Friday, November 29, 2024

Rivalry Week Predictions

      Welcome to Rivalry Week! As I've stated many times before, this is my absolute favorite weekend of the year. Tons of food with Thanksgiving, lots of time with family and friends, and most importantly... the best college football of the season! This weekend has a ton of great matchups that will certainly shake up the playoff picture. This post will have my predictions on all the best games this weekend and my key factors to victory for each team. As always, feel free to reach out or comment with any thoughts you have or questions about other games and college football news. Enjoy!


Week 13 Record: 15 - 7

Overall Record: 172 - 75


Rivalry Week Predictions:

Oregon State at #11 Boise State

     The Beavers mounted a fantastic comeback to knock off Wazzu in the 2-PAC Championship last weekend, but now have to get through the Playoff-bound Broncos to become bowl eligible. Boise State got some help from Memphis last night, knocking off Tulane, who was the next highest rated G5 team. The Broncos are holding onto a first round BYE at the moment though, and that would be huge for them to finish ahead of a major conference. As it should be, the focus of this game is Heisman-hopeful, RB Ashton Jeanty from Boise State. Oregon State ranks 103rd in the nation, giving up 178 yards per game on the ground, and Jeanty averages 187 on his own. I expect a Heisman statement performance from the Blue & Orange workshorse, so 225+ and 3 TDs to put Boise over the top with a 31-21 victory.


Minnesota at Wisconsin (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)

     The Gophers and Badgers meet for their annual clash of rodents as they go after Paul Bunyan's Axe. Wisconsin's defense was demolished by my Huskers last weekend, and suffered their 4th straight loss. They need a victory to get to a bowl game, but PJ Fleck and the ever-annoying Gophers are looking to prevent that. Minnesota has lost 5 games this season, 4 of which were 1-score games. The Gophers fell just short of knocking off Penn State last week, and limited the Nittany Lions to just over 25 minutes of TOP. Their defense ranks 11th in the nation and if they can perform a little better on third and fourth down, they could be sitting with a very different record. This game is always a tough one to pick because when Minnesota seems like the better team, they fall flat and let the Badgers command tempo. I'm not sure Wisconsin has it all figured out though, and I'll take Minnesota on the road 23-21.


Miami (OH) at Bowling Green

     If the Ohio Bobcats take care of business as expected against Ball State, the winner of this game goes to the MAC Championship to take on the Bobcats. Redhawk QB Brett Gabbert has been hot over the last 5 weeks, throwing 9 TDs to just 1 pick. Bowling Green has been one of the more consistent teams this season out of the MAC, and nearly knocked off Penn State and Texas A&M early in the season. Both teams match up well on the stat sheet, so this should be a great game to watch to start the day. I said the Redhawks were the team to beat in the MAC this season, so I'll stick with that claim and say they win a close one on the road. Redhawks 33, Falcons 28.


Mississippi State at #14 Ole Miss (The Egg Bowl)

     The Rebels likely lost their spot in the playoff thanks to Florida last week, and also gave up their spot in the SEC Championship. Mississippi State is just looking for a conference win this season as they finish up a year to forget in the Grove. Obviously, they would love nothing more than to knock off the Rebels another notch and claiming another victory in Oxford. Unfortunately, I don't think they'll have the offensive firepower to keep up with Ole Miss, and the Rebels should runaway with this one fairly early. Jaxon Dart should have a fun senior day as the Rebels win 38-21.


Georgia Tech at #7 Georgia (Clean, Old Fashioned Hate)

     After watching everyone around them in the SEC lose last week, Georgia now sits squarely back in the Conference Title picture. They end their season with the annual bout with Georgia Tech for some Clean, Old Fashioned Hate. The Ramblin' Wreck have been upset-minded all season long, and knocking their rival down to finish the season is always a little bit sweeter. They will be focused on ball control and grinding it out with the run game. Their 2 QB system with Haynes King and Aaron Philo has been interesting to watch, but Georgia's defense is always a tough task. They rank 15th in total defense and average nearly 3 sacks per game. The Yellow Jackets have only given up 5 sacks all season, so the push up front and protection is the matchup to watch in this one. I'll say the talent wins out with Georgia, but this could be a close one for a while. Bulldogs win 27-17.


Michigan at #2 Ohio State (The Game)

     The Buckeyes have lost 3 straight to the Wolverines, including when Sherrone Moore was coaching last season in place of the suspended Jim Harbaugh. Michigan looks very different under Moore as full-time head coach this season, and their QB struggles have led to a frustrating 6-5 season. They just bought out at top QB Recruit in Bryce Underwood from LSU, so next season has some hype. However, there's always hype around The Game, and if Michigan can complete a 4 year sweep, they'll knock the Buckeyes out of the BIG 10 Championship. Ohio State seems set to get a rematch against the Ducks, and started flexing their defensive muscles a bit more against Indiana last week with a tremendous amount of blitzing. Michigan can still run the ball, and have plenty of their own playmakers on defense, but if Ryan Day loses this game, they'll be coming for him in Columbus. Buckeyes with a statement ahead of the BIG 10 Championship 37-17.


#8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt

     The Vols are securely in the playoffs if they can beat Vanderbilt on the road. They won't get to Atlanta for the SEC Championship, but they can sit in the bracket and watch chaos fall around them. However, Diego Pavia may have other ideas. UT has dominated this series over the last 5 years, but Vanderbilt is ready to change the script. Both teams love to force turnovers and are sitting at +6 on the season. Both QBs take good care of the ball, so any mistakes will be extra costly in this one. Most importantly, keep your eyes on #6, Dylan Sampson. The Tennessee running back has 22 rushing TDs on the nation and averages 5.7 yards per game. If Vandy can't contain him, they won't have a chance to win. Give me the Vols behind a big day from Sampson to win 28-21. Would love another Vandy upset story for more chaos, but I think Tennessee fends them off.


#15 South Carolina at #12 Clemson (The Palmetto Bowl)

     With enough chaos, this game could be considered a playoff elimination game as both teams sit right on the edge of playoff consideration. Clemson is currently bumped out of the bracket despite their #12 ranking as a Big XII team has to get in from the championship, but teams ahead of them could lose, giving the Tigers a good shot to sneak in. South Carolina has been close but not quite over the hump this season, upsetting A&M a few weeks ago, but falling short against LSU and Alabama. They are lead by the QB/RB duo of LaNorris Sellers and Raheim (Rocket) Sanders. The two of them have accounted for 33 TDs this season and have been a headache for all opposing defenses. Clemson hasn't been tested much outside of the Georgia stomping and Louisville upset, so in a close game I lean toward the Gamecocks. South Carolina ranks 12th with 31 plays of 30+ yards, and Clemson ranks 75th with 22 plays of 30+ yards given up. Gamecocks upset the Tigers in Death Valley with big plays 36-28.


West Virginia at Texas Tech

     Somehow, both of these teams are still in the mix for the Big XII Championship with a little help. Obviously the winner of this game is the only one with a chance after the clock hits 0:00, but a classic shootout should be in store. Texas Tech has found a way to both win and lose close games in crazy ways, it's been up and down all season. West Virginia typically has either been in command or out of sorts. Much like the entirety of the Big XII, it's been a roller coaster all season long. I'll take the Red Raiders at home as the Mountaineers have a -4 turnover margin. Wreck 'Em for a 36-31 victory.


#5 Notre Dame at USC (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh)

     The switch to Jayden Maiava has proven to be the right choice for the Trojans as they've won 2 straight behind the UNLV transfer. Their offense has taken a step in the right direction and his ability to evade defenders in the pocket has been incredible to watch. Notre Dame is looking to host a Playoff game and will lean on their rushing attack to do so. Jeremiyah Love has 14 TDs on the ground this season and averages 7 yards per carry. I think USC's offense will give the Irish more headaches than they've experienced for most of the year, but won't have enough to finish the job. Notre Dame has given up just 1 of these games since 2016, but that was two years ago the last time they were in LA. Irish 34, Trojans 21.


#6 Miami at Syracuse

     The Hurricanes win and they're in to the ACC Championship against SMU. If they lose, Clemson will take their spot and have a shot at a first round BYE. Miami was upset by the ground and pound strategy from the Ramblin' Wreck a couple of weeks ago, and now travel up to the dome to take on the mighty Orange and the rocket arm of Kyle McCord. The Orange gunslinger leads the nation with 3,946 yards passing, followed closely by Cam Ward from the Hurricanes at 3,774. With the two best passing attacks in the nation ready to light it up, we look to the pass rush and pass defense. Miami does rank higher in both, but if the 'Cuse keep it close there could be some chaos. I think Miami is a fun matchup for SMU though, and the best chance for the ACC to get 2 teams into the playoffs. Maimi hangs on in a tough road environment 37-31.


Cal at #9 SMU

     I'm happy for the Golden Bears and reaching a bowl game after their comeback win against Stanford, but now they're up against my adopted favorite team of the season in SMU. The Pony Express is alive and well in Dallas, and this team is playoff bound with a chance for first round BYE as they await their ACC Championship Game opponent. QB Kevin Jennings is one of my Heisman favorites for next year and he has this offense rolling. The Mustangs are averaging just under both 450 yards per game and 40 points per game. I expect to see similar numbers today as they win 38-17 against Cal for another historic Atlantic Coast Conference battle... Pony Up!


Auburn at #13 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)

     Alabama was absolutely crushed by Oklahoma's defense last week, mustering just 234 total yards and 3 points. The Sooners picked off Jalen Milroe 3 times, and once for a TD of their own. Auburn out lasted A&M in Overtime after giving up a 21-7 halftime lead. The Tigers can make a bowl game with an upset win against Alabama, and would certainly have the pleasure of knocking the Tide out of the playoff picture. They're on the outside looking in right now, but teams will drop as we finish rivalry week and head to the conference championships. Luckily for Kalen Deboer, he gets the first Iron Bowl on his home turf. Hugh Freeze will have something special cooked up for this, and I expect Jarquez Hunter to continue his success on the ground for the Tigers. I want this upset, but I don't think Jalen Milroe will have another 3 interception game, especially at home. Tide end up rolling to a 34-24 victory.


