December 27th-29th Bowl Games

     I hope everyone enjoyed the Holiday weekend and had a wonderful Christmas! I was very excited to receive a new football as one of my gifts, so my friends and I can start playing our pick up games once we get back to UNL! This post has more Bowl Game Picks by Nate & myself for the games on the 27th-29th! Enjoy!

December 27th

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl

Army vs. North Texas

Alex:
     This isn't the most interesting of Bowl Match-ups, but it's Army's first time in a bowl game since the 90's, so we can still be excited for them. They've enjoyed a very good season and have done a terrific job of honoring DB Brandon Jackson who was tragically killed in a car accident before the year. Looking into the game, momentum will be huge. North Texas is looking to turn the ship around after losing 4 of their last 5 games, most of them being blowouts. Army is coming off of arguably their biggest win in the past 15 years as they knocked off their arch rival Navy for the first time since 2001. I think Army's defense has a lot of confidence after their previous win and they will come into this game ready to shut down North Texas. The point spread is 11, but I think Army pushes that a bit and wins this game with a solid 30-17 victory. Sorry Mean Green, you're not mean enough to beat Army twice in one season. You never want to play a team twice in the same year... GO ARMY!

Nate:
     The rematch heard around the bowl season! These two teams met once before this season, with North Texas taking a 35-18 victory. So you might think this will be an easy choice? To quote Lee Corso: “Not so fast my friend.”

     Army gave away seven turnovers in their game, and to be frank, I would be shocked if that even comes close to happening a second time.  They have some solid wins over the last half of the season, including the emotional win against Navy, while the Mean Green have limped to a 1-4 record to close the season. Both teams have something to play for; this is Army’s first bowl in 20 years, and North Texas wants to win their first postseason game since ’04. Hard fought game, but I don’t see Army giving it up twice in a season.

Army: 20 North Texas: 13

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

Temple vs. Wake Forrest

Alex:

     This game will be interesting to watch. Wake Forrest finished out the year 1-4 while the Owls finished 5-0. The Demon Deacons played a lot of teams tight this year, but could not quite pull out any of the potential upsets they had in front of them. Temple has played strong all season long, posting some of the best defensive stats in the nation, but recently lost their Head Coach as he took the open job at Baylor (good luck turning that around). Losing your Head Coach is never easy, but I think the Owls are still the better team. Plus there's the whole issue of Wake Forrest assistant(s) giving out team information and whatnot, but we won't worry about that since in bowl games, players just need to play. Looking at the stats though, it still doesn't look good for Wake Forrest. They may be able to keep it close early on, but their lack of consistency on offense against Temple's stout defense will be their ultimate doom. A couple of big turnovers and Temple will take this game over and never look back. Both teams have some adjustments to make next year with some new staff members, but I don't think Temple has too many problems in this game. Owls 40, Demon Deacons 20.

Nate:

     This is another game of completely different fortunes, as Temple closed out the season winning seven straight, while Wake Forest went 1-5 over the last 6 weeks. Both teams have some sort of off-season distraction. Where Temple doesn’t have their head coach, as Matt Rhule took the Baylor job, and Wake has the whole “Wakey Leaks” scandal to worry about.

     On an off topic note: what a weird scandal. Honestly anyone who took those game plans should be ashamed of himself or herself, and they probably should be fired, but we know there is too much money in there. But look at the Louisville statement, so bizarre. He issued a much more acceptable one, but everybody is just shrugging their shoulders.

     It’s not just the eye test that points to the Owls; the stats say so as well. Temple has had one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing only 17 points per game. The best you can say about the offence of Wake Forest is that it isn’t last. It ranks in the 100s for almost every major category, bottoming out at an abysmal 121^st in scoring (19.3 points per game).

     It’s nothing personal for the Deacons, but they have not impressed me at all this season, and while you shouldn’t discount the lost coach, this isn’t a Houston/SDSU situation at all. (Because SDSU is an actual good team). Temple: 28 Wake Forest: 10

National Funding Holiday Bowl

Minnesota vs. Washington State

Alex:

     As many of you probably know, the Gophers nearly boycotted themselves out of this bowl game. There seemed to be a lot of communication gaps between the players and the administration on WHY the 10 players were suspended, but when they were finally able to see the report, they understood that the Title IX issue wasn't a good thing to boycott. Nonetheless, the Gophers are headed out to San Diego to take on Mike Leach and his high flying Cougars of Wazzu. Minnesota's best chance in this game is to run the ball and keep it away from Luke Falk. Wazzu has the best passing offense in the nation and Minnesota ranks 69th in the nation giving up an average of 228.2 yards per game. Neither team has very much defense, but Minnesota's lack-luster offense won't be able to keep up with Luke Falk and Mike Leach. I see the Cougars rolling in this game. Wazzu 45, Minnesota 21.

Nate:

     This is the weirdest game to cover. Minnesota wasn’t even going to play this game. They were going to boycott the game over the 10 player suspensions for alleged suspensions. I don’t want to say much about the incident, only that it appears that the payers were grievously in the wrong, and Minnesota was in the right to stand by the suspensions.

     Game wise, I’m not too confident in the Gophers.  They finished 8-4, which wouldn’t be a bad record, but they had one of the easiest schedules in the nation. I don’t particularly like Mitch Leidner, who has only thrown 7 Touchdowns to 12 picks this year. Luke Falk has looked much better, he has thrown for more than 4 thousand passing yards, a staple of a Mike Leach team. Both teams have solid defense, but the suspension scandal has taken out two of the Gophers starting secondary, and Falk will pick that apart. I love games against the Gophers, but I can’t pick them here, Washington State wins going away. Washington State: 42 Minnesota: 13

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

Boise State vs. Baylor

Alex:

     Baylor has been a mess of a program over this past year, and the back half of their season is a perfect example of it. Starting out 6-0 and finishing 0-6. Hopefully Matt Rhule can turn that program around once he gets in there as Head Coach. For now, Baylor just needs to get through their bowl game and move on. Boise State has played well this year, but lost two difficult games within their last five. I expect them to run the ball with Jeremy McNichols (1663 yards and 23 TDs this season) and wear down the Bear's defense. Baylor will be without QB Seth Russel, so their offense will struggle more than it already has the last half of the season. Boise wins this one easy, 38-20.

Nate:
     To say this is one of the easier bowl games to predict would be an understatement. Baylor has been a car crash of a program this year, especially over the last few weeks of the season. Boise on the other hand has looked great this year. Jeremy McNichols has rushed for 1,600 yards this season, and will make a Baylor defense look less impressive than it already has. Without quarterback Seth Russell, the bears turn to QB Zach Smith to try and get it done. He hasn’t looked bad per say, but the teams is over-matched, and I don’t expect things to change in a week.

Boise: 32 Baylor: 17

December 28th

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

#23 Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern

Alex:

     I really like this match-up because both of these teams are well coached and play tough with every team they face. Northwestern has a strong defense, but has struggled to get their offense going in big games. They give up only an average of 22 points on defense, but only score an average of 25.6 points per game on offense. These stats speak well to their schedule because they were in all of their games, but could not keep up with scoring. Pitt on the other hand has scored points left and right, averaging over 42 points per game this season. Senior QB Nathan Peterman has some very impressive numbers passing for over 2600 yards this year and posting a 26 to 6 TD to INT ratio. Clayton Thorson has been fantastic in his second year starting for the Wildcats as he's thrown for just under 3000 yards and has a 21 to 8 TD to INT ratio compared to his 9 interceptions last year. The main focus of Northwestern should be to get the ball to the do-it-all back Justin Jackson, or their star wideout Austin Carr. Each of them have 12 TDs on the season, and it still puzzles me how Pat Fitzgerald's squad has not been good on offense this year. They have great weapons and a second year QB who is been very solid, but they still have to many drives that stall. IF they can figure out their offense, they can easily compete and win this game (also be a sneaky factor in the BIG 10 next year), but that's a big IF. I'll take Northwestern in the upset since they're BIG 10 and I want to see them succeed (they were one of Nebraska's best wins this season). Either way I think this will be a close game though. Wildcats 30, Panthers 26.

Nate:

     A match-up between a team that can score but can’t play defense, and a team that can do both sort of well. This is a tough match-up to predict. Both teams have strong suits and reasons for picking. Northwestern is the easier of the two teams to decode. They have a strong suite of offensive players, Receiver Austin Carr and Running Back Justin Jackson chief among them (I also do really like QB Clayton Thorson), but an overall inconsistent output. They are just as likely to score less than 14 then they are to score over 20.

     Pitt, has much higher highs (Who else has beaten two conference champions?), but much lower lows. Nathan Peterman is the highest rated quarterback in the ACC, and James Conner is no slouch at the RB slot. They can score at will it seems, punctuated by scoring 76 on Syracuse. But their Defense gave up 60 in that game, and usually lets any team back in to the game, as evidenced by their 13 out of 14 ranking in the ACC

     I think I have to take Pitt here, as when they are on, they are really on, and their ceiling is much greater than Northwestern. But the game will be close, Pitt’s defense will make sure of that.

