Welcome to Rivalry Week! As I've stated many times before, this is my absolute favorite weekend of the year. Tons of food with Thanksgiving, lots of time with family and friends, and most importantly... the best college football of the season! This weekend has a ton of great matchups that will certainly shake up the playoff picture. This post will have my predictions on all the best games this weekend and my key factors to victory for each team. As always, feel free to reach out or comment with any thoughts you have or questions about other games and college football news. Enjoy!
Week 13 Record: 15 - 7
Overall Record: 172 - 75
Rivalry Week Predictions:
Oregon State at #11 Boise State
The Beavers mounted a fantastic comeback to knock off Wazzu in the 2-PAC Championship last weekend, but now have to get through the Playoff-bound Broncos to become bowl eligible. Boise State got some help from Memphis last night, knocking off Tulane, who was the next highest rated G5 team. The Broncos are holding onto a first round BYE at the moment though, and that would be huge for them to finish ahead of a major conference. As it should be, the focus of this game is Heisman-hopeful, RB Ashton Jeanty from Boise State. Oregon State ranks 103rd in the nation, giving up 178 yards per game on the ground, and Jeanty averages 187 on his own. I expect a Heisman statement performance from the Blue & Orange workshorse, so 225+ and 3 TDs to put Boise over the top with a 31-21 victory.
Minnesota at Wisconsin (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)
The Gophers and Badgers meet for their annual clash of rodents as they go after Paul Bunyan's Axe. Wisconsin's defense was demolished by my Huskers last weekend, and suffered their 4th straight loss. They need a victory to get to a bowl game, but PJ Fleck and the ever-annoying Gophers are looking to prevent that. Minnesota has lost 5 games this season, 4 of which were 1-score games. The Gophers fell just short of knocking off Penn State last week, and limited the Nittany Lions to just over 25 minutes of TOP. Their defense ranks 11th in the nation and if they can perform a little better on third and fourth down, they could be sitting with a very different record. This game is always a tough one to pick because when Minnesota seems like the better team, they fall flat and let the Badgers command tempo. I'm not sure Wisconsin has it all figured out though, and I'll take Minnesota on the road 23-21.
Miami (OH) at Bowling Green
If the Ohio Bobcats take care of business as expected against Ball State, the winner of this game goes to the MAC Championship to take on the Bobcats. Redhawk QB Brett Gabbert has been hot over the last 5 weeks, throwing 9 TDs to just 1 pick. Bowling Green has been one of the more consistent teams this season out of the MAC, and nearly knocked off Penn State and Texas A&M early in the season. Both teams match up well on the stat sheet, so this should be a great game to watch to start the day. I said the Redhawks were the team to beat in the MAC this season, so I'll stick with that claim and say they win a close one on the road. Redhawks 33, Falcons 28.
Mississippi State at #14 Ole Miss (The Egg Bowl)
The Rebels likely lost their spot in the playoff thanks to Florida last week, and also gave up their spot in the SEC Championship. Mississippi State is just looking for a conference win this season as they finish up a year to forget in the Grove. Obviously, they would love nothing more than to knock off the Rebels another notch and claiming another victory in Oxford. Unfortunately, I don't think they'll have the offensive firepower to keep up with Ole Miss, and the Rebels should runaway with this one fairly early. Jaxon Dart should have a fun senior day as the Rebels win 38-21.
Georgia Tech at #7 Georgia (Clean, Old Fashioned Hate)
After watching everyone around them in the SEC lose last week, Georgia now sits squarely back in the Conference Title picture. They end their season with the annual bout with Georgia Tech for some Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. The Ramblin' Wreck have been upset-minded all season long, and knocking their rival down to finish the season is always a little bit sweeter. They will be focused on ball control and grinding it out with the run game. Their 2 QB system with Haynes King and Aaron Philo has been interesting to watch, but Georgia's defense is always a tough task. They rank 15th in total defense and average nearly 3 sacks per game. The Yellow Jackets have only given up 5 sacks all season, so the push up front and protection is the matchup to watch in this one. I'll say the talent wins out with Georgia, but this could be a close one for a while. Bulldogs win 27-17.
