November Football is upon us and this weekend is primed to be one of the best over the past few seasons. A phenomenal slate of games awaits us and my Huskers get to kick us off on Friday night. With the first CFP Rankings released, teams now know what kinds of statements they need to make in order to move up in the rankings. I'll give my thoughts on Nebraska's loss to Washington along with some things from around the nation, then run through the full weekend of games. Let's get into it!
The Huskers did everything right for 3 and a half quarters for the third game in a row. Out gained Washington by 120 yards, held them to 33% conversion rate on third down and Nebraska was averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Of course, none of that mattered once an opportunity to win the game presented itself, and the Huskers got spooked on Halloween Night. First and goal at the 5 with a chance to go up 11 points and the Huskers turn that into a delay of game, two incomplete passes and a failed QB draw that lost 8 yards, setting up a missed field goal. Washington decided to end the game a different way, utilizing a 12 play, 81 yard drive that featured a 3rd and 15 scramble for a first down and a phenomenal 4th & 18 throw and catch, to take the lead late in the game. Nebraska wanted to twist the proverbial knife a bit more for their fans, so a 48-yard pick six sealed what Husker fans already knew to be a finished game. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown below, read along if you can stomach it.
GOOD - The Blackout atmosphere. Once again, Husker fans delivered. Memorial Stadium was rocking on Saturday night and with the Blackshirts logo on midfield, the scene was spectacular. Husker fans were ready to move past the previous two botched 4th quarters, and celebrate a special night in Lincoln. I've got some photos posted below and it was very fun to be part of.
EXPECTED - Great 3 quarters, basic strategy ignored and a 4th quarter collapse. As mentioned above, Nebraska owned every major statistic in this game apart from turnovers. Despite two drive killing picks early in the 1st quarter, they didn't do much damage to the Huskers. At halftime Nebraska had 93 rushing yards to Washington's 8, but ignored the run game in the second half. Jamal Rule was the leading rusher with 72 yards and averaged 5.5 yards per carry, but didn't touch the ball once in the 3rd quarter. When he finally got carries again in the 4th, he helped the Huskers to that 1st and goal at the 5, but instead of having a play ready for your back, the Huskers take a delay of game and were completely unprepared in the red zone. I'm not sure why it still hurts so much watching this team snatch defeat from the jaws of victory week after week when you know how it will end, but we will do it again and again, over and over. That's the Husker way.
BAD - Fans angry enough to throw trash on the field. I've been a Husker fan my whole life, my Mom raised me on Nebraska Football. Never in my life did the thought even cross my mind that the "Greatest Fans in College Football" would get to a breaking point of throwing trash on the field. I don't condone those actions in any way, shape or form (especially since one of my students had part of a beer dumped on her because of this while shooting photos on the sideline), but I understand the frustration level that got us here. The fans have given everything. The fans have continued with unwavering support for decades, simply asking for competent football at this point, not even worrying about championships. They want a program they can be proud of, especially with the extra money being asked of them to support it. The fact that we're at this point, the fans' breaking point, is bad. It's bad for the Huskers, it's bad for Matt Rhule and it's bad for College Football. I'm not sure Rhule can win them back, but we'll see what happens.
Week 9 Thoughts:
- Miami survives, but looks shaky.
- Gophers nearly pull the upset, Indiana looks unsteady as well. Also, back-to-back 60 field goals is nuts.
- Utah flexes, BYU manages. Utes looking the part while the Cougars need to step up.
- Arizona falls short in Lubbock, but what a day from Thomas Castellanos. Red Raiders still in the mix.
- Wake is a very good football team, no matter what the CFP ranks them.
- Sad SMU Ponies and sad Northwestern Wildcats. Raiola throws for 336 and 3 TDs, can Husker fans have anything nice?
- Texas State at Boise was the game of the day, absolutely wild.
- Oregon State fell flat out of the bye but what a win by Fresno State.
- USC stays alive and Ohio State has issues.
- Iowa State is one of the toughest playing teams in the nation. No reason they should be .500 but they may make a bowl. Well done Cyclones.
- CFP rankings favoring SEC teams is no surprise, but still annoying. PLEASE WATCH THE GAMES!
Week 9 Results: 17 - 10
Overall Results: 139 - 87
Week 10 Predictions:
Virginia Tech at SMU
The Hokies and the Ponies have missed some opportunities this year and find themselves squaring off at 6-2. SMU is coming off a 3 point loss on the road to Syracuse as their run game and defense really struggled. Virginia Tech is off a bye, but riding a two game win streak. James Franklin certainly has VT on a much better path, but a win in Dallas won't be easy. Kevin Jennings has been picking apart opposing secondaries, and the Hokies rank 78th in pass defense, allowing 218 yards through the air per game. Jennings should put up more than that and I think SMU gets back on track with a 30-21 win.
#9 BYU at #3 Utah (Holy War - Battle for the Beehive Boot)
A 10 AM local time kickoff for the Holy War as BYU travels North 45 minutes to Salt Lake City. This game features two dynamic, dual-threat quarterbacks who always seem to make the big play. Utah's Devon Dampier has 2,269 total yards and 23 total TDs on the season while BYU's Bear Bachmeier isn't far behind with 2,086 yards and 19 total TDs. The BYU defense has shown up in big spots, but have been leaky at times. Utah's defense does nothing but smother opponents, but don't be surprised if the BYU wideouts get free for a big play. I've enjoyed watching both these teams this year, and I think both have playoff caliber if they play at their best level. Toss up choice, but I picked BYU to be in the playoff in my preseason prediction, so give me the Cougars to win 23-21.
#7 Texas at #18 Missouri
Texas has lost their star running back Hollywood Smothers to a torn MCL going into this game, and Arch Manning won't be the best Quarterback on the field. Mizzou's Austin Simmons out ranks Manning in every category, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards with 16 TDs and just 2 picks. He'll likely face a tremendous pass rush, so look for the Mizzou run game to set the pace. If they don't get going early, it could be along day. As much as I want the upset here, I know Mizzou doesn't win the big games. Hook 'Em with a road win 34-21.
#8 UCLA at Minnesota
The Bruins aren't getting much respect from the CFP despite their unblemished record, but a conference road win gives them a great opportunity to make a statement. This is also an extremely dangerous spot as we start November, and teams always lose in November, especially on the road. Minnesota just fell short against Indiana last week, but made the College Gameday selection much more interesting than originally advertised. The Gophers were very up and down through October, defeating both Michigan and Iowa but also losing to Purdue in addition to Indiana. Quarterback Drake Lindsey is the engine of this offense, but they're typically slow moving. Up against a UCLA defense allowing just 13.4 points per game, things won't be easy in this one. Minnesota's defense will need to force some turnovers if they want a chance at pulling the upset. November is when ranked teams on the road tend to lose, but I'm sticking with UCLA and their power run game. Bruins 21, Gophers 17.
Texas A&M at #21 South Carolina
The Gamecocks have new life in the back half of the season, riding a three game win streak since losing in overtime to Kentucky. LaNorris Sellers has some swagger back after throwing for 790 and 8 TDs over those 3 games. He does have 3 picks over those games, and that's really A&M's only chance to pull an upset. The Aggies don't have many takeaways on the season, sitting at a -1 turnover margin. Marcel Reed has really struggled this season, throwing 8 TDs and 8 picks. The Aggies offense will face a heavy pass rush from South Carolina and I don't think they'll keep up with their offense. Lots of points for the Gamecocks as they win 38-20.
#5 Alabama at #14 LSU
Alabama travels to Death Valley and I can't remember the last time this matchup wasn't a night game. Regardless, the atmosphere will always be rocking in Baton Rouge, especially with CFP opportunities tied to this game. For some unknown reason (other than CFP Committee bias), Bama is ranked 5 with 2 losses. LSU is back at 14, but can jump back into the mix with a win over the Tide. Texas and Tennessee await the Tigers after this one, so still a lot of shuffling to do in the month of November. Alabama has a number of injuries across their team, ranking from star wideout to Ryan Coleman-Williams and defensive back Zabien Brown. They're missing a couple of linemen too, and if those players are unable to play, LSU has a big advantage to focus their attention on Keelon Russell. The Tigers rank 2nd in sacks with 34 on the year, so Bama's front will need to be ready for a heavy rush. Keelon Russell showed he can get flustered quickly with a pass rush against Tennessee where the Vols had 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss in their 16 point win. Offensively for LSU, I expect Lane Kiffin to have a big game plan for this one. Geaux Tigers 27-17.
#23 Oregon at #12 Ohio State
Somehow we ended up with a ranked matchup for this game, but it's not the top 5 showdown we anticipated at the beginning of the season. Both the Ducks and the Buckeyes have 2 losses, and a third one here is likely to knock them out of the playoffs. Dylan Raiola stepped up last week for 336 yards and 3 TDs against Northwestern, but on the road in the Horseshoe is a different story. Ohio State is coming off a loss to USC where they out gained the Trojans, went nearly 50% on third down conversions and dominated time of possession, but just could not punch it into the endzone. The offense has sputtered a bit since losing Julian Sayin at quarterback, so all eyes are on Luke Fahey to see if he can step up and lead this team down the stretch. Defensively, both of these teams have talent, but tend to give up big plays. I'll trust the Buckeyes at home though to force a couple of turnovers, because they will likely blitz Raiola to rattle him. Ohio State 30, Oregon 21.
#6 Kentucky at #13 Tennessee
A big time battle on Rocky Top as Tennessee goes dark mode with their black jerseys. The Vols have dominated this series, suffering just 3 losses since 1984. The Wildcats are looking to prove this season is something special, and keep themselves in the SEC and CFP races. Tennessee has proven me wrong a couple of times this season, but I'm still not sure I'm bought in on this team. Their only win against a team with a winning record is against Alabama (which was impressive), but they've struggled to move the ball against better teams. Kentucky's defense isn't their strength though, and if they give Tennessee a short field with a turnover or two it could get away from them quickly. Look for the Vols to put a lot of pressure on Kenny Minchey, meaning he'll need to be accurate and make quick decisions to get the ball out. He does well to protect it though, and there's something special about this Wildcat team. I say they pull the upset on Rocky Top. Kentucky 26, Tennessee 23.
#1 Miami at #11 Notre Dame
The Irish host the #1 team in the nation as the Hurricanes come into South Bend. Notre Dame needs to win this game if they want a chance at the College Football Playoffs, especially with the committee ranking them at #11. Miami will be without star wide receiver Malachi Toney after he injured his ankle in practice on Wednesday and requires surgery, knocking him out for a few weeks. Notre Dame is very beaten up in the secondary, so this is a massive benefit for them and not having to cover Toney. Miami QB Darian Mensah has plenty of other weapons to utilize, but Notre Dame's run defense allows just 85 yards per game, so some other Hurricane receivers need to step up. Offensively for the Irish, Miami's defense has holes in it and they've allowed 93 points in the past 3 weeks. That's too many points, especially as the road team, so give me Notre Dame to put up some points and the Miami crumble begins. Let's shake things up in the rankings. Irish 31, Hurricanes 21.
#2 Georgia at #10 Ole Miss
A CFP rematch from last year, Georgia visits the Grove to take on Ole Miss. Trinidad Chambliss torched the Bulldogs for 362 and 2 TDs through the air last year, and is looking to put up similar numbers in from of their home crowd. He'll have to carry more of a load in this one since running back Kewan Lacy is still recovering from a dislocated shoulder at Texas. Georgia flexed their defensive muscles against Florida, but offensively their struggles continue. Gunnar Stockton didn't throw much, but the ground game was cruising against Florida with 217 yards on the ground. If they can establish the run like Texas did against Ole Miss, they should win this game. However, we need to make ranking decisions hell for the committee and an Ole Miss upset would do just that. Give me the Rebels to beat the Bulldogs at home. I believe Ole Miss to be better than advertised and they get the win 34-27.
#19 Iowa at Northwestern
The Hawkeyes go on the road to new Ryan Field as the Wildcats look to bounce back from their lost at Oregon. Northwestern gave up over 330 yards through the air to Dylan Raiola, but I don't think Hank Brown can put up those same numbers. Iowa's defense will be challenged a bit more if Aiden Chiles is able to go and Chip Kelley has things dialed up. Unfortunately it looks like Chiles won't be available. Perfect let down spot for the Hawkeyes after a big win against Wisconsin, and I want the upset so badly. That's exactly why Iowa will win and I've seen it too many times. This is one of those do-nothing Iowa games that they somehow win 23-17. Hoping for an upset, but I'll go with Iowa.
Michigan State at Michigan (Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy)
Researchers are collecting urine from tailgaters at this game and honestly that might be the most interesting thing in this matchup. Both Michigan and Michigan State have been very unimpressive this season. The Spartans have lost 6 in a row and a majority of their roster is injured. Michigan just has bad vibes all around, especially after scraping by Rutgers. The Wolverines defense is solid though, and without so many playmakers unable to suit up, they should win this one. Ugly game, Wolverines win 23-10.
Air Force at Army (Battle for the Commander in Chief Trophy)
Air Force and Army meet in West Point as two of the service academies collide. Both teams lean heavily on the run game, ranking 1st and 2nd in the nation with Army on top. It's true American Football with the triple option attack. Falcons QB Liam Szarka was lost for the season about a month ago due to injury, and although they've done well to keep winning without him, but a road game to Army is not easy. The Black Knights were torched through the air by Memphis, but despite their name Air Force doesn't throw it all that much. I'll go with the home team here, but it should be tight. Army 30, Air Force 24.
Oklahoma at #24 Florida
The Sooners fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle after the offense ranks 109th in points per game with 21.9. The Gators were stomped on by Georgia, and the Sooner defense is no slouch, so this could be an ugly game to watch. I don't expect Oklahoma's offense to suddenly wake up though, especially in the Swamp. Give me the Gators at home with a bit more scoring than the Sooners, which shouldn't be too difficult to do. Florida 26, Oklahoma 21.
West Virginia at #15 Texas Tech
The Mountaineers travel to Lubbock to pit their 5th ranked run defense against the Red Raiders under the lights. WVU Quarterback Michael Hawkins Junior has been sensational all year, accounting for 2,434 total yards and 27 TDs all by himself this season. He's joined by Cam Cook who is currently 9th in the nation with 923 yards on the ground. Texas Tech found some new offensive life with Tommy Castellanos last week, and their defense stepped up big to stop Arizona at critical points in the game. I think they'll fend off the Mountaineers in this one and win 38-21. Guns Up, Wreck 'Em!
Texas State at Oregon State
The Beavers flopped in Fresno last week while the Bobcats gave all they had against the Broncos and fell short by just 1 point. I expect the Oregon State offense to wake up here, meaning if you like points you'll want to keep an eye on this one. This could be a late night barn burner in Corvallis. Bobcat running back Torrence Burgess Jr. is a name to watch in this one as he's had two games already this season over 200 rushing yards. Oregon State's rush defense ranks 74th in the nation and they gave up 190 to Fresno State last week. Back-to-back tough road games for the Bobcats, but they'll hold their own to keep it close. Give me the Beavers to win it though, 38-31.
Nebraska at Illinois
The Huskers highlight a Friday night slate with a road trip to Illinois. The Illini have dominated this series as of late, winning 4 of the last 5. Quarterback Katin Houser has adapted well to the BIG 10, thrown for 1,663 yards with 13 TDs & 5 picks so far this season. The Blackshirts have done well this season to hold opposing offenses to low points and yardage, but will the Husker offense be able to help them out? The Illini rank 79th in total defense, so if Nebraska can't put together some points in this game it could be a long night. Jamal Rule would be a good man to feed in this game, hopefully opening the run game and allowing some play-action opportunities for the Huskers. This offense has to score consistently for any shot at victory, at least 1 score per quarter. Illinois doesn't have a lot of firepower, but I know this team will botch things yet again. Illinois wins 24-17 unless the Huskers can prove me wrong. I'll be hoping!
Quick Hit Predictions:
South Florida at ECU - Both teams have a couple of close losses in the American this season, so we should have a great one between the Bulls and the Pirates. ECU has a tough defense and that's hard to beat at home. I say the Pirates win 30-27.
TCU at #22 Arizona - Noah Fafita couldn't crack the Texas Tech defense in the second half, but should manage against TCU. Wildcats 28, TCU 17.
Iowa State at Baylor - Baylor woke up with Interim HC Joel Klanderman taking over, dropping 41 on my pal Scott Frost. The Cyclones have not quit though and Baylor is vulnerable. Playing at home i think they get the job done 31-21.
Clemson at Syracuse - Very quietly the 'Cuse are piling up upsets and knocking teams down a notch. Dabo Swineey doesn't have many notches left, and I like Syracuse QB Steve Angeli to make some magic happen. Syracuse Orange 24, Clemson Tigers 17.
Arkansas at Auburn - The Hogs would love a win here as Ryan Silverfield slowly works to build the culture. Auburn has been hot and cold this season, but playing at home gives them a big advantage. War Eagle with the Tigers beating the Hogs 33-24.
Oklahoma State at Kansas State - Both teams need a bounce back from a game they likely should've won. K-State is very off kilter this season though, and I like Drew Mestemaker to keep slinging it across the yard. Pokes win 38-28.
Cincy at #17 Houston - Cougars trying to keeping pace in the Big XII, need a win here 34-17. Look for Connor Weigman to have a big day.
Penn State at Washington - The Nittany Lions travel west to take on the dubs in Seattle. Having watched the Huskies in person last week, I don't think they should win this game. However, knowing Penn State, they will absolutely lose this game. Give me Demond Williams to have another big day, this time for a full 4 quarters and Washington win 23-21.
Thanks for reading my Week 10 Predictions and be sure to check out Week 10 of Inside Heart Football, your best source for all things football around the Heart of America Athletic Conference. Lots of big games this weekend including a battle for the North Division Crown between Grandview and St. Ambrose. Enjoy your weekend full of college football and GO BIG RED!
