Conference Championship Week is upon is and we've got some key games that could determine who's in and who's out of the College Football Playoffs! Teams like Ohio State and Oklahoma will be looking to make a statement and possibly jump into the top 4, while teams like Texas, Washington and Northwestern are fighting for a spot in the New York Six Bowls. This post will have my predictions for all the big games this weekend, so sit back, read on and enjoy some football!
Rivalry Week Prediction Results: 12-6
Overall Prediction Results: 98-73
Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo (MAC Championship)
The Buffalo Bulls have won their first East Division title since 2008, and have their school's first ever 10-win season. They're looking to claim the MAC Championship away from the Huskies of Northern Illinois, who are making their 7th championship appearance in the last 9 years. NIU is a MAC blue-blood, often knocking off Power 5 teams during non-conference play. They've struggled a bit this year, finishing with a 7-5 record and an offense that ranks 125th in the nation. The Huskies average just 19.9 points per game and could have a difficult time slowing down Buffalo's pass rush, as they have 30 recorded sacks on the year. Their defense is solid, giving up just 20.9 points per game, but the Bulls have dropped 40+ 5 times this year, and average 35 per game. Star QB Tyree Jackson has played very well this season, throwing for 2,605 yards with a 25:11 TD to INT ratio and another 7 TDs on the ground. I expect him to have a big game, especially because NIU gives up 237 passing yards per game, and the Bulls should walk out with the trophy. Never count out the Huskies, experience pays dividends, but I like Buffalo as the 2018 MAC Champions.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian State (Sun Belt Conference Championship)
Short and sweet on this game as the Ragin' Cajuns travel to App State to take on the Mountaineers in the inaugural Sun Belt Championship. The Mountaineers edged out Troy last week to claim the East division title, and will likely have no issues beating Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns really struggle on defense, ranking 104th in the nation and giving up nearly 450 yard per game on average. The Mountaineers have a strong offense, scoring 37.3 points per game. Their defense however, that's the difference maker. Appalachian State gives up just 15.4 points per game and just over 275 yards per game on average. They rank 4th in total defense in the nation, so Louisiana-Lafayette will likely struggle to move the ball in this one. Mountaineers win the Sun Belt Championship 40-17.
Stanford at Cal
While not a conference championship game, this is always a great rivalry. Their game was moved due to the air quality last week from all of the forest fires. Stanford has fallen off the map this season, falling to 7-4 after starting 4-0. The Trees struggled to run the ball this year, with Bryce Love battling injuries, making them somewhat one-dimensional. Their air attack was strong, with K.J. Costello throwing for 3,198 yards, 28 TDs and just 11 picks, but the defense was a big issue for this squad. The Cardinal rank 86th in total defense, their worse ranking since 2009. Cal on the other hand has been a tough opponent for everyone this season. The 7-4 Bears have a tough defense that gives up just 21 points per game and an offense lead by Senior Running Back, Patrick Laird. Laird has over 1,000 yards of total offense and 9 TDs on the season, which may not sound like much, but this kid makes the big plays when needed. He's called upon on key third downs and always seems to get the mark. Cal's defense could struggle with Arcega-Whiteside and Stanford's air attack, but I like the Golden Bears at home. They were my "sneaky team" pick in the Pac-12 this season, and they improve to 8 wins with a 26-21 victory over Stanford this weekend.
Memphis at #8 UCF (American Conference Championship)
A rematch of last year's thriller is set to take place in Orlando on Saturday, but there may be fewer fireworks than last year's 62-55 double OT game. The Knights are riding a national-best 23 game win streak, but will be without star QB McKenzie Milton as they push for number 24. The Hawaii-native suffered a gruesome knee injury in their win over USF last week, and was taken off the field on a stretcher and immediately to a hospital. Milton is the spark of this team, so they will need to rely heavily on their ground game to shoulder the load. Luckily for the Knights, they have a stable of backs to carry the ball. Greg McCrae is averaging 9 yards per carry and has 8 TDs on the ground this season. The Tigers' defense gives up an average of 154 on the ground per game, so I'll be watching that stat closely. As for Memphis, Junior RB Darrell Henderson ranks 2nd in the nation with 1,699 yards and 19 TDs, UCF will need to shut him down in order to win. Offensively, these teams are evenly matched yet again. Both average around 530 yards of offense per game and 43 points per game. The defenses will be tested in this game, but winning the turnover battle is crucial in this one. The Knights are +16 on the season while the Tigers are just +2. Even without McKenzie Milton, I give the edge to UCF. A lot of people will say the streak stops with Milton, but this team has talent across the board. Knights win their second straight American Conference Championship with a 38-24 victory over the Tigers.
#25 Fresno State at #22 Boise State (Mountain West Conference Championship)
For the second straight year, Fresno State must travel to their rival Boise State and fight for the Mountain West Conference Championship on the Blue Turf. The Bulldogs lost once already on the Smurf Turf this year, falling to the Broncos by 7 in early November. This game will feature two fabulous Quarterbacks who love to air it out. Marcus McMaryion (FS) and Brett Rypien (BS) have both played phenomenally this season, throwing for 3,283 yards and 3,580 yards respectively. McMaryion has a 24:3 TD to INT ratio while Rypien has 29:7. They're both Seniors and would love nothing more than to finish off their careers by beating their rival for the Conference title. Aside from the gunslingers, each team has an extra weapon of their own, for the Broncos, his name is Alexander Mattison. The Junior Running Back has 1,215 yards to go along with 16 TDs on the season. He averages nearly 5 yards per carry and drives this Boise State offense, helping them rank 12th in the nation for time of possession. For the Bulldogs, their extra weapon is a lock-down defense. Fresno State ranks 17th in total defense, giving up just 13.5 points and 321 yards per game on average. They will need to play their best game of the season and stay off the field if they want to win. Now this game presents a dilemma for me, because it challenge two of my most important rules in College Football. 1. You never want to play a team twice, and 2. You should always pick Boise State at home. Last year, Fresno State won the first meeting (in Fresno) but lost the Conference Championship just a week later up in Boise. This year the Bulldogs have already lost on the Blue field, but now travel back again with a vengeance. This is a tough prediction and will likely be an even tougher game, but I'll go with the Broncos. Boise State is just too good on that field and besides, depending on what uniform they're wearing, you probably won't be able to even see them! Boise State wins yet another Mountain West Crown with a 23-20 victory over Fresno State.
#17 Utah vs. #11 Washington (Pac-12 Conference Championship)
The Pac-12 Championship is set to take place in Levi's Stadium as the Utes take on the Huskies. These teams met early in the season, resulting in a 21-7 Washington victory. I would expect a lot of defense in this game, as Utah ranks 15th and Washington ranks 13th in total defense. Both squads give up less than 20 points per game and love to shut down the run. That's going to be the key stat in this game, as both teams love to run the ball. Utah's star Running Back, Zack Moss is done for the year with an injury, so Junior Armand Shyne has taken over, rushing for 276 yards and 3 TDs over the last three weeks. The Huskies have one of the best (and underrated) backs in the nation with Myles Gaskin. I've been watching this kid tear up opposing defenses for the last four years, and I know he's going to be a gem in the NFL draft this spring. Gaskin has over 5,100 career yards and 55 TDs. Ten of those scores came this season as he posted his 4th straight 1,000+ yard season and is averaging 5.1 yards a pop. Utah only gives up 100 yards on the ground per game, but Gaskin will look to break that mark. Just in the month of November, he's rushed for 453 yards and 5 TDs. I think that trend continues tonight and Washington wins the Pac-12 Championship 27-14 over the Utes.
#2 Clemson vs. Pitt (ACC Conference Championship)
There's not much to say about this game, Clemson will continue to dominate the ACC for the foreseeable future. Pitt is a tough team, but the Tigers are just too strong. They have 4 potential 1st round picks on their defensive line, a dark horse Heisman-caliber player at Running Back and one stud of a Freshman Quarterback. They are one of the most complete teams in all of college football and probably the only team capable of beating Alabama. Travis Etienne is going to run all over, around and through Pitt's defense, especially since they rank 80th in rush defense. Trevor Lawrence will torch their lowly secondary for about 300 yards and their defensive line will finish this game with more sacks than a paper bag factory. Clemson with a BIG statement win to claim a 5th straight ACC Championship. Tigers 44, Pitt 17.
#14 Texas vs. #5 Oklahoma (Big XII Conference Championship)
A rematch of the Red River Rivalry (I'm still not going to say "Showdown") thriller from early October. Texas walked away with a 48-45 victory and the Horns are looking to play spoiler yet again to the Sooners and their Playoff dreams. Texas is also fighting for a New Year's Six Bowl game, so this (somewhat unnecessary) conference championship game has major implications all around. The Longhorns have been tough all season, and will definitely be a formidable opponent in 2019. Sam Ehlinger has shined in his Sophomore year, throwing for 2,774 yards, 23 TDs and just 4 picks. He's also added another 11 scores on the ground and is the biggest threat to OU's success. Ehilnger is the spark of this Texas offense, but the Wideouts are the backbone. Collin Johnson, Devin Duvernay and Lil'Jordan Humphrey have been phenomenal this season, accounting for 18 TDs combined. They're all Juniors, so Texas will likely have the BEST receiving corps in the nation next season. However, none of this really matters for this game because of two things: 1. They beat OU already this season, and one of my primary rules in CFB is that you never want to play a team twice, and 2. A young man by the name of Kyler Murray. In my humble opinion, Murray is hands-down the best athlete and player in the nation, which is why HE should win the Heisman that they've already handed to Tua. That argument can be saved for another day, but in the first match-up with Texas, Murray accounted for 396 yards and 5 TDs... and that was only his 5th game as a starter. He's going to be absolutely BONKERS in this game and Oklahoma will get revenge (and the Big XII Crown) with a 57-44 win over Texas. Boomer Sooner (I still hate both teams😁).
#21 Northwestern vs. #6 Ohio State (BIG 10 Conference Championship)
The Wildcats have been waiting for a few weeks, but now they're ready to square off against East Division Champ, Ohio State. The Buckeyes throttled Michigan last week, dropping 62 on the nation's top defense last week. They look like the Ohio State of old, dominating both sides of the ball and seemingly scoring at will. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins is doing a damn good job sticking in the Heisman race, as he's thrown for over 4,000 yards and posted a 42:7 TD to INT ratio during the regular season. He's the key to their offense because if he's having an off day, they don't have much to lean on. J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber have stepped up the ground attack in recent weeks (thanks Nebraska 😒), but this offense still lives with the air attack. This bodes well, as the Wildcat's secondary is one of the weaker parts of their team, giving up nearly 240 yards per game through the air. Northwestern still ranks 32nd in total defense, 30 spots ahead of the Buckeyes, and Pat Fisher knows how to get his team to step up in big moments. Senior QB Clayton Thorson hasn't had the best season, but is never someone you want to leave on the field for very long. He'll eventually get his, and star wideout Flynn Nagel will help with that. They Buckeyes secondary is also fairly weak, and Thorson is often very smart with this throws. While I'd love to see a Wildcat upset, and they're a team you should never sleep on, I'm not quite sure they'll have it in this one. Freshman Running Back Isaiah Bowser will need a big performance to help lift the Purple Cats up, but I think Urban Meyer's coaching in the big games will be the difference maker. Ohio State wins the BIG 10 38-23.
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Georgia (SEC Conference Championship)
A playoff semi-final is set to take place early as the Tide and the Dawgs square off in Atlanta. Georgia won last year, knocking off Auburn, but fell to Bama in the CFP Championship. They've been waiting for this moment all year to get revenge. Jake Fromm has been stellar, throwing for more than 2,200 yards with a 24:5 TD to INT ratio. The two-headed rushing monster of D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield have combined for 1,858 yards on the ground, 16 TDs and are both averaging just under 7 yards per carry. They'll be running into the brick wall named Bama's defense, giving up just 282 total yards and 13.8 points per game on average. The Tide's defense has gotten better as the year progressed, but they haven't faced an offense quite like Georgia's. The Bulldogs are so incredibly balance, they could walk a tightrope over the Grand Canyon. On the other side, you have the Heisman winner (basically engraved his name already) with Tua Tagovailoa, going against a rugged Georgia defense. Don't get me wrong, Tua is amazing, and he's going to have a big game against Georgia, just as Fromm and crew will have a big day against Bama. I honestly think the offenses of each team will shine more than the defenses, creating a bit of a shootout. Pressure will be key in this game, otherwise both secondaries are going to get torched (still probably will). This is a tough pick because Bama is absolutely amazing, but I picked Georgia to win the SEC and knock Bama out of the Playoffs before the season. So, I could either stick by my pre-season prediction or jump ship and hop on the Bama train (statistically, never a bad decision). However, I am a man of my word and I say Georgia wins the SEC Championship with revenge! I do think Bama will stay in the Playoffs, and I would not be upset seeing a Tigers vs. the Tide round 4. The DAWGS with a shocker down in the ATL with a 30-28 victory over Bama. You heard it here first!
Thank you all for reading my Conference Championship Predictions and enjoy your weekend of football! Big Playoff moves could be in store this weekend, GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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