Happy Friday football fans, and welcome to a very unique Conference Championship weekend! In addition to the regular conference championship games, we have a number of conferences playing some extra games for teams, which includes my Huskers! Unfortunately we do have some cancelations, including the Sun Belt Championship rematch between my adopted Chanticleers and the Ragin' Cajuns. Nonetheless, there's still a lot of big games with some playoff implications, so let's get to the predictions!
Week 15(ish) Predictions: 6 - 9
Overall Prediction Record: 72 - 44
UAB vs. Marshall (C-USA Championship)
The Thundering Herd were upset by rice two weeks ago, ending their unbeaten season. While they won't be pushing for a New Year's Six bowl anymore, they can still claim their first Conference Championship since 2014. They'll be up against the Blazers, who have been to the C-USA Championship for the third year in a row after reviving their program in 2017 and just beat Rice last weekend. They won the 2018 C-USA title on the back of RB Spencer Brown. Brown rushed for 156 yards and 1 TD in the 2018 championship, and will look to better that performance against a tough Marshall defense. The Herd give up just 11.4 points per game on average, and hold opponents to 73 rush yards per game. It could be tough sledding for Brown and the Blazers in this one as I am willing to bet big money Marshall comes out hot after sitting on their only loss of the season for two weeks. The Herd will thunder on to a 28-24 victory.
Ball State vs. Buffalo (MAC Championship)
The Cardinals narrowly edged out the Broncos of Western Michigan last week to punch their ticket to Detroit. They will meet the Bulls of Buffalo there and the dynamic running attack led by one of the best backs in the nation, Jaret Patterson. Patterson has been phenomenal this season, rushing for 1,025 yards and 18 TDs in just 5 games. His best performance was a NCAA record-tying 8 TD game against Kent State with 406 yards. Patterson is averaging a staggering 8.3 yards per carry and has helped Buffalo to be one of the best offensive attacks in the nation, averaging over 500 yards and 50 points per game. Ball State has played well this year, but no one is stopping Patterson, and he better be taking home the Doak Walker award for best RB or there will be problems. Bulls route the Cardinals 45-20.
Oregon vs. #13 USC (PAC-12 Championship)
Despite being 5-0 like Ohio State, the Trojans aren't even close to sniffing out a spot in the College Football Playoffs. Originally, the PAC-12 hoped Oregon would be their chance, but after back to back losses to the Beavers and Golden Bears, Oregon fell quickly out of the rankings. USC has been able to win all of their games, but most of them have been pulled out of the fire. This game really has little meaning, especially when you consider Washington was unable to play and replaced by Oregon, those two teams didn't get to play last week because of covid-19 and USC and Colorado never played in the South Division. Nonetheless, this game will come down to the QB battle. Both offenses have been able to put up points this season, averaging around 35 points per game for each team. Kedon Slovis leads USC with 1,601 yards passing and a 15 to 4 TD to INT ratio. Tyler Shough will try to get the Ducks' offense back on track with his 1,389 yards and 11 to 4 TD to INT ratio. Neither team has much on defense, so it will likely be a high-scoring affair. On one hand it would be interesting to see how the committee disregards USC despite a 6-0 win, but it would also be entertaining to watch the Ducks pull the upset. I really don't think either team is that great this year, but I'll take the Trojans since they're +7 in turnover margin while the Ducks are -7. Fight on as USC wins 38-28.
Boise State vs. #24 San Jose State (Mountain West Conference Championship)
The Broncos are making their fourth straight appearance in the Mountain West Conference Championship game while the Spartans will be making their first. While Boise State has been here plenty of times, they haven't been quite as dynamic as usual this season. Sophomore QB Hank Bachmeier is still trying to find his rhythm as QB1, throwing for just 929 yards, 6 TDs and 2 picks so far this season. He'll need some help from his defense in this game as the opposing QB has been tremendous this season. Ex-Mississippi State Bulldog Nick Starkel has provided a big spark to the West Coast Spartans' offense with nearly 1,500 passing yards and 13 TDs compared to just 4 picks. He's supported by a defense that ranks 34th in the nation. The Spartans give up just an average of 17.5 points per game, and have 9 takeaways on the season. I like the Spartans to continue their undefeated season in this one and they will win their first ever Mountain West Championship behind the arm of Nick Starkel. San Jose State 34, Boise State 24.
#23 Tulsa vs. #9 Cincinnati (American Athletic Conference Championship)
Cincy has been getting screwed by the CFB Playoff Committee over the past month, and also screwed by covid-19, having their last two games canceled over that time period. I still think they're one of the better teams in the nation and deserve a shot against some of the bigger teams. If only the BIG 10 wasn't so dumb and Cincy and Ohio State could've played a game last week with a very simple travel plan to get both teams a big resume boost. Nonetheless, the Bearcats finally get a chance to flex their muscles again and it will be against the Golden Hurricanes of Tulsa. The 6-1 Hurricanes have pulled off numerous 4th quarter comebacks this season, but Cincy is a different monster. We should see some rugged defenses in this one as both teams give up fewer than 20 points per game on average. The Bearcats have been nearly impossible to move the ball on, ranking 9th in total defense with just over 300 yards per game on average given up to opposing offenses. As for the Tulsa defense, they have been able to hold down some dynamic offenses this season, but they have yet to see anything like Desmond Ridder and the Bearcats. I've got Cincy rolling big in this game and hopefully moving ahead of Florida and Georgia (where they should be) in the rankings. Bearcats 42, Golden Hurricanes 20.
#14 Northwestern vs. #4 Ohio State (BIG 10 Conference Championship)
Thanks to a quick eraser and re-writing of the rules, Ohio State has made it into the BIG 10 Championship despite only playing 5 games. They will take on the Wildcats who are making their second conference championship appearance in just three years. The Buckeyes are heavily favored, but don't count out Northwestern too quickly. This team took Ohio State to the wire two years ago in Indianapolis, and their defense in 2018 ranked 64th in the nation compared to 13th this season. Pat Fitzgerald always seems to have his teams ready to play. The Wildcats will be lead by graduate-transfer QB Peyton Ramsey, who's struggled at times, throwing for just 1,218 yards with 9 TDs and 6 picks. The lack of a rushing attack has limited the Northwestern's offense to just over 350 yards per game on average and 25.3 points per game. Luckily, their stout defense makes up for it well with just 14.6 points per game given up and dominating all areas of the field with veteran linebackers and secondary players. Look for them to lock up the run game and really make life difficult for Justin Fields. Northwestern has 12 interceptions on the season, and Fields will be pressured by LBs Paddy Fisher, Chris Bergin & Blake Gallagher all day. They Buckeyes trust Fields though, and there's good reason for it. The Hesiman hopeful has accounted for 20 total TDs already in this short season. One stat to watch is the sacks though, because Northwestern will certainly bring pressure. Fields has been sacked 15 times in the 5 games played by the Buckeyes, and the ground game hasn't been very dynamic for Ohio State. It would be amazing to see Northwestern pull this upset and show the CFB Playoff Committee how dumb it is to rank Ohio State #4 with minimal data to go off of, but I fear they don't quite have the offense to make it happen. Defense doesn't quite win championships anymore, and when you're playing Ohio State you need to score points. Should be a tighter game than the experts think, but much like the 2018 BIG 10 Championship, I don't think the Wildcats will pull off the victory. Ohio State moves onto the CFB Playoffs with a 30-17 victory.
#10 Oklahoma vs. #6 Iowa State (Big XII Championship)
The Cyclones are likely the biggest Notre Dame and Northwestern fans around this weekend as they look for a chance to hurdle Texas A&M and get into the CFB Playoff mix. But first, they must get through Oklahoma for the second time this season, this time for a Big XII Championship. The Sooners are familiar to this setting, looking for their 4th straight title in their 12th overall appearance. This is Iowa State's first appearance, but Matt Campbell has some thing special cooking in Ames. Senior QB Brock Purdy has been great this year with 2,272 yards and a 17 to 6 TD to INT ratio. He's complimented by one of the best running backs in the nation with Breece Hall. Hall has 17 TDs of his own to go along with 1,357 yards rushing and a 6.1 yard per carry average. The Sooner defense has really turned things around since losing to the Cyclones back in October, now ranking 16th in total defense. Both teams match up really well statistically, which means it comes down to playmakers making plays. Spencer Rattler has been dynamic for the Sooners and is completing 68.5 percent of his passes. I would expect a full shootout, and I'm going to go against my heart and follow one of my major rules in college football. You never want to play a team twice, and that favors the Sooners in this case. I really hope Iowa State can beat them twice, they have the talent to do so and I would expect a fun game down in Arlington. However, if I'm going to follow the rule I have to say Boomer Sooner in this one. Oklahoma avenges their loss in the form of a 35-30 victory for yet another Big XII Title. Hoping for Matt Campbell and the Cyclones to prove me wrong in this one!
#1 Alabama vs. #7 Florida (SEC Championship)
Despite losing to the unranked LSU Tigers thanks to a shoe throw and last second field goal last week, the CFB Playoff Committee showed their SEC bias yet again by sliding Florida down just 1 spot to #7. We'll have a battle of Heisman candidates in Atlanta as Kyle Trask and Mac Jones look to throw bombs all game long. The SEC defense mantra will be challenged in this game as both teams average more than 40 points per game and over 500 yards of total offense. Starting with the Gators, they'll be looking to get back into the playoff picture with a big win. Trask has the arm to get them there as he's thrown for 3,717 yards with 40 TDs and just 5 picks. He's hoping to have start TE Kyle Pitts back for this game who's missed time with an injury. He's a nightmare for every defense and a favorite target of Trask, especially in the redzone with 11 TDs thrown his way already. Bama has plenty of playmakers on their sideline though, and it all starts with the QB-WR duo of Mac Jones and Davonta Smith. While Jones only has 27 TD passes this season, 15 of them are to Smith who's averaging a staggering 16 yards per catch. Complimented by another 22 TDs and nearly 6 yards per carry by Najee Harris on the ground, the Tide have rolled everyone on their schedule. This should be an entertaining game to watch, but the nod always goes to Bama. Roll Tide as they win 49-42 in a wild shootout.
#3 Clemson vs. #2 Notre Dame (ACC Championship)
The much anticipated re-match of the Tigers & the Irish will take place in Charlotte, NC for the ACC Championship. This is Notre Dame's first ever chance at a conference title as they are traditionally an Independent school. They joined the ACC for this season due to covid-19 and knocked off the Tigers in South Bend back in early November. Clemson was without star QB Trevor Lawence and 3 key players on defense during that game though, so this rematch will be a different game. Starting with the Irish, they have been one of the most complete teams all season long. Ian Book has been tremendous at QB, throwing for 2,382 yards with 15 TDs and just 2 picks. He's added another 3 TDs on the ground and has been an incredible leader for this team. Kyren Williams has provided a strong boost on the ground with over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs. Williams ran wild against the Tigers in November, racking up 140 yards and 3 TDs. He'll have some of their best defenders tracking him down in this one since James Skalski, Mike Jones Jr. and Tyler Davis return to the field. As for the Tiger offense, they had no issues moving the ball in round one of this matchup, where backup QB DJ Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards and 2 TDs, adding a third on the ground. The big achilles heel was Travis Etienne being bottled up for just 28 yards. Even with Trevor Lawrence back, Etienne must be part of this offense for the Tigers to get the win. I'm still resisting the bandwagon despite my Uncle's attempts, but I have to follow my rule of never wanting to play a team twice in one season. With a Clemson victory in the ACC Championship we may even get a third matchup of these two teams in the Playoffs! Tigers win the rematch and their 6th straight ACC Title with a 38-34 victory.
Nebraska at Rutgers
Obviously the biggest game of the weekend takes place out in Piscataway, NJ on Friday night as the Scarlet Knights host the Scarlet & Cream Huskers. Scott Frost will try to end the season on a high note as the Huskers face their fourth straight losing season. This sets up to be an interesting game as the Scarlet Knights and Nebraska both have a rotating system at QB. Ex-Husker QB Noah Vedral has split time with Artur Sitkowski, but leads the team with 1,253 passing yards. (Un)Surprisingly that is only 13 yards short of the combined passing yards for Husker QBs Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey on the season. The TD to INT ratio isn't much better. Vedral has 9 TDs and 8 Picks while the Husker duo has just 4 TDs and 7 picks combined. Forgive me if I take a little bit of pleasure in these numbers as it shows the glaring issue of the abysmal Husker passing attack. I've said it all season long, but Nebraska won't be winning games without a downfield passing attack, and it looks like the QB who is semi-capable of it plays for their opponent tonight. Regardless, looking at this game it all sits on the Husker offense. This is a game where the teams' combined wins is only half of their combined losses, so it's all about who cares more to be here. The Husker defense has shown they can keep Nebraska in just about every game on the schedule, but the offense has not lived up to the hype. I hate bringing out this statistic, but the 2009 Zac Lee-led Husker offense is statistically better than the 2020 squad. They averaged 3 more points per game, which is horrifically mind-blowing. If the Huskers want to show any sort of improvement and momentum toward 2021, they need to score points. Rutgers' defense ranks 84th nationally and has been vulnerable against the run. Without the ability to pass the ball, Nebraska needs to rely heavily on the run game with Martinez, McCaffrey and Mills. Jet sweeps with Wan'Dale Robinson and Betts mixed into an option attack out of the backfield would be chaotic for the defense and nearly impossible to stop with the ball in any of those five players' hands. I doubt that will happen, but hopefully we'll see a little more emphasis on the run. I just pray the Husker defense can get a touchdown and make life a little easier. I'll take the Huskers since it's the final game of the season, but don't be surprised if Vedral has a breakout night and the Nebraska offense looks even more incompetent. Please just keep it simple tonight Huskers. Nebraska 28, Rutgers 23. GO BIG RED!
Thank you for reading all of my predictions and I hope you enjoy a fantastic weekend of football!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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