Saturday, October 26, 2024

Week 9 Predictions

      Happy Saturday College Football Fans! Week 8 brought us some great games and big statements from teams all across the nation. Unfortunately it did bring us a very disappointing Husker loss, and I think we all need to move past that one quickly. I don't have much to say other than that being a very bad loss in all phases of the game, so we're going to skip over my reflections this week and head straight to the predictions for Week 9. This week has some fantastic conference games and big rivalries, so expect more chaos as we await the first committee rankings on Tuesday following the games this weekend. Enjoy!


Week 8 Results: 13 - 8

Overall Record: 101 - 47


Week 9 Predictions:

#12 Notre Dame vs #24 Navy

     One of my most anticipated games of the weekend kick's off right away after gameday. I'll have this on with the Huskers starting at 11 and I've got Notre Dame on upset watch. The Midshipmen love to cause headaches for the Irish and their fans, most notably my Uncle Joe. This Navy team is susceptible to the run game, which favors Riley Leonard and company, but they are tough to deal with on the offensive side of the ball. The Midshipmen are averaging 44.8 points per game, which is good enough for 4th in the nation. Notre Dame has only played one offense in the top 20 of points per game (Louisville), so look for this to be a more high-scoring affair. The line on this one is Notre Dame by 2 TDs, but I like Navy to cover. If you haven't yet, be sure to watch Navy QB Blake Horvath for a few drives of this game, he's phenomenal. This feels like a pick where I'm playing for the upset, but I'll take the Irish. A few key stops on defense will be needed, but Notre Dame gets it done at Metlife Stadium 27-23.


Washington at #13 Indiana

     Washington has been up and down this season, but traveling across timezones has not been their friend. They've lost to both Rutgers and Iowa on the road in BIG 10 conference play, and now travel to Bloomington (who is hosting College Gameday for the first time ever) and have to take on the red hot Hoosiers of Indiana. Their offense may cool down a bit with star QB Kurtis Rourke out with a hand injury he suffered last week against Nebraska, but I don't think they'll miss too many steps without him. Backup QB Tayven Jackson will get the nod and looked good against the Huskers in the second half. The Hoosiers will likely rely a bit more on their run game, but they're already averaging 7 yards per carry with RB Justice Ellison and 7.9 yards per carry to Iowa's Kaleb Johnson just two weeks ago. Hoosiers win BIG with Coach Corso back in Bloomington 38-17.


Oklahoma at #18 Ole Miss

     The Sooners have not looked good this season, especially on offense where 128th in the nation in Total Offense. They will need to figure out something quick in this game because Ole Miss ranks 2nd in the nation and will put up a lot of points. South Carolina dropped 35 on OU last week, I think Ole Miss could drop 50. Give me the Rebels to win big at home against the Sooner Schooner that is on fire right now. Rebels 52, Sooners 20


Tulane at North Texas

     The Green Wave and Mean Green are outside shots to take that G5 Playoff spot, but a loss in this game would just about guarantee their fate, especially after the fantastic Boise State/UNLV game last night. Nonetheless, these American Conference powers are creeping up behind Army and Navy, looking to earn a spot in the conference title game. Tulane is fairly balanced on offense, but Sophomore RB Makhi Hughes is an absolute baller, rushing for 5.5 yards per carry and 8 TDs so far this year. Chandler Morris leads the air attack for the Mean Green and threw for 445 with 3 TDs and 1 pick in their loss a week ago to Memphis. He'll be up against the 35th best pass defense in the nation, but I like North Texas to bounce back at home and get the win 40-35.


#20 Illinois at #1 Oregon

     The Ducks are now #1 in the AP Poll and that slot has been a revolving door with Georgia, Bama and Texas all losing when in that spot earlier this year. Oregon's star QB Dillon Gabriel is the player to watch because he's been responsible for 19 TDs this season and can pick apart defenses like a pro. Illinois is no easy defense though, especially up front. They average nearly 3 sacks per game and can force a lot of bad throws and turnovers with their pressure. Oregon has found a very balanced attack on offense by letting Junior RB Jordan James run wild the last couple of weeks, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. If he gets another 20 carries today, Oregon wins this one with ease. For the Illini, Luke Altmeyer makes smart throws as well, and he's got two big bodied receivers to toss it to. Pat Bryant (6'3, 200) and Zakhari Franklin (6'1, 190) are two of the best receivers in the conference at providing a large catch radius for their QB. They will need to have a big night and Altmeyer needs to throw it quick because Oregon's pass rush is one of the best, especially at home in Autzen Stadium. Give me the Ducks with a dominant performance on the line of scrimmage to win at home 30-17.


#11 BYU at UCF

     The Cougars had a bit of a scare last week at home against Oklahoma State, but pulled that one out of the fire thanks to the magic of star QB Jake Retzlaff. Now they go on the road to a hungry UCF team that nearly knocked off the Cyclones and have a powerful rushing attack behind Senior RB RJ Harvey. Harvey is toting the pill 6.7 yards per carry with 890 yards and 11 TDs on the season. Ollie Gordon racked up 107 and 2 TDs on his own last week against the Cougar defense, so look for them to try and add extra men to the box to slow down the run game. Jake Retzlaff is my x-factor though, because Rocco Becht was just that last week against UCF. Despite a couple of interceptions, he threw for 274 yards with a TD and rushed for another 97 and 2 TDs. His dual-threat ability gave the Knights headaches all night and Retzlaff can do similar things. His ability to break out of the pocket and extend plays wins BYU the game 33-27.


#21 Missouri at #15 Alabama

     Alabama has lost two games before November for the first time since 2007. An absolutely bonkers stat that shows more than anything the dominance of Nick Saban. The Tide now welcome a Missouri team that is looking for a bit more identity after they fell hard in the polls a couple of weeks ago from their beat down by A&M. This is a good bounce back game for Alabama after losing to rival Tennessee on Rocky Top this morning. However, Mizzou is coming off back-to-back wins. They will be without their leading rusher and the defense has been susceptible to big plays, ranking 73rd in the nation with 26 plays of 20+ yards or more. I think the Tide Roll with a bounce back game for the offense. Alabama 30, Mizzou 14.


#5 Texas at #25 Vanderbilt

     The Longhorns looked shell-shocked while playing against Georgia at home, losing 30-15. Vanderbilt has already knocked off Alabama, and now host Texas to their construction site. The Commodores have a very dangerous man at QB with Diego Pavia. He's the leading rusher on the team with 470 yards to go with his 3 TDs and then throwing for nearly 1,400 yards with 11 TDs and 1 pick. He takes care of the ball with smart throws and they are one of the best offenses on third down. Vanderbilt ranks 6th in the nation, converting more than 52% of their third downs. The Texas defense allows just under 29% of third downs to be converted, so that's the big key in this game. Even Georgia only converted 35% last week, but Diego Pavia is difficult to contain. Texas might have some QB issues too as Quinn Ewers was pulled out for a couple series in favor of Arch Manning against the Bulldogs last week, so Vandy could easily see both QBs and Ewers will be looking over his shoulder if he's not playing well. I would love for lightening to strike twice and for the Commodores to beat another top 5 team this season, but I'll go with the Horns to Hook 'Em. This one is closer than the spread though, so put some respect on Vandy's name. Texas 31, Vanderbilt 20.


Florida State at #6 Miami

     This game originally looked like it would be a matchup with big ACC Championship implications at the beginning of the year, but now it's just an opportunity for Miami to provide a beat down on the disaster that is Florida State Football this season. Cam Ward is on his way to a Heisman Finalist invite and has another prime time slot to dazzle in. FSU is just looking to get out of 2024 and move into the offseason which will include a lot of rebuilding. Ward lights it up for big numbers and Miami wins 37-10.


Michigan State at Michigan

     Sparty is coming off a big win against Iowa while the Wolverines are licking their wounds from a road loss at Illinois. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and a rivalry game could push either one over the edge. Michigan has looked very mediocre at best this season, and still are trying to figure out the QB situation. Michigan State has some playmakers around QB Aidan Chiles, but he's the true x-factor of this game. If he takes care of the ball, Sparty's offense can be deadly. If he does not Michigan could take advantage of some turnovers. Both teams have been horrendous in the turnover category, with Michigan State sitting at -6 and Michigan at -7. I'll take the Wolverines since they're at home, but this will be a grimey BIG 10 game. Wolverines beat Sparty 23-17.


Kansas at #16 Kansas State (Sunflower Showdown)

     The Jayhawks and Wildcats meet for the 122nd time today which ranks them 9th for all-time rivalry meetings. Kansas has really fallen short of expectations, sitting at 2-5 and blowing multiple leads in games so far this season. They're coming off their first win since the opening week, beating Houston 42-14 last week. Unfortunately for them, K-State is starting to figure things out and have had three strong performances since their flop out in Provo. QB Avery Johnson is making much better reads in the pocket and Junior RB DJ Giddens paces a rushing attack that averages over 222 yards per game, best for 9th in the nation thus far. KU has a top tier RB of their own in Devin Neal, but I don't think they'll keep pace or slow down the Wildcats offense. K-State wins the Sunflower Showdown 38-20.


#22 SMU at Duke

     The Ponies are unbeaten in ACC play and have a path to the championship in Charlotte if they keep up their current pace. Duke stands in their way next, and the Blue Devils just beat Florida State for the first time in program history. These teams are very similar on the stat sheet on both sides of the ball, but one in particular could be the back-breaker in this game. The Blue Devils rank 44th in the nation with just 5.6 penalties per game on average, while SMU ranks 129th with 7.9 penalties per game on average. If the Ponies can clean up the flags, they can win this game on the road and set themselves up for a big November run. The QB battle is one to watch with Kevin Jennings and Maalik Murphy, but give me SMU to continue their ACC victory tour. SMU 34, Duke 24.


#3 Penn State at Wisconsin

     A BIG 10 Showdown in Madtown is set to take place under the lights as Penn State visits the now hot Wisconsin Badgers. They've had a lot to jump around about lately in Camp Randall as they've won 3 straight and are averaging 39 points per game in the last three weeks. Penn State is off a BYE week, but James Franklin is 5-6 after BYE weeks coaching at Penn State. Trap game potential with a game against the Buckeyes next for the Nittany Lions, but I think they handle the Badgers. Their defense will cause a more formidable pass rush against Wisconsin and force some turnovers. Nittany Lions 28, Badgers 14.


#8 LSU at #14 Texas A&M

     The Aggies host LSU for an SEC rivalry that gives the winner the inside track to the SEC Championship Game. Both of these squads are unbeaten in conference play, and after being written off early from the Notre Dame loss, Mike Elko has this Aggies Squad as a dangerous playoff lurking team. The only issue is they are hot and cold with their performances. QB Connor Weigman is completing just 61.5% of his passes and has 3 TDs with 4 picks. He did miss a couple of games with an injury, but you never really know what kind of game he's going to play. He's facing a Tigers squad that has 24 sacks on the season and loves to create pressure. This is a much improved defense under Brian Kelley, so look for them to cause havoc despite the 12th man. Offensively, Garrett Nussmeier is quietly having a stellar year in the SEC with 2,222 passing yards, 18 TDs and 6 picks. He doesn't have much of a run game to lean on, so don't be surprised if he's throwing 40+ passes tonight. I like this game a lot and they're usually thrillers. Both teams have a great chance to win this, but give me the Tigers and their pass rush to win in Aggieland. LSU 36, Texas A&M 33.


Nebraska at #4 Ohio State

     The Huskers and Buckeyes both need this win to get a bad taste out of their mouth. Ohio State has been sitting on their Oregon loss for two weeks thanks to their BYE week, while the Huskers are on the road for back-to-back weeks after getting SMACKED by Indiana. The Huskers cannot get anything moving on the ground, which allows the opposing defense to send extra pressure against Dylan Raiola. He's still learning a lot about reading defenses and how best to pick them apart. Protection has become an issue over the last couple of weeks with the Huskers giving up 13 sacks over the last 4 games. Ohio State will look to create pressure and force turnovers, keeping the playmakers on the sideline for the Huskers. Defensively, the Blackshirts were shredded against Indiana. The Hoosiers ran through them with their running back averaging 11.7 yards per carry last week. Now you have Quinshon Judkins and TreyVeon Henderson running at you? Not a great way to bounce back. Huskers need to force some turnovers to have a chance in this one, but hopefully it's not as ugly as last week. Buckeyes 38, Nebraska 7. Prove me wrong Huskers!


Quick Hit Predictions:

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech - Hokies at home after a couple extra days of rest, they win 30-20.

Northwestern at Iowa - This will either be a close, disgusting BIG 10 West type game, or Iowa rolls 38-7 for no reason. Give me the Hawkeyes big at home.

Maryland at Minnesota - The Terps have fallen off this season but built a masterful comeback against the Trojans last week. I do like Minnesota at home following a BYE week though. Gophers win 26-17.

Oklahoma State at Baylor - The Pokes are a train-wreck this year in the Big XII and Dave Aranda is coaching to save his job right now. Give me the Bears at home. Sic'em for 34-30.

Texas Tech at TCU - The Red Raiders fell to Baylor last week in a bit of a stunner while TCU upset Utah late Saturday night for a stunner of their own. This one is a toss up but lots of points. Give me the Frogs 46-42.

Oregon State at Cal - Former PAC-12 foes square off in a non-conference battle. The Golden Bears have dropped 4 straight since starting ACC play, by a combined 9 points. The Beavers are spiraling though, so Cal bounces back 30-17.

Cincinnati at Colorado - The Buffs are getting hot led by Shedeur Sanders and a high-powered offense. Cincy had a big win against Arizona State, but they don't have enough firepower to keep up in this one. Buffaloes continue their rise in the Big XII with a 33-23 win.


Thanks for reading my Week 9 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! GO BIG RED!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Week 8 Predictions

      Happy Saturday Football Fans and welcome to Week 8! The Week 7 slate did not disappoint last week, but we could see even better games this week. Plus, my Huskers are playing so it's already a step up. I will have predictions for all the games you should know about this weekend along with a few of the best bets you can make as part of my "Perfect Parlay" for the week. Enjoy the picks and your college football Saturday.


Week 7 Results: 15 - 4

Overall Results: 88 - 39


Week 8 Predictions:

#6 Miami at Louisville (Battle for the Schnellenberger Trophy)

     The Cardiac 'Canes take their unbeaten record on the road again as Louisville looks to upset the top team in the ACC. There's a pair of Howard's Schnellenberger's actual boots that have been bronzed up for grabs as the two teams honor their former coach. A stellar QB battle will take place as Cam Ward and Tyler Shough sling it all over the place. Ward has more than 2,200 yards with 20 TDs and just 5 picks while Shough has nearly 1,700 yards with 14 TDs and 3 picks. They are both great to watch, and I could see this game with a lot of points. Miami seems like they can't lose this season, so I'll take the 'Canes to win this one 31-21.


Arizona State at Cincinnati

     Ex-Husker Quarterback Jeff Sims is set to start for the Sun Devils, so Cincy once again has an opportunity for turnovers in this one. They're just +1 on the season, but from witnessing the Jeff Sims experience first-hand, that number can increase for a defense quickly. However, Sims does have a very stellar back to rely on in Cam Skattebo. The Senior is averaging just under 6 yards per carry with over 1,000 total yards this season, both receiving and rushing with 8 TDs. He's rushed for 360 yards in the past two weeks and is the game breaker in this one. Give me the Sun Devils behind another big Skattebo performance. Arizona State 26, Cincy 21.


Louisiana at Coastal Carolina

     There's still a lot to be decided in the Sun Belt Conference, and two of the best are set to battle in Conway, SC. The Chanticleers need to bounce back after being crushed by JMU 39-7 last week, while Louisiana handled Appalachian State 34-24. Coastal really struggled to get their run game going, but that will be a big deciding factor in today's game. The Ragin' Cajuns rank 71st in the nation, so there is ground to be gained. I like the Chanticleers coming back home, but this should be a close game. Coastal Carolina wins 28-24.


North Texas at Memphis

     The Mean Green & Tigers are both looking to keep pace with Army & Navy in the American conference race and need this win. Memphis is trying to get back into G5 playoff picture. Both offenses can put up points quickly, and Senior RB Mario Anderson Jr. is a problem to deal with on the Tigers' side. He's rushed for 456 yards with 8 TDs this season, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The Mean Green are led by Chandler Morris on offense, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards, 20 TDs and 7 picks. The Memphis defense is my key to watch in this game. They rank 21st in total defense and have a +8 turnover margin this season. Tigers win it with turnovers 36-24.


#7 Alabama at #11 Tennessee

     It's the third Saturday in October, which means the winner of Alabama & Tennessee gets to smoke victory cigars on Rocky Top this evening. Both teams have struggled the last couple weeks and need this win to stay toward the top of the SEC race with a lot of schedule still left. For Alabama, their offense needs to be more creative. Right now they have two plays: Jalen Milroe run or Jalen Milroe pass to Ryan Williams. They have so many weapons, but being able to get them the ball effectively in space has been very tricky. Tennessee needs to lean on their run game and feed Dylan Sampson to take pressure off of QB Nico Iamaleava. Sampson averages 5.9 yards per carry and has rushed for 100+ in every game this season separate of Oklahoma and has racked up 15 TDs. The rest of the Vols' offense has not done much in recent weeks so this game is all about who gets out of the funk quicker. I am not fully convinced on either squad yet, but I'll take the tide to win at Rocky Top. They have too much dominance in this rivalry, but this should be a good one. Roll Tide 30-24.


#12 Notre Dame at Georgia Tech

     The Fighting Irish travel to Atlanta to take on the very upset-minded Rambling Wreck. The Yellow Jackets have been battle tested throughout the ACC thus far in the season, but Notre Dame is looking to stay in the playoff hunt and needs quality wins. Georgia Tech ranks 23rd in the nation against the run, so Riley Leonard and crew will have their work cut out for them. Defensively is where Notre Dame holds the edge, especially with 16 sacks on the season. They need to find a way to get pressure though because they've only given up once sack all season, that's the best protection in the nation. Haynes King is out again this week with an injury, but Irish need to be careful in this one because GT can get their offense moving quick if you don't get them off script. I'll take the Irish close on the road 28-20.


#24 Michigan at #22 Illinois

     The Wolverines are trying out a third QB in Senior Jack Tuttle as they travel to Champagne to take on Illinois. Michigan is coming off a BYE and Illinois is coming off a 1-point OT Thriller after nearly losing to Purdue. The Big Blue still have a dominant defense, but Luke Altmeyer has been hot all season long. He still has just 1 pick while throwing 14 TDs and completing 67.7% of his passes. Turnovers will be the difference maker in this one and the squads are -4 (Michigan) and +4 (Illinois). Can't believe this is the case, but give me the Fighting Illini to beat the Wolverines. Illinois wins at home 27-24.


Colorado at Arizona

     The Buffs travel to the desert to take on Arizona in an offensive shootout waiting to happen. Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs average nearly 400 yards per game and Arizona has potential to do the same. Both teams feature two of the best wideouts in the nation with Travis Hunter and Tetaiora McMillan. We could even see them line up against each other when Travis Hunter is on defense. Coming into the season, I had high hopes for the Wildcats' offense, but Noah Fafita has struggled with turnovers, throwing 9 interceptions so far this year. Give me the Prime Time Buffs to win on the road 34-31.


#8 LSU at Arkansas (Battle for the Golden Boot)

     The Tigers and Hogs battle for the Golden Boot trophy in the shape of the two states of Arkansas and Louisiana. The Tigers are coming off a big win at home against Ole Miss, but now deal with an Arkansas team that has already knocked off Tennessee a couple of weeks ago and are healthy off a BYE. Garrett Nussmeier is basically all of the offense for LSU as their run game has been less than mediocre this season. The Hogs' defense allows just 33% of opponent third downs to be converted while the Tigers average a conversion rate of 48%. I've got LSU on upset watch, but they win the Golden Boot by beating the Hogs 26-21.


#17 Kansas State at West Virginia

     The Wildcats are back in the Big XII race despite their beat down to BYU a few weeks ago but have another tough road test at West Virginia. They snuck out a late game victory against Colorado in Boulder last week and now head the other direction to the Appalachians. West Virginia has been a tough team all season long, but gave up some games with poor defensive tackling late in the game. You need everyone on your defense to tackle if you want to beat K-State, because the Wildcats average nearly 250 yards per game on the ground. Junior RB DJ Giddens made Colorado's defense look like swiss cheese last week with 182 yards on the ground by himself. I like West Virginia to hang around, but much like their game against Iowa State last week, K-State will pull away at the end with a rugged ground game. Cats win on the road for the second straight week 27-14.


#1 South Dakota State at #2 North Dakota State (Battle for the Dakota Marker)

     The two best FCS teams meet in the Fargo Dome for a Dakota Duel leading to the inside track to the #1 seed. Both teams have been rolling through their schedules since losing openers to FBS opponents. This is always a fun game to watch and is the first meeting between these two in a prime time slot on ESPN. Always love the Bison until they play my home state team. GO JACKS! SDSU wins the marker 37-34.


#5 Georgia at #1 Texas

     The Bulldogs and Longhorns meet for the first time as SEC opponents. Texas looks to roll with Quinn Ewers spinning the rock as he is back in his second game from an oblique injury. The offense has so many dynamic players and Georgia's defense will be tested once again. They were gashed by Alabama early in that game in Tuscaloosa, so look for them to put early pressure on Ewers to try and counter that. Offensively, it lies upon the shoulders of Carson Beck. I never have been very impressed by him as it's typically the weapons he has around him, but he'll need to make plays on his own in this game if they want to win. If Carson Beck can make some key plays with his legs, that will keep Texas' defense on their heels and open up more passing lanes. The Longhorns have all the hype and all the belief that they are the best team. Now is the time to prove it, but UGA doesn't lose often. Give me the Horns to stay unbeaten. Hook 'Em for 34-30.


Nebraska at #16 Indiana

     The Huskers are back in action against the undefeated Hoosiers on the road. Nebraska has not beaten a ranked team on the road since 2011, so history will need to be changed for the Huskers to win this game. Luckily, they've got a top notch defense and are fresh off a BYE week for an offense that needed to gather itself. The Blackshirts have yet to give up a rushing TD on the season, and slate up against the Indiana offense ranking 4th in the nation in total yards. They have not played much competition though, so this is arguably the first real test for the Hoosiers. Former JMU Coach Curt Cignetti now leads Indiana and has quickly brought his winning culture to Bloomington. This team is nasty up front, averaging over 5 yards per carry, very well disciplined, averaging just 5.8 penalties per game and they do not let off the gas. Nebraska needs to protect Dylan Raiola in this game and give him clean lanes to pass in. Husker Wideouts needs to create separation and be more aggressive like earlier games in the season. Without key offensive production, Nebraska won't be able to keep pace in this game, even with a solid performance from the Blackshirts. This is one of the games that has made me nervous on the schedule, so I hope I'm wrong. Indiana defeats Nebraska 27-21. I'll be cheering for the road upset so GO BIG RED!


Quick Hit Predictions:

Virginia at #10 Clemson - The Cavs couldn't quite hang on against the Cardinals last week and now travel to Death Valley against a Tiger team that is ROLLING. Clemson 40, Virginia 10.

Wisconsin at Northwestern - Badgers are starting to figure things out on offense and have dominated lower level opponents. Wisconsin 38, Northwestern 10.

South Carolina at Oklahoma - Gamecocks nearly mounted a comeback against Alabama and Oklahoma still doesn't have much for offense. Give me Rocket Sanders with a big game for the Gamecock victory 25-20.

USC at Maryland - Trojans are not adjusting well to BIG 10 play and now have to travel across the country to take on the Terps. Talent will win out here, but keep an eye on this game if Maryland gets some turnovers. Fight On as USC wins 33-24.

UCF at #9 Iowa State - The Cyclones are quietly rolling through the Big XII and have a favorable schedule to get to the Championship with little resistance. This defense is legit and they shut down UCF for a 27-14 victory.

Iowa at Michigan State - Somehow the Hawkeyes have an offense that can score, despite Cade McNamara being very limited by the forward passing concepts of modern college football. Kaleb Johnson is a menace though, and he'll rumble for a couple more scores. Iowa 28, Michigan State 14.

#21 SMU at Stanford - The Ponies are getting hot and could find their way into the ACC Championship if they keep on this pace. Give me more of SMU, they win 33-14 on the Farm.

TCU at Utah - Frogs off a BYE after getting smacked by Houston, Utes off the upset from Arizona State. Both teams need it, but I'll take Utah at home 20-13.


The Perfect Parlay:

1. Army -16 at home against East Carolina. The Black Knights have only one game on the season that has been within 20 points and that was their 17-point win against FAU. East Carolina gave up 55 to Charlotte two weeks ago ahead of their BYE. Don't mess with the military men, Army covers easy.

2. Navy -16 at home against Charlotte. Much like their rivals, the Midshipmen have just one game that was within two scores, their 12-point shootout with Memphis. Every other game has been dominated by the Mid-shipmen, and Charlotte gives up an average of 31.7 points per game. Navy also covers easy.

3. Iowa State - 13 at home against UCF. The Cyclones defense has been dominant this season, giving up just 11 points per game. The Knights of UCF have scored just 13 in each of their last two games. Combined with the offensive weapons Iowa State has and I like this cover by two TDs.


Thanks for reading my Week 8 Predictions and I hope you enjoy all the great football coming your way today. GO BIG RED!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Week 7 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 7 of College Football and we've got one of the best slates of games in years! The Huskers are on a BYE this week, but there is so much action set to take place in the world of college football today. I've got a full list of predictions for you, but first is my breakdown of the Huskers' victory at home over Rutgers last week. This is a jam packed post, so read on and enjoy your college football Saturday!


     The Huskers head into the BYE week victorious as they held off the Scarlet Knights last week in Memorial Stadium. It was not an overly exciting game by any means, but the Blackshirts stood strong to help the struggling offense and the Huskers earned a much needed BIG 10 win. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown for this game below.

GOOD: The Blackshirts and Brian Buschini. Starting with the Husker defense, the Goal line stand in the third quarter was incredible, and I had a great view of it from Row 6 in South Stadium. The Blackshirts controlled the line of scrimmage after Rutgers ran well early in the game, and they kept a lot of pressure on QB Athan Kaliakmanis as they sacked him 4 times. They still have yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season and locked up one of the best backs in the nation as Kyle Monangai rushed for just 78 yards. They'll need to keep this up as the back half of the schedule becomes very tough for the Huskers. Now to my MVP of the game, Brian Buschini had a day. The newly crowned BIG 10 Special Teams player of the week showed he is one of the toughest guys on this team after getting hit on the first punt of the game and was visibly injured every time he gingerly walked onto the field. Despite being banged up and having a severe lack of protection, he booted 5 punts for 251 yards (50.2 yard average) with 2 downed inside the 20 yard line and an absolute BOMB to flip the field with 4 minutes left after sending it 69 yards to the Rutgers 11. Last but not least, he completed a 30 yard pass on a beautifully designed fake punt. The pass was the best one of anyone on the field all day and Buschini is the only bright spot in a very dark and dismal special teams room.

EXPECTED: Freshman struggles for Dylan Raiola. The Husker offense looked very sluggish on Saturday, and Dylan Raiola showed some struggles you would expect from a true freshman QB. Greg Schiano is a great defensive coach and was disguising a lot of different coverages which seemed to cause a lot of confusion for Raiola. He completed a season low 48.1% of his passes for just 134 yards and 1 pick. Raiola was also sacked 4 times due to the coverage by Rutgers and overall this was not a great game for him. That's going to happen, this offense still has a lot of growing to do before 30 points per game is a consistent mark. There were a few throws I expect Dylan to learn from though, especially the few where he nearly killed his wideouts by throwing them into a defender over the middle. It didn't seem like he was making the reads as quickly as the first few games of the season, and I'm sure the defensive scheme was not easy to decifer. Unfortunately I doubt this will be his only struggle game, but knowing him from his recruitment, he'll take a lot of notes and build from those mistakes quickly.

BAD: Protection and communication. Both offensively and on special teams, the protection of Raiola and Buschini were atrocious. Dylan had his own issues as mentioned above, but he was sacked 4 times and the run game mustered just 2.3 yards per carry. There was no push up front which really limits this offense. On special teams, it was very clear from my vantage point in the stands when and where the Rutgers defender would be blitzing from on the punts in order to block them, yet I saw no one point, talk or communicate in any way to their teammates that he should be blocked. As a coach, lack of communication on the field from your team is one of the most frustrating things to occur. If the Huskers don't learn to communicate better on special teams and the offensive line, struggles will continue.


Week 6 Record: 12 - 5

Overall Record: 73 - 35


Week 7 Predictions:

South Carolina at #7 Alabama

     One of last week's biggest upsets was the mighty Crimson Tide of Bama falling to Vanderbilt. The most unlikely of upsets, but something that you don't want to follow on the schedule. South Carolina got stomped themselves as they mustered just 3 points against the Ole Miss Rebels last week. Now they have to travel to Tuscaloosa to square off a pissed off Alabama? Not ideal, but you've gotta play who is on your schedule. The Gamecocks do have a formidable pass rush though, and Bama gave up a couple sacks to Vandy last week with a solid pass rush. That might be one of the few ways to slow down this offense though, as I expect Alabama to get reset very quickly and bring some firepower on offense. Expect a much better game from Jalen Milroe if he can stay protected. The most important thing for Alabama is to figure out the defensive gaps that have plagued them over the last 6 quarters of football. Since halftime of the Georgia game, Alabama has given up 67 points. I think South Carolina could have some success if Rocket Sanders can break free, but give me the Tide in a bounce back game 31-14.


Washington at Iowa

     The Huskies just knocked off Michigan as part of the weekend of upsets, but now travel to the heartland as they square up against the Hawkeyes. Washington has been looked past a bit this season after losing to Wazzu and Rutgers early in the year, but both of those were one score games, and Iowa doesn't score many points. They have a powerful rushing attack with Kaleb Johnson, as he averages 7.9 yards per carry and has 10 TDs on the ground this year. Washington did allow 174 rush yards on the ground to Michigan, but much like the Hawkeyes, they are one dimensional, so the rest of the offense should be limited no matter what. Cade McNamara has really struggled this season, and now faces the 3rd best pass defense in the nation. If the Huskies can slow down Johnson enough and force Iowa to pass, this game will go the way of the Huskies. On the offensive side, they have to navigate a difficult Iowa defense. Will Rogers is an experienced QB from SEC territory, and has 1,625 yards with 12 TDs and just 1 pick on the season. Despite the two time zone travel, even for an 11 AM kickoff, give me the Huskies to win on the road. Bet the under with this matchup, but I'll take Washington 20-14.


#1 Texas vs #18 Oklahoma State (Red River Rivalry)

     Longhorn QB Quinn Ewers is back from injury as Texas and Oklahoma square off for their annual Red River Rivalry (SEC Version). Oklahoma's offense has been the struggle this year, but defensively under Brent Venables, they've been very strong. They allow just 16.0 points per game on average and have 18 sacks racked up through just 5 games. Last year in the Red River Rivalry, OU sacked Quinn Ewers 5 times, so expect them to bring lots of pressure again today. Speaking of Ewers, as mentioned, he's cleared to play after missing the last couple of games with an oblique injury. He plugs back into an offense that has been firing on all cylinders this season, averaging over 500 yards per game and 45 points per game. Oklahoma will slow them down and this game gets crazy sometimes, but I'm not sure Jackson Arnold and the very limited receiver room can keep pace all game with Texas who will find the endzone eventually. Give me the Horns in a tough battle as they pull away late for a 30-20 win.


#4 Penn State at USC

     The Nittany Lions make a cross country trip out to the Coliseum to take on the Trojans who are still adjusting to rugged BIG 10 play following a loss to Minnesota. The Gophers made life very difficult for Miller Moss by controlling the line of scrimmage early and deflecting 8 passes while intercepting 2 others. Penn State has not been extremely dominant in terms of scoreboard victories, but they do control the game and it starts up front. This is one of the more dynamic offenses on their schedule though, and I would expect these two QBs to ball out. Miller Moss has a tremendous amount of weapons Ja'Kobi Lane, Zachariah Branch, Kyron Hudson and many more. Penn State's defense has experience, but this amount of weapons will give anyone headaches. Penn State can win this game with Drew Allar commanding the offense. Nick Singleton will pace things in the run game, but not turning the ball over is where Drew Allar excels. He has just 3 interceptions in his career, and needs to keep that stat in similar shape if they want to win on the road. I think Penn State will out physical USC and win 33-24.


Stanford at #11 Notre Dame

     The Trees travel to South Bend as the annual rivalry game against Notre Dame and the Fighting Irish. The Cardinal have been stomped on by Clemson and Virginia Tech in ACC play the last couple of weeks so not great momentum coming into this game. Last year's game on the Farm wasn't particularly close as the Irish won 56-23, but Stanford did win the last battle in South Bend 16-14. I expect Notre Dame to come out running the ball with Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love who both average over 6 yards per carry and have combined for 12 TDs so far this season. The Cardinal are strong against the run, ranking 13th in the nation and allowing fewer than 90 yards per game. Should be a fun battle, but give me Notre Dame 28-14.


California at #22 Pitt

     The Golden Bears blew a 25 point lead against Miami at home last week and now travel all the way east to take on a Pitt team with one of the most underrated offenses in the nation. The Panthers currently rank 4th in the nation with 522 yards per game on average and put up 45.6 points per week. The Golden Bears were shredded in the second half and especially the 4th quarter by Cam Ward and the Miami offense. I think this Cal team has a lot of potential and can certainly cause upsets, but this one will be tough on the road. The Cal defense has a lot of takeaways and added a couple more last week against Miami. If Pitt QB Eli Holstein can keep control of the rock, he's got a great weapon in Konata Mumpfield who averages 18.5 yards per catch. Give me Pitt to keep winning and move to 6-0 after a 35-27 home win.


Arizona at #14 BYU

     Much like Pitt, the BYU Cougars are a surprise unbeaten through the first part of the season and are one of the leaders in the Big XII. Arizona comes into LaVell Edwards Stadium following a home loss to Texas Tech. QB Noah Fifita has looked very much out of rhythm this season, and now faces a BYU team ranking 24th in pass defense, allowing just 171 yards per game. Star wideout Tetairoa McMillan is still a handful to deal with, averaging 17.9 yards per catch. He's about the only weapon on a struggling Arizona offense, so look for the Cougars to key on him. Offensively, all eyes will be on BYU QB Jake Retzlaff, who has thrown for more than 1,200 yards with 12 TDs and 5 picks. He's also the leading rusher on the team, so is just a headache all around for opposing teams. This game will be determined on turnovers, so watch for the defenses to be aggressive in the passing game. I like the Cougars at home for a 23-20 victory.


Florida at #8 Tennessee

     The Gators and Vols square off in Rocky Top for their annual rivalry. Tennessee is coming off the heels of their loss on the road to Arkansas, and now host a Gators squad they've only beaten twice since 2004. This is a game Tennessee cannot lose, but Florida likely has other plans. They're coming off a solid win against UCF last week and 13 sacks on the season so they still get after QBs. Tennessee has given up 10 sacks this season, and Nico Iamaleava has struggled in the last couple weeks against Oklahoma and Arkansas being sacked 7 times in those two games combined. He's been holding the ball a little bit longer and opposing defenses have taken advantage by applying pressure. This is almost always the game that Tennessee flops in this season, and losing to Florida in this scenario would likely dash their playoff hopes pretty hard. I think they can bounce back from their loss last week, but they need to protect the QB. Give me the Vols with hesitation to win 33-28.


#9 Ole Miss at #13 LSU (Magnolia Bowl)

     Ole Miss and LSU meet for a classic SEC rivalry under the lights in Death Valley. Last year's game was a 55-49 shootout between Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels. Daniels is lighting up NFL scoreboards now, but Dart has one more shot at the Tigers. LSU is coming off a BYE week though, and has been able to watch a lot of film from Ole Miss the last couple weeks. The Rebels bounced back quick from their stumble against Kentucky, playing a much faster pace game against South Carolina. I expect another shootout as Garret Nussmeier has taken the offensive lead for the Tigers and has 15 TDs with just 4 picks so far. Whichever defense can force turnovers wins this game. This is a tough pick, but it's almost impossible to win as a road team in Death Valley at night. Give me the Tigers at home in a thriller 37-35 victory.


#11 Iowa State at West Virginia

     The Cyclones travel to Coal Country as the Mountaineers will wear a special blackout jersey to honor the coal miners. Iowa State has very quietly formed one of the most balanced teams you'll see in College Football. They have just under 1,000 rush yards on the season, just over 1,200 passing yards and score an average of 31.2 points per game. Defensively, they do struggle against the run which favors West Virginia, but rank 5th in pass defense while also allowing just 10 points per game. West Virginia has bounced back from early season blunders by smacking Oklahoma State 38-14 last week. Both of these teams sit at 2-0 in Big XII Conference play, so a win tonight will be a big boost for the potential Playoff BYE with the conference crown. The Mountaineers will be ruckus tonight and I expect a defensive slug fest as they look to get pressure on Rocco Becht. Oddly enough, Becht's father is a West Virginia football legend and will be honored at tonight's game. His son will be honored after the game though, and I think Becht leads this team to a Big XII win under the lights. Give me the Cyclones to win 24-20.


#18 Kansas State at Colorado

     The Buffs are coming off a BYE and now host one of the best rushing teams in the nation. We saw Colorado out physical UCF a couple of weeks ago, but K-State is a different beast. Avery Johnson may struggle at times in the passing game, but his ability to break games open with his legs is unmatched. The key in this game will be if K-State can limit the big plays from Colorado. The Wildcats typically dominate time of possession, but this year rank in the mid-90s, just a couple of spots ahead of Colorado. If they can keep the ball out of the hands of Shedeur Sanders, they have a good chance to grind out this game. However, Travis Hunter is an absolute ball hawk on defense, and will look to force turnovers. I trust K-State to be the more consistent team, so I'll pick the Wildcats to win 27-21 on the road. This could easily fall in favor of the Buffs though.


#2 Ohio State at #3 Oregon

     Gameday is set up in Eugene as the Buckeyes and Ducks square off as BIG 10 foes for the first time. Ohio State has not been tested much this season, but Oregon's defense will change that narrative very quickly. Dan Lanning's crew allows just 17.0 points per game and love to create havoc in the backfield by racking up 16 sacks through the season thus far. Ohio State has every weapon imaginable on their offense, but the most dangerous in my opinion is true freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith. He's racked up 453 yards on just 23 catches for an average 19.7 yards per catch with 6 TDs. Most of the time he needs just 1 hand to catch these passes and Oregon will have all their hands full with him. Offensively, Oregon has been a bit off pace at times, but their steady hand as been Junior RB Jordan James. He averages 6.3 yards per carry for the Ducks and could be the game breaker for the Ducks' offense. Ohio State has a lot of speed everywhere on the field, but the best way to slow that down is to chew clock with the run game. If Oregon can get James running well early, this could be a long day for the Buckeyes. I like this Oregon team a lot, but they've had struggles in these big games if you look back to when they played Washington last season. Give me the Buckeyes to give them a proper BIG 10 welcome with a 34-28 victory.


Quick Hit Predictions:

#10 Clemson at Wake Forest - Tigers continue to roll 38-10.

Purdue at #23 Illinois - Boilerdown and down bad, Illini 35, Boilermakers 10.

Cincy at UCF - Turnovers for UCF let Cincy win 27-21 on the road.

Syracuse at NC State - Kyle McCord has a very big night, 'Cuse win 40-21.

Louisville at Virginia - Cards are spiraling and Virginia is playing very solid defense. Cavs 28-20.

Washington State at Fresno State - Both teams off a BYE, Coogs bounce back first. 31-23 Wazzu.

Wisconsin at Rutgers - Rutgers needs to run the ball, otherwise they lose. I'll take them at home because I still don't trust Wisconsin. Scarlet Knights 23, Badgers 17.


Thanks for reading my Week 7 Predictions and enjoy this wonderful day of College Football!



#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Week 6 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 6 of College Football as we turn the calendar to October! This is where some of the best football is played in my opinion, as the season is in full swing, we've got full slates of conference matchups and some fantastic fall weather. I'll have all the predictions you need following my breakdown and reflections of the Huskers' win at Purdue. As usual, I will use my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown for the game. Lots to get to this week, so let's dive in!


     The Huskers looked like two completely different teams during the first half and second half against Purdue last week. Luckily the second half team understood how to play football as they ended up winning 28-10 in their first road test of the season. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown from what I saw last week.

GOOD - Between the 20s offense. The Huskers racked up 418 total yards with 25 first downs in this game, driving the ball down the field very easily for a majority of the game. The run game didn't get quite as much traction as I was hoping, but still had plenty of open lanes and averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Jacory Barney Jr. also gets a shoutout in this category as the leading rusher and his incredible speed that gets him around the edge. Love how the coaches are starting to work him into the offense, he will be a big time weapon for the Husker offense. Now they just need to score once they get into the Redzone.

EXPECTED - A slow start. The Huskers haven't really had issues with slow starts yet this season, but old habits die hard as the 1st half ended in a 0-0 tie with multiple missed and blocked field goals. The most frustrating part of the slow start is when you can feel it coming. Watching the first couple drives just made my stomach sink because I knew this game was not going to look pretty. Hopefully the Huskers can start with more of a spark today.

BAD - Kicking and the BIG 10 Referees. First of all, I'm not one to complain about officials often, but this is the second time in the first half of the season I've made comments on this blog about officiating issues. I don't think I've ever seen a game with as many flags as Nebraska and Purdue had. While many of the Pass Interference calls were warranted, many were not, especially the offensive pass interference that took a TD off the board. There was only 1 BIG 10 game that had fewer than 10 penalties over the weekend and with 24 flags thrown in the Nebraska/Purdue game, it just gets excessive. Combining the many flags with a HORRENDOUS special teams unit, headaches ensue. I can't be convinced that in today's world of NIL with college football, it can't be more than $30-40k to get a decent division 1 kicker. I'm not sure how this unit could look any more out of sorts, but then you add in issues from the snapper and we're at a point where I never want to attempt a kick again. 4th and 2 or 4th and 20, just go for it. If the ball is outside of the 10 yard line, the Huskers should never kick.


Week 5 Results: 11 - 3

Overall Results: 61 - 30


Week 6 Predictions:

#9 Missouri at #25 Texas A&M

     The Tigers are on the road against the Aggies who are starting to find their footing under Mike Elko. Mizzou hasn't had a difficult schedule, but were tested against Boston College, and Vandy took them to double OT. The Tigers need to start playing like a top 10 team if the SEC Championship and the Playoffs are on their list, this would be a good week to start. One of the most ULTIMATE trash talks I've ever seen ahead of a game has taken place with A&M defender Will Lee III left an Aggies blanket in the hotel for Mizzou wideout Theo Wease Jr., saying to get use to the blanket because it would be real today.  Missouri has not been as dynamic on offense as we've expected from their passing attack this year, but that should change with motivation like this blanket stunt. I'm anxious to see this battle in the secondary, but give me the now extra motivated Tigers to win 30-27.


SMU at #22 Louisville

     The Cards are coming of their first loss of the season to Notre Dame and the Ponies are coming off a monster win on the road at Florida State. Now the Seminoles aren't the team of last year, but SMU SMACKED them, and are building a lot of momentum behind Sophomore QB Kevin Jennings. He's thrown for 733 yards and 6 TDs with just 1 pick. He's taken over the starting spot from Preston Stone, and Senior RB Brashard Smith has been pacing the run game with 509 yards, 7 TDs and 7.3 yards per carry. If they can get balance on offense early in this game, Louisville could be in trouble. The Cardinals had opportunities in South Bend last week, but couldn't quite get in gear to finish drives. Multiple turnovers really hurt their efficiency, and the Mustangs are +7 in the turnover category this season. I think this game will be a bit of a shootout as QB Tyler Shough slings it for Jeff Brohm's offense. He's thrown just 1 pick all year to 11 TDs and is the focal point as the Cards don't run much. I expect a lot of points, but give me SMU to win on the road. Turnovers tell a big story and SMU is a different team with Kevin Jennings running the show. This should be a fun one and I like the upset with SMU winning 37-33.


#12 Ole Miss at South Carolina

     The Rebels are coming off their first loss of the season after running into a brick wall against Kentucky. The Wildcats completely shut down Ole Miss's dynamic offense and held them to just 17 points after they were averaging 55 points in the first few weeks of the season. Jaxson Dart did not look comfortable in the pocket as he was sacked 4 times. South Carolina has a very formidable defensive line, so this could go sideways very quickly for Dart and the offense if they don't protect better up front. Through just 4 games, the Gamecocks average 3.5 sacks per contest and are coming off a BYE week to be fresh in this one. Combined with a true road test for Ole Miss, they need to play at their best if they want out unscathed. I personally was shocked at the struggles of Ole Miss last week, and a couple weeks ago, I was impressed by the fight of South Carolina against LSU despite falling short with a missed field goal. If the Gamecocks can get pressure and knock Dart around, this game could get mucky. Give me Ole Miss to bounce back, but I am nervous about this pick. Rebels 31, Gamecocks 24.


Iowa at #3 Ohio State

     The Buckeyes host the Hawkeyes for a BIG 10 showdown at the Horseshoe. Iowa has always been a team to randomly upset top 10 teams in this setting, but Ohio State doesn't want that to be them again. The Hawkeyes defense isn't quite as dominant as we've seen in years pass, but they are not easy to move on and are one of two teams that have yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season. Ohio State lives off their big plays, so long, grind it out drives have not been much of a focus this year. As the calendar shifts to October, the Buckeyes offense will be tested much more in BIG 10 conference play. This is where Will Howard needs to earn his NIL money and distribute the ball well to his playmakers. Defenses need to focus on making his life difficult because there are too many weapons to shut down on this offense each play. Speaking of weapons, the Hawkeyes really only have one, but Kaleb Johnson is a good one. If you haven't watched him, take advantage of the chance today. He's averaging 8.4 yards per carry with 9 TDs. He'll likely have a tougher day against the Buckeye defense, but is going to be one of the few bright spots for them. Buckeyes win comfortably 34-14.


#11 USC at Minnesota

     The Trojans start off their BIG 10 career by hopping from Michigan, to hosting Wisconsin at home and then back on the road to Minnesota. The Gophers fell just short (with the help of a horrible offsides call with their onside kick) of finishing a comeback win against Michigan, but likely found some momentum in that second half comeback. USC needed a second half comeback to beat Wisconsin at home, and questions are starting to bubble about if they can handle the grind of a BIG 10 slate. Minnesota will try to slow down this game and keep pressure on Miller Moss as they've seen him struggle in the last few week with extra blitz packages from Michigan and Wisconsin. Offensively, the Gophers need to feed star wideout Daniel Jackson. He's the most dynamic player on this team, and with the ball in his hands, good things happen. I still don't have a full read on these teams, but I think USC will out-talent the Gophers by the end of this one. Fight On as the Trojans win 28-13.


#15 Clemson at Florida State

     At the start of the season, this was a game where College Gameday expected to be, but after a very rough start to the season, Florida State just wants to get to next year and forget everything about 2024. The Tigers are on an absolute heater and have dropped 40+ in every game since getting stomped by Georgia to open the year. This is another chance for Clemson to flex all their muscles and put up another big number on the scoreboard. They're the best team in the ACC and have playoff opportunities ahead, I think they're ready to roll and I would expect a lot of points as their offense starts to click under Cade Klubnik. He's thrown for 12 TDs so far this season, and I would expect a few more to be added today. Tigers win big on the road, 45-17.


#10 Michigan at Washington

     A rematch of last year's National Championship game is set in Seattle as Michigan hits the road for a BIG 10 showdown with Washington. The Wolverines have yet to leave home this season, so an away game against the team you beat in the National Championship is a tough task after spending more than a month at the Big House. Washington is not the team of last year, but their defense is still a tough match. The rank 27th in opponent 3rd down conversions allowing just 30.1% of them to be converted. Michigan loves to run the ball, but that's about all they do with Alex Orji at QB. They need to find some more diversity in their offense if they want to compete in the BIG 10 the rest of the season. Washington racked up 521 yards of offense on Rutgers last week, but a few mistakes cost them the game. I think they make a statement at home and Jedd Fisch gets his first big win as the Huskies' coach. Dubs get revenge for the National Championship and win 23-20 at home.


Texas Tech at Arizona

     One of the things I love about the PAC-12 teams coming over to the Big XII are matchups like this one. I like this game a lot because we should see a lot of points, but two teams that just run a lot of tempo and diversity on offense. The Red Raiders have not looked great defensively this season and many folks wrote them off after losing to Wazzu on the road, but they're 2-0 in conference play and scoring almost at will with an average of 41.6 points per game which is good for 16th best in the nation. Arizona is coming off a big time win over Utah on the road, knocking off the former #10 team. Star wideout Tetairoa McMillan has been a bit quiet since his 4 TD game against New Mexico, but I think he finds the endzone in a big shootout today. A classic southwest shootout and don't be surprised to see the Red Raiders getting spicy in this game. Give me Arizona at home, I like them to make an extra play or two and win this barn burner in the desert 48-42. Bear Down!


#8 Miami at Cal

     The Canes travel to Cal in what is the longest distance for a game separate of Hawaii this season. College Gameday is in Berkley for the first time as the Golden Bears get ready for their ACC conference opener. Fernando Mendoza, QB for Cal is going to have an extra weapon today as star RB Jaydn Ott is back to 100% according to Head Coach Justin Wilcox. Ott rushed for more than 1,300 yards and racked up 12 TDs last season, so Miami will have to know where he's lining up at all times because he's a great pass catcher out of the backfield as well. The Canes barely escaped last week after the Virginia Tech Hail Mary was overturned to an incomplete pass after a controversial review. Cam Ward has played like a Heisman caliber player this season, throwing for nearly 1,800 yards with 18 TDs, 4 picks and another 2 TDs on the ground. He'll be up against a Cal defense that ranks 23rd in the nation for total defense and ranks 1st with 10 interceptions on the year. Coming off a crazy game with Virginia Tech and traveling to the opposite side of the country is no easy task, especially since this game kicks off at 7:30 PM Pacific time which is 10:30 PM Eastern time. The Golden Bears fell just short against the Seminoles, but could give Miami some headaches tonight. I'll go with Cam Ward and the Canes to get things done, but I'm all in for the Cal upset tonight. Miami 30, California 24.


Rutgers at Nebraska

     The Huskers have their Homecoming celebration as undefeated Rutgers comes into Lincoln ready to roll. The Huskers are undefeated all time against Rutgers and played them for their homecoming game back in 2017 when I was on the Royalty Court for UNL. These aren't even close to the same teams though, and Kyle Monangai leads a rushing attack that was best in the conference a year ago. So far this season he's racked up 589 yards with 6 TDs on the ground. Nebraska is the other team along with Iowa that has yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season, so the ground game will be a fun battle between Monangai and the Blackshirts. The Huskers struggled against Purdue in the first half last week, especially on special teams. This is a game that will be decided by who can finish drives, because there won't be many of them. Rutgers averages nearly 34 minutes for time of possession per game, which ranks 9th in the country. Dylan Raiola and crew need to make the most of their opportunities as they did well driving the ball last week, but struggled to finish in the redzone. This will be a classic BIG 10 matchup and I think the first team to 20 wins the game. Huskers need to convert drives into points, preferably touchdowns because they cannot kick. Huskers finish today and win 23-21.


Quick Hit Predictions:

Boston College at Virgina - The Eagles have played in back to back close games against non-conference opponents and now travel to a conference opponent coming off a BYE. I want BC to continue rolling, but this is a tough ask. I'll take the Cavaliers with a surprise win, but I'll be rooting for BC. Cavs win 23-21.

Baylor at #16 Iowa State - The Cyclones haven't played a difficult schedule yet this year, but have clobbered everyone but Iowa. Baylor has been so close so many times this year, but can't quite get over the hump. Maybe later this year, but not today. Cyclones win 31-17.

Pitt at North Carolina - The Tar Heels blew a 20-0 lead over Duke last week and had 70 hung on them from James Madison two weeks ago. Pitt is undefeated and coming off a BYE they're looking to start conference play with a big win. Give me the Panthers over the Tar Heels 30-24.

Purdue at Wisconsin - The Boilermakers have fired OC Graham Harrell and will lean on Offensive Analyst Jason Simmons to call the plays. Wisconsin is trying to figure out their identity as well with a backup QB in the lineup and giving up an 11 point lead in the second half to lose at USC last week. I'll take the Badgers at home, but this game could be a toss up in all honesty. Wisconsin 24, Purdue 17.

UCF at Florida - This game could really be the make or break for Billy Napier. UCF is coming off a loss to Colorado where they got pushed around. I think Florida could do similar things oddly enough, and despite winning in the Swamp as a Hog, I don't think KJ Jefferson will be winning today. Gators chomp UCF 33-21.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State - The Pokes may have fallen out of the BIG XII race with back to back conference losses, but a third one would certainly do it. I told y'all at the beginning of the season though that West Virginia would have a tough year, and I do think the Pokes bounce back with this one. Not pretty, but a win is a win. Oklahoma State takes it 27-23.

#4 Tennessee at Arkansas - An easy trap game for the Vols as both Florida and Alabama lie waiting in the next couple weeks, but the real question is if Arkansas can finish the job? They've had opportunities to be 5-0, but slipped last week against A&M and gave the game away on the road at Okalhoma State. Vols stay safe 30-21.


The Perfect Parlay:

1. Indiana -13.5 against Northwestern. The Hoosiers look to go 6-0 with a 3-0 start in conference, and their offense does not care what time that clock says, they're going to score. Combined with Northwestern's lack of offensive attack, I like Indiana winning by 2 or more TDs.

2. Alabama -23 over Vandy. This is an easy hangover game for Alabama after the wild one against Georgia a week ago, but I think weth their poor performance in the second half, Kalen DeBoer will have this team worked and ready to go. Beware Vandy, the Crimson Tide aren't taking it easy in this one.

3. Clemson -14.5 over Florida State. The Seminoles have looked absolutely AWFUL this season and now are rolling out a backup QB sine DJ Uiagalelei is out with an injury. Clemson has been ROLLING teams and I think they win by a lot more than just 15.


Thanks for reading my Week 6 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday. GO BIG RED!


#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando