Hey everyone! We're only a few weeks away from College Football and I am pumped for the 2016 season! This post is going to focus on my opinions on the outlook of the BIG 10 Conference for the upcoming season. I'll do another post soon about my predictions on which schools will win the other conferences. I would also like to disclose to any new readers that I do write as a fan and a friend of the Huskers, so until I reach my dream job hosting College Gameday, I'm not going to be 100% unbiased ;) I'm going to pick my top three teams that I believe have the best chance of winning each division. Thank you and get ready for Gameday!!
The East Division
The early favorite in the East division of the BIG 10 is definitely Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines. In the first year under Harbaugh, Michigan really turned things around finishing 10-3 with a blowout win over Florida in the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl. They return nine starters on offense including four on the offensive line. Their key weapon returning on offense is Senior Tight End Jake Butt. Butt finished last season as an All-American with 654 yards receiving and 3 TDs. Look for him to be a big target again this year for the Wolverines. On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan had one of the better scoring defenses in the nation last year ranking 11th. This feat will be tough to repeat as they lose nearly half of their starting defense from a year ago. The big names to watch are All-American Senior DB Jourdan Lewis and All-BigTen Sophomore LB Jabrill Peppers. Peppers is known as an all around player for the Wolverines and often contributes on special teams as well as offense. Michigan's cross-conference schedule isn't horrible since they have Wisconsin and Illinois at home, but do have to travel to Iowa City to take on the West Division defending champion Hawkeyes.
The second team to watch in the East is Ohio State. Many people have shifted most of their focus to Michigan since Ohio State lost sixteen starters on both offense and defense from last year, most going to the NFL. However, even with a depleted roster, it is never wise to underestimate Urban Meyer. Especially because he has one key piece of his offense intact, and that is a young man named J.T. Barrett. Barrett did not play a good chunk of 2015 because of the QB battle with Cardale Jones, but he still finished with nearly 1000 yards passing, 700 yards rushing and 22 combined TDs. Look for this to be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Buckeyes, but don't expect them to be out of the race for a conference championship. Defensively, they are going to be lead by Junior All-BigTen Linebacker Rakwon McMillan. Just about everyone else on the defense is on some NFL roster or another now, so we'll see how quickly their young guys learn the ropes. Ohio State has the toughest cross-conference schedule since they play three of the better teams in the West division. The Buckeyes do get Nebraska and Northwestern at home, but those will still be tough games. Their other cross-conference game is a trip up to Madison to face the Badgers.
Michigan State finishes out the top three in the East on my list. Sadly, I don't think Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, and Penn State pose much of a threat. Possibly some upsets and they could set back a couple of the contenders, but I don't see any of those four winning the division. The Spartans seem like a long shot on their own too, but the defending BIG 10 champions have experience on their side. Much like Ohio State, they do only return a handful of starters, the most notable are on defense in All-BigTen stars Malik McDowell and Riley Bullough. They return to lead a defense that gave up an average of 20 points per game last year. On the offensive side of the ball, fifth-year Senior Tyler O'Connor looks to shine in the spotlight he's been waiting for for years. He's helped out by a powerful tandem of running backs in Sophomores LJ Scott and Madre London. Of the three power teams in the East, Michigan State has the best cross-conference match-ups. They have Wisconsin and Northwestern at home and Illinois on the road. Plus they get Michigan and Ohio State at home during the year.
I think that the East division crown will likely come down to the Michigan-Michigan State game. I hate to rule out Ohio State, and I would not be surprised to see them compete for the crown at the end of the year, but the Spartans, although depleted are too consistent. The Buckeyes struggled with consistency last year, and part of that was due to the QB battle, but I believe they lost too many weapons to have a consistent offense. Barrett won't be able to do it alone, and while there is no shortage of talent on Urban Meyer's roster, it could take some time for those young guys to get their feet under them. I've picked the Wolverines and Spartans because last year that game was a huge factor in to winning the division crown. Michigan State won on a last second muffed punt that they ran back for a touchdown. Having a consistent defense, a consistent ground game and a QB that was a play away from being the starter over the past three years bodes well for the Spartans. Michigan looks great with all the talent returning, but they too showed some inconsistency last season under Harbaugh. I'm picking the Spartans right now to win the East because of the experience and consistency. This could go to any of these three though!
The West Division
Iowa is the defending division champions, returns 15 starters from last year including All-BigTen QB CJ Bethard and All-American DB Desmond King, & have a very easy schedule....again. They are definitely the early favorites in the West. Offensively, they lose some weapons in RB Jordan Canzeri & WR Tevaun Smith, but returning an All-Conference QB to lead the way always helps. On the other side, Iowa had the 15th best scoring defense in 2015. I do believe that some of that stat was helped by their schedule, but their defense was tough, giving up only 18.5 points per game. This defense is lead by Jim Thorpe award winner Desmond King. King returns for his senior year after 8 picks last year. Plus the Hawkeyes return 3/4 of their starting d-line. I would look for this team to have one of the better defenses in the conference in 2016. Once again, Iowa walks into 2016 with a very soft schedule, both in and out of conference. Their cross-conference games include trips to Rutgers and Penn State. They do have to face Michigan, but they get them at home. Iowa's consistency gives them a good advantage with a schedule like this.
Northwestern edges out Wisconsin for me in the West because of the schedule. Wisconsin's schedule is just a gauntlet of big time match-ups starting with the opener against LSU and running a seven week stretch of @ Michigan State, @ Michigan, BYE, vs. Ohio State, @ Iowa, vs. Nebraska & @ Northwestern. The badgers have a tough defense, but not nearly enough offense to handle that brutal run. Apart from the schedule, the Wildcats have a great advantage in their roster as well. They return 12 starters from a team that went 10-3 last year and had the 7th best scoring defense in the nation. With All-American Linebacker Anthony Walker returning to lead the Wildcats defense, look for them to be near the top again in 2016. Offensively, Northwestern had trouble moving the ball last year. Part of that was due to having a freshman QB, but with a year under his belt, and All-BigTen RB Justin Jackson back as his top weapon, Sophomore QB Clayton Thorson looks to build off of the success of last year. Northwestern could be a deadly team this year, but as I stated earlier, they barely edged out Wisconsin on the schedule. The Wildcats do get Nebraska (always a close, tough game) and Wisconsin at home, but do have to travel to Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. Tough to stay in a conference race with that lineup. We'll see what the Wildcats do this year.
Last but not least are my Huskers. An obvious choice for myself, a puzzling choice if you look at scores and numbers from last year. However, for those that watched the games, you know that Nebraska was merely five plays away from being 10-2 instead of 5-7. The Huskers return 8 starters on offense and have one of the best receiving corps in the nation. Offensively, I expect Nebraska to be running very efficiently. The biggest question mark is the O-line, but even after losing three starters, the depth looks good. We'll see if they can step up and open up a run game that struggled to find it's footing early last year. The key to the offense is Senior QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. Armstrong has dedicated his time to improve his game after a disappointing end to the regular season where he threw 4 interceptions in a very win-able game against Iowa. Tommy performed well in the bowl game against UCLA and looks to lead the Huskers towards a conference championship in 2016. He has a talented group of wideouts to help him as the Huskers return six pass-catchers with great experience and have lots of talented underclassmen looking to get onto the field as well. The weakness of the Huskers comes on the defensive side of the ball. After a tough year defending the pass, and losing four starters on the d-line, Nebraska has to rely on a lot of young talent to hold up the Blackshirt tradition. Linebackers look to be the strength (I know, I can't believe it either) for Nebraska on defense as they are the deepest and most experience returning seven players with a good amount of game experience. The front four have to rebuild after losing four starters, but Sophomore Freedom Akinmoladun looks to provide a pass rushing threat after racking up five sacks as a Freshman last year. Finally, Senior Safety Nate Gerry looks to help the Blackshirts secondary get back on track after a brutal 2015. Nebraska had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year, so we'll see if Gerry can get the Huskers back to #LockDownU. Nebraska draws a fairly nice cross-conference schedule having to play Maryland at home, and then Indiana and Ohio State on the road.
I think that the West Division will come down to the Hero's Game between Nebraska and Iowa in Iowa City. I anticipate Iowa walking into that game with one loss at most, so Nebraska will really have to stay on top of their schedule if they want a shot at the crown. If Nebraska walks in with two conferences losses or less, they have a real shot at making it back to their first BIG 10 Championship game since 2012. The Huskers have won the past two meetings in Iowa City, and took the Hawkeyes down to the wire last season even with the four interceptions. I believe the Huskers have the talent and the system to compete this year and I have us winning the BIG 10 West Division in a thriller against the Hawkeyes!
In the BIG 10 Championship my match-up would be Nebraska vs. Michigan State. An unofficial rivalry that has been created due to all the last minute upsets between the teams in recent years. I would love to see my Huskers win their first conference title since 1999, but we'll have to see how the teams look before I make that pick!
I hope you enjoyed the BIG 10 Conference Outlook and please comment if you have any discussions! Get ready for football & GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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