Sunday, August 21, 2016

Conference Outlooks 2016

     We're under two weeks away from the best time of the year.... COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON!! I hope everyone is as excited as I am for the season to start up. This post is going to focus on my predictions and thoughts on who the favorites are to win the other conferences in Division 1 football this year. Enjoy!

     Sun Belt Conference

The Sun Belt Conference looks to be a tough race between Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and reigning champion Arkansas State. These are the top three teams in the conference and were all battling for the crown last year. Most other members are more capable of making a bowl game than making any conference championship runs. The three teams at the top are very close and each has a couple of tough games. Georgia Southern draws the short end of the stick having to play both Appalachian State and Arkansas State, but they are only on the road against the Red Wolves. I believe all three school have a shot at the crown, but if I had to rank them, I would put Georgia Southern in the 3rd spot due to the schedule. Having to face both of the other powerhouses in the conference is never an easy task. Arkansas State goes into my 2nd spot because although they return a good portion of their starters from last year, they lose their star QB & RB. For any team, that's a tough duo to replace. I expect all of these teams to have fantastic rushing attacks again as they were all in the top 15 in the nation for rushing last year. All three should have good defenses as they each return a large number of starters. My pick is Appalachian State for 2016 Sun Belt because I think they have the best schedule, team and motivation for a championship run. This should be a fun race to watch down south!

     Mid-American Conference (MAC)

The MAC is going to look fairly familiar as division favorites Northern Illinois and Bowling Green look to stay on top. However, each may have some competitors in their respective divisions. Over in the East, Akron and Ohio are both right on the heels of a Falcons team that just lost one of the best QBs in school history. I think Ohio has the best chance for a few reasons. They may not have a sure QB yet, but most of their starters from last year will be returning. Akron & BGSU cannot say the same as they lost a number of key players. Plus, Ohio gets both the Zips and the Falcons at home while avoiding NIU and Western Michigan from the West division. Look for a close race in the East, but I think the Bobcats will emerge division champs. On the West side, there's a different story. The Huskies of NIU have won 6 straight division titles, but with Toledo and Western Michigan on the rise it could be tough for them to continue that streak. I have the Broncos upsetting the Huskies and facing Ohio in the MAC Championship this year. Toledo has a strong chance to compete and a deadly ground game with Kareem Hunt carrying the rock, but I'm not sure they have the depth on defense. WMU returns eight starters on offense, including one of the best QB-WR duos in all of College Football in Zach Terrell and Corey Davis. My biggest reason for picking the Broncos this year lies in the schedule. They get to play both NIU and Toledo at home. Even with a tough road game to Akron, that is huge, because the three West division teams all tied with a 6-2 conference record last year. I have the Broncos winning the West and the MAC in 2016!

     Conference USA

Conference USA was dominated by the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers last year as star QB Brandon Doughty lead one of the top ranked offenses last year. However, now that Doughty is in the NFL, the race in the East division of the conference should be a little tighter. Marshall and Middle Tennessee look to knock off the reigning champs with high-powered offenses of their own. Florida Atlantic is a team on the rise, but I think the East may be too thick for them to make a decent run this year. WKU has a tough task because they have road games for both of their match-ups against MTSU and Marshall. Marshall gets both of the other two top contenders at home and look to step up their game on offense under second year starter Chase Litton. I think the schedule favors the Heard this season and they will return to the CUSA Championship game. Their opponent will most likely be a Southern Miss team that will be under new Head Coach, Jay Hopson. The Golden Eagles have holes throughout their roster, but do return their talented duo of QB Nick Mullens and RB Ito Smith. In 2015, Mullens and Smith combined for over 6,000 yards and 31 TDs. I don't expect their offense to slow down much, but it will be interesting to see if Coach Hopson can get the defense up to code after losing three All-Conference players from a year ago. The only team that could possibly compete with So. Miss in the West division would be Louisiana Tech, but it's highly unlikely considering they lost their starting QB & RB to the NFL. I'm expecting a Marshall- So. Miss match-up in the Conference Championship, and I think the offensive power of the Golden Eagles will bring home the crown!

     Mountain West Conference (MW)

The Mountain West has three main power teams that are out ahead of the pack. In the Mountain division, we have the Broncos from Boise State and the Flacons of Air Force. Last year the Broncos slipped up losing a couple of key games in conference and ultimately lost the division crown to rival Air Force. Air Force looks to be a solid choice to again take the conference crown as they return nine starters from a very solid defense from last year. However the Falcons do have a lot to replace on offense including 3/5 of their o-line. Boise looks to take a step forward from last year under second-year starter Brett Rypien. The Broncos finished the year as the 15th ranked offense in the nation, and return nine starters to back that up. I expect the passing attack to be as deadly as normal, but what you need to watch for is their ground game. Four starters on the o-line return to pave the way for RB Jeremy McNichols who ran for over 1,300 yards last year and 20 TDs. The Mountain division crown will come down to the big game between the Falcons and the Broncos at the end of the year on November 25th. This one is hard to pick right now, but I'm leaning towards the Broncos. Even with the game at Air Force, I think the revenge factor will loom large. My opinion may change as we see the season progress, but I've got Boise right now.
On the other side of the conference, we have the lone powerhouse of San Diego State. The Aztecs finished 11-3 last year with an 8-0 conference record and the MW Championship. They also blew out Cincy in the Hawaii Bowl 42-7. They're looking to prove that Houston might not be the only team outside of the Power 5 to watch. Houston does have strength in schedule on their side, but the Aztecs had a top ten defense last year and they return eight starters from it this year. I expect their defense to put up some impressive numbers again, but the real question is on the offensive side of the ball. If the Aztecs want to repeat as MW Conference Champs, then they need to execute their passing game at a higher level. Everyone knows they're going to run the ball, and they're going to run it well. Three offensive line starters return to lead the way for one of my most underrated players in the nation, Donnell Pumphrey. Pumphrey ran for nearly 1,700 yards and 17 TDs last year. He's back for his Senior year and I expect even better numbers. Look for him on some watch lists later in the year too. Sadly, there isn't really another team to compete with SDSU in the West, so I think it's their conference to lose. I expect them to win the West and back-to-back conference championships. We'll see if that's enough to get them into a major bowl game, I don't expect them to have many losses if any at the end of the season!

     American Athletic Conference

The American Athletic Conference was by far the strongest of the Group of 5 last season, and they are lead by the playoff hopeful Houston Cougars. The Cougars are the heavy favorite in the West as Navy and Memphis both lose two of the best QBs in the nation. So I expect them to be a peg down from last year, still very competitive though. Houston returns one of the best offensive attacks in the nation from last year. Greg Ward Jr. is my dark-horse Heisman pick for this year, and if the Cougars find a way to keep winning, expect to see him in NYC for the ceremony. Their defense took a bit of a hit losing nearly their entire secondary, but the front seven should be tough. Offensively, transfers RB Duke Catalon and WR Ra'Shaad Samples look to provide extra weapons for Ward. I would love to see the Cougars upset Oklahoma in the opener, but even if they do, their schedule is loaded with places to trip up. They do get Louisville at home, but have to travel to Cincy, Memphis, and Navy during the season. This is their conference to lose, but Todd Herman and company have their eyes set on a bigger prize. The Eastern division of the conference is just a battle to see who will most-likely lose to Houston. The main race is between USF and reigning East champs, Temple. The Owls had one of the toughest defenses last year, and are looking to repeat that again in 2016. They return a good amount of starters, but do lose All-American, Nagurski & Bednarik Award winning Linebacker, Tyler Matakevich. That's tough to replace for anyone. On the other side of the ball, the Owls need help. Last year offense was their biggest weakness, so we'll see what changes are going to be made this year. Look for Senior RB Jahad Thomas to carry the load. Over in South Florida, the Bulls look to be the strongest team in the East division. They seem to be more complete all around than the Owls and can put up points on the board. I think their schedule may hurt them a bit as they do travel to Temple and Memphis with a home game against Navy sandwiched in between. Temple has a little bit easier road to the Conference Championship, and I think the consistency level in the Owls will be the deciding factor. This one could go to either team, but it's really only for the division crown. Houston wins the American Athletic Conference again!

     The Big 12

The Big 12 has gotten messy over the off-season. Baylor has completely imploded with all of the scandals, the conference is trying to get as many people to try and join or re-join as possible, and OU is just sitting at the top watching it all. The Sooners are the heavy favorite to win the conference again, but do watch out for TCU. The Frogs get the Sooners at home, and even though they are replacing star QB Trevon Boykin, with the injury plague TCU had last year, their depth chart has a lot of experience. Over the rest of the conference I see a lot of potential upsets and head scratching losses for and by various teams, but these two are definitely the strongest contenders. OU has nearly all their talent back, but opening up with Houston and then playing Ohio State a couple weeks later could put a hurt on their record early in the year. They have their eyes set on another playoff run, but Big-Game Bobby tends to miss one or two games a year that just confuses everyone. Plus with three top 15 teams in the first five weeks of the season, there's bound to be some trouble. They're lucky enough to have a BYE the week between Ohio State and TCU, so that could be a huge factor. I would love to see the Horned Frogs rise up and take the conference by storm again, but I think Oklahoma's talent will be too much this year. I do not see OU in the playoffs though, I still think that Stanford was the better team last year. Sooners are my favorites for Big XII champs!

     The Pac-12

The only reason the Pac-12 stays out of the playoffs this year is because there is too many teams that could compete for a spot in the playoffs. The West coast is LOADED with a plethora of teams and tough schedules to make the conference race very interesting. My three main teams for the South are USC, UCLA and Utah. Arizona & Arizona State could cause some headaches, but I don't think they have the talent or experience to get into the conference championship this year. USC has weapons beyond compare, but can red-shirt Junior Max Browne live up to the hype? Browne has been sitting behind Cody Kessler for the past few years, but is ready for his shot now. However, the schedule is not kind to the Trojans as they open with Alabama and have to take both Utah and UCLA on the road. Plus a 4-game stretch in November against 4 top 25 teams will not be easy. Rival UCLA looks to have a lock on the South as Sophomore QB Josh Rosen gears up for another great season. As a Freshman, Rosen threw for 3,670 yards and 23 TDs. Their schedule plays a huge factor as they have all their toughest games at home including Stanford. Look for the Bruins to come out of the South. Utah could cause some upsets, but I think they've lost too much talent from last year.
Up in the North, it's a very tight race. Stanford is my early favorite, but a lot of people have written them off since they only return nine starters. I don't think nine starters scares HC David Shaw much though. Over the last few years, it does not seem like the Cardinal have every lost a step when losing a key player. They just plug the next guy in and keep winning. Without their surprising loss to Northwestern last year, I believe they would've been in the CFP. Plus, when you return the best player in the nation (Yes, I'm still salty that McCaffery didn't win the Heisman) then there's a good chance you'll compete. Stanford's biggest concern is that their schedule is extremely front heavy, including back to back games at UCLA and at Washington. Oregon, Washington, and WSU all look to knock off the Cardinal though. My dark-horse is Washington. Oregon has a lot of rebuilding to do on defense and can only lean on Royce Freeman so much until their QB issues will start to hurt them. The Ducks are always a factor, but I think there's too much extra talent around the conference for them to come out on top. Road trips to WSU, Utah and USC are not going to be fun. The Cougars have really improve under Mike Leach and were not far off from a division championship a year ago. Luke Falk looks to lead a dynamic passing attack, but his defense won't be enough to get him and the Cougars into the Pac-12 Championship. Finally, the Washington Huskies. They're my dark-horse pick for a few reasons. Their 7-6 record included 3 single score losses, they return 17 starters from a year ago, Chris Petersen is never a coach to overlook, and they return the impressive duo of QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin who combined for over 4,200 yards and 30 TDs last year. Plus their schedule gives them Stanford and USC at home while avoiding UCLA out of the South. I expect the Cardinal to win the North and beat UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Huskies made a run. Stanford is my Pac-12 pick!

     The SEC

I would love to say that Tennessee will live up to they hype and knock off the powerful SEC West for just a year, but then I remember that Tennessee likes to mess things up. They have nearly their ENTIRE team back (18 returning starters) including the best SEC duo of Joshua Dobbs and Jalen Hurd. They have the schedule for it as well as the get to play both Florida and Alabama at home while avoiding Ole Miss and LSU in cross-conference play. They have everything lined up for the East division crown, and they're my favorite right now, so let's hope they can do something with this set up. They're my favorite specifically because Georgia has a new head coach, and Florida is still trying to figure out how to play with a QB who doesn't use PEDs. Florida has a good chance to compete, but since their match-up in Rocky Top comes so early in the season, I don't think they will mesh soon enough.
On the Western side of the conference, three teams loom large. They're the three traditional powers of Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss. The Rebels should have a stellar offense again lead by QB Chad Kelly, but losing over half their starting defense will hurt. Plus their schedule is brutal in the first few weeks: open with FSU, cupcake against Wofford, but then back to back home games against Bama and Georgia. LSU and Bama are my top teams and it will probably come down to their big rivalry game to decide the West. LSU gets Bama at home this year, so we'll see if Leonard Fournette and company can knock off the Tide. Both teams should have a steady run game and a tough defense, but they are both looking for a QB. I can never tell between these two if there's an edge or not, but if there is one, I'll give it to the Tigers for the home game factor. Whichever team wins here will beat Tennessee in the SEC Championship. Look for Arkansas to cause upsets and make the conference a little interesting this year though!

     The ACC

The ACC Atlantic division will probably come down to Clemson and Florida State. The Tigers are looking to avenge their National Title loss and get back into the College Football Playoff. FSU looks to run the table as they return 18 starters from a year ago, including their entire offense. Starting QB Sean Maguire is sidelined by an injury for the first few weeks, but red-shirt Freshman Deondre Francois can lean on All-American Dalvin Cook for help. Their schedule is tough, but plays in their favor as they get both Clemson and UNC at home. Clemson is returning 12 starters including 8 from one of the best offenses in the country in 2015. Heisman Finalist QB Deshaun Watson is arguably the best QB in the nation right now, and with RB Wayne Gallman and stud Sophomore Hunter Renfro back as weapons, Clemson's team looks to be very good again this year. The defense is what will hurt the most as they only return four starters from a year ago. The showdown between Clemson and FSU on October 29th will be one of my most anticipated this fall. I really can't decide on this one, but I'm leaning towards the Tigers because Deshaun Watson does not make many mistakes. Even if Maguire is back, FSU should lean on Cook because they don't have the best QBs.
In the Coastal division, UNC is the early favorite even though they lose star QB Marquese Williams. Miami is my second pick, but to me, there's a decent gap in between. Miami has talent, but they lack consistency. Too many close wins and blowout losses in confusing fashions last year for my taste. Look for Junior QB Brad Kayaa to lead a solid offense, but their defense won't be able to handle back to back games against FSU and UNC. I'm picking UNC to repeat as Coastal champs because of Elijah Hood. The Heels' star RB rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and 17 TDs last season. He will be the main focal point on offense as the Tar Heels break in Junior QB Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky does have a talented wideout group to throw to and should be well protected as they return four offensive linemen from a year ago. I expect a re-match of last year's ACC Championship between UNC and Clemson. I think the Tigers are definitely in the playoff hunt again, so I'm giving them back-to-back ACC titles!

These are my predictions for the conference winners of 2016! We'll see how the season plays out!
Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!

#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando

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