Saturday, September 27, 2025

Week 5 Predictions

     Hello football fans and welcome to Week 5 of College Football! It's been a busy week with different CFB news updates including the mid-week firing of Mike Gundy from Oklahoma State and the hand surgery for Oklahoma QB John Mateer which will keep him out for a few weeks. All that leads into a LOADED week 5 slate of games, but first I'll recap my thoughts on the Huskers' home loss to Michigan. I certainly had to let my emotions settle after that game, but overall there's a lot of season and opportunity left for Nebraska. This post will start with my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD break down for the Huskers and then roll into my Week 5 Predictions. Enjoy!

     Nebraska fell to Michigan 30-27 at home last Saturday as the Wolverines racked up 286 yards rushing and held the Huskers to just 43 yards on the ground. Michigan added 7 sacks defensively and held strong as the Huskers had multiple trips to the redzone that ended in fewer than 7 points, sometimes 0. I've had a number of thoughts on the game, but after a few days of reflection, here's what I've settled on. This is one of the losses I originally had predicted at the beginning of the season, and despite the frustrations with missing the opportunities to win this game, this is a somewhat expected outcome given the talent differential, especially in the trenches. It would be nice to see Nebraska take the next step in these big games, but we'll have to wait a bit longer in the season to see it.

GOOD - Jacory Barney Jr. and the House Rhules Podcast. Starting with one we can all agree on, Jacory Barney Jr. is an absolute DAWG! The sophomore finished the game leading Nebraska in receiving with 6 catches for 120 yards and 2 TDs including the fantastic Hail Mary catch in a very crowded mess of players. At just 6'0 and 170 lbs. Barney has quickly shown he's a very aggressive receiver when the ball is in the air. As a receivers coach myself, this is great to see. I expect more passes his way as he continues to develop in the offense. Now for the controversial piece of my analysis, Matt Rhule's podcast. I've heard and seen comments of a number of people complaining that he should be focused more on football and the podcasts is wasting time, especially when you lose to a conference opponent at home while leaving points on the field. I understand that it may look like he's spreading himself thin with the Pat McAfee show and hosting weekly episodes of House Rhules, but this is the modern age of College Football. Matt Rhule is marketing Nebraska in so many new ways to make sure the Huskers stay relevant in the conversation, despite the on-field struggles of the past decade plus. The show is a unique look inside the Head Coaches role with a Division 1 program, and is a great look for Husker Football as he continues to build up to a place where Nebraska is competing for Playoff spots. I love the content and the vulnerability the show brings, and despite the frustrations with the loss and potential future losses, this is a great way to share Nebraska's story. Keep the content coming!

EXPECTED - Dylan Raiola's strong performance with some rough spots. It's hard to remember sometimes that he's played only 18 games of college football, and 7 of those with his current OC. Raiola certainly had some head scratching moments in the game against the Wolverines, but if you take a step back, he threw for 308 yards, 3 TDs and completed 73.2% of his passes last Saturday. He currently ranks 3rd in the nation with 75.6% completion rating on the year and has been making some very smart throws throughout the season. I am a bit concerned about his pocket awareness as a few of those sacks I blame on holding the ball too long, but this is a QB who is clearly taking steps in the right direction to be elite. I'd like to see Dylan develop a better understanding of pre-snap and post-snap coverage analysis, but I strongly believe the Husker offense is trending in the right direction with him under center.

BAD - The Trenches. As highlighted by the stats shared earlier, Nebraska has some serious issues to address on the line of scrimmage. Starting with the defensive front 7, I explained my concerns with this unit ahead of the season, and those concerns are now fears for what BIG 10 play could look like. Some things are inflated by the long runs from Michigan, but from watching this game I'm not sure the defensive front will be much of a force in stopping the run right now. Michigan's Oline washed away Nebraska at the line of scrimmage and created massive rushing lanes. The Blackshirts also have just 6 sacks on the season, but only 2.5 of those coming from the defensive line. Certainly will need a lot of growth from this unit quickly as BIG 10 play picks up. On the other side of the ball, the Husker Oline is not in good shape and giving up 7 sacks to Michigan highlighted problems quickly. Left tackle is a rotating door at the moment, Gunnar Gottula was beat nearly every play, Ellijah Pritchard has no clue what his assignments are and Turner Corcoran has never been in my good graces for his play. I do think Dylan needs to get rid of the ball quicker, but the Husker Oline was not protecting well and on run plays they were stood up immediately. This unit needs to step up to help protect Raiola and get rushing lanes for Emmett Johnson.



Week 4 Results: 13 - 10

Overall Results: 63 - 29


Week 5 Predictions:

#21 USC at #23 Illinois

     The Trojans travel east as they take on the Fightin' Illini in the heart of BIG 10 country as this game takes place in Champagne, IL. There wasn't much fight in the Illini last week as they let Indiana roll 63 points on them, and now return home to a fiery USC squad. I had Illinois as my dark horse team to make the playoffs and potentially find their way into the BIG 10 Championship with a favorable schedule. Now I'm wondering if they are capable of any upsets because they looked rough last week. Defensively, they are playing without a number of key players in the secondary, allowing Lincoln Riley and the Trojans to draw up a spicy air raid game plan. Junior QB Jayden Maiava has thrown for 1,223 yards with 9 TDs and 0 interceptions. He's added another 4 TDs on the ground and his favorite target, Makai Lemon has 24 catches for 438 yards and 3 of those passing TDs. Defensively the Trojans are a bit vulnerable, but they're playing at a much higher clip than traditional Lincoln Riley team. This one could get high-scoring if the Illinois offense gets back on track, but with the issues on defense highlighted last week, I've got the Trojans winning 38-28. Fight On!


#22 Notre Dame at Arkansas

     The Irish travel to Fayetteville as both teams look to turn this season around after rough starts. Neither team has showed much defense, and the Irish are a bit banged up in the secondary. Offensively, these teams do well in putting up points, but their stars do it in different ways. Starting with the Hogs, QB Taylen Green is a dangerous dual-threat QB who is completing a career best 64.3% of his passes this season for 1,191 yards with 12 TDs and 4 picks. He's added another 360 yards on the ground with 2 more TDs as he averages 8.2 yards per carry. Notre Dame has done fairly well stopping the run, but the secondary has ben shredded, currently ranking 132nd in the nation. They will look to counter Arkansas' air attack with a ground and pound strategy from Jeremiyah Love. The Junior has just 3 TDs thus far on the season, but averages 5.5 yards per carry and should have a big day against the Hogs' 87th ranked rush defense. Give me Notre Dame on the road behind a big performance from Love for a 28-24 win.


Duke at Syracuse

     The Orange beat down Clemson 34-21 last week while the Blue Devils pulled away from NC State in the second half for a 45-33 win. Both teams are very much in the mix for ACC Championship game runs, but there's a lot of season left to decide things. Unfortunately for the 'Cuse, starting QB Steve Angeli who has thrown for over l,300 yards with 10 TDs and 2 picks suffered a torn achilles and will miss the remainder of the season. Sophomore Rickie Collins will take the reigns of the offense and he'll look to out-duel Duke's start QB Darian Mensah. Syracuse's HC Fran Brown is always going to have his team ready, no matter what the circumstances, but without your starting QB this is a tough matchup. I'm very torn as I hate picking against Fran Brown, but I'll take Duke in a close one. Looking for Syracuse to prove me wrong with some extra grit, but Duke 30, Syracuse 27.


#1 Ohio State at Washington

     The Buckeyes have their first road test of the season and it's a tough one as they travel across the country to Seattle to take on the Huskies of Washington. Jedd Fisch has the dubs with a 3-0 record to start the season and Sophomore QB Demond Williams Jr. has been a big part of that. He's accounted for 998 total yards and 8 TDs through the first few weeks and will look to add to those stats against the viscous Buckeye defense. Ohio State ranks 10th in total defense, but the Huskies aren't far behind at 23rd. The Buckeyes have a young QB of their own in Julian Sayin, facing his first road test. Luckily he's got a fantastic set of weapons to rely on with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate on the outside and 3 different RBs rotating through the backfield. I think the Buckeyes will prevail with their talent, especially on defense, but enjoy watching Demond Williams Jr. for the Huskies because they will be dangerous in the conference this year. Ohio State 30, Washington 20.


#4 LSU at #13 Ole Miss

     There's a little extra spice to this rivalry as Landry Kiffin, daughter of Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin hard launched her relationship with LSU Linebacker Whit Weeks with a photo on social media, prompting her dad to comment "bet the over". Similar to Dan Lanning and Curt Cignetti, don't think for a minute that Lane Kiffin won't run up the score if he gets the chance. That won't be easy with LSU's 9th ranked scoring defense, but with Trinidad Chambliss at QB, the Rebels have a little extra spice. In his two games against Arkansas and Tulane, he's completed 67.9 % of his passes for 660 yards with 3 TDs and another 174 and 2 TDs on the ground. LSU hasn't faced a QB with this much spunk on the season, and if their offense can't get into gear, this defense will get tired trying to chase down Chambliss and the Rebels. For the Tigers' offense, the run game has been very slow going as they rank 112th in the nation. QB Garrett Nussmeier is used to shouldering the load as LSU has attempted the 15th most passes this season through just 4 games. It should be a fun one down in the grove, but with the extra incentives I've got Ole Miss with the big win at home. Rebels beat the Tigers 36-31.


Auburn at #9 Texas A&M

     Jackson Arnold and the Tigers fell short in Norman last week, but the passing game has finally started to open up. Keon Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr. combined for 148 yards and a TD between 12 catches and were getting great separation from the OU secondary. They will look to build on that in a very tough road environment for the second straight week as they travel to College Station to take on the Aggies. A&M had the impressive win against Notre Dame, but I feel like a lot of the CFB wold hasn't thought much about the Aggies. QB Marcel Reed has shown great improvement in his second year as the starter and his dual-threat ability could be difficult for Auburn to contain as they struggled with John Mateer running around them last week. Upset watch has potential here, but I expect A&M to make more of a statement to get noticed. Mike Elko will always have a defensive game plan ready and I think Jackson Arnold will be under heat again in the pocket. The Auburn Oline struggled to protect him last week and that will lead to more point opportunities for A&M with short fields and turnovers. Gig 'Em Aggies as they win at home 38-17.


#11 Indiana at Iowa

     The Hoosiers quickly and emphatically proved me wrong last week as they STOMPED my BIG 10 dark horse in Illinois. Curt Cignetti is not a man you should question I've learned when you think his teams have had their time in the spotlight. They now travel on the road to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. It's always a tricky place to play in the BIG 10 as most every team that goes there finds themselves playing very far from their normal tendencies. Iowa's defense is always great at forcing turnovers and teams playing them always seem to make mistakes in the worst moments. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza has been sensational though, throwing 14 TDs and just 10 INCOMPLETIONS over the last 3 weeks. The Hoosiers seem primed to make statements week in and week out, so they are going to stomp Iowa and most everyone else on their way toward another playoff run. Hoosiers over the Hawkeyes 38-14.


#15 Tennessee at Mississippi State

     A big upset alert game is set in Starkville as the Bulldogs host the 15th ranked Vols. Tennessee has a high powered offense behind QB Joey Aguilar who has thrown for 1,124 yards with 12 TDs and 3 picks. He'll be up against the 13th best pass defense in the nation with Mississippi State and they've already got 5 picks on the season. The Vols have put up at least 41 points in every game, but their own defense has been gashed at times, giving up 21 plays of 20+ yards already this season. For the Bulldogs, they come in unbeaten after winning just 2 games a year ago and not a single one in the SEC. This would be a big win for HC Jeff Lebby, and while I do believe his team is on the rise, I don't think Tennessee is overlooking the Bulldogs. Vols win on the road with an impressive outing from Aguilar 34-21.


Arizona at #14 Iowa State

     The Wildcats come into Ames, Iowa looking to upset the 14th ranked Cyclones as two undefeated teams in the Big XII clash. As anticipated, this conference has been very unpredictable in the early parts of this season, so don't sleep on Arizona under Brent Brennan. Defensively, they rank 2nd in the nation with a +6 turnover margin, and that's always a good stat to take on the road. Iowa State will lean on Senior QB Rocco Becht and his plethora of receivers to handle this matchup. Becht has 4 different players with over 100 receiving yards on the season as he spreads it very well throughout his team. The run game has been key to balance their offense and in addition to the 2 rushing TDs from Becht, RBs Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III both average nearly 5 yards per carry. If Iowa State can get the run game moving early, Arizona could struggle as they have not been tested by a dynamic offense yet this season. Be sure to watch QB Noah Fafita for the Wildcats though, as he's a playmaker and will keep them in this game. I'll take Iowa State in the night game atmosphere at home, but Wildcats hang for a while before falling 31-21.


#17 Alabama at #5 Georgia

     An SEC heavyweight matchup in between the hedges is set to take place as Georgia takes on Alabama in Athens. The Tide are in need of a statement win after their opening weekend loss to Florida State, especially after the 'Noles were upset in double overtime last night. They've balanced their offense much more since their opening week, and should give Georgia some headaches to deal with defensively. We saw Tennessee put up 41 points on the Dawgs a couple of weeks ago and if they can get a good rhythm on the ground early, those chains will stay short and manageable. For Georgia, they will look to establish a run game as well to keep pressure off Gunnar Stockton. The Tide's defense is very aggressive and if you give them opportunities to put pressure, bad things will happen. Stockton does have the dual-threat ability, but I expect Bama to have a spy ready. These games are always full of highlights, so be sure to enjoy it as the Tide Roll to a 33-28 victory.


#6 Oregon at #3 Penn State

     The biggest game of the night is set in Happy Valley with a legendary White Out between Penn State and Oregon. These two teams met in the BIG 10 Championship last season as the Ducks held off the Nittany Lions for a 45-37 victory. The Ducks are a high-powered, fast-paced offense that spreads defenses all across the field. Penn State has a very athletic defense, but they want to get pressure and keep Oregon in long chain situations for this game. Offensively, Penn State has upgraded their receivers to help Drew Allar, but the true key to the game is the rushing attack. The Nittany Lions have two fantastic RBs with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who both had over 100 yards in that BIG 10 Championship last year. Oregon hasn't been tested with their rush defense yet this year, but it's hard to pick against the Ducks. They look complete, they look fast, and they won the BIG 10 in their first season. I've got them as my BIG 10 favorite again, and I think they show why tonight with a big win on the road. This should be a fantastic game to watch, and I've got the Ducks over the Nittany Lions 40-33.


Quick Hit Predictions:

#16 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest - The Ramblin' Wreck are on a roll and could find themselves unbeaten by the time they reach Georgia. Until then, keep it simple: run the ball and win the week. GT 31, WF 17.

Rutgers at Minnesota - Rutgers was pushed around by Iowa and the Gophers look to bring a similar rushing attack. Minnesota also ranks 1st in rush defense, so Rutgers could struggle to keep chains short. Golden Gophers over the Scarlet Knights 27-17.

Louisville at Pitt - An undercard in the ACC with teams have both recently been around that conference Championship game. I trust Jeff Brohm more than Paul Chryst in this game, so give me the Cards 33-24.

Cincinnati at Kansas - Nebraska needs Cincy to be a real threat in the Big XII, but KU at home has been dangerous. Jalon Daniels has 13 TDs so far this season and Brendan Sorsby doesn't have much help around him. Rock Chalk 26-21.

UCLA at Northwestern - Just a nasty looking game, which means we've got the ghosts of the BIG 10 West lurking. UCLA traveling to Chicago for a date with the Wildcats in their first game after firing Deshon Foster. No idea how this plays out, but give me the home team? Northwestern 30, UCLA 27.

Baylor at Oklahoma State - The Cowboys fired their coach on Tuesday and host a high-powered Baylor offense coming off a home loss with a last second field goal on Saturday. Not a great combination so Sic 'Em and Baylor wins 38-14.

Utah at West Virginia - The Utes travel east to Appalachia where the Mountaineers await for a Big XII battle. Angry Utes after the home loss, Kyle Whittingham will have his defense ready to go. Utah wins 28-10.

#25 BYU at Colorado - A rematch of the Alamo Bowl in which the Cougars dismantled Coach Prime and the Buffs 36-14. The Cougars haven't been tested much this year, so this is certainly a dangerous road game with Kaidon Salter now at QB for the Buffs. I don't think Coach Prime has them quite there yet, so give me the Cougars to win 30-24 on the road.

Thanks for reading my Week 5 Predictions and enjoy a fantastic slate for this College Football Saturday!




#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando


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