Week 4 Predictions

      Happy Friday Football friends! We've reached Week 4 of the College Football Season and you get my predictions a day early as the Huskers host a Friday Night Lights game against BIG 10 foe Illinois. This is the first ranked vs ranked matchup at Memorial Stadium since the 2013 UCLA game where Nebraska wore the black, tire-track uniforms. I attended that game and watched Bruins QB Brett Hundly lead a second half comeback and score 28 points in the 3rd quarter to win 41-21. The Huskers and Illini are not the only ranked matchup though, so check out all my predictions below and enjoy a full weekend of football. I had a solid bounce back week after a tricky week 2, so let's continue the trend with week 4.

Week 3 Record: 11 - 4

Overall Record: 38 - 16

Week 4 Predictions:

Kansas at West Virginia

     Both the Jayhawks and Mountaineers have struggled early in the 2024 season after a lot of off season hype. I'm not saying I called it, but I did kind of call it in my preseason predictions. Jaylon Daniels has stayed healthy through three games, but has not looked great, throwing 6 picks, including 2 last week against UNLV without a TD and just 50% completion rating. On the other side, Garrett Green has been a little better with 5 TDs and 2 picks on the year, but his defense has been unable to hold teams back, so even 31.7 points per game isn't cutting it right now. My key to victory lies with the running backs. I feel that both Devin Neal and CJ Donaldson Jr. have been under utilized by both teams. They are averaging just 15 carries per game, yet Neal runs for 7.4 yards per carry and Donaldson runs for 5.5 yards per carry. If the offensive coordinators can get their backs involved and control the ground game, they will win this game. I'll take West Virginia at home, but this one should be tight. Mountaineers win 31-28.

Virginia at Coastal Carolina

     The Chants are primed to chase after that G5 Playoff Bid, and a final non-conference game against ACC rep Virginia would be a helpful mark on the resume. Former Husker OC Tim Beck has the Teal team rolling as Sophomores Ethan Vasko (QB) and Christian Washington (RB) have been a dynamic duo to spark things up in Conway. Washington is a powerful runner who averages 4.7 yards per carry and has 4 TDs on the year thus far. This is complimented well by Vasko's dual threat ability and keeps plays alive with his legs. He's only been sacked once this season and has racked up 190 yards on the ground so far this season. Virginia QB Anthony Colandera has nearly 1,000 yards passing already, but has thrown two picks in each of the last two games. I think both teams will put up some points, but look for Coastal to pull away with their RPOs and dual threat QB. Chants win 34-24.

Georgia Tech at #19 Louisville

     The Cardinals have yet to play a worthy opponent this season, but coming out of they BYE week they host the Ramblin' Wreck for an ACC showdown. Georgia Tech has been in the spotlight early and often this season with the opening win in Dublin over Florida State, but did fall to Syracuse a couple weeks ago. QB Hanes King has thrown for 962 yards with 6 TDs and just 1 pick so far this season. His Cardinal counterpart, Tyler Shough, will be looking to put up big numbers as well since he's thrown for nearly 600 yards and 6 TDs through two games. The Cardinals did reach the ACC Championship last year, and I anticipate Jeff Brohm keeping this team at a high level. Georgia Tech gave up 381 yards and 4 TDs passing to Kyle McCord against Syracuse, and this could end up to be a similar game. Give me the Cards at home with a deadly passing attack to win 35-27.

NC State at #21 Clemson

     The Wolfpack are looking to make a name for themselves again after suffering a 51-10 beat down at the hands of Tennessee in week 2. Clemson had a week off after demolishing App State and would love to get the ACC Championship goals back in focus with a September conference win at home. I think the Clemson defense comes out swinging with some blitzes at Grayson McCall, forcing turnovers and giving Cade Klubnik a short field to work with. Let Phil Mafah loose because they saw the Vols rack up 249 rushing yards and this game is over by the third quarter at the latest. Give me the Tigers to go out and prove a point. Clemson wins 34-14.

#12 Utah at #14 Oklahoma State

     The Utes get their first official Big XII Conference game in Stillwater as they take on the Pokes for a top 15 matchup. Cam Rising's status is still in question for this game, which tips things heavily in favor of Oklahoma State. The line from Vegas moved 5 points overnight from Wednesday to Thursday with Utah originally being favored by -2.5 and are now the underdog at +2.5. The defensive game plan for Utah is simple no matter what, shut down Ollie Gordon. He has not looked great in the early parts of 2024, just a 3.5 yard per carry average on 216 yards and 4 TDs. This would be a good game for him to break out in, but the Utes are allowing just 109 yards per game on the ground this season and are traditionally one of the better defenses in college football. Oklahoma State has a much more manageable schedule after the next two weeks, but getting through Utah and KState without a loss will be tough. I am struggling to pick a winner for this one, but give me the Pokes at home. I don't fully trust Utah without Cam Rising and this seems like the game Oklahoma State needs to show they are the favorite in the Big XII despite the newcomers. Pokes 26, Utes 24.

TCU at SMU (Battle for the Iron Skillet)

     A frying pan is on the line as the Horned Frogs and the Mustangs meet for their Dallas/Fort Worth Rivalry. I'll eat my words here and say that SMU has not looked like the team I predicted to take the ACC by storm and get to the playoffs. Those opportunities are still ahead of them as conference play has yet to begin on their schedule, but an abysmal offense has them 42nd in scoring offense after ranking 8th a year ago. Preston Stone has not looked comfortable at QB this year, and the battle for the starting spot will continue with Sophomore QB Kevin Jennings. For the Frogs, they lost a stunner last week as KJ Jefferson and the UCF Knights led a drive to score and win the game with just seconds left. Sophomore QB Josh Hoover has looked great with over 1,000 yards, 8 TDs and 0 picks, but Sonny Dike's defense is giving up over 310 yards per game. He has faired well against his old team though, and I think Sonny. Dikes continues his winning streak in the rivalry with 5 straight. The first two with SMU and now a third in a row with TCU. Plus, they just dropped some serious smack talk on Twitter about SMU and the ACC for putting this game on the CW. Frogs win 37-33. Riff Ram Bah Zoo, Give 'Em Hell TCU!

#11 USC at #18 Michigan

     A classic Rose Bowl matchup of the olden days now takes place in Ann Arbor as a conference matchup. The Trojans are welcomed to their first BIG 10 conference game by walking into the Big House to square off against the defending National Champs. Michigan has looked more like a shell of that National Championship team though, and are making a switch at QB following the poor performances by Davis Warren. Junior Alex Orji will now take over and a run heavy attack should follow. Orji has only thrown 7 passes in his entire career at Michigan, so look for USC's secondary to disguise lots of coverages and bring extra blitzers in passing situations. Michigan RB Donovan Edwards was primed as a potential Heisman candidate after his performance against Washington last season, and being added to the cover of College Football 25. However, fellow Senior RB Kalel Mullins has been the star, averaging 7.5 yards per carry and has rushed for 120 yards more than Edwards on the same number of carries. All of this goes up against a much improved USC defense that currently ranks 33rd nationally against the run, as opposed to their 119th ranking in that category a year ago. The Trojans are a much stronger team than anticipated on the defensive side of the ball, and their offense hasn't lost much of a step without current Chicago Bear, Caleb Williams. Miller Moss has taken over with great command and efficiency, completing 72.7% of his passes for 607 yards and 2 TDs. He has a tremendous amount of weapons to throw to and I don't think the Michigan offense can keep pace. Moss will certainly be challenged against the Wolverine defense, but he throws the ball under 3 seconds from the snap on average, not allowing much time for opposing teams to pressure him. Michigan will try to make this look like a rugged BIG 10 game, but I like the Trojans on the road to score some points. Fight On as USC wins 27-21.

#8 Miami at South Florida

     The Hurricanes look to continue the storm as they travel North to take on the Bulls in Tampa. These might be the two best teams in the state of Florida, and two of the most dynamic QBs in college football square off with Cam Ward and Byron Brown. Cam Ward is already responsible for 12 TDs this season, but the competition has been lackluster at best. The Bulls provide a new challenge for the Canes as they average nearly 425 yards per game on offense. They gave Alabama headaches for the first three quarters after ultimately losing 42-16. This USF Bulls team is not an easy one to tangle with, but I think Miami's defensive line could be the difference maker. The 'Canes have 12 sacks through their first 3 games, and will look to force Brown into some erratic throws. Miami's secondary also has 6 picks on the season, so turnovers will be important in this one. I think we could see a good amount of points in this game, but give me the Hurricanes in a 38-28 victory.

Iowa at Minnesota (Battle for the Floyd of Rosedale)

     A Bronze Pig is up for grabs as the Hawkeyes travel north to take on the Golden Gophers in Minneapolis. The Gophers have shut out both Rhode Island and Nevada since missing the game-winning field goal at home against North Carolina in the opener. Iowa lost on a last second field goal to Iowa State, but otherwise have handled their opponents as well. Defense has been solid as always for the Hawkeyes, but the offense continues to have issues. Cade McNamara has struggled at QB despite good help from RB Kaleb Johnson and the running game. Minnesota's offense hasn't had a lot of flash either, so this is not a bad game to bet the unders. This one is always a tough one to pick, but I'll go with the Gophers to continue their momentum from last year's win. Minnesota 13, Iowa 10.

#6 Tennessee at #15 Oklahoma

     The Sooners get to host for their first action in the SEC, but they draw the red hot Volunteers and their top ranked offense. Ex-Sooner QB and OC Josh Heupel would love nothing more than to blow the doors off Oklahoma as he was originally the coach in waiting behind Bob Stoops. He's got a QB now in Freshman Nico Iamaleava who's completing 71.6% of his passes with 6 TDs and 2 picks. Oklahoma's defense will be looking for takeaways, and that stadium in Norman will be rocking. This game is really about keeping pace though, and Sooner QB Jackson Arnold has a big task ahead of him for that to occur. The Sooners have been a bit sluggish on offense in the last couple games, but did start to wake up more against Tulane. This could be an offensive shootout, but I like Josh Heupel to get revenge and rack up the points with the Vols. Tennessee spoils Oklahoma's SEC debut with a 42-24 trounce.

Michigan State at Boston College

     The Eagles fell out of the rankings after a tough road loss to Mizzou, but have a great bounce back game against the Spartans from Michigan State. This BIG 10/ACC matchup is one of two on the day and this one tips in favor of the ACC. Michigan State did pull off a win against Maryland on the road in week 2, but there's still a lot we haven't seen from this team. Aidan Chiles has been very mediocre with a 56.8% completion rate and 4 picks to go along with his 4 TDs. Boston College has a defense that held the high-scoring Tigers to just 27 and QB Thomas Castellanos is one of the best players you haven't been watching in college football. Wrap all that together in a Red Bandana for their annual Red Bandana game tradition and I've got the Eagles at home in this one. Boston College 31, Michigan State 24.

#13 Kansas State at BYU

     The Wildcats are quietly working their way toward the top 12 in rankings and the top of the Big XII. They absolutely pummeled Arizona last week, winning 31-7 at home. These two teams haven't met since LaVell Edwards' name was in the program rather than on the stadium, so it's a clean slate as conference foes. BYU is a tricky road test as the Cougars are 3-0 with a very stout defense. They're currently ranked 13th in total defense while the Wildcats are at 64th. I imagine those two numbers will come closer together and likely flip as the season moves along, but never underestimate a night game in Provo, Utah. The Wildcats have a deadly rushing attack led by QB Avery Johnson and RBs DJ Giddens and ex-Buffalo Dylan Edwards. The three have combined for 650 yards this season with averages of 6.6, 6.7 and 9.2 yards per carry respectively. BYU likes to air it out more, but might find that's hard to do with a K-State defense that has recored 10 sacks already this season. They love to put pressure on the QB and will flex their defensive muscles again. This will be a fun game to keep an eye on Saturday night, but give me Kansas State in a close on on the road. Wildcats win 23-17.

Missouri Baptist University at Peru State

Typically as the Broadcaster for this matchup, I wouldn't make a prediction on it, but given that I'm Broadcasting on behalf of the Bobcats, I don't mind throwing some flowers their way. They won this road matchup a year ago 43-32 and are looking to bounce back from a brutal loss last week at MidAmerican Nazarene. MBU is 2-1 on the season and comes into the Oak Bowl with back to back wins over Heart of America Conference opponents. The Bobcats won't be looking to join that list, and with an average of 220 yards per game on the ground given up by the Spartans, let's cheer for a Bobcats Victory on Saturday night. If you'd like to listen to my call on the live stream while you watch the other games, use this link and GO BOBCATS! Peru State 37, Missouri Baptist 24.

