Howdy football fans! I hope everyone is doing well and still riding the high of the first Husker victory of the season! I had to let the win sink in for a few days before I dug in with my analysis, but now it's time to give my thoughts. This post will have my reflections and break down of the Huskers' win over Penn State as well as my thoughts on the other happenings throughout college football. Be sure to send any questions my way and enjoy!
I was wrong in my prediction and I couldn't be happier! The Huskers were able to hold on for a 30-23 victory over the Nittany Lions in their first game at Memorial Stadium in 2020. Luke McCaffrey got the nod as the Huskers made a change at QB and sparked the offense to 20 first half points complimented by a nice scoop and score from the Blackshirts to set the mark at 27-6 at halftime. The second half was more of what Husker fans were probably expecting in this one, a dumpster fire on offense and some big drives given up by the defense as Penn State mounted a comeback that looked all too familiar. However, thanks to two impressive goal-line stands by the Blackshirts, Nebraska came away with their first victory in nearly an entire calendar year. My full analysis of the game is broken down into my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below.
GOOD - The Luke-led Husker offense and the two goal-line stands. Starting with the offense, I cannot express my excitement when I saw Luke McCaffrey trot out to start the game. I give my sympathies to Adrian Martinez, and thank him for the incredible leadership he showed in his pre-game speech as well as his demeanor on the sidelines. However, it was a necessary switch in my opinion and I'm glad Coach Frost pulled the trigger. Luke had this offense humming in the first half, moving the ball with great tempo on the first three drives, scoring 17 points. The play calling wasn't anything too special, but it allowed Luke to move around and do what he does best, make plays outside of the pocket. It's clear there's not going to be a very deadly passing attack with this team any time soon, but McCaffrey was able to spread the ball fairly well. Wan'dale Robinson finally got some meaningful touches, and even though they weren't all drawn up very well (4 straight runs up the middle in the goal line was not smart), he made some plays with the ball in his hands. I would expect more touches as they move him and McCaffrey to the edges, stretching opposing defenses. Switching to the Blackshirts, I'll add in some extra props for their first half performance and two turnovers. They were playing like a team that wanted to win and it showed. After a brief collapse in the second half, they stood up when they were needed most, not once, but twice. I truly thought they were going to give up the score and this team would be right back to square one. A tip of the cap to the defense and the pressure they were able to get. We'll see if that can carry over into future games now that the official Blackshirt jerseys have been handed out.
EXPECTED - The traditional third quarter collapse and missing wide receivers. You can set your clocks to it if you want, but the Huskers' regular third quarter collapse is almost a given at this point. There are few games I can recall over the past few years where Nebraska has come out strong following half-time. This is a serious issue that has needed addressing for a while. Frost won't always have a 21 point lead to cushion him, and Penn State showed that 21 points might not even be enough most of the time. The other expected piece of this game was the missing talent at wideout. Yes, Zavier Betts showed off some impressive speed and Wan'dale was involved again, but what happened to Marcus Flemming or the legendary Omar Manning? Neither saw the field to my knowledge on Saturday, and Flemming even led the Huskers in receiving against Northwestern just over a week ago. I really don't understand what the rotation plan is with these guys, especially when you have Kade Warner dropping easy TDs in the endzone. I'm guessing there are some grade or team violation issues, but no matter what it's clear we're not going to involve some of are most talented players in the ways they probably should be.
BAD - Half-time adjustments and playcall confusion. This goes off of my third quarter collapse point, but Scott Frost has been arguably one of the worst second half coaches in college football since taking over at Nebraska. I'm not trying to dig on him, but statistically the Huskers have not scored much in the second half. Their highest national ranking was during the 2018 at 42nd with an average of 14.9 points per game in the second half. The Huskers ranked 60th in 2019 with 13.5 points on average and this season the Huskers have just 6 TOTAL second half points for an average of 2 and a national rank of 124th. For context of 2020, the only teams that rank worse in second half points this season are UMass & Cal with 0, and they've combined to play as many games as the Huskers, (0-2 and 0-1) respectively. Going a little farther, we can look at the percentage of how much Nebraska owns time of possession in the second half compared to their opponents. The Huskers haven't ranked higher than 91st (2019) nationally in this category under Scott Frost and are currently 110th in 2020 with only 44.04% of the TOP going to the Huskers, or just over 13 minutes. This is not a recipe for success, and it's hindered more by the conservative play-calling. There were bad snaps, confusion and bumps in the backfield, but most of the second half was played by conservative and lackadaisical play-calling from the sidelines. I don't recall seeing any jet-sweep motions in the second half and Luke was running more for safety rather than by design. I give some credit to Penn State for making adjustments, but when Nebraska takes off less than 1 minute from the clock following the first goal line stand by their defense (subsequently setting up the second one) then you need to question the adjustments on the Husker sidelines more. This is one of the biggest issues plaguing the team and that's on Scott Frost.
I'm excited to see more of a spark on offense, and the defense is playing very well. Illinois is probably the most win-able game left on the schedule, but the Illini have some playmakers on both sides of the ball. Nebraska needs to keep moving forward with Luke to get him used to the QB1 spot and really needs to open up the playbook. Get the ball to the edge and use their speed. Wan'dale should not be running up the gut more than a few times per game. Hopefully this marks the corner turn Frost mentioned. GO BIG RED!
Quick hit thoughts from the rest of CFB:
- Western Michigan won their game with a fabulous fake spike. There's nothing quite like #MACtion!
- Iowa rolled through the Gophers on Friday night, claiming the Pig (Floyd of Rosedale Trophy) for the 5th straight year.
- Cincy won't stop for anyone and proved it by running a fake punt in the fourth quarter while up by 32 points. Give the Bearcats a shot at the Playoffs!
- Notre Dame didn't have much of a hangover and handled the rival Golden Eagles 45-31 on the road.
- If you haven't watched Kyle Trask throw a football, you better tune into a Gators game soon. The new Hesiman contender had 5 TDs in the first half and 6 by the end of the day as they chomped the Razorbacks in Felipe Franks' return to the Swamp.
- Miami edged out Virginia Tech 25-24 proving once again that there is a VERY sizable gap between Clemson (and Notre Dame this year) and the rest of the ACC.
- Speaking of the ACC, there was quite the barn burner in Chaple Hill as the Tar Heels came back to beat Wake Forest 59-53. I've said it before and I'm sticking to it, Sam Howell is a baller.
- Oregon poured it on in the fourth quarter against the Coogs and are really trying to flex their way into a playoff spot.
- In the BIG 10, we've got some dominating performances, come back wins and some enticing match-ups coming ahead. We'll start with my dark horse Hoosiers who shut-out the Spartans 24-0, breaking all kinds of ceilings for their football program. They'll take on the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe on Saturday in a battle for top spot in the BIG 10 East.
- Purdue couldn't quit knock off the Wildcats who gave up their first points in the second half all season. Northwestern and Wisconsin sit atop the West.
- Speaking of the Badgers, they put up a lot of points in their first game back from quarantine, trashing Michigan 49-11. Graham Mertz wasn't as impressive as his opener, but the Wiscy defense looks to be for real yet again.
Thanks for reading my Week 11(ish) reflections and be sure to watch for my predictions post later this week! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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