Good morning football fans and welcome to week 12(ish) of the College Football season! For the second week in a row we'll have at least 15 games either postponed or cancelled (17 total) due to Coronavirus, but luckily will still have the Huskers and some interesting games with CFB Playoff implications. This post will have all of the big games on my slate to watch and a couple of sneaky ones you should keep your eyes on. Thanks for reading and enjoy!
Week 11(ish) Record: 10 - 3
Overall Record: 36-17
Appalachian State at #15 Coastal Carolina
The undefeated Chanticleers put their perfect record on the line against Sun Belt powerhouse, the Mountaineers of Appalachian State. The winner of this has an inside track to the conference title as both are undefeated in Sun Belt play. Both teams are surprisingly similar statistically as well. App State averages 32.1 points per game and gives up just 16.9 on average while Coastal Carolina averages 37.9 on offense and gives up just 16.3 on defense. The Chanticleers have a bit more balanced attack on offense, but both defenses are hard to move on. Games like this usually come down to which team will make fewer mistakes. Coastal Carolina ranks better in both turnover margin and penalties this year, so I'm sticking with the Chanticleers! Coastal Carolina stays unbeaten with an important win at home 31-28.
#7 Cincinnati at UCF
The Bearcats have been rolling through the competition this season, posting a 204 point differential this season. UCF is always difficult to lock down though, and they rank 1st in total offense in the nation yet again. Dillion Gabriel has been lighting up opposing secondaries for 2,774 yards, 23 TDs and just 2 picks so far this season. The Bearcats rank 19th in pass defense and 9th overall, so it will be strength on strength in this one. That's where star players step up, and I like Desmond Ridder to step up big in this game. He's the key component of this offense and is smart with the football. Combined with another strong defensive performance, I think Cincy makes a big statement for the Playoff Committee to consider. Bearcats beat the Knights 40-20.
Mississippi State at #13 Georgia
The UGA Bulldogs got an extra week to lick their wounds from the Florida loss after their game with Missouri last week was postponed due to Coivd-19. They're back in action today against Mike Leach and the weary Bulldogs from the other side of the conference who also had their game postponed against Auburn. There's a 25 point spread in this game, and if you're using my blog to place bets (good luck), then I would smash the under line on this one. Mississippi State is not playing well and Georgia is supposed to be one of the top teams in the conference, no better stage for an upset. Georgia lost their shot at the SEC Championship and ultimately the playoffs with the loss to Florida and MSU is looking to just get back on track and prove Leach wasn't a bad hire. The true kicker is the Georgia defense. They have been atrocious against the passing attack, and we all know how much the Pirate loves the Air Raid. If you're betting, definitely take the under, and just because I don't think Georgia is very good this year I'm going to take the upset. This one might be a stretch, but Mike Leach usually has one of these a year, why not between the hedges? The Bulldogs in Maroon beat the Bulldogs in Red 38-35.
Iowa at Penn State
The Nittany Lions have never been 0-5 in their entire program history and Iowa has lost 6 straight to Penn State and hasn't won in Happy Valley since 2004. The Hawkeyes have looked very impressive on the ground in their past two outings, rushing for 461 yards. Sophomore Tyler Goodson is the primary reason for this boost in the run game as Kirk Ferentz has gotten smart and started handing him the ball more rather than have Spencer Petras throw it. Penn State locked down the Husker rushing attack in the second half last Saturday, but Will Levis couldn't quite complete the comeback. He may have earned the starting job though, and with weapons like Dotson, Washington and Freiermuth, their offense won't be shut down completely. However, I like to give the nod to teams who can run the ball when it's going to be a close game, and that nod goes to Iowa. Goodson carries the Hawkeyes to a 23-20 victory.
Kansas State at #17 Iowa State
The Wildcats travel to Ames for a key game in the Big XII battle. The Cyclones sit atop the conference race with a 5-1 record in the Big XII with K-State right on their heels at 4-2. The Wildcats are looking for a key tie-breaker and have the team to make it happen. Their tire-fire offense is just the type that will peg opponents down to their level. Iowa State has had that issue at times this year, but I think QB Brock Purdy has his sights set on a Big XII Title this year, and few things are going to hold him back. Cyclones get a big game from under the radar RB Breece Hall and Purdy makes some clutch throws late to keep Iowa State in the hunt. Cyclones 34, Wildcats 24.
#10 Wisconsin at #19 Northwestern
The battle for the BIG 10 West has gone through Wisconsin or Northwestern in the last 4 seasons and it looks to be that way again. Both are unbeaten so far in 2020, so something has to give. I expect a rugged, defensive BIG 10 slug-fest. Both teams have tremendous strength on defense and will hit you in the mouth every single play. Running the ball won't be easy, so this is where the QBs have to make big plays when the time is right. Graham Mertz is the young stud while Peyton Ramsey has experience in this conference as a senior. The Wildcats have played in some tight games this year, making key plays to win. Wisconsin has yet to be tested (on the football field) in 2020 and I like the edge Northwestern has. This is a tough one to pick, but I think Graham Mertz will handle the pressure well. I can see both ways (and will be rooting for the Wildcats), but I'll say the Badgers take this one 27-24. I'm curious to see if Northwestern will run the table after this game and who would win the division if Northwestern is 7-1 and Wisconsin is 6-0. But for now, On Wisconsin.
#14 Oklahoma State at #18 Oklahoma (BEDLAM)
We've got BEDLAM down in the Big XII and this game has big implications on the Big XII Championship picture. The Cowboys have lost 5 straight to the Sooners but can almost guarantee themselves a spot in the Big XII championship game with a win today. Lincoln Riley and Spencer Rattler may have something to say about that though. Since losing early in the year to K-State and Iowa State, Oklahoma has been racking up points left and right. The Cowboys have the best defense in the conference, so it will be best on best in this game. I don't trust (or like) any one in the Big XII, but Oklahoma wins this game. The Cowboys don't have enough firepower for this one and the Big XII is too cannibalistic for their own good yet again. Sooners win BEDLAM over the Cowboys 38-28.
#9 Indiana at #3 Ohio State
The other ranked v. ranked match-up in the BIG 10 takes place in Columbus and features the Buckeyes against the Hoosiers of Indiana. Yes, the Hoosiers are in the top 10 and I could not be happier. I knew this team would be deadly this year, but Michael Penix Jr. is even more special to watch than I imagined. Tom Allen has this team ready to play week in and week out, especially on defense. They rank 18th in the nation in total defense and 2nd in turnover margin. Justin Fields and the Buckeye offense have not been tested much at all this season, so look for some hiccups in this one early on. If Indiana can create some havoc and get pressure on Fields early in the game, this one could be very interesting to watch. On offense for the Hoosiers, Michael Penix Jr. should keep you glued to your TVs if the score doesn't already. This man can ball and even though he's a dual threat, I think his passing ability is his best feature. He takes care of the football and is extremely accurate with his passes. Indiana has talented receivers on the edge with Whop Philyor and Ty Fryfogle, but then will hurt you over the middle with a shot downfield to 6'4 TE Peyton Hendershot, who has 3 TDs on the season thus far. Not many people are giving the Hoosiers a shot in this one, but trust me, this team is legit. The 20.5 point spread is definitely one I would go under on, and an upset could be on the horizon in Columbus. I'll be rooting for the Hoosiers alongside my Huskers, but I do think Ohio State edges this one out. Justin Fields has too many weapons and after a mistake or two early in the game I think he'll settle in and have a big day. Ohio State 34, Indiana 24. I would love to see a Northwestern v. Indiana BIG 10 Championship though!
Illinois at Nebraska
The Huskers are looking for back to back conference wins for the first time since 2016 as the Fighting Illini come to Memorial Stadium. Luke McCaffrey should (and hopefully will) make his second start for the Huskers and look to keep a steady pace for the offense. They'll be up against an underrated defense from Illinois, who loves to force turnovers. They had 3 picks on ex-Husker QB Noah Vedral last weekend and their veteran linebackers will look to cause havoc for Luke in the backfield early and often. Scott Frost needs to open up the playbook for this game, and the offense needs to be on the same page in order to have clean execution in the backfield. On the defensive side of the ball, the newly christened Blackshirts will have their hands full with the Illini rushing attack. Illinois racked up 338 yards on the ground last weekend, and nearly 200 of those came from the QB Isaiah Williams, who is expected to start against the Huskers. Tackling will be key in this game as the Illini have a lot of speed with RBs Chase Brown and Mike Epstein. They've been gashing opponents for 7.1 and 5.4 yards per carry respectively and Senior wideout Josh Imatorbhebhe will cause headaches for the secondary. I think Nebraska has their heads right coming into this game, but it won't be as big of a win as the 16 point spread is predicting. Huskers stand tall in a tight one, but not before giving yet another panic attack to an entire state. Nebraska 28, Illinois 20.
Quick Hit Predictions:
#21 Liberty at NC State - I keep doubting Liberty and they keep proving me wrong. Certainly the Wolfpack can stop the madness right? I'm saying yes as they have 24 sacks on the season and rank 9th in the nation while Liberty ranks 90th in sacks given up with 17 so far this season. Wolfpack 34-28.
UCLA at #11 Oregon - Chip Kelly returns to Autzen Stadium to take on the PAC-12 favorite Ducks. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a talent, but so is CJ Verdell. If you haven't watched him tote the rock, tune in for just a bit and you'll see why NFL scouts are drooling over the Junior speedster. Ducks win easily 37-21.
Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh - The Hokies have fallen short in their past two games against Liberty and Miami, but the buck stops here. Pitt has a stout defense, but I think Khalil Herbert carries VT to victory. Hokies in a close one, 28-23.
LSU at Arkansas - The reigning champs are anything but this season, and should be very careful on the road in this one. The Pigs aren't completely terrible anymore, and that's primarily due to ex-Gator QB Feleipe Franks. He's been torching opposing secondaries, and LSU will likely feel that wrath. Hogs win the Golden Boot 35-31.
Arizona at Washington - The Wildcats and Huskies had to wait an extra week to start their 2020 seasons, but now come in with one game experience to use against each other. Arizona was edged out by USC while Washington was able to hold off the Beavers. I'm not really sure what to read into on this one, but the Huskies have good defense and that's usually a good way to win games. Washington wins 33-21.
#20 USC at Utah - The other mystery game of the week takes place out in Salt Lake City. USC has been able to survive a couple of close ones against the teams down in the desert, but how will they fair against the Utes? Well, since the Utes have yet to play in 2020, no one really knows! I'd love to see an upset, but without any information it's hard to say. Utah usually likes to make things interesting though, so why not. Utes win their season opener 31-28.
Thanks for reading my predictions and I hope you all have a fantastic and safe Saturday full of great football. Also, be sure to tune into 90.3 KRNU or click this LINK to hear my good friend Cody Frederick call the Husker game play by play from Memorial Stadium! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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