Hello friends! As we near the start of another College Football season, I want to welcome you back to your favorite source for CFB news, analysis and predictions. We'll start off this year as I always do, with my conference predictions and pre-season thoughts. Be sure to subscribe with your email and follow me on social media to keep up with all of the posts this season. I'm always happy to post about new topics based on your comments as well, so if there's something interesting in the CFB world you'd like me to give my perspective on, please let me know! This post is focused on the G5 schools, so there's not much in terms of CFB Playoff implications, but there are definitely some upset minded teams. Without further ado, here are my Group of 5 Conference Predictions for the 2019 season, enjoy!
Sun Belt Conference
2018 Winner: Appalachian State
The Sun Belt is not a conference often watched by most major CFB fans, but there are some teams slated in non-conference with big opponents that could cause some headaches early on in the season. As usual, Troy and Appalachian State will battle out for the crown in the East while Arkansas State and Louisiana Lafayette will fight for the West. Georgia Southern surprised everyone with a 10-3 record last season, even beating eventual conference champ App State in October 34-14. The Eagles bring back 12 starters from a year ago and will look to throw their name into the hat for a Conference Title as well. As is the case with most G5 schools, the rest of the division is dealing with lots of rebuilding and young coaches. UL Monroe should push for a bowl game with 15 starters returning from last year including QB Caleb Evans. The key games to watch will be the Ragin' Cajuns at the Red Wolves (10/17) and the Mountaineers at the Trojans (11/29). I believe App State has the best chance of repeating as they return 16 starters from last year's 11-2 squad. Many people forget they nearly knocked off #10 Penn State in the opening week last year, losing 45-38 in OT. Star QB Zac Thomas returns from throwing 21 TDs last year and the offensive line returns 4 out of 5 starters. A new head coach could result in growing pains, but with this much experience returning it's hard to see the Mountaineers anywhere but the top. Troy has a new coach as well, with 12 returning starters including RB B.J. Smith. Over in the west, Arkansas State's home field advantage against UL Lafayette could be the difference maker between two teams with lots of returning talent and new QBs. I took the Red Wolves on this side last year and missed, but not this year. Arkansas State and Appalachian State will play for the Sun Belt Conference Championship and I've got the Mountaineers claiming their third straight title.
Conference USA (C-USA)
2018 Winner: UAB
Conference USA is always a fun conference to keep tabs on as some sneaky teams like to hide with star players. The Blazers of UAB won last year's title, but a repeat will be difficult as they're only returning 8 starters from 2018. The West division will likely be taken over by the Mean Green of North Texas and their star QB, Mason Fine. I said it at the beginning of last season and I'll say it again, people are missing out if you don't watch Fine play. This kid has thrown for 3,700+ yards in each of the last two seasons and cut his interceptions down by 10 last year, posting an impressive 27 to 5 TD to INT ratio. Some of his top wideouts as well as their leading rusher return for the 2019 campaign, and if they get their defense in shape, I don't know if there's another team in the West that's deep enough to compete. Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech are typically at the top of the division, and both of them get North Texas at home, so there's an advantage. The Golden Eagles are probably the biggest threat with their defense that ranked 3rd in the nation with total defense last year. If they can get an offensive attack up to speed early, they're the biggest threat to take the West. They do return 10 starters on that side of the ball, so there's a lot of experience.
Over in the East division, Marshall and Florida International hold the top spots. Both teams return a lot of players and experience from last year, so their showdown on November 30th will likely decide the division. FIU returns 16 starters while Marshall brings back 14. The Heard will pound it out with a ground game that returns 4 starters on the o-line and a double-trouble running back duo that combined for 1,233 yards and 8 TDs last year. The Panthers averaged 34.6 points per game on offense, but were a bit inconsistent at times. Marshall has the edge in scheduling, getting FIU and Louisiana Tech at home while missing the other heavy hitters from the West. FIU has to travel to many of their tougher games, so we'll see what they're made of come November. The dark horse team from the East would be the Lane Kiffin-lead Owls of Florida Atlantic. FAU will be lead by former Seminoles QB, Deondre Francois, so their offense could be entertaining this year. I like Marshall and their dominant ground game to come out of the East. They'll likely square off against Southern Miss in the C-USA championship for my prediction, but I like the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss is my prediction for the 2019 C-USA Champion.
Mid-American Conference (MAC)
2018 Winner: Northern Illinois
The Mid-American Conference is always one of the most difficult to predict in my opinion. There's a large crowd of talented teams at the top, and there hasn't been a repeat conference champion since 2011-12. Ohio is always one of my favorites to watch because of head coach Frank Solich, but they also have the best QB in the conference with Nathan Rourke returning. The dual-threat phenom threw for 2,431 yards with 23 TDs and 8 picks while rushing for another 860 yards and a team high 15 TDs on the ground. The team lost a lot of weapons on offense and only return 10 starters overall. However, that's better than last year's East division champ, Buffalo, who only returns 8 starters from their school record, 10-win squad. Kent State should improve with 8 returning starters on offense, but have a tough non-conference schedule and have to visit Ohio. Miami (OH) will be breaking in a new QB while Bowling Green and Akron will be breaking in new coaches. I like Ohio in the East.
Moving to the West, we find a little bigger crowd at the top. Northern Illinois won it all last year, in big part to All-American pass rusher Sutton Smith. The departure of Smith and a new head coach could set their defense back a bit, a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game in 2018. Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Toledo were all a game behind the Huskies last season, so it'll be fun to see which team steps up this year. EMU has some holes to fill with only 10 returning starters while the Rockets are still a bit young, but do get Western Michigan and Northern Illinois at home. Speaking of the Broncos, they're a heavy favorite in this division for a couple reasons. Star QB Jon Wassink returns from injury along with 16 other starters from last year's squad. A new Defensive Coordinator should help shave down the 34.5 points per game given up in 2018 by the Broncos, but the one flaw in their plan is a very unfavorable schedule. They will be on the road against Toledo, EMU, Ohio and Northern Illinois. Ball State could toss their hat into the mix with 17 returning starters of their own, but Central Michigan is likely going through an overhaul with new head man, Jim McElwain. The Broncos have a lot of hype behind them, but I have a sneaky feeling about Northern Illinois taking the West again. I'm not going against Fearless Frankie though, Ohio wins the 2019 MAC Championship behind the leadership and play of Nathan Rourke, you're going to want to watch this kid.
Mountain West Conference (MWC)
2018 Winner: Fresno State
The rivalry between Fresno State and Boise State has only grown stronger over the last couple years, and the OT thriller for the MW crown last year sets the stage for another tight battle in 2019. The Bulldogs and Broncos are likely at the top of their respective divisions yet again, but there are a few other dangerous teams around the conference. My personal favorite to watch is the Aggies from Utah State, lead by one of the best (and most underrated) QBs in the nation, Jordan Love. Unfortunately for Love, his coach, along with the majority of his offense is gone. Utah State only returns 9 starters from 2018, so they will lean heavily on Jordan love and his dual threat ability. Boise State is my pick, and with good reason. The Broncos are always tough, and return a lot of talent from last year. They'll need help as star QB Brett Rypien is gone, along with RB Alexander Mattison, but the smurf turf always seems to have a good QB lying around somewhere. Air Force is always a danger in the division as well, and with 14 returning starters they'll push the Aggies and Broncos this year. Wyoming, Colorado State and New Mexico are still rebuilding, but have young talent.
Moving to the West division, Fresno is still the heavy favorite, even with just 9 returning starters. Their team has a lot of experience and I wouldn't expect too much of a drop off from last season. The Aztecs of SDSU are on their heels though, and bring back 13 starters and a dynamic offense. They'll have to navigate a difficult back half of the schedule, but they do avoid Boise State in cross conference play. Hawaii is my dark horse in this division. The Rainbow Warriors return a staggering 18 players from last year's starting squads, including star QB, Cole McDonald. He threw for nearly 3,900 yards last season with 36 TDs and just 10 picks. With so much talent on defense returning, I like Hawaii to surprise the conference this year. UNLV could cause some headaches, but I don't see them making too much of a dent. I've got Boise State and Hawaii meeting for the Mountain West Championship this year, and as much as I would love to see a Hawaii upset, the Broncos are just too experienced in that position. Boise State is your 2019 Mountain West Conference Champion.
American Athletic Conference
2018 Winner: UCF
The Knights have won back-to-back American Conference Titles and have posted back to back 12-0 regular seasons. Year two of Josh Heupel brings a lot of pressure to repeat, and they have the weapons to do so. UCF returns 13 players from 2018, with 8 of those being on offense. Star QB McKenzie Milton will be sidelined in 2019 from his brutal leg injury in late November last year, but Sophomore Darriel Mack and Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush will have tons of weapons to work with once their QB battle is decided. I expect a heavy dose of the run game with Greg McCrae this season from the Knights, who will be rebuilding the defense a bit. Elsewhere in the East division, the Cincy Bearcats are gaining ground on the Knights after posting an impressive 11-2 record in Luke Fickell's second year in charge. They host UCF on October 4th, so control of the division could be decided early on in the season. Cincy brings back 14 starters from a year ago, including a solid QB-RB duo in Desmond Ridder and Michael Warren, who combined for a staggering 44 TDs last year. Temple and USF will likely be battle for third place in the division, both with potential to cause upsets throughout the year. ECU is breaking in a new coach and UConn needs significant improvement on defense before they're in any conversations about conference title contention.
Over in the West, all eyes are on Memphis to see if they can finally overthrow UCF and secure their first AAC crown. The Tigers return loads of talent, including their star trio on offense, QB Brady White, RB Darrell Henderson and WR Damonte Coxie. These three will be tough for any team to slow down this fall, but the big question is if Memphis can slow anyone else down, after ranking 94th in scoring defense and 89th in total defense last year. The Tigers have to travel to Temple, Houston and USF, so their defense will be tested. Looking at the Houston game in mid-November, that could decide the West. Houston, lead by star QB D'Eriq King, will have a high-powered offense yet again. The Cougars ranked 7th in total offense a year ago, and have arguably the best wideout corps in the conference. Depending on who shapes up their defense the quickest, this division could go to Memphis or Houston quite easily. A sleeper team in the West division would be Tulane. The Green Wave have a stout defense and have a new OC to bring life to the offense. That side of the ball is loaded with weapons, like wideout Darnell Mooney (993 yards, 8 TDs) and running back Darius Bradwell (1,134 yards, 11 TDs). The schedule isn't easy, but they're not a team to overlook, that's for sure. Navy is looking to improve after a disappointing couple of seasons and SMU should make a bowl game. I wouldn't be too concerned about Tulsa any time soon. I've got UCF and Memphis in the title game again, but the Knights hold out again, UCF wins the American for the third straight year.
Thank you for reading my Group of 5 Conference Predictions for 2019, and be sure to watch for the Power 5 Conference Predictions post, that will be up soon! Get hyped because College Football is back this weekend!! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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