Michigan at #2 Ohio State (The Game)
The Buckeyes have lost 3 straight to the Wolverines, including when Sherrone Moore was coaching last season in place of the suspended Jim Harbaugh. Michigan looks very different under Moore as full-time head coach this season, and their QB struggles have led to a frustrating 6-5 season. They just bought out at top QB Recruit in Bryce Underwood from LSU, so next season has some hype. However, there's always hype around The Game, and if Michigan can complete a 4 year sweep, they'll knock the Buckeyes out of the BIG 10 Championship. Ohio State seems set to get a rematch against the Ducks, and started flexing their defensive muscles a bit more against Indiana last week with a tremendous amount of blitzing. Michigan can still run the ball, and have plenty of their own playmakers on defense, but if Ryan Day loses this game, they'll be coming for him in Columbus. Buckeyes with a statement ahead of the BIG 10 Championship 37-17.
#8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
The Vols are securely in the playoffs if they can beat Vanderbilt on the road. They won't get to Atlanta for the SEC Championship, but they can sit in the bracket and watch chaos fall around them. However, Diego Pavia may have other ideas. UT has dominated this series over the last 5 years, but Vanderbilt is ready to change the script. Both teams love to force turnovers and are sitting at +6 on the season. Both QBs take good care of the ball, so any mistakes will be extra costly in this one. Most importantly, keep your eyes on #6, Dylan Sampson. The Tennessee running back has 22 rushing TDs on the nation and averages 5.7 yards per game. If Vandy can't contain him, they won't have a chance to win. Give me the Vols behind a big day from Sampson to win 28-21. Would love another Vandy upset story for more chaos, but I think Tennessee fends them off.
#15 South Carolina at #12 Clemson (The Palmetto Bowl)
With enough chaos, this game could be considered a playoff elimination game as both teams sit right on the edge of playoff consideration. Clemson is currently bumped out of the bracket despite their #12 ranking as a Big XII team has to get in from the championship, but teams ahead of them could lose, giving the Tigers a good shot to sneak in. South Carolina has been close but not quite over the hump this season, upsetting A&M a few weeks ago, but falling short against LSU and Alabama. They are lead by the QB/RB duo of LaNorris Sellers and Raheim (Rocket) Sanders. The two of them have accounted for 33 TDs this season and have been a headache for all opposing defenses. Clemson hasn't been tested much outside of the Georgia stomping and Louisville upset, so in a close game I lean toward the Gamecocks. South Carolina ranks 12th with 31 plays of 30+ yards, and Clemson ranks 75th with 22 plays of 30+ yards given up. Gamecocks upset the Tigers in Death Valley with big plays 36-28.
West Virginia at Texas Tech
Somehow, both of these teams are still in the mix for the Big XII Championship with a little help. Obviously the winner of this game is the only one with a chance after the clock hits 0:00, but a classic shootout should be in store. Texas Tech has found a way to both win and lose close games in crazy ways, it's been up and down all season. West Virginia typically has either been in command or out of sorts. Much like the entirety of the Big XII, it's been a roller coaster all season long. I'll take the Red Raiders at home as the Mountaineers have a -4 turnover margin. Wreck 'Em for a 36-31 victory.
#5 Notre Dame at USC (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh)
The switch to Jayden Maiava has proven to be the right choice for the Trojans as they've won 2 straight behind the UNLV transfer. Their offense has taken a step in the right direction and his ability to evade defenders in the pocket has been incredible to watch. Notre Dame is looking to host a Playoff game and will lean on their rushing attack to do so. Jeremiyah Love has 14 TDs on the ground this season and averages 7 yards per carry. I think USC's offense will give the Irish more headaches than they've experienced for most of the year, but won't have enough to finish the job. Notre Dame has given up just 1 of these games since 2016, but that was two years ago the last time they were in LA. Irish 34, Trojans 21.
#6 Miami at Syracuse
The Hurricanes win and they're in to the ACC Championship against SMU. If they lose, Clemson will take their spot and have a shot at a first round BYE. Miami was upset by the ground and pound strategy from the Ramblin' Wreck a couple of weeks ago, and now travel up to the dome to take on the mighty Orange and the rocket arm of Kyle McCord. The Orange gunslinger leads the nation with 3,946 yards passing, followed closely by Cam Ward from the Hurricanes at 3,774. With the two best passing attacks in the nation ready to light it up, we look to the pass rush and pass defense. Miami does rank higher in both, but if the 'Cuse keep it close there could be some chaos. I think Miami is a fun matchup for SMU though, and the best chance for the ACC to get 2 teams into the playoffs. Maimi hangs on in a tough road environment 37-31.
Cal at #9 SMU
I'm happy for the Golden Bears and reaching a bowl game after their comeback win against Stanford, but now they're up against my adopted favorite team of the season in SMU. The Pony Express is alive and well in Dallas, and this team is playoff bound with a chance for first round BYE as they await their ACC Championship Game opponent. QB Kevin Jennings is one of my Heisman favorites for next year and he has this offense rolling. The Mustangs are averaging just under both 450 yards per game and 40 points per game. I expect to see similar numbers today as they win 38-17 against Cal for another historic Atlantic Coast Conference battle... Pony Up!
Auburn at #13 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)
Alabama was absolutely crushed by Oklahoma's defense last week, mustering just 234 total yards and 3 points. The Sooners picked off Jalen Milroe 3 times, and once for a TD of their own. Auburn out lasted A&M in Overtime after giving up a 21-7 halftime lead. The Tigers can make a bowl game with an upset win against Alabama, and would certainly have the pleasure of knocking the Tide out of the playoff picture. They're on the outside looking in right now, but teams will drop as we finish rivalry week and head to the conference championships. Luckily for Kalen Deboer, he gets the first Iron Bowl on his home turf. Hugh Freeze will have something special cooked up for this, and I expect Jarquez Hunter to continue his success on the ground for the Tigers. I want this upset, but I don't think Jalen Milroe will have another 3 interception game, especially at home. Tide end up rolling to a 34-24 victory.
#16 Arizona State at Arizona (Duel in the Desert: Battle for the Territorial Cup)
Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils are atop the Big XII Conference, needing a victory over their in-state rivals to go to Arlington for the Championship. They were picked last this season and now are 1 win away from the conference title game, a very impressive turnaround for Dillingham and his staff. Arizona was gutted when Jedd Fisch left for Washington, but the talent was still around the roster with Noah Fafita and Tetairoa McMillan. The two of them have been good this year, but the team has a whole couldn't muster much defense to help them. Keeping their arch rival from a championship though, there's nothing sweeter than that. I like Arizona to start hot, but the QB play of Sam Leavitt will prevail the Sun Devils in the end. Arizona State somehow gives themselves a shot at a first round BYE with a win for the Territorial Cup. Sun Devils 33, Wildcats 27.
Purdue at #10 Indiana (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)
Apart from their first quarter performance, Indiana was not much of a factor against Ohio State and really struggled against the blitz. It's been a terrible season for Troy Walters and the Boilermakers, but that Old Oaken Bucket is up for grabs, and Purdue may try to replicate the Buckeyes blitzing. I think we all expect Indiana to bounce back quickly and hold their playoff spot with another big performance against the Boilermakers. This is one of College Football's oldest rivalries and trophies, and the Boilermakers have won 5 out of the last 6. Hoosiers get their first Oaken Bucket victory at home since 2016 with a 35-14 win over the derailed trains.
Florida at Florida State (Sunshine Showdown)
I don't think any college football analyst could've predicted the records of these two teams as they meet for their annual rivalry, but here we are at the end of the season with Florida needing a victory over the 2-9 Seminoles to get to a bowl game. FSU has been a complete disaster this season and that's about the nicest thing you can say. The Gators have come alive in the back half of the season and rising star DJ Lagway is starting to show flashes of what this team could do in the SEC next season. They've got back-to-back victories over LSU and Ole Miss, effectively knocking both of them out of the playoffs. They hung around with both Tennessee and Georgia, so look for them to put a CHOMP on Florida State. Gators win 31-14.
Washington at #1 Oregon (Cascade Clash)
Due to conference realignment, this rivalry has been moved to the end of the season as the Apple Cup and Civil War are played as non-conference games. This may be one of the few benefits of the new rivalry week, because this game is always electric. Washington owned the series last season wining in both the regular season and the PAC-12 Championship. Kalen Deboer is now at Alabama, but I highly doubt Dan Lanning and the Ducks have forgotten how last season went. The Dubs have won the last 3, all by 3 points a piece. Jedd Fisch will be a good coach with that program, and they've shown some flashes so far this season, but Oregon is too much to handle. The Ducks are coming off a BYE and already have their spot in the BIG 10 Championship. Washington can hang around if they convert some third downs, but they rank 98th in conversion and the Ducks rank 12th in allowing third down conversions. S'co Ducks as they make a statement against their rivals 34-14.
#3 Texas at #20 Texas A&M (Lone Star Showdown)
The biggest matchup of the weekend restarts an old rivalry between Texas A&M and Texas. The Longhorns pulled out a of Aggieland with a last second field goal back in 2011, and apart from some baseball drama earlier this summer, neither team has done much to acknowledge the other exists. Texas needs a win to go to the SEC title game in their first season as a member, but the Aggies could spoil it all with a win at home. A&M dropped the ball (literally) in a 4 OT thriller against Auburn last week, and now play host to their bitter rivals with playoff opportunities on the line. This is what college football is all about and this is the chaos we need. Texas QB Quinn Ewers suffered an ankle injury against Kentucky, so it's likely Arch Manning will get the start. No bigger stage than Kyle Field at night in late November with a conference championship bid on the line, so if he's able to perform the legend of his college career will already be written. Throw out the stats and just play some ball, this game will be rocking. I've been thinking about this game all year and I just have that gut feeling about A&M hosting their most hated rival for the first time in 13 years with a chance to destroy everything. Let chaos reign and the Aggies beat Texas at home 31-30. Gig 'Em.
#24 Kansas State at #18 Iowa State (Farmaggedon)
This game was originally looked at to be an elimination game of who would go to the Big XII Championship, and we actually did end up here! The Big XII has been more chaotic than we imagined, but both teams have a shot at the championship with some help. Step 1 is always to beat the rival though, and after the Cyclones ran away with this one in the snow last year, racking up 258 rushing yards, I expect K-State to try and load the box a bit more. Unfortunately for them, Rocco Becht is the true x-factor and he's looking to repeat from last year. Both teams have slipped late in 1-score games, but I like Becht to have a big night and get the Cyclones to Arlington. There's a lot of shakeups that need to happen in the Big XII, but I'll take Iowa State to win Farmaggedon 27-21.
Virginia at Virginia Tech (Commonwealth Clash: Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)
The winner of this game gets to go bowling, so there's a little extra fuel in the fire for the Commonwealth Clash. Virginia Tech had a lot of hype coming into the season and I thought they had a chance to be one of the teams in the mix for the ACC Championship. They've been playing some Nebraska-type football as 5 of their 6 losses are by just 1 score. Virginia has been great against the spread this season, but have failed to do much beyond that. I'll take the Hokies behind a big performance from Senior RB Bhayshul Tuten who has 13 TDs on the ground this season and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Virginia has been run over, around and through quite a bit the last couple weeks. Virginia Tech wins 30-24 because the Cavs love to cover.
Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game: Battle for the Heroes Trophy)
The bowl streak is broken and the Huskers have confidence going into the Heroes game for the first time since my freshman year of college in 2014. The offense looks so much smoother under Dana Holgersen and if Emmett Johnson can have half the day he did against Wisconsin, I like the points the Huskers can put up. Iowa's defense is still one of the best in the conference, giving up just 311 yards per game and 17.7 points on average, but there are holes in the armor. Most importantly, the Huskers have lots of weapons to take advantage with. As mentioned yesterday, I love the tight end changes and the blocking they provide on the edge. Dylan Raiola is making better reads with easier route combinations, allowing his playmakers to get the ball earlier and do something with it. Defensively, there is concern in facing Caleb Johnson. The Hawkeye running back has nearly 1,500 yards with 21 TDs on the ground this season, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Luckily, they don't have anyone to play QB, so if the Blackshirts can load the box, tackle low and force Iowa to pass this could be a big day. It almost always comes down to the wire between these two teams, and a late night November game will be true BIG 10, midwest football with a high of 13 degrees. Give me the Huskers with an old-school Blackshirt performance to win 23-14. Emmett Johnson with another big day and the Huskers reach my 7-5 record prediction for the season.
#1 Nebraska at #4 Penn State (Volleyball)
The Huskers have been demolishing top ranked opponents all year and have their sights set on an outright BIG 10 Championship with a win tonight. Then they're on a revenge path for the Natty and I don't think anything is going to stop this team. They sweep Penn State 3-0 today and show why they're the true #1 Volleyball Team in the nation. GO BIG RED!
Quick Hit Predictions:
Oklahoma State at #25 Colorado - The Buffs need some help but could still find a way into the Big XII Championship despite their loss last week. Oklahoma State is still looking for its first conference win of the season after being picked as one of the top teams. Give me Colorado at home to put up a lot of points as the Pokes give up 34.1 per game which ranks them 118th in the nation. Colorado wins 37-21.
Kansas at Baylor - Despite all odds, Kansas has crawled back from the depths of the early season disasters to be 1 win away from a bowl game. Baylor stands in their way, and both teams have been playing their best football over the last 5 weeks. Dave Aranda has done enough to keep his job, but KU is primed for another big win. Give me the Jayhwaks behind another big performance from Devin Neal. KU 34, BU 28.
Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan - The winner of the Michigan directional rivalry gets to a bowl game, it's that simple. Both teams are on a losing streak they need to end and both offenses match up well. Turnovers are the key stat and Western Michigan owns that margin +5 to +1. Broncos win 27-24.
Arkansas at #21 Missouri - Mizzou doesn't have much of an arch rival like it did with Kansas or Nebraska from the Big XII days, but Arkansas could fit the bill well as a boarder war of sorts takes place. The Hogs have been very inconsistent this season but former Boise State QB, Taylen Green, has been very fun to watch. He's accounted for 20 total TDs this season and should give the Mizzou defense some headaches. The Tigers haven't impressed much in big games, but Brady Cook and company always tend to win where they're supposed to. Mizzou at home 24-17.
NC State at North Carolina - News about UNC not planning to return with Mack Brown broke earlier this week, but for now he's got a rivalry game to focus on against the Wolfpack. They've won 3 straight in this series despite the QB talent from the Tar Heels over the last few years. Neither team has done much to turn heads this season, but Junior RB Omarion Hampton for the Tar Heels is the real deal. He's racked up nearly 1,500 rushing yards along with 14 TDs on the ground. Look for him to carry this team to victory against their rival 36-28.
Rutgers at Michigan State - Sparty can get to a bowl game in year 1 under Jonathan Smith. The former Beaver is up for a big challenge with Greg Schiano and the Scarlet Knights coming to East Lansing. This should be a defensive grudge match, but I like Sparty to close it out at home. Michigan State goes bowling with a 26-21 victory.
Oklahoma at LSU - Oklahoma stunned everyone with a big upset against Alabama last week, and now travel to Death Valley to close out their first season in the SEC. It's certainly been a bumpy one, but the defensive performance against the Tide is likely to give OU fans lots of hope. For Tiger fans, there were a number of missed opportunities this year. A win at home to end the year would go a long way for Brian Kelly building momentum for next season, especially after losing a top recruit this past week. I'll take the Tigers in Death Valley to win 27-17.
TCU at Cincy - The Horned Frogs and Bearcats clash as Cincy looks for a bowl game bid. They've lost 4 straight and have been slipping a bit more in each game over the past few weeks. TCU technically still has a shot at the Big XII Championship game with a lot of help, but beating Cincy is step one. I need another TCU victory video, so Frogs win 31-24.
Thanks for reading my Rivalry Week predictions and enjoy your weekend full of college football!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando