December 22nd - 26th Bowl Games

     Bowl Season trudges on and Nate and I both ended up 4-1 after this weeks games. It wasn't super exciting as we had the same predictions for all 5 games this week, but we'll try to shake it up over the next set of games. Some Power 5 teams are getting into the mix now as we get closer to the bigger games, so be sure to pay close attention to all the predictions! Thank you for reading and enjoy!

Alex Bowl Predictions: 9-1
Nate Bowl Predictions: 6-4


Jared Birmingham Bowl

Memphis vs. Wake Forrest

Alex

     This game should yield a lot of offense and a lot of points. Both offenses love to rack up the points as the Tigers average 43.6 points per game while the Demon Deacons average 32.5. Star wideout Greg Dortch for the Demon Deacons could give Memphis some headaches, but the main factor of this game is the rushing attack of the Tigers. Memphis averages 285 rush yards per game, and Junior RB Darrell Henderson is #2 in the nation when it comes to rushing yards, averaging just under 9 yards per carry. He has 22 TDs on the season and only needs 91 yards in the bowl game to eclipse 2,000! With Wake Forest ranking 91st in the nation in rush defense, I expect Memphis to roll BIG in this game. Tigers dominate on the ground and win this one 42-17.

Nate

     Memphis falls just short of upsetting UCF a few weeks ago, and unfortunately they have to spend their bowl season in Birmingham Alabama. A sad ending. But, they can still win the football game at least. What hasn’t been said about Darrell Henderson? He has lead the Tigers to close to total three thousand yards rushing, and multiple 200 yards per game on the ground. Wake forest will probably hang, but I’m picking the Tigers. Memphis: 31, Wake Forest 28

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Houston vs. Army

Alex

     No star Defensive Tackle and no star Quarterback. This is not a recipe for success and I doubt it will work today. The Cougars are absolutely atrocious on defense, giving up 34.4 points per game and nearly 500 yards of total offense. Army averages just under 300 rush yards per game, ranking second in the nation, so I doubt they'll have many issues in this one. Army rolls right on past Houston with a 34-17 victory.

Nate

     Turns out when you don’t have your best player on offense or on defense, you don’t win. Ed Oliver and D’Eriq King are both out, and with Houston’s horrid defense allowing 34 rushing touchdowns this season, good for 122^nd in the nation. Not good for a team that has to face the monstrous rushing attack of Army, a team that almost beat a team in the playoffs.
Army 28, Houston: 24


Dollar General Bowl

Buffalo vs. Troy

Alex

     Two tough G5 teams who were near the top spots of their respective conferences this season square off down in Mobile, Alabama. Buffalo has 10 wins on the season, but lost the MAC title game to the Huskies of Northern Illinois. Troy is a tough team that was bested by App. State, falling short of a division title. Both of these teams are fairly well matched, but the Bulls offense has the advantage on paper. They average 417 yards per game and score just under 35 points. Troy's defense has been tough this season, giving up no more than 21 points in their last 5 games. Having watched them in person, I know this is a talented team that will put up a fight in every game. Their Linebackers are a fantastic unit, and I think they'll have the edge in this game. Troy wins 31-27.

Nate

     Buffalo is coming off of a depressing loss in their conference championship game, and will be looking to rebound against a feisty Troy team. Buffalo has faltered when they play tougher competition, losing to teams like Army and Ohio, and this match-up should be no different, expect Troy to pound the rock early, then expose the Bull’s secondary late. 

Troy: 38, Buffalo: 29

Sofi Hawai'i Bowl

Hawai'i vs. Louisiana Tech

Alex

     The Rainbow Warriors get to stay at home for the holidays as they take on Louisiana Tech in the Hawai'i Bowl. Hawai'i's offense has been up and down all year, but has potential to light up the scoreboard on any given day. Sophomore QB, Cole McDonald, has thrown for nearly 3,800 yards to go along with his 35 TDs and just 8 picks. He's very good at escaping pressure in the pocket and should make it difficult for the Bulldogs to contain him in this one. LA Tech doesn't have much to offer on the offensive side of the ball and not having to travel gives Hawai'i a huge advantage. I'm taking the Rainbow Warriors with a 33-21 victory in their home bowl game.

Nate

     Hey another home game for one of these teams! Hawaii has alternated between “Oh man this team might be special” to “Uh oh, not so much”. Hawaii’s Run and Shoot offense can look impressive, but against the 5 best defenses that they have played, they’ve only scored an average of 21 points. And LaTech is no defensive slouch. I’ll take the team from Louisiana in this one. 

LaTech: 24, Hawaii: 20

Servpro First Responder Bowl

Boston College vs. Boise State

Alex

     I think this is one of the more interesting match-ups of all of bowl season. The Eagles have hung around with some top teams and have a Heisman-caliber Running Back to hand the ball to. Boise State is always lurking as one of the top G5 teams you never want to play, and QB Brett Rypien has been stellar in his senior campaign, throwing for more than 3,700 yards with 30 TDs and just 7 picks. BC will look to ground and pound with AJ Dillion, who averages 5 yards per carry. On the flip side, the Broncos have a start RB of their own, and his 1,415 yards and 17 TDs on the year should not be overlooked. Alexander Mattison is an absolute workhorse (pun intended) for Boise State, as he carried the rock 40 times in their Mountain West Championship loss to Fresno State. I've enjoyed watching both of these teams all year, and they're tough to play for anyone, but I like Boise State in this one. I think Mattison has another big game, even against the stiff Eagles defense, and there's no way Brett Rypien is losing in his final game as a Bronco. 

Boise State 35, Boston College 28.

Nate

     Honestly, the stats and momentum all favor Boise. BC has lost 3 straight to end the season, including two games they were favored in. Boise ended strong, even though they lost their conference championship. I however think this is one of those games where a mid tier P5 Team beaks a top tier G5 team by like 20. I expect AJ Dillon and the rest of the Golden Eagle crew to put a statement win, and take some comfort into the off-season. 

Boston College: 38, Boise St: 20

Quick Lane Bowl

Georgia Tech vs. Minnesota

Alex

     Our first Power 5 game comes with the Gophers taking on the Yellow Jackets in what will be Paul Johnson's final game before retirement. He's won 82 games as the Yellow Jackets' head coach over 11 seasons and will likely ground an pound one last time with the triple option attack. The Gophers squeaked into bowl season with big victories over Purdue and Wisconsin late in the year, giving them so building momentum under PJ Fleck. Their team is so hot and cold it's hard to keep up with, but one staple is star wideout Tyler Johnson. He earned 1st Team BIG 10 honors with over 1,100 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. He will give headaches to Georgia Tech's 56th ranked pass defense. On the other side, it's all about the ground attack. GT is the top ranked rushing offense in the nation, averaging 335 yards on the ground per game. Nebraska racked up 383 on Minnesota when I saw them in Lincoln and I imagine a similar situation occurring in this game. The Gophers have struggled to stop the run all year long and that will prove costly against a team like Georgia Tech. Paul Johnson gets his 3rd straight bowl victory on his way to retirement and Georgia Tech wins the Quick Lane Bowl 34-23.

Nate

     The last throws of triple option comes to roost in this game, as Paul Johnson retires after this one. It will be up to Minnesota to prevent his swan song, but their frightfully inconsistent defense tries to step up. They have held 6 opponents to under 100 yards rushing in a game, but 4 to over 300. Which Minnesota will show up? I’m betting on the good one. Minnesota 24, Georgia Tech: 20

Cheez-It Bowl

Cal vs. TCU

Alex

     At the beginning of this season, I would be extremely hyped for this match-up. While I'm still excited, injury-plagued TCU vs. an underwhelming Cal offense isn't quite as exciting as the early-year potential of these teams. Nonetheless, there is a game to be played and key factors to look at. Statistically, both programs are extremely well matched, so I would not be surprised with a tight game, maybe even overtime! Both QBs have struggled with their accuracy this season, but have dynamic play-makers around them to spread the ball to. TCU is a very talented team and I never like to go against Gary Patterson when it comes to predictions. He's building this team back up to the top in another couple years, and that will start with a big bowl victory. Cal was my sleeper/upset-minded team in the Pac-12 this year, but Patterson is 6-0 all time against the conference, so I'm going with the Frogs. Look for Jalen Reagor to have a big night out in Phoenix!

Horned Frogs: 26, Golden Bears 24.

Nate

     Good for TCU for sneaking into bowl eligibility! I doubt however, that it will continue the good feelings in the Cheez-It Bowl. (tangent, but cheez-its are disgusting, yuck). TCU has scored under 17 points in 8 of their games this season, and even with great players like Jalen Reagor, it will be tough for them to score on a tough Cal secondary, I like the bears.

Cal: 29, TCU: 17

Thank you for reading our predictions and stay tuned for more to come as we get to the bigger bowl game. Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

December 18th - 21st Bowl Games

     After starting off 5-0 in the opening day of Bowl Games, I look to carry that momentum in to the next set of predictions! Hello and welcome football readers, as we dive deeper into bowl season and begin to find more and more enticing match-ups. This post will focus on the next few days of games and hopefully yield me an even larger lead on my pal Nate, who has started 2-3 this bowl season. Be sure to keep a look out for all our other predictions coming later this holiday season and enjoy the games!

Alex Bowl Record: 5-0
Nate Bowl Record: 2-3


Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl

UAB vs. Northern Illinois

Alex

     This is the only non-New Year's 6 bowl game featuring two conference champions, UAB of the Sunbelt and Northern Illinois of the MAC. NIU is in familiar territory with bowl games, but are looking to end a 5-game bowl loss streak tonight. UAB has never won a bowl game in the program's history, and are looking to avenge last year's 41-6 beat down to fellow MAC team Ohio. The Blazers are led by a tough defense, giving up just 300 yards per game and 17 points on average. The Huskies have been less than impressive on offense this season, averaging just 20 points. The key factor in this game will be NIU star Defensive End, Sutton Smith. He's tied for the lead in the nation with 15 sacks and second in the nation with 24.5 TFL. He's one of the best (and most underrated) defensive players in the nation, and will be looking to cause havoc in the UAB backfield. UAB looks like an enticing team to pick, but I just have a gut feeling about Northern Illinois, they're not a team you want to pick against often. Huskies win down in Boca Raton 27-23.

Nate

     You like defensive struggles right? I mean, just two solid pass rushes sacking everyone out there? Two conference champions looking to cement a great season in stone? Then this is the game for you! NIU has probably the better of the Two defenses, with Sutton Smith and Josh Corcoran combining for 25 out of NIU’s 50 sacks on the season. Expect a slug-fest, but those two NIU players should make the difference in this one.

NIU: 14, UAB: 10

DXL Frisco Bowl

San Diego State vs. Ohio

Alex

     My man Frank Solich is in yet another bowl game and looking to add another victory to his storied legacy at Ohio. They will be taking on the Aztecs from down in San Diego and their rugged run defense. The Aztecs give up just 94.5 rush yards per game on average, ranking 4th in the nation. They will be up for a tough task as Solich has the Bobcat offense rolling in 2018, averaging 41.2 points per game and 470 yards of offense. SDSU's offense has taken a tumble since the departures of their star running backs in the last couple of years, and could find it difficult to hold the ball as the Bobcats rank 9th in the nation in Time of Possession. I'm sticking with Frank Solich in this game, and I think the Bobcats roll big to a Frisco Bowl Victory. Bobcat QB Nathan Rourke should have a big night. Ohio 37, San Diego State 17.

Nate

     Again, this is the ultimate hot hand argument. Did you know that Ohio has won 5 out of 6 games with points scored in those wins being over 45? That’s some dang hot offense. SDSU has lost 4 out of 5, and it looks to be reeling. I’m not saying that this means that much, I haven’t seen much of either of those teams to be honest. But this stat is shocking enough for me to pick the Bobcats.

Ohio: 40, SDSU: 32

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl

Marshall vs. USF

Alex

     This is an interesting game, not only because of the ridiculous name for the bowl game, but also because both teams have some dynamic players on the offensive sides of the ball. Starting with the opposing QBs, Isiah Green for Marshall has accounted for over 2,200 yards with 15 TDs through the air. His 10 interceptions have caused issues, as he's only completing 55.7% of his passes this year. Blake Barnett, USF's QB, has thrown for nearly 2,500 yards with 11 TDs and 11 Interceptions. He has another 8 TDs and 313 yards on the ground as well, but most of that load is carried by star RB Jordan Cronkrite. The Bulls have lost 5 straight games however, so the Heard will look to keep on Thundering. As I mentioned in my last post, one of the most telling stats of College Football is if you can stop the run. Marshall gives up just 104 rush yards per game while USF yields 245 per game to their opponents. Marshall wins whatever this bowl is 23-17.

Nate

     It’s a Home game for the Bulls, who play in their home stadium. A strange choice, but will be a big boon for the USF team who have faltered during the end point of the season. Marshall good record is a bit of a mirage, as they only have on win against a bowl eligible team, punching around on CUSA cupcakes for the rest of their schedule. I however like their strengths against USF, particularly Marshalls strong Run D vs USF’s middling Ground attack, and I say they pull it off.

Marshall: 17, USF: 14

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl

FIU vs. Toledo

Alex

     I'm sure I've said this every year now, but I cannot think of a better bowl game to be in than the Bahamas Bowl. Florida International and Toledo are lucky enough to get the trip down to Nassau this year as they square off for the first time in 8 years. The 2010 Little Cesar's Bowl ended with a last second field goal and FIU winning 34-32, so this could get interesting. Panther's QB, James Morgan, is a graduate transfer from Bowling Green, and has dominated down at FIU. He's thrown for 2,727 yards with a 65.3 completion percentage. Morgan has 26 TDs compared to just 7 interceptions and will look to light up the Rockets' 105th ranked pass defense. Toledo does have offense though, so this could be a tight, high-scoring affair. I like the Panthers in this game though, and I expect them to win their first bowl game since the 2010 victory. FIU 38, Toledo 28.

Nate

     We are still in the G5 jungle here, with another pair of teams that I can’t say I have too much of a passing familiarity with. I’m going to pick FIU for one reason only. Turnover margin. FIU has the 12^th fewest turnovers given up in the entire nation, and with Toledo’s offense not being the G5 juggernaut it has been in the last couple of years, that should get FIU that win they’ve been hoping for. FIU: 33, Toledo:30

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Western Michigan vs. BYU

Alex

     After their upset at Wisconsin, the Cougars (and the Badgers for that matter) fell of the CFB map. They're still a physical football team and are looking forward to bringing the wood against the Broncos. Injuries have plagued the Cougars this season, forcing their depth chart to step up. As for Western Michigan, they've dropped off quite a bit since the departure of PJ Fleck. The Broncos still move the ball well, averaging nearly 450 yards and 33 points per game, but their defense has dropped off. I think the Cougars are the tougher team in this match-up, so I'll give the nod to them. BYU tops Western Michigan 28-14.

Nate

It feels like forever ago when BYU was ranked. After that barn burner with Wisconsin, it looked like BYU might have been legit, turns out that both teams aren’t great, who would have thought? But I think they should get back on track with this one. Western Michigan is giving up 50 points a game over the last three games, and while I don’t think BYU will ever get that much, it should have no problem outscoring the Broncos. BYU: 32, Western Michigan: 17

Thank you for reading our Bowl Game Predictions and stay tuned for more to come! GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

December 15th Bowl Games

     Hello football fans and welcome to Bowl Season! I've been quite busy over the last couple weeks preparing for graduation, but I will do a season recap post after the national championship game. With my predictions this season, I finished with a 104-77 record. This was down a bit from last year's 63.8% success rate, but 57.5% isn't too bad. Hopefully I can turn it around during the bowl season and come away with some top notch predictions. This post will have my predictions on the first few bowl games of the year, along with predictions from my good friend Nate Muhlbach. Many of you have read Nate's predictions over the past couple of years, and he's back again to challenge me in Bowl Game predictions. We all know how this is going to end, as I've gone 2-0 against him the past two seasons, but it's always fun to let him try! 😂 Enjoy the Bowl Game Predictions!

Autonation Cure Bowl

Tulane vs. Louisiana Lafayette

ALEX

     The Green Wave come into this game having won four of their last five, earning that 6-6 record with tough performances to close out the year. The Ragin' Cajuns fought hard against App State in the Sun Belt Title game, but couldn't top the Mountaineers. This match-up isn't one of the big highlights of bowl season, but they're all special games for the teams involved. Both teams score and give up around the same amount each game, so it will be interesting to see who really steps up to make plays. In a game like this, there's a very important stat I look at, and while it's one of the most basic, it's very telling. Who can stop the run? Tulane gives up 152.6 yards per game while Lafayette gives up 209.8. With the Green Wave averaging 208 on the ground offensively per game, I'm giving them the edge in this one. Tulane wins 30-21.

NATE

     Is this a rivalry? I have no idea. I can’t find anything to indicate that would be the case, and that’s a shame. The two teams from Louisiana sport nearly identical records: 7-6 vs 6-6.  Both the stats and the intangibles seem to favor Tulane just a little bit, as Tulane’s solid rushing attack bumps against Louisiana’s kind of weak run defense. Tulane has also won 4 out of 5 games. This feels like a toss up if I’ve ever seen one, and I’ll trust the stats and the gut.

Tulane: 17, Louisiana: 13

New Mexico Bowl Presented by Progressive

Utah State vs. North Texas

ALEX

     Utah State Head Coach Matt Wells has moved on to Texas Tech, but the Aggies still have a bowl game to play. Interim Coach Frank Maile will lead Utah State against the Mean Green of North Texas, and we could see quite a few points in this one. The Aggies are the top scoring G5 team, and number 3 overall in the nation, averaging 47.2 points per game. Sophomore Quarterback Jordan Love is the primary reason for their success on offense, as he's thrown for more than 3,200 yards this season while completing 65.8% of his passes. He's accounted for 34 total Touchdowns (28 pass, 6 rush) and only thrown 5 picks. He should be (won't be unfortunately) a dark horse Heisman candidate for next season, and will likely rack up big numbers in this game. His counterpart, Mason Fine is also a star, throwing for more than 3,700 yards this season with 27 TDs and just 5 interceptions. This one could turn into a bit of a shootout, but I'm going with Jordan Love and the Aggies. This is going to be an entertaining game to watch. Utah State 44, North Texas 38.

NATE

     I almost thing this is a crime sticking these two well deserving teams against each other on the first Saturday early afternoon, as these teams both had stellar years. In terms of game feel, its two high flying offensives as NT’s Mason Fine and US’s Jordan Love try and outscore each other. I think this is a fairly even match up, but my “Don’t take a G5 team who’s coach just left” corollary has worked out pretty good these last few years, and with Utah State’s Matt Wells becoming the new Texas Tech Head Coach, I think that will hold true.

North Texas: 36, Utah State: 27

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

#21 Fresno State vs. Arizona State

ALEX

     The only story line you really need to know about this game is that star wideout, N'keal Harry, is sitting out to prepare for the draft. This means Arizona State's offense will be extremely one dimensional, and run right into the teeth of Fresno State's stout defense. The Bulldogs are giving up just 13.7 points per game and less than 130 yards rushing on average. Sophomore RB, Eno Benjamin, and the Sun Devils' offense will have a difficult time moving the ball without Harry on the field, but Manny Wilkins will look to relieve some of that stress. The Senior QB has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards with an impressive 19:4 TD to INT ratio this season. His counterpart, Marcus  McMaryion, has thrown for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 TDs and just 3 picks. This QB duel will be fun to watch, but Eno Benjamin will have to have a big day to push ASU over the Bulldogs, and I don't think it'll be enough. Fresno State wins this one 30-17.

NATE

     What a bit of a letdown for Fresno, they were so close to a NY6 bowl before UCF came storming back and now they are playing on Bowl weekend. This is exactly the type of game that we look back on in a week and go “dang how did Arizona State win by 13?” I still don’t know if I’m all in on Herm, but I do like Manny Wilkins, and I have confidence he will lead the Sun Devils to a win.

Arizona State:32, Fresno State: 24

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

Georgia Southern vs. Eastern Michigan

ALEX

     Ball control vs. Clock control in this game. Georgia Southern loves to ground and pound on teams, and there will be no exception today. The GSU Eagles average around 260 yards per game on the ground, and love to control the clock. Eastern Michigan might not have many opportunities with the ball in this game, so they'll have to make the most of it. Luckily for them, they rank #1 in ball security during the season, recording just 5 turnovers the entire year thus far. The Air-Attack from EMU will be a good challenge to GSU, but Eastern Michigan gives up nearly 200 on the ground, and if you can't stop the run, you can't win the game. Georgia Southern wins 28-20.

NATE

     Georgia southern has the 9^th best rushing attack, averaging around 260 yards per game. This is one of those games where the stats say one thing: that Southern should run all over Eastern, but the real life intangibles say another. Eastern has won 5 of their last 6, but I feel like a unit as good as Southern’s rushing attack should get the job done.

Georgia Southern: 24, Eastern Michigan: 15

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State

ALEX

     This game doesn't need much analysis fortunately. Even without Head Coach Scott Satterfield  Middle Tennessee has struggled all season, especially with getting a consistent amount of production out of their offense. Appalachian State will look to dominate this game with suffocating defense and a steady dose of Zac Thomas, the Mountaineer Quarterback. He's thrown for over 1,800 yards to go along with his 18 TDs and 4 interceptions. Their defense gives up just 15.7 points per game, and I'm not sure the Blue Raiders are going hang around in this one for very long. Appalachian State wins this one easily 37-21.

NATE

     Hey look its another coach from a G5 that is hopping to a P5 team, as Scott Satterfield is joining Louisville. This is a big test of my “don’t bet on a G5 team whose coach leaves theory.” App state ranks better than Middle Tennessee in many statistical categories, including big ones like passing defense and third down conversion rates. But I’m still gonna stick with the theory.

Middle Tennessee: 31, App State: 28

Thanks for reading our opening Bowl Game Predictions! Be sure to watch for all my other posts with more predictions! Enjoy the Football!!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando