December 15th Bowl Games

     Hello football fans and welcome to Bowl Season! I've been quite busy over the last couple weeks preparing for graduation, but I will do a season recap post after the national championship game. With my predictions this season, I finished with a 104-77 record. This was down a bit from last year's 63.8% success rate, but 57.5% isn't too bad. Hopefully I can turn it around during the bowl season and come away with some top notch predictions. This post will have my predictions on the first few bowl games of the year, along with predictions from my good friend Nate Muhlbach. Many of you have read Nate's predictions over the past couple of years, and he's back again to challenge me in Bowl Game predictions. We all know how this is going to end, as I've gone 2-0 against him the past two seasons, but it's always fun to let him try! 😂 Enjoy the Bowl Game Predictions!

Autonation Cure Bowl

Tulane vs. Louisiana Lafayette

ALEX

     The Green Wave come into this game having won four of their last five, earning that 6-6 record with tough performances to close out the year. The Ragin' Cajuns fought hard against App State in the Sun Belt Title game, but couldn't top the Mountaineers. This match-up isn't one of the big highlights of bowl season, but they're all special games for the teams involved. Both teams score and give up around the same amount each game, so it will be interesting to see who really steps up to make plays. In a game like this, there's a very important stat I look at, and while it's one of the most basic, it's very telling. Who can stop the run? Tulane gives up 152.6 yards per game while Lafayette gives up 209.8. With the Green Wave averaging 208 on the ground offensively per game, I'm giving them the edge in this one. Tulane wins 30-21.

NATE

     Is this a rivalry? I have no idea. I can’t find anything to indicate that would be the case, and that’s a shame. The two teams from Louisiana sport nearly identical records: 7-6 vs 6-6.  Both the stats and the intangibles seem to favor Tulane just a little bit, as Tulane’s solid rushing attack bumps against Louisiana’s kind of weak run defense. Tulane has also won 4 out of 5 games. This feels like a toss up if I’ve ever seen one, and I’ll trust the stats and the gut.

Tulane: 17, Louisiana: 13

New Mexico Bowl Presented by Progressive

Utah State vs. North Texas

ALEX

     Utah State Head Coach Matt Wells has moved on to Texas Tech, but the Aggies still have a bowl game to play. Interim Coach Frank Maile will lead Utah State against the Mean Green of North Texas, and we could see quite a few points in this one. The Aggies are the top scoring G5 team, and number 3 overall in the nation, averaging 47.2 points per game. Sophomore Quarterback Jordan Love is the primary reason for their success on offense, as he's thrown for more than 3,200 yards this season while completing 65.8% of his passes. He's accounted for 34 total Touchdowns (28 pass, 6 rush) and only thrown 5 picks. He should be (won't be unfortunately) a dark horse Heisman candidate for next season, and will likely rack up big numbers in this game. His counterpart, Mason Fine is also a star, throwing for more than 3,700 yards this season with 27 TDs and just 5 interceptions. This one could turn into a bit of a shootout, but I'm going with Jordan Love and the Aggies. This is going to be an entertaining game to watch. Utah State 44, North Texas 38.

NATE

     I almost thing this is a crime sticking these two well deserving teams against each other on the first Saturday early afternoon, as these teams both had stellar years. In terms of game feel, its two high flying offensives as NT’s Mason Fine and US’s Jordan Love try and outscore each other. I think this is a fairly even match up, but my “Don’t take a G5 team who’s coach just left” corollary has worked out pretty good these last few years, and with Utah State’s Matt Wells becoming the new Texas Tech Head Coach, I think that will hold true.

North Texas: 36, Utah State: 27

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl

#21 Fresno State vs. Arizona State

ALEX

     The only story line you really need to know about this game is that star wideout, N'keal Harry, is sitting out to prepare for the draft. This means Arizona State's offense will be extremely one dimensional, and run right into the teeth of Fresno State's stout defense. The Bulldogs are giving up just 13.7 points per game and less than 130 yards rushing on average. Sophomore RB, Eno Benjamin, and the Sun Devils' offense will have a difficult time moving the ball without Harry on the field, but Manny Wilkins will look to relieve some of that stress. The Senior QB has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards with an impressive 19:4 TD to INT ratio this season. His counterpart, Marcus  McMaryion, has thrown for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 TDs and just 3 picks. This QB duel will be fun to watch, but Eno Benjamin will have to have a big day to push ASU over the Bulldogs, and I don't think it'll be enough. Fresno State wins this one 30-17.

NATE

     What a bit of a letdown for Fresno, they were so close to a NY6 bowl before UCF came storming back and now they are playing on Bowl weekend. This is exactly the type of game that we look back on in a week and go “dang how did Arizona State win by 13?” I still don’t know if I’m all in on Herm, but I do like Manny Wilkins, and I have confidence he will lead the Sun Devils to a win.

Arizona State:32, Fresno State: 24

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

Georgia Southern vs. Eastern Michigan

ALEX

     Ball control vs. Clock control in this game. Georgia Southern loves to ground and pound on teams, and there will be no exception today. The GSU Eagles average around 260 yards per game on the ground, and love to control the clock. Eastern Michigan might not have many opportunities with the ball in this game, so they'll have to make the most of it. Luckily for them, they rank #1 in ball security during the season, recording just 5 turnovers the entire year thus far. The Air-Attack from EMU will be a good challenge to GSU, but Eastern Michigan gives up nearly 200 on the ground, and if you can't stop the run, you can't win the game. Georgia Southern wins 28-20.

NATE

     Georgia southern has the 9^th best rushing attack, averaging around 260 yards per game. This is one of those games where the stats say one thing: that Southern should run all over Eastern, but the real life intangibles say another. Eastern has won 5 of their last 6, but I feel like a unit as good as Southern’s rushing attack should get the job done.

Georgia Southern: 24, Eastern Michigan: 15

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State

ALEX

     This game doesn't need much analysis fortunately. Even without Head Coach Scott Satterfield  Middle Tennessee has struggled all season, especially with getting a consistent amount of production out of their offense. Appalachian State will look to dominate this game with suffocating defense and a steady dose of Zac Thomas, the Mountaineer Quarterback. He's thrown for over 1,800 yards to go along with his 18 TDs and 4 interceptions. Their defense gives up just 15.7 points per game, and I'm not sure the Blue Raiders are going hang around in this one for very long. Appalachian State wins this one easily 37-21.

NATE

     Hey look its another coach from a G5 that is hopping to a P5 team, as Scott Satterfield is joining Louisville. This is a big test of my “don’t bet on a G5 team whose coach leaves theory.” App state ranks better than Middle Tennessee in many statistical categories, including big ones like passing defense and third down conversion rates. But I’m still gonna stick with the theory.

Middle Tennessee: 31, App State: 28

Thanks for reading our opening Bowl Game Predictions! Be sure to watch for all my other posts with more predictions! Enjoy the Football!!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando