Good morning College Football fans! I hope you're all ready for a fantastic day of football! Even though the Huskers have a BYE week, there's still a great slate of College Football games to watch today. There's a couple of ranked match ups, couple of rivalries and most importantly, lots of potential for CHAOS! So let's get to my big games to watch this weekend and all my game picks, enjoy!
#10 Oklahoma State at Texas
The Pokes roll into Austin, TX looking to keep their CFP hopes alive and keep pace in the Big XII. Texas is coming off a close loss to their arch rival, the Sooners, in the Red River Rivalry last week. The Horns were down early, but came back and made it a close one later in the game. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger accounted for 388 total yards and 2 TDs, so OSU will have their hands full with him today. This looks to be a typical, high scoring, shootout Big XII game as both teams give up an average of 24 points per game while averaging 48.8 (Pokes) and 33.7 (Horns). The biggest factor to watch will be Mason Rudolph vs. the Texas Secondary. The Longhorns rank 109th in the country for pass defense, giving up 264.8 yards passing per game. That means Mason Rudolph and James Washington will have a field day. Rudolph already has more than 2,300 yards on the season with a 19:4 TD to INT ratio, and I expect those numbers to get a boost today. Texas has played teams tough though, taking USC and Oklahoma both to the wire. I think Sam Ehlinger could be one of the best QBs in the nation in a couple years based on his play so far this season, but I'm not quite sure if he can pull the upset over Rudolph yet. Texas will hang around, but Rudolph and the Pokes will start to pull away late. Cowboys win a tough one on the road 41-28.
Tennessee at #1 Alabama
I honestly don't think this game will go very well for you know who, but it's still technically a rivalry game, and beating the spread against Bama can be considered a win on some level, especially to Tennessee. The Vols are looking to keep it respectable as they stroll into Tuscaloosa, AL after losing their last two games by a combined 56-9. They fought tough last week, but gave up a few late scores to allow South Carolina to come away with the win. Looking at Alabama, they do the typical Bama thing and score 40+ per game while giving up about 10 and only 254 total yards on average. With Tennessee's struggling offense, they might be lucky to cross the 50 in this game. They did find a spark by changing QBs last week, but I'm not sure how well the Freshman, Jarrett Guarantano, can handle Bama on the road. They might cross the 50 with Guarantano, but after watching them last week, I doubt they'll score. This is more of a prediction to see how bad Tennessee will lose. I'm taking Bama big! The Tide Roll along over their "rival" 40-7.
Syracuse at #8 Miami
The Cuse are coming off the major upset of Clemson last week, but now have to travel down to South Beach to take on the 8th ranked Canes. Can lightening strike twice? Syracuse proved they can move the ball against one of the toughest defenses in the nation last week, and Eric Dungey leads an offensive attack that averages 463 yards (318 passing) and 31.3 points per game. Miami has had a couple of nail-biters in their past two games, but Malik Rosier keeps this team humming along. He's been very impressive this season, especially late in the game during clutch time. He's lead back to back game winning drives against Florida State and Georgia Tech, so I don't think he's too nervous when trailing late in the game. No matter what, he'll have to watch out for the pressure form Syracuse, the Orange had 4 sacks and 5 TFL on the Tigers last week, so look for them to bring the heat early and often in this game. I think Miami will take this one, but Syracuse will definitely play them tough, they're not just a flash upset team. Dungey keeps them in it for a while, but Miami will finish off on the right foot. Canes beat the Cuse 33-24.
Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon
Indiana at #18 Michigan State
The Hoosiers and the Spartans are set to square off in East Lansing in another setting of this old rivalry. Indiana came away with a 24-21 Overtime victory last year, so you know this one is going to be a battle. Sparty has been playing well this season, especially on defense. They have the 5th ranked total defense in the nation and only give up 18.2 points per game. The issues lie primarily with their offense, which only scores 23.7 on average per game. Indiana's offense has been much more dynamic under the Freshman QB, Peyton Ramsey. Ramsey has 815 through the air with 7 TDs and 4 picks so far this season, but his scrambling ability has been the most painful for opposing defenses. Ramsey often keeps drives alive with his legs, and is one of the better QBs Sparty's defense has faced this season. The problem with Indiana is closing out the game. They struggle mightily when keeping games close, as evidence of their OT loss against Michigan last week. This game has a 6.5 point spread, but I think it could be closer yet again. Two tough defenses and two dual threat QBs make for an interesting one in the BIG 10 this afternoon! I'll take Sparty with a close win at home. I always like the upset opportunity, but Indiana has failed me more times than not when I pick them. Michigan State wins the game and the Old Brass Spittoon 27-23.
#20 UCF at Navy
Scott Frost played a little QB in practice earlier this week to make sure his team was ready for this option attack brought by Navy. The Midshipmen average nearly 400 yards per game on the ground, so UCF will need to be very disciplined when defending the option in this one. Navy can hurt you with so many different players in a number of directions, so defensively UCF must maintain their gaps all game long. On the offensive side of the ball, the Knights are lead by Sophomore QB, McKenzie Milton, and have the #1 scoring offense in the nation, averaging 50.6 points per game. Navy's defense has struggled, giving up nearly 400 yards on average and 28 points per game, so this seems like prime picking for Frost & Co. Wrong! Navy is a very tough team to beat, especially in Annapolis. They keep games close and run the clock all game long. They don't make many mistakes and are always a dangerous team when an underdog. I've picked them for upsets before, but I'm not sure they'll quite have it today. It'll be close early on, but I think UCF has a chance to be that Group of 5 team to break into one of the New Year's Day bowl games. Gold Knights win a tough one on the road 41-33.
Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh
#11 USC at #13 Notre Dame
Another great chapter will be written for this rivalry as the Trojans march into South Bend to take on the Irish. Both teams have 1 loss, and have a shot at the playoff if they win out. However, when your arch rival stands in your way, that just makes for a great game! USC has not been the dominant team everyone expected to compete for the National Title, but they've battled a lot of injuries so far this season. They've also battled the turnover bug as Darnold has thrown 9 picks this season and has fumbled a handful of times as well. To beat Notre Dame, they need to hold onto the ball. The Irish have caused 14 turnovers so far this season, so they'll be looking to take it away under the lights tonight. Looking at the Irish offense, they're lead by a dynamic rushing attack that averages 308 yards per game. Josh Adams has nearly 800 yards rushing on the season, and Junior QB Brandon Wimbush will be back this week as well. Wimbush has been putting up solid numbers, throwing for 783 with a 6:2 TD to INT ratio so far this season while also rushing for 402 yards and 8 TDs on the ground. The last dual threat QB the Trojans faced was Texas' Sam Ehlinger, and he had over 300 total yards on them. Wimbush is a better runner than Ehlinger, so look for a lot of option attack to keep USC off their game. Under the lights, anything can happen in South Bend, and not many people have seen much from Notre Dame this season. The back half of their schedule is one of the toughest left in the nation, so this night marks the start of a "time to prove" for the Irish. I think they're a dangerous team and USC has too many turnovers to win this game. Irish take home the Shillelagh with a 34-30 thriller!
#19 Michigan at #2 Penn State
The WHITE OUT! Michigan heads to Happy Valley to take on the Mighty Nittany Lions of Penn State. Two BIG 10 East heavyweights are set for one of the biggest games of the year under the lights. Michigan has the best defense in the nation according to the numbers, but probably the worst offense according to the other numbers. Penn State has one of the best offenses in the nation, all lead by the duo of Trace McSorely and Saquon Barkely. Barkley continues to march on with his Heisman campaign, but faces a wall tonight. The Wolverine's defense gives up only 223 yards per game on average, and love to create pressure on opposing QBs. McSorely struggles mightily under pressure, so look for lots of quick throws, screens and roll outs to keep him safe from the Michigan pass rush. On the other side of the ball, Michigan needs to pray all game long just to move the ball. Everyone has been forgetting to mention the Nittany Lion defense. Penn State is #9 in total defense, and gives up just 9 points per game. No one has been able to move the ball against Penn State, and I highly doubt Michigan will be with all of their offensive struggles. This will be a tough, grinder-type game down in Happy Valley, but I think Penn State's defense makes the biggest play and brings this game home. I've been saying the Nittany Lions are Playoff material all season long, and I'm sticking by it! Penn State tops Michigan 24-10.
Here are some quick hits on other interesting games this week:
Iowa at Northwestern- A bit of a sleeper in the BIG 10, but these two teams always play tough games. Both have great defenses, but the Wildcats lack of offense could do them in, much like it has done in other games. They did hold Barkley to just 75 yards rushing though, so Wadley could have a tough day for the Hawks. Iowa will be without LB Josey Jewel though, giving NW a big advantage! We'll see what the Wildcats can do with it, but Northwestern needs to start feeding Justin Jackson if they want to start winning games. I really want to see the Wildcats win, but Iowa will probably win a dumb one, 28-23.
Louisville at Florida State- Last year, Lamar Jackson accounted for 5 TDs against the 'Noles, and he'll be looking for more this year. Both of these teams are looking to get their seasons back on track as we move into the second half of the year, but both teams have to face two play making QBs. I think Lamar has the edge though, Florida State is a mess right now. Cardinals 40, Seminoles 30.
Boston College at Virginia- The Cavaliers are a sneaky 5-1 this season, and are playing incredible defense. They'll have their hands full with Boston College and their rushing attack. I think Virginia plays well at home and takes care of business though. Cavs win it over the Eagles 35-21.
Arizona State at Utah- The Sun Devils are coming off of a major upset over Washington while the Utes are coming off a tough, 1 point loss to the Trojans. Both teams will be ready to prove that last week wasn't just a fluke in their own ways, but I'm taking the home team. I don't think Arizona State can repeat that defensive performance from last week. Utes win it 30-17.
#23 West Virginia at Baylor- This could be a trap game for the Mountaineers. Baylor has struggled, but they can always put up points. Plus, WVU is coming off a big comeback against Texas Tech last week and has to look forward to a visit from Oklahoma State next week. Baylor keeps it close and may even upset! I'll stick with the Mountaineers, but this one could go either way in my opinion! WVU 37, Baylor 35.
Thanks for reading all my predictions and enjoy your football Saturday! We'll see if we can get any more chaos today, GO BIG RED!
#CollegeFootballKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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