Good morning football fans and happy GAMEDAY! This week features a lot of fun matchups with multiple in the top 15. There are some major CFB Playoff implication games and important ones for teams to get back into their conference race. I've got all my predictions below, so read on and enjoy October Football!
Week 4 Record: 11 - 7
Overall Record: 47 - 24
#8 Arkansas at #2 Georgia
We kick off Week 5 with the biggest game of the week as the Razorbacks travel between the hedges to take on the Bulldogs. These unbeaten SEC foes square up for a big battle as the Hogs are red-hot on offense but UGA is an immovable force on defense. The spread favors Georgia by 17 points, but I'm not so sure this will be a three score game. Woo Pig Sooie has been rolling on offense, averaging 480 yards per game and 35 points. Georgia hasn't given up much of anything this year, but they also haven't played an offense this high-powered. This will truly be a challenge for Kriby Smart's defense, but that's not my key to the game. Georgia's offense is the primary factor in this one. They also have yet to be truly challenged other than the Clemson game to start the season, and they did nothing in that 10-3 victory as the defense's pick-six was the deciding factor. JT Daniels has been mediocre and that won't cut it against a Hogs defense that already has 10 sacks and 7 takeaways to their name. Stetson Bennet will actually get the start at QB for the dogs. I'm not completely sold on either teams validity yet, but I know this won't be a very high scoring game. I'll take the dawgs at home, but this one should be close. UGA 27-21.
#14 Michigan at Wisconsin
The Badgers have fallen apart quickly this season, especially on offense. Sophomore QB Graham Mertz is struggling more and more each game, accounting for 6 interceptions so far this season. The run game hasn't quite developed since Jonathan Taylor's exit two seasons ago, and Wiscy is averaging just 19 points per game. Defensively they're still solid, but Michigan brings in a new kind of challenge with a two-headed rushing monster in Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins. The two have combined for nearly 800 yards on the ground and 13 TDs. The run game is helping with the confidence boost surging in Ann Arbor, but this will be their toughest test yet. Things are starting to spiral for the Badgers though, and I'm not sure they have a QB who can fix it. Michigan fends off the Badgers for a big road win 23-17.
#7 Cincinnati at #9 Notre Dame
Our other top 10 matchup features the Bearcats against the Irish in South Bend. This will be a really unique game to watch as it's a big test for Cincy who's itching to make a big name for themselves, and the Irish need a resume building win to start playoff talks about them. Notre Dame's defense blew the Wisconsin game wide open last week with a pair of pick-sixes late in the game. Cincy doesn't turn the ball over nearly as much as the Badgers though, and Notre Dame has been flirting with a variety of upsets this season. Desmond Ridder is my key to this game as he can give the Irish defense headaches with the right game plan. Notre Dame has some injuries on offense, and with a young offensive line they could find a number of challenges in this game. Both teams are looking to make a big statement in this one, but I think the experience of Cincy will prevail and they get the big time win they've been looking for. Bearcats with the upset 31-28.
#12 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama
The Rebels have been putting up some flashy numbers under second-year head coach Lane Kiffin. He'll be facing a familiar foe with Nick Saban, who Kiffin coached with from 2014 - 2017. Ole Miss is starting this season strong, but the Tide will certainly be their first test. Saban has them rolling like usual, but with a lot of youth there's bound to be a few close games. We know both teams can score, so turnovers will be a major factor in this one. The secondaries for both teams will be tested early and often with the high-powered air attacks. Nick Saban is a staggering 23-0 against former assistants, and that's not going to change today. The Tide Roll as Bama beats Ole Miss 37-21.
#3 Oregon at Stanford
One of my favorite games every season is the PAC-12 battle of Oregon and Stanford. This rivalry in the Pacific Northwest often has a major impact on not only the conference championship, but also the ability of a team from this conference to send a team to the playoffs. Tanner McKee for the Cardinal has been playing very well, throwing for 863 yards and 8 TDs through 4 games. Unfortunately for Stanford, their defense has fallen off from the days of dominance in the Pacific Rim. Oregon's defense however has continued to improve year after year, and could end up being on of the best this season behind star defensive end Kayvon Thibideaux, who should be full-go up at the Farm. Stanford typically likes to play this game pretty tight, but I think Oregon runs away with this one. Ducks win their third straight over the Cardinal with a 38-17 victory.
#6 Oklahoma at Kansas State
Coming off their first loss of the season, the Power Cats return home to take on the other Oklahoma boys. The Sooners were able to fend off West Virginia with a last second field goal, but K-State is known for upsets in Manhattan. Spencer Rattler has been very mediocre this morning and a number of OU fans have been calling for his backup to step in and run the show. We'll see how Rattler handles a Wildcat defense that will be looking to rebound after a subpar performance against the Pokes last Saturday. Offensively, K-State will look to ground and pound as they've attempted fewer than 80 passes all season. Deuce Vaughn is the feature back and he's averaging just over 5 yards per carry. The Sooners never travel well to Manhattan and are really struggling right now. Prime pickings for an upset as K-State gets a big win 33-21.
#10 Florida at Kentucky
Both of these teams are looking to keep pace with Georgia in the SEC East, which means the loser is unlikely to win the East division at the fo the year. The Gators are likely the best challengers of the dogs, but Kentucky has a few tricks up their sleeve. One of their tricks is ex-Husker receiver Wan'dale Robinson. He's already caught more than 400 yards in passes, which has nearly surpassed each of his two season totals at Nebraska. It's nice (and very sad) to see a team properly utilize his skillset and give him the ball in good places to let his skillset go to work. This offense will certainly test the Gators, and Lexington is becoming a more difficult place to win. However, despite their growing pains, Florida is still putting up nearly 550 yards per game. Dan Mullen will have his team ready in this one, but it should be fun to watch. Florida 35, Kentucky 24.
#21 Baylor at #19 Oklahoma State
A potential Big XII shoot-out takes place yet again in Stillwater as the Cowboys host the Bears this week. Both teams had big wins last week against other Big XII foes, and want to start separating themselves from the rest of the conference. Both defenses have been tough this year, but I think there will be plenty of points in this one. Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon has thrown for over 800 yards with 7 TDs this season and Spencer Sanders leads the Pokes. The run game is a key factor in this game as both run defenses will be up against talented backs who are not easy to bring down. Senior RBs Abram Smith (Baylor) and Jaylen Warren (OSU) are averaging 7.2 and 4.9 yards per carry respectively and will be a focal point of both offenses. This will tell us a lot about both teams, but I like Baylor on the road for this one. OSU proved me wrong last week, but I don't think they will this week, even though they are one of the teams that regularly cause me prediction headaches. Bears Sic 'em 35-31.
#22 Auburn at LSU
The annual battle of the SEC West Tigers is set in Death Valley this year as Auburn travels to LSU. Neither team has looked very impressive yet this season, and there are a number of other teams in the conference starting to rise up the ranks. Both offenses have talent and can put up points. This game will be won on defense and who can get stops and cause turnovers. Tank Bigsby, the Auburn RB should be a focal point as they will look to ground and pound to keep the ball away from LSU. The home team Tigers have struggled to get teams off the field on third down and I think that will be the difference maker. Auburn allows just under 35% of third downs to be converted on defense and I think they will win this game in Death Valley for the first time in 1999. Upset in Death Valley! Auburn 28, LSU 21.
Arizona State at #20 UCLA
This game could easily be the primary deciding factor in who wins the PAC-12 South. The Sun Devils travel to Pasadena to take on UCLA and I'm a bit conflicted. I've had UCLA as my dark horse to win the South and challenge Oregon. However, in my pre-season predictions I said Arizona State would win the South. Sun Devil QB Jayden Daniels is talented, but has been turnover prone, throwing 3 picks compared to just 2 TDs so far this season. For the Bruins, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has done very well, throwing for 9 TDs and just 1 pick. This should be a really good game to watch and could go either way. I'm going with my dark horse and taking UCLA. They've shown they can put up points and I think Arizona State's offense won't quite be able to keep up. Bruins beat the Sun Devils with an extra score late 34-21.
Northwestern at Nebraska
Homecoming at Nebraska features one of the best matchups every year in the BIG 10. This game is almost always a nail-biter as the Wildcats and Huskers often end on big plays late in the game. Northwestern has really struggled this year, on both sides of the ball. Their defense is rebuilding from losing lot's of talent from last year's team. However, Pat Fitzgerald always has this team ready to play, especially in Lincoln. Offensively, they will look to run the ball with Sophomore RB Evan Hull who's averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Luckily, the Blackshirts don't give up much on the ground and have been dominant on the defensive side of the ball. I anticipate a low scoring affair, and it will likely be a one score game. The Husker offense still needs to establish a run game outside of Adrian Martinez, because if there's one strength of the Wildcat defense, it's their secondary. They will have tight coverage on the receivers, which will force Martinez to hold the ball longer. That leads to sacks because the o-line doesn't give much protection. The run game is a major factor in this game. Last but not least, Northwestern ranks in the top 5 of punt returns in the nation. They have had returns over 50 and 60 yards along with multiple over 20, 30 and 40. With the horrendous special teams unit for Nebraska, I can almost guarantee a score in that phase of the game by the Wildcats. Huskers hang on for the victory though, because I'm not picking against them on my Mom's Birthday/my 1/2 Birthday! Nebraska 24, Northwestern 17. GO BIG RED!
Quick Hit Predictions:
Indiana at #4 Penn State - Revenge is on the mind for the Nittany Lions as the Hoosiers come into Happy Valley. Michael Penix Jr. has not been able to take care of the ball much this season, so unfortunately I think Penn State rolls in their revenge game. Nittany Lions 38, Hoosiers 21.
Nevada at Boise State - Yet another game I'm torn on as I had Nevada as a dark horse in the Mountain West to win it all and this is the matchup I have for the championship. The Wolfpack will need to keep pace with Fresno if they want a shot at the title and they're in the tougher division. This is almost a must-win game for them and I think Carson Strong gets it done. Wolfpack upset the Broncos at home 36-33.
Boston College at #25 Clemson - The Tigers have fallen quickly from the ranks of the top and now they host the red-hot Eagles in Death Valley. Clemson has really struggled to move the ball on offense, and I think BC will certainly put up points. However, the Tigers aren't losing two in a row and certainly not at home. They give BC their first loss 31-21.
Minnesota at Purdue - The Gophers are struggling this year and are becoming very hard to predict with. Purdue gets star wideout David Bell back and Minnesota's pass defense is their weakness. Boiler Up as they beat the Gophers 34-21.
Texas at TCU - The Horned Frogs have yet to play a Big XII game this season, but get to host a hot Longhorn offense for their first one. This one is likely going to be a shootout and that favors Texas. Hook 'Em as Texas beats TCU 42-31.
Texas Tech at West Virginia - The Red Raiders were quickly embarrassed by Texas last week while WVU lost to OU on a last second field goal. The Mountaineers should bounce back quicker and beat the Red Raiders 34-21.
Pitt and Georgia Tech - The Yellow Jackets nearly knocked off Clemson and completed blew out UNC. Pitt has been in a lot of tight games, but usually fends-off Georgia Tech. Not today! Georgia Tech gets the upset at home 30-28.
Mississippi State at #15 Texas A&M - The Aggies were ran over, around and through by the Hogs last week, and now they welcome in the high-flying offense of the Pirate, Mike Leach. Will Rodgers could have a very big night picking apart this defense, but I think the Aggie pass rush gets things back on track. Aggies 31, Bulldogs 21.
Thank you for reading my Gameday Predictions and GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
No comments:
Post a Comment