#16 Arizona State at Arizona (Duel in the Desert: Battle for the Territorial Cup)

     Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils are atop the Big XII Conference, needing a victory over their in-state rivals to go to Arlington for the Championship. They were picked last this season and now are 1 win away from the conference title game, a very impressive turnaround for Dillingham and his staff. Arizona was gutted when Jedd Fisch left for Washington, but the talent was still around the roster with Noah Fafita and Tetairoa McMillan. The two of them have been good this year, but the team has a whole couldn't muster much defense to help them. Keeping their arch rival from a championship though, there's nothing sweeter than that. I like Arizona to start hot, but the QB play of Sam Leavitt will prevail the Sun Devils in the end. Arizona State somehow gives themselves a shot at a first round BYE with a win for the Territorial Cup. Sun Devils 33, Wildcats 27.


Purdue at #10 Indiana (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)

     Apart from their first quarter performance, Indiana was not much of a factor against Ohio State and really struggled against the blitz. It's been a terrible season for Troy Walters and the Boilermakers, but that Old Oaken Bucket is up for grabs, and Purdue may try to replicate the Buckeyes blitzing. I think we all expect Indiana to bounce back quickly and hold their playoff spot with another big performance against the Boilermakers. This is one of College Football's oldest rivalries and trophies, and the Boilermakers have won 5 out of the last 6. Hoosiers get their first Oaken Bucket victory at home since 2016 with a 35-14 win over the derailed trains.


Florida at Florida State (Sunshine Showdown)

     I don't think any college football analyst could've predicted the records of these two teams as they meet for their annual rivalry, but here we are at the end of the season with Florida needing a victory over the 2-9 Seminoles to get to a bowl game. FSU has been a complete disaster this season and that's about the nicest thing you can say. The Gators have come alive in the back half of the season and rising star DJ Lagway is starting to show flashes of what this team could do in the SEC next season. They've got back-to-back victories over LSU and Ole Miss, effectively knocking both of them out of the playoffs. They hung around with both Tennessee and Georgia, so look for them to put a CHOMP on Florida State. Gators win 31-14.


Washington at #1 Oregon (Cascade Clash)

     Due to conference realignment, this rivalry has been moved to the end of the season as the Apple Cup and Civil War are played as non-conference games. This may be one of the few benefits of the new rivalry week, because this game is always electric. Washington owned the series last season wining in both the regular season and the PAC-12 Championship. Kalen Deboer is now at Alabama, but I highly doubt Dan Lanning and the Ducks have forgotten how last season went. The Dubs have won the last 3, all by 3 points a piece. Jedd Fisch will be a good coach with that program, and they've shown some flashes so far this season, but Oregon is too much to handle. The Ducks are coming off a BYE and already have their spot in the BIG 10 Championship. Washington can hang around if they convert some third downs, but they rank 98th in conversion and the Ducks rank 12th in allowing third down conversions. S'co Ducks as they make a statement against their rivals 34-14.


#3 Texas at #20 Texas A&M (Lone Star Showdown)

     The biggest matchup of the weekend restarts an old rivalry between Texas A&M and Texas. The Longhorns pulled out a of Aggieland with a last second field goal back in 2011, and apart from some baseball drama earlier this summer, neither team has done much to acknowledge the other exists. Texas needs a win to go to the SEC title game in their first season as a member, but the Aggies could spoil it all with a win at home. A&M dropped the ball (literally) in a 4 OT thriller against Auburn last week, and now play host to their bitter rivals with playoff opportunities on the line. This is what college football is all about and this is the chaos we need. Texas QB Quinn Ewers suffered an ankle injury against Kentucky, so it's likely Arch Manning will get the start. No bigger stage than Kyle Field at night in late November with a conference championship bid on the line, so if he's able to perform the legend of his college career will already be written. Throw out the stats and just play some ball, this game will be rocking. I've been thinking about this game all year and I just have that gut feeling about A&M hosting their most hated rival for the first time in 13 years with a chance to destroy everything. Let chaos reign and the Aggies beat Texas at home 31-30. Gig 'Em.


#24 Kansas State at #18 Iowa State (Farmaggedon)

     This game was originally looked at to be an elimination game of who would go to the Big XII Championship, and we actually did end up here! The Big XII has been more chaotic than we imagined, but both teams have a shot at the championship with some help. Step 1 is always to beat the rival though, and after the Cyclones ran away with this one in the snow last year, racking up 258 rushing yards, I expect K-State to try and load the box a bit more. Unfortunately for them, Rocco Becht is the true x-factor and he's looking to repeat from last year. Both teams have slipped late in 1-score games, but I like Becht to have a big night and get the Cyclones to Arlington. There's a lot of shakeups that need to happen in the Big XII, but I'll take Iowa State to win Farmaggedon 27-21.


Virginia at Virginia Tech (Commonwealth Clash: Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)

     The winner of this game gets to go bowling, so there's a little extra fuel in the fire for the Commonwealth Clash. Virginia Tech had a lot of hype coming into the season and I thought they had a chance to be one of the teams in the mix for the ACC Championship. They've been playing some Nebraska-type football as 5 of their 6 losses are by just 1 score. Virginia has been great against the spread this season, but have failed to do much beyond that. I'll take the Hokies behind a big performance from Senior RB Bhayshul Tuten who has 13 TDs on the ground this season and is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Virginia has been run over, around and through quite a bit the last couple weeks. Virginia Tech wins 30-24 because the Cavs love to cover.


Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game: Battle for the Heroes Trophy)

     The bowl streak is broken and the Huskers have confidence going into the Heroes game for the first time since my freshman year of college in 2014. The offense looks so much smoother under Dana Holgersen and if Emmett Johnson can have half the day he did against Wisconsin, I like the points the Huskers can put up. Iowa's defense is still one of the best in the conference, giving up just 311 yards per game and 17.7 points on average, but there are holes in the armor. Most importantly, the Huskers have lots of weapons to take advantage with. As mentioned yesterday, I love the tight end changes and the blocking they provide on the edge. Dylan Raiola is making better reads with easier route combinations, allowing his playmakers to get the ball earlier and do something with it. Defensively, there is concern in facing Caleb Johnson. The Hawkeye running back has nearly 1,500 yards with 21 TDs on the ground this season, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Luckily, they don't have anyone to play QB, so if the Blackshirts can load the box, tackle low and force Iowa to pass this could be a big day. It almost always comes down to the wire between these two teams, and a late night November game will be true BIG 10, midwest football with a high of 13 degrees. Give me the Huskers with an old-school Blackshirt performance to win 23-14. Emmett Johnson with another big day and the Huskers reach my 7-5 record prediction for the season.


#1 Nebraska at #4 Penn State (Volleyball)

     The Huskers have been demolishing top ranked opponents all year and have their sights set on an outright BIG 10 Championship with a win tonight. Then they're on a revenge path for the Natty and I don't think anything is going to stop this team. They sweep Penn State 3-0 today and show why they're the true #1 Volleyball Team in the nation. GO BIG RED!


Quick Hit Predictions:

Oklahoma State at #25 Colorado - The Buffs need some help but could still find a way into the Big XII Championship despite their loss last week. Oklahoma State is still looking for its first conference win of the season after being picked as one of the top teams. Give me Colorado at home to put up a lot of points as the Pokes give up 34.1 per game which ranks them 118th in the nation. Colorado wins 37-21.

Kansas at Baylor - Despite all odds, Kansas has crawled back from the depths of the early season disasters to be 1 win away from a bowl game. Baylor stands in their way, and both teams have been playing their best football over the last 5 weeks. Dave Aranda has done enough to keep his job, but KU is primed for another big win. Give me the Jayhwaks behind another big performance from Devin Neal. KU 34, BU 28.

Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan - The winner of the Michigan directional rivalry gets to a bowl game, it's that simple. Both teams are on a losing streak they need to end and both offenses match up well. Turnovers are the key stat and Western Michigan owns that margin +5 to +1. Broncos win 27-24.

Arkansas at #21 Missouri - Mizzou doesn't have much of an arch rival like it did with Kansas or Nebraska from the Big XII days, but Arkansas could fit the bill well as a boarder war of sorts takes place. The Hogs have been very inconsistent this season but former Boise State QB, Taylen Green, has been very fun to watch. He's accounted for 20 total TDs this season and should give the Mizzou defense some headaches. The Tigers haven't impressed much in big games, but Brady Cook and company always tend to win where they're supposed to. Mizzou at home 24-17.

NC State at North Carolina - News about UNC not planning to return with Mack Brown broke earlier this week, but for now he's got a rivalry game to focus on against the Wolfpack. They've won 3 straight in this series despite the QB talent from the Tar Heels over the last few years. Neither team has done much to turn heads this season, but Junior RB Omarion Hampton for the Tar Heels is the real deal. He's racked up nearly 1,500 rushing yards along with 14 TDs on the ground. Look for him to carry this team to victory against their rival 36-28.

Rutgers at Michigan State - Sparty can get to a bowl game in year 1 under Jonathan Smith. The former Beaver is up for a big challenge with Greg Schiano and the Scarlet Knights coming to East Lansing. This should be a defensive grudge match, but I like Sparty to close it out at home. Michigan State goes bowling with a 26-21 victory.

