Happy Thanksgiving Football Friends! Welcome to Rivalry Week. As you all know by now, this is my favorite football weekend of the year, and there is a great slate of rivalry games to pick on this year. This post has all of my predictions for the big games and what implications they have, enjoy!
Week 13 Prediction Results: 12-2
Overall Prediction Results: 109-51
Louisville at Kentucky
An in-state rivalry is always good for bragging rights, and I know both of these teams would love to take those home. The Cardinals travel to Lexington to take on the Wildcats as they look to move to 8 wins on the season. Everyone (including myself) did not have high hopes for Louisville this year, believing them to be one of the worst teams, not only in the ACC, but the nation as well. Their defense hasn't been the most impressive, but their offense ranks 28th in the nation, averaging over 450 yards and 34.5 points per game. Kentucky on the other hand has struggled this season after losing their star RB (Benny Snell) and pass rusher (Josh Allen) to the NFL. The defense is still tough though, giving up just under 19 points per game. This is a difficult game to predict, but I like Louisville to win because of their ground game with Javian Hawkins. Cardinals win it 27-23.
#19 Cincinnati at #18 Memphis
This is going to be a fun game. First off, this could easily be a preview of the American Conference Championship game, because if Memphis wins, they will square off with the Bearcats again in just another week. However, if Cincy pulls off the victory, they will face Navy in the conference championship. Aside from the American Conference trophy, New Year's Six Bowl Game implications are on the line as well. Memphis and Cincy both sit in front of #20 Boise State in the rankings, as all three fight for the opportunity to go to a New Year's Six bowl as the G5 representative. I would expect a good amount of points in this game, especially with Memphis. The Tigers average over 42 points per game, ranking 10th in total offense and have weapons all over the field. Junior QB Brady White is my different maker as he's thrown for over 3,000 yards with 30 TDs and just 7 picks. He's completing 67% of his passes this year and few defenses have found an answer for him. Defense is the name of the game for Cincy though, holding teams under 20 points per game on the season. Sophomore QB Desmond Ridder is talented as well, but I like Memphis at home. This will be a fun rematch in a week if the Tigers do win! Memphis 37, Cincy 26.
#23 Iowa State at Kansas State
The Cyclones and the Wildcats square off in Manhattan in one of the more underrated games of the weekend. Both teams are solid performers in the Big XII, but for ISU, they were so close to more. All four of their losses have been by 7 points or fewer, so don't overlook Matt Campbell's squad. Brock Purdy has had a tremendous season at QB, throwing for nearly 3,600 yards, 26 TDs and 9 picks so far, and K-State doesn't defend the best against the pass. However, the Wildcats do run the ball well, and they will be looking to control the line of scrimmage, ground game and clock in this one. Keeping opposing QBs on the sidelines is one of the best ways to win, and only Wisconsin and Utah do it better than the 2019 Wildcats. Manhattan, KS is always a dangerous place to play, and everything is pointing toward K-State winning this game. I think Iowa State is more talented and has the better coach though. Cyclones win a tough on the road 30-28.
#24 Virginia Tech at Virginia (Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)
Our annual Commonwealth Cup game has a bit more on the line this season as the Hokies travel to take on in-state rival Virginia. The Cavaliers are looking to claim the ACC Coastal division title, making it seven straight years of a new division winner. Unfortunately, they have to beat the Hokies to make that happen, and that's not something they've done since 2003. Virginia Tech has dominated this series, and will look to do the same as they carry the momentum of a three game win streak (two of which were shutouts) into the weekend. Virginia will have to slow down the Hokies new star QB, Sophomore Hendon Hooker. He's thrown for 1,134 yards and 10 TDs this season since jumping into the starting spot. The Cavaliers have a dual-threat QB to worry about as well though, Mr. Bryce Perkins. He's accounted for more than 3,000 total yards and 24 TDs this season, so the Hokies defense will be tested again. This is truly a battle of the QBs, and I would love to see Virginia win and go to the ACC title game. However, VT has the momentum and they just don't lose to the Cavaliers. Hokies 28, Cavaliers 20.
#1 Ohio State at #13 Michigan
The game everyone in the BIG 10 waits for, the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. Michigan has all the momentum after falling short of (most people's, not mine) expectations earlier this season. Their run game has developed and Shea Patterson has been playing well in recent weeks. Unfortunately, he has to play against a truly dominant defense this weekend, and I fully expect Heisman hopeful Chase Young to demolish the Michigan offensive line. Young is the best player in College Football and he'll prove that yet again this weekend. On offense, Ohio State will face another tough defense, and will likely have some bumps here and there as they did against Penn State. Michigan's defense will make some plays, but they won't be able to hold down Justin Fields, JK Dobbins and every other potential All-American on the Buckeye offense. I said it before and I'll say it again, Jim Harbaugh cannot beat Ohio State. Buckeyes roll 38-21.
Texas A&M at #2 LSU
This game went 7 Overtimes last year and they made a rule because of it. The Aggies travel to Death Valley as they complete their insanely difficult schedule against the #2 Tigers. Jimbo Fisher and A&M are always dangerous, they put up a good fight against the Bulldogs on the road last week, but this season has been brutal. They've faced FIVE top ten teams this season (including LSU) and have hung around. Star QB Kellen Mond hasn't been fabulous this season, but is always a danger for opposing defenses. I expect him to have a big night against the lackluster Tiger defense. However, the QB on the other side is a front runner for the Heisman Trophy and his name is Joe Burrow. Burrow has been incredible this season, leading the LSU offense to an average of 48.5 points and more than 560 yards per game. The Aggies have a tough defense, but there's just too much to handle here. LSU has two 1,000+ wideouts who've combined for 27 TDs and a running back with another 1,100+ and 5 TDs on the ground. Too much fire power to handle from LSU and the Tigers win 40-30.
#5 Alabama at #15 Auburn (The Iron Bowl)
Everyone is saying Bama's defense is bad this year, but there's no better test for that than your arch rival. The Tide Roll into Jordan-Hare Stadium looking to keep their Playoffs hopes alive against the Tigers. Sophomore QB Mac Jones has taken over for the injured Tua Tagovailoa, and he'll have to navigate his way through the formidable Auburn defense. The Tigers rank 14th in total defense, giving up just 16.2 points per game and just over 300 yards. They love to shut down the run and held LSU to 23 points, their lowest total of the season. Luckily for Jones, he has arguably the best offensive weapon set in the nation with All-American caliber receivers and an offensive line that's given up just 11 sacks this season. Auburn is lead on offense by Freshman QB Bo Nix, and he's not one to quit. He led the opening week comeback win against Oregon, battle Joe Burrow and LSU and nearly led the Tigers back against Georgia just a couple weeks ago. He'll test the Bama defense early and often with his dual-threat ability, and don't over look the Auburn receivers. They catch the ball very well by creating lots of separation from defenders and are not easy to bring down. I expect another slug fest in this year's Iron Bowl, but it's hard to pick against Alabama. Roll Tide as they win this one 27-21.
#7 Oklahoma at #21 Oklahoma State (BEDLAM)
It's BEDLAM folks! The Sooners travel to Stillwater to take on the in-state rival Pokes. Oklahoma has already solidified their spot in the Big XII Title game against the Baylor Bears, but no slip-ups are allowed if they want to fight back into the Playoff conversations. Oklahoma State has had a solid season under the radar, especially with the nation's leading rusher in Sophomore Chuba Hubbard. It's beyond me how this man is not in the Heisman conversation with 1,832 yards and 20 TDs thus far on the ground, but that's just the nature of the award, don't focus on great players if they don't have a chance to win it all. Anyways, Hubbard should fair well against the Sooners defense as they're giving up nearly 150 yards per game on the ground in November. Unfortunately for the Pokes, starting QB Spencer Sanders will not be available, and Hubbard alone won't be able to keep up with the Sooner offense. I fully expect Jalen Hurts and CeeDee Lamb to torch the Poke's defense repeatedly. This could be a bit of a shootout, but OU is too much to handle. Sooners win Bedlam 41-28.
#12 Wisconsin at #8 Minnesota (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Ax)
Another important BIG 10 Rivalry takes place this weekend, but in the West Division. Yes, the Husker game is quite important, but unfortunately it does not have BIG 10 Title and Playoff implications like the game in Minneapolis does. The Gophers host the Badgers in a game that will decide who goes to Indy. Wisconsin is going to stick to the script, grind it out with Jonathan Taylor. The Heisman hopeful running back has nearly 1,700 yards on the season with 18 TDs and an impressive 6.5 yard per carry average. He'll be up against a Gopher defense that has been tougher than it looks this season, giving up just 21 points and 300 yards per game on average. Wisconsin's defense looked incredible early in the season, but have struggled as of late, allowing a total of 129 points in their last 5 games compared to just 29 in their first six. The Badgers will have to deal with a Gopher offense that is loaded with talent. QB Tanner Morgan has two NFL-destined wideouts to throw to on the outside with Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson, who both have more than 1,000 yards and 10 TDs each. On the ground Minnesota is led by Rodney Smith, but Mohamed Ibraham and Shannon Brooks are great compliments. This just feels like a special Minnesota team and I think PJ Fleck really has them playing well. The Gophers won the Ax for the first time since 2003 last year, and I think they'll do it again. I hope it snows so it can be just authentically BIG 10. Gophers are headed to the BIG 10 Championship after beating Wisconsin 23-20.
#17 Iowa at Nebraska (The Heroes Game)
The Huskers will look to change the entire mood of 2019 with a win against the Hawkeyes on Black Friday in Lincoln. Nebraska's 2019 has not gone as advertised, with this team looking worse than the 2018 unit at times. However, they have a chance to get to a bowl game with a victory over Iowa, which would be a major step for Scott Frost and his program. It won't be easy though, Iowa has a veteran coach, veteran QB and the 13th best defense in the nation. Nebraska's offense has not been stellar by any means this season, but racked up over 500 yards against Wisconsin's top ten defense and put up 54 points on the Terps last week, the confidence is growing. Iowa loves to shut down the run though, forcing teams into passing situations. That's when A.J. Epenesa lets loose. The Junior defensive end has 7 sacks on the season and will look to keep Adrian Martinez uncomfortable. The Huskers will look to do the same with Nate Stanley, by bringing extra pressure from linebackers and safeties. They will have to watch wideout Ihmir Smith-Marsette, who is the primary deep threat for the Hawkeyes, but the offense is the weak point for Iowa. In order to win this game, Adrian Martinez will have to play the best he has all year. The run game is going to be tough to establish, so the downfield throws need to be accurate. The weather won't be favorable, but this is going to be a tight game. Nebraska is motivated and there's a lot on the line. Frost will need to coach his best game of the year as well, because the Hawkeyes don't make many mistakes. Nebraska has a big opportunity here, and I think they take it. Huskers win it and make me happy with a 20-17 victory. GO BIG RED!
Now for some quick hit predictions on other interesting games:
Washington State at Washington (The Apple Cup)- This game has lost it's luster a bit this year with both teams coming in at 6-5, but it's still a fun rivalry out in the Pacific Northwest. Wazzu has the nation's best passing attack with Anthony Gordon, and the Huskies defense is not what it once was. However, the Cougars often times struggle in this game, and I expect Jacob Eason to step up big for this one. Huskies win it 38-28.
Indiana at Purdue (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)- The Hoosiers and Boilermakers play for the oldest trophy in College Football as they square off in West Lafayette. It's always a tough place to win in November, and Purdue has kicked it up during the last half of the season. I like Indiana though, Peyton Ramsey has the air attack rolling and Purdue gives up around 235 yards per game through the air. Hoosiers 27, Boilermakers 21.
Oregon State at #14 Oregon (The Civil War)- The Ducks fell to the Sun Devils last week, almost certainly knocking them out of the Playoffs. Now they must come home to end their season in the annual in-state battle withe the Beavers, the Civil War. The Beavers are on the rise and are looking for a bowl game opportunity if they can get by the Ducks. This game could be tighter than expected, but Oregon still has enough talent to win this. Watch out for the Beavers next year though, this is a fairly young team. Ducks 37, Beavers 23.
#16 Notre Dame at Stanford- It has been a very forgettable year for David Shaw and the Cardinal, but upsetting Notre Dame would make it a bit sweeter. Unfortunately Ian Book will have a different game plan in mind, and I think he'll have a big night. Irish flex in this one 34-14.
North Carolina at NC State- The Heels can go Bowling in Mac Brown's first year back if they beat their in-state rival, and I think Sam Howell will get them there. The Freshman stud has nearly 3,000 yards passing with 32 TDs and just 6 picks. The Heels need work on defense next season, but they'll be dangerous with Howell under center. North Carolina wins 35-21.
Texas Tech at Texas- The Longhorns fell off this year and fell hard, especially after being "back". Regardless, Tom Herman's team can still build some momentum for Ehlinger's senior season with a victory against the Red Raiders and I think they'll do it. Too much offense from Texas and too many injuries for Tech. Hook 'Em for 40-24.
Thank you for reading all of my Rivalry Week Predictions and don't forget to listen to our new podcast episode on The 2nd String with a deeper dive for the predictions. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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