Happy Thanksgiving Football Fans! Today and this weekend is my favorite time of year as we have great food to eat, time with family and friends, and some of the best football we could ask for. There are some great NFL games to watch today, and College Football had the Egg Bowl last night and a full slate that starts today. This post will have my predictions on all the games you won't want to miss this weekend, but first let's give a quick recap of the tough loss in Madison for the Huskers last weekend.
The Huskers yet again found a way to let the game slip away after they failed to do anything on offense following their big 4th quarter. The Huskers haven't scored in overtime since 2014 and despite a solid performance from Chubba Purdy who made his first start of the season. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown below.
GOOD - Chubba Purdy. For a QB who has been sitting in the third string spot all season, battling injuries and taking very few practice reps, Purdy looked very good in his first start of 2023. He opened the game up with a Taylor Martinez type 55 yard TD run, then had a 58 yard pass to Jaylen Lloyd. He finished the game 15/24 (62.5%) for 169 yards with 1 TD and 1 interception on the last play of overtime that I don't blame him for. He also led the game in rushing with 102 and that aforementioned TD. There were a few throws that definitely made me nervous, but on the final drive in regulation for the Huskers he got them down into the red zone, but poor play calling didn't help him much after that. Excited to see what he can do against Iowa!
EXPECTED - Offense falling flat. On the first two drives, Nebraska racked up 151 yards with two big play touchdowns. Throughout the rest of the game and in overtime, the Huskers amassed just 213 total yards and 0 points. Emmett Johnson and Anthony Grant split touches, with 13 and 12 respectively, but neither were used to the level they should be. A few dropped passes and very poor blocking on the perimeter led to the offense stalling out quite quickly after the first quarter.
BAD - Game/Clock Management. Against Maryland, the Huskers could have won the game with a field goal and tried to go for a touchdown. Against Wisconsin, the Huskers could have won with a touchdown and went for a field goal. Chubba Purdy ran the ball down inside the Badger 30 yard line with about 90 seconds left and the Huskers didn't use one of their 3 timeouts until about 20 seconds left in the game. Absolutely HORRIBLE game and clock management by Matt Rhule over the last couple weeks, and I'll throw it back to the game management in Minnesota because we saw this issue at the beginning of the season. This is an issue that needs to be fixed immediately because the Huskers have loss 3 games due to poor game/clock management and that's all on Matt Rhule.
Week 12 Record: 17 - 5
Overall Record: 165 - 55
Rivalry Week Predictions:
UTSA at #23 Tulane
The Roadrunners and the Green Wave square off in an American Conference duel with major implications on post season opportunities. Both teams are sitting at 7-0 in conference and the winner guarantees their spot in the conference title game. SMU is likely to await the winner as long as they take care of business against Navy. For the Roadrunners, they've won 7 straight and are averaging 34.1 points per game in that span. They're led by Senior QB, Frank Harris. He has yet to throw a pick in the month of November and only has 6 all season. His counterpart, Michael Pratt for Tulane, missed a few games early in the year, but has over 2,000 yards himself along with a 19 to 4 TD:INT ratio. It should be a good duel between these two, and the protection they have is the key factor to watch. UTSA ranks 5th in the nation with 39 sacks so far this season and Tulane isn't far behind with 30. Both teams also rank close with 20 sacks given up by UTSA and 19 sacks given up by Tulane. This should be a fun one to watch, but I'll take Tulane playing at home in a close one. I love the Roadrunners, but the Green Wave holds them off for a 31-28 victory.
Texas Tech at #7 Texas
Despite numerous close calls, the Longhorns still have just 1 loss on the year from the Red River Rivalry. Texas will seal a Big XII Championship appearance in their final season as a conference member with a win, but don't discount the Red Raiders too quickly. Texas Tech as won 3 straight games, all 3 points or less. They've lost a few one score games, but would love nothing more than to knock off the rival Longhorns. I've been very high on this team for a few reasons. They've bought in well to 2nd year Head Coach Joey McGuire, and they have a powerful ground game with Tahj Brooks. Texas ranks 5th in rush defense on the year, allowing just 82 yards per game. Brooks has a big challenge ahead of him and will need some helpful breaks to win this game. The Red Raiders are -6 with turnovers this year, so they need a clean game of football to win this. Rivalry games are different though, and a win against Texas would be big for Texas Tech as they look to step into one of those top spots of the conference next year. I've been waiting for Texas to lose but I may have to wait one more week. I hope I'm wrong, but Texas gets revenge for last year with a 33-21 victory.
#16 Oregon State at #6 Oregon (The Civil War)
The Beavers and Ducks meet for the final time (scheduled) as PAC-12 opponents. Oregon joins my Huskers in the BIG 10 next year and the Beavers will remain in what I have dubbed the 2-PAC with Washington State. This is one of the biggest games of the weekend as there's not just bragging rights on the line, but also Oregon's shot at the College Football Playoffs. The Beavers are going to ground and pound with Damien Martinez, hoping to lead to a deadly play action attack for DJ Uaigalelei. Their defense is not easy to move on as they rank 29th in total defense. The Ducks rank 16th (right behind Nebraska) and this unit often gets overlooked because of the tremendous success of the offense. Bo Nix is my Heisman favorite and he has this offense looking like the best in the nation. Their lowest point total this season was 33 in the loss against Washington, however, the Beavers actually rank 2nd in red zone efficiency scoring on 97.5% red zone drives. I'm excited to watch this game and I've got Oregon winning 31-27 behind a Heisman caliber performance from Bo Nix.
Texas A&M at #14 LSU ($)
The Tigers have a Heisman player of their own in Jayden Daniels, who is arguably the best competition to Bo Nix. Texas A&M has been stout on defense for most of this season, but LSU's offense is not an easy one to slow down. Daniels has just under 3,600 yards passing with 35 TDs and just 4 picks. He's also added another 1,014 yards and 10 TDs on the ground as the Tigers' leading rusher. I think they will have too much offense for the Aggies to keep up with and the Tigers take care of this one 33-21.
#8 Alabama at Auburn (The Iron Bowl) ($)
The Tide are ROLLIN' since that Week 2 loss to Texas at home, and could find their way into another playoff birth with a couple more wins. It starts against their arch rival, the Auburn Tigers. An Auburn team that lost at home last week to New Mexico State as a 26 point favorite (and made me miss a very nice payout on my sports bet). Not that I'm a vengeful person or anything, but I do think Bama should put up 50 in this game. Jalen Milroe should have another big day and start building his Heisman case for next year. Roll Tide as they prep for Georgia in the SEC Championship with a 40-14 tune up game against Auburn.
#15 Arizona at Arizona State (Duel in the Dessert: Battle for the Territorial Cup)
The Wildcats have been my team to watch this season and with 5 straight wins (4 against ranked opponents), they are a dangerous team. Head Coach Jedd Fisch really has this team playing well and it all runs through redshirt freshman QB, Noah Fifita. He took over mid-season and has posted nearly 2,000 passing yards with 18 TDs and just 4 picks since. His favorite target is 6'5 Sophomore Tetairoa McMillan who has 976 yards and 9 TDs for the Wildcats. The Sun Devils have struggled in their first season under Kenny Dillingham, but they've had a few flashes with a big win against UCLA a couple weeks ago. It's a rivalry, so they'll play tough, but Beardown and give me the Wildcats in a 34-20 victory.
