I hope you're all ready for a great weekend of football, and a great weekend for chaos, because Championship Week is upon us! The games taking place this weekend not only have big implications on the playoff picture, but the entire bowl picture itself! I'll summarize the article I read earlier this week about Navy by ESPN at the end of my post. Until then, enjoy my picks on the big games this weekend and feel free to comment for any discussions on picks!
Friday Games
Mid-American Conference Championship
#17 Western Michigan vs. Ohio
Even before the season started, I have been talking about Western Michigan and they were my pick back in August to win the MAC. I've still got them winning, even though Coach Frank Solich and Ohio has experience in this championship game. I am still a huge believer in the Broncos, and I honestly think that they should be ranked higher than #17. Their offense is easily one of the best in the nation, averaging nearly 45 points, and 503 yards per game (257 passing, 246 rushing). Ohio is only averaging 26.8 points and 404 yards per game, so I don't think they'll be able to keep up with WMU on the scoreboard. Plus, the Bobcats are giving up an average of 254 yards passing to opponents this season, so the dynamic duo of QB Zach Terrell and WR Corey Davis should have another field day. Davis is averaging 15.5 yards per catch and has 17 TD receptions already this season (20.5% of his catches have been TDs). I don't expect Ohio to be very close in this one, they've had offensive struggles a few times this year, and the Broncos give up less than 20 points per game. I've got Western Michigan fulfilling my prediction with a 48-17 victory and a MAC Championship over Ohio. ROW THE BOAT!!
Pac-12 Championship
#8 Colorado vs. #4 Washington
For the record, I am extremely disgusted by Colorado being ranked #8 and having a shot not only at the Pac-12 Title, but with some help maybe a shot at Playoff contention. With that being said, the Buffs are playing some very good football and look like a legitimate threat to knock off the Huskies and dash their playoff dreams. Washington's only slip up came against the Trojans, in a game where they only mustered up 13 points and just 276 total yards of offense (259 passing & 17 rushing). Those were well off their season averages of 45 points and 485 total yards. Colorado's two losses this season have both come on the road, one at the Big House where they were competitive for a while against the Wolverines, and one to the Trojans as well in a tight, 21-17 game. Statistically, the two teams are nearly the same! Washington averages just under 45 points per game with 485 total yards and only giving up 329 yards. Colorado is a little lower on points with 35 per game, but average 470 total yards and only give up 323. Washington has blown out nearly everyone they've faced this season while the Buffs have kept things a little closer. The big factors to watch in this game are the star QBs for each team. Washington has yet to face a great dual-threat QB like Sefo Liufau, so his running ability could be a huge difference maker in this game. Liufau has 7 rushing TDs this season, 5 of which have come in their past three games where he's also totaled 223 yards on the ground. Washington could have a difficult time containing Sefo, and a difficult time stopping him as he's completing 64.6% of his passes, averaging nearly 8 yards per throw. Defensively, Colorado will face the another great QB in Jake Browning. The Buffs gave up 325 yards and 3 TDS through the air against Wazzu star Luke Falk a couple of weeks ago, but did force two turnovers and held the Cougars to just 4/15 on third down conversions. Browning will really need to be careful with his throws as CU's defense has 15 picks so far this season. Watch Safety Tedric Thompson (#9) for the Buffs, he's a big play maker on defense.
If Washington wins, they're almost guaranteed a playoff spot based off their current #4 ranking. However, I always like chaos, and I really think Colorado could pull the upset. It's championship week, so I might as well make some bold picks right? I want to see some chaos, and I think the Buffs pull the upset 36-33. We'll see if I'm right, Washington has to prove themselves to be a playoff team.
Saturday Games
American Athletic Conference Championship
Temple at #19 Navy
Speaking of chaos, we turn our focus to the Temple-Navy game for the American Conference Championship. The Owls get the bid in the East since they have the tie-breaker game over USF, and the Midshipmen come out of the West looking for a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl Game. Navy is currently ranked #19, two spots behind the leading Group of 5 schools Western Michigan. An article by ESPN laid out an interesting scenario on how Navy could potentially "paralyze" the bowl system with a win over Temple. Since they are ranked just two spots behind WMU (and the highest ranked Group of 5 team gets the New Year's Six Bowl bid), a number of bowl officials have said that a Navy win would cause a delay in the rankings and selection because they would then have to wait until the Army-Navy game in case Navy were to win or lose that game. I still think Western Michigan will get the New Year's Six bid (they deserve it going 12-0 after being the worst team in the nation just a couple years ago), but if the committee believes Navy should be higher ranked after the Temple game, or believes that the Army-Navy game could impact the rankings, then the bowl selection process would need to be postponed until after that game and the committee makes their decision. Since bowl season starts just a week after the Army-Navy game, that would give teams only a couple of days to organize travel plans, hotels and events for the players. Teams typically fly out a couple of days before the bowl game to enjoy the city, tour around, practice, and prep for the game. So you can see how a delayed bowl selection would cause issues on a number of levels! Nonetheless, Temple and Navy will still play, and one of them will be crowned the AAC champion.
Shifting the focus to the game, Navy is the favorite, but I wouldn't count out the Owls too quickly. Again, they have one of the better defenses not only in the conference, but the nation. Giving up only 17.8 points and 273 total yards, the Owls ride into the AAC Championship on a 6 game win streak. The Midshipmen don't have quite as much defense, but they can seemingly score at will on anyone! They're averaging 41.7 points per game, but have scored 66 and 75 in their past two games. The ground game is their main focus, accounting for 342 of their 470 total yard average per game. Temple only gives up 128 yards rushing per game on defense, but everyone has trouble defending the Triple Option attack by the Midshipmen. I expect this to be a tight game, but a high-scoring one. I'll go with the Midshipmen (not just for the chaos) in a 40-35 victory. Eric has Temple winning by a TD for one of his upsets.
#10 Oklahoma State at #9 Oklahoma (Bedlam)
Once again, the battle of Bedlam carries a lot of weight in not only the Big XII conference, but the playoff picture as well. I still say no Big XII team will make the playoff this year, but OU and OSU both have outside chances if they get some help in my opinion. The 10th ranked Cowboys travel to Norman looking to avenge the 58-23 shellacking they took at Boone Pickens Stadium a year ago. Yet again, this will prove to be a tough task as the Sooners are riding an 8 game win streak after starting the year with a rough 1-2 record. They have been extremely explosive on offense, averaging 45.3 points and 550 yards per game. Star WR DeDe Westbrook has been the focal point of this dynamic attack, racking up 1,354 yards and 15 TDs receiving this season. The bad thing for OSU though, is Westbrook isn't the Sooners' only weapon. The two-headed rushing monster of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine have combined for 1,819 yards and 17 TDs on the ground so far this year. Plus, we can't forget about their Heisman-caliber QB Baker Mayfield. In my opinion, the Sooners just have too many weapons for the Cowboys to slow down. The only way the Pokes win this game, is to create a couple of turnovers and outscore the Sooners. They have the potential, because Oklahoma gives up 287 yards passing per game on average, and Mason Rudolph can sling it, averaging 335 yards passing per game. There will probably be a lot of points put up in this game like a normal Big XII shootout, but I think the Sooners will have too much offense for the Pokes. Big Game Bobby wins another Bedlam game 47-31.
SEC Championship
#1 Alabama vs. #15 Florida
The tide will roll. That's honestly about all I have to say on this game, because I don't see Florida standing much of a chance in this one. They may be able to slow the Tide down a bit since they have a tough defense, but that's about it. The Gators' defense might be their best chance at scoring, but I wouldn't count too much on their offense. Florida only averages 24 points per game, and usually struggles to get that many. They may find a few ways to move the ball against Bama, but I doubt the will crack 20. I would love to see the upset, and their strong defense gives them a slight chance, but in the end, the tide just never seems to stop rolling. I'm taking Bama in a strong 38-14 win.
Mountain West Conference Championship
San Diego State at Wyoming
The first match-up between these two teams just a couple weeks ago on November 19th proved to be a great game with a Hail Mary and a failed two-point conversion that gave the Cowboys the victory. I've enjoyed watching Wyoming this year, and they're going to be a difficult team to beat if Sophomore QB Josh Allen keeps getting better. However, I've always said that you NEVER, and I mean NEVER, want to play the same team twice in one season, especially just a couple weeks removed from a big upset on that team. In the first meeting, SDSU was demolished by Wyoming's run game, which piled up 205 yards (131 of those coming from RB Brian Hill). Look for the Aztecs to focus on stopping the run in this game, and hopefully limiting Wyoming's ability to keep the ball away. Eric is sticking with his hometown Aztecs, and I agree in this one. Wyoming has some help playing at home, but I think Pumphrey has a huge game and SDSU wins the Mountain West 33-24.
ACC Championship
#3 Clemson vs. #23 Virginia Tech
The Tigers are looking to win back-to-back ACC championships and make their second straight trip to the CFP. Both teams come into this game with a lot of confidence, blowing out each of their rivals last week by 40+ points. An upset would be quite fun, and cause a lot of havoc for the Playoff Committee on who to fill the open spot, but the Tigers are not easy to beat. Va. Tech has been up and down this year, showing flashes with big wins over UNC and Miami, but then falling to teams like Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Clemson could easily have 4 more losses on the season, but with a little bit of luck, and some strong stops late in games, the Tigers have found themselves primed for another Title run. The Hokies have already pulled a couple of upsets this season, so don't count them out. The big keys to watch will be the QB play in this game. Both QBs have completion percentages in the mid-60s, and their running ability keeps all opposing defenses on their toes. One big stat I found interesting was that Watson has only been sacked 11 times this season while Jerod Evans has been sacked 24 times. With Clemson's stout defense, Evans could be under a lot of pressure on Saturday night. Virginia Tech will have to keep him up right if they want a chance at the upset because Clemson's defense only gives up 17 points and just over 300 yards per game. My friend Eric is calling VT for the upset, but I can't quite pull the trigger on this one. I think Watson leads Clemson to a big win and a spot in the CFP. Tigers 35, Hokies 23.
BIG 10 Championship
#6 Wisconsin vs. #7 Penn State
This game is arguably the most evenly matched one of championship weekend. The Badgers and Nittany Lions square off in Indianapolis for the BIG 10 Title and an outside shot at the College Football Playoffs. Again, chaos will likely have to be created to give the winner of this game a chance, but each will have some strong arguments, especially Penn State since they beat Ohio State (man I love referencing that). Wisconsin has the edge in the predictions, but this game will be close no matter what. Two solid defenses, two decent offenses, and two great running backs to watch. Penn State's Saquon Barkely is often referred to as one of the best backs in the nation, but Corey Clement from Wisconsin is no slouch either. Even with Clement sharing carries with a couple of other backs, he's still the main back for the Badgers and has over 1,100 yards and 13 TDs rushing. Barkley has 1,219 yards and 15 TDs on the ground this season, so controlling the line of scrimmage and shutting down the opponents ground game will be the biggest factor to watch in this game. Forcing the QBs to win the game with their arms could be the difference, especially for the Nittany Lions. The Badgers just seem to switch QBs at will during games, so forcing them to drop back and pass constantly could get them out of rhythm early on. On the other side, Trace McSorely has played extremely well this season, but he has yet to face the Badgers defense. They give up only 13.7 points and 292 yards per game while forcing a lot of turnovers. Ball security will be another key factor in this game. Look for Wisconsin to pressure the young QB with lots of blitz packages. Overall this one is honestly a coin flip in my opinion. Both teams are very good on both sides of the ball and minimize their mistakes. Eric is calling for the Penn State upset, but I'm taking the Badgers. I think Wisconsin's play through their tough record really shows how good they are, just a couple of close losses to Michigan and Ohio State are all that's holding them back from the CFP. Wisconsin wins a tight one 24-23.
I hope you all enjoyed reading my picks for Championship weekend and are ready to see some great games! Let's hope for some chaos and see what the committee does! Enjoy the games and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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