Happy Thanksgiving football fans! I am extremely thankful for you all reading my blog each week, This is always my favorite football weekend of the year as it often has some of the best games accompanied by the wonderful Thanksgiving Feast. While conference realignment and scheduling has taken away some of the great rivalries in college football, we still have many of the great ones to watch and there are a lot of big implications on the line with some of these games. So, grab a plate, sit back, and enjoy a full weekend of some of the best College Football games of the year. IT'S RIVALRY WEEKEND!
Week 12 Record: 13 - 2
Overall Record: 123 - 60
Mississippi State at #20 Ole Miss (The Egg Bowl)
Lane Kiffin has emphatically stated he is not going anywhere and has his sights set on the Egg Bowl trophy for the Rebels of Ole Miss. They welcome in the Pirate Mike Leach and his Bulldogs from Starkville into Oxford. Both teams are statistically equal in terms of points per game and points given up. Ole Miss has a more balanced offensive attack averaging over 500 yards per game. Quinshon Judkins leads their rushing attack with a 6 yard per carry average and 16 TDs on the season. Mississippi State has been decent against the run game, but if the Rebels can get Judkins moving that will open up a lot of things on offense. I honestly expect a high scoring game between these two tonight as both offenses are the focal point of these teams. This one will be close but Kiffin has something big to prove in this one after all the rumors this week. Rebels take the Egg Bowl 38-33.
#19 Tulane at #24 Cincinnati
This ranked v ranked matchup in the American Conference has big weight to it as the winner locks up their spot in the American Conference Championship game and home field advantage. The loser needs the almost impossible task of 1-10 USF upsetting rival UCF so they can still attend the conference championship for a rematch of this game. UCF has head to head wins over both Tulane and Cincy, so the loser falls beneath them in conference rankings. Looking at this game, both teams are almost identical in the stat sheet. Green Wave RB Tyjae Spears will be an X-factor in this game as he average 6.4 yards per carry and helps with the Time of Possession game for Tulane. The QB battle is about dead even, so turnovers are the big key to winning this game. Both teams are in the positive margin for turnovers, so I'll lean toward the home team. Cincy has had sustained success over the past few years and I think they hold on to attend their 4th straight American Conference Championship. Bearcats beat the Green Wave at home 31-24.
NC State at #17 North Carolina
A surprising Georgia Tech upset has knocked the Tar Heels down a few pegs, and now they have to host the in-state rival Wolfpack in order to bounce back. NC State is looking to bounce back as well after they've fallen to Boston College and Louisville the last two weekends. The Wolfpack have always been tough on defense, but the offense this year has struggled. As for the Heels, their sensational Freshman QB Drake Maye is making a hell of a Heisman Campaign with over 4,000 total yards and 39 TDs so far this season. I think he'll be too much to stop and the Heels win this one behind a big performance from Maye. North Carolina 33, NC State 20.
Florida at #16 Florida State
The Gators have had a disappointing season, but have a unique opportunity to spoil some Florida State fun as they're looking for their first 9-win season since 2016. Whenever you talk Florida football these days, it starts (and ends) with Sophomore QB Anthony Richardson. The 6'4, 230 lbs. hometown kid leads the Gator offense and has accounted for 23 total touchdowns so far this season. There is talent around him, but nothing has quite clicked this year. Still many pieces to figure out, but this could be a dangerous unit next year. This year however, I give the nod to the 'Noles. Florida State is led by Junior QB Jordan Travis who has 26 total TDs and just 4 picks on the year. The biggest story is the FSU defense, giving up just 18 points per game on average, they rank 11th in the nation in total defense. That's the deciding factor in this one and I've got Florida State winning the Sunshine State Showdown 30-17.
South Carolina at #8 Clemson
Over the last 7 years (Clemson's current win-streak in the rivalry), this game hasn't been much to shake a stick at. Clemson has dominated the series with only one game being decided by single digit points. This year however could be different. The Gamecocks have been up and down but have a big spark with their upset win over Tennessee last week where they dropped 63 on the Volunteers and knocked them out of Playoff contention. The Tigers still have an outside shot at getting back into the playoff picture, but they need some help and they need to make some statements. South Carolina isn't a big feather in the cap as a win, but if they can flex their muscles this would be a helpful piece to the resume. Clemson's defense is much tougher than Tennessee's though, so I wouldn't expect 63 points from the Gamecocks in this one. If Clemson can get a ground game going to help out DJ Uiagalelei a lot. Tigers win their 8th straight against the Gamecocks 35-17.
Coastal Carolina at James Madison
Due to a (stupid) NCAA rule, despite the early and impressive success in their first season as a member of the FBS, James Madison is not allowed to participate in post-season games including the Sun Belt Conference Championship. Coastal Carolina has that spot locked up from their division, but an asterisk would certainly be put next to their name should the Dukes come out victorious in this one. The Chanticleers are always one of my favorite teams to watch and Junior QB Grayson McCall continues his winning ways with over 2,300 yards passing, 21 TDs and just 1 pick. The QB on the other side is no slouch though. Senior Todd Centeio has 2,410 yards passing so far this season with a 21:5 TD to INT ratio. James Madison is favored by 14 points at home but that just doesn't sit right to me with how Coastal Carolina has played the last few weeks. Chanticleers with the upset on the road for another 10-win season. Coastal Carolina 31, James Madison 28.
Minnesota at Wisconsin (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)
There's more than just the Axe on the line for the Gophers in this one. Minnesota is looking for their first set of consecutive wins in the series since 1993-94. Wisconsin has dominated this series over the last few decades and despite their disappointing season, they could still finish 7-5 and with a bowl game on the horizon. Despite a 263 yard performance from Mohamed Ibrahim, the Gophers threw away (literally) an easy victory against the Hawkeyes. Watching that game in person was very fun (and cold), but I once again could not believe how stupid decisions always cause teams to flop against the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin is tough on defense as usual, but if the Gophers stick to the ground game they could run away with this one. Ibrahim is one of the best running backs in the nation and has been nearly impossible to stop all season long. GIVE HIM THE BALL AND THEN GIVE IT TO HIM MORE! Gophers win two straight against the Badgers for the first time in nearly 30 years with a 21-17 victory.
Kansas at #12 Kansas State (Sunflower Showdown)
The Wildcats are riding a 13 year win streak into this rivalry game, and usually don't give this matchup much concern. However, no one is overlooking the Jayhawks any more. Despite some bumps in the road, Kansas is bowl eligible for the first time since 2008 and could spoil their in-state rival's season with an upset win, potentially keeping them out of the Big XII Title game. Jayhawk QB Jalon Daniels brings a dynamic spark to the offense, but back-up QB Jason Bean is always ready if injuries occur. He's stepped in multiple times this year and played well, so the offense should run well with both. Kansas State's offense also has two talented QBs with Junior Will Howard and ex-Husker Adrian Martinez. Both bring a different skillset as Howard brings the air attack while Martinez manages the option game. It looks like Howard is starting to take the QB1 spot, but don't discount the option of both being played. With so many QBs on both sides being options, the defensive units have a lot to prepare for. K-State's defense has been impressive all year and I'll give them the nod as they make it to the Big XII Championship for the first time since 2003. Wildcats 38, Jayhawks 17.
Auburn at #9 Alabama (The Iron Bowl)
The 2022 Iron Bowl doesn't have as much weight behind it as previous years, but it's still the game you don't want to lose for either school Auburn can get bowl eligible with an upset win, but Bama doesn't just lose 3 games in a year willy nilly. Bryce Young and the Tide have slowly been getting more rhythm on offense. Auburn has been playing tough the last few weeks under interim head coach Carnell Williams. They could hang around in this one but I like Bama to win their 3rd straight in the series. Crimson Tide 34, Tigers 17.
#13 Washington at Washington State (The Apple Cup)
The Huskies are hoping for a big Beaver upset over the Ducks as they play this game late Saturday night. They'll know that result ahead of this kickoff, but regardless the potential for a 10-win regular season for a first-year head coach in Kalen DeBoer is phenomenal. Ex-Hoosier QB Michael Penix Jr. has been a key piece in that, throwing for nearly 4,000 yards and accounting for 28 total TDs. His counterpart, Cameron Ward, is a D-II transfer who had 47 TD passes a year ago with Incarnate Word. This season he's currently sitting at 21 passing TDs with another 4 on the ground. He's led the Cougars on a 3-game win streak throughout November and they'd love nothing more than to win two in a row against the Huskies. This should be a close in up in the Palouse, but I think UW takes the Apple Cup home with a 30-27 victory.
#15 Notre Dame at #6 USC (Battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh)
Notre Dame and USC battle in LA as the Trojans look to boost themselves into the College Football Playoffs. They got snubbed in the rankings yet again as they should be ahead of LSU in the CFB Playoff rankings by my count. The Trojans have one of the best offensive attacks in the nation led by ex-Sooner QB Caleb Williams. He's accounted for 40 TDs so far this season and nearly 4,000 total yards. The Irish have been very impressive since early in the year, losing just 1 of their last 9 games. They would love to spoil USC's season and give Marcus Freeman a 9-win regular season to start his tenure at head coach in South Bend. Their defense has been stout, holding points to an average of 20.3 points. They'll need to have a big night if they want to slow down the USC offense. The big factor in this is the USC defense. They have been susceptible to points, but lead the nation with a STAGGERING +20 turnover margin. The Irish are dead even on the turnover margin and have lost 11 fumbles this year. That won't cut it in this game. USC builds their Playoff resume with a win over the Irish and snap a 4-game losing streak in the series. Fight On as the Trojans win 34-28.
#9 Oregon at #21 Oregon State
The annual showdown between the Beavers and the Ducks carries a little more weight as Oregon State could potentially knock their in-state foe out of the PAC-12 Championship game. The Ducks need a win to lock in their spot. Senior transfer QB Bo Nix has been fantastic this year and is not getting enough attention as a Heisman candidate or top tier draft pick in my opinion. He came back from an injury against Washington to help the Ducks hold off Utah last week. They will need a big night from him as the Beavers rank 2nd in the conference in total defense and 25th overall. They've got home field in Corvallis, but I like the Ducks in this one. I think their offensive firepower will be too much for the Beavers to keep pace with, even with a couple of stops. Bo Nix leads Oregon to the PAC-12 Title game with a win against in-state rival Oregon State. Ducks 33, Beavers 24.
#3 Michigan at #2 Ohio State
There's never much needed to add fuel to the fire in this rivalry, but a top 3 matchup and an inside track to the College Football Playoff will do just that. The Wolverines and Buckeyes meet as unbeaten foes for just the fourth time in series history. The other historical fact to mention is that Michigan has not won in the Horseshoe since 2003. This game is tough to predict to be honest. Michigan has looked solid all season long but had a few close calls, especially last week. Ohio State has looked dominant all year but nearly stumbled last week as well and injuries have plagued many of the key weapons on this team. The defenses will be fun to watch in this one as they have to try and slow down these high-powered offenses. Michigan brings in the 4th ranked rushing offense in the country behind Junior RB Blame Corum. He's got nearly 1,500 yards on the ground to go along with his 18 TDs. He's the focal point of their offense and will set up the play action passes downfield to Ronnie Bell. Ohio State has been solid against the run this year, but gave up nearly 300 yards through the air last week to Maryland, so look for Michigan to attack the secondary with play action. On the other side, Ohio State's offense is all run through Junior QB C.J. Stroud. He's rocking a 35:4 TD to INT ratio so far this season and many of those have gone to Sophomore stud Marvin Harrison Jr. at wideout. Harrison Jr. has been uncoverable this season, catching passes for 1,037 yards and 11 TDs. Michigan's secondary is going to have a number of headaches with him. I really can't tell how dominant each of these teams are as the BIG 10 has not been extremely impressive this season but Michigan came out early and punched Ohio State in the mouth last year on their way to victory. They will need to do the same if they want to make that happen this year. I think Ohio State is looking to return the favor and I'll take the Buckeyes at home. This should be a good one! Ohio State 31, Michigan 28.
Nebraska at Iowa (The Heroes Game)
Nebraska and Iowa set up for their annual Black Friday game as the Hawkeyes look for a birth into the BIG 10 Championship. I once again am furious at the fact that despite their atrocious playing of the game, Iowa still wins games. Mostly due to the incompetencies of their opponents, but credit needs to be given where it is due. The Hawkeyes have a solid defense which keeps them involved in every game and they don't shoot themselves in the foot. They simply lie in wait until their opponent shoots themselves and take advantage of the opportunity to win. Nebraska has more than enough talent and ability to win this game and knock the Hawkeyes out of Indianapolis, but luckily for the black and gold faithful, the Huskers are the "hold my beer" program of shooting themselves at the worst possible moment. In modern college football I don't know if I've seen a program find more ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory than the Huskers. Many of those instances occur against Iowa too. I hope I'm wrong, but here's how I predict this game going. Nebraska takes a 10-7 lead with strong defensive play and a turnover in the first half. Unfortunately, the Huskers are done scoring from that point and after multiple punts in the second half Nebraska will have a golden opportunity to hand the ball to Anthony Grant and put the game on ice, potentially with another score late in the 4th. However, they'll opt to try an ill-advised pass to the double-covered Trey Palmer while the offensive line lets a 4-man pass rush through in under 2 seconds to hit Casey Thompson while throws. An Iowa linebacker takes it into Husker territory and the defense decides to have a communication breakdown resulting in a Spencer Petras touchdown pass with less than a minute on the clock that Nebraska will subsequently waste with a sack and an attempted screen pass. Again, I hope I'm wrong. I hope Mickey Joseph and crew noticed that Mohamed Ibrahim averaged 6.7 yards per carry against the Hawkeyes and Anthony Grant could do similar damage (and be the first Husker to rush for 1,000+ yards in a season since 2018) if the ball was just put into his hands with a couple of sensible blocks in front of him. I hope the defense can manage more than 1 takeaway and sack against a Hawkeye offense that ranks 130th out of 131 teams in the nation. I hope clock management and field position are taken into consideration when making decisions. As for now though, that is all just a hope. I'll be proudly donning my BEAT IOWA hat and crewneck all day tomorrow despite the result, but I've got the Hawkeyes winning 14-10. I really hope I'm wrong and I hope Purdue is able to go to the BIG 10 Championship.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Baylor at #23 Texas - The Longhorns need a win and a K-State loss to get into the Big XII Championship game. Baylor nearly knocked off TCU last week and would love to spoil the Texas season finale. I don't think they're going to be overlooked though. Hook 'Em as Texas wins 28-21.
Purdue at Indiana - The battle for the Old Oaken Bucket takes place in Bloomington as the Boilermakers and Hoosier write another chapter in their rivalry. The Boilermakers could find themselves in Indianapolis for the BIG 10 Title game with a win and Hawkeye loss. Their offense is tough to stop when O'Connell is on, so expect a big day from him. Boilermakers win 38-24.
Arizona State at Arizona - The Duel in the Dessert features two teams that don't have much to play for other than pride. The Territorial Cup is on the line in this one and Jedd Fisch is looking to get his first win in the series as HC of the Wildcats. They've lost 5 straight to the Sun Devils, but I like their chance in this one. Neither team has much defense, so expect a good amount of points. Wildcats win at home 40-33.
#18 UCLA at Cal - The Bruins fell short of their PAC-12 Title game chances in the battle for LA last week, but can finish the regular season with 9 wins and get a good bowl game slot with a victory here. Cal is looking to build momentum for next year and there's potential Wilcox could get fired as he's on the hot seat. DTR should have a big game in this one as UCLA wins 38-21.
Wyoming at Fresno State - There's not anything big on the line in this one, but the Cowboys fell to the Broncos last week by just 3. If you're betting I'd take Wyoming to beat the 15 point spread in this one. The Bulldogs have been susceptible to the run game and Titus Swen for Wyoming averages 5.3 yards per carry. Closer than the experts think but Fresno State holds on 30-21.
Georgia Tech at Georgia - The Ramblin' Wreck need a win to get bowl eligibility. Unfortunately it must come against the #1 team in the nation. Bulldogs roll in this one 45-10.
Memphis at SMU - This will just be a fun game to watch for the offensive firepower. If you're betting I'd take the over. Ponies beat the Tigers 48-42.
Michigan State at #11 Penn State - The Spartans have multiple players charged from the incident at Michigan and that will be a big distraction. They lost the Old Brass Spittoon to Indiana last week and their season is all but over. Nittany Lions win big, get the Land Grant Trohpy and get a nice bowl slot. Penn State 35, Michigan State 14.
#5 LSU at Texas A&M - Just a few years removed from the 7 OT thriller, this rivalry game doesn't have much zest to it this year. A&M has been the biggest disappointment of 2022. They could play spoiler to the Tigers, but this team doesn't have it. Tigers big with a 30-14 win.
#10 Tennessee at Vanderbilt - The Vols stumbled big against South Carolina last week and lost star QB Hendon Hooker in the process. Vanderbilt upset Florida and is one win away from their first bowl game since 2018. Motivation is key in this one and although I've been touting Rocky Top all year long they better watch themselves in this game. Give me the Commodores on Rivalry weekend with a 27-24 stunner.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech - The Sooners clinched bowl eligibility last week but I still don't trust them in many games. The Red Raiders have been good at home separate of the Baylor game so Guns Up! Texas Tech finishes their regular season strong with a 30-24 victory over the Sooners. Their first win in the series since 2011.
Thanks for reading all my Rivalry Week Predictions and I hope you've all had a great Thanksgiving. GO BIG RED and BEAT IOWA!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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