Hello and welcome to Week 1 of the College Football Season! Week 0 provided plenty of excitement with Georgia Tech upsetting Florida State in Dublin, and a number of other close games. Week 1 has also had a few sparks early on with Colorado holding off North Dakota State, and Minnesota missing their game-winning field goal to give UNC a road victory. While a lot of the games are going to be more about how many points can be scored against lower level opponents, there are a few games you'll want to watch closely this weekend. I've got the full slate of games with predictions below, so read on and enjoy the first FULL Saturday of College Football.
Week 1 Predictions:
#8 Penn State at West Virginia
The Nittany Lions are headed to Morgantown to open up the 2024 season against the upset minded Mountaineers. West Virginia turned a lot of heads after finishing 9-4 last season, winning 5 of their last 6 games, including the bowl game. Penn State won last year's meeting 38-15, and are looking to prove themselves as a playoff contender with a big win early in the season. WVU is on a lot of upset radars, but I think teams are taking notice of them. Penn State isn't going to overlook this one with all the hype around it and I think this should be a fun game to watch. Nittany Lion QB, Drew Allar is looking to lead this squad with a big senior year. He threw for 2,631 yards with 25 TDs and just 2 picks last year. Garrett Green slings it for the Mountaineers, but defense wins this game as Penn State starts the season strong with a 30-14 victory.
#14 Clemson vs Georgia
Georgia and Clemson meet in Atlanta as two defensive giants clash in a non-conference battle. There is a lot of talk about the Tigers being left behind as the times change in college football, as Clemson was one of just 4 schools to not take any players from the transfer portal. The other three schools were Army, Air Force and Navy, so you can imagine why they didn't. Georgia is looking for the headlines to be about football again as many members of their team have been in the news this offseason for serious off-field issues. Regardless, they'll get back to the gridiron today, and while Clemson will show flashes of what they used to be, Georgia is too strong to beat. Bulldogs win it 28-17.
South Dakota State at #17 Oklahoma State
The back-to-back Division II Champion Jackrabbits come into Stillwater, Oklahoma looking to upset the Pokes in Week 1. Oklahoma State found themselves in the Big XII Championship after a rough start to the 2023 season, and now have to deal with one of the toughest FCS teams as their opener. The Jackrabbits had one of the best defenses last season, allowing no more than 21 points all season to any opponent, including two shutouts. Oklahoma State will be leaning on their run game with star RB Ollie Gordon III. He carried the rock for a national best 1,732 yards with 21 TDs and a 6 yard per carry average. Alan Bowman starts his 7th year of college football to sling it for the offense, and I think this will be an entertaining game. Don't count out the Jacks, and the Pokes better be ready to bring it. SDSU hangs tough but Ollie Gordon III is too much and the Pokes win 27-20.
Colorado State at #4 Texas
The Rams have an experienced offense looking to get them over the hump in close games. This one is not projected to be close as Texas is favored by 35, but with so many new pieces on defense and questions in the ground game due to injury, CSU has a chance to surprise folks with some folks. Texas is winning this game, but don't be surprised if they're a bit sluggish to start against the Rams. Hook 'Em for a 45-14 win over the Rams.
#19 Miami at Florida
Arguably the most anticipated Week 1 game, we've got an in-state rivalry to kick things off in the Swamp. Florida hosts Miami in a game that could really set the tone for bot their seasons. Billy Napier is hoping to keep his job despite a rough time in Gainesville and a daunting schedule. Miami has brought in a lot of transfer portal talent with some former PAC-12 stars, QB Cam Ward from Washington State and RB Damien Martinez from Oregon State. Florida has plenty of talent, but something hasn't been clicking in that locker room. We'll see if they can get things figured out this season, but I think Billy Napier's time is running out. The Hurricanes storm the Swamp and Miami wins this rivalry 31-27.
#7 Notre Dame at #20 Texas A&M
Our featured night game of Week 1 has the Irish on the road in Aggie-land. Texas A&M starts the Mike Elko era in College Station and he has experience with both programs, having served as the Defensive Coordinator at both programs. He did very well as the head man at Duke over the past few seasons, so the 12th man has high expectations. The Irish are looking toward a playoff bid with a favorable schedule. Former Duke QB, Riley Leonard, who played for Elko now leads the Notre Dame offense, so he's familiar with some of the defensive schemes Elko will be running. This should be a very fun game to cap off Saturday and could come down to the wire. I like Notre Dame's experience on defense though and I'll take the Irish in a very close, 27-25 victory.
#23 USC vs #13 LSU
The Trojans and Tigers had two of the best offenses in 2023, ranking #3 and #1 respectively in scoring offense. However, they also boasted the 121st and 81st ranked scoring defenses respectively as neither team could stop a common cold, let along their opponents. Both teams are breaking in new QBs as Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels are in the NFL now. I'm anxious to see how quickly these teams restock the offenses, but turnovers are the difference maker in a game like this where neither team has much defensive prowess. I'm going with the Tigers because they are more known for defense historically. LSU beats USC in Vegas 37-31.
Boston College at #10 Florida State
The Seminoles flopped out in Dublin as Georgia Tech dominated them on the ground and on the line of scrimmage. DJ Uiagalelei struggled in his first FSU start, but there's still a lot of season left. They come home to host another upset-minded conference foe in Boston College. Starting off 0-2 in the ACC would be pretty devastating to this team, so I expect them to come out with a much stronger and aggressive game plan for this one. Don't count out BC though, the Eagles lost by just 2 points in this game last year. They'll hang around, but the wheels aren't falling off in Tallahassee quite yet. Seminoles win 31-17.
UTEP at Nebraska
The Huskers open their season at home with the Miners from El Paso, Texas. Dylan Raiola is making his first start as QB1 and is only the second true freshman quarterback to start at Nebraska. Adrian Martinez was the other. Nebraska is going to need to establish their rushing attack early to support Raiola, and open up the passing lanes for him and this receiving corps. The Huskers have some talented pass catchers this season, so I'm expecting a big boost to the offensive attack that ranked 117th in total offense last season. Defensively the Blackshirts should hold things down. I think UTEP scores on a couple of busted plays with some early season miscommunication, but the Huskers open with a strong showing for fans in the 2024 season. A good confidence boost for the Colorado game next week, and the Kool-Aid starts flowing a little stronger with Nebraska winning 35-14.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt - The Hokies turned it around last season, winning 4 of their final 6 games to make a bowl game in which they won against Tulane. They're looking to compete for an ACC Title and have a favorable schedule to do so. They're my dark horse to watch for a playoff bid from the ACC and they take care of business on the road 31-17.
Boise State at Georgia Southern - The Broncos open the season on the road down in Georgia, but luckily are facing the Eagles rather than the Bulldogs or Yellow Jackets. Boise State has a tremendous amount of talent and is primed for a CFB Playoff caliber season. They open strong with a 38-17 victory.
UNLV at Houston - UNLV wound up in the Mountain West Conference Title game last year thanks to some tie breakers, despite losing to the team they had a tied record with the week before. The Rebels then lost to Boise in the Mountain West Championship and to Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Star QB Jayden Maiava is now a Trojan, and they have some rebuilding to do. However, Houston is having a rough transition into the Big XII and I think that carries over to this season. Rebels win 37-28
UCLA at Hawaii - As highlighted in my the Bruins oddly specific season preview, the Bruins' travel schedule is absolutely insane. Starting off in Honolulu, the time difference might not be the only problem. Hawaii was one of the few teams that had a Week 0 game, and their offense is starting to grow. UCLA has a lot of question marks post Chip Kelley, but I think they can handle the Rainbow Warriors in this one. Bruins win 35-20.
Wyoming at Arizona State - The Cowboys vs the Sun Devils sounds like quite the Old Western Showdown, but this is just a football game. Arizona State is looking to cleanse itself following the Herm Edwards debacle a couple of seasons ago, while Wyoming is looking to cause headaches for another P4 team in the early goings of the season. The pulled an upset on Texas Tech a year ago with a double OT thriller in the opener, and the desert doesn't scare them much today. Cowboys win the showdown with the Sun Devils 37-31.
The Perfect Parlay:
1. Penn State covers -7.5 against West Virginia.
- The Mountaineers are primed for a big season and will certainly put up a fight, but Penn State is ready to take care of business. The Nittany Lions are winning by 2 scores.
2. Boise State covers -13.5 against Georgia Southern
- A two TD road spread is a lot, but the Broncos offense is primed to do it. They should have good control of this game and I think there are some problems on the Georgia Southern defense that will be exposed. Take the Broncos with the points.
3. Total points over 56.5 with SMU and Houston Christian.
- I think most of these points will be coming from SMU, but after a subpar performance at Nevada in Week 0, the Ponies need a game to get that offense in gear. No better way to do that than against a team you've never heard before. Ponies score 56 on their own and Houston Christian helps them with the rest.
Thank you for reading my Week 1 Gameday Predictions! Enjoy the first full Saturday of College Football and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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