Pitt: 38 Northwestern: 32

Russel Athletic Bowl

Miami vs. #16 West Virginia

Alex:

     West Virginia had their chance to win the Big XII when they hosted Oklahoma, but couldn't handle the Sooners. Miami has been somewhat up and down this season, riding a 4 game win streak into this game.... but they did lose to Notre Dame (Sorry Uncle Joe). Star QBs will duel it out in this game as Skylar Howard and Brad Kaaya face off. Kaaya disappointed many this season by not being the standout QB everyone predicted, but I thought he played really well for being tossed into a brand new system with first-year Head Coach Mark Richt in charge. He's thrown for 3250 yards this season and has 23 TDs to just 7 picks. Howard on the other hand has lead one of the best passing attacks in the Big XII, but really seems to struggle in the big moments. His numbers are fairly similar to Kaaya's though with just under 3200 passing yards with 26 TDs and 10 INTs. I'm really torn in this game because both teams have the potential to play extremely well, but also have the potential to flop at any possible moment. I'll go with the Mountaineers since Miami's only in the first year of their system, but this will be close either way. WVU wins it 33-31.

Nate:

     Two teams who had hype at different points in the season and both didn’t quite live up to them. Both had broken into the top ten, but both found themselves tumbling out after some disappointing losses.  Miami comes into this game hoping to rely on two things, its stingy defense (12th in the nation) and a solid passing attack. Brad Kaaya didn’t really make the jump that many assumed he would make coming into his junior year, but he still leads a pretty good passing attack averaging 250 yards per game, which should be good plan against a Mountaineer pass defense ranked 99^th in the nation.

     West Virginia needs more production from Skylar Howard. He can do it, the 10 wins they have are a testament to that, but he can play poorly as well. They don’t really do well converting yards into points going from 12^th in yards per game to 46^th in points per game.

     This will be a close one, but I think Miami has the slight edge, they just match up well, but expect a close game.

Miami: 24 West Virginia: 21

Foster Farms Bowl

Indiana vs. #19 Utah

Alex:

     Indiana comes into this game after a bumpy season that concluded with the firing of Head Coach Kevin Wilson. The Hoosiers were so close to pulling off a number of upsets throughout the year (including one on my Huskers), but were never quite able to finish them. My theory on why they are not winning these close games is QB Richard Lagow. I personally think that Xander Diamont is the better choice, and I have thought that since I saw Diamont when he was a freshman replacing the injured Nate Sudfeld. Lagow has started every game this season and has 18 TD passes to 16 picks. Diamont has primarily been used as a runner, but that's why I think he would be the better option at QB. He opens up the offense more and allows more room for their play-makers like RB Devine Redding and all of their receivers. I've never been a big fan of the 2-QB system, and that's why I think Indiana has yet to get over the hump yet. Defensively, they have improved 10-fold from last year, giving up an average of 10 fewer points than last season. Their defense has kept them close in games this season, but their offense usually takes them out.

     Speaking of offense, we turn to Utah and their dynamic RB Joe Williams, who has nearly 1200 yards rushing and 9 TDs despite missing 1/3 of the season. The Utes can score, averaging a little over 30 points per game, but they have a difficult time closing out games. They lost 3 out of their last 5 games, all of which were 1 possession games. They will need to finish strong if they want a win in this game, because it's going to be close. I would love to pick Indiana in this game, but I can't do it with Richard Lagow at QB. Their normally dynamic offense has sputtered this season, and I don't think Tom Allen can bring it back in time for the bowl game. Utes win 37-31.

Nate:

     It was a rough end of the season for the Hoosiers. They fired their head coach, Kevin Wilson, for player mistreatment. It will be a lot to ask of new coach Tom Allen to get his team ready, and it’s hard to wonder how the team feels about all of this. Indiana has some players I like and some I’m not so fond of. Devine Redding is who Indiana will attempt to be leaning on. He has over 1,000 yards on the season and 6 touchdowns.  Richard Lagow, the Hoosier quarterback, has struggled this year. Only tossing 18 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. They will need him to have a good night.

     For the Utes, Joe Williams will show why he is one of the Pac-12’s best running backs. He has over 1,000 yards despite not playing all 12 games. I don’t foresee Indiana breaking through. The Utes have a solid Defense, and Indiana’s stagnant offence won’t be enough to carry them.

Utah: 35 Indiana: 20

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

Texas A&M vs. Kansas State

Alex:

     Old Big XII foes face off in Houston for the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl. The Aggies have stumbled hard over the last part of the season, losing 3 of their last 5. K-State on the other hand has won 4 out of their last 5 games, and their lone loss was a 6 point loss in a barn-burner against Oklahoma State. IF Trevor Knight returns, A&M has a good shot at winning this game. If he does not (probably the more likely scenario), then I'll give the edge to K-State. I think their ground game will cause issues for the Aggies' defense who give up an average of 190 yards on the ground per game. Kansas State's defense hasn't been overly impressive on the season, but they've been consistent. Plus, you never want to underestimate Bill Snyder. Kevin Sumlin better figure things out quick or he may be looking for a new school. I'll take the Powercats on the upset. K-State 34, Texas A&M 28.

Nate:

     Kevin Sumlin might be feeling the heat. This isn’t the first time A&M has disappointed coming off of a promising start, but this one might sting the most. The Aggies are two quarterbacks down, as Trevor Knight and Jake Hubanek are both injured. The Wildcat-passing defense is not very good, but on the third option for A&M, it’s hard to see how they can exploit it.

     Kansas State’s offense isn’t anything special either.  QB Jesse Ertz has only thrown for 8 touchdowns, but is the team leader on the ground with 900 yards and 10 scores. They don’t have the big name players on D that the Aggies have, but have been a more consistent unit overall.

     If Trevor knight can return like people are thinking, then I do think that the Aggies are the better team. If not, who knows?

Texas A&M: 31 Kansas State: 24

December 29th

Birmingham Bowl

South Florida vs. South Carolina

Alex:
     This game will be interesting to watch. I am absolutely shocked that Will Muschamp was able to bring the Gamecocks to a bowl game in his first year, so they should be excited just to end up in the post season. South Florida comes into this game without their head coach as Willie Taggart has been hired as Oregon's new head man. That could cause a few issues for them in this game, but I think the big key factor will be QB play in this game. South Carolina's Freshman QB Jake Bentley has played well in his first year, passing for 1030 yards, 6 TDs and just 2 picks in the 6 games that he's played. They seemed to have gone through a few QBs until settling on Bentley, which could be an issue as he's only played in 6 games. On the other side, Junior QB Quinton Flowers has phenomenal in his second season as the starter. He has very similar numbers to last season with 2551 yards passing, 22 TDs and 6 picks, but his running ability has been the big factor this year. Flowers is USF's leading rusher ahead of Junior RB Marlon Mack by nearly 300 yards. Both have over 1000 on the ground and 15 TDs a piece. Flowers is also on a 4 game streak of 140+ rushing yards including one game with 210. I think his experience and dual threat ability will be too much for the Gamecocks and South Carolina won't be able to keep up with the Bulls' 7th ranked scoring offense that averages 43.6 points per game. Flowers has a big game and leads the Bulls to a solid 47-20 win over the Gamecocks.

Nate:

     The Gamecocks are bowling once again. Will Muschamp has managed to bring a fire back under the program that was missing under the last few years of Spurrier. Jake Bentley is another freshman SEC quarterback that I really do like and am excited to see where he goes from here. He hasn’t looked super impressive down the stretch, but you can see the flashes of potential, and they look good.

     For the Bulls, they will rely on their run game, as they have all season. Quinton Flowers ran for a team high 1,425 yards and 15 touchdowns, as the quarterback. Flowers also added 2,551 and 22 TDs in the air. He has been called a dark horse candidate for the Heisman next year, and with stats like those, I believe it. I think the Cocks keep it close, they tend to, but USF is the better team I believe.

USF: 25 South Carolina: 20

Belk Bowl

Arkansas vs. #22 Virginia Tech

Alex:

     Which Arkansas team will show up?? It could be the one that dominated and upset Florida.... or it could be the team that lost to Missouri and were crushed by Auburn 56-3. I can never trust Arkansas because their team is so hot and cold and it all starts up front. Their offensive line usually leads one of the better rushing attacks in the nation, but have struggled this year as the offense tried to balance out under Junior QB Austin Allen. I think Allen will be one of the better QBs in the nation next year, and has a good chance to be a high pick in the 2018 draft, but for now, he just needs someone to block for him. Allen has been sacked 28 times this year and that's a big reason why his completion percentage is only at 61.4%. He's constantly under pressure and the team's run game hasn't been the most reliable, as the Hogs rank 64th in rushing offense in the nation. They will need to establish a run game to win this game, and the Hokies rush defense is mediocre, sitting at 43rd in the nation, so it's possible.

     Virginia Tech on the other hand has had a very impressive first season under Head Coach Justin Fuente. Fuente has lead the Hokies to 9-4 and was very close to knocking off Clemson in a thrilling ACC Championship game. This is a fairly young team that will bring a lot of guys back next year, and their leader is Junior QB Jerod Evans. Evans has played very well this season, passing for 3309 yards, rushing for 759 yards and accounting for 37 TDs combined. His favorite target is Junior wideout Isaiah Ford who has over 1000 yards receiving and 7 TDs this season. Since Arkansas gives up nearly 220 yards through the air on average per game, I think Virginia Tech will play well in this one. I would watch out for this team next year! VA Tech 42, Arkansas 33.

Nate:

     Both teams need this win. It’s been a rough year for the Hogs, as they are coming off of a 7-5 regular season, they need this win. Virginia Tech also would like this win, to cement a good season after a 9-4 and coming off of a championship game loss to Clemson.

     The Hogs will rely, as usual, on quarterback Austin Allen. Allen can be an exciting player when the Arkansas offensive line lets him. They have found a solid back to complement Allen in Rawliegh Williams III (the most southern name of all time), who seems to have found his groove early in the season. The Tech run defense isn’t anything special, and Arkansas is 6-0 when rushing for more than 200 yards, so expect a ground-pounding plan from them

     Expect the same from Tech, who plan to use electric Quarterback Jerrod Evans to light up the Hogs mediocre defense. The senior QB has combined for over 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. Expect a game plan similar to the one from the Hogs. The will be a game between teams more similar than you might think. I do think Virginia Tech is the better overall team, but it’s close.

Virginia Tech: 30 Arkansas: 28

Valero Alamo Bowl

#12 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Colorado

Alex:

     First of all, please remember that I hate Colorado with a passion. However I do like thier QB Sefo Liufau a lot and I do think the Buffs got screwed out of the Rose Bowl by USC (but that part is kinda funny). More former Big XII foes face off yet again as the Pokes and the Buffs face off down in San Antonio. Nate is going with his Cowboys of course, but I think I'm going to go with Colorado like I have been most of this season. They sputtered out in the Pac-12 Championship, but Sefo getting injured did not really give them much of a chance. Hopefully Sefo will be healthy in this game, because I think this is a fantastic match-up.

     Both teams play very similar games with the spread offense and tough defenses that force a lot of turnovers. Both teams average over 30 points per game and the key will be QB play in this game. Both running backs have over 1000 yards on the ground and will provide a useful asset for each squad, but the key will be which QB takes care of the ball. Rudolph will be looking to get the ball to his big target, WR James Washington, who has over 1200 yards and 9 TDs receiving. Statistically, Mason Rudolph has the edge with a 25 to 4 TD to INT ratio, but Sefo's rushing ability sets him apart in my opinion. He has nearly 500 yards on the ground and 7 TDs. His ability to create plays and get out of trouble is really impressive though.

     The final factor to watch will be the defenses. Both teams force a lot of turnovers and do not give up many points. Look for Safety Tedric Thompson to lead the Buffs defense and finish out this close game with a win! It's been a while since I've picked against Nate, and there's no better game to do it! I'll take Sefo and the Buffs with a tight, 38-37 thriller!

Nate:

     Colorado has the best news of any team in this game, as QB Sefo Liufau is expected to be back. They prefer a run it over, bash you in the face style. They like to lean on Liufau and running back Phillip Lindsay to find success, a plan that should be effective against a Cowboy defense ranking in the bottom quarter of the FBS.

     The Pokes, on the other hand, are going to try to leverage their prolific scoring offence (38 points per game) against a Colorado defense that ranks in the top half in most major categories. Oklahoma State has some excellent play makers, chief among them Justice Hill, a rising star at the running back spot who just hit over 1,000 yards during the game against Oklahoma. Mason Rudolph has a few nice targets to throw to, chief among them James Washington.

     It will be a tough one for the Pokes, in all categories, I do think Colorado has the edge. So I’ll be picking…. Oklahoma State. Look above to Alex for some more objective picks, this one I can’t escape being a homer. I choose to die on this hill.

Oklahoma State: 38 Colorado: 31

Thanks for reading our picks and be ready for more (including the most important one: Huskers) coming soon! Happy Holidays and GO BIG RED!

#CollegeFootballKnowItAll

Special Guest: Nate Muhlbach

Alex Fernando