#24 Illinois at #22 Nebraska

     Conference play is upon us and the Huskers open with what will likely be a true BIG 10 style game for some Friday Night Lights. As alluded to in my opener, the Huskers are hosting their first ranked vs ranked matchup since the Pelini days against UCLA in 2013. The Illini come in at 3-0 to match the Huskers with a rugged defense that has allowed just 26 points through 3 games. They are very opportunistic and are tied for 2nd in the nation with a +8 turnover margin. Illinois also blitzes as the 8th highest rate in the nation, so look for them to put pressure on Dylan Raiola early and often. The Huskers wideouts will need to get separation early in their routes to give Raiola the best chance to throw the ball and not take sacks. Establishing the run is necessary as always, but will be an important boost for Dylan Raiola and his ability to withstand some of the pressure Illinois will send after him. Defensively for the Huskers, Pat Bryant is the number one focus. He's racked up 235 yards on just 15 catches with 4 TDs. The Blackshirts' secondary will have their hands full with him alone, not to mention Senior wideout Zakhari Franklin on the other side. Luke Altmeyer is completing just under 70% of his passes thus far, a near 6% boost from last season. He's got 647 yards with 6 TDs and no picks. Nebraska needs to get pressure on him because if not, big chunk plays will be open for the taking. This will be the third night game in a row and the 400th consecutive sellout for the Huskers at Memorial Stadium. The best fans in College Football will be rocking and create a very tough atmosphere the defense can feed off of. Turnovers and QB pressure will win this game, so get loud Husker fans, this one will be a show. Huskers 23, Illini 17.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Stanford at Syracuse - The Tree's play their first ACC Conference game in the Orange Dome as Kyle McCord and the 'Cuse host them from across the country. Give me the fruit in this one, Kyle McCord lights them up. Syracuse 33, Stanford 21.

Flordia at Mississippi State - This could be a battle for the low spot in SEC country, and I don't like either teams' chances. Someone has to win though, and given that Florida has very little to play for with Billy Napier seemingly ready to be sent out the door, I'll take the home team. Bulldogs win 28-24.

Rutgers at Virginia Tech - The other BIG 10/ACC game this week features the ground pounding Scarlet Knights against the home Hokies. Lane Stadium is not an easy place to win, but I like Rutgers with star RB Kyle Monangai toting the pill. He's averaging 8.1 yards per carry and VT is ranked 113th in rush defense so far this season. Scarlet Knights even it out for the BIG 10 with a 30-17 win.

UCLA at #16 LSU - The Bruins looked awful last week against Indiana, and I've talked about how they have more than 22,000 miles of travel this season as a team. Give me the Tigers in the Bayou to pour it on some more as they win 38-14.

Arkansas at Auburn - Neither of these teams have really done much to stand out early and each lost a game they should've won. I like the Hogs' rushing attack more than I like Peyton Thorne at QB, so Woo Pig Sooie as Arkansas wins it 26-21.

Arizona State at Texas Tech - A Big XII shootout is set to take place in Lubbock as the Sun Devils take on the Red Raiders. Neither team has much of a defense, and two very good running backs command these offensive attacks. I'll take Arizona State because they seem to be the improved team in 2024. Sun Devils over the Red Raiders 44-38.

Northwestern at Washington - A new purple team has entered the BIG 10 as Washington hosts Northwestern for their first battle in the new conference. This is the conference opener you want if you're Washington, and they should take advantage as Northwestern is still building an identity. Dubs with the W 26-10 in Seattle.

Cal at Florida State - If you've been on football Twitter at all this week you've seen all the smack talk and memes from the Golden Bears to the Seminoles. Normally I'd say this type of stuff would motivate a team, but I'm not sure anything could motivate Florida State. They've been a mess and Justin Wilcox coaches a good program at Cal. Give me the Golden Bears on the road mostly because I want the Twitter fun to continue. Cal 28, FSU 21.

Baylor at Colorado - I'm not necessarily sure what we all did to deserve Baylor and Colorado in the prime time slot on FOX, but this is what we've got. The Bear's haven't shown much this year due to their opponents, but did hang around with the Utes, only losing by 11. I attribute most of that to Cam Rising not playing much, so give me Colorado and the Prime Time Buffs. Too many weapons, but hopefully Baylor makes some plays. Colorado 37, Baylor 20.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Coastal Carolina ML over Virginia. The Chants are home underdogs and as mentioned above, their offense has a lot of weapons. Virginia's defense has vulnerabilities and I think Tim Beck will take advantage. Give me the Fighting Chanticleers to win outright.

2. Rutgers ML over Virginia Tech. I guess I'm calling my shot against the state of Virginia this week, but I think the ground game of Rutgers will roll the Hokies. They're a road underdog, but I'd bet on them to win outright.

3. Death, taxes and Ole Miss covering lots of points this season. The Rebels host Georgia Southern, who have shown they can move the ball on some teams, but even at -36.5, I like the cover. This offense cannot be stopped, and a G5 team is not going to be the exception. Rebels by a million, or at least 40.

Thanks for reading my Week 4 Predictions! I hope you have a fantastic football weekend and GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando