Happy Gameday! We've reached November Football and the Playoff race is wide open. This week only features two ranked vs. ranked matchups, but there's plenty of opportunity for chaos to strike. I'll cover all the big games to watch today but first I'll take a look back to the Huskers' loss in the Horseshoe to the Buckeyes last Saturday. I really did have some hope the Huskers would pull that one out, but unfortunately they fall victim yet again to a one-score loss. I've got a lot to cover, so let's dive in.
The Huskers put the Buckeyes on upset alert for a while last week as they led 17-14 early in the 4th quarter. After being demolished by Indiana a week prior, most everyone on the planet (myself included) did not anticipate the Huskers being much of a factor outside of the first half at best. There's a lot of things to take away from this game, but I'll keep it broken down to my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below with my analysis.
GOOD - The Blackshirts and John Hohl. The Husker defense bounced back with a purpose last week, holding the Buckeyes to just 285 total yards with 11 first downs and 1/10 third down conversion rate. After being shredded in every way possible the week prior against Indiana, this was great to see from the Blackshirts unit. They completely stuffed the run game holding two of the best backs in the nation to a combined 64 yards. A couple of coverage busts ended up hurting them toward the end of the game, but holding one of the nation's best teams to just 21 points at home after giving up 56 the week before is a big confidence boost for the rest of the season. My other GOOD from last week was the kicking (yes, I said kicking) by John Hohl. Relatively unknown until the Ohio State game, Hohl connected on all 3 of his field goals including a long of 54 to close out the first half. The Husker kicking game has been abysmal for years, but maybe it's turning a corner with Hohl?
EXPECTED - Some good and bad with Raiola. Keep in mind, this kid has only played 8 games of D-1 college football. He's still learning a lot about diagnosing defenses mid-play to ensure correct reads and what best plays to check into at the line. I thought there were some very big growing moments with him, especially when diagnosing where to throw certain passes given the coverage, pressure and where the blitz came from. We also saw him break off a 38 yard run and scramble a couple of other times. Certainly not a number one strength, but if he can extend a few plays or drives with his legs, all the better for the Huskers. The interception on a potential game-winning drive is frustrating, and there's some clear communication issues with him and his receivers at various points of the game, but those will get ironed out with time.
BAD - Screen passes. I know Matt Rhule, Dylan Raiola and a number of others have addressed this issue saying it's not all on Satterfield, but I'm still going to beat the drum. Coaching in a very similar offense at the High School level, I know how valuable screen passes can be. They build confidence for your QB and receivers with easy completions and can get you quick yards to keep the chains in manageable situations. HOWEVER, if you cannot block the screens, they are disasters waiting to happen. We spent a very significant portion of our individual time with my wideouts at Standing Bear on how to properly block each screen play and repped it over and over. I'm sure that's the case with the Huskers, but perimeter blocking is still a glaring issue for this offense. Not only in the screen game but also in the run game. The wide receiver blocking needs to be addressed immediately and I'm happy to come in and provide my expertise because that was one of my favorite things to do as a wide out. Seeing as the Huskers likely won't inquire about my assistance, I'll simply watch and observe, but please limit the screen passes until the perimeter blocking is at least at a mediocre level.
Week 9 Record: 20 - 2
Overall Record: 121 - 49
Week 10 Predictions:
#4 Ohio State at #3 Penn State
The biggest game of the day kicks off at high noon as the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions square off in Happy Valley. It's a bit sad this isn't a night game with the White Out scene in Happy Valley, but regardless, we've got a top 5 showdown between two teams that need a statement win. Ohio State has some question marks after my Huskers stifled their star-studded offense, but they always seem to find away against Penn State. James Franklin has always talked about needing his team to level up in order to beat the Buckeyes, so now's the time to see if the work has been done. Penn State needs to study the Nebraska film closely and shut down the run early. This will open up more blitz and pass rush opportunities against Will Howard. Howard was twice last week despite his ability to scramble. Offensively the Buckeyes will look to get out on the edge, either with their RBs or talented wideouts on screens. They block the perimeter much better than the Huskers, so those plays actually go for a gain and sometimes get broken for big yards. Penn State's best offensive weapon comes in the form of a 6'6 Senior Tight End, Tyler Warren. Warren will line up in about every position on offense, including the backfield, so Ohio State needs to know where he is on every play. Both Ryan Day and James Franklin need this win to change the narrative about themselves, but only one can make that happen today. Penn State has been solid all season, and will be again today. However, I think they Buckeyes take this one 27-21.
Duke at #5 Miami
Despite 6 turnovers from SMU, the Blue Devils couldn't knock off the Ponies at home, falling 28-27 in Overtime after a failed 2-point conversion. Now Manny Diaz has a road trip to Miami to take on his former team. The ex-Hurricane Coach has Duke at 6-2 in his first season as the head man, and knocking off his former team currently ranked at #5 would be quite the storyline. For me, it's a QB battle to watch in this one as Maalik Murphy and Cam Ward lead the respective offenses, and both of their dual threat ability has been problematic for opposing teams. Ward is a Heiman finalist hopeful with nearly 2,800 yards passing to go with 24 TDs and just 5 picks. He's added another 3 TDs on the ground and his scrambling ability and avoidance of sacks in the pocket is uncanny. Maalik Murphy has racked up nearly 1,800 yards with 17 TDs and 5 picks. He'll need some help up front because Miami loves to rush the passer and has 26 sacks on the season. I'll take the Hurricanes as they've been rolling along through ACC conference play, but Duke could keep things interesting if they learn how to get some points out of turnovers. Miami wins 34-17 over the Blue Devils.
#19 Ole Miss at Arkansas
Despite a couple of conference losses, Ole Miss still has an outside shot at a playoff bid if they can keep things from going off the rails any more. A road win at Arkansas is needed as they host Georgia next week. Arkansas is one win away from a bowl game and hung nearly 60 on Mississippi State last week. The Hogs are a very capable and deadly team, but struggle to find consistency in their performances week to week. The Rebels struggled far more than I thought they would offensively against Oklahoma last week, but got the job done behind another great Jaxon Dart performance. He'll be big in this game and lead Ole Miss to a 31-21 victory on the road.
Minnesota at #24 Illinois
Vegas must know something here as the Gophers are favored on the road against the Illini. Minnesota's defense has quietly become one of the nation's best, ranking 9th overall in Total Defense and 12th in Scoring, allowing just 16.8 points per game on average. The Illini fell to Oregon on the road last week, but took down Michigan at home the week prior. Luke Altmeyer is still having a strong season, throwing for nearly 1,700 yards thus far with 15 TDs and just 3 picks. He'll need to get this offense in gear as they've failed to reach double digits in their two losses, scoring 7 against Penn State and 9 against Oregon. Both of those team are top 15 defenses like the Gophers. Turnover margin is key in tight games, and both of these teams have been two of the best in the conference. I haven't watched enough Gopher football to fully appreciate why they're the favorite in this game, but I know the Illini are looking to bounce back, so give me the home underdog for a 23-20 win.
#1 Oregon at Michigan
The Wolverines look to slow down the high-powered Ducks as they come into the Big House for afternoon BIG 10 Clash. Big Blue is very one dimensional with their run heavy attack, but Senior Davis Warren has opened at least a few options in the passing attack. He'll have a very difficult pass rush to deal with when he drops back though, as Oregon averages 3 sacks per contest. Offensively, the Ducks still run on the back of Jordan James. The Junior is averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 8 TDs on the season. Despite fewer carries in the last couple weeks, he's still been productive and helps move the chains. That opens up the offense for Dillon Gabriel and everything else they want to do, so keep your eye on #20 when he doesn't have the ball, because I guarantee Michigan will flow his way on play-fakes. Ducks stay on top 31-17.
Florida vs #2 Georgia (World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party)
The Gators are looking to play spoiler in the back half of the season as they have 4 out of 5 remaining games against ranked conference opponents and don't have much to fear with a young QB out there developing week after week. Georgia does not look as dominant compared to previous years, and Carson Beck (as predicted) continues to struggle finding his weapons. One of the easy weapons for the Georgia offense though is ex-Gator Trevor Etienne. He's rushed for 7 TDs in the last 4 games and is due to for a breakout day. Why not against his former team? Bulldogs win 34-20 behind Etienne.
Texas Tech at #11 Iowa State
The Red Raiders love to play close games, and despite some early celebrations, they ended up falling last week to the rival Horned Frogs 35-34. Iowa State is coming off their BYE week after nearly losing to UCF at home, so I'm sure Matt Campbell is anxious to get them back on track. Rocco Becht is very dynamic to watch, and his defense should stuff Tahj Brooks and the Red Raider run game. Give me they Cyclones at home 33-17.
#13 Indiana at Michigan State (Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon)
Sparty is starting to find some footing under first year HC Jonathan Smith, but now host Cignasty and the 13th ranked Hoosiers after falling to in-state rival Michigan last week in the Big House. Star QB Kurtis Rourke is back under center for Indiana, which means their offense is back to full strength. The Hoosiers love to score and won't stop until the clock hits 0:00, so if Michigan State is going to win this game, Aidan Chiles better make good on his promise from the beginning of the season and help us bet the overs. Chiles is certainly a talented athlete, but turnovers have plagued him this year with 9 picks and 3 fumbles on the year. Indiana will take full advantage of those and I expect them to win 35-14.
#10 Texas A&M at South Carolina
The leaders of the SEC head to Columbia to take on the Gamecocks. Yes, the Texas A&M Aggies are in first place atop the SEC and have a very clear path to the Championship Game in Atlanta. South Carolina has proven to be an upset minded team this year, and are fresh off a BYE week. Raheim (Rocket) Sanders is a focal point of the offense, rushing for 4.4 yards per carry and 6 TDs this season. The Aggies defense ranks 18th against the rush and have held three of their last four opponents to 100 yards or less on the ground. Offensively, I would assume to see Marcel Reed at QB, but there could be a Connor Weigman sighting as well. Weigman was benched in favor of Reed against LSU last week and the Aggies turned a 10-point halftime deficit into a 38-23 victory. Reed provides an extra element to the run game with his legs, but South Carolina's defensive front is no joke. We've seen them create havoc in the backfield all season long with 57 Tackles for Loss and 28 Sacks. A&M needs to protect up front, but I think they get the job done and win 30-27.
Louisville at #11 Clemson
The Tigers have yet to lose to Louisville, 9-0 all time against the Cardinals. Dabo has Clemson rolling since that opening loss to Georgia, and they're averaging 42 points per game as the 4th ranked scoring offense in the nation. Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals have three losses on the season by one score each to ranked teams in Notre Dame, SMU and Miami. They're due for a big upset, but Death Valley is not an easy place to find those. Certainly a fun one to watch tonight, but I think the Tigers' offense is too much for Louisville to keep pace with, similar to their loss against Miami. Tigers 38, Cardinals 28.
Wisconsin at Iowa (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)
Night games don't happen often in Iowa City, but when there's a Cow Trophy on the line you know they shine just a bit brighter. Wisconsin comes into Iowa City for a classic BIG 10 West type showdown. The Hawkeyes have a running back who would be in some Heisman talks if not for Ashton Jeanty up in Boise making everyone look bad by comparison. Kaleb Johnson has 1,144 yards with 16 TDs to his name this season, averaging a staggering 7.8 yards per carry. He's really the only source of offense for Iowa as the QB position continues to be a blackhole. Defensively they're not as stonewalled as they used to be, but opponents are still scoring fewer than 20 points per game on the Hawkeyes. For the Badgers they struggled to run the ball against Penn State, mustering up just 81 yards. If the run is established early, they can hold off the Hawkeyes, but I still have some question marks about Wisconsin. This will be one of those BIG 10 games where the first team to 20 wins, and oddly enough I think Iowa can get to 20 now. I'll take the Hawkeyes at home 23-17.
#18 Pitt at #20 SMU
The only other ranked vs ranked matchup of the week features unbeaten Pitt on the road against the Red Hot Ponies. SMU was my dark horse to storm the ACC and get into the championship mix, a win against Pitt almost guarantees that with Boston College, @Virginia and Cal remaining on the schedule. Pat Narduzzi's squad still has Clemson and Louisville ahead of them, but are one of the few unbeaten teams in the nation. Very few have paid attention to the Panthers, but after ranking 116th in total offense and scoring offense last season, they are currently ranked 25th and 6th respectively with an average of 443 yards per game and 40.9 points. This could turn into a shoot out in Dallas, but the weather may have other plans with some rain. SMU somehow pulled out a road victory with 6 turnovers last week, so if they can hold onto the ball winning will be much easier. Pitt hasn't played an offense as dynamic as SMU's, but they racked up 5 picks and 3 TDs defensively against Syracuse last Thursday. This should be a fun game to watch, but it's on the ACC Network, so not many will be able to see it. Give me the Ponies by a late game score to seal it 38-35.
Culver Stockton at Peru State
My former roommate and radio co-host Nate Muhlbach will be joining me for this Broadcast as the Bobcats host the Wildcats for a Heart of America Conference battle in the Oak Bowl. Peru State is coming off a 50-7 victory on the road last week and average around 405 yards per game offensively. Culver Stockton is 1-7 on the season and defensively allow 49 points per game on average. Big opportunity for Peru to keep rolling and I've got the Bobcats winning 56-14. Be sure to tune in to the broadcast with the link below!
UCLA at Nebraska
The Huskers could celebrate bowl eligibility with their fans at Memorial with a win today. UCLA has had a rough start to the BIG 10 lifestyle, sitting at 2-5 and 1-4 in conference. They're coming off a BYE following their win over Rutgers, but now travel to Lincoln for a dreary and rainy afternoon in Nebraska. The sunshine-loving Bruins won't do well with the weather, so the Huskers need to take advantage of that early. Raiola's passing game will get tested on it's own in the weather, so look for a run heavy script from the Husker offense. Defense should have another big day as UCLA's offense has a limited number of weapons and they are -7 in turnover margin. Show up, command the line of scrimmage and pressure the QB to force turnovers. Huskers win and are bowl eligible for the first time since my Junior year of college with a 28-14 victory.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Virginia Tech at Syracuse - The Hokies are primed for a big finish to their season and Kyle McCord fell apart with 5 INTs against Pitt last week. Virginia Tech 27, Syracuse 21.
Arizona State at Oklahoma State - Nothing seems to be going right for Mike Gundy and the Pokes this season, but they've got to get at least one conference win, right? Pokes at home by a field goal 31-28.
USC at Washington - The Trojans and the Huskies meet now as BIG 10 opponents and neither has enjoyed the cross country travel that comes with it. Happy to be playing on the West Coast for an away game, give me USC to win in Seattle. Trojans 33, Huskies 24.
Vanderbilt at Auburn - Tigers are favored by -7.5 to a team that just took Texas to the wire with surge in the second half. Give me the Commodores on the road to Anchor Down and get bowl eligible. Vandy wins 30-26.
Kentucky at #7 Tennessee - The Wildcats already upset Ole Miss this season and took Georgia to the wire as well. On the road at Rocky Top, but Tennessee has been shaky lately. Cats keep it close, but Vols prevail 23-14.
Thanks for reading my Week 10 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday. GO BIG RED!
Peru State Livestream: https://www.heartconferencenetwork.com/peru/
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando