Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Group of 5 Conference 2018 Predictions


     Hey football fans, we're less than two weeks from the kickoff of the 2018 College Football season and I am pumped! As always, I'll be keeping you updated with all the college football craziness here on my blog, and will also have a solo radio show this fall on our campus radio station KRNU2 at UNL. I'll provide details for the show in a later post, but I will make sure to upload all the podcast recordings in case you can't listen live. Another big announcement is that I will be taking a Sports Broadcasting class for my last semester at school, which will provide me the opportunity to call at least one Husker Football game on the radio along with some local high school games, Husker Volleyball and Soccer games! I'm very excited for this opportunity and I think this along with enjoying games as a fan again will be a great way to end my college experience.
     Now onto the actual football part of this post, this one is focused on my predictions for the Group of 5 Conferences. It's not likely any of these teams will make a big push for the playoffs, but there are still some dangerous teams in the lower conferences, and some of the best (unknown) players in the nation. They'll be looking to prove themselves even more this season and could cause a few upsets during non-conference play. So check out which G5 teams could be upset potential and enjoy!


Sun Belt Conference
Last Year's Winner: Troy & Appalachian State

     Much like 2017, the 2018 Sun Belt title should be taken home by one of three teams, Troy, Appalachian State or Arkansas State. The big change in 2018 will be the new Sun Belt Championship game, ending the possibility of shared conference titles like the previous two seasons have seen. With the new championship game and divisions being established in the conference, it does break up the competition a bit. Troy and App. State are placed in the East Division with Georgia State, Georgia Southern and Coastal Carolina. The Trojans and Mountaineers are the primary threats, but Georgia Southern looks to turn some heads with newly promoted head coach Chad Lunsford and 18 returning starters (9 offense & 9 defense). Appalachian State and Troy both bring back 11 total starters, and both teams also lose their star QBs. This makes the East a pretty even slate between those two teams. The West Division should be dominated by the Red Wolves, as they return star QB Justice Hansen and a strong receiving corps. Their defense will suffer some key losses with stud DE Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, LB Kyle Wilson and DB Blaise Taylor all graduating, but there's still enough pieces to shut opposing teams down. South Alabama and Georgia State will have solid defenses to keep games close, but both teams will be breaking in new QBs, so the offenses will need to get up to speed quickly. UL-Monroe returns 8 starters on offense, including the QB-Receiver combo of Caleb Evans and Marcus Green. The two connected for over 800 yards through the air and 5 TDs last season. Evans is a dynamic dual-threat QB, so look for defenses to force him to throw more this season. Their defense has a lot of holes, but should improve slightly from giving up 41 points per game in 2017. UL-Lafayette had a similar problem on defense as they gave up around 40 points per game. There are some questions at QB, but star RB Trey Regas and 3 O-linemen are back to lead a powerful ground game for the Ragin' Cajuns. I anticipate Troy coming out of the East, but the Red Wolves should take the Sun Belt crown in the inaugural 2018 Sun Belt Championship game!


Mid-American Conference (MAC)
Last Year's Winner: Toledo

   The MAC will be a fun conference to watch this year, especially in the East Division. My man Frank Solich and his Ohio Bobcats look to lead the way with 9 returning starters on an offense that averaged 39.1 points per game last season. The deadly duo of QB Nathan Rourke and RB A.J. Ouellette are back after combining for nearly 2,000 yards on the ground last year (912 for Rourke and 1,006 for Ouellette). Plus, 3 of the Bobcats' top 4 wideouts are back, so Rourke will have plenty of weapons. The other potential threats in the East are Buffalo and Miami (OH). The Bulls return the QB-WR duo of Tyree Jackson and Anthony Johnson on offense, and All-American Candidate Khalil Hodge at Linebacker for the defense. Johnson had more than 1,300 yards receiving last season with 14 TDs. Look for him to reek havoc again on opposing secondaries. For the Redhawks of Miami (OH), the 2017 was plagued by injures, causing a down year after finishing 2016 strong. However, star QB Gus Ragland is back and their defense should be one of the tops in the conference with 8 returning starters. It should be a tight race between these three teams.
     Over in the West Division, Northern Illinois looks to reclaim the oh-so-familiar crown. The Huskies won 6 division titles from 2010-2015. They will be lead by star DE Sutton Smith and a defense that returns 5 other starters. They only gave up 22 points per game last season, so look for opposing offense to have a tough time again this year. Offensively, they aren't loaded with talent like Toledo, but sophomore QB Marcus Childers should improve from his freshman season. Speaking of the Rockets, the defending MAC Champions have a lot to replace with MAC Player of the Year, QB Logan Woodside, being drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals. Woodside was responsible for nearly 3,900 yards through the air and 28 TDs in 2017, so his replacement will have some big shoes to fill. The rest of the West division shouldn't cause too much havoc to the top tier teams, but upsets are always possible in College Football. I like Northern Illinois to take control of the West, but the East is a toss up. I'll stick with my man Frankie and I think the Bobcats of Ohio will win their first MAC title since 1968. Ohio wins the 2018 MAC Championship over Northern Illinois.


Conference USA (C-USA)
Last Year's Winner: Florida Atlantic

     Lane Kiffin and his fighting Owls rolled through C-USA last year, with a perfect record in conference play and a 41-17 win over North Texas in the conference championship. They return All-American RB Devin Singletary and 10 starters on a defense that gave up 22.7 points per game last year. Marshall is the second team to watch in the East Division, as they nearly beat the Owls last year, and bring back 17 starters including 9 on defense from 2017. The Heard also get to host FAU this year, setting up a lot of potential for an upset. Middle Tennessee State has potential, but that mostly hinges on the health of stud QB Brent Stockstill. Florida International returns 7 starters on offense, and hosts both FAU and Marshall, so watch out for the Golden Panthers.
     Over in the West Division, there are three big contenders for the top spot. Last year's division champion, North Texas, will be tough to beat as they return 17 starters, including QB Mason Fine. Fine threw for 4,052 yards and 31 TDs in 2017, leading the Mean Green to the 19th ranked scoring offense in the nation. They'll have to fix a defense that gave up around 35 points per game last year, but they're a threat in 2018 for sure. The other two contenders in the West are LA Tech and the newly re-vamped UAB Blazers. Louisiana Tech should have a solid defense, and the offense will look to improve under Junior QB J'Mar Smith. The schedule is not in their favor however, as they have to travel to both North Texas and FAU. The Blazers have a little more luck since they avoid FAU in crossover play and get North Texas at home. UAB surprised everyone last year going to a bowl game in their first year back in the College Football ranks. They'll look to build on their 8-5 season as QB A.J. Erdely returns with 9 total starters on offense. Southern Miss will be replacing a lot of talent with All-CUSA RB Ito Smith gone, but has a good chance to make a bowl game. UTEP and Rice will be with new coaches, so they will be in transition mode for 2018. I like North Texas to win the West again, but watch out for those sneaky Blazers. Nonetheless, Lane Kiffing and Florida Atlantic should roll yet again, potentially even to a New Year's Six Bowl! The Owls are my pick for the C-USA Champion in 2018.


Mountain West Conference (MWC)
Last Year's Winner: Boise State

     The Mountain West Conference has been a bit lackluster over recent years, but Boise State looks to take back the crown as the top Group of 5 team in the nation. The Broncos finished last year 11-3, and return 15 starters, including QB Brett Rypien and RB Alexander Mattison. Their defense held teams to just 22.9 points per game last year, so look for the Broncos to be tough yet again on that side of the ball. I think Brett Rypien will really shine in his senior year, so watch for him to put up some crazy numbers this season. Elsewhere in the Mountain Division, it's a three-way race for second place. Colorado State, Utah State and Wyoming  all make cases for the spot, but I'm giving the nod to Wyoming. Colorado State only returns 9 starters from 2017 and they will be lead by graduate transfer QB K.J. Carta-Samuels from Washington. Luckily they have a lot of weapons around him, so their offense should still be fairly deadly. Utah State was a close pick behind Wyoming, because the Aggies return 16 starters from last year, including QB Jordan Love. Love took over the second half of last season and will look to build on his success. He will have to navigate a very tough schedule however, which includes trips to Michigan State, BYU, Wyoming, Hawaii, Colorado State and Boise State. I like the Aggies this year, but their schedule is just too brutal for them to last very long. UNLV and Nevada both have strong potential to make a bowl game.
     Over in the West Division, the crown will likely be determined on November 17th when the Aztecs of San Diego State visit the Bulldogs of Fresno State. Fresno State won last year, and has a good chance to go for two in a row. The Bulldogs return 15 starters, including QB Marcus McMaryion and one of the conferences best receiving corps. Their defense held teams to just 17.9 points per game last year, so look for Jeff Tedford's team to be a force to reckon with, even with a new Defensive Coordinator. San Diego State will be replacing star RB Rashaad Penny, but Juwan Washington should fill those shoes nicely. The Aztecs also return 7 starters from a defense that gave up only 20.2 points last season. Both teams will be tough this year, but I like Fresno State to take the West. However, the Championship crown will still be worn by the Broncos at the end of 2018. Boise State wins the Mountain West!


American Athletic Conference
Last Year’s Winner: UCF

     The Golden Knights shocked the nation last year with a 13-0 record just two seasons after going 0-12. They were led by Scott Frost, who is now back in his home state of Nebraska to coach the Cornhuskers. The Knights claimed a 2017 national title for their efforts last season and look to continue their success in 2018. Star QB McKenzie Milton will have some talent back to help him, but the true challenge will be learning Josh Heupel's new offense. The defense will likely take a step back after losing standout LB Shaquem Griffen and lockdown DB Mike Hughes to the NFL. Regardless, Milton and Heupel should gel quickly, leading to a lot of wins for the Golden Knights in 2018. Right on the heels of the Knights are the Owls of Temple and the Bulls of USF. Temple won four out of their last 5 games in 2017, and return six players on either side of the ball to make for some solid experience. The Owls get a break missing Memphis in crossover play, but their schedule is far from easy. Road trips include a nasty non-conference date with the Boston College golden feet of AJ Dillon, and then conference trips to Navy, UCF, Houston and UConn. The Owls will really have to make a push in November if they want a shot at the conference title. The Bulls will be replacing star QB Brandon Flowers, who left USF with his name next to nearly every record possible. Charlie Strong will have to find a QB quickly if he wants his offense to look even remotely close to the kind of production they had in 2017. I like the young talent on this team though, so watch out for them to challenge UCF in the season finale.
     The American West Division is definitely the more interesting to watch this year as Navy, Houston and Memphis battle for the top spot while SMU and Tulane look to play spoiler with a lot of experience coming back. Memphis will be looking to avenge their double-OT loss to UCF in the conference championship on October 13th when the Knights come to visit them. Unfortunately the Tigers have a lot of talent on offense to replace with their deadly QB-WR duo of Riley Ferguson and Anthony Miller expiring their eligibility. The defense returns 8 starters however, so look for some improvement on that side of the ball. Houston is a tricky team to pick because they have arguably the best player in the nation with DT Ed Oliver, but have a tough schedule as they catch both Memphis and Navy on the road. The Cougars are going to be a scary team on defense, so we'll see if their offense can put up some numbers to help them out. Navy has arguably the most difficult path to the conference championship as they are on the road for UCF and Tulane. Malcolm Perry has full grip on the reigns at QB, and he rushed for nearly 1,200 yards last season. SMU will transition a bit under new head coach Sonny Dykes, but Junior QB Ben Hicks should help ease that after throwing for 3,569 yards and 33 TDs last year with only 12 picks. Look for them to pull an upset or two as they host Navy, Houston and Memphis all in Dallas. Finally, Tulane could be another spoiler as they return 15 total starters from last season (8 offense, 7 defense). That's the most returning experience in the conference, and hosting both Memphis and Navy could cause some fireworks. I think Houston will come out of the West Division simply because of their dominating defense. However, McKenzie Miltion is a guy who does not lose easily, and I believe the Golden Knights will find themselves atop the American Conference yet again at the end of 2018. UCF wins the American Conference.

     Thank you all for reading my Group of 5 Conference predictions! My predictions on the Power 5 Conference predictions will be posted soon, so be watching and GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando

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