating on the season. However, he also has 9 picks on the season to go with his 15 TDs. I can see this game going either way, especially because both teams win in some of the most lackluster ways, but I'll stick with the Badgers this time around. They tend to be a bit more consistent than the Hawkeyes, but this one will be a grinder no matter what. Get ready for a hard-nosed defensive battle up in Mad-town! Badgers snuff the Hawkeyes 18-14.
#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State
The Tide Roll into Starkville to do battle with the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. This game is always hyped up, making it seem like the Bulldogs have a shot. They don't. As much as I would love to see the upset and as much as I believe in Bulldog QB Nick Fitzgerald, it just won't happen. Now, technically anything is possible in College Football, but I don't see Bama really being challenged until the Iron Bowl. Nick Fitzgerald will definitely give their defense headaches, especially since they're starting to battle injuries, but I don't think it will be enough. The Bulldog defense was run all over by Georgia earlier this season, and I expect Bama to do much of the same. I want the Bulldogs to be competitive, but it just hasn't been in the cards for Dan Mullins and his crew. Bama rolls 38-10.
#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma
The two best teams in the Big XII square off in Norman as the Horned Frogs take on the Sooners. There's potential for these teams to rematch in the new Big XII Title game this year, which honestly could be more important than this game depending on how close the score is tonight. Regardless of the playoff possibilities, this should be a good shootout. Baker Mayfield is on yet another Heisman campaign, and looks to break away from the pack even more with another statement win in November. He's coming off a game where he accounted for nearly 600 yards and 6 total TDs... all by himself. TCU's defense has been solid this season, but they haven't faced anyone to the caliber of Baker Mayfield. However, they're still holding teams to less than 70 yards rushing per game on average and just 13.9 points. They've only given up 20 points in their last 4 games, so the Sooners have their work cut out for them. I think the biggest story in this game however, is Kenny Hill. The Frogs QB has accounted for 2,009 passing yards with 15 TDs, 5 picks and 2 more TDs on the ground. He's completed an impressive 68% of his passes so far this season, so OU will need to put pressure on him often. If TCU wins, it's because of Kenny Hill's play. He will be the key factor because you can only hold down Mayfield for so long. If he can keep pace with Baker, TCU could pull this one out. I'm sticking with the Sooners though, because Baker Mayfield just does not lose. Sooners win a big one at home 40-30.
#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami
Another edition of "Catholics vs. Convicts" is set to take place down in South Beach as the Hurricanes renew their rivalry with Notre Dame. The Irish come into this game looking to remind Miami who the last team to beat them was, and end their 13-game win streak. Their plan is to run the ball, and keep running it all game long. Notre Dame averages 324 yards on the ground per game, so you know Miami is going to load the box. This means Brandon Wimbush will need to pick apart their secondary if they want to win. This could be tough as Miami's secondary has been playing very well lately. Their entire defense has been playing very well as they have 20 turnovers this season. Miami will be looking to rip that ball away from the Irish so they can wear the Turnover Chain. On the other side, Notre Dame has been playing solid defense as well, but hasn't faced an offense quite as talented as Miami's. Malik Rosier has been very impressive at QB, throwing for nearly 2,300 yards with 19 TDs and 7 picks. He has good weapons on the outside, but his best one has to be RB Travis Homer. He took over for Mark Walton after Walton suffered his season ending injury, and has been fantastic for the Hurricanes. Homer has 612 yards with 6 TDs, all primarily coming in the last four games. He'll be a primary focus in this game as Miami will look to relieve the pressure on Rosier that the Irish are sure to bring. This one is a hard game to pick, and both teams look to be Playoff caliber. However, I'm partial to a solid rushing attack, and Josh Adams could be a name to watch on that Heisman list. I'll take the Irish, but I'm hoping for a crazy one in this game. Big stage and big game, the Irish win it 31-30.
Battle for the $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy
Nebraska at Minnesota
The greatest trophy in the history of the world is up for grabs as my Huskers travel North to take on the Golden Gophers of Minnesota. The $5 Bits of Broken Chair Trophy is back, and here to stay now that the Team Jack Foundation and the University of Minnesota Masonic Children's Hospital have sponsored this incredible piece of hardware. The Huskers are coming off a tough overtime loss at home to Northwestern while the Gophers have returned from a 33-10 beat down at Michigan where they gave up 371 yards on the ground. Due to Nebraska's lack of competency on offense, I doubt the Huskers will be able to muster up anywhere close to 150 on the ground, but we can always hope! This is the most win-able of the Huskers' final 3 games, but Minnesota has just as much claim. The Gophers have struggled to find offense under PJ Fleck in his first season, averaging just 23.4 points per game, but their defense has been tough to move on for opponents. The Huskers will need to get the ball to the edge quickly in this game. Keeping it away from the offensive line has been the only way to move the ball lately, so I expect to see lots of roll outs and quick passes to the outside. Sadly, that does mean Langsdorf will try his beloved bubble screen. It won't work, I can tell you that now, but he'll still try. Hopefully JD can break loose on a couple big plays, helping Nebraska edge out the Gophers in this game, but that's probably our only hope. I don't expect much of a run game from Nebraska, so again it will be on the arm of Tanner Lee. On defense, shutting down the run on early downs will be the main focus for the Huskers. Minnesota QB Conor Rhoda has struggled passing this season, so putting the game on his arm will be crucial for the Blackshirts. In the end, Nebraska should be able to edge this one out, but we'll see what team shows up. I'll take my Huskers with a 24-18 win.
Here are some quick hit games that will be interesting to watch:
Arkansas at #24 LSU- The Battle for the Golden Boot is always hard fought, especially on the ground. The Hogs have not looked good this year, but Rivalries are always intriguing. I'll take the Tigers though, LSU wins 33-16.
Florida State at #4 Clemson- Usually a big clash in the ACC is somewhat lacking this year due to FSU's current state, but still could be interesting to see how Freshman QB James Blackman handles that formidable Tiger defense. Clemson should have a field day in this with FSU's nonexistent offensive line. Hopefully Blackman can make it out of this game, I like that kid. Tigers 39, Seminoles 9.
Tennessee at Missouri- Okay, this one is a pretty bad game, but it's kind of fun to see who the worst team in the SEC East is right? The Tigers demolished the Gators last week, and Tennessee is just a mess and a half. That's about all I have to say, so Mizzou wins this ugly-fest 34-21.
Thanks for reading my Gameday predictions and enjoy your football Saturday! Here' the latest episode of The 2nd String as well, GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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