Oklahoma at LSU - Oklahoma stunned everyone with a big upset against Alabama last week, and now travel to Death Valley to close out their first season in the SEC. It's certainly been a bumpy one, but the defensive performance against the Tide is likely to give OU fans lots of hope. For Tiger fans, there were a number of missed opportunities this year. A win at home to end the year would go a long way for Brian Kelly building momentum for next season, especially after losing a top recruit this past week. I'll take the Tigers in Death Valley to win 27-17.

TCU at Cincy - The Horned Frogs and Bearcats clash as Cincy looks for a bowl game bid. They've lost 4 straight and have been slipping a bit more in each game over the past few weeks. TCU technically still has a shot at the Big XII Championship game with a lot of help, but beating Cincy is step one. I need another TCU victory video, so Frogs win 31-24.


Thanks for reading my Rivalry Week predictions and enjoy your weekend full of college football!






#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Bowl Bound Huskers

      Happy Thanksgiving Football Fans! I apologize on the delay for this post, but I figured it would be a good read as you feast on your turkey and watch a full slate of Football. For the first time since my Junior year at Nebraska, the Huskers are going to a BOWL GAME! A fantastic win over the Badgers at home broke so many bad streaks for the Huskers, and I'll talk about all of them right here. This post will have a full analysis of the game broken down into my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories along with my thoughts and perspective of the new playoff rankings with so many teams tumbling last week. I'll sneak in a Memphis vs Tulane pick as well before my full prediction post tomorrow. Enjoy!


     The last time the Huskers bested the Badgers in a football game, I was standing in South Stadium as a junior in high school watching the game with my Grandpa and trying to figure out who had the ball due to the tiny numbers on the alternate uniforms. The Huskers had lost 10 straight games to the Badgers since that 2012 game in Memorial. However, after a dominating performance and nearly 500 yards of total offense, the Huskers have the Freedom Trophy in hand and are going to the post season. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below breaking down everything about the game.


GOOD - Emmett Johnson and Dana Holgersen. Honestly, I'll give a nod to the entire Husker team in this category to start because this team finally put a complete game together against a conference opponent. The Blackshirts gave up a couple big plays late, but for a good chunk of the game, Wisconsin could not do much and were stopped without points multiple times. John Hohl and the special teams units were fabulous and the offense put up 473 yards and 44 points. This is where I want to single out Dana Holgersen and Emmett Johnson. A special thank you to Holgersen for finally realizing (probably after reading my blog) that Emmett Johnson should be RB1 and a focal point of this offense. Johnson racked up 198 total yards on 22 touches throughout the game. He was electric, shifty and so much fun to watch for Husker fans as he made some moves we haven't seen since the Ameer Abdullah days here in Lincoln. Dylan Raiola played a very consistent game, completing 73.6% of his passes for 293 yards and a TD. He looked much smoother with the simpler playbook, and had some new playmakers to get involved as well. I very much appreciated the shift to Nate Boerkircher and Luke Lindenmeyer at Tight End. Lindenmeyer impressed immediately with his blocking, taking defenders 10 yards downfield off the line of scrimmage and I loved the route spacing and separation Boerkircher had on pass plays. There were a couple plays he could've hit big if Raiola had seen him, but that chemistry and connection will come with time. This was a great game to see from the offense as players are being put in positions to succeed and now making the most of it. One last tip of the cap to Dana Holgersen for making the changes needed.


EXPECTED - Emmett Johnson to shine and the Blackshirts to get burned a bit. Starting with a defense, I would not prove to be a good analyst if I only focused on what worked well. The Huskers did more than enough defensively to help their team win, but a few things stood out to me in this game. My first point of concern is the secondary play. Obviously, this unit has taken some hits with Tommie Hill being injured and playing a lot of younger guys in the back half, but they allowed Braedyn Locke to complete 67% of his passes for 292 yards with 3 TDs and 1 pick. This was his second highest yard total of his career and that is back-to-back weeks of the Huskers giving up 250+ through the air. I doubt Iowa will have that ability given their QB situation, but that wasn't my favorite performance from the Husker secondary. My second point of concern for the full defense is the amount of big plays given up. For the most part, they've limited that throughout the season, but gave up 5 different plays of 20+ yards including the 58 yard TD pass to Vinny Anthony II. Those big gashes often come at the wrong time when you're about to get an opposing offense off the field, so keeping things in front of them and being disciplined on assignments will cut that down. Over to Emmett Johnson, he gets a second shoutout for his performance, and he's in the EXPECTED category because this is exactly what I was waiting for him to do once he got the touches he deserves. This kid has some serious talent and if the Huskers can continue to open up lanes for him, he'll have a very big season in 2025.


BAD - The bad streaks are broken! Really the only thing "Bad" about this game is how long it took to happen. With their win over Wisconsin, the Huskers became Bowl Eligible for the first time since 2016. They beat the Badgers for the first time since 2012 (shoutout to Volleyball for also SWEEPING the Badgers on the season for the first time since 2012). The Huskers also secured their first November win since 2020 and the first in front of fans since I was jumping around in the snow against Michigan State in 2018. The Huskers were 0-9 in bowl clinching games prior to beating Wisconsin and Matt Rhule was 0-8 as the Husker HC. The team needed this win, the fans needed this win and College Football as a whole needed this win. The bad streaks are broken, now let's get back to true Husker Football form. GBR!


College Football Playoffs:

     Following a weekend full of upsets, we had quite the shake-up in the new CFB Playoff Rankings. All week we had to hear about how dominant the SEC would be over teams like Indiana and how the SEC should have no less than 5 or 6 teams in the playoffs because they would be favored by the Vegas odds in hypothetical matchups. As we learned quickly, hypotheticals don't mean much in College Football. While Indiana wasn't able to keep pace with the Buckeyes, Alabama was demolished by Oklahoma, Ole Miss couldn't move against Florida, Texas A&M was outlasted by Auburn, Colorado fumbled the bag against KU and BYU couldn't complete the comeback against Arizona State. This is why they play the game and this is why I'm pleased with how this playoff bracket is shaking out. Most importantly, my dark horse Mustangs are FINALLY getting the respect they deserve and have been moved into the #9 spot. They are in the ACC Championship and await either Miami or Clemson depending on if the Hurricanes can take care of business on the road against Syracuse. Other big movers are Clemson in the #12 ranking spot above Alabama, however Arizona State at #16 would jump the Tigers and knock them out of the playoffs as the highest ranked Big XII team right now. This is a good spot for Clemson though because you assume Miami or SMU would tumble following a loss in the ACC Championship if you don't make it yourself. Tennessee and Georgia are other big winner as they watched the very crowded SEC field filter itself out as they played the SEC classic cupcake game ahead of rivalry weekend. Both of them moved up 3 spots a piece and are sitting firmly in position for a playoff spot with limited worries apart from their arch rival screwing things up. The last note I'll give on the current playoff rankings is my displeasure with Texas and Penn State sitting up at #3 and #4 respectively. Like many of the analyst who cover the sport, I think resume should be a primary consideration factor when ranking teams. Texas and Penn State have horrendous resumes with no ranked wins and have done nothing to earn their high rankings. Do I think they're playoff caliber teams? Most likely, but they should be ranked lower with the risk of falling out if they lose a game. If A&M  and Ohio State win, neither of these teams will go to their conference championships, and they'll just sit around waiting to see who they host for a first round game at home despite having put in little work to achieve that status. Rivalry weekend always provides that extra dose of chaos, so hopefully we'll get some more shakeups this weekend.


Memphis at #17 Tulane

     Since this game is on Thanksgiving evening, I want to get my prediction in this post before I go through the full slate with tomorrow and Saturday. Army & Tulane are already set for the American Conference Championship, but if Boise State slips up, Tulane has a lot to play for with that highest ranked G5 Conference Champion getting into the playoffs. They're sitting at #17 right behind Arizona State who is currently the highest rated Big XII Conference team, meaning if Boise were to fall, they could potentially jump over the Broncos and be sitting in a position to go to the playoffs. Memphis would love nothing more than to ruin that after stumbling a couple of times earlier in the season, dashing their playoff hopes. The Tigers have enough firepower on offense to get it done, but defensively is where the struggles are. They rank 54th in total defense, allowing over 350 yards per game with more than 22 points on average. Now these aren't horrendous numbers, but when you consider they gave up 100 total points in their two losses on the season, things can get out of hand quickly. Tulane ranks 30th in total offense and is 4th in the nation with 40.5 points per game on average. There should be plenty of offense to watch between these two teams tonight, especially with two great RBs set to duel. I like Tulane to take care of business at home, but don't be surprised if things get close, Memphis has 4 wins in 1-score games and their 2 losses were both 1-score as well. Green Wave win the firework show 47-37.


Thanks for reading my reflections on the Husker's big win against Wisconsin and watch for my Rivalry Week Predictions tomorrow morning. Also a special shoutout to the Husker Football staff for welcoming myself and other High School Coaches for an appreciation lunch ahead of the game. Great experience and so glad they're working on building relationships with different High School coaches around the state. GO BIG RED!







#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, November 23, 2024

Week 13 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 13 Football Friends! Just two final weeks of the regular season remain as we draw closer to the first 12 team playoff, and the Huskers are still hunting for that elusive 6th win to get them bowl eligible. It's been a few weeks since I've done a reflection, so I'll give my thoughts on Nebraska's loss to USC and how things look for the final two games ahead of my Week 13 Predictions. There's a lot to shake out with the 12 team playoffs, so expect plenty of chaos these final weeks!


     With 4 straight losses, the Huskers sit at 5-5, still trying to make their first bowl game since 2016. Matt Rhule has shown he's been willing to make changes, bringing in ex-WVU and Houston Head Coach Dana Holgersen who quickly took over as the Offensive Coordinator, bumping out Marcus Satterfield. There were a few changes against USC, but nothing too surprising and ultimately the offense still didn't produce much. I've got my thoughts broken down into my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below.

GOOD - Ceyair Wright & Emmet Johnson. The ex-Trojan came back to Southern California and made his name well known early with the pick six to start off the game. Wright added 4 solo tackles to his contributions and did well in coverage. Emmet Johnson continues to make drive-sparking plays and runs with the most elusiveness out of any back. I would love to see him get more carries the last couple of games as he's been one of the few bright spots through this frustrating season.

EXPECTED - Simpler offense, but not much change. To his credit, Dana Holgersen had only been there about 2 weeks when we came in to the USC game as the Huskers OC. I didn't expect too many flashy things, but I am glad to have seen some change. Dylan seemed to be getting the ball out a lot quicker with receivers running short and quick routes to get open earlier in the play. There's still a decent amount of familiarity, but hopefully they can throw a few more wrinkles in this week.

BAD - Vibes. I'm not sure what mythical, seventh-dimensional demon I have to make a deal with to get Nebraska to a bowl game, but Vibes are BAD in Lincoln right now. The Huskers very easily could win these final two games and go bowling, but they could also lose their final two games. Holgersen holding the keys to the offense is likely a good thing, but the vibes around the team is not good. Winning cures all, and we're only asking for 1 more. The defense keeps getting gashed at the wrong time and even though they're in position to make the plays, it somehow always ends as a better result for the other team. I hope they get very aggressive in the last couple weeks, but something is still off with this team.


Week 12 Record: 14 - 4

Overall Record: 157 - 68


Week 13 Predictions:

#5 Indiana at #2 Ohio State

     The Buckeyes and the Hoosiers in top 5 battle is something College Football has never seen before. Indiana has more losses than any program in division 1 history, but don't tell that to HC Curt Cignetti. He's got this team cooking and have been demolishing everyone in their path. Ohio State's defense is stout and will make life difficult for Kurtis Rourke and company. However, the Hoosier defense will be doing the same against the Buckeyes. Indiana ranks 12th in the nation with 31 sacks on the year, and Ohio State has only given up 12, but does have some injuries on the offensive line. This would be one of the biggest upsets of the year, despite Indiana being ranked 5th. This would prove they are legit, and I would love to see them hosting a playoff game. Ohio State is always steady though, and traditionally know how to handle tough opponents at home. No matter what, this should be a great game to watch. To hell with it, it's College Football in late November, GIVE ME THE HOOSIERS! I think the defensive front dominates the line of scrimmage and Will Howard does not have a good day getting hit in the pocket. Indiana 27, Ohio State 21. PLAYOFF CHAOS!


#9 Ole Miss at Florida

     The Gators pulled a big upset at home last week against LSU despite being more than doubled on time of possession. DJ Lagway is proving that this team has a lot of potential with him under center in the future, but they are still looking to play spoiler today. The Rebels are still in the mix for an SEC Championship, and some big wins to finish the season could really boost their Playoff image. I expect the Rebels to put up a lot of points in the last couple of weeks, and make a statement against the Gators. Rebels walk out of the Swamp with a 38-20 victory.


#13 SMU at Virginia

     My dark horse Mustangs continue to be disrespected by the Playoff Committee despite continuing their roll through ACC competition. Head Coach Rhett Lashlee just got a contract extension, but one final road game could prove to be a tricky test ahead of their finale against Cal at home. Virginia has covered the spread more often than not this season, and an upset could be brewing. I picked SMU to make the playoffs and to win the ACC. The Pony Express is back in College Football and this team keeps showing it today. SMU 31, Virginia 17.


Kentucky at #3 Texas

     Mark Stoops and the Wildcats have been headaches for top 10 teams all season long: Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee were all tight games. Both the Rebels and Vols were hosting Kentucky, but still had issues. Texas cannot overlook Kentucky and peek ahead to Texas A&M. Despite their 4-6 record, the Wildcats rank 29th in total defense, so don't expect Texas to put up 40+. If Kentucky wants to pull the upset today, Senior RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye needs to have a big night. He only has 505 yards with 5 TDs on the season, but averages 5 yards per carry and catches the ball well out of the backfield. I think Texas will handle business and set up a massive game for the Lone Star Showdown next week, but don't be surprised if Kentucky hangs around. Hook 'Em for 34-21.


#4 Penn State at Minnesota

     The Nittany Lions have rarely been tested this season outside of USC and Ohio State, but the upset minded Gophers coming off a BYE in Minneapolis is a great late season spot to spoil the Penn State season. Oddly enough, if you compare these teams, they match up well in a lot of key stats. Total Defense: Penn State #5, Minnesota #11. 3rd Down Conversion: Penn State #5, Minnesota #18. However, one key stat has a big gap, Turnover Margin: Minnesota #6, Penn State #45. The Gophers have a +12 margin while the Nittany Lions have just +3. The Gopher defense can certainly slow down opponents, and if you start giving up possessions, this could be a very under the radar upset. Penn State doesn't slip in these games, and it might be closer than they want, but I like them to finish with a 24-17 victory.


#14 BYU at #21 Arizona State

     The Cougars were suffocated by the Jayhawk defense last week at home. Nothing against Kansas, but while I was watching that game, I felt like BYU lost it more on their own. Weird things happened in that game, and that might be the little slip up they needed. Arizona State is in that Big XII mix, and a win would put them in prime position to get to the championship game. Cam Skattebo is the key factor to watch because this do-it-all back gives opposing defense nightmares. He's accounted for more than 1,500 total yards and 13 TDs on the year. The Cougar defense gave up just 73 yards on the ground against Kansas though, and I think Jake Retzlaff and the offense bounce back for a big afternoon. Don't toss the Cougars aside after that one loss, this team is still one to watch in the Big XII. Cougars bounce back with a statement 31-21.


#16 Colorado at Kansas

     Kansas has back-to-back upsets against ranked teams, will they get a third? They're hosting the Prime Time Buffs in what sets up for an old school Big XII shootout between old foes. Former Husker QB Turner Gill was leading the Jayhawks last time these two teams met in 2010 before Colorado left the Big XII, and that one ended in a 52-45 barn burner for the Jayhawks. This could be a similar style of game as both teams have playmakers who can put up points. KU QB Jaylon Daniels has been red hot with 8 passing TDs and just 2 picks in the last 5 games. He's added another 4 TDs on the ground and has shown flashes of his 2022 self. Devin Neal has looked more like himself as well, racking up 12 TDs on the season and averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Colorado's rush defense has improved and currently ranks 57th. They will be tested with the option game in this one. Offensively, Shedeur Sanders needs to get the ball out of his hands quickly as KU pressured Retzlaff a lot last week. I would expect a lot of big plays and a high-scoring affair. The Buffs have been able to pull away late in recent games, but that might not happen this time. We talked all season about chaos in the Big XII but now everyone is getting too comfortable. ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK with the upset in Arrowhead stadium. Kansas 42, Colorado 38.


Stanford at Cal (The Big Game)

     Now one of the most historic ACC rivalries, The Cardinal and Golden Bears meet for the 118th time. Stanford owns the series 60-47-10 all time, but the Golden Bears are on a 3-game win streak. Fernando Mendoza is very fun to watch with the Cal offense, throwing for just under 2,800 yards with 13 TDs and 6 picks so far. He's also added another 2 TDs on the ground. Stanford pulled a big upset against the Cardinals of Louisville last week and are looking to do the same to their arch rivals. I think the Golden Bears get the victory as they win 34-28 at home.


#19 Army vs #6 Notre Dame

     The Black Knights are looking to go 10-0 for the first time in program history and are looking to take down Notre Dame. The Irish are looking for another boost to their resume for the playoffs and avoid another upset. Army can cause a lot of headaches with their hybrid triple offense offense with a hint of spread/air raid. Bryson Daily the Army QB leads the 44th ranked total offense with 28 total TDs. Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard has been spinning it as of late, throwing for 200+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games with 9 TDs and just 2 picks. The Black Knights need to force some turnovers if they want to win this game, and dominate the time of possession to keep Notre Dame off the field. I think Army will keep things close, but Notre Dame hands them their first loss of the season. Irish 28, Army 17.


Washington State at Oregon State (2-PAC Championship)

     Unfortunately they won't be handing out a championship trophy between Wazzu and Oregon State, but for all College Football Fans, this is the 2-PAC Championship. The two PAC-12 leftovers meet for the first time since being abandoned, and the Beavers have been spiraling. They've lost 5 straight games, most recently being shutout 28-0 by a very not good Air Force team. Wazzu suffered their second loss of the season on the road at New Mexico last week in an offensive shootout. Sophomore QB John Mateer is the key player to watch in this one as he does everything for the Cougars. He's thrown for 2,707 yards with 26 TDs and 6 picks to go along with his 695 rushing yards and 12 TDs. Another big day for him and Wazzu wins the 2-PAC Championship 38-14.


#7 Alabama at Oklahoma

     Before the season I predicted that Oklahoma would pull an upset on either Alabama or LSU to keep them out of the playoffs. The Tigers are already out thanks to Alabama, so will my prediction be for the Sooners to upset the Tide? The Sooners rank 24th in total defense despite their 5-5 record and give up just an average of 21.9 points per game. Unfortunately, their offense ranks 118th in total offense and 90th in scoring, averaging just over 25 points per game. Bama has been rolling teams as of late, and the hostile environments hasn't seem to phase them. If OU can force some turnovers, this could get interesting, but I think we'll see the Tide Roll to a 30-10 victory.


#15 Texas A&M at Auburn

     A slip of the tongue had Mike Elko focused on Texas, but they have a night game in Jordan-Hare stadium before the Lone Star Showdown. Auburn never needs much for fuel of their upsets, but it certainly never hurts. The Tigers rank 14th in total defense and allow just 18.7 points per game. Texas A&M has had some ups and downs on offense, so turnovers will be key in this one. Both Marcel Reed and Peyton Thorne do a fairly good job of keeping ahold of the rock, so whoever can force turnovers, that could be the deciding factor. Separate of holding on to the rock, my key factor is Senior RB Jarquez Hunter for the Tigers. He's rushed for 1,015 yards with 5 TDs on the season, and averages 7.0 yards per carry. In their loss against South Carolina, the Aggies gave up 286 yards rushing. Auburn needs to run the ball and they can pull the upset. If they do, and Texas A&M can beat Texas next week, we will have 6 SEC teams with the same conference record. Bring on the CHAOS and give me Auburn for an upset under the lights! Tigers 30, Aggies 23.


USC at UCLA (Battle for LA)

     The Trojans and Bruins clash for the Battle of LA in a BIG 10 Battle out west. USC turned things around with QB Jayden Maiava stepping in against my Huskers. UCLA couldn't quite hang on against Washington, but they have been very impressive in the back half of the season. The Bruins rank 8th in rush defense, so Jayden Maiava needs to be smart with his throws. He had some dangerous ones against Nebraska, but lucky for him, the blackshirts couldn't capitalize. This will be a close one, but I think Maiava is the difference maker, give me the Trojans to pick up the victory across town. Fight On! USC beats UCLA 27-24.


Wisconsin at Nebraska (Battle for the Freedom Trophy)

     I was in the stands back in 2012 when Nebraska last beat Wisconsin, and Dylan Raiola was in the first grade. The Huskers have not been able to crack the Badger code, and with 1 win standing between the Huskers and bowl eligibility, it will again come down to the Huskers beating a rival. Either the Badgers this week or the Hawkeyes next week. Both teams are in a bit of an odd place as Wisconsin has been with a 2nd string QB for most of the year, and just fired their OC after falling short against Oregon. Every single sign points to Nebraska taking advantage of the situation with a home and and winning that 6th game of the season for the first time since 2016. But this game never feels like the Huskers can keep ahold of it. The mistakes pile up and Wisconsin always seems to finish things off on the right foot. Converting on 3rd down is my key to this game. Nebraska ranks 48th with 42.9% and Wisconsin ranks 88th with 37.8%. Defensively, the Blackshirts hold teams to 37.0% and Wisconsin limits opponents to 38.0%. These numbers are all a bit too close for comfort, but the team that converts third down the best wins this game. Drives will be sustained and there won't be many points, so finishing in the redzone after a long drive is crucial. We have a decently warm day for late November in Lincoln, but this will be a classic BIG 10 defensive struggle. You all know my rule, first team to 20 wins the game. I'll be cheering for Nebraska as always, but until I see a change with this team I'm saying "On Wisconsin" for a 20-17 victory. Nebraska will have the lead late, but I have a bad feeling about an OC change actually working for another team late in the year. PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG HUSKERS!


Quick Hit Predictions:

#25 Illinois at Rutgers - Illini 30, Scarlet Knights 27.

Iowa at Maryland - Hawkeyes 17, Terps 13.

UConn at Syracuse - Orange 34, Huskies 21.

Sam Houston at Jacksonville State - Battle for top spot in Conference USA. Gamecocks 33, Bearkats 27.

Cincy at K-State - Wildcats at home 35-24.

Virginia Tech at Duke - Hokies get bowl eligible with a 37-31 win.

Vanderbilt at LSU - Tigers have fallen off the SEC Conference bid, but at home against Vandy should bounce back. Tigers beat the Commodores 27-21.

#22 Iowa State at Utah - Close game out in Salt Lake City, but the Utes don't have a plan on offense. Cyclones need this (and some help) for a Big XII Championship game birth. Cyclones 30, Utes 24.


Thank you for reading my Week 13 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday, we need some upsets and some CHAOS! GO BIG RED!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Week 12 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 12 and mid-November Football! Just a few weeks away from the end of the regular season and the Playoff race has one of the craziest set ups we've ever seen. This is where the upsets happen, and the best teams need to be careful of a stumble. I've got all the big games for you to watch today, so read on to my predictions and enjoy!


Week 11 Record: 11 - 7

Overall Record: 143 - 64


Week 12 Predictions:

#3 Texas at Arkansas

     An old Southwest Conference rivalry renews as the Longhorns travel to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs. Arkansas is upset-minded and already beat Tennessee at home earlier this season. Texas is looking smooth as they seemingly scored at will against Florida last week. Quinn Ewers threw for 333 yards and 5 TDs, and Arkansas ranks 58th in pass defense. Offensively, the Hogs need to play one of their best games and keep ahold of the ball. QB Taylen Green certainly has the talent, but he'll need the best game of his young career tonight to upset the Horns. Lots of opportunity for the Texas offense as they start to get hot, and I don't think the Hogs have enough to keep pace with the scoring. If they muck up this game it will get interesting, but I'll say Hook 'Em as they inch closer to that Lone Star Showdown. Texas 35, Arkansas 23.


Utah at #17 Colorado

     The Utes and Buffaloes have gone very different directions this season, and not in the way we all thought. Utah is on a 5-game losing streak and fell short of upsetting BYU at home in the Holy War last week. Colorado comes in with a very clear path to the playoff if they take care of business. Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State stand in their way, and despite all of those teams not living up to their 2024 expectations, they're more than capable of upsets. Utah's defense will cause some headaches as usual, but their offense is too much of a mess. It pains me, but Colorado inches closer to a playoff bit with a win on the road behind great play from Shedeur and Travis Hunter. Buffaloes win 23-17.


#25 Tulane at Navy

     The Green Wave can punch their ticket to the American Conference Championship against Army with a win over Navy today. The Midshipmen have fallen off quickly the last couple of weeks since getting ranked and then obliterated by Notre Dame. Tulane ranks 4th in the nation in scoring with 41.0 points per game. Navy has been able to control the clock better and hold teams to fewer points in recent weeks, but running with Tulane is tough. Give me the Green Wave with the ground game of Sophomore RB Makhi Hughes. He's got 1,209 yards and 13 TDs to his name with a 5.7 yard per carry average. He'll ground and pound Tulane to victory 30-21.


Boston College at #14 SMU

     The Ponies are alone atop the ACC after Miami's stumble last week. They're on their way to the ACC Championship with a potential Playoff BYE awaiting them, yet are still ranked OUTSIDE of the College Football Playoffs top 12. Their only loss is a 3-point defeat to unbeaten, #6 BYU, yet the disrespect continues. I'm all in with the ponies and despite Boston College switching QBs, I think the Pony Express is back and rolling like the 1980's. The Eagles are always a dangerous and upset type team in the ACC, but SMU has too much offense with Kevin Jennings (a future Heisman finalist next season). Pony Up as they win 38-21.


#22 LSU at Florida

     Both the Tigers and the Gators are coming off beat downs last week by the hands of Alabama and Texas. They're both in need of a win, and this battle in the swamp should be a fun one. Not sure if we'll see any shoe throws, but we will see the ball thrown quite a bit. The Tigers rank 7th in passing offense and Garrett Nussmeier should pass 3,000 passing yards on the season in this game and add to his 21 TDs. He does have 11 picks so far this season, 5 of them coming in their last two games against A&M and Alabama. Florida has 10 picks on the year, so look for them to force more mistakes by Nussmeier. I think LSU is a step ahead of Florida in terms of roster development, so I'll give them the edge, but this should be a closer game. Tigers beat the Gators 31-27.


#23 Missouri at #21 South Carolina

     The Tigers and the Gamecocks are sitting in the middle of the pack in the SEC, but oddly enough Missouri could still find themselves in the mix due to the chaos scenario of the SEC tiebreakers. The Tigers need to win out to be part of the conversation, and South Carolina has had a habit of not letting opponents walk out of Williams-Brice Stadium with a victory. They're on a 3-game win streak and nearly knocked off Bama back in October. Mizzou QB Brady Cook is a game-time decision, but South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers is ready to roll and he's coming off a game where he completed 70% of his passes for 238 and 2 TDs against Vanderbilt along with another 38 yards on the ground. He'll have another big day and the Gamecocks knock off the Tigers 33-24.


#13 Boise State at San Jose State

     The nation's leading rusher (Ashton Jeanty) and the nation's leading receiver (Nick Nash) lead their respective offenses in what should be a shootout in the Mountain West. Boise is the favorite to get the G5 Bid into the playoffs, but don't sleep on the Spartans. They should've been in the conference championship a year ago, but tie breakers kept them at home. They have work to do to get back there, but hosting Boise State is a big advantage. The Broncos road games are typically much closer, but I can't go against the Heisman Finalist of Ashton Jeanty. Broncos continue to roll as Jeanty runs wild again. Boise State 30, San Jose State 24.


Arizona State at #16 Kansas State

     The Sun Devils are very quietly sitting at 7-2 with a ranked opponent next on their schedule. They need some help before they're in the conversation for the Big XII Championship, but Kenny Dillingham's second season at the head spot in Tempe is going much better than anticipated. The running backs will be the feature of this game as Cam Skattebo and DJ Giddens lead their respective teams offensively. Both backs average around 6 yards per carry, and can catch well out of the backfield. That's a big help for their young QBs Sam Leavitt (FR) and Avery Johnson (SO), as they continue to develop in their first full season starting. I like K-State to bounce back after their BYE, but this should be a fun game to watch if you get the chance. Wildcats 35, Sun Devils 28.


