Welcome to Week 13 football fans! It's late November and there's nothing else to do on Saturdays except eat good food and watch football. There's a great slate of games this weekend and some big playoff implications waiting to happen. This post has all of my predictions, enjoy!
Week 12 Prediction Results: 11-1
Overall Prediction Results: 97-49
Texas A&M at #4 Georgia
The Bulldogs have clinched the SEC East division for the third year in a row, but now have to finish off their schedule without any slips up in order to stay in the hunt for the CFB Playoffs. Their first test is a home stand against the ever dangerous Aggies of A&M. Kellen Mond and the Aggie offense are averaging 34 points per game and over 430 yards. Mond is always a headache for opposing defense with his dual threat ability, and establishing a ground attack will be important in the forecast of rainy weather. Both teams are tough against the run on defense, but the Bulldogs give up just an average of 75 yards on the ground to opponents, ranking 3rd in the nation. This one could be closer than the experts think, but I like Georgia to finish strong. Bulldogs win 26-17.
Illinois at #17 Iowa
The Fightin' Illini are bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. They're looking for their fifth straight win, but have to survive Kinnick Stadium in November to make it happen. The Illini are statistically out matched on the defensive front against Iowa, which is where I expect most of the issues to arise from. Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa is one of the best pass rushers in the nation, and will look to add to his 7 sack total against the Illini. I expect Iowa to hold the Illinois offense from moving the ball too much, but watch out for Senior RB Reggie Corbin. The Illini can be very deadly once he gets rolling, averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season. On the other side, Iowa will need to get wideout Ihmir Smith-Marsette going quickly to take advantage of a vulnerable Illinois secondary. The Hawkeyes have struggled on offense this season, so this could be a good chance to fire it up for the end of the year. Iowa wins at home 30-14.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
An important game in deciding who will lose to Clemson in the ACC championship takes place in Blacksburg, VA this week as the Panthers take on the Hokies. Both teams are still in the hunt for the Coastal Division title, but trail behind Virginia. The Panthers lost to UVA to start the season, so they would need a victory and then help next week from the Hokies in the Commonwealth Cup. The Hokies just need to win the next two weeks and they're in. Again, the Coastal race is simply to see who will lose to Clemson this year, but nonetheless. Pitt really struggles on offense, and the Hokies have won 4 of their last 5, nearly knocking off Notre Dame on the road as well. Their defense has improved tremendously over recent weeks, and they'll look to bring their pass rush (VT ranks 12th in sacks with 33 this season) into the face of Pitt QB Kenny Picket. The Panthers are quite good on the defensive side of the ball too, ranking 1st in sacks with 45 and the 10th best defense in the nation. Both teams have been playing really well lately, which makes this tough to predict. The Hokies are always tough to beat at home though, and their new QB, Hendon Hooker has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs in his 5 starts. Virginia Tech 23, Pitt 21.
#25 SMU at Navy
Both the Mustangs and Midshipmen have a shot at winning the American West Division, but they would both need a win here and a loss from Memphis to either South Florida or Cincy next week. This is a very realistic scenario, especially with how dominant Cincy has been in the conference, but first thing is first, you have to win the game you play. SMU has been somewhat forgotten after their shootout loss to the Tigers a couple of weeks ago, but the Mustangs still average 45 points and well over 500 yards on offense per game. The Midshipmen aren't far behind with 38 points and nearly 450 yards, but they're all about the ground attack. The triple-option attack has them at 7-2 this season. Unfortunately for them, their most recent loss came from a 5 TD air raid from Ian Book and Notre Dame, and SMU loves to air it out. The Mustangs are looking to get back into the New Year's Six hunt, and if they get out to a hot start, it will be tough for Navy to keep pace. The Midshipmen will look to slow the game down and control the clock, but I like SMU in this one. Very important game in the American Conference, and should be a good one. SMU 37, Navy 28.
#13 Michigan at Indiana
The Wolverines have one last hurdle to get past before their annual rivalry game against the Buckeyes next week. This is not a hurdle to overlook though. Indiana is not the easy BIG 10 win they've been in previous seasons. The Hoosiers have a deadly passing attack led by QB Peyton Ramsey and WR Whop Philyor. Ramsey has thrown for nearly 1,700 yards with 10 TDs and just 3 picks after stepping in for the injured Michael Penix Jr. Michigan's defense is no slouch though, ranking 4th against the pass and 5th overall. The Wolverines have been on a tear their last few games, giving up no more than 14 points in their last three contests and scoring an average of 42.3 points. The offense has come alive behind a rejuvenated rushing attack and better performance from QB Shea Patterson. Even with Ohio State looming in the distance, I think Michigan will take care of business in this one. Indiana will perform well, but they still have work to do before an upset like this happens. Wolverines 34, Hoosiers 21.
Texas at #14 Baylor
Both Baylor and OU can punch their Big XII Championship tickets with wins this weekend, and the Bears have to deal with the Longhorns to make it happen. Their second half collapse against the Sooners last week gives Texas something to shoot for, but the boys in burnt orange have struggled this season, even with so much talent on offense. They've failed to break 30 points in 4 of their last 5 contests and have had multiple games come down to a last second field goal. The Bear's came out on fire against Oklahoma, but struggled to get their offense moving in the second half. Charlie Brewer will be looking deep for Denzel Mims against Texas, as they give up over 300 yards per game through the air on defense. However, a steady ground attack will be needed to balance out the game. On defense, Baylor will have to deal with Sam Ehlinger and the Texas weapons. This one could turn into more of a shootout than most people expect. Baylor wins a big one at home 41-35.
#8 Penn State at #2 Ohio State
The Buckeyes are looking to wrap up the BIG 10 East division as they host the Nittany Lions for Senior day. The Nittany Lions are looking for the upset, and to jump back into the playoff conversations. Sean Clifford is a handful for any defense, especially when he throws to KJ Hamler. Hamler torched the Buckeyes for 138 yards and a TD on just 4 catches last year, and is always a touchdown waiting to happen when the ball is in his hands. This is a new and improved defense for Ohio State however, and they've dominated everyone in their path, giving up just 9.8 points and 216 total yards per game. Penn State will struggle to move the ball in this game. On the other side, the Buckeyes have many players who are always a danger to break it loose, but none more deadly than QB Justin Fields. No one is even paying attention to this kid in the Heisman race, but he's accounted for more than 2,500 total yards (2,164 pass + 377 rush) with 41 total touchdowns. Fields has been unstoppable with the Buckeyes offense this season, and as I stated early on in the season, this team will steamroll anyone in their path right now. Ohio State wins another game in very impressive fashion by beating the Nittany Lions 35-10.
Nebraska at Maryland
I can see this game going two ways for the Huskers. The scenarios are broken down below:
1. Nebraska establishes the rushing attack (and sticks with it) like they did against Wisconsin and forces Maryland into the box while priming JD Spielman for a deep post or streak around the mid-2nd quarter to take momentum into half time. Then come out slow in the second half, needing to fight back for a fourth quarter victory capped off by Adrian Martinez rushing touchdown on a third and goal after two previous failed attempts.
2. Nebraska reverts back to a performance similar to the Ohio State and Minnesota games where Maryland is able to dominate in all facets (including at least one if not two special teams touch downs). The Blackshirts defense is moved up and down the field, helping the Terps look like we're back in weeks one and two. The offense sputters to just around 220 total yards with at least three turnovers and the Huskers fall by a disgusting 14 points or more.
This game is honestly a toss up in my mind. It depends heavily on which Husker team shows up and if they can limit the mistakes. I think this team has more than enough talent on hand to beat Maryland, and I'm taking the Huskers 30-27. Please don't let me sit through the second scenario.
Now for some quick hit predictions of other games around CFB:
UCLA at #23 USC- In the battle for LA the surging Trojans face off against a pesky UCLA team. The Bruins need to win out to become bowl eligible, but with Clay Helton possibly fighting for his job, I think the Trojans will come out hot. Kedon Slovis has played very well this season and he should have a big night against the 123rd ranked UCLA pass defense. USC 38, UCLA 21.
Cal at Stanford (Battle for the Ax)- Neither of these teams have been very productive this season, and both were plagued by injuries from the get-go. This is not an easy one to pick, but I'm going to go with an old rule of mine: It's tough to win at the Farm. Stanford 26, Cal 24.
Temple at #19 Cincinnati- The Bearcats are closing in on the G5 New Year's Six bid, but have a couple of difficult games to finish off their season with. The first of those games is a visit from the Temple Owls, which always post an impressive defense. They've been burned a few times though, and after a close call last week, Cincy will open the throttle on offense. Bearcats win 41-21.
#21 Oklahoma State at West Virginia- An easy trap game awaits the Cowboys as they head into Morgantown, but luckily, they have Chuba Hubbard. The Canadian native should probably be a bigger part of the Heisman conversation with his 1,726 rushing yards and 20 TDs, but nonetheless, he should help the Pokes take care of business. OSU 30, WVU 21.
Tennessee at Missouri- Not an important game by any means, but a battle for bowl eligibility between two 5-5 teams is always fun. The Vols have bounced back from their slow start, winning 4 of their last 5 games, while the Tigers have lost 4 straight. Kelly Bryant is always dangerous, but Jarrett Guarantano has been playing well and freshman backup Brian Maurer doesn't miss much of a step. Tennessee becomes bowl eligible with a 34-28 victory.
San Diego State at Hawai'i- The winner of this game clinches a spot in the Mountain West Championship game, and the Rainbow Warriors are ready to take it. They'll have to get by the number one rush defense in the nation. Luckily they rank 4th in the passing attack. Give me Hawai'i in a tough 30-28 victory!
Thank you all for reading my Week 13 predictions, and don't forget to listen to the latest episode of The 2nd String, my CFB podcast with Nate Muhlbach. We'll have another breakdown next week after we see how this weekend shakes out. Enjoy the games and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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