Alrighty Football Fans, it's that time of the week to give my reflections on the Husker game and the previous week of all CFB in general. This post will cover all of that and highlight some key happenings from the weekend I believe everyone should know about. Read on to see my full analysis of Nebraska vs. Ohio State!
The Buckeyes did exactly what was expected of them by blowing out Nebraska 52-17 last Saturday on the opening weekend of BIG 10 football. To be honest, the game played out exactly as I had imagined, with the Huskers showing a strong, first-half performance, only to completely implode upon themselves in the second half, especially the predictable third quarter crash and burn. It's a narrative we've come to know all too well as Husker fans, falling apart with inconsistency and dumb mistakes. The offense showed improvement, followed by immediate regression while the strengths of the defense looked weak and the weaknesses of the defense looked strong. It's a perplexing team to watch at times, as you never know what you're going to see game in and game out. For those new to the blog, I have my analysis break down into three key sections: GOOD, EXPECTED & BAD.
GOOD - The run game and stopping the run. Nebraska came into this game really needing to establish a rushing attack, something not always well done in 2019. Against the Buckeyes last year, the Huskers finished with 187 on the ground, compared to 210 this year. Martinez led the Huskers in carries with 13 for 85 yards and the other three Huskers who carried the rock were Luke McCaffrey, Dedrick Mills and Ronald Thompkins. There was good success with the ground game, with Martinez breaking off a 39 yard rush and McCaffrey with a long of 47. Ohio State was thrown off with McCaffrey lined up at running back, just as I was. My biggest caveat with the rushing attack was the lack of carries by Mills. I appreciate Martinez and McCaffrey running the ball, but I believe they should be compliments to Mills' rushing and he should have the bulk of the carries. On the defensive side, the Blackshirts' front seven played much better than expected, giving up just 215 on the ground to the Buckeyes and recording 3 sacks on Justin Fields. This was a week point for the Huskers last season, and while they'll need to do better than 215 yards if they're going to win, they were able to disrupt some plays int he backfield and that's a step forward from a year ago.
EXPECTED - Game flow and the Nebraska offensive play calls. As I mentioned earlier, this game played out exactly as I had predicted, and if Kade Warner could catch a wide open TD pass my score prediction of 52-21 would've been spot on. The Husker offense was wildly inconsistent while continuing to put their defense on the field only to get pummeled by the Buckeye o-line and watch Justin Fields play pitch and catch with his wideouts. Dumb penalties and negative yards on first down doomed the Husker offense on more drives than not, and the fumble by Martinez all be took them out of the game. On the offensive side, there were some good takeaways (like the running game), but the play calling was subpar in my opinion. It doesn't seem like Frost has moved away from his three core plays, and they're becoming far too predictable in year three. Play #1 is a QB draw which yields good success twice, maybe three times per game and the rest of the time musters about 3-4 yards. Play #2 is a simple stretch handoff to the left or right with Mills or now McCaffrey in the mix. This typically has minimal success of 4-5 yards with the lack of stellar blocking up front and more often than not ends up as a loss for the Huskers. Last but not least, the #3 play that Scott Frost loves to run is a Run-Pass Option (RPO). The RPOs can be effective if used supplementary, but the Huskers seem to center their entire offensive scheme around them. The purpose of RPOs is to put the defense between a rock in a hard place of sorts. If they come up to attack the run then there are high percentage routes downfield to throw to and if they stay back in coverage then the offense can run for a short gain. However, when they're overused, much like the Huskers have done in many games, then they become extremely predictable for a variety of reasons. Reason #1 is that it takes away 1/2 to 2/3 of the field. RPOs will move the offense to one side or the other so that the run play has some direction, especially when the QB is rolled out. This typically will force the receivers to run routes to that side. This means there is less field for the defense to cover, making their scheme easier to focus on the direction of the play. Predictability reason #2 is the routes I mentioned. It's clear neither Martinez or McCaffrey are trusted to throw the ball downfield as the Huskers refuse to complete passes longer than 7 yards. With RPOs, the routes have to be shorter no matter what. The wideouts don't have much time to run their routes as the defense will be able to press up and attack what they may believe to be a run. If it turns into a pass then the QB has less time to make reads due to the pressure. This brings me to my final predictability reason, #3 is the functions of the defense. RPOs are often easily countered by man coverage, or even some tight zones. Because half of the field is taken away, they know where to funnel all the traffic to, so if the pass is made there is lots of coverage to either knock the pass down or to make the tackle. Additionally, if the QB decides to hand the ball off or run himself, then the increased pressure and push from the defense should limit it to a short gain of just a few yards. Again, these plays can be effective if run sparingly, but the lack of creativity in spreading the field really hurt the Husker offense in this game. I was able to predict a large number of where the RPOs were going, so you know the Buckeyes were able to as well.
BAD - The Husker secondary. What was supposed to be a strength of the Blackshirts this year, the secondary was picked apart quite easily by the Buckeyes. Justin Fields finished the game 20/21 with 276 yards and 2 TDs. WRs Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave led the way with 129 yards and 104 yards respectively, and both had substantial room to work as the Huskers sat in a deep zone coverage for practically the entire game. The zone coverage was expected as Nebraska wasn't going to put much pressure on Fields and they wanted to limit the deep ball. However, the 10+ yard cushions that were given to receivers combined with poor tackling made the 9 yard completions turn into 20+ yard plays more often than not. In addition, you have not one, but two Huskers ejected for targeting who will now miss the first half of the Wisconsin game this coming Saturday. The second targeting call was definitely questionable, but the one on Cam Taylor-Britt was just stupid by him. The Buckeye player was falling to the ground and Taylor-Britt thought a headbutt for some helmet to helmet contact wouldn't do anything but intimidate a clearly superior team. A boneheaded play which should not be made by a veteran player. There's a lot of work to be done before this unit is the strength of the defense it was supposed to be this year.
Quick hit thoughts from the rest of CFB:
- Indiana had one of the craziest finishes I've ever witness to beat the Nittany Lions and I couldn't have been any more excited to pick that upset. They have a few things to work out on offense, but watch out for the Hoosiers!
- Wisconsin's stud Freshman QB Graham Mertz threw for 5 TDs in his debut while breaking multiple Badger passing records in the process. Luckily for the Huskers he's just tested positive for Covid-19 and won't be available for 3 weeks. Obviously I wish him a speedy recovery, but I am somewhat relieved he won't be tossing the ball all around Memorial Stadium this Saturday. Nonetheless, this kid is good and I do not look forward to him lighting up the Huskers for another 3 years after this.
- Purdue had some late game heroics to beat the Hawkeyes who looked very lost on offense. The Boilermakers have a problem for opposing defenses in Junior RB Zander Horvath, a 6'3, 230 lbs. beast of a man who averaged 6.1 yards per carry against a typically stout Iowa defense.
- Michigan looked very strong in their opener against Minnesota, especially on defense where they sacked Tanner Morgan 5 times. The Wolverines also racked up 256 yards on the ground. We'll see how that momentum carries through the rest of the season where they are somewhat written out of championship contention already.
- Mel Tucker's debut for Sparty was spoiled by ex-Husker Noah Vedral and Greg Schiano with Rutgers. Peyton Ramsey looked pretty good in that Northwestern Purple, racking up a couple TDs in his Wildcat debut. Man it's good to have BIG 10 Football back.
- Bama didn't miss a beat against the Vols, but lost star wideout Jaylen Waddle for the season on the opening kickoff.
- The Irish looked impressive, rolling Pitt in a 45-3 route. They have another tune up game on the road against Georgia Tech before hosting Clemson in South Bend on November 7.
- Oklahoma State held off the Cyclones and look to be the Big XII's best shot at a playoff team if they can run the table.
- Cincinnati flexed their muscles on Saturday night with a dominating performance against SMU. The Bearcats rushed for 313 yards with 179 and 3 TDs coming from start QB Desmond Ridder. This man needs to be in some Heisman conversations and this team is still my dark horse to sneak into the playoffs if there's enough craziness.
- Miami survives a scare from Virginia and Wake Forest upset #19 Virginia Tech after a freshman walk-on DB picked off 3 passes from the Hokies. As usual, out side of Clemson (and this year Notre Dame) the ACC is absolutely crazy.
Thank you for reading my reflections on the past week of college football and be sure to watch for my Week 9(ish) predictions later this week. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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