#1 Oregon at Wisconsin

     The #1 Ducks travel to Camp Randall for a night game with the Badgers. Autzen Stadium is one of the loudest atmosphere in College Football, but Oregon has yet to experience what a rowdy bunch of Badgers can do when they start jumping around. Luke Fickell has been trying to find some rhythm in year 2 leading the Badgers, but it hasn't been the smoothest transition back into the BIG 10. They've beaten the teams they're supposed to, but have struggled against top tier opponents (and Iowa, they're not top tier, but they dominated). Oregon has been the smoothest looking team all season, especially at the line of scrimmage. They rank 33rd in rush defense and star RB Jordan James is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Dillon Gabriel gets all the hype (and it is deserved) for his nearly 3,000 passing yards with a 22:5 TD to INT ratio, but Jordan James is my X-factor every time Oregon plays. This guy grinds out all the first downs they need and protects the rock. That will be key in a BIG 10 grudge match, especially because Wisconsin loves to own the trenches. Oregon will find a new appreciation for the BIG 10 in this game, but I like the Ducks to flex their muscles and take over in the second half. Oregon continues to win 27-14.


#7 Tennessee at #12 Georgia

     The big game of the week takes place between the hedges as Georgia returns to Athens for a their first home game in 37 days. The Tennessee Volunteers are sitting atop the SEC and have a very clear path to the playoffs...if they beat Georgia. That means the "clearness" of that path is about as see through as mud. The Bulldogs are coming off a beat down in the rain by the Rebels, and are still struggling on offense. Carson Beck continues to throw interceptions and despite all the analysts making excuses for him, I TOLD Y'ALL! He is hurting this Georgia team and I'm not sure they can win much more with him. Their defense has a tough task with another high-powered offense coming in, this time with the ground game. Nothing taken away from Nico Iamaleava, but Dylan Sampson is the focal point of this offense. He's rushed for 1,129 yards with 20 TDs on the ground this season. Georgia ranks 21st against the run and a bounce back night game at home is just what they needed. I think Georgia takes care of business, plus that leads to more chaos with the SEC having so many teams tied atop the conference. I want Tennessee, but I want the chaos more, give me the DAWGS to win at home with defense. Georgia 31, Tennessee 20.


Nebraska at USC

     The weird vibes game is set for an afternoon kickoff out in Southern California. The Huskers and Trojans are both coming out of a BYE week and are expected to look very different when they take the field. Starting with my Huskers, Nebraska now has former WVU and Houston Head Coach, Dana Holgersen, calling the plays as the new OC. A mid-season OC change is always odd, but especially with just 3 weeks to go and when he was assisting at TCU earlier this year. Dylan Raiola hasn't practiced much due to the injury he suffered against UCLA, so we could be in for some Haarburg time as Husker Fans. From what I've heard from folks at practice, the playbook will be simplified and is running all through Holgersen. Hopefully there's a bit more effort to establish the run game, but I'm guessing anything new will be a refreshing feeling for Husker fans. Unfortunately USC made changes of their own, and that comes at the QB position. Miller Moss has been benched after the Trojan offense was lacking the typical explosiveness we've been accustomed to seeing from them. Former UNLV Rebel, Jayden Maiava is now in command and his rushing ability outside of the pocket is what scares me the most. Lincoln Riley is wanting his offense to look more like the Caleb Williams days, so a dual-threat QB like Maiava could be the key he's looking for. Nebraska does not fare well against QBs who run, so the Blackshirts will have their hands full with very little film on their opponent. I woke up with a bad feeling about this game and I'm just not sure a 2 week Offensive Coordinator will be enough for the Huskers to flip the script. Jayden Maiava leads the Trojans and they win at home 31-24. I really hope Holgersen can prove me wrong!


Quick Hit Predictions:

Cincy at Iowa State - Cyclones are spiraling in the wrong direction but turnovers doomed the Bearcats last week. Both teams need a rebound win, but I'll take the home team. ISU wins 35-27.

Kansas at #6 BYU - The Jayhawks were spoilers to Iowa State last week, but now travel to Provo to attempt and play spoiler again. BYU has so many dangerously close games, but I've got the Cougars staying unbeaten. BYU wins 38-28.

#20 Clemson at Pitt - Pitt QB Eli Holstein is out and that's about all you need to know. Clemson back to dominating lower level teams and they win 38-14.

Michigan State at Illinois - The Spartans have a favorable schedule to make a bowl game as Illinois is the toughest team left on their schedule and the only road game. Both teams are sitting on their losses from two weeks ago coming out of the BYE, so motivation is high. I like Altmeyer to play better than Chiles, so give me Illinois at home 27-21.

Baylor at West Virginia - Both teams are 1 win away from bowl eligibility, but the offenses are inconsistent. I'll take the Mountaineers to play well at home, but I do think Baylor gets bowl eligible to let Dave Aranda keep his job. WVU 34, Baylor 27.

Virginia at #8 Notre Dame - The Irish are just a few wins away from a playoff birth. A sneaky Virginia team stands in their way this week as the Cavs have pulled a couple of upsets but almost always cover the spread. If you're betting have them cover, but I've got the Irish winning 40-28.


Thanks for reading my Week 12 Predictions and GO BIG RED!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Week 11 Predictions

      November football never disappoints (apart from the Huskers), and I welcome you to Week 11 of College Football, the THICK of November football. Big time playoff elimination games are set up in the SEC today, but don't sleep on some of the other games around the country. I've got a full slate of predictions ready for you, so let's dive in!


Week 10 Record: 11 - 8

Overall Record: 132 - 57


Week 11 Predictions:

#4 Miami at Georgia Tech

     Last year, Mario Cristobal opted to run the ball instead of taking a knee and it resulted in a fumble and then a last second TD and victory for the Yellow Jackets. Unfortunately for Georgia Tech, star QB Haynes King is a game-time decision, so they may need to find a way to win without him. On the other side, Cam Ward is anything but injured and continues to dominate every opposing defense. His Heisman campaign will be on full display today as he looks to add to his 32 total touchdowns. It's hard to pick against the 'Canes when they're rolling so well. If Haynes King can play, there could be another scare on the road, but Miami keeps winning no matter what. Hurricanes win in Atlanta 34-21.


Florida at #5 Texas

     The Florida Gators have announced they are keeping Billy Napier and believe that he is moving the team in the right direction. If freshman QB DJ Lagway hadn't gotten injured late in the Georgia game, it could've been a different outcome. Unfortunately he's likely out for today's game against Texas, but their defense could still cause some headaches for Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns. This team is headed in the right direction for next year, and the first half could be similar to Georgia last week where it's closer than you think it should be. Texas has a path to roll into the playoffs and SEC title game with, but I don't think they're as dominant as advertised. Hook 'Em 38-21.


#23 Clemson at Virginia Tech

     The Tigers were stunned at home by the upset-minded Cardinals of Louisville last week, and now travel to Lane Stadium to take on the Hokies. If this was a night game, I would lean a lot harder to the side of Virginia Tech, but they've been inconsistent in finishing games. They fell to Syracuse in overtime last week, but prior to that were on a 3-game win streak. Clemson needs to get their train back on track as they're unlikely to make the College Football Playoff without some help. I expect them to run the ball with big Phil Mafah as the Hokies rank 83rd in rush defense. Clemson wins 28-14 on the road.


Michigan at #8 Indiana

     The defending national champions are two-score underdogs on the road at Indiana. Yes, you read that correctly. The Hoosiers are dominating all of College Football and ranked 8th in the first CFP Rankings. Michigan comes into Bloomington at 5-4 still looking for bowl eligibility. Their offense is very one-dimensional with the run game, so expect the Hoosier defense to load the box and force a lot of third and long situations. Combine that with star DB Will Johnson out again for the Wolverines, and Kurtis Rourke will light up the scoreboard. Hoosiers continue to roll and set up a big date with the Buckeyes in a couple of weeks. Curt Cignetti wins some more with a 31-14 victory.


#3 Georgia at #16 Ole Miss

     The Rebels were demolished in the spotlight a season ago 52-17 by the Bulldogs, but now host them in the Grove with a new and improved defense. Georgia has struggled with turnovers this season, primarily on the shoulders of Carson Beck. I voiced my concerns with him in the pre-season and he has thrown 11 picks already this season. The Landsharks own a +7 turnover margin, good enough for 19th in the nation. They also lead the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, demolishing opposing front lines. Combined with Jaxon Dart and the high-scoring offense, I think the Rebels pull the upset. Georgia's defense has struggled against big plays with 47 plays given up of 20+ yards and 24 plays given up of 30+ yards this season. Ole Miss needs this game to prove they are in fact new and improved, so give me the Rebels at home. Ole Miss 30, Georgia 27.


#20 Colorado at Texas Tech

     The Buffs have quietly worked their way back into the playoff spotlight as they sit in a tie for the second spot in the Big XII Conference. They have a tricky road trip to Lubbock with the upset-minded Red Raiders. Texas Tech took down the Cyclones on the road in the rain last week, primarily on the back of star RB Tahj Brooks. He rumbled for 122 yards and 1 game-winning TD last week and apart from Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, he's the only back in the country to rush for 100+ in each game this season. The Buffs have struggled with the run game at times this season, but their offensive firepower almost always has a response. I think this could be a shootout, but Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders are too much in the end. I don't love it, but Colorado has a path to the playoff and it continues with a win against the Red Raiders. I'd love to say Guns Up & Wreck 'Em, but the Buffs win 37-31 on the road.


Oklahoma at #24 Missouri

     An old Big XII game takes place in the SEC as Missouri and Oklahoma are set for battle at Faurot Field. The Sooners have some serious issues on offense, ranking 113th in Total Offense and 90th in Scoring Offense. They have been plagued by injuries as well, so putting up points won't be easy. Mizzou has fallen after a couple of rough games against A&M and Alabama. However, Brady Cook said he only has a few games left in a Tiger uniform, and I think he makes the most of them. Their offense is still explosive and I think they can outscore the abysmal offense of the Sooners. Tigers 33, Sooners 21.


Washington at #6 Penn State

     The Huskies were able to hold on for a big win at home over USC last week, but now travel to Happy Valley to take on the upset Nittany Lions. Penn State fell short despite multiple chances inside the 5 yard line against Ohio State, so I'm guessing they will be hungry to flex their muscles. Washington has a solid ground game with Jonah Coleman, rushing for 889 yards and 7 TDs so far this season. Traveling 3 time zones is never easy though, and I've got the Nittany Lions at home 31-14.


#9 BYU at Utah (Holy War - Battle for the Beehive Boot)

     Old rival meet again as members of the same conference since they were in the Mountain West back in 2010. The Utes have struggled this year, but rivalry games are where you need to throw the record out. Kyle Whittingham has 9 out of the last 10 in this series, but will likely be without Cam Rising again today. That leaves Issac Wilson to take on his older brother's former team at the helm. He's been okay, but their offense ranks just 105th in the nation for scoring with a little over 22 points per game. BYU has been electric this season, despite being picked as one of the bottom feeders in the Big XII. Junior QB Jake Retzlaff has taken over the spotlight, and leads the 24th best scoring offense to 35 points per game. He's thrown for more than 1,800 yards with 18 TDs to just 7 picks. He's also added more than 300 yards on the ground and 3 more TDs. Utah's defense is not the normal version of themselves, and I think Retzlaff will put on a show. Always a fun rivalry to watch, but give me the Cougars to win in Salt Lake City 34-24.


#11 Alabama at #15 LSU

     The game of the week takes place at night in Death Valley. One of the best venues in all of sports plays hosts to one of the best rivalries in college football. A playoff elimination game is set as the Tide Roll in to take on the Tigers. Alabama has shown vulnerabilities this season, and while the Tigers have a couple losses of their own, the air raid attack is deadly with Garrett Nussmeier. For Alabama, their defense needs to bring pressure early and often, but that will be difficult against LSU's veteran o-line. The Tigers have given up just 4 sacks all year, giving Nussmeier extra time. Offensively for the tide, Jalen Milroe needs to have one of the best games of his career tonight if they want to win. LSU's defense has been sitting on their loss to A&M for two weeks, studying the tendencies of mobiles Quarterbacks. They'll look to contain Milroe and force tough throws to keep the offense behind the sticks. Give me the Tigers at home at night! This will be a tough one, but GEAUX Tigers as they win 29-27.


Quick Hit Predictions:

West Virginia at Cincy - Could go either way, but WVU struggles when they get down early. Cincy jumps out quick and holds on for a 27-23 victory.

Syracuse at Boston College - Eagles have slipped, losing 3 straight, but are coming off a BYE and Syracuse is still a bit turnover prone. BC wins at home 28-17 with turnovers.

#25 Army at North Texas - With a big game against Notre Dame lurking in a couple of weeks, Army could be in danger with the Mean Green. However, they get star QB Bryson Daily back so give me the Black Knights 31-27.

Purdue at #2 Ohio State - This pick is for my friend Bill Kelly. The Boilermakers have pulled wild upsets before, but this is not the day. Ohio State 38, Purdue 10.

Virginia at #18 Pitt - The Panthers got WORKED by my dark horse Ponies down in Dallas, but now come home against Virginia. The Cavs pulled a few upsets earlier this year, but I'll take the Panthers in a 31-20 bounce back game.

#17 Iowa State at Kansas - Pre-season, this was marked as a game that would be defining the Big XII Conference race. However, KU has not done well this season and the Cyclones are coming off their upset loss at home to Texas Tech. Cyclones get right, but this could be a close game late. Cyclones win 30-20.

Minnesota at Rutgers - Gophers are rolling and Scarlet Knights are without star RB Kyle Monangai. Minnesota keeps winning 24-10.

South Carolina at Vanderbilt - The Gamecocks are coming off a big win at home upsetting Texas A&M, and most of the time Vandy is the perfect game to follow that in case of a hangover. Now, as Alabama found out, it's one of the worst. The Commodores play great defense and get the win at home 23-20.


Thanks for reading my Week 11 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Week 10 Predictions

      Happy Gameday! We've reached November Football and the Playoff race is wide open. This week only features two ranked vs. ranked matchups, but there's plenty of opportunity for chaos to strike. I'll cover all the big games to watch today but first I'll take a look back to the Huskers' loss in the Horseshoe to the Buckeyes last Saturday. I really did have some hope the Huskers would pull that one out, but unfortunately they fall victim yet again to a one-score loss. I've got a lot to cover, so let's dive in.


     The Huskers put the Buckeyes on upset alert for a while last week as they led 17-14 early in the 4th quarter. After being demolished by Indiana a week prior, most everyone on the planet (myself included) did not anticipate the Huskers being much of a factor outside of the first half at best. There's a lot of things to take away from this game, but I'll keep it broken down to my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below with my analysis.

GOOD - The Blackshirts and John Hohl. The Husker defense bounced back with a purpose last week, holding the Buckeyes to just 285 total yards with 11 first downs and 1/10 third down conversion rate. After being shredded in every way possible the week prior against Indiana, this was great to see from the Blackshirts unit. They completely stuffed the run game holding two of the best backs in the nation to a combined 64 yards. A couple of coverage busts ended up hurting them toward the end of the game, but holding one of the nation's best teams to just 21 points at home after giving up 56 the week before is a big confidence boost for the rest of the season. My other GOOD from last week was the kicking (yes, I said kicking) by John Hohl. Relatively unknown until the Ohio State game, Hohl connected on all 3 of his field goals including a long of 54 to close out the first half. The Husker kicking game has been abysmal for years, but maybe it's turning a corner with Hohl?


EXPECTED - Some good and bad with Raiola. Keep in mind, this kid has only played 8 games of D-1 college football. He's still learning a lot about diagnosing defenses mid-play to ensure correct reads and what best plays to check into at the line. I thought there were some very big growing moments with him, especially when diagnosing where to throw certain passes given the coverage, pressure and where the blitz came from. We also saw him break off a 38 yard run and scramble a couple of other times. Certainly not a number one strength, but if he can extend a few plays or drives with his legs, all the better for the Huskers. The interception on a potential game-winning drive is frustrating, and there's some clear communication issues with him and his receivers at various points of the game, but those will get ironed out with time.


BAD - Screen passes. I know Matt Rhule, Dylan Raiola and a number of others have addressed this issue saying it's not all on Satterfield, but I'm still going to beat the drum. Coaching in a very similar offense at the High School level, I know how valuable screen passes can be. They build confidence for your QB and receivers with easy completions and can get you quick yards to keep the chains in manageable situations. HOWEVER, if you cannot block the screens, they are disasters waiting to happen. We spent a very significant portion of our individual time with my wideouts at Standing Bear on how to properly block each screen play and repped it over and over. I'm sure that's the case with the Huskers, but perimeter blocking is still a glaring issue for this offense. Not only in the screen game but also in the run game. The wide receiver blocking needs to be addressed immediately and I'm happy to come in and provide my expertise because that was one of my favorite things to do as a wide out. Seeing as the Huskers likely won't inquire about my assistance, I'll simply watch and observe, but please limit the screen passes until the perimeter blocking is at least at a mediocre level.


Week 9 Record: 20 - 2

Overall Record: 121 - 49


Week 10 Predictions:

#4 Ohio State at #3 Penn State

     The biggest game of the day kicks off at high noon as the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions square off in Happy Valley. It's a bit sad this isn't a night game with the White Out scene in Happy Valley, but regardless, we've got a top 5 showdown between two teams that need a statement win. Ohio State has some question marks after my Huskers stifled their star-studded offense, but they always seem to find away against Penn State. James Franklin has always talked about needing his team to level up in order to beat the Buckeyes, so now's the time to see if the work has been done. Penn State needs to study the Nebraska film closely and shut down the run early. This will open up more blitz and pass rush opportunities against Will Howard. Howard was twice last week despite his ability to scramble. Offensively the Buckeyes will look to get out on the edge, either with their RBs or talented wideouts on screens. They block the perimeter much better than the Huskers, so those plays actually go for a gain and sometimes get broken for big yards. Penn State's best offensive weapon comes in the form of a 6'6 Senior Tight End, Tyler Warren. Warren will line up in about every position on offense, including the backfield, so Ohio State needs to know where he is on every play. Both Ryan Day and James Franklin need this win to change the narrative about themselves, but only one can make that happen today. Penn State has been solid all season, and will be again today. However, I think the Buckeyes take this one 27-21.


Duke at #5 Miami

     Despite 6 turnovers from SMU, the Blue Devils couldn't knock off the Ponies at home, falling 28-27 in Overtime after a failed 2-point conversion. Now Manny Diaz has a road trip to Miami to take on his former team. The ex-Hurricane Coach has Duke at 6-2 in his first season as the head man, and knocking off his former team currently ranked at #5 would be quite the storyline. For me, it's a QB battle to watch in this one as Maalik Murphy and Cam Ward lead the respective offenses, and both of their dual threat ability has been problematic for opposing teams. Ward is a Heiman finalist hopeful with nearly 2,800 yards passing to go with 24 TDs and just 5 picks. He's added another 3 TDs on the ground and his scrambling ability and avoidance of sacks in the pocket is uncanny. Maalik Murphy has racked up nearly 1,800 yards with 17 TDs and 5 picks. He'll need some help up front because Miami loves to rush the passer and has 26 sacks on the season. I'll take the Hurricanes as they've been rolling along through ACC conference play, but Duke could keep things interesting if they learn how to get some points out of turnovers. Miami wins 34-17 over the Blue Devils.


#19 Ole Miss at Arkansas

     Despite a couple of conference losses, Ole Miss still has an outside shot at a playoff bid if they can keep things from going off the rails any more. A road win at Arkansas is needed as they host Georgia next week. Arkansas is one win away from a bowl game and hung nearly 60 on Mississippi State last week. The Hogs are a very capable and deadly team, but struggle to find consistency in their performances week to week. The Rebels struggled far more than I thought they would offensively against Oklahoma last week, but got the job done behind another great Jaxon Dart performance. He'll be big in this game and lead Ole Miss to a 31-21 victory on the road.


Minnesota at #24 Illinois

     Vegas must know something here as the Gophers are favored on the road against the Illini. Minnesota's defense has quietly become one of the nation's best, ranking 9th overall in Total Defense and 12th in Scoring, allowing just 16.8 points per game on average. The Illini fell to Oregon on the road last week, but took down Michigan at home the week prior. Luke Altmeyer is still having a strong season, throwing for nearly 1,700 yards thus far with 15 TDs and just 3 picks. He'll need to get this offense in gear as they've failed to reach double digits in their two losses, scoring 7 against Penn State and 9 against Oregon. Both of those team are top 15 defenses like the Gophers. Turnover margin is key in tight games, and both of these teams have been two of the best in the conference. I haven't watched enough Gopher football to fully appreciate why they're the favorite in this game, but I know the Illini are looking to bounce back, so give me the home underdog for a 23-20 win.


#1 Oregon at Michigan

     The Wolverines look to slow down the high-powered Ducks as they come into the Big House for afternoon BIG 10 Clash. Big Blue is very one dimensional with their run heavy attack, but Senior Davis Warren has opened at least a few options in the passing attack. He'll have a very difficult pass rush to deal with when he drops back though, as Oregon averages 3 sacks per contest. Offensively, the Ducks still run on the back of Jordan James. The Junior is averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 8 TDs on the season. Despite fewer carries in the last couple weeks, he's still been productive and helps move the chains. That opens up the offense for Dillon Gabriel and everything else they want to do, so keep your eye on #20 when he doesn't have the ball, because I guarantee Michigan will flow his way on play-fakes. Ducks stay on top 31-17.


Florida vs #2 Georgia (World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party)

     The Gators are looking to play spoiler in the back half of the season as they have 4 out of 5 remaining games against ranked conference opponents and don't have much to fear with a young QB out there developing week after week. Georgia does not look as dominant compared to previous years, and Carson Beck (as predicted) continues to struggle finding his weapons. One of the easy weapons for the Georgia offense though is ex-Gator Trevor Etienne. He's rushed for 7 TDs in the last 4 games and is due to for a breakout day. Why not against his former team? Bulldogs win 34-20 behind Etienne.


Texas Tech at #11 Iowa State

     The Red Raiders love to play close games, and despite some early celebrations, they ended up falling last week to the rival Horned Frogs 35-34. Iowa State is coming off their BYE week after nearly losing to UCF at home, so I'm sure Matt Campbell is anxious to get them back on track. Rocco Becht is very dynamic to watch, and his defense should stuff Tahj Brooks and the Red Raider run game. Give me they Cyclones at home 33-17.


#13 Indiana at Michigan State (Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon)

     Sparty is starting to find some footing under first year HC Jonathan Smith, but now host Cignasty and the 13th ranked Hoosiers after falling to in-state rival Michigan last week in the Big House. Star QB Kurtis Rourke is back under center for Indiana, which means their offense is back to full strength. The Hoosiers love to score and won't stop until the clock hits 0:00, so if Michigan State is going to win this game, Aidan Chiles better make good on his promise from the beginning of the season and help us bet the overs. Chiles is certainly a talented athlete, but turnovers have plagued him this year with 9 picks and 3 fumbles on the year. Indiana will take full advantage of those and I expect them to win 35-14.


#10 Texas A&M at South Carolina

     The leaders of the SEC head to Columbia to take on the Gamecocks. Yes, the Texas A&M Aggies are in first place atop the SEC and have a very clear path to the Championship Game in Atlanta. South Carolina has proven to be an upset minded team this year, and are fresh off a BYE week. Raheim (Rocket) Sanders is a focal point of the offense, rushing for 4.4 yards per carry and 6 TDs this season. The Aggies defense ranks 18th against the rush and have held three of their last four opponents to 100 yards or less on the ground. Offensively, I would assume to see Marcel Reed at QB, but there could be a Connor Weigman sighting as well. Weigman was benched in favor of Reed against LSU last week and the Aggies turned a 10-point halftime deficit into a 38-23 victory. Reed provides an extra element to the run game with his legs, but South Carolina's defensive front is no joke. We've seen them create havoc in the backfield all season long with 57 Tackles for Loss and 28 Sacks. A&M needs to protect up front, but I think they get the job done and win 30-27.


Louisville at #11 Clemson

     The Tigers have yet to lose to Louisville, 9-0 all time against the Cardinals. Dabo has Clemson rolling since that opening loss to Georgia, and they're averaging 42 points per game as the 4th ranked scoring offense in the nation. Jeff Brohm and the Cardinals have three losses on the season by one score each to ranked teams in Notre Dame, SMU and Miami. They're due for a big upset, but Death Valley is not an easy place to find those. Certainly a fun one to watch tonight, but I think the Tigers' offense is too much for Louisville to keep pace with, similar to their loss against Miami. Tigers 38, Cardinals 28.


Wisconsin at Iowa (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)

     Night games don't happen often in Iowa City, but when there's a Cow Trophy on the line you know they shine just a bit brighter. Wisconsin comes into Iowa City for a classic BIG 10 West type showdown. The Hawkeyes have a running back who would be in some Heisman talks if not for Ashton Jeanty up in Boise making everyone look bad by comparison. Kaleb Johnson has 1,144 yards with 16 TDs to his name this season, averaging a staggering 7.8 yards per carry. He's really the only source of offense for Iowa as the QB position continues to be a blackhole. Defensively they're not as stonewalled as they used to be, but opponents are still scoring fewer than 20 points per game on the Hawkeyes. For the Badgers they struggled to run the ball against Penn State, mustering up just 81 yards. If the run is established early, they can hold off the Hawkeyes, but I still have some question marks about Wisconsin. This will be one of those BIG 10 games where the first team to 20 wins, and oddly enough I think Iowa can get to 20 now. I'll take the Hawkeyes at home 23-17.


#18 Pitt at #20 SMU

     The only other ranked vs ranked matchup of the week features unbeaten Pitt on the road against the Red Hot Ponies. SMU was my dark horse to storm the ACC and get into the championship mix, a win against Pitt almost guarantees that with Boston College, @Virginia and Cal remaining on the schedule. Pat Narduzzi's squad still has Clemson and Louisville ahead of them, but are one of the few unbeaten teams in the nation. Very few have paid attention to the Panthers, but after ranking 116th in total offense and scoring offense last season, they are currently ranked 25th and 6th respectively with an average of 443 yards per game and 40.9 points. This could turn into a shoot out in Dallas, but the weather may have other plans with some rain. SMU somehow pulled out a road victory with 6 turnovers last week, so if they can hold onto the ball winning will be much easier. Pitt hasn't played an offense as dynamic as SMU's, but they racked up 5 picks and 3 TDs defensively against Syracuse last Thursday. This should be a fun game to watch, but it's on the ACC Network, so not many will be able to see it. Give me the Ponies by a late game score to seal it 38-35.


Culver Stockton at Peru State

     My former roommate and radio co-host Nate Muhlbach will be joining me for this Broadcast as the Bobcats host the Wildcats for a Heart of America Conference battle in the Oak Bowl. Peru State is coming off a 50-7 victory on the road last week and average around 405 yards per game offensively. Culver Stockton is 1-7 on the season and defensively allow 49 points per game on average. Big opportunity for Peru to keep rolling and I've got the Bobcats winning 56-14. Be sure to tune in to the broadcast with the link below!


UCLA at Nebraska

     The Huskers could celebrate bowl eligibility with their fans at Memorial with a win today. UCLA has had a rough start to the BIG 10 lifestyle, sitting at 2-5 and 1-4 in conference. They're coming off a BYE following their win over Rutgers, but now travel to Lincoln for a dreary and rainy afternoon in Nebraska. The sunshine-loving Bruins won't do well with the weather, so the Huskers need to take advantage of that early. Raiola's passing game will get tested on it's own in the weather, so look for a run heavy script from the Husker offense. Defense should have another big day as UCLA's offense has a limited number of weapons and they are -7 in turnover margin. Show up, command the line of scrimmage and pressure the QB to force turnovers. Huskers win and are bowl eligible for the first time since my Junior year of college with a 28-14 victory.


Quick Hit Predictions:

Virginia Tech at Syracuse - The Hokies are primed for a big finish to their season and Kyle McCord fell apart with 5 INTs against Pitt last week. Virginia Tech 27, Syracuse 21.

Arizona State at Oklahoma State - Nothing seems to be going right for Mike Gundy and the Pokes this season, but they've got to get at least one conference win, right? Pokes at home by a field goal 31-28.

USC at Washington - The Trojans and the Huskies meet now as BIG 10 opponents and neither has enjoyed the cross country travel that comes with it. Happy to be playing on the West Coast for an away game, give me USC to win in Seattle. Trojans 33, Huskies 24.

Vanderbilt at Auburn - Tigers are favored by -7.5 to a team that just took Texas to the wire with surge in the second half. Give me the Commodores on the road to Anchor Down and get bowl eligible. Vandy wins 30-26.

Kentucky at #7 Tennessee - The Wildcats already upset Ole Miss this season and took Georgia to the wire as well. On the road at Rocky Top, but Tennessee has been shaky lately. Cats keep it close, but Vols prevail 23-14.


Thanks for reading my Week 10 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday. GO BIG RED!

Peru State Livestream: https://www.heartconferencenetwork.com/peru/


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando