Good morning Football fans!! I hope you're all ready for another fantastic day of College Football as we move into October and the heart of the season. There may not be a lot of big ranked games this weekend, but there are some great match ups and a lot of potential for upset! Here are my big games to watch today and who I think is going to get the win. Enjoy!
#4 Penn State at Northwestern
Yes, Penn State has been rolling through the majority of their competition. However, Pat Fitzgerald is known for causing headaches in games like this. Northwestern has not looked great yet this year, but seemed to find something good last week as they nearly came back against a tough Wisconsin team on the road. Clayton Thorson needs to take care of the ball in this one, and make smarter choices. Taking that sack for a safety last week destroyed all their chances at the comeback. If they can attack the Nittany Lion defense early, they may be able to keep this one closer than most people think. My only key is to get the ball to RB Justin Jackson as much as possible. Northwestern is lacking a lot of dynamic weapons, but Jackson is easily the best player on their team. He only has 273 on the ground and 103 through the air this season, but has recorded 4 TDs this year and is very dangerous in the return game. Speaking of return game, apparently Saquon Barkley likes to return kicks now as he opened last week with a 98 yard kick return for a TD. Barkley has proven that he can do just about anything short of cure cancer, so expect Penn State to keep living through him. The Wildcats did hold Wisconsin's Johnathan Taylor to just 80 yards on the ground last week, but containment out of the backfield will be the biggest key to watch with Barkley. He's an incredible receiver out of the backfield and I think he has yet another incredible performance. Northwestern is 14 point underdogs at home, but with an early kick and some resurgence, I think they'll keep it just under that. Penn State still wins without any big issues. Nittany Lions 31, Wildcats 20.
#5 Georgia at Vanderbilt
Vandy has not lived up to the hype I gave them over the past couple weeks, and this is arguably their last chance to make something big happen with their season. The 5th ranked Bulldogs walk into Nashville after back-to-back blowout wins against Mississippi State and Tennessee. Their defense has been immovable so far this season, giving up 244 yards per game on average and just under 10 points. Vandy QB Kyle Shumur will look to lead his team back to they spotlight they want to be in. He has 985 yards with 11 TDs and just 1 pick so far this season, but has not had much help. Their run game is practically non-existent, averaging just 79.2 yards per game. Plus, the Commodores are giving up 200+ on the ground per game, so they're loosing the Time of Possession battle as well. Vandy ranks 103rd while Georgia ranks 30th in that category. It won't be as bad as Bama, but Georgia should look solid in this game. Bulldogs win it on the road 39-17.
#13 Miami at Florida State
At the begging of the season, this looked like one of the biggest games the ACC would see this season. Injuries and tough losses has diluted this rivalry to the national eye, but no matter what, the 'Canes and the 'Noles always have a great game. Miami rolls into this game after man-handling Duke on the road last week 31-6. Mark Walton, RB for the Canes, has been a 1 man wrecking crew this season, with 403 rushing yards, 91 receiving yards and 3 TDs. Because Florida State's secondary is the biggest strength of the team, look for Miami to run Walton quite a bit. The 'Noles have been strong on defense all together, only giving up an average of 333 yards per game, but their offense has been the issue. They're averaging under 100 yards per game rushing, and Freshman QB James Blackman has been sacked 9 times in just two starts thus far. Protection will be crucial if Florida State wants to win this game. Now all these stats are nice, but since it's a Rivalry game, you can throw out most of it and just ask who wants it more? Miami hasn't beaten the Seminoles in 7 years, so look for Mark Richt's squad to come out ready. Everyone has written FSU off of the map this year, so we'll see if they can bounce back. I'm sticking with the U though, Miami 27, FSU 24.
LSU at #21 Florida
Is Ed Orgeron coaching for his job? Yes, yes he is. After the Homecoming loss to Troy last week, LSU is reeling after hiring Orgeron after his interim season in 2016. I said it before and I'll say it again, Orgeron was not a smart hire. Nonetheless, he's there, and a $12 Million buyout will likely keep him there for a while. The wounded Tigers limp into the Swamp to take on the re-surging Gators who are looking to keep pace with Georgia in the SEC East. Neither team has been very impressive this season, but I think Florida has it slightly more put together. LSU either comes together as a team or falls apart in this game. I expect both teams to stick to the rushing attack in this game because Danny Etling has not been good for LSU at QB and Florida will be going with Felipe Franks full time now after the injury to Luke Del Rio. I personally think Franks is the better option, but with LSU only giving up 184 through the air per game, the ground game will be crucial. Troy ran for 206 on the Tigers last week, so Florida will be following their game plan closely. There is just a 1 point spread in this game, but I don't think LSU has it together. Gators win it in the swamp 27-21.
Michigan State at #7 Michigan
The Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy will take place under the lights for the first time a the Big House. Sparty is coming in off a solid performance against Iowa at home and the Wolverines are coming off a BYE. They Maize and Blue will be without starting QB Wilton Speight as he is out for a while with his injury. John O'Korn will be his replacement and honestly could be an upgrade for the Wolverines. He won't have many weapons, but I expect this to be a defensive game regardless. Michigan & Michigan State have two of the toughest defenses in the nation giving up 203 yards and 248 yards per game on average respectively. Both teams also give up an average of under 20 points per game. I think the X factor in this game will be MSU QB Brian Lewerke. He's been a dynamic weapon for the Spartans, throwing for 963, 8 TDs and 2 picks while also leading the team in rushing with 248 yards and 2 TDs. Michigan has yet to face a dual threat QB like Lewerke this season, so he could cause some headaches. You never want to assume anything in a Rivalry game, especially one like the Big Brother- Little Brother one. I think this will be a tight one, but I like Michigan's defense at home. Wolverines win it 23-20.
#11 Washington State at Oregon
Wazzu had the game of the week in week 5 after their big upset on USC. The Cougars are playing really well this season, and I think it's primarily because of their defense. Yes, we all know Luke Falk and the high-powered offense, but the Cougars are playing much better defense than they have in previous seasons. They are only giving up 275.2 yards per game on average and just 20.2 points. Oregon will be without starting QB Justin Herbert, so their offensive production could take a hit. The Ducks are also giving up nearly 240 yards through the air per game, and I think Luke Falk could hit that in the first half. I think Wazzu lives up to the hype and Mike Leach has them ready to play in this one. I'm taking the Cougars on the road, because if I don't pick them, I'm scared their DT Hercules Mata'afa will come and destroy me. Watch #50 for the Crimson on defense, he's a game changer! Cougars eat up the Ducks 35-17.
#23 West Virginia at #8 TCU
College Gameday headed down to Fort Worth, TX for this Big XII match-up between the Mountaineers and the Horned Frogs. Two QBs reviving their careers from the SEC have found their way to WVU and TCU. Will Grier has looked very solid for the Mountaineers so far this season, passing for 1,374 yards, 13 TDs and just 3 picks. He also has 131 yards on the ground and has only been sacked 4 times this year. WVU's offensive line has done a fantastic job protecting Grier and giving him time to throw. They'll need to keep up that success today because TCU has 11 sacks and 30 Tackles for Loss already this season. They'll be coming after Grier early and often. The other QB reviving his career is Kenny Hill. The star QB has been playing really well for the Horned Frogs this season, leading their high-powered offense with 965 passing yards, 9 TDs and just 3 picks as well. With all the talk of QBs in this game, people may forget about the running backs. Justin Crawford (WVU) and Darius Anderson (TCU) have been phenomenal so far this season for their respective squads. Crawford is averaging 7.4 yards per carry and has 6 TDs while Anderson isn't far behind with 6.3 ypc average and 6 TDs of his own. Both defenses will be challenged with how balanced these two offensive attacks are. One more player to watch for is WVU wideout David Sills V. He's the infamous 13 year old QB Lane Kiffin offered a scholarship to, and now he's one of the Mountaineers leading receiver with 396 yards and 7 TDs! At 6'4, he's a very big target for Grier who is very difficult to defend. This is going to be a great game to watch this afternoon, and I like the Frogs at home. They went into Stillwater and shutdown Mason Rudolph and the Pokes. I think their defense is tough to move on and they create a lot of opportunities for their dynamic offense. Horned Frogs win it at home over the Mountaineers 38-28.
#9 Wisconsin at Nebraska
The best game of the week will obviously take place in Lincoln, NE as the Badgers travel to take on the Cornhuskers! This is arguably the biggest game of the season for Nebraska, and they need to start winning if they're going to make this Rivalry for real. In my opinion, this game will likely decide the BIG 10 West Division. Wisconsin is the clear favorite in this game, but I'll give you all the reasons on why the upset is going to happen! First off, the Huskers are honoring the REAL 1997 National Championship team (Michigan is trying to do the same, but we all know Nebraska was better). When you bring back a team like the 1997 Champs, you'd better show up to your game. Second, Nebraska is not a fun place to play for opponents, especially at night. The Huskers have a nation-leading 20 game home night game win streak, and the last time they beat Wisconsin? 2012 at home under the lights! Looking at the game, both teams will be getting some key players back from injury. Wisconsin will get star TE Troy Fumagalli back from injury, who causes headaches for every defense he faces. Fumagalli has 236 yards and 3 TDs on the season even with missing last week, he'll be a big boost for the Badgers. For Nebraska, most of their help returns on defense. Linebacker Marcus Newby, Safety Josh Kalu and even Corner Chris Jones could make an appearance! I'm not too confident in Chris Jones playing a lot of minutes, but just to have him suited up on the sidelines will help that secondary and their confidence. Both teams will look to establish a solid ground game, so containment is key for the Blackshirts. Northwestern held their RB Johnathan Taylor to just 80 yards on the ground last week, forcing Alex Hornibrook to make throws to beat them. Nebraska needs to do much of the same. Hornibrook is consistent and smart with his throws. Applying pressure in passing situations will be crucial for the Huskers. Finally, to stop Wisconsin, you need to TACKLE! Nebraska has struggled all season with tackling, and if they struggle with that today, it won't look pretty. On offense, Nebraska needs to live through the run. Eat up as much clock as possible and keep the ball away from the Wisconsin offense. Protection is still crucial and improved last week against Illinois. However, Wisconsin's front seven is much more formidable than the Illini's. If Tanner Lee has time, he'll need to make smart throws and play calling will be crucial. Consistency on offense and getting the ball to their play makers will give Nebraska the best chance of winning. Feed Ozigbo and Wilbon as much as possible! I'm excited for this game and there's nothing quite like Memorial Stadium under the lights! Get ready for the Blackout and GO BIG RED! Nebraska pulls the upset 24-23!
Here are some Quick Hit games to watch that could get interesting:
Iowa State at #3 Oklahoma- If this was in Ames, IA, I would be more inclined to pick the upset, but I think Oklahoma at home is too much. The Cyclones can score some points though, look for them to cut into that 32 point spread. OU wins it 41-20.
Wake Forrest at #2 Clemson- Does Clemson fall asleep in this one? Wake nearly pulled the upset on FSU last week but was too conservative, we'll see if they pull any surprises on the Tigers. That defense is too much though, Clemson should be fine. Tigers 37, Demon Decons 10.
#21 Notre Dame at North Carolina- The Tar Heels have issues across the board and give up 220+ on the ground per game. Notre Dame averages over 300 on the ground alone, Irish will roll. Notre Dame wins this easy 38-10.
Minnesota at Purdue- A lack-luster match-up in the BIG 10 West, but it could be fun to see how these teams respond to their recent losses. I say Boiler-UP and that offense gets rolling. Boilermakers 35, Golden Gophers 23.
Stanford at #20 Utah- The Utes have been very quite all season, but are sitting at 4-0. They have the improved Stanford Cardinal coming in and they're lead by RB Bryce Love. With the QB change, I think Stanford is back on track and I'm not sure Utah can contain Love. This is their first major opponent and I think Stanford runs away with this one. The Trees take it 33-21.
I hope you enjoyed all my game picks and are ready for a fantastic Saturday of College Football! Thanks for reading and GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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