Welcome to Week 8 football fans, and after the carnage of Week 7, who knows what we're in for with the back half of the season. There were 5 (nearly 6) teams in the top 7 that lost last week, and the playoff bubble is filling with a wide array of teams. We've got an under the radar weekend, but there are multiple ranked teams on the road. Lucky for me, the Huskers are on a bye, so they can't hurt me this weekend. Regardless, I'll have my analysis on last week's late night last to Oregon and my thoughts from one of the best weekends in college football we've had in years. Let's get to it!
Let's rip off the bandaid and talk about Nebraska. For the second week in a row, the Huskers gave up a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter, this time losing to their former quarterback Dylan Raiola. Myself and all other Husker fans who stayed up until nearly 2 AM Central time to watch this game received nothing but yet another gut punch from this team. There was truly nothing very exciting about this game, but there were some good things to build on. Unfortunately, the Huskers are again waiting for bowl eligibility after starting the season 5-0. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown below.
GOOD - Blackshirts vs Brock Thomas and safety run support. The story changed a bit when Dylan stepped in at quarterback, but for the first 3 quarters of the game, Nebraska's defense was lights out. The Ducks had just 91 total yards going into the 4th and couldn't do anything on the ground. This was yet another masterful performance by DC Rob Aurich and his squad, and holding Oregon to 17 points total should win you most games. Hope to see the Blackshirts keep playing like this as we move into the back half of the season. I also want to shout out the Husker safeties in their run support. Against Oregon last week, Caleb Benning and Dwayne McDougle III racked up 12 and 13 total tackles respectively. Benning came down to meet backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on multiple occasions, putting 5 solo tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss on the stat sheet. These guys both tackle well in space, and as a former defensive back, I love to see it. Keep it up Blackshirts!
EXPECTED - Colandrea is the offense and a 4th quarter collapse. Starting with the bad, we knew what was coming. There's no other life than pure, unending pain as a Husker fan. Of course Dylan Raiola would come into the game and lead a 4th quarter comeback to rip the hearts out of the fans who once praised him. Of course the Huskers would find yet another way to lose a close game, while making us lose sleep to watch them do so. I truly don't know how many other ways there are to lose a football game, but I'm sure we're bound to find out. However, on the positive side, Anthony Colandrea has more than lived up to the hype. The transfer signal caller accounted for all but 40 of the Huskers' total yards and is responsible for 63.2% of Nebraska's total yards so far this season. He's the second leading rusher on the team and I love how he's always looking to run north & south when he pulls it down. He's a dynamic player and he's won me over, keep doing your thing Anthony!
BAD - 4th Quarter Coaching and no one asking why Nebraska didn't blitz Raiola. Starting with my journalistic frustrations, how did no one as Matt Rhule in the post game press conference about why he chose not to blitz Raiola in the 4th quarter. Oregon made the change to put Dylan Raiola in at QB for the 4th quarter, and the Huskers chose to let him sit in the pocket with little to no pass rush. The Huskers rushed Raiola with just 3 or 4 defenders throughout the 4th quarter and let the Ducks take over the game with their run game and easy 5 yard hitches for Raiola to throw to. Oregon had 2 drives in the 4th quarter, one for 17 plays taking 7:42 off the clock and one for 20 plays taking 5:03 off the clock. Of all the quarterbacks in the nation, how do you not have a plan to beat Raiola. You know him better than anyone and yet you refuse to blitz him and make him uncomfortable? Arguably the easiest game plan to defeat Raiola, yet you avoid it. Back to the journalists, how do you not ask about this? You have one job and that job is to ask what happened in the 4th quarter. Offensive play-calling was not great either, and Husker fans could feel the loss coming all night. The other BAD part of this game was my decision to stay up and watch the whole thing before a 6 AM flight the next morning.
Week 7 Thoughts:
- This weekend is exactly why we don't need a 24 playoffs. These big losses matter, next year they won't.
- BYU's defense showed they're legit, BIG XII should have 2, maybe even 3 teams in the playoffs.
- Tennessee proved me wrong, tip of the cap to the Vols. Impressive defense, but Bama flaws showing.
- Great win for Alex Golesh and Auburn. Big fan of him as a coach and Auburn should be very happy they got him in the coaching carousel last year.
- Big problems brewing in Texas and I'm all here for it. This team looks like they've got a couple more losses coming.
- Ohio State survives by inches as Nick Marsh just steps out of bounds on what would've been a game winning TD pass. However, the Buckeyes have lost their QB for quite a while, potentially the rest of the year.
- UCLA is a team you want to bet on, they are consistent and didn't flinch with a back-up QB now leading the way.
- Oregon State is sensational and just re-signed their star wideout Jesse Legree. Must watch TV.
- Don't sleep on Houston, Wake Forest or Kentucky, dangerous teams.
- Mike Locksley is out at Maryland, the first firing of the year.
Week 7 Results: 18 - 8
Overall Results: 112 - 65
Week 8 Predictions:
#6 Indiana at Michigan
For the first time in just a few weeks, we have drama in Michigan! Quarterback Bryce Underwood has been benched by new head coach Kyle Whittingham in favor of back-up Tommy Carr. Carr came in for Underwood against Penn State and helped lead the Wolverines to victory. The defense for the Big Blue is still one of the nation's best, so Indiana will be tested for the third week in a row to put up points. Josh Hoover did not play his best against Ohio State, and the mighty Hoosier run game has been lacking a bit, with just 138 yards on the ground between the last two games combined. They'll need to re-establish the run game in this one, but I don't see Curt Cignetti losing two in a row, and I think the Indiana wideouts will be too much. Hoosiers over the Wolverines 31-21.
#8 Texas Tech at Cincy
The Red Raiders are starting to put the pieces together, demolishing Arizona State last week 53-25. Texas Tech will be leaning heavily on Junior RB J'Koby Williams. He's averaging 7.3 yards per carry with 5 TDs so far this season. He's extremely difficult to bring down, so Cincy will need to be sure with their tackling. The Bearcats are middle of the road in terms of run defense, so if Texas Tech establishes a push up front early, it could be along night for Cincy. This would be a big win for Scott Satterfield, but his teams tend not to perform the best in these big games. Guns Up & Wreck 'Em, TTU 34, Cincy 14.
#18 LSU at Auburn
Both sets of Tigers are coming off much needed wins in Week 7, but a battle in Jordan-Hare Stadium is never an easy one. LSU has an extremely talented roster built on paper, but Kiffin has yet to get the most out of them. Auburn is riding a big high after beating Georgia, and things may be starting to click for Alex Golesh. LSU has a suffocating run defense though, and they could be the end. Auburn will need some help for the upset, but I'll take them just to spice things up. Auburn wins the battle of the Tigers 26-24.
West Virginia at TCU
The definition of an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The Mountaineers offense averages 37.6 points per game while the Horned Frogs allow just 12.2. West Virginia has struggled against higher level opponents, and being on the road makes it even more difficult. Michael Hawkins Jr. has been fantastic this year, fully highlighting what the Rich Rod offense can look like. TCU has a defense that could slow down the WVU offense, but they need to get their offense in gear at some point. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, they do not have any defense, so give me TCU to win at home 30-24.
Western Michigan at Toledo
Two teams fighting for a spot atop the MAC with big implications on the line. Toledo has Ohio to end the year, but the rest of their schedule is extremely manageable. Western Michigan avoids Ohio, but has a couple tricky games left. This one puts the winner on an inside track toward the MAC Championship. Both teams are led by fantastic quarterbacks, Broc Lowry for WMU and John Alan Richter for Toledo. They take care of the football with just 1 pick each, and do well to get the ball to their weapons. I could go either way on this one, but I like the Rockets at home. It think they have a bit more offense to get this win. Toledo beats Western Michigan to tighten up the MAC race 31-27.
Oregon at Illinois
The Ducks travel to Illinois as the Illini come out of a bye week. Illinois has been up and down this year, but they're catching a questionable Ducks squad with Dylan Raiola back in the starting lineup. However, he'll be without star wide out Evan Stewart who is out for this game following some potential DUI/reckless driving issues following the Nebraska game. The Oregon offense was completely stuck last week until the 4th quarter. Some of that credit goes to Raiola as he was calm in the pocket and making smart throws. Illinois should do the exact opposite of what Nebraska did and send the blitz on Raiola. He's been known to struggle against heavy pressure and does not have a lot of mobility. Oregon's defense is tough to move on though, and because there is no justice in the world, I'm sure Dylan will start winning. Illinois will be without their starting QB Katin Houser following a broken hand, so that's a tall order for a back-up to come in against Oregon's front. Ducks on the road 27-17.
#2 BYU at UCF
Bit of a trap game spot for the Cougars of BYU following their big win against Notre Dame, but since they're facing Scott Frost that trap is less of a danger. UCF is coming off a bye week, but has back-to-back losses against Houston and Oklahoma State. BYU's defense was extremely impressive against Notre Dame, holding the Irish at just the right time. As I predicted, their receivers reeked havoc on the Irish secondary, and they'll be looking to do the same against UCF's 104th ranked pass defense. The Cougar offense is in a groove right now, and Bear Bachmeier is tough to slow down once they get rolling. Cougars over the Knights 31-17.
Michigan State at #9 UCLA
The Bruins held strong against Wisconsin last week and now welcome in a Spartan team who have lost 5 straight, including back-to-back one score losses. Michigan State is rebuilding under Pat Fitzgerald, and with all the injuries they had this season it's really about getting through and focusing on next year. Their run defense is decent, but not any kind of ready for what UCLA will throw at them. Give me another big rushing day for Bam Knights and the Bruins offense as they run away with this one 42-17.
#11 Tennessee at South Carolina
The Vols have to follow up their big win against Alabama with a trip to South Carolina as the Gamecocks look to get things back on track following a bye. Tennessee needs to keep leaning on their defense, but don't be surprised if South Carolina finds a way to put up a few points. The Vols offense is still struggling though, and a road environment is never favorable to Tennessee. They proved me wrong last week, but I don't think they do it again. Give me the Gamecocks 27-21.
#15 Iowa at Minnesota (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)
The Hawkeyes travel to the Twin Cities as they battle the Gophers for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy. That's right, a 98 lbs. bronze pig is on the line in this classic BIG 10 clash. The Gophers were routed by Purdue before their bye week, and Iowa doesn't make many mistakes. I think Drake Lindsey can make a few big throws to keep Minnesota around for the first half, but not in the second. Iowa will get their run game going as Purdue racked up 305 yards on the ground. Iowa wins the pig 38-17.
Kansas State at Arizona State
Vibes are bad in Tempe as the Sun Devils have given up big points in their three losses so far this season. Kansas State is coming off a big win in the Sunflower Showdown where QB Avery Johnson threw for 209 and rushed for another 132. His dual-threat ability is so difficult to stop and Arizona State's defense ranks 89th in the nation for total yards allowed. Cutter Boley was benched last week by Kenny Dillingham and things are starting to fall apart for Arizona this season. Give me K-State on the road with a big win for Colin Klein 34-17.
Virginia Tech at Clemson
Clemson has just 2 passing touchdowns so far this season. Yes, you read that correctly, only 2 touchdown passes and we're in late October. They're still 4-2 and have tremendous talent across their roster. Virginia Tech is 1 win away from being bowl eligible in James Franklin's first season, but the next few games are not easy. The Tigers may not throw the ball much in the redzone, but they love to run it. Sophomore RB Gideon Davidson has 5 TDs on the season and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The Hokies rank 10th in rush defense though, and if they can limit the mistakes, this would be a big win in Franklin's first year. I'm not really sold on either team, but playing at home with a night game in Death Valley is a big boost for the Tigers. Clemson 30, Virginia Tech 23.
#16 USC at Wisconsin
The Trojans travel to Badger town as they look to keep pace in the BIG 10 race. The next month will truly show us if USC is legit as Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA are all on the schedule. Lincoln Riley doesn't want to overlook at team like Wisconsin though, the Badgers are tough on defense, allowing just 16.7 points per game. Their offense could use som help however, and a questionable Trojan defense is often one to give up more than they should. The quarterback battle should be the focus as Jaiden Maiava of USC has been impressive, throwing for over 2,000 yards with 18 touchdowns and just 3 picks. He's completing passes at nearly 68% and is currently 3rd in the nation for passing yards. Colten Joseph for Wisconsin is both the leading rusher and passer for the Badgers, totaling over 1,500 yards with 14 total touchdowns. A night game at Camp Randall is always a tough environment, but I'm not sure Wisconsin has the firepower to keep up with USC. Fight on as the Trojans win 35-21.
#7 Ole Miss at #19 Texas
Things are trending down for the horns quickly after back-to-back losses against unranked teams. I mentioned a week ago that Oklahoma exposed some big flaws in a very disjointed offense. Now Texas has to face a very determined looking Ole Miss team who won't have to worry about star edge rusher Colin Simmons. He'll be out with a high ankle sprain, giving Rebels' QB Trinidad Chambliss even more room to use his legs. Although Chambliss hasn't been putting up big yards with his legs, he's got 6 rushing touchdowns to go along with the 14 he's thrown through the air. On the other side of the field, Texas QB Arch Manning has all sorts of questions floating around him. He's been inaccurate and clearly struggling to read defenses this season. Texas has been unable to run the ball consistently this season either, and the Rebels held Mizzou to just 39 yards on the ground last week. If Texas can't run the ball to help balance the offense and keep the chains manageable for Arch Manning, this could get ugly for Texas. The Rebels do rank 117th in opponent third down conversions, so there's opportunity for Texas to sustain drives. I think Ole Miss has the better quarterback though, and the offense at Texas has been extremely disjointed so far this year. Horns down as the Rebels come out of Austin with a 30-24 victory.
North Dakota State at New Mexico
A massive game in the Mountain West as two of the top teams collide. North Dakota State is the new comer to the conference, but they've proven they can play at this level with a 6-1 record in their first year of FBS. New Mexico lost their starting quarterback before the season started and has battled other injuries at that position too, but they're 5-1, looking every bit like the team I picked to go to the playoffs. Two great defenses will be battling in Albuquerque tonight, so protecting the ball is a must. The Lobos lead the nation with 21 total takeaways and a +17 turnover margin. NDSU isn't far behind with 14 takeaways for a +8 turnover margin, so whoever wins that battle likely wins the game. We saw the Bison lose a close one to UNLV a couple weeks ago, struggling to move the ball, while New Mexico had the same issue on the road at Hawaii last week. The Lobos cleaned things up, and coming home to play in the turquoise jerseys should give them a big boost. Whoever put this game on the CW completely missed the mark because this should be one of the best games of the day. Lobos win 20-17 in a defensive grudge match, taking the inside track to the Mountain West crown and possibly the College Football Playoff.
#14 Houston at #10 Utah
Our game of the week is a late night Big XII matchup between two under the radar teams. When we talk Big XII, most everyone focuses on Texas Tech or BYU, deservedly so. However, I've been on the Houston train all year and this team gets better and better to watch as the weeks go by. Utah has caught my eye too, remaining unbeaten through the first half of the season under the new leadership of head coach Morgan Scalley. He's built a unique, two quarterback system on offense, led by Devon Dampier. His QB counterpart Byrd Ficklin doesn't throw it much when in the game, but loves to run the rock when he gets in. Both QBs can keep the chains moving with their legs, so Houston's defense will have one of their toughest challenges of the year. These two teams are nearly identical with their production on offense, and both defense don't give up many big plays. I look to Houston's QB Connor Weigman as the game-breaker though. The veteran has accounted for a nation-leading 26 touchdowns and does well to take care of the rock with just 2 picks. A night game in Salt Lake City is one of the most upset-prone environments, and technically Utah is favored. However, I've been a fan of what Willie Fritz has building for the Cougars. I've seen some holes in the Utah defense against Kansas and against Colorado the past two weeks, we'll see if Houston can take advantage. Cougars defeat the Utes on the road 31-23.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Pitt at #1 Miami - Pitt can't do much since losing their QB and after nearly being upset last week the Miami offense will look to get back on track. Darian Mensah to Malachi Toney all day as the Canes win 38-14.
Cal at #23 SMU - The Ponies are looking for revenge from last season and the Golden Bears offense is a mess. Pony Up with Kevin Jennings having a big day, 38-20 SMU wins.
Texas A&M at #13 Alabama - Angry Bama at home versus an A&M team with bad vibes. This is another 2 or 3 turnover game for Marcel Reed, give me the Tide rolling with a 48-17 win.
Oklahoma at Mississippi State - If Kamario Taylor plays (and stays healthy in the game), the Bulldogs win. If he does not or gets knocked out, Oklahoma wins. I'll take the Bulldogs, Oklahoma keeps letting me down. Mississippi State 23, Oklahoma 21.
Colorado at Oklahoma State - Pokes defense needs work, but their gunslinger QB is going to light up the Buffs and the scoreboard. Oklahoma State 45, Colorado 24.
Vanderbilt at #12 Kentucky - Will Stein has the Wildcats tied atop the SEC standings with just 4 conference games remaining. Get through Vandy and the Wildcats have a very interesting path toward that SEC Championship game. Wildcats win 36-24.
Thank you for reading my Week 8 Predictions and as always, be sure to check out the latest episode of Inside Heart Football where I break down all the action in the Heart of America Athletic Conference. There's great football all across the nation, so kick back and enjoy your College Football Saturday!
#CFBKnowItAll🏈🧠
Alex Fernando