Week 4 Predictions

     Hello football fans and welcome to Week 4 of the College Football season! A lot of teams are starting conference play this week and I've got a great slate of games for you all. The first few weeks have not gone the best for me with predictions, but I'm looking to turn it around starting this week. Enjoy my analysis and predictions of all the big games this week!

Week 3 Prediction Results: 4-7
Overall Prediction Results: 14-18


#22 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama

     One of just ranked v. ranked match-ups this week in College Football takes place down in "Title Town" as the Aggies take on the Tide. We all know what Bama is going to bring to the table, a dominant defense with an offense that now averages 56.7 points per game. A&M can definitely put up points too though, averaging 44.3 per game and nearly 600 yards of offense. Kellen Mond has a strong grasp of the offense and this team went toe to toe with Clemson just a couple weeks ago. Bama looks to be stronger than Clemson at this point in the season, but this will be the biggest test they've faced so far. The Aggies put a lot of pressure on the Clemson backfield recording 7 tackles for loss. The Tigers were able to find a lot of success through the air however, so I expect Tua to have a big game passing yet again. The key factor to watch will be Kellon Mond against the young Bama secondary. Mond racked up 480 yards and 3 TDs against Clemson, so expect A&M to come out with some deep balls. I'm excited to watch this game and I definitely think the Aggies will break into that 26 point spread. Bama keeps rolling, but the Aggies make this an enjoyable game to watch.
Alabama 47, Texas A&M 31.


Kansas at Baylor

     Now this isn't really one of the big games of the week, but it should be interesting nonetheless. Kansas is coming off of two straight wins, including a 55-14 BEAT DOWN on Rutgers last week. Baylor is coming off of a tight loss to a very surprising Duke team last week, and has a big road trip to Norman looming for next week. They could be looking a head just a bit, giving Kansas another opportunity for the upset. Senior QB Peyton Bender is going to be starting for the Jayhawks, but it's their defense I want to talk about. The Jayhakws are only giving up 15.7 points per game and under 300 total yards. The Bears are averaging 500 total yards on offense per game along with just under 40 points, so this will be the area of the game to watch. Kansas has only 5 conference games since 2009, but I think this team is motivated and this is their most winnable game when it comes to the Big XII slate. Baylor is caught sleeping and Kansas wins 3 in a row! Rock-Chalk Jayhawks 34, Baylor Bears 30.


#17 TCU at Texas

     The longhorns are really starting to make me mad (as usual). They lost their opener to Maryland when I thought they'd be a motivated team, but then demolished USC at home last week with some very impressive defense. The Horns racked up 3 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss last week against the Trojans and held USC to just 14 points, shutting them out in the last 3 quarters. The Frogs are coming off a tough loss to Ohio State last week and could have a bit of a hangover early in the game. Their defense played well last week, but after giving up a few big plays late in the game they couldn't quite keep pace with the Buckeyes.  There's a lot of firepower on offense for Gary Patterson's squad, but turnovers were a big issue last week as they gave the ball away 3 times, two of them resulting in defensive touchdowns. Texas will look to replicate the pressure it created last week to keep TCU QB Shawn Robinson frazzled. Texas is a 3 point favorite at home, but I think Patterson will have his team ready to play. TCU bounces back and pulls off a big win in Austin. Horned Frogs win it 33-23.


#7 Stanford at #20 Oregon

     The big game of the week takes place in Autzen Stadium, one of the loudest in the nation. The Stanford Cardinal travel up to Oregon to take on the Mighty Ducks. Justin Herbert, the Ducks' QB, has been very impressive this year, racking up 840 yards passing with 12 TDs and 4 picks. He'll face off against a Stanford defense that's giving up just 7.7 points per game and 301 yards on average. This will be the most dynamic QB the Cardinal have faced this season, so they will have a big test. In my opinion however, the biggest test in this game is with the Oregon secondary. The Ducks have given up an average of 226 passing yards per game, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside is healthy and ready to roll today. He only has 13 catches on the season, but 5 of those have been for TDs and he's racked up 324 yards which is good for 24.9 yards per catch! We all know what Bryce Love will do with the Stanford running game, but if the Ducks can't slow down Arcega-Whiteside, this will be a long night. They play-action game will be a big part of the Stanford offense and I expect K.J. Costello to step up and have a big night. Stanford continues their strong start to the season with a statement road win in Autzen. The Trees beat the Ducks 34-20.


#18 Wisconsin at Iowa (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)

     The first true test for the Hawkeyes comes to Iowa City for their BIG 10 opener against the Wisconsin Badgers. Of course, Wisconsin is not going to be in a happy mood after losing to BYU at home last week. Iowa has one of the top defenses in the nation, giving up just 8 points per game and 209 yards per game on average. However, they have yet to face a Heisman candidate this season, and Wisconsin RB Johnathan Taylor is just that. Taylor has 515 yards and 5 TDs on the ground already this season, and "struggled" last week with an average of 4.5 yards per carry. Iowa's defense will face a big test with the Badgers offensive line. The key factor to watch in this game is the QB battle of Nate Stanley vs. Alex Hornibrook. Their stats are remarkably similar, 63.2% completion rating for Hornibrook and 63.3% for Stanley, 595 yards passing for Hornibrook and 583 for Stanley. Plus 3 TDs and 2 picks for each. Stanley's completion numbers were inflated due to his performance last week, as he was only completing 52.9% over his first two games this season. Under the lights in Kinnick Stadium is never a fun place to play, but Wisconsin coming off a loss should be just enough motivation to push them over the top. Badgers edge out the Hawkeyes 27-23.


Arizona State at #10 Washington

     The Sun Devils lost their first road test against the Aztecs of SDSU, and things won't get easier as they travel up to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Huskies. Washington has been lackluster on offense this season, only averaging 27.3 points per game. For a team with so much experience, they've struggled to find a lot of rhythm thus far. Their defense has been solid however, giving up just 10.3 points per game. Arizona State's offense will have a tough time moving the ball, and if Manny Wilkins still can't get on the right page with his receivers, this could be a very long night and even longer season. Washington's defense shouldn't have many issues tonight, but if they can't find their offense, this could be closer than necessary. Jake Browning needs to stop throwing picks too, he's  at 4 so far this year. The Sun Devils have a tough defense as well, so look for that 18 point spread to be a bit closer. Huskies win it 30-17.


Nebraska at #19 Michigan

     First off, my realistic prediction for this game is not the best, but as a Husker fan I will give my reasons on why Nebraska can (and will in my slightly biased opinion) win this game! For anyone hoping to see Adrian Martinez today, don't hold your breath. Sources from the team have told me he likely won't see the field until Wisconsin at the earliest, which means it's still BUNCH TIME!! As I stated in my reflection post earlier this week, I was happy with Bunch's performance last week and am excited for him moving forward. He'll need a bit more help from his offense, especially up front on the O-line. Bunch was running for his life almost every other play last week, and Michigan's pass rush is a lot nastier than Troy's. Senior DL Chase Winovich has been reeking havoc on opponents this season with 6.5 tackles for loss and a sack through three games in 2018. Michigan will look to apply a lot of pressure to keep Bunch off balance. The Blackshirts will need to step up and keep the pressure Shae Patterson in this game for Nebraska to have a chance. The Huskers have 10 sacks already this season, so they'll be bringing the heat yet again. Secondary play needs to be better as the Wolverines have a lot of weapons on offense. The last factor to watch will be Special Teams. Nebraska has really struggled this season on Special Teams, but a big play or two in this area could swing this game in the Huskers favor! Coach Devaney's first road test was at Michigan, and he came away with a victory, so why not Coach Frost?! Nebraska wins this one 27-24!


Now for some Quick Hit Predictions on some other intriguing match ups this weekend:

South Carolina at Vanderbilt- The Gamecocks had their game canceled last week due to Hurricane Florence, so I'm sure they're ready to get back to football. However, they have a tough road test against the Commodores and a nasty defense. Vandy is only giving up 13 points per game and QB Kyle Shurmur looks to keep his strong season going against a shaky Gamecock defense. I like Vandy at home in this one, 33-21.


#14 Mississippi State at Kentucky- The Bulldogs have had a solid start to the Joe Moorehead era, but a road trip to Lexington won't be the easiest place to walk away with a win from. The Wildcats are unbeaten as well and the duo of QB Terry Wilson and RB Benny Snell Jr. is enough to give any team some headaches. This is going to be a tight game and I think Kentucky will give State a bit more than they bargained for. Bulldogs fight back late to pull of a tight one, but this could honestly go either way. Mississippi State 30, Kentucky 24.

#23 Boston College at Purdue- The Boilermakers are still looking for their first win of the season as they fell to Missouri by 3 last week, even with David Blough throwing for a school-record 572 yards. This is a sneaky trap game for BC as they're on the road and ranked for the first time since 2008. The key is to lean on AJ Dillon for the Eagles. However, Purdue is a talented team and I think they'll find a way to win. Boiler-Up! Purdue wins 34-27.

#24 Michigan State at Indiana- The Battle for the Old Brass Spittoon takes place in Bloomington, Indiana this year as Sparty takes on the rival Hoosiers. Tom Allen's squad is undefeated and has won some tight games this year. Michigan State has not performed well, but did have a week off to sit with the Arizona State loss. That's going to make the difference and Sparty wins the spittoon 35-21.

Thanks for reading all my gameday predictions and enjoy your Saturday! GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando