Week 5 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 5 of College Football! We've got a fantastic slate of games this week including the much anticipated Georgia and Bama showdown. Before we get to all the games, I've finally collected all my thoughts on the Huskers' home loss to Illinois, so I'll break down that game with my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories below. Hopefully they can turn things around quick. Read on and enjoy your College Football Weekend!

     The Huskers fell to Illinois in Overtime last Friday night at Memorial Stadium as they hosted their 400th consecutive sellout crowd. Despite another great performance from Dylan Raiola, the Nebraska offense faltered late and wound up with a 3rd and 42 during the Overtime period. This breakdown will highlight the GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD things I took away from the game.

GOOD - John Bullock and Huskers' third down efficiency. Starting with the offense, I am excited about the increased efficiency on third down. The Huskers went 8/15 (53.3%) on third down against the Illini, and currently rank 18th in the nation with a 50.9% conversion rate on the season. This is the Huskers' highest ranking and conversion rate since ranking 33rd in 2016 with a conversion rate of 43.9%. This stat will certainly help the Huskers win games this season if they can keep it at or near the current level. Another factor in winning games is the fantastic play of John Bullock. The Senior Linebacker is one of the Blackshirts you probably don't list off when you talk about players you know off the top of your head from this defense, but he will be a household name by the end of the year. He currently leads the team in tackles with 25 and has 2 sacks to his name this year with 3 pass deflections and 1 forced fumble. He was all over the field against Illinois and is very fun to watch. The defense as a whole struggled on the night, but I loved the game play I saw from John Bullock. Watch #5 on the Husker Defense this week and just enjoy some great football plays.

EXPECTED - A tough game and more Husker Special Teams trouble. You can expand the conference all you want, the old BIG 10 West matchups will still result in a rugged, grind-it-out game. Illinois always has tough teams, and they played very hard in this one. Lots of hustle to the ball, especially to shut down the Huskers run game, and fabulous downfield blocking to open up space for their own. Illinois will give a lot of teams headaches this season and the Huskers need to be prepared for four full quarters of football with the rest of their BIG 10 games. Combine that with the constant issue of not having a competent special teams unit or a kicker that's useful beyond an extra point, and you're looking at some rough games ahead. I don't know how the Huskers haven't found a kicker since I was in College with Drew Brown, but this is absurd. Special Teams continues to lose games for this program, and will continue to until a kicker is found and return blocking is set up better. There has to be a kicker in the portal somewhere.

BAD - Luke Altmeyer and the Husker Overtime. When I reference Luke Altmeyer in this category, I mean it in the context of him being a BAD MAN for opposing defenses. He was absolutely stellar against the Blackshirts (much to my dismay) and has been very impressive all season long. Altmeyer finished the game with a 21/27 mark on passes for 215 yards and 4 TDs. He found 9 different receivers and picked apart the Husker secondary. Opposing teams need to put pressure on him if they don't want a similar fate to my Huskers. Speaking of fate, it must be fated that the Huskers will completely forget how to play football in Overtime. As mentioned before, this was a grind it out game, but overtime really went array quickly. The Blackshirts were gashed on the opening play and scored on the following. Then the Husker offense nearly went all the way back to the opposite 25 yard line as they continue the trend of rough overtime games. In the last decade the huskers still have yet to score a point, move the chains for a first time or even amass positive yards following the end of regulation. Would love to see this trend break sooner rather than later.

Week 4 Record: 12 - 11

Overall Record: 50 - 27

Week 5 Predictions:

Maryland at Indiana

The Terps and the Hoosiers square off for a BIG 10 battle in Bloomington, Indiana. The Terps had a stumble against Michigan State a couple of weeks ago, but Indiana has yet to stumble this season. New Head Coach Curt Cignetti has brought new life to this program and the Hoosiers have rolled over everyone in their way thus far. Their BIG 10 foes won't be as easy, but transfer QB Kurtis Rourke doesn't seem to mind the challenge. He's accounted for over 1,000 pass yards with 8 TDs and 0 picks. He's completing 75.5% of his passes and is leading the 11th ranked Total Offense. Maryland's QB Billy Edwards Jr. has 8 TDs as well with 2 picks to go along with his 1,155 yards passing. This might be closer than some of the other Hoosier games we've seen, but I like them to win 35-24 at home.

#20 Oklahoma State at #23 Kansas State

     Both the Pokes and the Wildcats got kicked from teams in Utah last week as they come into this game looking to bounce back. Oklahoma State has been a little flat this season, especially with such an experienced offense. Alan Bowman was benched at one point last week against Utah, and Ollie Gordon has less than 300 yards rushing this season. Kansas State has their own problems on offense as they've been unable to pass the ball with Avery Johnson. The run game has been effective, but after last week's blowout loss to BYU there's still a lot that needs to be figured out. I really don't know how each of these teams will respond, but I suppose I'll take the home team who runs the ball. K-State 27, Oklahoma State 21.

#15 Louisville at #16 Notre Dame

     The Cardinals travel to South Bend as the Irish look to notch a quality win in their season. Louisville won this game a year ago 33-20, and they've been beating up on everyone on their schedule thus far. They haven't played much competition this year, but their offense looks as deadly as ever under 2nd year coach Jeff Brohm. The Irish have looked strong since their loss to Northern Illinois, especially in the ground game with Jeremiyah Love rushing for 7.4 yards per carry. Their defense should slow down the Cardinals in this game, but can Riley Leonard do enough to get their offense moving? This is a tricky game to predict without knowing much about Louisville against tougher competition, so I'll give the nod to Notre Dame wanting to get revenge from last year. Irish win 28-26.

Washington State at #25 Boise State

     The Broncos are looking to claim the G5 Playoff bid while the Cougars are looking to get an at large bid. QB John Mateer for Wazzu has been fun to watch this season, and will look to continue his success in this game, building on his 1,102 yards with 11 TDs and 4 picks. The key factor in this game is Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty who averages 10.5 yards per carry and has 9 TDs on the year thus far. He's going to run wild all season, including this game. Broncos win 34-24.

#19 Illinois at #9 Penn State

     The Fighting Illini are unbeaten and looking for another road upset as they travel to Happy Valley to take on the Nittany Lions. Penn State looked a bit shaky a couple weeks ago against Bowling Green, but bounced back with a 56-0 win against Kent State last week. Their defense will need to pressure Luke Altmeyer as he has been picking teams apart this season. The Nittany Lions are solid on defense and the offense is starting to click more and more. I like them to win at home, but don't be surprised if Illinois keeps this close. Penn State 31, Illinois 21.

#2 Georgia at #4 Alabama

     One of the most anticipated matchups of the year sets the Bulldogs in Tuscaloosa for a duel with the Tide. This rematch of last year's SEC Championship (along with many others) will give the winner a big leg up in race back to that championship game. Georgia has looked solid apart from their Kentucky game, but their defense is really going to be tested with Alabama's high-powered offense. The Dawgs have good weapons on offense, but I think Alabama's explosive plays will be the difference-maker in this game. Georgia can't keep up with a too many big plays from the Tide, so give me Alabama with a 30-24 victory.

Nebraska at Purdue

     The Huskers have their first road game of the season as they travel to West Lafayette to take on the Boilermakers. This is an intriguing matchup after the Huskers' first loss of the season, so I'm anxious to see how they respond. Purdue has struggled this year, especially against the run, ranking 132nd in the nation. The Huskers need to establish the run early and keep it consistent all game to help Dylan Raiola. Offensively, the Boilermakers haven't been able to spread it to their receivers much, but Hudson Card is a very capable Quarterback. Ramping up the pressure from the last game will be crucial to winning this game. Huskers run the ball well and win 31-17.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Florida State at SMU - Seminoles 28, Ponies 24.

Arizona at #11 Utah - Utes 30, Wildcats 20.

Fresno State at UNLV - Rebels 23, Bulldogs 21.

Kentucky at #6 Ole Miss - Rebels 40, Wildcats 17.

Minnesota at #12 Michigan - Wolverines 23, Golden Gophers 13.

Arkansas vs #24 Texas A&M - Aggies 24, Hogs 21.

#3 Ohio State at Michigan State - Buckeyes 38, Spartans 17.

Thanks for reading my Week 5 Predictions. Enjoy your College Football Saturday and GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando