Happy Championship Week! Somehow, some way, another college football regular season has come to a close as we look to crown the various conference champions, some for the final time as conference realignment will make this week look very different next year. There's a lot to break down ahead of the big games this weekend, most of which could cause some big shake ups in the final College Football Playoff Rankings. However, before we get to this week's games, I'll give my thoughts on the disappointing Husker game that took place just a week ago as the Hawkeyes won yet again on a walk-off field goal. I'll do a full season recap once we get out of bowl season, but some other teams still have football to play!
The Huskers and the Hawkeyes battled on a chilly Black Friday morning, and despite numerous chances for the Huskers to walk away with a victory, they once again gave the game up to the Hawkeyes in the final moments. Neither team honestly looked like they wanted to win the game as questionable play calls and poorly timed turnovers made up a majority of the fourth quarter. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories broken down below.
GOOD - Phalen Sanford & the Blackshirts. Overall, the defense played very well apart from that one gashing run with just seconds left. Unfortunately a missed tackle led to the Hawkeyes getting into field goal range. Apart from that though, the defense was fantastic. They had 3 tackles for loss, a sack and 7 passes deflected while forcing 7 Iowa punts and blocking 2 field goals. Giving up just 13 points in this one and an average of 18.3 on the season, you should be winning a majority of your games. I also want to give a specific shoutout to Husker DB Phalen Sanford. The senior former walk-on who started his career at Hastings College was sensational throughout the game and a lot of his impact won't show up in the stat sheet. In addition to his constant efforts on special teams throughout the year, Sanford recorded 9 total tackles against the Hawkeyes and made some big time stops at the line of scrimmage. Some of his best plays came when Iowa tried to stretch the run game out to the edge and he did a wonderful job of sealing them back inside by beating the block of the pulling lineman and letting the running back fall back into the arms of his Blackshirt teammates chasing him down. A true overlooked hero on the defense and special teams this year, but to me his contributions did not go unnoticed!
EXPECTED - Solid game from Chubba Purdy and the field position battle. Making his second start of the season, Purdy had played about how I would expect. There were some very unfortunate and frustrating turnovers, but the offense looked much smoother under his control. Most of his passes were accurate and in a good place of his receivers to make a play. More importantly, when he didn't have anyone open and was under pressure, he made the smart decision multiple times to throw the ball out of bounds and move onto the next play. This is not something we have seen from the other QBs in the room and although the offense didn't perform up to a desired standard, I have a hard time believing their wouldn't be more turnovers with someone else under center. The other expected aspect of this game was the importance of field position. With two horrible offensive attacks against two of the best defenses in the country, penalties, turnovers and special teams were going to truly decide the outcome and playing smart with field position needed to be a priority.
BAD - Timeouts and not using Emmett Johnson. Looking big picture, this category could start being called just BAD Coaching decisions as Matt Rhule has a lot of blame to shoulder for these final three games. One of the few bright spots in the Husker offense has been Emmett Johnson. I'm sure the ware and tear of a long season has to factor into some of this, but after a career high of 17 carries against Maryland, Wisconsin was followed up with 13 and then just 11 against Iowa. I understand that the Hawkeye defense is not an easy one to move on, but giving your best weapons the ball is how you win football games. I think he could've done some more damage if given more than 11 carries. The bigger issue lies with the use of timeouts throughout not only this game, but the entirety of the season. I'll have to go back and find some stats, but I'd argue that close to every game this season had the Huskers taking an unnecessary timeout on offense to prevent a delay of game penalty. Also, another (very crucial 2nd half timeout) was used for the same reason after Nebraska lined up for what looked to be the attempt of a 60 yard field goal into the wind. Tristian Alvano didn't even run out onto the field for this because he was as confused as the fans on why this would even be a thing. Matt Rhule said it was going to potentially be a fake 60 yard field goal and somehow everyone has just been okay with that answer. No one should ever believe a fake 60 yard field goal into the wind will be a thing, and wasting a timeout just to punt and pin the opponent deep inside the 10 is idiotic when you know it's going to be a close game late in the 4th and saving your timeouts might be useful. I really hope to see better management of that next year.
Overall the Husker season went exactly as I thought: 4-5 wins and I accurately predicted them at the beginning of the year apart from flipping Illinois and Iowa. It was certainly a frustrating season at times, especially the last month, knowing how simple it would be for the Huskers to win some of those games, only to lose them at the end. We'll see how the offseason goes and what year two brings. Luckily, Defensive Coordinator Tony White will be staying put for now as the Huskers restructured his contract this week. Smart decision!
Rivalry Week Record: 21 - 6
Overall Record: 186 - 61
Conference Championship Predictions:
New Mexico State vs. #24 Liberty (Conference USA Championship)
The Aggies are looking to pull another upset as Liberty is heavily favored in this game, coming in at 12-0. Both teams have dynamic offenses, but New Mexico State's offensive production all relies on star QB Diego Pavia. The Junior has nearly 2,800 passing yards with 23 TDs and just 8 picks, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 TDs. Liberty's offense has a few more weapons with the Sophomore/Junior/Junior trio of Kaidon Salter at QB (2,431 passing yards with 29 TDs and 5 picks), Quinton Cooley at RB (1,251 rushing yards with 13 TDs) and CJ Daniels at WR (831 yards with 9 TDs). This one could be a shoot out, but I like the Flames to take it home. Liberty wins 40-28.
#5 Oregon vs. #3 Washington (PAC-12 Championship) ($)
The final chapter of the PAC-12 is written tonight as the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies rematch for the final crown and a likely spot in the College Football Playoffs. The Ducks fell to the Huskies by 3 on the road in mid-October, but are favored by 9.5 in the rematch. They've been playing arguably the best football in the nation since that loss. We've got two presumed Heisman finalists battling in this game with Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. The stats speak for themselves with both of these players, but the leadership on the field and helping will these teams to every victory is really what matters. Both offenses are going to bring their weapons, which means we need to look at the defensive side of the ball to see who will win. In the first matchup, Oregon actually won most every big stat on defense that you need, but being stopped 0/3 on 4th down was a big difference maker. Since that loss though, the ducks have racked up 13 sacks, and will look to create more pressure on Michael Penix Jr. and slow down the dynamic passing attack. This should be another fantastic matchup and I honestly wouldn't be upset with both teams going into the playoffs. That only has a chance if Oregon wins though, and my number one rule in College Football is that you NEVER want to play a team twice in one season. The Ducks win the final PAC 12 Championship with a phenomenal game over the Huskies 34-24.
#18 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Texas (Big XII Championship)
Somehow, the Pokes found their way into the Big XII Championship. It took a double-digit comeback and overtime against BYU to make it happen, but now they square off against the Texas Longhorns who are looking to make a major Playoff argument with a big win. They will need to slowdown star RB Ollie Gordon III, and that's no easy task. Gordon averages 6.4 yards per carry and has 20 TDs on the ground this season. Texas ranks 5th in rush defense, and while they've been tested a few times this season, they continue to come out on top and have put up a few dominant performances. There's the added drama of the Longhorn carcass that was found outside of an Oklahoma State Fraternity this morning, an investigation is still going. I've been waiting for Texas to stumble again all year long, but they seem to be very poised this year. Oklahoma State has been very volatile and it's tough to trust them this season. I hate wanting Texas to win, but it gives the Playoff Committee more of a challenge, and that sparks chaos. Hook 'Em as Texas walks out of the Big XII as a Champion with a 33-21 victory.
Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (MAC Championship)
The Rockets are looking to defend their 2022 Title as they take on the Redhawks of Miami (OH). They won by 4 in the first meeting of the season, on the road with a 21-17 victory. This game gives me some fits because I want to follow my rule of never wanting to play a team twice in the same year, but I also think the experience of this game plays a big factor in the matchup. The Rockets have a dynamic ground game behind RB Peny Boone, and with his 7.4 yard per carry average, they gash opposing defenses. Miami (OH) will need to slow him down again as he rushed for just 73 against them the first time. Asking to do that twice in a year is tough, just like beating the same team is. You could go either direction on this game, but I'll take the Rockets and test my rule. Toledo wins the MAC 26-21.
Boise State vs. UNLV (Mountain West Championship)
The Broncos and the Rebels meet after a very crowded 3-way tie atop the Mountain West. Boise State struggled early in the season, but found some rhythm with key wins against San Jose State and Wyoming. They're led by Sophomore RB Ashton Jeanty, who has 1,109 yards with 13 TDs on the ground this season. UNLV has been a dominant force up until the last few weeks, winning a close one against Air Force and falling to San Jose State in the final regular season game. Junior WR Ricky White is their best player with 1,300 yards and 7 TDs. Boise State ranks 117th in pass defense in the nation, so he should have a big day and help UNLV win the Mountain West crown. Rebels 38, Broncos 30.
#1 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama (SEC Championship)
Can the Tide do the most chaotic thing possible and upset Georgia in front of the College Football Playoff Committee? This SEC Championship carries a tremendous amount of weight as Bama looks to get back into the Playoffs after escaping Auburn with a sensational 30+ 4th and Goal conversion last weekend. The Bulldogs had a couple headaches of their own with the Ramblin' Wreck, but managed an 8 point win to finish off another perfect season. They are looking for their 30th straight win, but there's Nick Saban standing in the way. They've done it before, but Jalen Milroe and the Bama offense are still hot. My biggest factor to watch is the pressure on Georgia QB Carson Beck. He hasn't been under much pressure this season, but that isn't likely to be the case with Alabama. I think they're going to dial up a lot of pressure on the young QB and force him into mistakes. The Playoff Committee would have a very difficult decision to make if Bama wins, and I have a hard time not picking them in this game. I think Nick Saban is ready for some revenge and they beat Georgia 39-37. Roll Tide!
SMU vs. #22 Tulane (American Conference Championship) ($)
The Mustangs and the Green Wave meet in what could be the highest scoring game of the weekend. SMU ranks 4th in the nation, averaging over 41 points per game. The Green Wave rank 17th in scoring defense, but I think it could be all offense in this one. The QB battle will be fun to watch as Preston Stone and Michael Pratt both have tremendous receivers to throw to. Tulane has been the team to beat the last couple years in this conference, and are looking for another New Year's Six Bowl, but I think this one goes to the Ponies. Too much offense and SMU wins this 45-38.
Appalachian State vs. Troy (Sun Belt Conference Championship)
Not a whole lot to look at here other than the QBs, but watch out for the sneaky App State defense. They made some big plays in the upset, overtime win against James Madison and will cause havoc in the backfield. Troy brings a very balanced attack to the game though as Junior RB Kimani Vidal has been grinding all season for nearly 1,400 yards and 9 TDs. Look to him in the red zone and look for Troy to pull away late with the ground game. Trojans win 28-20.
#2 Michigan vs. #16 Iowa (BIG 10 Championship)
The Hawkeyes will look to keep this one close as their offense isn't likely to do much against the Wolverine defense. They're a disciplined team though, and the lack of penalties and dumb plays always keeps them in the game. JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum should be ready to roll in this one, and I think Harbaugh puts a statement down in his first game back from suspension. Not sure this one will be very pretty by the end of it, but it's BIG 10 Football and the Wolverines win 35-7.
#14 Louisville vs. #4 Florida State (ACC Championship)
The final game of the night features the ACC matchup of Louisville and Florida State. Jeff Brohm has been fantastic in his first year with the Cardinals, going 10-2 and taking the team to their first ACC Championship. They take on the unbeaten Seminoles who may be looking at a third string QB as Tate Rodemaker is questionable with a possible concussion. The Cardinals fell to rival Kentucky last week, so they're fired up, but FSU has Playoff hopes with a win, and can't afford a loss with so many teams on their heels. FSU defense makes some plays and the 'Noles win this one 23-14.
The Perfect Parlay:
1. Oregon Moneyline over Washington
I always say you never want to play a team twice, and this is a game where it really rings true. Since their first meeting, Washington has had a number of close games where they had to gut it out and get the win. Oregon has been DOMINANT and rolling through opponents. Look for the Ducks to make a statement in this game.
2. SMU vs. Tulane - Over in total points (47.5)
As mentioned before, the Ponies score 41.8 on their own, with Michael Pratt in the mix for Tulane, this game should hit the over and I like the Ponies to win it as well.
Thanks for reading my Conference Championship Predictions and enjoy the football this weekend!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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