December 16 - 22 Bowl Games

    Welcome to the 2023 Bowl Season football fans! Time for wacky bowl names and wondering who is opting in or out. Regardless of that, we have a lot of great matchups to watch as we work our way to the College Football Playoffs. I've got all the bowl predictions you need below, so read on and enjoy some postseason college football.

Conference Championship Record: 7 - 3

Overall 2023 Season Record: 193 - 61 (75.98% Correct)

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Georgia Southern vs Ohio

    The Eagles just snuck into the post season with a 6-6 record, but did lose their final four games. Their air-raid offense ranks 14th in the nation, and despite Senior QB David Brin's 16 interceptions, he's got 22 TDs and completes around 65% of his passes. For the Bobcats, they'll be looking for some new faces on offense to step up as QB Kurtis Rourke, RBs Sieh Bangura & O'Shaan Allison, WRs Miles Cross and Tyler Walton along with a long list of other players are all in the transfer portal and will not be playing. The starting QB, top two rushers (3 with Rourke) and two of the top wideouts are all going to be missing from an offense that averaged nearly 350 yards per game. Give me Georgia Southern with a big game passing and forcing turnovers against an inexperienced offense. Eagles 27, Bobcats 17.

Cricket Celebration Bowl

Howard vs Florida A&M

    Statistically, the Bison and the Rattlers are very similar stats, but with an impressive 11-1 season, the Rattlers are a heavy favorite in this game. These are not teams I'm very familiar with, but I'll give the nod to Florida A&M. Rattlers 35, Bison 14.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Jacksonville State vs Louisiana

    The Gamecocks enjoyed a strong season in their first on as a Division 1 FBS program. Both them and the Ragin' Cajuns have had a number of close games this season. Louisiana just made a bowl game by winning their final game of the season. There's not a whole lot that separates these two statistically, but the turnover margin could be a big factor. The Gamecocks are +9 while the Ragin' Cajuns are -3, so I'll use that for my key factor of the game. Jacksonville State wins 29-24 with some key turnovers.

Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl

Miami (OH) vs Appalachian State

    Both the Redhawks and the Mountaineers made their conference championship games, but only Miami (OH) came out with the title. App State fell 49-23 to the Trojans of Troy, while the Redhawks put on a defensive clinic to beat the Rockets 23-14. Their ground game is quite a force to slow down as well with Sophomore RB Rashad Amos averaging 5.1 yards per carry and with 12 TDs on the season. Junior QB Joey Aguilar leads the Mountaineer offense with more than 3,500 passing yards and 33 TDs with just 9 picks. He could be under a lot of pressure though as the Redhawks have 34 sacks this season. I think they will cause enough pressure to make life difficult for the Mountaineers. Miami (OH) wins 27-20.

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

New Mexico State vs Fresno State

    The Aggies have just a short road trip to Albuquerque as they get to play a bowl game in their home state. Fresno State comes in at 8-4, but lost their last three games of the season. The Aggies couldn't quite keep pace with Liberty in the Conference USA Championship, but still had a very strong season at 10-4 themselves. A big win on the road at Auburn was the primary highlight for Jerry Kill and his squad. The QB battle is what you'll want to watch for in this one. Mikey Keene for the bulldogs has over 2,500 yards with 21 TDs and 9 picks on the season. On the other side, Diego Pavia leads the Aggies in both passing and rushing as he's totaled nearly 4,000 yards this season and racked up 32 total TDs. He'll be a handful for the Bulldogs to slow down and I like the Aggies to win in their home state. New Mexico State 31, Fresno State 21.

Starco Brands LA Bowl

UCLA vs Boise State

    Another team that doesn't have have to travel far for their bowl game is the Bruins of LA. Down by LAX they'll take on the Broncos of Boise State in Inglewood. Unfortunately, there's not many Broncos left for them to play. Boise State has been hit hard by the transfer portal as their QB and top receiver are both gone. UCLA has their own holes to fix though as Freshman QB Dante Moore left, but most other pieces of their offense remain and QB Ethan Garbers has a good amount of playing time this season already. Bruins need a positive note to end on for Chip Kelly spark things up for next year. UCLA wins 30-21.

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Cal vs Texas Tech

    The Golden Bears and Red Raiders square off for a late night shootout. Both squads ended up at 6-6 on the season and have many players in the transfer portal, but most of their key players are still here. This is a really fun matchup between two teams that were somewhat sneaky in their respective conferences, but couldn't quite get over the hump. The rushing attack for both teams will be fun to watch as Cal's Sophomore RB Jaydn Ott has 1,260 yards with 11 TDs on the season and Texas Tech's Tahj Brooks has 1,446 with 9 TDs. Texas Tech ranks 122nd in the nation for turnover margin at -8, and despite them being one of my dark horse teams in the Big XII this season, I'm siding with the Golden Bears. Winners of 3 straight to end the season and make a bowl game. They're on a roll and they beat the Red Raiders 34-27.

Famous Toastery Bowl

Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion

    The Hilltoppers and the Monarchs both have a lot of players in the portal, but most starters are still with the team. WKU is led by Senior QB Austin Reed, who has 3,340 passing yards with 31 TDs to 11 picks. Old Dominion is ranked 87th in pass defense, so they have a difficult task ahead slowing down the air raid from Big Red and the Hilltoppers. Combine that with the fact that WKU has given up just 9 sacks all season and you have a big win for the Hilltoppers. WKU 33, Old Dominion 24.

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

UTSA vs Marshall

    The Roadrunners had another great season, but fell short of the conference championship after a tough loss to Tulane. Marshall was up and down on their way to a 6-6 record, and with the transfer portal taking not only their QB but multiple other players from both sides of the ball, it's likely to end on a sour note. UTSA QB Frank Harris is fun to watch and I think he'll wrap up his collegiate career with a big night. Roadrunners win 38-20.

Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

South Florida vs Syracuse

    The Orange look to be on the rise, but a mediocre season following the injury to star QB Garrett Shrader really put a damper on what could have been. A bowl win would point them in the right direction as they take on the Bulls who also have been very hot and cold. USF Freshman QB Byrum Brown does have over 3,000 yards passing with 23 TDs though, so the Syracuse defense will have their hands full. Success for the Orange lives in the ground game though, and Sophomore RB LeQuint Allen should take care of that with his 4.7 yards per carry and 9 TDs. USF ranks 72nd in the nation in rush defense, so he has opportunity for a big day. Orange beat the Bulls 26-10

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Georgia Tech vs UCF

    The final game on this slate features the passing attack of Georgia Tech (I'm confused as well) against the rushing attack of UCF. The Yellow Jackets have moved away from the old Triple Option game for a few years, but Sophomore QB Haynes King really made their new offense stand out this year with 2,755 passing to go with a 26 to 15 TD:INT ratio. For the Knights, Senior RB RJ Harvey is the player to watch. He's been a PROBLEM for opposing defenses this season racking up nearly 1,300 yards on the ground with a 6.1 average and 16 TDs, which is tied for 6th in the nation. The Yellow Jackets rank 131st in the nation against the run, so look for Harvey to have a big night. UCF wins with the ground attack 28-17.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Georgia Southern covers -3.5 against Ohio

    - As mentioned above the Bobcats entire offense (more or less) is in the transfer portal along with some key defensive players. They do rank 7th against the passing attack, but without key weapons on offense they won't be able to score many points. Eagles win by 4 or more to cover.

2. UCLA covers -4.5 against Boise State

    - Similar to Ohio, the Broncos are missing a majority of their offense in the transfer portal. Combined with UCLA looking to open up the offense in preparations for 2024, I expect them to cover the spread with ease.

3. UTSA moneyline over Marshall

    - Covering the -13 spread on this game isn't far out of reach for the Roadrunners, but if you'd like to bet on the safer side you can go with the moneyline. Marshall is hurt by the portal in key positions (this will be a very good betting metric for bowl season if it works) and the Road Runners have an offense that can score quickly. Frank Harris has a big night to cap off his career and UTSA wins.

Thanks for reading my predictions on the first slate of bowl games! Enjoy some post season college football and look for a BIG TIME recruit to flip to Nebraska next week. GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

2023 College Football Playoff Rankings - CHAOS

     CHAOS! We finally have a year full of pure CHAOS for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. With three undefeated Conference Champions, two 1-loss Conference Champions, and two very deserving 1-loss teams who did not win their conference (honorable mention to Oregon because I believe they are in the mix for best teams, but they needed a win Friday night), you have the makings of a pure, unsolicited CHAOS for the CFB Playoffs. This post will be short and sweet, but I break down what I think will happen, what should happen and my overall top 4 teams. Here we go!

What do I think will happen?

    With so many deserving teams, the CFP Selection Committee has to determine the best four teams. The difference between these words has been difficult to separate over the past few years, but is more important than ever here in 2023. Next year, the problem solves itself. The 12-team playoff opens up and losing in your conference championship or not even playing in it has no matter. But here's what I think happens this year. First and foremost, Michigan and Washington are in. The question is who will be #1? Conventional wisdom says Michigan, but Washington has more ranked wins than the Wolverines, and their conference championship game was actually a challenge. Does that reward the Huskies with the #1 overall seed? This is something to consider because of the potential matchups. The real question comes with Florida State. Are they deserving? Yes, 13-0 with a conference championship has been a consistent standard for the committee to put a team in to the playoffs. However, without Jordan Travis at QB, are they one of the 4 best? This is the catch. They have a championship-caliber defense, but so does Iowa (arguably even my Huskers at times). Texas and Alabama both have the firepower on offense to match their defenses. Yes, Tate Rodemaker would be back for the semifinal/bowl game, but is that enough? He's not Jordan Travis and they struggled against an okay but not great Florida team in his lone start. The Playoff Committee would be head hunted by a mob if they leave out the SEC and you can't put them in with out putting in Texas because of the head-to-head win. Ohio State and Georgia are great teams, but don't have enough to be considered this scenario.

What do I think will happen? They bump out Florida State because of their lack of offense in the last couple games and the committee does not believe they are one of the BEST teams without Jordan Travis. They break their own precedent and put in Texas and Alabama.

1. Michigan

2. Washington

3. Texas

4. Alabama

What should happen?

    The deserving and best argument again make this very difficult. Florida State could easily be overlooked because of their QB injuries, but they have had a tremendous season and I've been saying from the onset of the season, they are one of the best four teams. They had a more impressive win against LSU than Alabama did and won a variety of close games both on the road and at home, just like Washington. Michigan looked fairly dominant all season, but had lackluster competition apart from Ohio State and Penn State. Texas' win over Alabama on the road in Tuscaloosa cannot and should not be overlooked. However, Alabama and Texas are playing some of the best football in the country right now. Georgia and Ohio State are both quality teams and could easily be favored in a game against Florida State, Texas or Washington, maybe even Michigan (at least for UGA).

What should happen?

1. Washington

2. Michigan

3. Florida State

4. Texas

Who are my four best teams?

1. Washington

2. Michigan

3. Texas

4. Alabama

I HATE leaving Florida State out, but without Jordan Travis, they are not one of the four best. They are more than deserving of a spot, but I think this is the best slate of 4 teams to get great games in all the semifinals and the finals. Thanks for reading my thoughts on the College Football Playoff Rankings. Anxious to see what happens today!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Conference Championship Predictions

     Happy Championship Week! Somehow, some way, another college football regular season has come to a close as we look to crown the various conference champions, some for the final time as conference realignment will make this week look very different next year. There's a lot to break down ahead of the big games this weekend, most of which could cause some big shake ups in the final College Football Playoff Rankings. However, before we get to this week's games, I'll give my thoughts on the disappointing Husker game that took place just a week ago as the Hawkeyes won yet again on a walk-off field goal. I'll do a full season recap once we get out of bowl season, but some other teams still have football to play!

    The Huskers and the Hawkeyes battled on a chilly Black Friday morning, and despite numerous chances for the Huskers to walk away with a victory, they once again gave the game up to the Hawkeyes in the final moments. Neither team honestly looked like they wanted to win the game as questionable play calls and poorly timed turnovers made up a majority of the fourth quarter. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories broken down below.

GOOD - Phalen Sanford & the Blackshirts. Overall, the defense played very well apart from that one gashing run with just seconds left. Unfortunately a missed tackle led to the Hawkeyes getting into field goal range. Apart from that though, the defense was fantastic. They had 3 tackles for loss, a sack and 7 passes deflected while forcing 7 Iowa punts and blocking 2 field goals. Giving up just 13 points in this one and an average of 18.3 on the season, you should be winning a majority of your games. I also want to give a specific shoutout to Husker DB Phalen Sanford. The senior former walk-on who started his career at Hastings College was sensational throughout the game and a lot of his impact won't show up in the stat sheet. In addition to his constant efforts on special teams throughout the year, Sanford recorded 9 total tackles against the Hawkeyes and made some big time stops at the line of scrimmage. Some of his best plays came when Iowa tried to stretch the run game out to the edge and he did a wonderful job of sealing them back inside by beating the block of the pulling lineman and letting the running back fall back into the arms of his Blackshirt teammates chasing him down. A true overlooked hero on the defense and special teams this year, but to me his contributions did not go unnoticed!

EXPECTED - Solid game from Chubba Purdy and the field position battle. Making his second start of the season, Purdy had played about how I would expect. There were some very unfortunate and frustrating turnovers, but the offense looked much smoother under his control. Most of his passes were accurate and in a good place of his receivers to make a play. More importantly, when he didn't have anyone open and was under pressure, he made the smart decision multiple times to throw the ball out of bounds and move onto the next play. This is not something we have seen from the other QBs in the room and although the offense didn't perform up to a desired standard, I have a hard time believing their wouldn't be more turnovers with someone else under center. The other expected aspect of this game was the importance of field position. With two horrible offensive attacks against two of the best defenses in the country, penalties, turnovers and special teams were going to truly decide the outcome and playing smart with field position needed to be a priority.

BAD - Timeouts and not using Emmett Johnson. Looking big picture, this category could start being called just BAD Coaching decisions as Matt Rhule has a lot of blame to shoulder for these final three games. One of the few bright spots in the Husker offense has been Emmett Johnson. I'm sure the ware and tear of a long season has to factor into some of this, but after a career high of 17 carries against Maryland, Wisconsin was followed up with 13 and then just 11 against Iowa. I understand that the Hawkeye defense is not an easy one to move on, but giving your best weapons the ball is how you win football games. I think he could've done some more damage if given more than 11 carries. The bigger issue lies with the use of timeouts throughout not only this game, but the entirety of the season. I'll have to go back and find some stats, but I'd argue that close to every game this season had the Huskers taking an unnecessary timeout on offense to prevent a delay of game penalty. Also, another (very crucial 2nd half timeout) was used for the same reason after Nebraska lined up for what looked to be the attempt of a 60 yard field goal into the wind. Tristian Alvano didn't even run out onto the field for this because he was as confused as the fans on why this would even be a thing. Matt Rhule said it was going to potentially be a fake 60 yard field goal and somehow everyone has just been okay with that answer. No one should ever believe a fake 60 yard field goal into the wind will be a thing, and wasting a timeout just to punt and pin the opponent deep inside the 10 is idiotic when you know it's going to be a close game late in the 4th and saving your timeouts might be useful. I really hope to see better management of that next year.

    Overall the Husker season went exactly as I thought: 4-5 wins and I accurately predicted them at the beginning of the year apart from flipping Illinois and Iowa. It was certainly a frustrating season at times, especially the last month, knowing how simple it would be for the Huskers to win some of those games, only to lose them at the end. We'll see how the offseason goes and what year two brings. Luckily, Defensive Coordinator Tony White will be staying put for now as the Huskers restructured his contract this week. Smart decision!

Rivalry Week Record: 21 - 6

Overall Record: 186 - 61

Conference Championship Predictions:

New Mexico State vs. #24 Liberty (Conference USA Championship)

    The Aggies are looking to pull another upset as Liberty is heavily favored in this game, coming in at 12-0. Both teams have dynamic offenses, but New Mexico State's offensive production all relies on star QB Diego Pavia. The Junior has nearly 2,800 passing yards with 23 TDs and just 8 picks, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 TDs. Liberty's offense has a few more weapons with the Sophomore/Junior/Junior trio of Kaidon Salter at QB (2,431 passing yards with 29 TDs and 5 picks), Quinton Cooley at RB (1,251 rushing yards with 13 TDs) and CJ Daniels at WR (831 yards with 9 TDs). This one could be a shoot out, but I like the Flames to take it home. Liberty wins 40-28.

#5 Oregon vs. #3 Washington (PAC-12 Championship) ($)

    The final chapter of the PAC-12 is written tonight as the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies rematch for the final crown and a likely spot in the College Football Playoffs. The Ducks fell to the Huskies by 3 on the road in mid-October, but are favored by 9.5 in the rematch. They've been playing arguably the best football in the nation since that loss. We've got two presumed Heisman finalists battling in this game with Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. The stats speak for themselves with both of these players, but the leadership on the field and helping will these teams to every victory is really what matters. Both offenses are going to bring their weapons, which means we need to look at the defensive side of the ball to see who will win. In the first matchup, Oregon actually won most every big stat on defense that you need, but being stopped 0/3 on 4th down was a big difference maker. Since that loss though, the ducks have racked up 13 sacks, and will look to create more pressure on Michael Penix Jr. and slow down the dynamic passing attack. This should be another fantastic matchup and I honestly wouldn't be upset with both teams going into the playoffs. That only has a chance if Oregon wins though, and my number one rule in College Football is that you NEVER want to play a team twice in one season. The Ducks win the final PAC 12 Championship with a phenomenal game over the Huskies 34-24.

#18 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Texas (Big XII Championship)

    Somehow, the Pokes found their way into the Big XII Championship. It took a double-digit comeback and overtime against BYU to make it happen, but now they square off against the Texas Longhorns who are looking to make a major Playoff argument with a big win. They will need to slowdown star RB Ollie Gordon III, and that's no easy task. Gordon averages 6.4 yards per carry and has 20 TDs on the ground this season. Texas ranks 5th in rush defense, and while they've been tested a few times this season, they continue to come out on top and have put up a few dominant performances. There's the added drama of the Longhorn carcass that was found outside of an Oklahoma State Fraternity this morning, an investigation is still going. I've been waiting for Texas to stumble again all year long, but they seem to be very poised this year. Oklahoma State has been very volatile and it's tough to trust them this season. I hate wanting Texas to win, but it gives the Playoff Committee more of a challenge, and that sparks chaos. Hook 'Em as Texas walks out of the Big XII as a Champion with a 33-21 victory.

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (MAC Championship)

    The Rockets are looking to defend their 2022 Title as they take on the Redhawks of Miami (OH). They won by 4 in the first meeting of the season, on the road with a 21-17 victory. This game gives me some fits because I want to follow my rule of never wanting to play a team twice in the same year, but I also think the experience of this game plays a big factor in the matchup. The Rockets have a dynamic ground game behind RB Peny Boone, and with his 7.4 yard per carry average, they gash opposing defenses. Miami (OH) will need to slow him down again as he rushed for just 73 against them the first time. Asking to do that twice in a year is tough, just like beating the same team is. You could go either direction on this game, but I'll take the Rockets and test my rule. Toledo wins the MAC 26-21.

Boise State vs. UNLV (Mountain West Championship)

    The Broncos and the Rebels meet after a very crowded 3-way tie atop the Mountain West. Boise State struggled early in the season, but found some rhythm with key wins against San Jose State and Wyoming. They're led by Sophomore RB Ashton Jeanty, who has 1,109 yards with 13 TDs on the ground this season. UNLV has been a dominant force up until the last few weeks, winning a close one against Air Force and falling to San Jose State in the final regular season game. Junior WR Ricky White is their best player with 1,300 yards and 7 TDs. Boise State ranks 117th in pass defense in the nation, so he should have a big day and help UNLV win the Mountain West crown. Rebels 38, Broncos 30.

#1 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama (SEC Championship)

    Can the Tide do the most chaotic thing possible and upset Georgia in front of the College Football Playoff Committee? This SEC Championship carries a tremendous amount of weight as Bama looks to get back into the Playoffs after escaping Auburn with a sensational 30+ 4th and Goal conversion last weekend. The Bulldogs had a couple headaches of their own with the Ramblin' Wreck, but managed an 8 point win to finish off another perfect season. They are looking for their 30th straight win, but there's Nick Saban standing in the way. They've done it before, but Jalen Milroe and the Bama offense are still hot. My biggest factor to watch is the pressure on Georgia QB Carson Beck. He hasn't been under much pressure this season, but that isn't likely to be the case with Alabama. I think they're going to dial up a lot of pressure on the young QB and force him into mistakes. The Playoff Committee would have a very difficult decision to make if Bama wins, and I have a hard time not picking them in this game. I think Nick Saban is ready for some revenge and they beat Georgia 39-37. Roll Tide!

SMU vs. #22 Tulane (American Conference Championship) ($)

    The Mustangs and the Green Wave meet in what could be the highest scoring game of the weekend. SMU ranks 4th in the nation, averaging over 41 points per game. The Green Wave rank 17th in scoring defense, but I think it could be all offense in this one. The QB battle will be fun to watch as Preston Stone and Michael Pratt both have tremendous receivers to throw to. Tulane has been the team to beat the last couple years in this conference, and are looking for another New Year's Six Bowl, but I think this one goes to the Ponies. Too much offense and SMU wins this 45-38.

Appalachian State vs. Troy (Sun Belt Conference Championship)

    Not a whole lot to look at here other than the QBs, but watch out for the sneaky App State defense. They made some big plays in the upset, overtime win against James Madison and will cause havoc in the backfield. Troy brings a very balanced attack to the game though as Junior RB Kimani Vidal has been grinding all season for nearly 1,400 yards and 9 TDs. Look to him in the red zone and look for Troy to pull away late with the ground game. Trojans win 28-20.

#2 Michigan vs. #16 Iowa (BIG 10 Championship)

    The Hawkeyes will look to keep this one close as their offense isn't likely to do much against the Wolverine defense. They're a disciplined team though, and the lack of penalties and dumb plays always keeps them in the game. JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum should be ready to roll in this one, and I think Harbaugh puts a statement down in his first game back from suspension. Not sure this one will be very pretty by the end of it, but it's BIG 10 Football and the Wolverines win 35-7.

#14 Louisville vs. #4 Florida State (ACC Championship)

    The final game of the night features the ACC matchup of Louisville and Florida State. Jeff Brohm has been fantastic in his first year with the Cardinals, going 10-2 and taking the team to their first ACC Championship. They take on the unbeaten Seminoles who may be looking at a third string QB as Tate Rodemaker is questionable with a possible concussion. The Cardinals fell to rival Kentucky last week, so they're fired up, but FSU has Playoff hopes with a win, and can't afford a loss with so many teams on their heels. FSU defense makes some plays and the 'Noles win this one 23-14.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Oregon Moneyline over Washington

    I always say you never want to play a team twice, and this is a game where it really rings true. Since their first meeting, Washington has had a number of close games where they had to gut it out and get the win. Oregon has been DOMINANT and rolling through opponents. Look for the Ducks to make a statement in this game.

2. SMU vs. Tulane - Over in total points (47.5)

    As mentioned before, the Ponies score 41.8 on their own, with Michael Pratt in the mix for Tulane, this game should hit the over and I like the Ponies to win it as well.

Thanks for reading my Conference Championship Predictions and enjoy the football this weekend!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando