Happy Saturday College Football Fans! Week 8 brought us some great games and big statements from teams all across the nation. Unfortunately it did bring us a very disappointing Husker loss, and I think we all need to move past that one quickly. I don't have much to say other than that being a very bad loss in all phases of the game, so we're going to skip over my reflections this week and head straight to the predictions for Week 9. This week has some fantastic conference games and big rivalries, so expect more chaos as we await the first committee rankings on Tuesday following the games this weekend. Enjoy!
Week 8 Results: 13 - 8
Overall Record: 101 - 47
Week 9 Predictions:
#12 Notre Dame vs #24 Navy
One of my most anticipated games of the weekend kick's off right away after gameday. I'll have this on with the Huskers starting at 11 and I've got Notre Dame on upset watch. The Midshipmen love to cause headaches for the Irish and their fans, most notably my Uncle Joe. This Navy team is susceptible to the run game, which favors Riley Leonard and company, but they are tough to deal with on the offensive side of the ball. The Midshipmen are averaging 44.8 points per game, which is good enough for 4th in the nation. Notre Dame has only played one offense in the top 20 of points per game (Louisville), so look for this to be a more high-scoring affair. The line on this one is Notre Dame by 2 TDs, but I like Navy to cover. If you haven't yet, be sure to watch Navy QB Blake Horvath for a few drives of this game, he's phenomenal. This feels like a pick where I'm playing for the upset, but I'll take the Irish. A few key stops on defense will be needed, but Notre Dame gets it done at Metlife Stadium 27-23.
Washington at #13 Indiana
Washington has been up and down this season, but traveling across timezones has not been their friend. They've lost to both Rutgers and Iowa on the road in BIG 10 conference play, and now travel to Bloomington (who is hosting College Gameday for the first time ever) and have to take on the red hot Hoosiers of Indiana. Their offense may cool down a bit with star QB Kurtis Rourke out with a hand injury he suffered last week against Nebraska, but I don't think they'll miss too many steps without him. Backup QB Tayven Jackson will get the nod and looked good against the Huskers in the second half. The Hoosiers will likely rely a bit more on their run game, but they're already averaging 7 yards per carry with RB Justice Ellison and 7.9 yards per carry to Iowa's Kaleb Johnson just two weeks ago. Hoosiers win BIG with Coach Corso back in Bloomington 38-17.
Oklahoma at #18 Ole Miss
The Sooners have not looked good this season, especially on offense where 128th in the nation in Total Offense. They will need to figure out something quick in this game because Ole Miss ranks 2nd in the nation and will put up a lot of points. South Carolina dropped 35 on OU last week, I think Ole Miss could drop 50. Give me the Rebels to win big at home against the Sooner Schooner that is on fire right now. Rebels 52, Sooners 20
Tulane at North Texas
The Green Wave and Mean Green are outside shots to take that G5 Playoff spot, but a loss in this game would just about guarantee their fate, especially after the fantastic Boise State/UNLV game last night. Nonetheless, these American Conference powers are creeping up behind Army and Navy, looking to earn a spot in the conference title game. Tulane is fairly balanced on offense, but Sophomore RB Makhi Hughes is an absolute baller, rushing for 5.5 yards per carry and 8 TDs so far this year. Chandler Morris leads the air attack for the Mean Green and threw for 445 with 3 TDs and 1 pick in their loss a week ago to Memphis. He'll be up against the 35th best pass defense in the nation, but I like North Texas to bounce back at home and get the win 40-35.
#20 Illinois at #1 Oregon
The Ducks are now #1 in the AP Poll and that slot has been a revolving door with Georgia, Bama and Texas all losing when in that spot earlier this year. Oregon's star QB Dillon Gabriel is the player to watch because he's been responsible for 19 TDs this season and can pick apart defenses like a pro. Illinois is no easy defense though, especially up front. They average nearly 3 sacks per game and can force a lot of bad throws and turnovers with their pressure. Oregon has found a very balanced attack on offense by letting Junior RB Jordan James run wild the last couple of weeks, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. If he gets another 20 carries today, Oregon wins this one with ease. For the Illini, Luke Altmeyer makes smart throws as well, and he's got two big bodied receivers to toss it to. Pat Bryant (6'3, 200) and Zakhari Franklin (6'1, 190) are two of the best receivers in the conference at providing a large catch radius for their QB. They will need to have a big night and Altmeyer needs to throw it quick because Oregon's pass rush is one of the best, especially at home in Autzen Stadium. Give me the Ducks with a dominant performance on the line of scrimmage to win at home 30-17.
#11 BYU at UCF
The Cougars had a bit of a scare last week at home against Oklahoma State, but pulled that one out of the fire thanks to the magic of star QB Jake Retzlaff. Now they go on the road to a hungry UCF team that nearly knocked off the Cyclones and have a powerful rushing attack behind Senior RB RJ Harvey. Harvey is toting the pill 6.7 yards per carry with 890 yards and 11 TDs on the season. Ollie Gordon racked up 107 and 2 TDs on his own last week against the Cougar defense, so look for them to try and add extra men to the box to slow down the run game. Jake Retzlaff is my x-factor though, because Rocco Becht was just that last week against UCF. Despite a couple of interceptions, he threw for 274 yards with a TD and rushed for another 97 and 2 TDs. His dual-threat ability gave the Knights headaches all night and Retzlaff can do similar things. His ability to break out of the pocket and extend plays wins BYU the game 33-27.
#21 Missouri at #15 Alabama
Alabama has lost two games before November for the first time since 2007. An absolutely bonkers stat that shows more than anything the dominance of Nick Saban. The Tide now welcome a Missouri team that is looking for a bit more identity after they fell hard in the polls a couple of weeks ago from their beat down by A&M. This is a good bounce back game for Alabama after losing to rival Tennessee on Rocky Top this morning. However, Mizzou is coming off back-to-back wins. They will be without their leading rusher and the defense has been susceptible to big plays, ranking 73rd in the nation with 26 plays of 20+ yards or more. I think the Tide Roll with a bounce back game for the offense. Alabama 30, Mizzou 14.
#5 Texas at #25 Vanderbilt
The Longhorns looked shell-shocked while playing against Georgia at home, losing 30-15. Vanderbilt has already knocked off Alabama, and now host Texas to their construction site. The Commodores have a very dangerous man at QB with Diego Pavia. He's the leading rusher on the team with 470 yards to go with his 3 TDs and then throwing for nearly 1,400 yards with 11 TDs and 1 pick. He takes care of the ball with smart throws and they are one of the best offenses on third down. Vanderbilt ranks 6th in the nation, converting more than 52% of their third downs. The Texas defense allows just under 29% of third downs to be converted, so that's the big key in this game. Even Georgia only converted 35% last week, but Diego Pavia is difficult to contain. Texas might have some QB issues too as Quinn Ewers was pulled out for a couple series in favor of Arch Manning against the Bulldogs last week, so Vandy could easily see both QBs and Ewers will be looking over his shoulder if he's not playing well. I would love for lightening to strike twice and for the Commodores to beat another top 5 team this season, but I'll go with the Horns to Hook 'Em. This one is closer than the spread though, so put some respect on Vandy's name. Texas 31, Vanderbilt 20.
Florida State at #6 Miami
This game originally looked like it would be a matchup with big ACC Championship implications at the beginning of the year, but now it's just an opportunity for Miami to provide a beat down on the disaster that is Florida State Football this season. Cam Ward is on his way to a Heisman Finalist invite and has another prime time slot to dazzle in. FSU is just looking to get out of 2024 and move into the offseason which will include a lot of rebuilding. Ward lights it up for big numbers and Miami wins 37-10.
Michigan State at Michigan
Sparty is coming off a big win against Iowa while the Wolverines are licking their wounds from a road loss at Illinois. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and a rivalry game could push either one over the edge. Michigan has looked very mediocre at best this season, and still are trying to figure out the QB situation. Michigan State has some playmakers around QB Aidan Chiles, but he's the true x-factor of this game. If he takes care of the ball, Sparty's offense can be deadly. If he does not Michigan could take advantage of some turnovers. Both teams have been horrendous in the turnover category, with Michigan State sitting at -6 and Michigan at -7. I'll take the Wolverines since they're at home, but this will be a grimey BIG 10 game. Wolverines beat Sparty 23-17.
Kansas at #16 Kansas State (Sunflower Showdown)
The Jayhawks and Wildcats meet for the 122nd time today which ranks them 9th for all-time rivalry meetings. Kansas has really fallen short of expectations, sitting at 2-5 and blowing multiple leads in games so far this season. They're coming off their first win since the opening week, beating Houston 42-14 last week. Unfortunately for them, K-State is starting to figure things out and have had three strong performances since their flop out in Provo. QB Avery Johnson is making much better reads in the pocket and Junior RB DJ Giddens paces a rushing attack that averages over 222 yards per game, best for 9th in the nation thus far. KU has a top tier RB of their own in Devin Neal, but I don't think they'll keep pace or slow down the Wildcats offense. K-State wins the Sunflower Showdown 38-20.
#22 SMU at Duke
The Ponies are unbeaten in ACC play and have a path to the championship in Charlotte if they keep up their current pace. Duke stands in their way next, and the Blue Devils just beat Florida State for the first time in program history. These teams are very similar on the stat sheet on both sides of the ball, but one in particular could be the back-breaker in this game. The Blue Devils rank 44th in the nation with just 5.6 penalties per game on average, while SMU ranks 129th with 7.9 penalties per game on average. If the Ponies can clean up the flags, they can win this game on the road and set themselves up for a big November run. The QB battle is one to watch with Kevin Jennings and Maalik Murphy, but give me SMU to continue their ACC victory tour. SMU 34, Duke 24.
#3 Penn State at Wisconsin
A BIG 10 Showdown in Madtown is set to take place under the lights as Penn State visits the now hot Wisconsin Badgers. They've had a lot to jump around about lately in Camp Randall as they've won 3 straight and are averaging 39 points per game in the last three weeks. Penn State is off a BYE week, but James Franklin is 5-6 after BYE weeks coaching at Penn State. Trap game potential with a game against the Buckeyes next for the Nittany Lions, but I think they handle the Badgers. Their defense will cause a more formidable pass rush against Wisconsin and force some turnovers. Nittany Lions 28, Badgers 14.
#8 LSU at #14 Texas A&M
The Aggies host LSU for an SEC rivalry that gives the winner the inside track to the SEC Championship Game. Both of these squads are unbeaten in conference play, and after being written off early from the Notre Dame loss, Mike Elko has this Aggies Squad as a dangerous playoff lurking team. The only issue is they are hot and cold with their performances. QB Connor Weigman is completing just 61.5% of his passes and has 3 TDs with 4 picks. He did miss a couple of games with an injury, but you never really know what kind of game he's going to play. He's facing a Tigers squad that has 24 sacks on the season and loves to create pressure. This is a much improved defense under Brian Kelley, so look for them to cause havoc despite the 12th man. Offensively, Garrett Nussmeier is quietly having a stellar year in the SEC with 2,222 passing yards, 18 TDs and 6 picks. He doesn't have much of a run game to lean on, so don't be surprised if he's throwing 40+ passes tonight. I like this game a lot and they're usually thrillers. Both teams have a great chance to win this, but give me the Tigers and their pass rush to win in Aggieland. LSU 36, Texas A&M 33.
Nebraska at #4 Ohio State
The Huskers and Buckeyes both need this win to get a bad taste out of their mouth. Ohio State has been sitting on their Oregon loss for two weeks thanks to their BYE week, while the Huskers are on the road for back-to-back weeks after getting SMACKED by Indiana. The Huskers cannot get anything moving on the ground, which allows the opposing defense to send extra pressure against Dylan Raiola. He's still learning a lot about reading defenses and how best to pick them apart. Protection has become an issue over the last couple of weeks with the Huskers giving up 13 sacks over the last 4 games. Ohio State will look to create pressure and force turnovers, keeping the playmakers on the sideline for the Huskers. Defensively, the Blackshirts were shredded against Indiana. The Hoosiers ran through them with their running back averaging 11.7 yards per carry last week. Now you have Quinshon Judkins and TreyVeon Henderson running at you? Not a great way to bounce back. Huskers need to force some turnovers to have a chance in this one, but hopefully it's not as ugly as last week. Buckeyes 38, Nebraska 7. Prove me wrong Huskers!
Quick Hit Predictions:
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech - Hokies at home after a couple extra days of rest, they win 30-20.
Northwestern at Iowa - This will either be a close, disgusting BIG 10 West type game, or Iowa rolls 38-7 for no reason. Give me the Hawkeyes big at home.
Maryland at Minnesota - The Terps have fallen off this season but built a masterful comeback against the Trojans last week. I do like Minnesota at home following a BYE week though. Gophers win 26-17.
Oklahoma State at Baylor - The Pokes are a train-wreck this year in the Big XII and Dave Aranda is coaching to save his job right now. Give me the Bears at home. Sic'em for 34-30.
Texas Tech at TCU - The Red Raiders fell to Baylor last week in a bit of a stunner while TCU upset Utah late Saturday night for a stunner of their own. This one is a toss up but lots of points. Give me the Frogs 46-42.
Oregon State at Cal - Former PAC-12 foes square off in a non-conference battle. The Golden Bears have dropped 4 straight since starting ACC play, by a combined 9 points. The Beavers are spiraling though, so Cal bounces back 30-17.
Cincinnati at Colorado - The Buffs are getting hot led by Shedeur Sanders and a high-powered offense. Cincy had a big win against Arizona State, but they don't have enough firepower to keep up in this one. Buffaloes continue their rise in the Big XII with a 33-23 win.
Thanks for reading my Week 9 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! GO BIG RED!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
No comments:
Post a Comment