Welcome to Week 5 of the College Football season football readers! I'm starting to turn around my prediction record, but this week I can feel is going to be a good one. There is a fantastic setup of games today, and I've got a lot to predict on. There are some under-the-radar games that will be really fun to watch today, and two games that feature top 10 teams squaring off! Plus, I will be doing play by play announcing for the Huskers' game against Purdue on the campus radio station, 90.3 KRNU! If you use this link (http://krnu.unl.edu/) and click the KRNU button in the top right, you can listen into the broadcast of the game! Thanks for all your support and enjoy my predictions.
Week 4 Prediction Results: 6-5
Overall Prediction Results: 19-23
#12 West Virginia at #25 Texas Tech
The Mountaineers face their first true test of 2018 as they travel to Lubbuck to take on the red-hot Red Raiders. Texas Tech is averaging 52 points per game and is coming off a monster win over Big XII foe Oklahoma State 41-17 last weekend. Freshman QB Alan Bowman has taken over the starting roll and 1,557 yards, 10 TDs and just 2 picks to show for it. He'll be facing a tough WVU defense that's giving up just 12.3 points per game and has 7 sacks on the season. Heisman hopeful Will Grier leads the dynamic Mountaineer offense with over 1,100 passing yards and 14 TDs. The key factor to watch in this game will be the secondaries. Both teams have a lot of experience on the back ends of their respective defenses, but they will be tested with these two gunslingers throwing the ball around. I expect a lot of firepower and points to be put up in this game, but WVU is a Playoff team for me, and they get the tough win on the road 48-38.
Florida at #23 Mississippi State
Dan Mullen returns to Starkville for the first time as head coach of the Gators and not the Bulldogs. It's not likely he'll receive a warm welcome when he returns, but I think he should be applauded. He built up State into a team to watch out for in the SEC West and he took them to 8 straight bowl games, winning 5 of them (last bowl game was won by Interim Head Coach, Greg Knox). I doubt State fans will be happy he up and left them for the Gators, but I can understand why Mullen would be tired of playing Alabama and LSU every single year. Anyways, as we look to the game, the Bulldogs have a small advantage in this one. It's only a 7 point spread in their favor, and when you look at the stats, these teams are quite similar. Both are scoring around 40 points per game (UF: 41, MSU: 39.3) and neither team gives up many points either (UF: 16 points per game avg., MSU: 13.5 points per game avg.). I think State's defense is more talented, which could likely be the deciding factor. Dan Mullen now has to taste his own medicine with all of his former players he recruited coming after his new squad. Mississippi State will be quite motivated in this game, and they'll come away with a big statement win. Bulldogs 34, Gators 17. Dan Mullen still won't regret the move to Florida though, this team is on the rise.
Virginia Tech at #22 Duke
Last week, the Hokies were ranked #13 in the nation. Now they are unranked as they travel to Druham, NC to take on the Blue Devils. Virginia Tech was on the wrong side of one of the most historic upsets in CFB history last week as Old Dominion beat them 49-35. Justin Fuente said he liked his team better when everyone said they were bad, so we'll see how they play this week. The big question is how backup QB Ryan Willis will handle the QB1 duties since the stater, Sophomore Josh Jackson, suffered a broken fibula against the Monarchs last week and is out indefinitely. The rest of his team will definitely have to step up and help him though. On the other side, Duke has been playing with their own backup QB, Quentin Harris, for the past couple weeks after starter Daniel Jones suffered a broken collar bone. Harris has not been the most accurate passer, completing less than 50% of his passes, but he does boast a 6:0 TD to INT ratio. Besides, Duke's true strength lies with their suffocating defense. They're only giving up 15.3 points per game and have recorded 9 sacks for the season. Virginia Tech may be fired up after last week's game, but I've got Duke in this one. The Blue Devils are playing really well right now and I see that continuing this week. Duke beats Virginia Tech 30-20.
South Carolina at #17 Kentucky
This is a very interesting game as Kentucky looks to stay unbeaten and keep rolling as an unbeaten team. I never thought I'd see the Wildcats as a potential competitor in the SEC East, but RB Benny Snell Jr. has this team hyped up so far in 2018. The Junior already has 540 yards on the ground and 7 TDs, meaning he's over half way to his third consecutive 1,000+ yard season after just 4 games! Snell is one of the most underrated backs in the country. He's a powerful runner with great vision, and he's averaged over 5 yards per carry each of the last two seasons. The Gamecocks will have a difficult time slowing him down, especially after they gave up 271 yards rushing to Georgia a few weeks ago. South Carolina QB Jake Bentley should cause some headaches though, even for a Wildcat defense that has been surprisingly stout. He'll be looking for his big wideout Bryan Edwards (6'3, 220) a lot in this game, as he already has 3 TD catches this year. This is a tough game to pick, could go either way, but I'm really rolling with Kentucky. They made me regret not picking them last week and I'm on board with how this team is playing. Watch out for Benny Snell as a dark horse Heisman finalists as Kentucky beats South Carolina 31-27.
#19 Oregon at #24 Cal
This is one of the toughest games I had to pick this week to be honest. Cal is one of my sneaky teams this season, with potential to knock off any team and cause some havoc in the Pac-12 North. However, the Ducks are coming off of a heartbreaking loss at home to Stanford, and need a big win to get them back in the race for the division title. Justin Herbert had a great game last week, throwing for 346 yards and completing 78.8% of his passes. With Cal's defense only giving up 170 pass yards per game, he'll have to make smart throws to help his team get the win. The Golden Bear's rank 16th in the nation for total defense, and I think star RB, Senior Patrick Laird will have a big game today. I'm going with my gut and saying Cal wins a tight one at home 33-31. Maybe another overtime game for the Ducks, who knows?
#20 BYU at #11 Washington
This is my upset alert, trap game of the week. The Huskies have a 17 point spread over the Cougars, which I think is insane because BYU has already knocked off a top 5 team (on the road!!!) this season. Washington has one of the most dynamic QB-RB duos in the nation with Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin, but they don't seem to know how to do much with them. Their offense has only mustered up a 27.3 points per game average and Browning has 4 interceptions already this year. BYU plays extremely tough defense and only gives up 17 points per game. The Cougars have a +5 turnover margin and will look to hold down the Husky offense, much like they did to Wisconsin. Washington has one of the nation's best defenses (#17) as well, so I expect this to be a tight, hard-nosed football game. Cougar running back, Squally Canada, has 5 TDs this season, and he's a tough runner to bring down. I only picked Washington for the Pac-12, not the play offs, and BYU is nasty on the road. Cougars win it in another big upset 23-17.
#7 Stanford at #8 Notre Dame
The first of the two top 10 match-ups this week take place in South Bend, Indiana as the Cardinal square off against the Irish. Stanford has won 7 out of the last 9 games in this rivalry, including a current streak of 3 straight. However, the Irish have switched things up at QB, starting Junior Ian Book, who threw for 325 yards and 2 TDs while completing 73.5% of his passes. Notre Dame's running game hasn't been too bad either, as they average over 180 on the ground per game. In a strange twist of events, Bryce Love and Stanford haven't gotten much going on the ground, averaging just 104 yards per game as a team, but their passing attack with K.J. Costello and all of their 9 foot tall wide receivers has been thriving with 264 yards per game. The Cardinal really need to get Bryce Love going soon if they want a shot at the College Football Playoffs, and what better game than now against their rivals? The Irish have struggled at home this season, and gave up 326 yards through the air against Vandy. If Costello can keep slinging the ball out to his receivers, the size advantage could make for some more big plays. This is about the time of year when the Pac-12 starts to implode and keep themselves out of the playoffs, but Stanford showed a lot of fight in last week's comeback win. I think David Shaw has a special squad here and this is a huge resume booster when it comes to the playoffs. The Cardinal win a thriller in front of Touchdown Jesus 33-31.
#4 Ohio State at #9 Penn State
White Out conditions are expected tonight as the Buckeyes travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. This BIG 10 East showdown has been one of the best games over recent years, and has the makings of another big game this evening. This is a match-up of two of the best offenses in the nation, and two more potential playoff competitors. Dwayne Haskins has lead Ohio State's offense to new heights this season, throwing for just under 1,200 yards this year with a 16:1 TD to INT ratio and a mind-boggling 75.7% completion rating! Haskins is crazy accurate, and the Buckeyes have no shortage of talent for him to throw to. They're averaging 599 yards of total offense and 54.5 points per game. The Nittany Lions may have a difficult time slowing them down, but keeping pace shouldn't be much of an issue, as they average 55.5 points per game. Trace McSorely is one of the best and most underrated QBs in the nation in my opinion, and his stats are nothing to shake a stick at. He's not as accurate as Haskins, but still has 763 yards and 8 TDs compared to just 2 picks. What really sticks out to me is his poise and sense of awareness in the pocket. When you watch this kid play, it's like he knows exactly where and when the pressure is coming from, and he's always able to slip away. His dual-threat ability has given defenses headaches for years now, and McSorely already has 6 TDs on the ground this year. I think this could be his Heisman moment game and he'll have a breakout performance under the lights. Besides, he's never thrown a pick against the Buckeyes yet, and he's NEVER lost a game at Beaver Stadium! I expect a lot of offensive firepower to be showcased in this game, but secondary play will be very important. I'm anxious to see how Ohio State handles their first true ground attack with RB Miles Sanders averaging 7 yards per carry for Penn State. This may be a bit of a hopeful pick because I think Ohio State has a strong chance to be in the National Title game against Bama, but there's just something about those White Out games at Penn State. You never want to be a visiting team in those circumstances, and I think Ohio State will find out why. Nittany Lions win a BIG game in the BIG 10 East 45-41.
Purdue at Nebraska
Now as a student and fan, I will allow myself to make a prediction on this game. But I have always said that when I need to be unbiased, I would be. So when I step into that press box later today, I will be calling the game simply as a broadcaster. Nonetheless, I want my Huskers to win more than anything, and this should be a very fun game to watch. Both teams have a lot of talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams know they should each probably have a better record as well, and they're ready to prove it. Nebraska is searching for it's first win under the Scott Frost regime, and looking to avoid one of the worst starts in program history. The Boilermakers are trying to battle their way back into bowl contention and in the BIG 10 West. Purdue won it's first game of the season last week, knocking off #23 Boston College 30-17. They're lead by a dynamic offense glittered with speed. Freshman stud, Rondale Moore, leads the conference in receiving with 372 yards and 4 TDs. He also has a score on the ground to go along with 132 yards on just 6 carries. I've had nightmares all week of Purdue running the Jet Sweep with Moore and him taking the ball around the edge of our defense for 70+ yard touchdowns. The Blackshirts will need to know where #4 is on the field at all times. They will also need to get some pressure on Purdue QB David Blough. He's taken over as the true starter and has thrown for 868 yards, 6 TDs and just 1 pick... in the past 2 games alone! Nebraska's secondary could have a long game ahead of them. However, there's another side to the ball for the Huskers, and it looks like Adrian will start once again. Nebraska will look to establish a rushing attack in order to take some of the pressure off of Martinez, but I expect Stanley Morgan Jr., JD Spielman and all of the Huskers' wideouts to be used more starting this week. It's obvious Scott Frost and his staff want to get the ball to the edge, so look for a lot of quick passes and rolls to the sideline. I think Nebraska will be fired up this week and finally get the win we've all been looking for. Nebraska 33, Purdue 31. GO BIG RED!
Now for some Quick Hit Predictions on other interesting games this week:
#14 Michigan at Northwestern- The Wolverines are coming off a major win and the Wildcats' best offensive weapon just retired from football, this is easy right? Not so fast my friend! Northwestern is always an unpredictable team and Michigan won't get by quite as easy as last week. They'll win, but it'll be slightly more challenging. Wolverines 34, Wildcats 21.
Boise State at Wyoming- The Broncos have had to sit on their beat down from Oklahoma State for a week now, and Mountain Division Rival Wyoming will feel the full force of that anger. This is always a big game for the Division, but Boise should do well in Laramie. Broncos 47, Cowboys 20.
Iowa State at TCU- The Frogs have fallen off the past couple weeks, losing back to back games against Ohio State and Texas. Iowa State isn't the pushover they once were and this will be a fight to get the win. Close game, but TCU gets back on track with a 35-23 win.
Ole Miss at #5 LSU- Some people are still questioning the Bayou Bengals, and I'm one of them. Their schedule will get a lot worse before it gets better this season (Georgia, Miss. State and Bama in a 4 week span), but a battle for the Golden Boot is never a game you want to overlook. The Tigers are strong against the run, giving up just 91.3 yards per game, but their pass defense isn't quite as good. Ole Miss averages 347.5 yards through the air per game and will be licking their chops to take on the young Tiger secondary that give up 244 yards per game on average in the air. I need some proof out of LSU in this game, so I'll trust them and see where it leads. Upset potential at it's finest, but the Tigers pull out the win 28-17.
Thank you for reading all of my gameday predictions and be sure to tune into 90.3 KRNU with the link above if you want to hear me call the Huskers' game against Purdue. Have a fantastic football Saturday and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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