Good morning football fans and happy gameday! There is a fantastic run of games this week as we have multiple ranked matchups including one in the top 5. I've got all my key factors to victory for each team below, I hope you enjoy the predictions. I struggled last week as I went a bit upset crazy, but some of them certainly paid off.
Week 5 Record: 9 - 10
Overall Record: 56 - 34
#6 Oklahoma vs. #21 Texas (Red River Rivalry)
Now called the Red River Showdown (lame), Texas and Oklahoma meet for the 117th time. Played in the Cotton Bowl, this rivalry game often comes down to the wire. This year's prediction is tricky as I honestly don't think either team is that amazing. The Sooners have been able to hold off upsets in their last few weeks while Texas bounced back after getting stomped by Arkansas, but hasn't played very talented teams. The key factor to watch in this game is the Sooner run defense vs. Bijan Robinson. The Longhorn's star running back has more than 650 yards on the ground with 7 TDs to go with it. He's averaging 6.2 yards per carry and is very tricky to bring down. Offensively for Oklahoma, they haven't looked great this season, but Texas is vulnerable to big plays, giving up 9 plays that have gone for 30+ yards so far this season. I can see some odd things happening in this game, but Oklahoma will likely prevail. They're very good at doing enough to avoid the upset, and I don't think the horns quite have it yet. Boomer Sooner as they win 30-24.
#13 Arkansas at #17 Ole Miss
Both the Hogs and the Rebels were rolled last week by Georgia and Alabama respectfully. There were some upset calls last week, but it was clear pretty quickly that these teams weren't at that level. This is a very interesting matchup however as both offenses love to rack up yards and points. Both QBs are playing well, but Matt Corral has the edge with more than 1,200 yards and 10 TDs through the air. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is a threat on the ground though, racking up 162 yards and 2 TDs rushing just in the last two weeks. The Landsharks will have to slow down the run game early. Corral has revenge on his mind after throwing 6 interceptions in this game a year ago. Ole Miss wins at home 31-21.
#2 Georgia at #18 Auburn
While I'm not completely sold on Georgia's offense, their defense made me eat my words pretty quick last week. The Dawgs are unbelievable on defense, giving up just 4.6 points per game and 177.8 yards per game on average. Auburn has bounced back since their loss in Happy Valley and Bo Nix has been playing well. Unfortunately none of that will matter when he's getting hit in the backfield nearly every time he drops back to pass. The o-line for the Tigers has been great this season, allowing just 3 sacks all year. But Georgia has 18 total. This is the big matchup of the game and I like the defense to win that battle. Auburn should put up more of a fight than Arkansas, but Georgia wins 24-10.
#4 Penn State at #3 Iowa
Easily the biggest game of the day, and it takes place in Iowa City. Kinnick is never an easy place to win, but the Nittany Lions usually come out on top. They haven't lost in Iowa City since 2010, and are looking to make a big statement win today. The Hawkeyes are ranked #3 in the nation and it's all due to their dominating defense. They rank 1st in turnovers and points off turnovers in the nation. Their defense is very opportunistic, and overall the Hawkeyes just don't make mistakes. Their offense has not been very impressive this season, and this will certainly be their biggest test of the year. Running back Tyler Goodson should be a focal point of the offense, but QB Spencer Petras will need to make throws in order to win this game. This is where Penn State needs to be aggressive and apply pressure. This will be a true BIG 10 slug fest, and keeping the ball safe is crucial. I like Penn State with the edge though, I think their offense has a bit more juice than Iowa. Nittany Lions beat the Hawkeyes 23-19.
#14 Notre Dame at Virginia Tech
The Irish were stifled at home last week against Cincy, especially up front, giving up 7 tackles for loss last week. On the road in Lane Stadium at night is not a good way to recover from a loss, especially with the Hokies playing great defense. Virginia Tech has 13 sacks on the year and I think they'll get a few more in this one. Notre Dame needs to try and establish the run to help Jack Coan. This one feels like an upset though, Hokies win 33-28.
LSU at #16 Kentucky
The Bayou Bengals are reeling hard after losing at home to Auburn last week. Kentucky needs to hit them early and knock them out. Ex-Husker Wan'dale Robinson is always a big play threat and should be able to shred the LSU secondary, which is giving up nearly 250 pass yards per game on average. Then the Wildcats will look to ground and pound with RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. LSU's best chance for a victory on the road is discipline. They need to do the little things right like owning the line of scrimmage and giving their QB time to pass. I like the Wildcats in this one though, their defense make some very sneaky plays. Kentucky 34, LSU 21.
#1 Alabama at Texas A&M
Early in the year this was looked at as the game that may decide the SEC West. Now it's more of a game on how badly A&M will lose. The Aggies have fallen off quick the last couple weeks, falling to Arkansas and Mississippi State. Unfortunately, they're playing Alabama, who has more offense than the Hogs and Bulldogs combined. A&M has struggled to find their own identity for offense, which means Bama will likely live in the backfield most of the game. This one could get ugly quickly. The Tide Roll 37-20.
#9 Michigan at Nebraska
The Huskers host the Wolverines in prime time at Memorial Stadium. There's nothing more you can ask for than two of the historically best teams in all of CFB battling it out under the lights. The energy in Memorial Stadium last week was incredible and I know the buzz around campus this past week will lead to an even crazier atmosphere. This won't be a high-scoring affair for Nebraska like last week though. Michigan comes in with the 7th best scoring defense in the nation while the Huskers sit just behind them at 12th. Both offenses will be challenged, especially up front. For the Huskers, this will be the best defensive line they've faced all season. Michigan's defense is very fast to the edge and has one of the nation's best pass rushers in Aiden Hutchinson who has 5.5 sacks on the year. Establishing a run game outside of Adrian Martinez is crucial to victory. The other key factor to win this game is forcing Michigan to throw the ball. The Wolverine's run the ball more than 70% of the time, which is one of the highest marks in the nation. Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins are a dominating duo in the backfield, so the Blackshirts have their work cut out for them. If they can force Wolverine QB Cade McNamara to throw in third and long situations, they can slow down this offense and get the ball back to Adrian Martinez. This will be a hard hitting game and dumb mistakes will quickly lose this game. This is a big game for the Huskers to prove they're headed in the right direction and they'll have the full support of Memorial Stadium at night. Michigan has never won in Lincoln, and I'd like to keep it that way. Huskers win 24-21!
GO BIG RED!
Quick Hit Predictions:
West Virginia at Baylor - The Bears are coming off their first loss of the season while the Mountaineers have dropped back to back games to OU and TTU, losing by 3 each time. Oklahoma State was able to slow down Baylor's offense, but I think they bounce back at home as WVU loses another close one. Bears Sic 'Em 28-21.
Virginia at Louisville - The Cardinals nearly upset Wake Forrest on the road last week, but couldn't quite hang on for the victory. For Virginia, Brennan Armstrong has been slinging it, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards already this season to go with 14 TDs and just 4 picks. I think he's going to light up the Louisville secondary as the Cavaliers win 35-21.
Boise State at #10 BYU - The Broncos have had a brutally difficulty schedule this year and it's not getting any easier this week as they travel to 10th ranked BYU. The Cougars are proving everything didn't revolve around Zach Wilson as Sophomore Jaren Hall has stepped in well. The key player to watch is BYU running back Tyler Allgeier as he's averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has 7 TDs so far this season. Allgeier and the Cougars should steam roll this Broncos team that has struggled against the run. BYU 38, Boise State 20.
Thank you for reading all my Gameday predictions and I hope you have a fantastic Saturday!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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