Welcome to Week 13 Football Friends! Just two final weeks of the regular season remain as we draw closer to the first 12 team playoff, and the Huskers are still hunting for that elusive 6th win to get them bowl eligible. It's been a few weeks since I've done a reflection, so I'll give my thoughts on Nebraska's loss to USC and how things look for the final two games ahead of my Week 13 Predictions. There's a lot to shake out with the 12 team playoffs, so expect plenty of chaos these final weeks!
With 4 straight losses, the Huskers sit at 5-5, still trying to make their first bowl game since 2016. Matt Rhule has shown he's been willing to make changes, bringing in ex-WVU and Houston Head Coach Dana Holgersen who quickly took over as the Offensive Coordinator, bumping out Marcus Satterfield. There were a few changes against USC, but nothing too surprising and ultimately the offense still didn't produce much. I've got my thoughts broken down into my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below.
GOOD - Ceyair Wright & Emmet Johnson. The ex-Trojan came back to Southern California and made his name well known early with the pick six to start off the game. Wright added 4 solo tackles to his contributions and did well in coverage. Emmet Johnson continues to make drive-sparking plays and runs with the most elusiveness out of any back. I would love to see him get more carries the last couple of games as he's been one of the few bright spots through this frustrating season.
EXPECTED - Simpler offense, but not much change. To his credit, Dana Holgersen had only been there about 2 weeks when we came in to the USC game as the Huskers OC. I didn't expect too many flashy things, but I am glad to have seen some change. Dylan seemed to be getting the ball out a lot quicker with receivers running short and quick routes to get open earlier in the play. There's still a decent amount of familiarity, but hopefully they can throw a few more wrinkles in this week.
BAD - Vibes. I'm not sure what mythical, seventh-dimensional demon I have to make a deal with to get Nebraska to a bowl game, but Vibes are BAD in Lincoln right now. The Huskers very easily could win these final two games and go bowling, but they could also lose their final two games. Holgersen holding the keys to the offense is likely a good thing, but the vibes around the team is not good. Winning cures all, and we're only asking for 1 more. The defense keeps getting gashed at the wrong time and even though they're in position to make the plays, it somehow always ends as a better result for the other team. I hope they get very aggressive in the last couple weeks, but something is still off with this team.
Week 12 Record: 14 - 4
Overall Record: 157 - 68
Week 13 Predictions:
#5 Indiana at #2 Ohio State
The Buckeyes and the Hoosiers in top 5 battle is something College Football has never seen before. Indiana has more losses than any program in division 1 history, but don't tell that to HC Curt Cignetti. He's got this team cooking and have been demolishing everyone in their path. Ohio State's defense is stout and will make life difficult for Kurtis Rourke and company. However, the Hoosier defense will be doing the same against the Buckeyes. Indiana ranks 12th in the nation with 31 sacks on the year, and Ohio State has only given up 12, but does have some injuries on the offensive line. This would be one of the biggest upsets of the year, despite Indiana being ranked 5th. This would prove they are legit, and I would love to see them hosting a playoff game. Ohio State is always steady though, and traditionally know how to handle tough opponents at home. No matter what, this should be a great game to watch. To hell with it, it's College Football in late November, GIVE ME THE HOOSIERS! I think the defensive front dominates the line of scrimmage and Will Howard does not have a good day getting hit in the pocket. Indiana 27, Ohio State 21. PLAYOFF CHAOS!
#9 Ole Miss at Florida
The Gators pulled a big upset at home last week against LSU despite being more than doubled on time of possession. DJ Lagway is proving that this team has a lot of potential with him under center in the future, but they are still looking to play spoiler today. The Rebels are still in the mix for an SEC Championship, and some big wins to finish the season could really boost their Playoff image. I expect the Rebels to put up a lot of points in the last couple of weeks, and make a statement against the Gators. Rebels walk out of the Swamp with a 38-20 victory.
#13 SMU at Virginia
My dark horse Mustangs continue to be disrespected by the Playoff Committee despite continuing their roll through ACC competition. Head Coach Rhett Lashlee just got a contract extension, but one final road game could prove to be a tricky test ahead of their finale against Cal at home. Virginia has covered the spread more often than not this season, and an upset could be brewing. I picked SMU to make the playoffs and to win the ACC. The Pony Express is back in College Football and this team keeps showing it today. SMU 31, Virginia 17.
Kentucky at #3 Texas
Mark Stoops and the Wildcats have been headaches for top 10 teams all season long: Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee were all tight games. Both the Rebels and Vols were hosting Kentucky, but still had issues. Texas cannot overlook Kentucky and peek ahead to Texas A&M. Despite their 4-6 record, the Wildcats rank 29th in total defense, so don't expect Texas to put up 40+. If Kentucky wants to pull the upset today, Senior RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye needs to have a big night. He only has 505 yards with 5 TDs on the season, but averages 5 yards per carry and catches the ball well out of the backfield. I think Texas will handle business and set up a massive game for the Lone Star Showdown next week, but don't be surprised if Kentucky hangs around. Hook 'Em for 34-21.
#4 Penn State at Minnesota
The Nittany Lions have rarely been tested this season outside of USC and Ohio State, but the upset minded Gophers coming off a BYE in Minneapolis is a great late season spot to spoil the Penn State season. Oddly enough, if you compare these teams, they match up well in a lot of key stats. Total Defense: Penn State #5, Minnesota #11. 3rd Down Conversion: Penn State #5, Minnesota #18. However, one key stat has a big gap, Turnover Margin: Minnesota #6, Penn State #45. The Gophers have a +12 margin while the Nittany Lions have just +3. The Gopher defense can certainly slow down opponents, and if you start giving up possessions, this could be a very under the radar upset. Penn State doesn't slip in these games, and it might be closer than they want, but I like them to finish with a 24-17 victory.
#14 BYU at #21 Arizona State
The Cougars were suffocated by the Jayhawk defense last week at home. Nothing against Kansas, but while I was watching that game, I felt like BYU lost it more on their own. Weird things happened in that game, and that might be the little slip up they needed. Arizona State is in that Big XII mix, and a win would put them in prime position to get to the championship game. Cam Skattebo is the key factor to watch because this do-it-all back gives opposing defense nightmares. He's accounted for more than 1,500 total yards and 13 TDs on the year. The Cougar defense gave up just 73 yards on the ground against Kansas though, and I think Jake Retzlaff and the offense bounce back for a big afternoon. Don't toss the Cougars aside after that one loss, this team is still one to watch in the Big XII. Cougars bounce back with a statement 31-21.
#16 Colorado at Kansas
Kansas has back-to-back upsets against ranked teams, will they get a third? They're hosting the Prime Time Buffs in what sets up for an old school Big XII shootout between old foes. Former Husker QB Turner Gill was leading the Jayhawks last time these two teams met in 2010 before Colorado left the Big XII, and that one ended in a 52-45 barn burner for the Jayhawks. This could be a similar style of game as both teams have playmakers who can put up points. KU QB Jaylon Daniels has been red hot with 8 passing TDs and just 2 picks in the last 5 games. He's added another 4 TDs on the ground and has shown flashes of his 2022 self. Devin Neal has looked more like himself as well, racking up 12 TDs on the season and averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Colorado's rush defense has improved and currently ranks 57th. They will be tested with the option game in this one. Offensively, Shedeur Sanders needs to get the ball out of his hands quickly as KU pressured Retzlaff a lot last week. I would expect a lot of big plays and a high-scoring affair. The Buffs have been able to pull away late in recent games, but that might not happen this time. We talked all season about chaos in the Big XII but now everyone is getting too comfortable. ROCK CHALK JAYHAWK with the upset in Arrowhead stadium. Kansas 42, Colorado 38.
Stanford at Cal (The Big Game)
Now one of the most historic ACC rivalries, The Cardinal and Golden Bears meet for the 118th time. Stanford owns the series 60-47-10 all time, but the Golden Bears are on a 3-game win streak. Fernando Mendoza is very fun to watch with the Cal offense, throwing for just under 2,800 yards with 13 TDs and 6 picks so far. He's also added another 2 TDs on the ground. Stanford pulled a big upset against the Cardinals of Louisville last week and are looking to do the same to their arch rivals. I think the Golden Bears get the victory as they win 34-28 at home.
#19 Army vs #6 Notre Dame
The Black Knights are looking to go 10-0 for the first time in program history and are looking to take down Notre Dame. The Irish are looking for another boost to their resume for the playoffs and avoid another upset. Army can cause a lot of headaches with their hybrid triple offense offense with a hint of spread/air raid. Bryson Daily the Army QB leads the 44th ranked total offense with 28 total TDs. Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard has been spinning it as of late, throwing for 200+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games with 9 TDs and just 2 picks. The Black Knights need to force some turnovers if they want to win this game, and dominate the time of possession to keep Notre Dame off the field. I think Army will keep things close, but Notre Dame hands them their first loss of the season. Irish 28, Army 17.
Washington State at Oregon State (2-PAC Championship)
Unfortunately they won't be handing out a championship trophy between Wazzu and Oregon State, but for all College Football Fans, this is the 2-PAC Championship. The two PAC-12 leftovers meet for the first time since being abandoned, and the Beavers have been spiraling. They've lost 5 straight games, most recently being shutout 28-0 by a very not good Air Force team. Wazzu suffered their second loss of the season on the road at New Mexico last week in an offensive shootout. Sophomore QB John Mateer is the key player to watch in this one as he does everything for the Cougars. He's thrown for 2,707 yards with 26 TDs and 6 picks to go along with his 695 rushing yards and 12 TDs. Another big day for him and Wazzu wins the 2-PAC Championship 38-14.
#7 Alabama at Oklahoma
Before the season I predicted that Oklahoma would pull an upset on either Alabama or LSU to keep them out of the playoffs. The Tigers are already out thanks to Alabama, so will my prediction be for the Sooners to upset the Tide? The Sooners rank 24th in total defense despite their 5-5 record and give up just an average of 21.9 points per game. Unfortunately, their offense ranks 118th in total offense and 90th in scoring, averaging just over 25 points per game. Bama has been rolling teams as of late, and the hostile environments hasn't seem to phase them. If OU can force some turnovers, this could get interesting, but I think we'll see the Tide Roll to a 30-10 victory.
#15 Texas A&M at Auburn
A slip of the tongue had Mike Elko focused on Texas, but they have a night game in Jordan-Hare stadium before the Lone Star Showdown. Auburn never needs much for fuel of their upsets, but it certainly never hurts. The Tigers rank 14th in total defense and allow just 18.7 points per game. Texas A&M has had some ups and downs on offense, so turnovers will be key in this one. Both Marcel Reed and Peyton Thorne do a fairly good job of keeping ahold of the rock, so whoever can force turnovers, that could be the deciding factor. Separate of holding on to the rock, my key factor is Senior RB Jarquez Hunter for the Tigers. He's rushed for 1,015 yards with 5 TDs on the season, and averages 7.0 yards per carry. In their loss against South Carolina, the Aggies gave up 286 yards rushing. Auburn needs to run the ball and they can pull the upset. If they do, and Texas A&M can beat Texas next week, we will have 6 SEC teams with the same conference record. Bring on the CHAOS and give me Auburn for an upset under the lights! Tigers 30, Aggies 23.
USC at UCLA (Battle for LA)
The Trojans and Bruins clash for the Battle of LA in a BIG 10 Battle out west. USC turned things around with QB Jayden Maiava stepping in against my Huskers. UCLA couldn't quite hang on against Washington, but they have been very impressive in the back half of the season. The Bruins rank 8th in rush defense, so Jayden Maiava needs to be smart with his throws. He had some dangerous ones against Nebraska, but lucky for him, the blackshirts couldn't capitalize. This will be a close one, but I think Maiava is the difference maker, give me the Trojans to pick up the victory across town. Fight On! USC beats UCLA 27-24.
Wisconsin at Nebraska (Battle for the Freedom Trophy)
I was in the stands back in 2012 when Nebraska last beat Wisconsin, and Dylan Raiola was in the first grade. The Huskers have not been able to crack the Badger code, and with 1 win standing between the Huskers and bowl eligibility, it will again come down to the Huskers beating a rival. Either the Badgers this week or the Hawkeyes next week. Both teams are in a bit of an odd place as Wisconsin has been with a 2nd string QB for most of the year, and just fired their OC after falling short against Oregon. Every single sign points to Nebraska taking advantage of the situation with a home and and winning that 6th game of the season for the first time since 2016. But this game never feels like the Huskers can keep ahold of it. The mistakes pile up and Wisconsin always seems to finish things off on the right foot. Converting on 3rd down is my key to this game. Nebraska ranks 48th with 42.9% and Wisconsin ranks 88th with 37.8%. Defensively, the Blackshirts hold teams to 37.0% and Wisconsin limits opponents to 38.0%. These numbers are all a bit too close for comfort, but the team that converts third down the best wins this game. Drives will be sustained and there won't be many points, so finishing in the redzone after a long drive is crucial. We have a decently warm day for late November in Lincoln, but this will be a classic BIG 10 defensive struggle. You all know my rule, first team to 20 wins the game. I'll be cheering for Nebraska as always, but until I see a change with this team I'm saying "On Wisconsin" for a 20-17 victory. Nebraska will have the lead late, but I have a bad feeling about an OC change actually working for another team late in the year. PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG HUSKERS!
Quick Hit Predictions:
#25 Illinois at Rutgers - Illini 30, Scarlet Knights 27.
Iowa at Maryland - Hawkeyes 17, Terps 13.
UConn at Syracuse - Orange 34, Huskies 21.
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State - Battle for top spot in Conference USA. Gamecocks 33, Bearkats 27.
Cincy at K-State - Wildcats at home 35-24.
Virginia Tech at Duke - Hokies get bowl eligible with a 37-31 win.
Vanderbilt at LSU - Tigers have fallen off the SEC Conference bid, but at home against Vandy should bounce back. Tigers beat the Commodores 27-21.
#22 Iowa State at Utah - Close game out in Salt Lake City, but the Utes don't have a plan on offense. Cyclones need this (and some help) for a Big XII Championship game birth. Cyclones 30, Utes 24.
Thank you for reading my Week 13 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday, we need some upsets and some CHAOS! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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