Washington State at #4 Washington (The Apple Cup)
The Cougars are in serious danger of not going bowling after starting 4-0 this season, and they only way they can get to the post season is by upsetting their arch rivals on the road who are ranked #4 in the nation. The Huskies finally broke into the top 4 after jumping Florida State after their win against Oregon State on the road. Michael Penix Jr. is also in the Heisman conversations, and he'll look to put up big numbers against a Wazzu defense that ranks 94th in total defense. He'll be slinging it like usual, but also watch for Junior RB Dillon Johnson to have a big game for the Huskies. He was just 11 yards short of his 3rd straight 100+ yard game, so I think he runs wild in this one. Washington inches closer to they playoffs and wins the final Apple Cup as they are also moving to the BIG 10 and leaving Wazzu behind in the 2-PAC. Huskies 38, Cougars 20.
#5 Florida State at Florida (Sunshine Showdown)
The 'Noles have lost star QB Jordan Travis for the season after a brutal leg injury last week, so the reigns are passed to Junior Tate Rodemaker. He'll make his first start on the road, in the Swamp, against a nasty Florida Team that nearly knocked off Missouri last week. The Gators have not had a stellar season, and Billy Napier's seat is certainly getting warm. However, ending Florida State's 17-game win streak and playoff hopes all in one day could cool things down a bit. They've lost 4 straight, but have battled well in each of those games, typically losing them late in the game. Ex-Badger QB Graham Mertz has renewed his career int he swamp, throwing for 2,903 yards with a fantastic 20:3 TD to INT ratio. He's got a number of weapons around him, and this team can put up more points than you think. Tate Rodemaker will need to play well, but the Seminole defense is my key factor. They need to pressure Graham Mertz and try to force turnovers. Mizzou was gashed by big plays last week, so look for them to get out to space quick. This could be a close one, but I still like Florida State to remain unbeaten. Seminoles win a tight one on the road and finish a perfect regular season with a 27-24 victory.
#24 Clemson at South Carolina
The Tigers are back in the rankings after knocking off North Carolina last week, and now they turn their sights onto their rival South Carolina. The Gamecocks pulled off a 1 point victory to upset Clemson last year, but other than that this series has been dominated by the Tigers over the past decade. Both squads ar riding a 3-game win streak, but the Gamecocks are still in need of 1 more to go bowling. Statistically, the two QBs are very similar, but Rattler has more yards. This is when I start looking at some hidden stats and one thing I found that could be a factor in this game is penalties. South Carolina averages 7.5 penalties and almost 60 yards per game, which is double Clemson. In a rivalry game where things get chippy, penalties will be a big factor and I like Clemson to keep their cool. Tigers win on the road 26-21.
North Carolina at #22 NC State
The Tar Heels' season has fallen apart since mid-October, but a win against their in-state rival to get to 9 wins is always a strong way to finish. The Wolfpack are riding a 4-game win streak, especially since Brennan Armstrong has been playing better. He's taken back over the starting reigns from MJ Morris and has 6 TDs (3 passing and 3 rushing) over the past two games. North Carolina's offense is all run through Drake Maye, who has nearly 3,400 yards with 22 TDs and just 7 picks. Unfortunately, his defense doesn't help much as they give up 26 points per game on average. A healthy ground attack behind Sophomore RB Omarion Hampton will keep them in it, but the Wolfpack defense will force turnovers, so give me NC State at home with a 30-24 victory.
Indiana at Purdue (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)
The Boilermakers have struggled in their first season with Head Coach Troy Walters, but could end on a high note beating the rival Hoosiers for The Old Oaken Bucket, one of the oldest rivalry trophies in College Football. Both teams have lost 8 games this season, so it's really about bragging rights and the trophy. Indiana has been close in their last few games, but can never quite get over the hump. Purdue put up 49 on the Gophers two weeks ago, but typically scores around 14 in most games. The Boilermakers have won the last two in this series, but I think Indiana gets the win this year 31-21.
San Jose State at UNLV
The Spartans may be 6-5, but they are in the mix for a trip to the Mountain West Championship if they knock off the conference leading Rebels of UNLV. If the Spartans win, there will be a 3-way tie atop the conference between these two teams and whoever wins the Air Force/Boise State matchup. Both of those teams have beaten the Spartans, but they would have the win over UNLV and the Rebels have beat Air Force but not played Boise State. Certainly would be some interesting chaos to sort out, but unfortunately for San Jose State, UNLV is looking to dominate this game. They don't necessarily stand out in any major categories, but they're a very well coached and consistent team. Rebels win and move onto the Mountain West Championship with a 34-17 performance.
Northwestern at Illinois
Somehow, the Wildcats are bowl eligible after just winning 1 game last season and firing Pat Fitzgerald amid a hazing issue just a few weeks before the season. Illinois can become bowl eligible with a win at home. The crazy thing about both of these teams is that they easily could be 5-0 in their last 5 games, but couldn't quite finish them off and had some close losses. Classic BIG 10 West finish and this is a tricky game to predict. I'll give it to the home team because it seems every other BIG 10 West team will get to a bowl before Nebraska does. Illini 30, Wildcats 24.
Wisconsin at Minnesota (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)
Speaking of BIG 10 teams achieving bowl eligibility, the Gophers can book their post-season ticket, but it requires one more win against the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin earned their 6th win against the Huskers last week, but Minnesota has dropped 3 straight and have a tough task ahead of them. Despite Wisconsin not being a very dangerous team this year, the Gophers have struggled to close out games. Tanner Mordecai woke up last week against the Huskers, coming back from injury and throwing for 160 and a TD while adding another 51 on the ground. Minnesota will struggle with him and I think the Badgers take the Axe. On Wisconsin as they win 16-7.
Virginia Tech at Virginia (Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)
The Hokies have been up and down this season, but are 1 win away from a bowl game. Virginia only has 3 wins on the season, but one of those was a road win against #10 North Carolina, and they nearly pulled another upset on #10 Louisville a couple weeks ago. I have not been able to predict the Hokies very well this season but I think they have a big game in this one. Sophomore QB Kyron Drones is the man to watch. He's thrown 12 TDs with just 3 picks, and should have a big day in this rivalry. Virginia Tech wins 30-21.
#2 Ohio State at #3 Michigan (The Game)
For the final time, the BIG 10 East division will be decided by the winner of Ohio State and Michigan. These bitter rivals are looking to not only solidify their own spot in the BIG 10 Championship and the College Football Playoff, but also knock the other out of consideration. Ohio State has arguably the most talented receiver in the country with Marvin Harrison Jr., and with him averaging 17.6 yards per catch, he'll be looking to gash the formidable Michigan defense. The Wolverines may still have a few signals memorized that the Buckeyes have, but I expect this to be a closer game than the previous two. Offensively, Michigan is going to pound the rock, so Ohio State's defense will be tested. They've stuffed everyone they've played, but the team as a whole often starts slow. I'm not quite sure what direction this game will go, but it will be a grueling game and one turnover could cost a team the game. Michigan has dominated opponents all year and tend to start more quickly than the Buckeyes. Playing at home I think they win and head to another BIG 10 Championship. Wolverines 23, Buckeyes 21.
Iowa at Nebraska (The Heroes Game)
The Huskers need one win to book a bowl trip, and it comes down to the battle against Iowa in Farmaggedon. The Hawkeyes have already secured their spot in the BIG 10 Championship, and are looking for their 10th win of the season as they come to Lincoln. Nebraska has essentially pissed away victories in the last three games, but if you remember back to the beginning of the season, my prediction for the Huskers was 4-5 wins with a victory over Iowa. They snuck in a win against Illinois that I didn't expect, but other than that I've been spot on. Chubba Purdy will make his second start and he looks like the best chance for the Huskers to pull out a victory. He played great against Wisconsin, especially when throwing the ball. Not that any forward pass is a high bar between these two teams, but he was fairly accurate last week and that will be needed against a formidable Iowa defense. Neither team has an offense that can move the ball very well, but both teams do have top 15 total defenses, so this is pure, unadulterated BIG 10 West Football. Double digit points for either team is a stretch, and this game closes out as the lowest ever combined point total in college football betting history. If I could bet on this game (thanks Nebraska laws), I would take the under. With little points expected in this game, the small mistakes become very big. Iowa is great at taking advantage of those and Nebraska is great at making them. Look for penalties and turnovers to bog down the loser of this game. And for the love of all things holy in the world, FEED EMMETT JOHNSON! Hopefully the Huskers can flip the script on that because I have them winning this game 12-6 at home in Memorial. GO BIG RED, BEAT IOWA!
Quick Hit Predictions:
TCU at #13 Oklahoma - Frogs might not go bowling after a trip to the natty last year, tough rebuild in Ft. Worth. Sooners win, but need some help from BYU to go to the Big XII Championship. OU 34, TCU 17.
James Madison at Coastal Carolina - The Dukes fell in overtime to App State last week and have also decided not to take legal action against the NCAA to let them into a bowl. They finish their season with a win to get to 11-1 and we'll see them in the post season in 2024. James Madison 37, Coastal 23.
Air Force at Boise State - Winner goes to the Mountain West Championship game, and with the Falcons on a 3 game slide, the Broncos have an edge. All run game in this one, but Boise State wins 26-20.
Kentucky at #10 Lousiville - The Cardinals are set to play Florida State in the ACC Championship and Jeff Brohm is looking fantastic in his first year back home. They beat Kentucky 33-21.
BYU at #20 Oklahoma State - The Cougars need 1 more win to become bowl eligible, but with a Big XII Championship Game appearance on the line Mike Gundy will have this squad ready. Ollie Gordon II runs wild and the Pokes win it 36-28.
Iowa State at #19 Kansas State - The Powercats need some help if they want a shot at repeating their title, but should handle business against the Cyclones. Big TCU and BYU fans in Manhattan this weekend. K-State 28, ISU 10. The actual Farmmaggedon!
#1 Georgia at Georgia Tech ($) - The Ramblin' Wreck have pulled off a few upsets this season, but this would be the biggest one yet. The Yellow Jackets haven't won since 2016 though, and the last few have been pretty ugly. UGA rolls GT with a 38-10 tune up game ahead of Bama.
#18 Notre Dame at Stanford - The Irish and the Trees meet up on the Farm as ND looks to finish strong with a 9-3 record that should send them to a solid bowl game. Irish win 41-14.
Cal at UCLA - With Chip Kelly potentially on the chopping block, a win here could go a long way to giving him more time in LA. The Golden Bears are itching for a bowl game though and this one should be close. Give me Cal in the road upset 28-23.
Colorado at Utah - Coach Prime will finish out his first season against the Utes in Salt Lake City. The Buffs have had a lot of close games, but giving up 54 sacks in one season along with your QB having no pocket awareness at all does not win you many games, no matter what the Prime Effect looks like. Utes route the Buffaloes who will likely have some stories during the offseason. Utah 33, Colorado 14.
The Perfect Parlay:
1. LSU covers -11.5 against Texas A&M. The Aggies have a tough defense, but Jayden Daniels and the Bayou Bengals offense is electric. They average 46.8 points per game and while they may get a few stops, the Aggies don't have the fire power to keep up. LSU can cover 12 in this game.
2. Bama covers -13 against Auburn. I get nervous putting money down on rivalries, especially in-state ones where there's a lot of bad blood, but just looking at the stats I feel confident in this one. Bama averages 36.5 points per game and runs the ball very effectively. Auburn ranks 80th against the run and gave up 213 on the ground the New Mexico State at home last week. Bama wins by two TDs easy.
3. Georgia covers -24 against Georgia Tech. Again, this week was tough to make bets on with all the rivalry games, but the Yellow Jackets rank 104th in scoring defense, giving up 30.5 points per game and the Bulldogs are healthy and rolling. The'll put up big points in this one.
Thanks for reading my Rivalry Week Predictions and enjoy all the great football this holiday weekend. GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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