We've made it to December football and it's Conference Championship season! There are still some big stakes on the line with conference championships this weekend and some teams could get knocked out of Playoff contention with one slip up. I've got all the keys to victory along with predictions below, so kick back and enjoy a fabulous weekend of football.
Rivalry Week Record: 16 - 9
Overall Season Record: 139 - 69
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Coastal Carolina at Troy
The Chanticleers are looking for their first Sun Belt title after the historic 2020 season they had ended with a cancelled conference championship. They're coming off a 40-point beat down from the Dukes of James Madison who would be in this game if they didn't have a 2 year probation period for newly joining the FBS. Regardless, Coastal and Troy should provide a good show. The Trojans have a tough defense, ranking 4th in the conference. They give up just 16.8 points per game on average and the Chanticleers offense has been up and down at times this year. Offensively, the Trojans run through sophomore RB Kimani Vidal. He's cracked 1,000 yards this season and has 9 TDs on the ground. Coastal gave up 215 on the ground last week to JMU, so this will be a point of weakness I expect Troy to attack. On the flip side, the Chanticleers will likely be without star QB Grayson McCall, who has been injured since early November. That plus home field advantage really helps to Trojans so I'm saying Troy wins the Sun Belt Conference Championship 31-17 over the Chanticleers.
American Athletic Conference Championship
#22 UCF at #18 Tulane
The Green Wave are set to host the Knights down in New Orleans for the second time in less than a month, however the conference title is on the line this time around. Tulane and UCF squared off on November 12th where the Knights walked out of Yulman Stadium with a 38-31 victory. The Knights dominated early in that game and never looked back. They had 468 yards of offense and 2 turnovers against Tulane. Slowing down the run game will be key for the Green Wave as they gave up 336 on the ground in the previous meeting this season. However, I have one major rule in college football, and the rule is you NEVER want to play a team twice. It is hard enough to beat a team on any given Saturday, let alone twice. In a tough game against Cincy last week, Tulane was able to run the ball very well and control the clock. If they can get Tyjae Spears established early in the game they will look to control how often UCF has it. Give me Tulane for round 2 as they win the American Conference Championship 27-21.
Mountain West Conference Championship
Fresno State at Boise State
The Bulldogs renew their rivalry with the Broncos as they return to Boise for the Mountain West Conference Championship. The Broncos won the first round of this matchup by 20 at home back in early October. Boise State dominated that game with nearly 450 yards of offense and held onto the ball for more than 34 and a half minutes. Fresno State is on a 7-game win streak since that day and have held 5 of those 7 opponents to 14 points or fewer. Their defense will need an impressive showing in this game and keep the ball with their offense. Lucky for the Bulldogs, star QB Jake Haener has come back from an injury he sustained against USC early in the year, and with him in the show I think they beat Boise State. Fresno State wins the Mountain West 33-27.
PAC-12 Conference Championship
#11 Utah vs. #4 USC
The USC Trojans have a slot in the College Football Playoff waiting for them if they can avenge their only loss of the season and take down the Utah Utes. Lincoln Riley's first season in LA couldn't have gone any better as they boast the 5th best offense in the nation. Only the game against Oregon State resulted in a point total less than 30 for the Trojans, and the lone loss is to these very Utes in Salt Lake City on an overtime 2-point conversion. As I've stated before, you never want to play a team twice, and with so much on the line, USC is going to come out with a mighty big chip on their shoulder. Never discount the Utes though, they're looking to defend their only PAC-12 Title and bring the 17th ranked defense into Las Vegas for this game, being played at Allegiant Stadium. The QB battle in this one will be sensational yet agin. In the first round back in October, Utah's Cameron Rising shredded the Trojans' defense for 415 through the air with another 60 yards on the ground and 5 total TDs. Caleb Williams did his own damage for USC by throwing for 381 and 5 TDs while adding another 57 yards on the ground. Both defenses have to contain these playmakers and keep them under pressure. Caleb Williams all but has the Heisman locked in his trophy case at home, but this is the night to truly go out and take it. This should be a fantastic one to watch, but I think Williams has his Heisman moment and the Trojans defeat the Utes 40-38 for a PAC-12 Title and a College Football Playoff spot.
Big XII Conference Championship
#10 Kansas State vs. #3 TCU
All hail the mighty hypnotoad as they say in Fort Worth these days. This is one game I've been head scratching about all week long. First and foremost, the Horned Frogs have had a sensational season. Even when their backs have been against the wall, they have found a way to finish out and win each game on their schedule. One of those games back in late October was against these very Wildcats of Kansas State. TCU won that game 38-28 with an impressive second half shut out and 11 point deficit erased from halftime. K-State has been tough to beat all season long, and they will be looking for revenge in this one. Will Howard has taken over at QB and the offense has scored 48 and 47 points in back to back games. On the defensive side of the ball, they have blanked two opponents this season, but 3 out of their last 5 have scored at least 27 points. You don't want to get in a shootout with the Frogs because they score and score in a hurry. TCU averages 41.3 points per game and QB Max Duggan has 34 total TDs to his name this season. Another Heisman hopeful, I think Max has a big day in this game. It goes against my number one rule, but the Frogs are the exception this year and they beat K-State for the Big XII Title. TCU 40, Kansas State 28. FROGS!
SEC Championship
#14 LSU at #1 Georgia
The Tigers had an outside shot at making it into the playoffs up until they got walloped by A&M last weekend. Now they're just looking to play spoiler but Georgia would still go to the playoffs regardless of a loss at this point to be honest. It would make for some interesting conversation, and it is impressive that Brian Kelley was able to get LSU to the SEC Championship game in his first season. QB Jayden Daniels has been fabulous all season, throwing for 2,566 yards with 15 TDs and just 2 picks. He's added another 824 on the ground with 11 TDs. Georgia's defense is fast, but containing Daniels is a different story. On the other side the Bulldogs should be able to put points on the board in this one. LSU's defense is vulnerable and Stetson Bennett seems to pick everyone apart. LSU averages just 2 sacks per game, so if they're unable to make Bennett uncomfortable it could be a long afternoon. Bulldogs win back to back SEC Championships on their way to another Playoff birth as they beat the Tigers 35-17.
ACC Championship
#9 Clemson vs. #23 North Carolina
The Tigers are looking for their 7th ACC Title in 8 years as they welcome the Tar Heels and their dynamic offense. This is a classic case of unstoppable force meeting an immovable object when we look at UNC's offense against Clemson's defense. Now, there's a bit of an asterisk on that due to both teams losing during rivalry week where Clemson gave up 31 to the rival Gamecocks and UNC scored just 27 points which is 10 below their season average. The Tar Heels were on fire until it ultimately consumed them and they dropped very winnable games to Georgia Tech and NC State over the last couple of weeks. Regardless, Freshman QB Drake Maye has been insane this season with 3,847 yards through the air and 35 TDs to just 5 picks. He's also the team's leading rusher with 629 and 6 TDs. The one man show carried UNC to a 9-win season, but has yet to meet the Clemson defense. Despite a couple of tough losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina, the Tigers have gone unbeaten in ACC play and rank 22nd in total defense. They also have 36 sacks on the season as the defensive line is the core strength of that unit. I would expect them to give the true freshman a nice welcome to the ACC Championship as the Tigers have all been there before. On offense, Clemson has really struggled to find rhythm. My remedy would be to feed RB Will Shipley and let him carry the rock as much as possible. He's on of the best playmakers in open space, but also a tough runner between the tackles. He averages 5.9 yards per carry and has 14 TDs on the season. I think he has a big night and leads the Tigers to their 7th ACC Title. Clemson beats North Carolina with strong defensive play 24-17.
BIG 10 Conference Championship
Purdue vs. #2 Michigan
The BIG 10 Championship seems to be the most mis-matched out of all the games this weekend, but you never want to discount that spooky train under the lights. Over the past decade, it just seems like a bad idea to play Purdue when you have a shiny little number next to your team's name. Fun fact of the week, Jeff Brohm is actually 3-1 with Purdue when the opponent is ranked in the top 5. The "Spoilermakers" are sure to be looking to have some fun in this game as they make their first appearance in the BIG 10 Championship game. Michigan has been dominant all season, suffocating opposing offenses with a formidable defense and churning out yards on the ground. Unfortunately, star RB Blake Corum is now done for the season after a knee-surgery earlier this week. The Junior racked up nearly 1,500 yards and 18 TDs on the ground and was by far the Wolverine's best weapon. Backup RB Donovan Edwards has 687 yards and 6 TDs on the season, and he gashed the Buckeyes for 216 and 2 of those TDs last week. Purdue struggled to stop the run against Wisconsin and Iowa in a couple of their losses earlier this season, so this will be Michigan's key. Purdue QB Aiden O'Connell is a 6th year player and has done this before. If he plays lights out, the Boilermakers will stay in it. They will need some turnovers to pull the upset though. Michigan played great coverage on Ohio State's receivers last week and I expect them to do the same this week. Look for extra pressure to be put on O'Connell as the Wolverines win back to back BIG 10 Titles. Michigan 31, Purdue 14.
Thanks for reading my conference championship predictions and enjoy your football weekend!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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