Week 1 Predictions

      Good evening football friends and welcome into the first full week of the 2021 College Football Season! I had to bump my prediction post up a couple of days because there are some high profile games starting tonight and running all weekend through Monday, so you know it's going to be a good time. This post will have my predictions for all the key games to watch this weekend. If there are any other games you'd like my thoughts on just leave a comment and let me know. Enjoy!

Week 0 Record: 3 - 1

Overall Record: 3 - 1

Boise State at UCF

     A unique non-conference matchup between a couple of top tier Group of 5 teams kicks off our predictions for Week 1 as the Broncos of Boise travel to the opposite corner of the country to take on the Golden Knights of UCF in Orlando. Both schools have new head coaches coming into this season with Andy Avalos for the Broncos and Gus Malzahn for the Knights. Experienced QBs lead both offenses which are used to putting up points. UCF has a lot to replace from their departures at the running back position, but Dillion Gabriel will be slinging it all over the field yet again with a talented group of wideouts. UCF struggled on defense last year however, and Boise State often takes advantage of teams that struggle. The Broncos signal caller, Hank Bachmeier, is in his third season as well and has a troublesome duo at RB to help him out. George Holani looks to stay healthy after just 19 carries a year ago due to injuries, and he's complimented by Andrew Van Buren, a 240 lbs. bruiser who had 8 TDs last fall. Both teams want to start this new era with a win, and this could turn into a shootout quick. Boise State's best chance is to control the clock with the ground game, but if the wheels come off and this becomes a high-scoring affair, I've got the Knights pulling out the victory at home. Dillion Gabriel and the air raid from UCF will be a bit too much to stop and they win it 43-38 over the Broncos. This should be a fun one to watch!

#4 Ohio State at Minnesota

     The BIG 10 has a variety of interesting conference games to open up the season this year, and sending the Buckeyes to Minneapolis is certainly one of them. The Gophers struggled with Covid and injuries last season, but before that they went 10-2 just barely missing out on a BIG 10 Title Game appearance. Facing Ohio State who has won the last 4 BIG 10 Titles will certainly be a challenge however. Ryan Day must replace Heisman finalist and first round draft pick Justin Fields at QB, but the Buckeyes are never short of talent. They have one of the best receiver corps in the nation, led by Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Both had over 700 yards in the shortened season last year. Another player to watch is Sophomore wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Gophers defense was one of the worst in the nation last year in all major categories. PJ Fleck is hoping the depth and experience of this year's squad will fix some of those issues. Offensively, the Gophers will likely pound the rock with star RB Mohamed Ibrahim. Tanner Morgan will look to improve upon his 57.9 percent completion rating from a year ago, but most of this offense will run through Ibrahim. The Buckeyes have too much talent and depth to lose this game, but on the road with a new QB is never easy. Despite the tough atmosphere, I say the Buckeyes do fine in this one and win it 34-17.

#10 North Carolina at Virginia Tech

     The Heels head to Blacksburg for what could be one of the biggest battles in the ACC this season. Sam Howell returns at QB for UNC, along with all five offensive linemen from last year. He did lose nearly all of his weapons, especially with Michael Carter and Javonte Williams from the RB spots. However, this kid is still a Baller and UNC isn't barren for talent, especially at wideout. They'll be up against a program typically known as DBU, but the Hokies have struggled as of late, ranking 107th in pass defense a year ago. They will need to slow down UNC to give their offense a chance in this one. The Hokies have struggled to find identity on offense the last couple seasons, and with their star RB and QB gone, they need to find new playmakers to help this offense put up points. It's always difficult to play a night game in Lane Stadium and come out victorious if you're the road team, but I think UNC holds off an early push from the Hokies and puts this game away late. UNC 31, Virginia Tech 20.

Michigan State at Northwestern

     The Spartans look to open up 2021 with a win as they travel to the reigning BIG 10 West Division Champs. The Wildcats are looking to finish the season with their first BIG 10 Championship after falling short last year and back in 2018 against the Buckeyes. They've lost some key playmakers on defense, but Pat Fitzgerald always knows how to get the most out of that unit. He'll be breaking in a new Defensive Coordinator along with 7 new starters on a unit that was the top scoring defense in the land a year ago. Sparty needs to replace Rocky Lombardi at QB after he transferred to Northern Illinois, but they have experienced receivers and have won the last two meetings against Northwestern. This is a tricky game to predict, but I'll go with the home team and Pat Fitzgerald. The offense for the Wildcats has plenty of holes, but Hunter Johnson is primed for a break out year. The former five star recruit has yet to live up to the hype and needs a big season to help boost the cats. This one will be a fight, but I like Northwestern to edge this one at home 20-14.

#19 Penn State at #12 Wisconsin

     One of the feature BIG 10 matchups of the weekend takes place in Camp Randall as the Nittany Lions and Badgers look to bounce back from disappointing 2020 campaigns. Penn State started 0-5 last year, the worst in program history. Sean Clifford is now with his third offensive coordinator in as many years, but should have some healthy weapons to distribute the ball to. The Badgers often have one of the toughest defenses in the country, and that is likely to continue in 2021. Wisconsin needs to find a bit more of a pass rush, but their experienced secondary should give the boys up front extra time to cause pressure. On offense, the Badgers are looking for their next feature running back. While that search continues, they'll rely on Sophomore Graham Mertz and an experienced group of wideouts. The Penn State defense isn't easy to move the ball on however, so don't expect many points in this one. A rugged, tough and grind-it-out kind of game, and you can't ask for anything better to open the season in with the BIG 10. Penn State still has a lot of question marks on offense, and the Badgers always play well when in front of the crowd at Camp Randall. On Wisconsin as they win this one 28-13.

Stanford vs Kansas State

     An intriguing PAC-12/Big XII crossover game takes place in Arlington as the Cardinal take on the Wildcats. Stanford did well in 2020 after a bad showing in 2019, and are starting to rebuild the offense to what it used to be in recent years. An experienced offensive line will help Austin Jones break out at the running back position, but questions at the QB position will make this game tricky for Stanford. K-State returns Skylar Thompson at QB and a dynamic playmaker in Deuce Vaughn alongside him. They can cause headaches for any team, but Stanford's defense is experienced. K-State doesn't have as much strength on that side of the ball, so turnovers and offensive mistakes will likely determine this game. The Wildcats always play very well at home, but I think Stanford is looking to challenge in the PAC-12 this season. The Trees win it 30-20.

#1 Alabama vs #14 Miami

     The Tide still have Nick Saban, but that's about it when it comes to returners. Talent is never in short stock in Tuscaloosa, but this year will have a lot of new faces, including new offensive coordinator, Bill O'Brien. He'll be breaking in a new QB with former #2 prospect, Bryce Young. He'll be up against an improving Miami defense that struggled against the run last season. Bama tends to spread the ball out more nowadays, and I'm sure they'll have plenty of opportunities to in this one. Miami will need to take advantage of the inexperience on Bama's offense if they want to have a shot in this one. The big question is if Miami can move the ball on offense and keep pace. D'Eriq King is returning from a torn ACL, but he's the key to the 'Canes' offensive attack. He's got talented weapons around him to use, but this offense will only be successful against the Tide if King has a big night. While I do think he's talented, there's no way Miami has improved enough to surpass the Tide. Bama rolls 38-17.

#17 Indiana at #18 Iowa

     One of the more under-appreciated games of the weekend could be one of the best. The Hoosiers surprised everyone (except me) last season when they finished 2nd in the BIG 10 East, losing to the Buckeyes by just 7. Star QB Michael Penix Jr. is returning from injury, and has 16 other starters coming back with him. Indiana will look to air it out with a talented group of receivers against an inexperienced Iowa secondary. The Hawkeyes are a tough and disciplined team though, and never easy to beat at home. Spencer Petras is back at QB, but Tyler Goodnsen at RB will be the focal point of the offense. The Hawkeyes make very few mistakes which makes them tough to beat, but Indiana's defense is great at causing turnovers, forcing 25 a year ago. Indiana is my dark horse team to win the BIG 10, and I think they knock off Iowa on the road for major conference victory. Hoosiers 23, Hawkeyes 20.

#23 Louisiana at #21 Texas

     Steve Sarkisian is in charge in Austin now, but has a major trap game to start off his tenure. Louisiana is one of the top teams in the Sun Belt, looking for a major win to start their 2021 campaign for the Group of 5 New Year's Six Bowl Bid. The Ragin' Cajuns were unable to play their conference championship game last season against Coastal Carolina, and many have forgotten the 10-1 record they posted, including a season opening victory against the Cyclones of Iowa State. The UL offense has a lot of weapons, but the Texas defense will look to cause havoc in the backfield with their defensive line. On offense, Texas will look to get the ball in the hands of Sophomore Bijan Robinson. It will be very interesting to see how much the Texas offense resembles what Sarkisian ran at Bama last year. This could be a closer game than the Longhorns want, but I think they'll come out on top. Texas 34, Louisiana 24.

#5 Georgia vs #3 Clemson

     The Bulldogs and the Tigers highlight Week 1 with one of the biggest matchups of the season. Georgia has a lot of hype to make a run at the National Championship this year, and with so much returning experience it's certainly possible. JT Daniels leads a revamped offense, but a lot of their skill players are questionable from various injuries. Daniels will be tested early and often as Clemson returns arguably the best defensive line in all of college football. The Tigers were dominated by Ohio State in the Playoffs last year, so I would expect Dabo's defense to come out and make a statement early. Offensively, the Tigers have to replace #1 overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence and star RB Travis Etienne. Luckily they have DJ Uiagalelei, and he played very well last season when Lawrence was out for Covid. Clemson is never short of talent on that side of the ball, but Georgia's defense is the strength of their team and should be much better than last year's unit. This should be a good one to watch, but I like Clemson to pull away. This team is going to be nearly impossible to beat in 2021. Tigers win a big one 38-24.

#16 LSU at UCLA

     If you're looking for another upset opportunity of a ranked team this weekend, look no further than Pasadena on Saturday night. UCLA ran wild against Hawai'i during Week 0, racking up 44 points. LSU dropped off from their Championship run in 2019, finishing last year with a 5-5 record. The offense still lacks identity, but returns a lot of pieces from last season, including 4/5 offensive linemen. UCLA's defense is experienced and will be tough to move the ball on. Defensively for LSU, they will have to deal with a fast-paced Chip Kelly offense. Dorian Thompson-Robinson isn't the best passer, but if UCLA can continue their dominance on the ground from last week, LSU will have issues. I think UCLA is a team to watch this year, and I'm not quite convinced LSU has fixed their issues. Bruins complete the upset with a 30-24 victory at home.

Fordham at Nebraska

     After a disappointing performance at Illinois last weekend, the Huskers come back to Lincoln and host little-known Fordham for a much anticipated season opener with a full crowd once again in Memorial Stadium. The Rams shouldn't bring too much of a challenge to the Huskers on Saturday, but you never want to assume anything with Nebraska any more. Fordham QB Tim DeMorat has a big arm and threw for 1,049 yards in just three games this past spring as he claimed the Patriot League's Offensive Player of the Year award. The newfound pass rush of the Blackshirts will be crucial in this game to put pressure on DeMorat. Offensively, Nebraska needs to step up their game and quickly. This will be a great opportunity for Adrian Martinez to improve upon his passing and for Nebraska to open up the playbook some more. This defense should not cause many issues, but the Huskers often cause more of those on their own. Opening up run lanes, taking care of the ball and just better execution overall should be the primary focus for the offense. Special Teams can't get much worse after watching last week, so hopefully we see something good there. Nebraska will win this game, but needs to look good while doing it. The 40-point spread is too steep for my liking, but I'll take my Huskers 41-21. I'll let you decide on if Nebraska scores 41 because of two field goals or one missed extra point.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Nevada at Cal - This is one of my hidden gem games of the weekend. Cal is looking to challenge in the PAC-12 this season with an experienced QB in Chase Garbers. The Golden Bears only return 4 starters on defense however, and they have to deal with one of my players to watch this season, Nevada QB Carson Strong. This kid is going to be an NFL talent, but before that he's going to light up the College Football stat sheets this season with a deadly duo at receiver and an experienced defense. Nevada wins a fun one in the season's first installment of PAC-12 After Dark. Wolfpack 36, Golden Bears 21.

BYU at Arizona - The Cougars have to replace first round draft pick Zach Wilson at QB while the Wildcats break in a new head coach in Jedd Fisch. Arizona is also trying to snap a 12-game losing streak while BYU is looking to continue upon their success from a stellar season a year ago, finishing 11-1 and ranked #11 in the nation. Could be a slow start, but I expect the Cougars to have a big day in this one. Cougars win this one 40-22.

San Jose State at #15 USC - The Trojans are favorites in the PAC-12 South, and could easily be looking ahead to next week when Stanford travels to LA. However, the Spartans of San Jose State are not a team that should be overlooked as they went undefeated and won the Mountain West last season. They certainly pose a threat, but USC has too much talent to let this one slip by, Trojans win 38-21.

Florida Atlantic at #13 Florida - The Owls travel to the swamp and with Miami transfer N'Kosi Perry at QB, they'll be looking for an upset. They have a much more experienced team than the Gators, but talent will ultimately decide this one. Depth will start to show and this will look like a tune up game for the Gators. Florida 42, Florida Atlantic 14.

Oregon State at Purdue - The Beavers and the Boilermakers have an interesting PAC-12/BIG 10 matchup to open up the 2021 season. Both teams have the ability to put up points, but stopping opponents has been an issue. The Beavers have improved the last few years and are looking to get bowl eligible for the first time since 2013. Purdue has been bowling more recently, but have had back-to-back losing seasons and a lot of talent to replace this year. I like them at home though, and Brohm should have this team ready to play. Purdue 33, Oregon State 28.

Texas Tech at Houston - Both teams fell short of bowl eligibility last season, but had a number of close losses they are looking to turn into wins this fall. This one will likely be an air raid between two gunslingers with a lot of weapons. Houston's Clayton Tune ranked 4th in passing for the American Conference last year, but the Red Raiders and Head Coach Matt Wells may have hit the jackpot with Oregon transfer Tyler Shough at QB. I like the Red Raiders to win this shootout down south. TTU 48, Houston 33.

West Virginia at Maryland - Another BIG 10 team hosting a Power 5 opponent at home. The Terps host the Mountaineers and this one could also light up the scoreboard. The QB battle will be fun to watch, but whichever team is able to establish a ground game will likely win this one. Maryland struggled to do that last year and the Mountaineers improved drastically from 2019. West Virginia wins 36-28.

#9 Notre Dame at Florida State - Two storied programs meet in Tallahassee as the Seminoles look to upset a top 10 team with the Irish coming to town. Former UCF star QB McKenzie Milton is likely going to take the starting job for FSU, but Jordan Travis played well last year and will likely get some time as well. Notre Dame will have ex-Badger Jack Coan starting, but they have plenty of other talent around him and an experienced defense that should get the job done. Irish win 38-20.

Louisville vs Ole Miss - The last game of the weekend takes place on Monday evening and features the Cardinals of and Rebels. Both teams have a lot of talent to replace after many playmakers from a year ago have moved on to play on Sundays. In a game with inexperienced teams, turnovers usually play a big factor. Neither team did well with turnovers last year, but Ole Miss was slightly better, so they get the nod. Landshark Tony and the Rebels win 34-27.

Thank you all for reading my Gameday Predictions and enjoy Week 1 of College Football! There are a lot of great games to watch throughout the season, so be sure to subscribe and share with your friends and family who love all things football. GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando