Welcome to Week 11 of College Football! This is always a unique point in the season where things are just a few weeks from wrapping up the season but still so much to decide. We had a lot of big shakeups last week with the CFB Playoff Rankings, but there's potential for more upsets this week. Let's dive right in and look at the big games to watch for Week 11.
Week 10 Record: 7 - 10
Overall Record: 101 - 48
Wisconsin at Iowa
The Badgers and Hawkeyes meet in battle for a bronze Cow. This game has potential for some BIG 10 Championship game implications, but even with a win both teams will need some help by Illinois stumbling. Regardless, this classic midwestern matchup should feature rugged defense and tire-fire offense led by a semi-strong ground game. Both teams have had numerous struggles on offense this year but with a heavy dose of rushing attack both defenses should know what to expect. Surprisingly though, the Hawkeyes' offense has the 119th ranked rushing attack this year, so even that has fallen with their woes. Their defense will keep things tight, but I don't think they have enough boost to finish off the Badgers. Wisconsin wins in Iowa City 24-17.
#9 Alabama at #11 Ole Miss
The Alabama Crimson Tide have lost 2 regular season games for the first time since 2019 and are essentially eliminated from the College Football Playoffs this season. They travel to the Grove to take on the Rebels today who have stumbled a bit, but Lane Kiffin's squad has been on the right side of a majority of their close games. The offensive weapons for Ole Miss, RB Quinshon Judkins and WR Jonathan Mingo need to be the focus in this game. They are some of the best athletes in this game and can be the difference-makers against an angry Alabama defense. On the flip side, I don't see many issues for the Bama offense in this one. They woke up in the second half against LSU, scoring 25 points after halftime. However, their defense continues to give up big chunk plays at the wrong time this season. They need to step up in this one and I think they will. Roll Tide as they win 36-27.
#22 UCF at #17 Tulane
The Green Wave were so close to hosting College Gameday, but Austin, Texas got the nod instead. Although many are ignoring the 8-1 boys from New Orleans, the Knights of UCF aren't taking anything for granted. Statistically these teams are nearly identical, so this is where I dig deep and find a hidden stat that could break this game open. One interesting stat is that the UCF defense has the best Red Zone Conversion rate in the country, giving up scores just 61% of the time. However, a stat going the way of the Wave is the turnover margin. UCF is -5 while Tulane is +4. Turnovers are a game breaker, and I want to see the Wave keep rolling. Plus they did their own College Gameday bit to announce their uniforms for today. Tulane wins a good one at home 31-28.
#25 Washington at #6 Oregon
A classic battle in the Pacific Northwest takes place as the Huskies look to keep pace in the PAC-12 conference. A loss here would all but eliminate them from PAC-12 Title contention, but they've lost 3 straight to the Ducks. With Bo Nix playing at a Heisman level, Autzen stadium is going to be wild tonight. Nix is responsible for 35 Touchdowns so far this season and has Oregon's offense rated #2 in the nation. Washington has a talented QB of their own with ex-Hoosier Michael Penix Jr. He's accounted for 25 TD's himself, so we could see plenty of points in this one. The Huskies have won a lot of close games this year, but they've struggled against high powered offenses and I really like Oregon at home. Ducks beat the Huskies 40-24.
#19 Kansas State at Baylor
The Wildcats stumbled against the Longhorns at home last week, which means they need some help to get into the Big XII Title game. The Horns, Bears and Wildcats are all sitting at 4-2 in conference play. Baylor has a November gauntlet to run through with K-State and TCU at home then ending on the road at Texas. These next few weeks will help a lot with who is going to end up in the Big XII Title game as TCU takes on Texas today and Baylor next week. Regardless, in this game, K-State will look to bounce back with a heavy dose of Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez. Defensively is where most of their issues came from last week as they gave up nearly twice the average amount of points they allow. Texas got out to a hot start and the Cats had to claw back into the game. If Baylor hits them with a couple of big punches early, this could slip from K-State as well. I see this being a tight game, but I like Baylor to edge it out at home. Sic 'Em as the Bears hold off the Wildcats 34-30.
Kansas at Texas Tech
Another Kansas team visits a Texas team this week as the Jayhawks take on the Red Raiders. Kansas is bowl eligible for the first time since 2008 despite losing their star QB a couple of weeks ago. The Red Raiders are just a couple games off of bowl eligibility in the first season under hometown hero Joey McGuire. This will be a fun and unique game to watch if you have the time because both offenses are sneaky explosive and can put up points. Texas Tech needs to win 2/3 to become bowl eligible and while this will be a tricky one, I think they take this one at home. Guns Up! Red Raiders 37, Jayhawks 33.
#15 North Carolina at Wake Forest
The Tar Heels keep squeezing out victories while the Demon Deacons continue to fall short the last few weeks. UNC ranks 120th in the nation in Pass Defense, so if Sam Hartman and the Wake Forest offense can wake up, they should have a field day. Defensively for Wake, they need to get pressure on Drake Maye. The Freshman sensation has 31 TDs through the air this season with just 3 picks. This should be a great QB battle and I'm still going to give my nod to Sam Hartman. Wake Forest 38, UNC 31.
#23 Florida State at Syracuse
I had probably too much hype for the Orange the last few weeks and they’ve now lost 3 straight. The ‘Noles on the other hand have won their last two after a few close losses in October. Junior QB Jordan Travis leads a dynamic offense that averages just under 34 points per game. Syracuse has struggled to slow opponents down the last few weeks, so look for FSU to have success with big plays. Seminoles win on the road 34-24.
#4 TCU at #18 Texas
Gameday is in Austin yet again as the Longhorns take on the 4th ranked Horned Frogs. TCU's offense is #1 in the Big XII and leads the nation in 60+ yard plays with 8 so far this season. The Longhorn defense is no slouch though, their linebackers fly all around the field making tackles and sitting very well in zone coverage to make things difficult for Max Duggan. Duggan never seems to waver though, he's always calm, cool and collected. TCU just knows how to win games and with Duggan leading the charge, they are tough to stop. Star wideout Quentin Johnston is questionable with an ankle injury, but there's too much talent, speed and power on this offense to be slowed down. Hypnotoad is in full effect as TCU wins a big one on the road 38-31. FROGS!!!
Nebraska at #3 Michigan
This matchup between College Football blue bloods takes place as Jim Harbaugh is looking for his first 10-0 start to a season since he was with the University of San Diego. The Huskers on the other hand are looking for a coach who can win more than 3 or 4 games in a season. This one is likely to get ugly because although the Husker defense has been playing well the last few weeks, Michigan's offense is at another level. Star RB Blake Corum has nearly 1,200 yards on the ground with 16 TDs so far this year and 6 yard per carry average. The Huskers need to gang tackle him in order to slow down the rushing attack and prevent him from running wild. On the flip side, Nebraska will be without QB Casey Thompson again. This means we are likely to see Chubba Purdy and Logan Smothers again, although I think Smothers should get the nod. He looked far more under control against Minnesota and the Huskers probably could've won the game if he had been put in sooner for the second half. Regardless, the number one goal for the Huskers is get the ball to Anthony Grant and Trey Palmer in space. They really need to ride Grant more when he's hot. Through the first two drives last week he had 12 carries for 86 yards. Until the middle of the 4th quarter he only had 5 more carries for 11 yards. USE YOUR BEST PLAYERS! Don't get your hopes too high Husker fans, we might not cover. Michigan 45, Nebraska 14. GO BIG RED!
Sidenote: The first ever Bussin' Bowl takes place as there is now a trophy from the Bussin' with the Boys podcast hosted by ex-Husker Will Compton and ex-Wolverine Taylor Lewan.
Quick Hit Predictions:
#7 LSU at Arkansas - The Tigers have a trap game today in the battle for the Golden Boot Trophy. Arkansas has fallen off the radar a bit with a 5-4 record, but with LSU coming off the Bama win and Pig Sooie motivated at home this could be closer than the Tigers want. They should get out with a W though. LSU 27, Arkansas 21. KJ Jefferson is out for Arkansas.
Oklahoma at West Virginia - The Sooners still need a win to get bowl eligibility and WVU is spiraling toward firing their head coach. Mountaineers need a spirited effort but I don’t think they have it. Boomer Sooner 41-24.
Liberty at UConn - The Huskies are just one win away from bowl eligibility under Jim Mora, but a win over Liberty today is a big ask. They will play well but I expect Liberty to walk out the victors in this one 33-17.
Maryland at #14 Penn State - A classic rivalry out east takes place as the Nittany Lions host the Terps. Maryland has looked good in games against lesser opponents, but against a defense like Penn State they will be on lockdown. Nittany Lions 35, Terrapins 14.
Louisville at #10 Clemson - The Clemson Tigers do not look great this year and there’s legitimate fears around the CFB world they could lose to Louisville at home. Although the Tigers’ offense is struggling and the Cardinals lead the nation in sacks, I don’t believe Clemson has fallen as much as people say. They need a shake up for sure and to get some new playmakers on offense, but they win this one in Death Valley 38-21.
Purdue at #21 Illinois - The Boilermakers fell quickly in the BIG 10 West ranks, and despite their surprising loss last week the Illini still have a 1 game cushion over the rest of the division. They should ground and pound this one so Illinois 27, Purdue 17.
Iowa State at Oklahoma State - Both teams had huge hype around Big XII Championship Dreams and both have fallen off drastically. The Cyclones still need a couple wins to get Bowl Eligible and The Poke are in a bad spiral. I can never predict either of these teams right but I’ll take Iowa State for no particular reason. Cyclones 30, Cowboys 28.
Appalachian State at Marshall - Both the Mountaineers and the Heard are one win away from bowl eligibility, and they have the exact same remaining schedule with Georgia Southern and Georgia State. This game is more for bragging rights, but features a solid App State offense on the road against the Heard's defense. I usually give the nod to the defense at home, but there's just something about Chase Brice with App State. Mountaineers take this one 27-24.
#1 Georgia at Mississippi State - Stetson Bennett is legit and I apologize for doubting him. The Pirate’s air raid could give some headaches, but don’t expect them to hang around for long in this game. UGA wins the battle of the Bulldogs 42-14.
Thanks for reading my gameday predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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