Howdy Football Fans, and welcome to Bowl Season! As I mentioned in my reflection post yesterday, Bowl Season came quickly in this odd, 2020 season. We started strong yesterday with a dominating offensive performance in a bit of a chippy game between Appalachian State and North Texas. This post covers all your bowl predictions through Saturday, December 26, so sit back, read on and enjoy!
Overall Season Prediction Record: 79 - 47 (62.7%)
Bowl Prediction Record: 1 - 0
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tulane vs. Nevada
An intriguing matchup is set to take place out in Boise as the Green Wave of Tulane take on the Wolfpack of Nevada. Familiar terrain certainly favors Nevada as they know the Smurf Turf well, but don't count out the boys from the Bayou yet. Tulane's 6-5 record may not show it well, but this team is talented and has some impressive wins over good programs like Army and Memphis. They've also won 4 out of their last 5, only falling to Tulsa in double overtime. That was the only game during that stretch were they didn't score at least 35 points, so the Nevada defense will have their hands full. The Wolfpack have been strong on that side of the ball though, holding teams to an average of 22.9 points per game. The story for them is at QB though, with Sophomore standout Carson Strong. Strong has surpassed his 2019 numbers despite playing fewer games and will cause a lot of headaches for Tulane's defense. He's completing just under 70 percent of his passes with more than 2,500 yards and a very impressive 22 to 4 TD to INT ratio. Strong is certainly going to be a QB to watch next year, and NFL scouts will soon take notice of the 6'4 gunslinger, if they haven't already. This could be tight late in the game, but I'm giving the nod to Strong and the Wolfpack. Nevada wins 37-31.
Boca Raton Bowl
UCF vs. #16 BYU
In what's been referred to as the acronym bowl this year, Boca Raton plays host to two of the most dynamic offensive attacks in the nation. The Golden Knights rank #2 and #8 in total offense and #5 and #6 in scoring offense respectively. Even at 75.5, I would bet the over with these two. They score fast and often with big plays and downfield throws, the QB battle is going to be incredible. Starting with UCF, they're led by Sophomore Dillon Gabriel. He's improved upon all of his numbers from a season ago, apart from passing yards where he's only short 300 yards. That's pretty impressive for playing four fewer games than 2019, but not as impressive has the 30 to 4 TD to INT ratio. However, BYU's Junior QB, Zach Wilson won't be outdone easily. He's got a 30 to 3 TD to INT ratio of his own posted, and has boosted his completion percentage by 11 percent up to 73.2 this season. His roommate, Dax Milne, is his favorite target with 1,118 yards and 8 TDs on the year. Both QBs are dual-threat options as well, so the defenses will be gassed by the end of this game. BYU's defense has good rankings, but not much substance when looking at some of their competition. UCF has proven they can score on any one though, so this should come down to the wire. It's really hard to decide between these great QBs, but I'll go with BYU. Cougars win it in a thriller 54-47.
R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
The Bulldogs of LA Tech don't have to travel too far for this one, but they have a tough opponent coming in with the Eagles of GA Southern. Two very different offensive attacks meet as the Bulldogs love to air it out, averaging 227.4 passing yards per game, while the Eagles love to run the ball with 262.5 rushing yards per game. Kind of opposite for the mascots if you think about it, but we should still have a fun game. Both teams are very disciplined, averaging under 5 penalties per game each. However, Georgia Southern has so many different players who can run the ball, with their top 5 rushers all with more than 300 yards and at least a 5 yard per carry average or more. The Bulldogs give up nearly 200 rush yards per game on average, so this does not bode well for them. Georgia Southern wins 30-21.
Montgomery Bowl
Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic's offensive prowess has certainly taken a hit since Lane Kiffin left for Oxford, but their defense has held strong this season, ranking 15th in the nation statistically and holding teams to under 17 points per game on average. The Owls will have a tough task ahead though as the Tigers are led by Senior QB Brady White. White has had a phenomenal career in Memphis, throwing for more than 10,000 yards and 87 Touchdowns after transferring from Arizona State. This season he's thrown for 3,096 yards and 28 TDs, and will be looking to add a bit more to that against FAU. The Owls' offense again has taken a hit, dropping from 23rd a year ago in total offense, to 111th this season. Memphis has not been impressive on defense however, giving up nearly 450 yards and 30 points per game on average. If the Owls can get in a groove, they have a shot at the upset. However, I'm not going to go against Brady White in his final game. Tigers win this one 38-28.
New Mexico Bowl
Hawai'i vs. Houston
A battle of the H schools as the Rainbow Warriors and Cougars meet in Frisco, Texas for the New Mexico Bowl. Try not to think about it too much. Also, try not to think of the stats too much in this one either, because they are a mess. Both teams give up more points than they score on average and have each loss 3 out of their last 5 games. Just because I love digging, the Cougars have recorded 22 sacks in their 7 games, while the Rainbow Warriors have given up 26 sacks in their 8 games. For a team who likes to throw as much as Hawai'i does, this is not a good looking statistic. Both of these defenses have been pitiful all season, but if one can step up, that will likely be the difference in the game. I like Houston in this one, and the Cougars will win 41-31.
Camellia Bowl
Marshall vs. Buffalo
After a two day turnaround at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama, the Thundering Herd and Bulls will take the field to battle. This is actually one of my favorite matchups of bowl season. Both teams were red hot and dominating their conferences, but both were also upset last weekend in their conference championship games. Ball State was able to bottle up Buffalo's star RB Jaret Patterson for just 47 yards and 1 TD. Considering the man had over 1,000 and 18 TDs in just 5 games prior to the MAC Championship, that's an impressive feat. As for the Heard, they've struggled to find their rhythm again on offense, turning the ball over 6 times in the past two games and scoring 0 and 13 points respectively. UAB was able to rush for over 260 on the Heard last week, so if Buffalo can get Patterson going again, there won't me much Thundering on Christmas Day. This one should be a battle, but I like the Bulls to rumble out on top in this head to head. Buffalo 30, Marshall 24.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
South Carolina vs. UAB
Speaking of the Blazers, they take on the Gamecocks in Tampa the following day. Despite firing Will Muschamp back in November, South Carolina accepted a bowl invite with a 2-8 record. Shane Beamer has signed a deal to become the new Head Coach next year, but his team has to get through a tough UAB squad first. They've won two out of three C-USA Championships since reviving their program, and have a talented Senior RB in Spencer Brown leading the way. Brown has rushed for 889 yards and 10 TDs so far this season, with a 4.8 yard per carry average. He's only missed the century mark twice in 2020 and is never easy to take down. With the Gamecocks giving up an average of 195.4 rushing yards per game, I expect Brown to have a big day. UAB wins 40-24.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
#19 Louisiana vs. UTSA
The Ragin' Cajuns look to cap off an impressive 2020 season with their 10th victory as they take on the Roadrunners from San Antonio. Both teams can move the ball, averaging around 420 yards per game on offense. However, Louisiana has a strong edge on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 31st in total defense and 12th in turnover margin with +9. The Roadrunners aren't far behind with +8, but do give up more yards and points on average. This game will likely come down to fewest mistakes, especially with so much offensive firepower on both sides. Both teams rank high in penalties per game, but the Ragin' Cajuns have played too well all season not to pick them. They win 38-28 and pick up their 10th win of the season.
Lending Tree Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State
There's a not a lot that makes senes when you look at the numbers in this game, but that's where the mystery factor of bowl games comes into play, you never know how teams will play! The Hilltoppers have former Maryland QB Tyrell Pigrome at the head, and he's thrown for over 1,400 yards with 9 TDs and 0 picks. However, their offense still averages under 20 points and 300 yards per game. Luckily, Georgia State's defense has been one of the worst in the nation, ranking 92nd in scoring defense by giving up an average of 32.9 points per game. The Hilltopers give up just 24 points per game while Georgia State averages 32 points on offense. So, we have weakness on weakness and strength on strength. That's where we look for a statistic with a large gap between the teams as a potential difference maker. My difference maker stat in this game is sacks. Georgia State is tied for 9th in the nation, recording 32 sacks so far this season while the Hilltoppers rank near the bottom in sacks allowed, giving up 25 this year. That doesn't bode well for Pigrome and I've got the Panthers winning this one. Georgia State 33, Western Kentucky 21.
FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl
Liberty vs. #12 Coastal Carolina
Now I believe my (adopted) undefeated Chanticleers deserve more respect and a higher bowl, but it will be interesting to watch the game that had to be replaced by BYU due to Liberty's Covid-19 outbreak. The 9-1 Flames are back on the docket for Coastal Carolina, and this game should be a good one to watch. Hugh Freeze has Liberty rolling through competition this year, averaging 38.3 points per game while giving up just 19.2. The Chanticleers won't be out done though, and their perfect record is a reflection of their impressive averages, scoring 37.5 and giving up just 18.7. The QB battle is the key factor in this game, as Flames' Junior QB Malik Willis and Chanticleer Freshman QB Grayson McCall lead their dynamic offensive attacks. Willis is the leading rusher for Liberty in addition to his passing ability and has racked up more than 2,800 total yards of offense with 30 total TDs. McCall leads one of the most balanced offensive attacks though, and has a number of deadly weapons at this disposal. He's extremely smart with the ball, throwing just 2 picks in 2020 and his favorite target, WR Jaivon Heiligh, already has 10 TDs on the season. Defensively these teams will have to contain the QBs as they both scramble well out of pressure and can pick up key first downs with their legs. The Chanticleers did this well against BYU's Zach Wilson and that's a big reason on why I give them the edge. Easily one of the most entertaining teams to watch in 2020, Coastal Carolina perfects their season with a victory over the Flames to go 12-0. Chanticleers win it 33-28.
Thank you for reading all of my early bowl predictions and watch for upcoming posts for the other bowl games ahead. GO BIG RED (and Chanticleers)!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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