Week 6 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 6 of College Football as we turn the calendar to October! This is where some of the best football is played in my opinion, as the season is in full swing, we've got full slates of conference matchups and some fantastic fall weather. I'll have all the predictions you need following my breakdown and reflections of the Huskers' win at Purdue. As usual, I will use my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown for the game. Lots to get to this week, so let's dive in!

     The Huskers looked like two completely different teams during the first half and second half against Purdue last week. Luckily the second half team understood how to play football as they ended up winning 28-10 in their first road test of the season. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown from what I saw last week.

GOOD - Between the 20s offense. The Huskers racked up 418 total yards with 25 first downs in this game, driving the ball down the field very easily for a majority of the game. The run game didn't get quite as much traction as I was hoping, but still had plenty of open lanes and averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Jacory Barney Jr. also gets a shoutout in this category as the leading rusher and his incredible speed that gets him around the edge. Love how the coaches are starting to work him into the offense, he will be a big time weapon for the Husker offense. Now they just need to score once they get into the Redzone.

EXPECTED - A slow start. The Huskers haven't really had issues with slow starts yet this season, but old habits die hard as the 1st half ended in a 0-0 tie with multiple missed and blocked field goals. The most frustrating part of the slow start is when you can feel it coming. Watching the first couple drives just made my stomach sink because I knew this game was not going to look pretty. Hopefully the Huskers can start with more of a spark today.

BAD - Kicking and the BIG 10 Referees. First of all, I'm not one to complain about officials often, but this is the second time in the first half of the season I've made comments on this blog about officiating issues. I don't think I've ever seen a game with as many flags as Nebraska and Purdue had. While many of the Pass Interference calls were warranted, many were not, especially the offensive pass interference that took a TD off the board. There was only 1 BIG 10 game that had fewer than 10 penalties over the weekend and with 24 flags thrown in the Nebraska/Purdue game, it just gets excessive. Combining the many flags with a HORRENDOUS special teams unit, headaches ensue. I can't be convinced that in today's world of NIL with college football, it can't be more than $30-40k to get a decent division 1 kicker. I'm not sure how this unit could look any more out of sorts, but then you add in issues from the snapper and we're at a point where I never want to attempt a kick again. 4th and 2 or 4th and 20, just go for it. If the ball is outside of the 10 yard line, the Huskers should never kick.

Week 5 Results: 11 - 3

Overall Results: 61 - 30

Week 6 Predictions:

#9 Missouri at #25 Texas A&M

     The Tigers are on the road against the Aggies who are starting to find their footing under Mike Elko. Mizzou hasn't had a difficult schedule, but were tested against Boston College, and Vandy took them to double OT. The Tigers need to start playing like a top 10 team if the SEC Championship and the Playoffs are on their list, this would be a good week to start. One of the most ULTIMATE trash talks I've ever seen ahead of a game has taken place with A&M defender Will Lee III left an Aggies blanket in the hotel for Mizzou wideout Theo Wease Jr., saying to get use to the blanket because it would be real today.  Missouri has not been as dynamic on offense as we've expected from their passing attack this year, but that should change with motivation like this blanket stunt. I'm anxious to see this battle in the secondary, but give me the now extra motivated Tigers to win 30-27.

SMU at #22 Louisville

     The Cards are coming of their first loss of the season to Notre Dame and the Ponies are coming off a monster win on the road at Florida State. Now the Seminoles aren't the team of last year, but SMU SMACKED them, and are building a lot of momentum behind Sophomore QB Kevin Jennings. He's thrown for 733 yards and 6 TDs with just 1 pick. He's taken over the starting spot from Preston Stone, and Senior RB Brashard Smith has been pacing the run game with 509 yards, 7 TDs and 7.3 yards per carry. If they can get balance on offense early in this game, Louisville could be in trouble. The Cardinals had opportunities in South Bend last week, but couldn't quite get in gear to finish drives. Multiple turnovers really hurt their efficiency, and the Mustangs are +7 in the turnover category this season. I think this game will be a bit of a shootout as QB Tyler Shough slings it for Jeff Brohm's offense. He's thrown just 1 pick all year to 11 TDs and is the focal point as the Cards don't run much. I expect a lot of points, but give me SMU to win on the road. Turnovers tell a big story and SMU is a different team with Kevin Jennings running the show. This should be a fun one and I like the upset with SMU winning 37-33.

#12 Ole Miss at South Carolina

     The Rebels are coming off their first loss of the season after running into a brick wall against Kentucky. The Wildcats completely shut down Ole Miss's dynamic offense and held them to just 17 points after they were averaging 55 points in the first few weeks of the season. Jaxson Dart did not look comfortable in the pocket as he was sacked 4 times. South Carolina has a very formidable defensive line, so this could go sideways very quickly for Dart and the offense if they don't protect better up front. Through just 4 games, the Gamecocks average 3.5 sacks per contest and are coming off a BYE week to be fresh in this one. Combined with a true road test for Ole Miss, they need to play at their best if they want out unscathed. I personally was shocked at the struggles of Ole Miss last week, and a couple weeks ago, I was impressed by the fight of South Carolina against LSU despite falling short with a missed field goal. If the Gamecocks can get pressure and knock Dart around, this game could get mucky. Give me Ole Miss to bounce back, but I am nervous about this pick. Rebels 31, Gamecocks 24.

Iowa at #3 Ohio State

     The Buckeyes host the Hawkeyes for a BIG 10 showdown at the Horseshoe. Iowa has always been a team to randomly upset top 10 teams in this setting, but Ohio State doesn't want that to be them again. The Hawkeyes defense isn't quite as dominant as we've seen in years pass, but they are not easy to move on and are one of two teams that have yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season. Ohio State lives off their big plays, so long, grind it out drives have not been much of a focus this year. As the calendar shifts to October, the Buckeyes offense will be tested much more in BIG 10 conference play. This is where Will Howard needs to earn his NIL money and distribute the ball well to his playmakers. Defenses need to focus on making his life difficult because there are too many weapons to shut down on this offense each play. Speaking of weapons, the Hawkeyes really only have one, but Kaleb Johnson is a good one. If you haven't watched him, take advantage of the chance today. He's averaging 8.4 yards per carry with 9 TDs. He'll likely have a tougher day against the Buckeye defense, but is going to be one of the few bright spots for them. Buckeyes win comfortably 34-14.

#11 USC at Minnesota

     The Trojans start off their BIG 10 career by hopping from Michigan, to hosting Wisconsin at home and then back on the road to Minnesota. The Gophers fell just short (with the help of a horrible offsides call with their onside kick) of finishing a comeback win against Michigan, but likely found some momentum in that second half comeback. USC needed a second half comeback to beat Wisconsin at home, and questions are starting to bubble about if they can handle the grind of a BIG 10 slate. Minnesota will try to slow down this game and keep pressure on Miller Moss as they've seen him struggle in the last few week with extra blitz packages from Michigan and Wisconsin. Offensively, the Gophers need to feed star wideout Daniel Jackson. He's the most dynamic player on this team, and with the ball in his hands, good things happen. I still don't have a full read on these teams, but I think USC will out-talent the Gophers by the end of this one. Fight On as the Trojans win 28-13.

#15 Clemson at Florida State

     At the start of the season, this was a game where College Gameday expected to be, but after a very rough start to the season, Florida State just wants to get to next year and forget everything about 2024. The Tigers are on an absolute heater and have dropped 40+ in every game since getting stomped by Georgia to open the year. This is another chance for Clemson to flex all their muscles and put up another big number on the scoreboard. They're the best team in the ACC and have playoff opportunities ahead, I think they're ready to roll and I would expect a lot of points as their offense starts to click under Cade Klubnik. He's thrown for 12 TDs so far this season, and I would expect a few more to be added today. Tigers win big on the road, 45-17.

#10 Michigan at Washington

     A rematch of last year's National Championship game is set in Seattle as Michigan hits the road for a BIG 10 showdown with Washington. The Wolverines have yet to leave home this season, so an away game against the team you beat in the National Championship is a tough task after spending more than a month at the Big House. Washington is not the team of last year, but their defense is still a tough match. The rank 27th in opponent 3rd down conversions allowing just 30.1% of them to be converted. Michigan loves to run the ball, but that's about all they do with Alex Orji at QB. They need to find some more diversity in their offense if they want to compete in the BIG 10 the rest of the season. Washington racked up 521 yards of offense on Rutgers last week, but a few mistakes cost them the game. I think they make a statement at home and Jedd Fisch gets his first big win as the Huskies' coach. Dubs get revenge for the National Championship and win 23-20 at home.

Texas Tech at Arizona

     One of the things I love about the PAC-12 teams coming over to the Big XII are matchups like this one. I like this game a lot because we should see a lot of points, but two teams that just run a lot of tempo and diversity on offense. The Red Raiders have not looked great defensively this season and many folks wrote them off after losing to Wazzu on the road, but they're 2-0 in conference play and scoring almost at will with an average of 41.6 points per game which is good for 16th best in the nation. Arizona is coming off a big time win over Utah on the road, knocking off the former #10 team. Star wideout Tetairoa McMillan has been a bit quiet since his 4 TD game against New Mexico, but I think he finds the endzone in a big shootout today. A classic southwest shootout and don't be surprised to see the Red Raiders getting spicy in this game. Give me Arizona at home, I like them to make an extra play or two and win this barn burner in the desert 48-42. Bear Down!

#8 Miami at Cal

     The Canes travel to Cal in what is the longest distance for a game separate of Hawaii this season. College Gameday is in Berkley for the first time as the Golden Bears get ready for their ACC conference opener. Fernando Mendoza, QB for Cal is going to have an extra weapon today as star RB Jaydn Ott is back to 100% according to Head Coach Justin Wilcox. Ott rushed for more than 1,300 yards and racked up 12 TDs last season, so Miami will have to know where he's lining up at all times because he's a great pass catcher out of the backfield as well. The Canes barely escaped last week after the Virginia Tech Hail Mary was overturned to an incomplete pass after a controversial review. Cam Ward has played like a Heisman caliber player this season, throwing for nearly 1,800 yards with 18 TDs, 4 picks and another 2 TDs on the ground. He'll be up against a Cal defense that ranks 23rd in the nation for total defense and ranks 1st with 10 interceptions on the year. Coming off a crazy game with Virginia Tech and traveling to the opposite side of the country is no easy task, especially since this game kicks off at 7:30 PM Pacific time which is 10:30 PM Eastern time. The Golden Bears fell just short against the Seminoles, but could give Miami some headaches tonight. I'll go with Cam Ward and the Canes to get things done, but I'm all in for the Cal upset tonight. Miami 30, California 24.

Rutgers at Nebraska

     The Huskers have their Homecoming celebration as undefeated Rutgers comes into Lincoln ready to roll. The Huskers are undefeated all time against Rutgers and played them for their homecoming game back in 2017 when I was on the Royalty Court for UNL. These aren't even close to the same teams though, and Kyle Monangai leads a rushing attack that was best in the conference a year ago. So far this season he's racked up 589 yards with 6 TDs on the ground. Nebraska is the other team along with Iowa that has yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season, so the ground game will be a fun battle between Monangai and the Blackshirts. The Huskers struggled against Purdue in the first half last week, especially on special teams. This is a game that will be decided by who can finish drives, because there won't be many of them. Rutgers averages nearly 34 minutes for time of possession per game, which ranks 9th in the country. Dylan Raiola and crew need to make the most of their opportunities as they did well driving the ball last week, but struggled to finish in the redzone. This will be a classic BIG 10 matchup and I think the first team to 20 wins the game. Huskers need to convert drives into points, preferably touchdowns because they cannot kick. Huskers finish today and win 23-21.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Boston College at Virgina - The Eagles have played in back to back close games against non-conference opponents and now travel to a conference opponent coming off a BYE. I want BC to continue rolling, but this is a tough ask. I'll take the Cavaliers with a surprise win, but I'll be rooting for BC. Cavs win 23-21.

Baylor at #16 Iowa State - The Cyclones haven't played a difficult schedule yet this year, but have clobbered everyone but Iowa. Baylor has been so close so many times this year, but can't quite get over the hump. Maybe later this year, but not today. Cyclones win 31-17.

Pitt at North Carolina - The Tar Heels blew a 20-0 lead over Duke last week and had 70 hung on them from James Madison two weeks ago. Pitt is undefeated and coming off a BYE they're looking to start conference play with a big win. Give me the Panthers over the Tar Heels 30-24.

Purdue at Wisconsin - The Boilermakers have fired OC Graham Harrell and will lean on Offensive Analyst Jason Simmons to call the plays. Wisconsin is trying to figure out their identity as well with a backup QB in the lineup and giving up an 11 point lead in the second half to lose at USC last week. I'll take the Badgers at home, but this game could be a toss up in all honesty. Wisconsin 24, Purdue 17.

UCF at Florida - This game could really be the make or break for Billy Napier. UCF is coming off a loss to Colorado where they got pushed around. I think Florida could do similar things oddly enough, and despite winning in the Swamp as a Hog, I don't think KJ Jefferson will be winning today. Gators chomp UCF 33-21.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State - The Pokes may have fallen out of the BIG XII race with back to back conference losses, but a third one would certainly do it. I told y'all at the beginning of the season though that West Virginia would have a tough year, and I do think the Pokes bounce back with this one. Not pretty, but a win is a win. Oklahoma State takes it 27-23.

#4 Tennessee at Arkansas - An easy trap game for the Vols as both Florida and Alabama lie waiting in the next couple weeks, but the real question is if Arkansas can finish the job? They've had opportunities to be 5-0, but slipped last week against A&M and gave the game away on the road at Okalhoma State. Vols stay safe 30-21.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Indiana -13.5 against Northwestern. The Hoosiers look to go 6-0 with a 3-0 start in conference, and their offense does not care what time that clock says, they're going to score. Combined with Northwestern's lack of offensive attack, I like Indiana winning by 2 or more TDs.

2. Alabama -23 over Vandy. This is an easy hangover game for Alabama after the wild one against Georgia a week ago, but I think weth their poor performance in the second half, Kalen DeBoer will have this team worked and ready to go. Beware Vandy, the Crimson Tide aren't taking it easy in this one.

3. Clemson -14.5 over Florida State. The Seminoles have looked absolutely AWFUL this season and now are rolling out a backup QB sine DJ Uiagalelei is out with an injury. Clemson has been ROLLING teams and I think they win by a lot more than just 15.

Thanks for reading my Week 6 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday. GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando